Rafah: Was Biden’s red line crossed? By most measures, yes. By Biden’s measure – probably not
Just over two weeks ago, President Biden drew a clear red line for his “old friend Bibi”.
He told Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu not to go into Rafah.
“If they go into Rafah, I’m not supplying the weapons… to deal with that problem,” he told CNN.
It was widely interpreted as the moment the American president was no longer going to be taken for a ride by Netanyahu.
But then Netanyahu’s soldiers entered Rafah. They avoided the city centre though, thus allowing Biden the wiggle room to say his line hadn’t been crossed.
Israeli forces instead took over the border crossing on the edge of the city, cutting off a key transit point to Egypt and with it, the ability to get aid in and injured people out.
Since then, Israeli military operations have continued daily but did not, the White House said, constitute “going into Rafah”.
Pushed on what appeared to be an increasingly elastic red line, Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, told us last week that there was “no mathematical formula” for working out when it had been crossed.
“What we’re going to be looking at is whether there is a lot of death and destruction from this operation or if it is more precise and proportional,” Sullivan said from the White House podium.
Then, on Sunday night, dozens of Palestinians were not just killed but burnt alive, decapitated, maimed in an attack on a displaced people’s camp on the edge of Rafah.
Fire rages following the Israeli strike. Pic: Reuters
Bushra Khalidi from Oxfam said of the scene: “There are no more words… we saw images of children blown to pieces, burnt to crisp, and I’m sorry to be graphic but that is what we saw.”
Gaza’s civilian casualties are either a “mistake”, or “a consequence of war”, or “Hamas’s fault”.
Often the civilian killings are seen by Netanyahu’s government and its supporters to be the proportional or acceptable cost of taking out Hamas commanders.
The justification is frequently packaged up as self-defence – despite stiff criticism from international bodies and eminent legal authorities.
This time, in Rafah, Prime Minister Netanyahu said that two Hamas commanders accused of carrying out attacks in the West Bank were killed, but “a technical failure” led to 40+ civilians being killed.
Palestinians look at the damage in Rafah. Pic: Reuters
Remember Jake Sullivan’s parameters set out last week? “Precise and proportional… a lot of death and destruction.”
Unquestionably there was horrific death and destruction on Sunday night. It seems mad even to have to point this fact out.
“Precise and proportional”? Well, it will take some considerable verbal acrobatics for President Biden to conclude that what happened in Rafah was either proportional or precise.
So watch the American president over the next 24 hours.
I suspect he will say that his red line has not been crossed. He will indicate that the strike, devastating though it was, did not constitute a red-line-crossing ground force smashing into Rafah.
Why? Because he would have to follow through on his threat to cut off military aid.
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And if he did that, he would face an overwhelming chorus of opposition among politicians on Capitol Hill and key donors just months before the US election.
Congress incidentally is poised to invite Netanyahu to address a joint session.
As he has so many times before, President Biden thought his “old friend Bibi” would listen to him.
But the idea that Netanyahu is listening to anything President Biden is saying is stretching credibility to its limit.
Donald Trump has agreed to send “top of the line weapons” to NATO to support Ukraine – and threatened Russia with “severe” tariffs if it doesn’t agree to end the war.
Speaking with NATO secretary-general Mark Rutte during a meeting at the White House, the US president said: “We’ve made a deal today where we are going to be sending them weapons, and they’re going to be paying for them.
“This is billions of dollars worth of military equipment which is going to be purchased from the United States, going to NATO, and that’s going to be quickly distributed to the battlefield.”
Pic: Reuters
It comes as Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he had a “very good conversation” with Mr Trump late on Monday. He thanked him for the “willingness to support Ukraine and to continue working together to stop the killings”.
Weapons being sent from to Ukraine include surface-to-air Patriot missile systems and batteries, which the country has asked for to defend itself from Russian air strikes.
Mr Trump also said he was “very unhappy” with Russia, and threatened “severe tariffs” of “about 100%” if there isn’t a deal to end the war in Ukraine within 50 days.
The White House added that the US would put “secondary sanctions” on countries that buy oil from Russia if an agreement was not reached.
Mr Zelenskyy previously criticised Vladimir Putin’s “desire to drag [the war] out”, and said Kyiv was “working on major defence agreements with America”.
It comes after weeks of frustration from Mr Trump over Mr Putin’s refusal to agree to an end to the conflict, with the Russian leader telling the US president he would “not back down” from Moscow’s goals in Ukraine at the start of the month.
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Trump threatens Russia with ‘severe’ tariffs’
During the briefing on Monday, Mr Trump said he had held calls with Mr Putin where he would think “that was a nice phone call”, but then “missiles are launched into Kyiv or some other city, and that happens three or four times”.
