Rafah: Was Biden’s red line crossed? By most measures, yes. By Biden’s measure – probably not
Just over two weeks ago, President Biden drew a clear red line for his “old friend Bibi”.
He told Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu not to go into Rafah.
“If they go into Rafah, I’m not supplying the weapons… to deal with that problem,” he told CNN.
It was widely interpreted as the moment the American president was no longer going to be taken for a ride by Netanyahu.
But then Netanyahu’s soldiers entered Rafah. They avoided the city centre though, thus allowing Biden the wiggle room to say his line hadn’t been crossed.
Israeli forces instead took over the border crossing on the edge of the city, cutting off a key transit point to Egypt and with it, the ability to get aid in and injured people out.
Since then, Israeli military operations have continued daily but did not, the White House said, constitute “going into Rafah”.
Pushed on what appeared to be an increasingly elastic red line, Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, told us last week that there was “no mathematical formula” for working out when it had been crossed.
“What we’re going to be looking at is whether there is a lot of death and destruction from this operation or if it is more precise and proportional,” Sullivan said from the White House podium.
Then, on Sunday night, dozens of Palestinians were not just killed but burnt alive, decapitated, maimed in an attack on a displaced people’s camp on the edge of Rafah.
Fire rages following the Israeli strike. Pic: Reuters
Bushra Khalidi from Oxfam said of the scene: “There are no more words… we saw images of children blown to pieces, burnt to crisp, and I’m sorry to be graphic but that is what we saw.”
Gaza’s civilian casualties are either a “mistake”, or “a consequence of war”, or “Hamas’s fault”.
Often the civilian killings are seen by Netanyahu’s government and its supporters to be the proportional or acceptable cost of taking out Hamas commanders.
The justification is frequently packaged up as self-defence – despite stiff criticism from international bodies and eminent legal authorities.
This time, in Rafah, Prime Minister Netanyahu said that two Hamas commanders accused of carrying out attacks in the West Bank were killed, but “a technical failure” led to 40+ civilians being killed.
Palestinians look at the damage in Rafah. Pic: Reuters
Remember Jake Sullivan’s parameters set out last week? “Precise and proportional… a lot of death and destruction.”
Unquestionably there was horrific death and destruction on Sunday night. It seems mad even to have to point this fact out.
“Precise and proportional”? Well, it will take some considerable verbal acrobatics for President Biden to conclude that what happened in Rafah was either proportional or precise.
So watch the American president over the next 24 hours.
I suspect he will say that his red line has not been crossed. He will indicate that the strike, devastating though it was, did not constitute a red-line-crossing ground force smashing into Rafah.
Why? Because he would have to follow through on his threat to cut off military aid.
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And if he did that, he would face an overwhelming chorus of opposition among politicians on Capitol Hill and key donors just months before the US election.
Congress incidentally is poised to invite Netanyahu to address a joint session.
As he has so many times before, President Biden thought his “old friend Bibi” would listen to him.
But the idea that Netanyahu is listening to anything President Biden is saying is stretching credibility to its limit.
World
European leaders to meet in Ukraine for ‘coalition of the willing’ talks – and issue call to Russia
Sir Keir Starmer will join other European leaders in Kyiv on Saturday for talks on the “coalition of the willing”.
The prime minister is attending the event alongside French President Emmanuel Macron, recently-elected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
It will be the first time the leaders of the four countries will travel to Ukraine at the same time – on board a train to Kyiv – with their meeting hosted by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
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Sir Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz travelling in the saloon car of a special train to Kiev. Pic: Reuters
Military officers from around 30 countries have been involved in drawing up plans for the coalition, which would provide a peacekeeping force in the event of a ceasefire being agreed between Russia and Ukraine.
Ahead of the meeting on Saturday, Sir Keir, Mr Macron, Mr Tusk and Mr Merz released a joint statement voicing support for Ukraine and calling on Russia to agree to a 30-day ceasefire.
Sir Keir and Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a meeting in March. Pic: AP
“We reiterate our backing for President Trump’s calls for a peace deal and call on Russia to stop obstructing efforts to secure an enduring peace,” they said.
“Alongside the US, we call on Russia to agree a full and unconditional 30-day ceasefire to create the space for talks on a just and lasting peace.”
