Have the Oilers done enough to get Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl a Stanley Cup?
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Ryan S. Clark, NHL reporter
DALLAS — Everything about Dylan Holloway and Darnell Nurse sitting next to each other on an elevated dais at the Western Conference finals said quite a bit before either one of them answered a single question.
Between them, they represent so much of what the Edmonton Oilers have done to build around their generational superstars, Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid.
It’s important to have homegrown talent in today’s NHL, and the Oilers have that. They selected Nurse with the No. 7 pick in 2013 — a year before Draisaitl and two years before McDavid — which shows how long the Oilers have been trying to build through the draft. Holloway, who went 14th in 2020, is a more recent example of Edmonton remaining committed to that approach while simultaneously trying to win in the present.
“It’s cool to come in to a team with such phenomenal players,” Holloway said. “Darnell, Leo, Connor. I want to learn from those guys. They kind of paved the way here. Our team’s this good right now because of them.”
But while nine of the players in the Oilers’ Game 1 lineup were drafted and developed by the franchise, they had to build the rest of the team with intent. They acquired Warren Foegele and Zach Hyman because they needed forwards who could forecheck and score. They added Cody Ceci, Mattias Ekholm and Brett Kulak because they needed to strengthen a defense that was in a consistent state of flux.
The natural inclination could be that having superstars who have yet to hit 30, such as Draisaitl and McDavid, should guarantee a title at some point. But there are no guarantees in the Stanley Cup playoffs.
The Tampa Bay Lightning won consecutive Stanley Cups because they hit on first-rounders Victor Hedman, Steven Stamkos and Andrei Vasilevskiy while striking it rich with later-round picks Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point. The Colorado Avalanche won their title because they were able to build around first-round picks Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar and Mikko Rantanen.
Other teams, such as the Toronto Maple Leafs, show how building around a core of stars can come with many challenges. Despite having Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, the Leafs have been beyond the first round only once since 2016, and there is no guarantee they’re going to win a championship with their current core.
Somewhere in the middle are the Oilers.
Since McDavid and Draisaitl first played together in 2015-16, winning the Stanley Cup has been the expectation. That only intensified once Draisaitl, who was drafted third in 2014, exploded for 50 goals and 105 points in his fourth season. His surge showed the Oilers truly had a pair of generational talents, and not just one in McDavid.
The Oilers have reached the postseason in five consecutive seasons. Altogether, they’ve missed the playoffs only twice in the McDavid-Draisaitl era. Until recently, the biggest highlight of those postseason runs came in 2022, when the Oilers reached the Western Conference finals for the first time since 2006.
If reaching the conference final in 2022 was a lesson, what they’ve done this year could determine if they’re ready to pass the final test by winning that elusive Stanley Cup.
But if they fall short, they may be a step closer toward being the latest cautionary tale of a franchise that built one of the most talented rosters of its generation and failed to win a championship.
“The organization as a whole, especially from when we first got here, has grown and grown,” Nurse said. ” At some points, when you first got here, it was like, ‘Are we ever going to even play in the playoffs?’ And now over the last few years, being a team that’s competing at this time of year is just a testament to ownership and management of where they wanted this team to grow and get to.”
The conversation about how this championship-caliber team was built starts with Oilers general manager Ken Holland bringing up two names from the team’s not-so-distant past.
The 2019-20 season was Holland’s first with the Oilers. The Oilers had several young players, with nine who were drafted by the franchise appearing in more than 20 games during that campaign. The tesm included Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson, who arrived in the Taylor Hall trade with the New Jersey Devils. But as Holland quickly noted, the departures of those two defensemen were the first metaphorical dominos to fall when it came to making the necessary adjustments to keep the Oilers competitive.
“Klefbom’s career was over because of his shoulder, and Adam Larsson, for personal reasons, made a decision that he didn’t want to be in Edmonton anymore,” Holland recalled. “Those are two massive pieces to try to replace. You just peck away.”
Draisaitl, McDavid, Nurse and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins are the only holdovers from that 2019-20 roster. Sam Gagner, who was drafted by the Oilers in 2007, played 36 games that season in his second stint with the club before he was traded to the Detroit Red Wings. Gagner returned for a third tour this season.
So how did Holland and his staff build out the roster? They constructed their current top defensive pairing by using the team’s 2018 first-round draft pick on Evan Bouchard, and then trading for Mattias Ekholm in 2023. It was a deal that saw them part with prospect forward Reid Schafer along with a 2023 first-round pick, a 2024 fourth-round pick and blueliner Tyson Barrie.
Holland’s 34 years with the Detroit Red Wings as an amateur scouting director, assistant GM and GM allowed him to learn something vital from former Wings GM Jim Devellano and coach Scotty Bowman: the importance of having depth players who can check, kill penalties and be trusted to play on either special teams.
