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Suddenly, at election time, political predictions become so much harder and riskier. Everything changes in a campaign, not least the news cycle.

That’s my excuse, at any rate, for failing to foresee the announcement of a general election in last week’s Politics at Jack and Sam’s.

There were a few clues – and one magisterial tweet from Financial Times journalist Lucy Fisher – but we were deaf to the signals.

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Pic: Reuters
Britain's Prime Minister and Conservative Party leader Rishi Sunak speaks to journalists on the plane on their way to Staffordshire, Britain May 24, 2024. HENRY NICHOLLS/Pool via REUTERS
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Pic: Reuters

In this week’s Politics at Jack and Sam’s podcast, we reflect how this Number 10 – in big contrast to the last two – is much better at keeping secrets.

But the moment an election is called, the way information gets out alters and everything becomes trickier.

General election latest: Tories attack Starmer’s ‘stamina’

Normally political news emerges in so many different ways. There’s parliament. Government announcements. Questions, written and oral. MPs themselves, including ministers, wandering the corridors of the Commons where journalists can go stopping for a gossip.

All of that disappears at election time. Keeping things secret from the other side matters a lot more, while decisions and information is held by a much tighter group of people.

That’s why it’s not really feasible to do a weekly look ahead political podcast – and we’re responding by going daily. More details to follow.

Rishi Sunak‘s allies are quite upfront that the timing of the general election was a finely balanced argument and you can make a case both ways.

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Sunak defends wet election announcement

One of the big things that motivated Sunak to go now was that he was doing – in his view – big things; welfare announcements, defence spending commitments, NHS workforce plan.

But they found people weren’t listening and the polls weren’t moving. They weren’t “getting a hearing”. Which they put down to people being switched off from politics and apathy being high – and so the decision to call an election was motivated by that.

The other big consideration was that from around March-early April they were getting internal economic indicators, suggesting the economic conditions – things like inflation, interest rates – might be favourable, sufficiently such that they could base a campaign around.

Fascinatingly, they say there wasn’t a “decision” meeting two months ago or even three weeks ago – the move was more like the tide coming in slowly.

Although Labour were caught on the hop – some staff had booked leave, were privately confident there was nothing coming this summer and the Labour campaign bus is not yet ready – candidates claim to be pretty happy with what’s happened so far.

However, the biggest challenge of the next five weeks will be seeing whether they can respond to the pressure of a campaign, and the relentless desire for more of everything.

Currently the narrative is that Sunak had a miserable start – in a few weeks, pictures of the PM in the rain could be a plucky fighter battling against the odds.

This feels unlikely right now but having been through the 2017 campaign, we know anything can happen.

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Clampdown on social media ads for Channel crossings unveiled

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Clampdown on social media ads for Channel crossings unveiled

Anyone who advertises Channel crossings or fake passports on social media could face up to five years in prison under new government plans.

Research suggests about 80% of migrants arriving to the UK by small boat used internet platforms during their journey – including to contact agents linked to smuggling gangs.

While it is already illegal to assist illegal immigration, ministers hope the creation of a new offence will give police more powers and disrupt business models.

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Small boat crammed with migrants in Channel

Home Secretary Yvette Cooper is also planning to introduce a fast-track scheme to tackle the asylum backlog, meaning decisions will be made within weeks.

It comes as official figures show more than 25,000 people have arrived on small boats so far in 2025 – a record for this point in the year.

Ms Cooper said it is “immoral” for smugglers to sell false promises online, adding: “These criminals have no issue with leading migrants to life-threatening situations using brazen tactics on social media.

“We are determined to do everything we can to stop them, wherever they operate.”

More on Asylum

The new offence prohibiting the online promotion of Channel crossings is set to be included in the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill already going through Parliament.

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More migrants arrive in Dover

Officials from the National Crime Agency already work with tech giants to remove such posts – with more than 8,000 taken offline last year.

A Preston-based smuggler who was jailed for 17 years had posted videos of migrants thanking him for his help.

Meanwhile, Albanian smugglers have created promotions for £12,000 “package deals” which claim to offer accommodation and a job in the UK on arrival.

