‘You just have to find who you are’: Why some pitchers are prioritizing execution over velocity
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David Schoenfield, ESPN Senior Writer
Logan Webb is one of the best starting pitchers in the major leagues — certainly one of the few you might confidently call an ace. The San Francisco Giants’ 27-year-old right-hander throws a sinking fastball with 30 inches of vertical break plus arm-side horizontal movement, a changeup considered one of the best in the game and a sweeper he likes to throw when ahead in the count — and he has the command to hit the corners or the bottom of the strike zone with all three pitches.
Since his breakout season in 2021, Webb ranks fourth among all pitchers in WAR — and is about to pass the injured Gerrit Cole and Sandy Alcantara to trail only Zack Wheeler. He has been durable, leading all pitchers in 2023 with 216 innings. With the movement on his sinker and changeup, he induces a high rate of grounders, thus limiting home runs better than your typical starter.
In many ways, Webb looks like the perfect prototype for a modern starting pitcher, except for one thing: He doesn’t throw hard, at least by current standards. His sinker has averaged 92 mph this season, well below the MLB average fastball velocity of 93.7 mph.
In a season in which so many starting pitchers have been hit with injuries, those around baseball have speculated on how to keep pitchers healthier, and velocity has been part of that discussion. Would pitchers get hurt less often if they weren’t throwing as hard? In other words: If they were more like Webb?
It’s a theory — although one that not even its poster child necessarily lives by.
“I’ll be honest, I still chase velocity,” Webb told ESPN. “Every offseason I’m trying to add miles per hour.”
But now that Webb and others have shown an alternative path to ace-dom — will anyone else follow their lead?
When Webb reached the majors in 2019, he was more of a conventional four-seam fastball pitcher. He had Tommy John surgery in 2016 and returned throwing 93 to 96 mph. The Giants wanted him to throw his four-seamer up in the zone, and he threw it 43% of the time during his eight-start call-up. When the Giants hired Brian Bannister as their director of pitching after that season, he convinced Webb to drop his arm angle and throw his sinker more. After Webb dropped his arm angle even more in 2021, it all came together — his sinker and changeup merging into a potent pairing.
“The cool thing about Major League Baseball is that nobody’s the same,” Webb said. “So, guys that throw hard, they just throw hard. Guys that don’t throw hard, you have to find ways to get outs. I wouldn’t say to try to do what I do, because they might not throw that way, right? Since everyone’s different. I wouldn’t tell Spencer Strider to throw like me and I wouldn’t tell me to throw like Spencer Strider.”
Strider, the Atlanta Braves’ ace, had surgery to repair his UCL in April — and he’s one of nine of the 10 starters with the hardest fastballs from last season who have been on the injured list in 2024. Strider, Sandy Alcantara, Eury Perez and Shane McClanahan are out for the season, and Shohei Ohtani won’t pitch after having elbow surgery last year. Gerrit Cole has yet to return after going down in spring training. Grayson Rodriguez and Jesus Luzardo are back after short IL stints while Bobby Miller is still out. Only Hunter Greene hasn’t missed time.
Pitchers understand the risks involved with throwing high-velocity pitches. They also know the payoff.
“It’s obviously harder to hit 98 than it is 92,” said Red Sox reliever Liam Hendriks, who is sidelined after undergoing his own Tommy John surgery last summer. “I mean, when I was 92 guy, I had a 7.00 ERA. When I was a 98 guy, it was sub-2.00.”
Hendriks is right — and the numbers are stark. Here are how batters fared against fastballs in increments of two miles per hour in 2023:
100+ mph: .188/.265/.225
98-99.9 mph: .253/.333/.357
96-97.9 mph: .262/.342/.383
94-95.9 mph: .279/.357/.413
92-93.9 mph: .290/.369/.431
90-91.9 mph: .286/.363/.449
Under 90 mph: .323/.394/.515
Throw softer, get hit harder — not to mention that if you throw faster, it’s that much more difficult for batters to adjust to off-speed pitches.