“These are all the things that over 82 games are important, but over seven games are really important,” Holland said. “One miscue can change a game and change a series.”
Between Edmonton’s amateur and professional scouting staffs, Holland & Co. were able to identify the set of current NHL players who could fill those needs.
The Oilers’ professional scouting staff identified proven players who could address key needs for the club, such as Cody Ceci, Evander Kane, Brett Kulak, Derek Ryan, Foegele and Hyman, among others.
“I’ve been pretty fortunate throughout my whole career to make the playoffs, and there are some guys who’ve played a lot of games and not made the playoffs,” said Foegele, who arrived via trade in 2021. “It’s understanding that you don’t always get this opportunity. Obviously, the moves that Kenny has made — you understand what’s at stake and that everyone’s here to win.”
The prospects who became full-time roster players — such as Vincent Desharnais, Ryan McLeod, Stuart Skinner and Bouchard — were already in the system when Holland arrived, while Holloway was a pick made during Holland’s tenure.
“I think since being drafted and coming in here, they’ve kind of wanted to engrave a winning mindset,” Bouchard said. “They’ve had a lot of years prior when they didn’t have success. I think the guys here have learned from that, have built from that. They want guys coming in to know that this is a winning organization.”
As with many teams, the trick is finding the balance of using picks to build their system while knowing when to trade them to gain a useful veteran to help win right now.
The Oilers drafted 18 players in Holland’s first three years. Since then, they’ve traded away more than 20 picks and have drafted only seven players.
For example, the Ekholm trade means they don’t have Schaefer, their first-round pick in 2022, along with their 2023 first-rounder (which the Predators used to select defenseman Tanner Molendyk). They also don’t have their 2024 first-round pick because it was used in the three-team trade that brought in Sam Carrick and Adam Henrique at the trade deadline.
Past Oiler trades resulted in other teams cashing in well: The Minnesota Wild landed star defenseman Brock Faber, and the Montreal Canadiens secured defenseman Lane Hutson.
“Some have worked, some don’t … so we’ve traded away lots of futures looking at ‘this is the window,'” Holland said. “So what’s the window? You look at Connor, Leon, Darnell, Ryan. The players that were here, these are their prime years and trying to build a supporting team around them that can make us better.”
Holland said the Oilers felt good about their team. But their 2-9-1 start to this season led to the firing of coach Jay Woodcroft, who was replaced by Kris Knoblauch. The work done by Knoblauch and his staff — which includes Hall of Fame defenseman Paul Coffey — saw the Oilers go from near the bottom of the NHL standings to second in the Pacific Division by finishing 46-18-5 in their final 69 games.
That gave the Oilers the best record in the NHL since Nov. 12, 2023, when they announced they hired Knoblauch. Winning games, however, is only part of the equation. The Oilers returned to being the sort of prolific team that was averaging 3.72 goals per game, with a power play that was operating at 26.9% under Knoblauch.
They also found a way to establish a connection between their defensive structure and goaltending that hadn’t consistently been there in years past. The Oilers allowed 2.68 goals per game after Knoblauch took over, which was the fifth fewest in the NHL. Their penalty kill had a 81.7% success rate, good for seventh, while the 28 shots per game they allowed was also fifth fewest in the league.
“Everyone has had different roads to get to what our team looks like today,” Skinner said. “I think just combining all that experience and we’ve been able to grow with each other this season as well. Looking back on it, we’ve been through a lot obviously as a group. I think being able to go through what we have had to go through has brought us as a team a lot closer and we have a solid brotherhood now.”
All of their success led to a number of questions, the most significant being: Can the Oilers’ translate their regular-season success under Knoblauch to playoff success?
Beating the Los Angeles Kings in five games in the first round while fending off elimination twice to beat the Vancouver Canucks in the second round has helped answer that question. Holland said the key is having that mix of core players starting to hit their prime, with young players carving out their place alongside established veterans.
“But we also know we are in the final four, and these are the four teams that have performed the best to get to this point,” Holland said. “You’re playing the best teams in the world now. One’s going to advance, and one’s going to get shuffled to the sideline.”
The manner in which the Oilers won Game 1 of the Western Conference finals was emblematic of how they’ve tried to build a team around McDavid and Draisaitl.
Contrarians will point out that Draisaitl still scored the Oilers’ first goal, and McDavid scored the winning goal in double overtime. Those who have closely watched the Oilers will point out that the Game 1 win was a group effort.
Edmonton’s current setup meant it could rely upon a penalty kill led by Desharnais, Ekholm, Nugent-Hopkins and Ryan, among others, to blank Dallas on five attempts. Their most notable kill came just 17 seconds into overtime, when McDavid was assessed a high-sticking double minor. The Oilers’ short-handed unit took away time and space en route to running its streak of consecutive kills to 21 entering Game 3.