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The leaders said they were “ready to support peace talks as soon as possible”.
But they warned that they would continue to “ratchet up pressure on Russia’s war machine” until Moscow agrees to a lasting ceasefire.
“We are clear the bloodshed must end, Russia must stop its illegal invasion, and Ukraine must be able to prosper as a safe, secure and sovereign nation within its internationally recognised borders for generations to come,” their statement added.
“We will continue to increase our support for Ukraine.”
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The European leaders are set to visit the Maidan, a central square in Ukraine’s capital where flags represent those who died in the war.
They are also expected to host a virtual meeting for other leaders in the “coalition of the willing” to update them on progress towards a peacekeeping force.
This force “would help regenerate Ukraine’s armed forces after any peace deal and strengthen confidence in any future peace”, according to Number 10.
World
Ten explosions near international airport in India-administered part of Kashmir, officials say
Ten explosions have been heard near Srinagar International Airport in India-administered parts of Kashmir, officials have told Reuters news agency.
The blasts followed blackouts caused by multiple projectiles, which were seen in the sky above the city of Jammu earlier on Friday.
Explosions were also heard in the Sikh holy city of Amritsar, in the neighbouring Punjab state, according to Reuters.
An Indian military official told the agency that “drones have been sighted” and “they are being engaged”.
It comes as tensions between India and Pakistan across the line of control around the region of Kashmir have boiled over this week, leading to fears of a wider conflict.
On Wednesday morning, India carried out missile strikes in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered parts of the disputed region.
The retaliation came weeks after 26 people, mainly Indian tourists, were shot dead by gunmen in an India-administered part of Kashmir last month.
The government in India said it hit nine “terrorist infrastructure” sites, while Pakistan said it was not involved in the April attack and the sites were not militant bases.
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Explained: India-Pakistan conflict
Around 48 people have been killed since Wednesday, according to casualty estimates on both sides – which have not been independently verified.
India also suspended its top cricket tournament, the Indian Premier League, as a result of rising tensions, while the Pakistan Super League moved the remainder of its season to the United Arab Emirates.
Meanwhile, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said at a conference on Friday that the US is in constant contact with both India and Pakistan.
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Conclaves are famously unpredictable affairs – and once again the election of Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost as the new pope caught many by surprise.
The newly elected Pope Leo XIV won the consensus of the 133 cardinal electors after only four ballots – a fast process for a diverse college of cardinals.
Though his name had circulated among some Vatican watchers, other cardinals had emerged as clear front-runners, including Pietro Parolin – the Vatican’s number two who would have been the first Italian in almost 50 years to become pontiff – or Luis Tagle, a Filipino cardinal looking to become the first Asian pope.
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What are the conclave’s secrecy measures?
Instead, it was the first North American to win the highly secretive process.
So, what went on behind the closed doors of the Sistine Chapel?
Until Thursday lunchtime, Cardinal Parolin was ahead, gathering between 45 and 55 votes, sources say.
A substantial number, but well short of the 89 votes he needed for a two-thirds majority.
At this point, Cardinal Prevost had between 34 and 44 votes.
But as the Italian struggled to grow his support during the first three rounds of voting, he stepped down from the race, endorsing Prevost instead, Sky News understands.
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Who is Pope Leo?
An internal battle between Luis Tagle and Pablo Virgilio David – both cardinals hailing from Asia – cancelled out both of their chances.
And a contender from Africa – the most conservative sector of the church – was never likely for a conclave where the overwhelming majority of cardinals had been appointed by Francis, a progressive pontiff, sources say.
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Moment new pope emerges on balcony
An American pope has long been seen as highly improbable, given the geopolitical power of the US.
But Cardinal Prevost was able to draw from across the groups making up the electors: moderate US cardinals, South American cardinals and many European cardinals all coalesced around him.
Italian newspaper La Repubblica said Prevost “certainly attracted cross-party preferences, both ideologically and geographically”.
“In the conclave he was the least American of Americans: Born in Chicago, he lived 20 years in Peru,” the newspaper said.
It added: “As a man used to teamwork, Prevost appeared to many as the right man to make the papacy evolve into a more collegial form.”
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