And less contact isn’t the only positive that comes from throwing harder.
“Everyone’s chasing velocity now, because guys get paid for those numbers, certain numbers that require better stuff,” Hendriks said. “It will always edge that way no matter what, just purely based on the finances of the game. If they paid guys for just outs rather than strikeouts, it probably wouldn’t be as big of an issue. It’s not even the front office, it’s the arbitration process. Those numbers are skewed toward certain statistics. Even ERA isn’t generally a huge indicator of how it goes.”
Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt said on Chris Rose’s podcast earlier this season that he’s been on teams where relievers with a 3.80 ERA get released while relievers with a 4.80 ERA are kept — as long as they throw harder. Red Sox starter Lucas Giolito pointed to Tyler Glasnow as proof of how the system works: The Dodgers gave Glasnow, who throws 96 mph with a wipeout breaking ball, a $136 million extension this past offseason even though he has never pitched more than 120 innings in a season.
However, when asked what would happen if pitchers didn’t try to max out velocity as much, rookie left-hander Kyle Harrison — Webb’s teammate on the Giants whose fastball sits at 93 mph — said he believed it could perhaps help baseball’s pitching injury crisis.
“I think that you’d probably see a little more offense, but you’d probably see less injuries. You hate to say it, but you probably would,” Harrison said. “But we’re trying to get these guys out and it takes every ounce of what we got to get them out sometimes. But that’s a good question. I think definitely some stuff would maybe get hit harder, but who knows, maybe you’d hit your spots better.”
And of course, even Harrison picks his moments to turn it up.
“If I got a guy 1-2, two outs in a situation with runners on, then I’m going to kind of reach back and get a little more,” he said. “I’ve never looked up the stats, but you always know when it’s that sixth or seventh inning and you’re at 98 pitches, you know that’s your last pitch, it feels like every pitcher, that last pitch might be an extra 1.5 mph.”
In fact, while Harrison averages 92.7 mph on his fastball overall, with two strikes it ramps up to 93.4 mph. Batters have hit .155 against his fastball with two strikes.
Sometimes less is better — sometimes more is better.
Still, though, a number of pitchers are proving that the art of pitching can still work, despite the financial incentives and stats pushing them to throw faster and faster.
Webb is having another good season, with a 2.74 ERA, while tied for the MLB lead in innings pitched. Ranger Suarez of the Philadelphia Phillies throws a 91 mph sinker — which is actually down in velocity from last season — and he’s off to an incredible start. Shota Imanaga of the Chicago Cubs has come over from Japan and befuddled batters with a 92 mph four-seamer and splitter. Seth Lugo of the Kansas City Royals sits 92-93 mph and is having the best season of his career. Despite all the injuries to big-name, high-velocity starters, 26 qualified starters have an ERA below 3.00 through Sunday. Sixteen of those 26 have an average fastball velocity below the major league average.
Tanner Houck of the Boston Red Sox is one of those, with a sinker that clocks in at 93.3 mph, a little under the MLB average. He first reached the majors in 2020 and has shuffled between starting and relieving, spending most of 2022 in the bullpen before making all his appearances last season and this year as a starter. At 28 years old, he’s having the best season of his career, with a 1.90 ERA and just one home run allowed through his first 11 starts.
He’s found that, for him, not throwing as hard works.
“I realized that if I’m at 92, 94 [mph], I hit spots better,” Houck said. “My movement’s better. It produces ground balls earlier in the count. I’m in the zone more and that allows me to get deep in the games. So, it didn’t take much to convince myself [to not throw as hard]. I just really had to kind of look at the mirror and realize the person I am and the man I am. Just had to ego check myself.”