“I think it’s just about confidence,” said McLeod, who is part of the Oilers’ PK setup. “We’ve been tweaking it all year and we’ve found something that’s been working. It’s confidence and that everyone’s in the right spots and being aggressive, and it’s been working.”
While Bouchard and Ekholm played more than 31 minutes in Game 1, the Oilers have been able to find a balance with their six defensemen. They all played more than 20 minutes that contest, while the Stars have largely relied on five defensemen this postseason.
Prior to Game 6 against the Canucks, Skinner had a 4.63 goals-against average and a .790 save percentage this postseason. Since then, he has a 1.64 GAA and a .918 save percentage in four starts.
This postseason also shows how the Oilers are more comfortable playing in one-goal games. They’ve won six out of their 10 one-goal games, with nine of their past 11 games being decided by a single goal.
Contrast that to the prior two years, which saw the Oilers go a combined 3-6 in one-goal games. Last postseason, they had just one one-goal game in their second-round series against the Golden Knights, while having a lone one-goal game versus the Avs in the conference finals in 2022.
“You’ve got to win tight games,” McDavid said following Game 1. “We’re down to the final four teams and you don’t get to the final four without being a great team. All four teams are solid. Dallas is a great team and it’s going to be tight hockey and we’re comfortable in these games. We’re comfortable in this environment, and I thought we did a great job truthfully all game.”
Winning Game 1 of the Western Conference finals has technically made this the most successful campaign in the McDavid-Draisaitl era, considering that they were swept the last time they were at this stage in 2022.
They’re seven victories away from winning the organization’s first Stanley Cup since 1990. Only five players on the current roster were alive when Mark Messier raised the Cup that spring. In fact, Ekholm was born on the exact day when the Oilers won their last Cup which was May 24, 1990.
Capturing the Western Conference crown and then winning the Stanley Cup would bring an end to all the questions surrounding the Oilers’ strategy in building around Draisaitl and McDavid. From there, the discussion would shift to whether they could win at least one more.
Falling short of the Cup would lead to more questions in what could be an offseason of change.
The Oilers have a 10-player unrestricted free agent class. It’s a group that includes Foegele, Henrique and Desharnais. Decisions will need to be made about how to strengthen the Oilers with what CapFriendly projects to be less than $10 million in cap space.
Even that comes with questions about who would be the one charged with improving the roster; Holland is in the last year of his contract.
And if all of that isn’t enough, Draisaitl will be entering the final season of his contract, too. Whatever he decides to do will have a significant ripple effect throughout the NHL.
“Once you’ve built your team, every year is the year,” Holland said. “You’ve always got to have a look to the future. Then when the year’s over, and you haven’t won the Stanley Cup, you’re gutted. There’s an empty hole in the pit of your stomach. That’s where you have to take the summer whether you’re a player, a coach or manager and you’ve got to regroup and rebuild and play your way back into another opportunity. I think that’s certainly what we’ve done.”
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Greg Wyshynski, Senior NHL writer
Some NHL awards races are actual races. There are leaders, but ones that are looking over their shoulders at a pack of candidates closing in fast.
Other NHL awards races currently look at lot like when Michael Phelps or Usain Bolt would race: Everyone is just going to have to be content with second place because their leads are that insurmountable.
Again, the operative word is “currently.” This is the NHL Awards Watch for January. We have a lot of season to go.
We’ve polled a wide selection of Professional Hockey Writers Association voters anonymously to get a sense of where the wind is blowing for the current leaders. We’ve made sure it’s a cross-section from the entire league, trying to gain as many perspectives as possible.
Bear in mind that the PHWA votes for the Hart, Norris, Calder, Selke and Lady Byng finalists; broadcasters vote for the Jack Adams; and general managers handle the Vezina.
All stats are from Hockey-Reference.com, Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.
Jump ahead:
Ross | Richard | Hart
Norris | Selke | Vezina
Calder | Byng | Adams
Art Ross Trophy (points leader)
Click here for the updated point-scoring standings.
Maurice ‘Rocket’ Richard Trophy
Click here for the updated goal-scoring standings.
Hart Trophy (MVP)
Leader: Kirill Kaprizov, Minnesota Wild
Finalists: Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton Oilers; Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche
A couple of things happened since the last NHL Awards Watch.
After leading the MVP race last month, Kaprizov’s lower-body injury put him out of the Wild lineup. Through Sunday, he had missed six of Minnesota’s 40 games this season. His stats remain stellar — 23 goals and 27 assists for 50 points — but other Hart contenders haven’t spent that kind of time off the ice.