“I don’t want to say he’s an assassin, but he’s a tough guy,” he added.
Earlier this year, Mr Trump told Mr Zelenskyy “you’re gambling with World War Three” in a fiery White House meeting, and suggested Ukraine started the war against Russia as he sought to negotiate an end to the conflict.
After Mr Trump’s briefing, Russian senator Konstantin Kosachev said on Telegram: “If this is all that Trump had in mind to say about Ukraine today, then all the steam has gone out.”
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Meanwhile, Mr Zelenskyy met with US special envoy Keith Kellogg in Kyiv, where they “discussed the path to peace” by “strengthening Ukraine’s air defence, joint production, and procurement of defence weapons in collaboration with Europe”.
He thanked both the envoy for the visit and Mr Trump “for the important signals of support and the positive decisions for both our countries”.
Donald Trump has agreed to send “top of the line weapons” to NATO to support Ukraine – and threatened Russia with “severe” tariffs if it doesn’t agree to end the war.
Speaking with NATO secretary general Mark Rutte during a meeting at the White House, the US president said: “We’ve made a deal today where we are going to be sending them weapons, and they’re going to be paying for them.
“This is billions of dollars worth of military equipment which is going to be purchased from the United States,” he added, “going to NATO, and that’s going to be quickly distributed to the battlefield.”
Weapons being sent include surface-to-air Patriot missile systems and batteries, which Ukraine has asked for to defend itself from Russian air strikes.
Pic: Reuters
Mr Trump also said he was “very unhappy” with Russia, and threatened “severe tariffs” of “about 100%” if there isn’t a deal to end the war in Ukraine within 50 days.
The White House added that the US would put “secondary sanctions” on countries that buy oil from Russia if an agreement was not reached.
It comes after weeks of frustration from Mr Trump against Vladimir Putin’s refusal to agree to an end to the conflict, with the Russian leader telling the US president he would “not back down” from Moscow’s goals in Ukraine at the start of the month.
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Trump says Putin ‘talks nice and then bombs everybody’
During the briefing on Monday, Mr Trump said he had held calls with Mr Putin where he would think “that was a nice phone call,” but then “missiles are launched into Kyiv or some other city, and that happens three or four times”.
“I don’t want to say he’s an assassin, but he’s a tough guy,” he added.
Earlier this year, Mr Trump told Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy “you’re gambling with World War Three” in a fiery White House meeting, and suggested Ukraine started the war against Russia as he sought to negotiate an end to the conflict.
After Mr Trump’s briefing, Russian senator Konstantin Kosachev said on Telegram: “If this is all that Trump had in mind to say about Ukraine today, then all the steam has gone out.”
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Meanwhile, Mr Zelenskyy met with US special envoy Keith Kellogg in Kyiv, where they “discussed the path to peace” by “strengthening Ukraine’s air defence, joint production, and procurement of defence weapons in collaboration with Europe”.
He thanked both the envoy for the visit and Mr Trump “for the important signals of support and the positive decisions for both our countries”.
At least 30 people have been killed in the Syrian city of Sweida in clashes between local military groups and tribes, according to Syria’s interior ministry.
Officials say initial figures suggest around 100 people have also been injured in the city, where the Druze faith is one of the major religious groups.
The interior ministry said its forces will directly intervene to resolve the conflict, which the Reuters news agency said involved fighting between Druze gunmen and Bedouin Sunni tribes.
It marks the latest episode of sectarian violence in Syria, where fears among minority groups have increased since Islamist-led rebels toppled President Bashar al Assad in December, installing their own government and security forces.
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In March, Sky’s Stuart Ramsay described escalating violence within Syria
The violence reportedly erupted after a wave of kidnappings, including the abduction of a Druze merchant on Friday on the highway linking Damascus to Sweida.
Last April, Sunni militia clashed with armed Druze residents of Jaramana, southeast of Damascus, and fighting later spread to another district near the capital.
But this is the first time the fighting has been reported inside the city of Sweida itself, the provincial capital of the mostly Druze province.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reports the fighting was centred in the Maqwas neighbourhood east of Sweida and villages on the western and northern outskirts of the city.
It adds that Syria’s Ministry of Defence has deployed military convoys to the area.
Western nations, including the US and UK, have been increasingly moving towards normalising relations with Syria.
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UK aims to build relationship with Syria
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Concerns among minority groups have intensified following the killing of hundreds of Alawites in March, in apparent retaliation for an earlier attack carried out by Assad loyalists.
That was the deadliest sectarian flare-up in years in Syria, where a 14-year civil war ended with Assad fleeing to Russia after his government was overthrown by rebel forces.
The city of Sweida is in southern Syria, about 24 miles (38km) north of the border with Jordan.
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