When Houck pitched out of the bullpen in 2022, he threw his four-seamer nearly as often as his sinker, with the four-seamer averaging 95.2 mph. As a starter, he’s now completely ditched that pitch, sticking with a sinker, splitter, slider and occasional cutter. The splitter, thanks to a slight grip change, is better than ever, but as with Webb, the key is understanding what works best for him.
“If you’re a guy who can throw 97 to 100, by all means, I applaud you,” Houck said. “I think the big thing for young pitchers is you just have to find who you are as a pitcher. If you’re going to be a 94, four-seamer guy at the top of the zone with a curveball, like [Nick] Pivetta, who can also run it up there to 97, 98, that’s great. If you’re going to be a sinkerballer who is hitting the knees, that’s great. For me, I’m an east-west guy, I’m a low three-quarter. I’m not going to throw four-seamers at the top of the zone. I’ve tried that and it didn’t work out.”
For Webb, part of that pitching identity has also become maximizing efficiency. When he first reached the majors, his teammates included Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija — all pitchers who had thrown 200 innings on multiple occasions. Webb wanted to be like those guys, and in his brain, being a starter meant getting to 200 innings.
Last season, Webb was one of just five pitchers to reach 200 innings while averaging 6.5 innings per start — getting there, in part, because he ranked second in fewest pitches per inning among qualified starters. This year he’s averaged 6.0 innings (thanks to a couple poor outings in April) and 97.8 pitches per start, still above the MLB averages of 5⅓ innings and 87 pitches.
Don’t mistake efficiency for an inability to strike batters out, though — it’s hard to survive just on grounders alone. Webb has fanned 20.3% of the batters he’s faced this season, just below the MLB average of 21.8% for starting pitchers. Last year, he was a tick above average at 22.8%. Suarez (28.4%), Imanaga (27.8%) and Houck (24.4%) are among those with above-average K rates in 2024.
But pitchers like Harrison know that strikeouts still aren’t everything — it’s all about getting out of the inning whatever way you can.
“I was a big strikeout guy in the minor leagues,” he said. “That’s something I really wanted and would kind of strive for at times. The starts I’ve had up here, I kind of realize I’ll take the out however it comes if it saves me five pitches. That’s five more pitches I can give later in the game. So that’s kind of my mindset. Obviously everyone loves strikeouts, but we want to be efficient as pitchers — and that’s something I picked up in watching Alex Cobb and Logan Webb last year.”
Hall of Famer pitcher Greg Maddux, the master of the running two-seamer, likes to say that “pitching isn’t a speed contest, it’s an execution contest.” We’re seeing that from pitchers like Webb, Houck and Suarez.
While the chase for velocity isn’t going away, that quote reminds us of the importance of knowing how to pitch. And as the game continues to evolve, so too will pitchers — and batters.
As hurlers sort out their pitching identity and what works best for them, batters have slowly adapted to changes in the game as well, fine tuning their abilities to keep up with the varying types of pitches and speeds they see in the batter’s box.
Houck has seen that firsthand in teammate Rafael Devers.
“It’s special — what he can do in today’s game,” Houck said. “How he can hit 100, but then he can also wait back and hit 85. I don’t know how anybody gets a hit. It’s genuinely the most fascinating thing, watching a hitter, because what they do is impossible.”
Pitchers have responded to the Deverses of the world with fewer fastballs — even high-velocity ones get hit — with more sweepers. The percentage of four-seamers and sinkers has dropped from 52.4% in 2019 to 47.2% in 2024. Meanwhile, pitches classified as sweepers have increased from 0.6% to 5.8% in that timeframe.
Will that eventually lead to more pitchers who don’t rely purely on velocity?
“If you look at any analytics or stuff they give you, off-speed pitches work better, they have better numbers,” Webb says. “If you’re talking ISO or X-slug or all those expected things, breaking balls and changeups were better than fastballs.
“So, it’s like, do you want to keep throwing your fastball? Or do you want to throw off-speed? It’s really just about whether or not you execute the pitch. Because if you execute the pitch, it doesn’t matter if batters know what’s coming or not. It’s most likely going to be an out. That’s what pitching is.”