The other significant happening was the entirety of Nathan MacKinnon’s December. The Avalanche star had seven goals and 18 assists for 25 points in 13 games, helping Colorado go 10-3-0 while being named the NHL’s first star for the month. Through 40 games, MacKinnon led the NHL with 65 points and 51 assists and led the Avalanche in scoring by eight points over Mikko Rantanen.
MacKinnon won the Hart last season. The NHL hasn’t had back-to-back MVPs since Alex Ovechkin won the award in 2007-08 and 2008-09. The way MacKinnon’s going, it could happen again.
And yet, Kirill Kaprizov still got the majority of the first-place votes from those canvassed this month.
“In the true spirit of the award, there is just no way Minnesota is anywhere close to the unexpectedly good team they are this year without Kaprizov,” a voter said.
But the MVP race behind the Wild star has changed dramatically. Last month, Kaprizov finished atop the Hart straw poll with 88% of the vote. This month, he earned only 37% of the first-place votes. MacKinnon is right behind him. So are the other players who received first-place votes this month: Draisaitl, Vegas Golden Knights center Jack Eichel, Vancouver Canucks defenseman Quinn Hughes, Tampa Bay Lightning winger Nikita Kucherov and Toronto Maple Leafs winger Mitch Marner. All of them have compelling MVP cases.
“It’s getting crowded at the top, but Kaprizov is still producing more at even strength than any other player,” a Kaprizov voter declared. “MacKinnon has Rantanen, Draisaitl has McDavid, Kucherov is too power-play dependent.”
“I’m picking Kirill Kaprizov,” another noted. “But if Colorado gets their stuff sorted for good and takes off, MacKinnon might run away with it. Central Division is where it’s at.”
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Kirill Kaprizov scores goal for Wild
Kirill Kaprizov nets goal for Wild
MacKinnon won the Hart last year with 51 goals and 140 points. He’s nowhere near that goal pace, but his points-per-game pace (1.63) isn’t far off from his pace in his MVP season (1.71). He was the clear second choice with 26% of the first-place votes. MacKinnon was in the top three in the November Awards Watch, didn’t receive a first-place vote in December and has come roaring back this month.
“MacKinnon’s surge and Kaprizov’s injury changed the face of that Hart race,” a voter concluded.
“He not only leads the NHL in scoring but kept the Avalanche afloat long enough for them to swap out both goalies and look more like a serious contender,” another explained.
Draisaitl was third in the voting (16%), right ahead of Eichel (11%). The Oilers star led the NHL in goals through Sunday with 29 tallies, well ahead of the five players tied with 23 goals. His 59 points were second to MacKinnon for the NHL lead. According to Evolving Hockey, Draisaitl leads the NHL with 22.6 expected goals above replacement.
Draisaitl helped keep the Oilers on point as teammate Connor McDavid dealt with an injury. But McDavid has played only three fewer games than Draisaitl — and trailed him by only five points for the team lead. The season Draisaitl won his only Hart Trophy (the COVID-shortened 2019-20), he played seven more games than McDavid and tallied 13 more points.
Eichel’s having the best regular season of his career. Through Sunday, the 28-year-old center led the Golden Knights with 52 points in 39 games — nearly 20 points clear of the second-highest scorer, Mark Stone (33 points).
That Eichel had played 14 more games than Stone is exactly the point: As Vegas has had more guys out of action than a casino where the house always wins, Eichel has been the constant, playing every game and playing extremely well. His career high for points is 82 in 2018-19 with Buffalo. He’s on pace for over 109 points this season.
“He’s the best player on the best team, but most impressive is how Eichel has emerged as a defensive force,” one Jack backer explained.
They’re right about his defense, which has been improving each season since his 200-foot game earned accolades during the 2023 Stanley Cup run. Internally, Vegas has talked about Eichel getting a Selke push this season. The Knights give up just 2.16 goals-against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 with Eichel on the ice. It should be noted, however, that Kaprizov has him bested in goals-against per 60 (1.88) and expected goals against per 60 (2.05) this season.
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Jack Eichel scores goal vs. Sabres
Jack Eichel scores goal vs. Sabres
Kucherov, who won the Hart in 2018-19, has led the Lightning in scoring all season. Through 35 games he had 55 points, 10 points better than the team’s second-leading scorer Brayden Point.
Marner received a first-place vote for holding down the fort while Auston Matthews was out with an injury. Marner has 56 points in 41 games, 13 more than the Leafs’ second-leading scorer William Nylander, while continuing to be an exceptional defensive forward, too. It’s a heck of a case he’s making in a contract year.
Marner has never finished in the top 10 for the Hart. Quinn Hughes was seventh for the award last season, when he won his first Norris Trophy. So he’s on the radar in the MVP race and pulled in one first-place vote.