The Conservatives have described the measures as “too little, too late” – and say automatic deportations are the only way to tackle small boat crossings.

Shadow home secretary Chris Philp said: “Labour still has no clear plan to deter illegal entry, no effective enforcement and no strategy to speed up removals. This is a panicked attempt to look tough after months of doing nothing.”

Read more UK news:
Inside prison doing family visits differently
UK’s most wanted man on run for 20 years
Couple relive watching hours of riot chaos

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Waves and kisses from asylum hotel window

It comes as protests outside hotels believed to be housing asylum seekers continue in towns and cities across the UK.

Several demonstrators were detained – with police breaking up brief clashes – outside the Thistle City Barbican Hotel in north London yesterday.

The government is legally required to provide accommodation and subsistence to destitute asylum seekers while their claims are being decided, most of whom are prohibited from working.

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China’s crypto liquidation plans reveal its grand strategy

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China’s crypto liquidation plans reveal its grand strategy

China’s crypto liquidation plans reveal its grand strategy

China’s plan to liquidate confiscated crypto through Hong Kong exchanges isn’t simply a policy — it’s to control global digital asset markets and outmaneuver the US.

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Make ‘significant adjustments’ to Online Safety Act, X urges govt

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X criticises Online Safety Act - and warns it's putting free speech in the UK at risk

The Online Safety Act is putting free speech at risk and needs significant adjustments, Elon Musk’s social network X has warned.

New rules that came into force last week require platforms such as Facebook, YouTube, TikTok and X – as well as sites hosting pornography – to bring in measures to prove that someone using them is over the age of 18.

The Online Safety Act requires sites to protect children and to remove illegal content, but critics have said that the rules have been implemented too broadly, resulting in the censorship of legal content.

X has warned the act’s laudable intentions were “at risk of being overshadowed by the breadth of its regulatory reach”.

It said: “When lawmakers approved these measures, they made a conscientious decision to increase censorship in the name of ‘online safety’.

“It is fair to ask if UK citizens were equally aware of the trade-off being made.”

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What are the new online rules?

X claims the timetable for platforms to meet mandatory measures had been unnecessarily tight – and despite complying, sites still faced threats of enforcement and fines, “encouraging over-censorship”.

More on Online Safety Bill

“A balanced approach is the only way to protect individual liberties, encourage innovation and safeguard children. It’s safe to say that significant changes must take place to achieve these objectives in the UK,” it said.

A UK government spokesperson said it is “demonstrably false” that the Online Safety Act compromises free speech.

“As well as legal duties to keep children safe, the very same law places clear and unequivocal duties on platforms to protect freedom of expression,” they added.

Users have complained about age checks that require personal data to be uploaded to access sites that show pornography, and 468,000 people have already signed a petition asking for the new law to be repealed.

In response to the petition, the government said it had “no plans” to reverse the Online Safety Act.

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Why do people want to repeal the Online Safety Act?

Reform UK’s leader Nigel Farage likened the new rules to “state suppression of genuine free speech” and said his party would ditch the regulations.

Technology Secretary Peter Kyle said on Tuesday that those who wanted to overturn the act were “on the side of predators” – to which Mr Farage demanded an apology, calling Mr Kyle’s comments “absolutely disgusting”.

Regulator Ofcom said on Thursday it had launched an investigation into how four companies – that collectively run 34 pornography sites – are complying with new age-check requirements.

Read more from Sky News:
British children who drowned off Spain named
Man charged after children fell ill at summer camp

These companies – 8579 LLC, AVS Group Ltd, Kick Online Entertainment S.A. and Trendio Ltd – run dozens of sites, and collectively have more than nine million unique monthly UK visitors, the internet watchdog said.

The regulator said it prioritised the companies based on the risk of harm posed by the services they operated and their user numbers.

It adds to the 11 investigations already in progress into 4chan, as well as an unnamed online suicide forum, seven file-sharing services, and two adult websites.

Ofcom said it expects to make further enforcement announcements in the coming months.

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