The trade deadline for the 2024-25 NHL season is 3 p.m. ET on March 7. But the deals have been flying since the start of the season.
You’ll find information on every trade made since Oct. 6 here, including grades on all of the major ones. Follow along all the way through the deadline for the latest moves.
Trades are listed here, with the most recent ones first on the list.
More: Big Board
Contender flaws, solutions
Team-by-team guides
Grades for big trades
March 5
Lightning gets:
C Yanni Gourde, RW Oliver Bjorkstrand, D Kyle Aucoin, 2026 fifth-round pick, retain 50% of Gourde’s salary
Kraken get:
C Michael Eyssimont, 2025 second-round pick (TOR), 2026 first-round pick, 2027 first-round pick
Red Wings get:
Conditional 2025 fourth-round pick (TB or EDM), retain 25% of Gourde’s salary
Panthers get:
G Vitek Vanecek
Sharks get:
F Patrick Giles
March 4
Oilers get:
F Trent Frederic, F Max Jones, rights to prospect Petr Hauser
Bruins get:
D Max Wanner, 2025 second-round pick, 2026 fourth-round pick
Devils get:
Rights to prospect Shane Lachance
March 1
Panthers get:
D Seth Jones, 2026 fourth-round pick
Blackhawks get:
G Spencer Knight, conditional 2026 first-round pick
Wild gets:
RW Gustav Nyquist
Predators get:
2026 second-round pick
Avalanche gets:
D Ryan Lindgren, LW Jimmy Vesey, rights to prospect Hank Kempf
Rangers get:
D Calvin de Haan, C Juuso Parssinen, 2025 second-round pick, 2025 fourth-round pick
Feb. 27
Wild get:
C Tyler Madden
Kings get:
D Joseph Cecconi
Feb. 26
Predators get:
RW Jesse Ylonen
Lightning get:
C Anthony Angello
Feb. 25
Ducks get:
G Ville Husso
Red Wings get:
Future considerations
Feb. 18
Predators get:
LW Grigori Denisenko
Golden Knights get:
Future considerations
Feb. 13
Blues get:
RW Corey Andonovski
Penguins get:
RW Mathias Laferriere
Feb. 7
Predators get:
D Mark Friedman
Canucks get:
Future considerations
Feb. 3
Hockey Club gets:
C Sammy Walker
Wild gets:
Future considerations
Feb. 1
Stars get:
C Mikael Granlund, D Cody Ceci
Sharks get:
2025 first-round pick, conditional 2025 third-round pick
Jan. 31
Canucks get:
LW Drew O’Connor, D Marcus Pettersson
Penguins get:
D Vincent Desharnais, LW Danton Heinen, RW Melvin Fernstrom, 2025 first-round pick (NYR, top-13 protected)
Rangers get:
C J.T. Miller, D Erik Brannstrom, D Jackson Dorrington
Canucks get:
C Filip Chytil, D Victor Mancini, 2025 first-round pick (top-13 protected)
Flames get:
LW Joel Farabee, C Morgan Frost
Flyers get:
LW Andrei Kuzmenko, LW Jakob Pelletier, 2025 second-round pick, 2028 seventh-round pick
Jan. 27
Islanders get:
D Scott Perunovich
Blues get:
2026 fifth-round pick
Jan. 25
Hurricanes get:
RW Mikko Rantanen, LW Taylor Hall, RW Nils Juntorp
Avalanche gets:
C Martin Necas, C Jack Drury, 2025 second-round pick, 2026 fourth-round pick
Blackhawks get:
2025 third-round pick (CAR)
Rangers get:
RW Lucas Edmonds
Lightning gets:
C Ryder Korczak
Jan. 22
Ducks get:
RW Justin Bailey
Sharks get:
LW Pavol Regenda
Jan. 15
Blackhawks get:
D Dmitry Kuzmin
Jets get:
D Isaak Phillips
Dec. 28
Avalanche gets:
C Juuso Parssinen, 2026 seventh-round pick
Predators get:
C Ondrej Pavel, 2027 third-round pick
Dec. 18
Canadiens get:
D Alexandre Carrier
Predators get:
D Justin Barron
Penguins get:
D Pierre-Olivier Joseph
Blues get:
Future considerations
Kraken get:
RW Kaapo Kakko
Rangers get:
D Will Borgen, 2025 third-round pick, 2025 sixth-round pick
Dec. 14
Blues get:
D Cam Fowler, 2027 fourth-round pick
Ducks get:
D Jeremie Biakabatuka, 2027 second-round pick
Dec. 9
Avalanche gets:
G Mackenzie Blackwood, RW Givani Smith, 2027 fifth-round pick
Sharks get:
G Alexandar Georgiev, RW Nikolai Kovalenko, 2025 fifth-round pick, 2026 second-round pick
Dec. 6
Rangers get:
D Urho Vaakanainen, 2025 fourth-round pick
Ducks get:
D Jacob Trouba
Canadiens get:
D Noel Hoefenmayer
Oilers get:
RW Jacob Perreault
Nov. 30
Wild gets:
D David Jiricek, 2025 fifth-round pick
Blue Jackets get:
D Daemon Hunt, 2025 first-round pick, 2026 third-round pick, 2026 fourth-round pick, 2027 second-round pick
Predators get:
G Justus Annunen, 2025 sixth-round pick
Avalanche gets:
G Scott Wedgewood
Nov. 27
Predators get:
RW Ryder Rolston
Blackhawks get:
Future considerations
Nov. 25
Penguins get:
C Philip Tomasino
Predators get:
2027 fourth-round pick
Nov. 12
Capitals get:
C Lars Eller
Penguins get:
2025 fifth-round pick, 2027 third-round pick
Nov. 10
Kraken get:
RW Daniel Sprong
Canucks get:
Future considerations
Nov. 4
Oilers get:
D Ronnie Attard
Flyers get:
D Ben Gleason
Oct. 31
Hockey Club gets:
D Olli Maatta
Red Wings get:
2025 third-round pick
Oct. 30
Sharks get:
D Timothy Liljegren
Maple Leafs get:
2025 third-round pick, 2026 sixth-round pick
Oct. 6
Avalanche gets:
D Tucker Poolman, 2025 fourth-round pick
Canucks get:
D Erik Brannstrom
The NHL trade deadline is Friday, but a lot of business has already unfolded.
The Avalanche made the shocking decision to trade Mikko Rantanen to Carolina — and already executed a follow-up deal to shore up depth. The Rangers began their roster reconstruction before Christmas by trading captain Jacob Trouba and 2019 No. 2 pick Kaapo Kakko before making a splash in acquiring J.T. Miller.
And when Seth Jones began voicing his displeasure, Chicago’s front office moved quickly — despite limited leverage — and completed a deal with Florida, which brought the Blackhawks their new goalie of the future, Spencer Knight. Even the Bruins got started on their retool, trading Trent Frederic on Tuesday.
There are still moves to be made this week, but NHL executives across the league have all echoed one thing: Just wait until the summer. With salary cap projections released for the next three seasons that include sizable jumps, teams are going to feel friskier. Free agency should be a doozy. There could be multiple offer sheets. And “hockey trades” featuring high-profile players are about to be a lot more common.
Agents and front office executives say everyone is settling in to the new financial reality.
So what’s in store the next few days? Here are a few trends we’re tracking.
Any big splashes left?