In a tumultuous season for the Canucks — from infighting to injuries — Hughes has easily been their best player: 42 points in 34 games, including 34 assists. He’s not leading all defensemen in points nor ice time, but he’s leading the Canucks in both. Hughes leads Conor Garland (29 points) by 13 points for the team lead.
So it’s a very crowded field and could become even more crowded if Connor Hellebuyck starts getting the credit for the Winnipeg Jets‘ outstanding season. The NHL hasn’t had a goalie win MVP since Montreal’s Carey Price in 2014-15.
“I was this close to putting Hellebuyck down for MVP,” said a voter who ultimately broke for Kaprizov instead.
While he didn’t earn a first-place vote, it would be foolish to discount McDavid from the race. He’s won NHL MVP three times and been a finalist for the award six times in 10 seasons. With 54 points in 36 games — his 1.50 points per game average is fourth in the NHL — he’s just a stride behind the rest of these players.
Norris Trophy (top defenseman)
Leader: Cale Makar, Colorado Avalanche
Finalists: Quinn Hughes, Vancouver Canucks; Zach Werenski, Columbus Blue Jackets
No major changes in the Norris race order, which we’re sure will go over well in Vancouver.
Makar’s lead has narrowed from earning 75% of the first-place votes to 58% from our panelists this month. His 49 points in 40 games led all defensemen through Sunday’s games. That’s impressive, but not nearly the total Makar’s incredible start (24 points in 15 games) seemed to portend. He’s a plus-13, skating more on average (25:31) than Hughes (25:08) but less than Werenski (26:28).
After getting dinged for his defense in last season’s Norris voting, Makar’s underlying numbers are strong: The Avalanche are giving up 2.04 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 when he’s on the ice and have an expected goals-against of 2.14. Makar won the Norris in 2021-22 and finished third in the next two seasons.
One Makar voter anticipated some backlash for their choice. “Blah, blah, blah, you only pick points. But the dude is unreal and controls the game from the blue line. A total freak show,” they quipped.
“He leads all blueliners in goals and assists,” another Makar voter noted. “Quinn Hughes’ injury may prove the difference in what was shaping to be a tight race.”
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Cale Makar tallies goal vs. Sabres
Cale Makar tallies goal vs. Sabres
Hughes, last season’s Norris winner, missed four games after Christmas with an undisclosed injury. His return is imminent, which is good news for a Vancouver team whose offense struggled to score just seven goals in his absence. Hughes (42 points in 34 games) had a razor-thin points-per-game lead (1.24) on Makar (1.23) entering Monday’s games.
Another factor for Hughes: He’s second in the NHL in expected goals above replacement (18.5) and has added three wins to the Canucks, per Evolving Hockey. Makar (13.7 xGAR, 2.3 WAR) was a distant fifth in both categories.
Hughes garnered 26% of the votes.
“The Canucks’ performance without the injured Hughes over the past few games underscores his importance to the team and gives him a slight edge over Cale Makar this time around,” a Hughes voter noted.
“It’s hard to argue with a plus-18 goal differential at 5-on-5,” another added.
Hughes play a ton at 5-on-5 (21:12) — more than Makar, in fact (19:34). He doesn’t play much at all on the penalty kill (11 seconds per game), while Makar does (2:12).
Werenski also plays in all three situations for the Blue Jackets. In fact, he plays more than any other skater in the NHL, at 26:28 per game on average. Werenski has 12 goals and 33 assists in 40 games. He entered Monday second to Makar in goals and points on the season.
“More people should be talking about Zach Werenski,” a Makar voter declared.
“The thing that stuck out to me the most [since December’s Awards Watch] was how much better the Blue Jackets are with Zach Werenski on the ice,” a Werenski voter said. “His impact is noticeable on both ends of the ice — the way he drives play, his defensive ability — and that is how he manages to be a plus-player on that bad of a team. He should be rewarded for that.”
“The Columbus Blue Jackets sit nowhere near sniffing-distance of a playoff spot if Werenski isn’t averaging 1.13 points per game while logging almost 27 minutes every night,” another Werenski voter pointed out.
These three defensemen dominated our voters’ ballots. The only other two names mentioned were Winnipeg Jets defenseman Josh Morrissey, who was seventh for the Norris last season after finishing fifth one year earlier; and Washington Capitals defenseman John Carlson, who continues to thrive under head coach Spencer Carbery. He was second for the Norris in 2019-20.
Calder Trophy (top rookie)
Leader: Macklin Celebrini, San Jose Sharks
Finalists: Lane Hutson, Montreal Canadiens; Matvei Michkov, Philadelphia Flyers
Last month, we likened Macklin Celebrini to a marauding T-Rex chasing a Jurassic Park jeep, as Matvei Michkov frantically glanced in his side mirror to discover that objects may be closer than they appear.
In other words, it was only a matter of time before the San Jose Sharks rookie had the body of work voters needed to put him over the Philadelphia Flyers rookie in the Calder race, and here we are.
“Sometimes, the obvious answer is the correct answer,” a Celebrini voter concluded.
After finishing second to Michkov in the December NHL Awards Watch, Celebrini pulled nearly 90% of the first-place votes from our panelists to take control of the rookie of the year race.
“A must-watch player already,” a Macklin backer said. “He’s absolutely electric despite having little help around him.”
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Macklin Celebrini lights the lamp for Sharks
Macklin Celebrini lights the lamp for Sharks
Entering Monday’s action, Celebrini (28 points) trailed Michkov (29 points) by one point despite playing eight fewer games thanks to an early-season injury. Celebrini’s 0.93 points-per-game average was tops among all rookies. He also led all rookies with 13 goals, one more than Michkov.
“Matvei Michkov had the head start, but the wonder kid in San Jose has made up for lost ground,” a voter said.
Celebrini is seeing significantly more ice time (19:48) than the Flyers rookie (16:31) on average. In fact, Celebrini is second only to Hutson, a defenseman, in average ice time for rookie skaters.
“Not many rookie forwards skate almost 20 minutes per game,” a voter declared.
“I lean Macklin over Michkov because of the two-way skill and effort he regularly shows on a lesser team,” another added.
Michkov still has a strong case and could end up sweeping the goals and points titles among rookies, both of which have been harbingers for forwards winning the Calder. He’s feasted on the power play for the Flyers, with five goals and 12 points, which led all rookies. While Celebrini has managed to keep up with Michkov as far as highlight-reel moments, Michkov has thrived under — or despite? — the “tough love” of John Tortorella’s coaching.
“Michkov has restructured a broken power play with ease. He’s reminded us the extent of impact one majestic player like him can truly have on a team’s complexion,” a voter explained. “I anticipate changing this to Celebrini by the end of the year, but I’m also anticipating an extremely close call.”
Michkov is the only other player to earn first place votes for the Calder. Based on the number of mentions he received on voters’ ballots, we’re comfortable putting Hutson in that third spot just ahead of Calgary Flames goalie Dustin Wolf.
Hutson has 27 points in 39 games while skating 22:34 per game for the Canadiens. To put into perspective how much Hutson has lapped the field among rookie defensemen: The next highest scoring rookie defenseman, Nolan Allen of Chicago, is 21 points behind.
The Canadiens defenseman is a minus-8, fourth worst on the Habs for players with at least 15 games played. That’s with Montreal having sheltered him with 63% of this zone starts coming in the offensive zone.
Wolf, who was third overall last month, is 12-6-2 in 20 games, with a .913 save percentage and a 2.63 goals-against average, to go along with two shutouts. Those are easily the best numbers for any rookie goalie with at least 10 appearances. With the Flames in the thick of the wild-card race, he should not be counted out for Calder consideration.
But right now, it’s just “consideration.” It remains Celebrini vs. Michkov, with Celebrini clearly ahead in the race.
Vezina Trophy (top goaltender)
Note: The NHL’s general managers vote for this award
Leader: Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg Jets
Finalists: Jacob Markstrom, New Jersey Devils; Logan Thompson, Washington Capitals
This is Connor Hellebuyck’s Vezina to lose, but our voters didn’t make it unanimous.
Hellebuyck is 24-6-2 for the dominant Jets, with a .926 save percentage, a 2.09 save percentage and five shutouts — leading the NHL on all of those categories for goaltenders with at least 20 appearances.
He won his second Vezina Trophy last season and looks very much poised to win a third. Since 1981 — when the NHL changed the criteria of the Vezina Trophy to no longer just honor the goalie who played the most games on the team that gave up the fewest goals — only three goalies won the Vezina more than twice: Dominik Hasek, Martin Brodeur and Patrick Roy. All legends and all Hockey Hall of Famers.
“It is ‘Helle-back?’ Perhaps ‘Helle-back-to-back?'” a voter quipped.
“Five shutouts and the season isn’t half over. He’ll be on Hart ballots, too,” another voter predicted.
There was another goalie that snagged a first-place vote and it was a surprise: Thompson, the Capitals netminder who came over from Vegas in the offseason.
The Capitals have been one of season’s best teams and Thompson has been a big reason why. In 20 games, he’s an incredible 16-2-2, with a .916 save percentage and a 2.39 goals-against average. Compare those numbers to what Washington’s other netminder Charlie Lindgren has posted (10-8-1, .900 and 2.70) and the contrast is stark.
“Thompson has been so incredibly efficient. Sixteen of his 20 appearances qualify as quality starts (80%),” the Thompson voter noted. “When the goals dried up for the Capitals following their hot start — and Alex Ovechkin was injured — Thompson kept them on track.”
The other Vezina spot could go to Filip Gustavsson of the Minnesota Wild, who was in the top three in last month’s NHL Awards Watch. He certainly has the numbers: 18-6-3 in 27 games, with a .926 save percentage and a 2.20 goals-against average. He also leads the NHL with 13.5 goals saved above expected per Stathletes.
But the goalie with the highest down-ballot mentions was Markstrom. He’s 19-8-2 with a .911 save percentage and a 2.18 goals-against average. He hasn’t been perfect, and has just 3.1 goals saved above expected this season, but a handful of voters believe he belongs in the Vezina conversation, such as it is.
“This is not a conversation by any stretch of the imagination,” a Hellebuyck voter opined.
Selke Trophy (best defensive forward)
Leader: Aleksander Barkov, Florida Panthers
Finalists: Nico Hischier, New Jersey Devils; Mitch Marner, Toronto Maple Leafs
Barkov earned 42% of the first-place votes, which slightly down from his total last month (50%) but puts him in position to win back-to-back Selke trophies and his third Selke in five seasons.
The Panthers have a 2.06 goals-against and a 1.87 expected goals-against per 60 minutes with Barkov on the ice. The Panthers get 60% of the high-dander chances. He’s also winning an exceptional 61% of his faceoffs this season while putting in work on the penalty kill as well.
“Aleksander Barkov is still the guy,” a voter concluded.
While Barkov remains on top of the Selke leaderboard, the finalists from the December Awards Watch have changed. Out are Anthony Cirelli of the Tampa Bay Lightning and Sam Reinhart of the Florida Panthers; in come Hischier and Marner.
Hischier was second in the Selke voting in 2022-23. He wins 55.8% of his faceoffs and leads the fifth best penalty kill in the NHL, as the forward with the most short-handed ice time on average for New Jersey. His underlying numbers aren’t stellar from a defensive standpoint, although he wins a good amount of puck battles. But he’s a player that certainly passes the eye test as a defensive force for New Jersey.
The same goes for Marner, a winger whose speed and tenacity make him a terrific defensive player. He leads the NHL in turnovers created (8.67) and steals per 60 (2.18) for players with at least 700 minutes of ice time, per Stathletes. He’s the ice time leader for the eighth best penalty kill in the NHL.
It’s here we note that a non-center hasn’t won the Selke Trophy since 2002-03, when Dallas Stars winger Jere Lehtinen captured the award for the third time.
Reinhart was one of five other players to receive a first-place vote, is listed as a center although he plays on Barkov’s wing. He has slightly better defensive metrics than his center, and also plays on the penalty kill.
Cirelli also received a first-place vote. He wins 51.7% of his faceoffs and he’s an outstanding penalty killer, with two goals and two assists shorthanded. His underlying numbers (3.51 expected goals against per 60 minutes) don’t mount a strong argument at the moment. Keep in mind that Cirelli was selected for Team Canada in the 4 Nations Face-Off as a defensive specialist, and that certainly raises his profile.
Anze Kopitar won the Selke in 2015-16 and 2017-18. He’s having an outstanding season for what might be the best defensive team in the NHL. The Kings have a 1.66 goals-against per 60 minutes when Kopitar is on the ice.
Jordan Staal has been searching for his first Selke win for 15 years, and finished second for the award last season. He’s once again the linchpin at forward defensively for the Hurricanes, who have a 1.69 goals-against average per 60 minutes when the center is on the ice.
The other player to receive a first-place Selke vote was Jack Eichel. As mentioned earlier, the Golden Knights believe his name should be in the hat for this award. Vegas gives up 2.16 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 with Eichel on the ice, and he’s an effective penalty killer, too.
Barkov leads, but this is certainly still a competitive race.
Lady Byng Trophy (gentlemanly play)
This is the part where I mention that the Lady Byng Trophy for gentlemanly play should be voted on by the league’s on-ice officials or by the NHL Players’ Association instead of the PHWA.
Traditionally, this award goes to a player with a top 20 point total and the lowest penalty minutes among those players. Brayden Point is 16th overall in scoring with 45 points, and had only two penalty minutes through 33 games. But keep an eye out for Anze Kopitar, who won the award in 2015-16 and 2022-23. He’s 34th in scoring (39 points in 38 games) and also has just two penalty minutes. What a race!
Jack Adams Award (best coach)
Note: The NHL Broadcasters’ Association votes on this award.
Leader: Spencer Carbery, Washington Capitals
Finalists: Dean Evason, Columbus Blue Jackets; John Hynes, Minnesota Wild
Alex Ovechkin has 19 goals in 23 games this season. When he fractured his leg in November, there wasn’t just concern about the state of his NHL all-time goals record chase. There was concern that it might derail what had been a stellar start for the Capitals, who went 13-4-1 with Ovechkin in the lineup through Nov. 18.
In between his injury and Ovechkin’s triumphant return to the lineup on Dec. 28? The Capitals went 13-6-2, thanks in no small part to the steady leadership and strong fundamental systems of Spencer Carbery.
The second-year coach had Washington with the Eastern Conference’s top points percentage heading into Monday’s games. They were the top scoring team in the league (3.72 goals per game) and sixth in goals against (2.64).
Perhaps that’s why Carbery was the only unanimous choice in any category in this month’s NHL Awards Watch.
“He’s going to run away with this, and for justifiable reasons,” a voter declared.
While Evason and Hynes didn’t get any first-place votes, they both received a lot of love down the ballot from our voters.
Hynes coached the Wild through some injury adversity to get near the top of the Central Division, with strong underlying defensive numbers.
“Hynes deserves a little love here,” a voter argued.
Evason, in his first season with the Blue Jackets, has Columbus right at the Eastern Conference wild-card bubble after 40 games. He also has something that other candidates don’t have: an emotional backstory, as Evason helped lead this Blue Jackets team through its grief following the tragic death of star forward Johnny Gaudreau before the season.
“The job Dean Evason is doing in Columbus, given everything that franchise has endured, is remarkable. To have them remotely close to a playoff spot is a huge feather in his cap,” a voter explained. “If Columbus gets in, he may beat Carbery and Hynes, but those two have their teams playing consistently solid hockey.”
Other coaches mentioned by our voters include Los Angeles Kings first-year coach Jim Hiller, Tampa Bay Lightning coach Jon Cooper and Colorado Avalanche coach Jared Bednar. The Winnipeg Jets‘ Scott Arniel, who was in the top three last month, did not receive a mention.
“Steven Stamkos is gone, Mikhail Sergachev was traded and they’re one of the highest scoring teams in the league, one of the top in goal-differential, and radically turned their 5-on-5 play around,” a Cooper backer noted.
“Considering injury list and goaltending woes, though, Jared Bednar should get more love in this category,” another voter said.
Other coaches will get love. But it’s hard to imagine any one of them breaking through the infatuation with Carbery this season.
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Jeff Passan, Senior MLB Insider
Designated hitter Brent Rooker and the Oakland Athletics are in agreement on a five-year, $60 million contract extension, sources told ESPN late Monday night, continuing a winter of uncharacteristic spending with a long-term deal for the late-blooming slugger.
Before he joined the A’s in 2023, Rooker had bounced among three teams without finding consistent playing time. The A’s saw Rooker blossom into an All-Star in his first season with them, a 10th-place MVP finisher last year and the receiver of the second-largest extension in franchise history.
The A’s, who will play in Sacramento for the next three seasons before a planned move to Las Vegas after leaving Oakland, already had spent $67 million this winter to sign right-hander Luis Severino and added left-hander Jeffrey Springs in a trade with Tampa Bay. The deals, as well as Rooker’s, continue to push the A’s payroll toward the $100 million range. If they do not spend at least 1½ times the revenue-sharing money they receive, the A’s run the risk of a union grievance.
The deal signals the latest in an attempt to rebuild after years of minuscule payrolls and lackluster results. Though the A’s were a success story of a team that managed to succeed in spite of meager support from ownership, recent seasons with slashed payrolls have yielded awful results and coincided with vitriol toward owner John Fisher as A’s bid the city of Oakland farewell.
Rooker becomes the lone A’s player under contract through their planned Las Vegas debut in 2028. The deal, which was first reported by The Athletic, will pay him $30 million over the first three seasons and includes a sixth-year vesting option for $22 million that can escalate by $10 million. The previous largest extension had gone to star third baseman Eric Chavez, who also held the record for largest contract at $66 million until Severino exceeded it.
The deal buys out a potential three years of free agency for Rooker, who three years ago wasn’t sure how much longer his big league career would remain afloat. After debuting with Minnesota in 2020, Rooker struggled and eventually was traded to San Diego in April 2022. Four months later, the Padres dealt him to Kansas City. Three months later, the Royals designated him for assignment, and the A’s claimed Rooker off waivers.
In his first season with the A’s, Rooker nearly doubled his previous career plate appearances and hit 30 home runs. He was even better last season, hitting .297/.365/.562 with 39 home runs and 112 RBIs.
The A’s surprised teams at the July trade deadline when they declined to discuss Rooker in trade discussions. Rooker was similarly off-limits this winter, as Oakland understood an extension for him would further push their payroll toward the number needed to avoid collective-bargaining issues. Rooker was set to make around $5 million in arbitration, but the contract will count for $12 million because that’s its average annual value.
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