• The big question on everyone’s mind: What is going to happen with Rantanen? The Carolina Hurricanes traded for the 28-year-old on Jan. 24. Like their acquisition of Jake Guentzel last year, the Canes made a move to acquire an unrestricted free agent without an extension in place. But I think Carolina had a different approach this time. With Guentzel, the Canes were too far apart before it was too late. Plus, the Canes said they had intel that they were a team Rantanen was interested in before making the trade. So they made him a sizable contract offer over the 4 Nations break. Rantanen wasn’t ready.
Now, look at the situation from Rantanen’s perspective. He thought he was going to spend his entire career in Colorado and the trade left him completely shell shocked. Rantanen barely got any time with the Canes before the 4 Nations break. The winger is methodical, and he’s viewing it as a two-step process: Does he want to sign in Raleigh? And if so, what does that contract look like? At the time of the offer, he was still on Step 1. And free agency is now just four months away.
Many teams are wondering whether Carolina — never afraid to do the brash and unexpected — would flip Rantanen, considering how much it gave up to acquire him. If Carolina double-retained, a team could have Rantanen for just over $2 million for the rest of the season. There would be plenty of takers.
However, Rantanen hasn’t told Carolina no. If the Canes get any indication he doesn’t want to re-sign with them at all, they would recalculate. If it’s still up in the air, my gut says the Canes keep Rantanen and bet that he’ll help them get over the playoff hump and ultimately decide Carolina is where he wants to play.
• Sidney Crosby‘s name is going to surface in rumors as long as the Pittsburgh Penguins are out of the playoff picture. We all know Crosby cares about winning and wants a more realistic shot at the Stanley Cup. However, I also know Crosby understands what he signed up for when he inked a two-year extension in September. Pittsburgh has some retooling to do, and for now, Crosby appears committed to that journey.
• And then there is Boston Bruins captain Brad Marchand, who becomes a free agent this summer. Boston is beginning its retool, and seems to be listening on a lot of players. I’m not sure anyone outside of David Pastrnak and Charlie McAvoy is safe. Marchand has been steadfast that he wants to remain in Boston. The Bruins want that too — just at the right price and term — and have been negotiating with his camp all season. The sense around the league is that Marchand will stay in Boston, though it’s not guaranteed.
• The wild card, as always, is the Tampa Bay Lightning. By nature, GM Julien BriseBois always wants to go for it — and to go for the unexpected, though forwards seem to be the area of focus. Placing veteran Cam Atkinson on waivers on Tuesday could foreshadow new flexibility. The Lightning don’t have a first-round pick in the 2025 draft, but the consensus among executives is that the 2026 class is deeper.
• And if there’s a team that’s going to make an unexpected splash, keep an eye on Vegas. The Golden Knights are always all-in.
The East is wide open
Many East teams have referred to 2025 as a sellers’ market. There are eight teams within six points of the wild-card spots. Every time I talk to executives in that mix, they feel the spots are up for grabs and anyone could emerge. But that also means few feel confident about going all-in.
• As of Tuesday, New Jersey Devils center Jack Hughes was still getting second opinions on his upper-body injury and the best course of treatment. Either way, he’s expected to be out for a bit. Before the injury, the Devils were buyers — looking to shore up center and forward depth. I expect them to still look at forwards, especially ones that could help their biggest issue: 5-on-5 scoring. But given the circumstances I now think they could be in on rentals, too.
• The New York Rangers are in a gray area. They’ve already made a handful of trades, the latest a deal with the Avs in which they unloaded Ryan Lindgren and Jimmy Vesey in return for Juuso Parssinen, Calvin de Haan and second- and fourth-round picks in this year’s draft. I’m also told there are several teams in on UFA Reilly Smith, who remains sidelined until a deal is complete. However, the Rangers refuse to wave the white towel, which is why they’ve brought in roster replacements as part of their deals. Even though GM Chris Drury signaled he didn’t feel his opening-night roster could win it all, a spot in the postseason, and that all-important playoff revenue, is still attainable in a season of transition. New York is likely to be very active this summer. Look for the team to take big swings.
• Lou Lamoriello is extremely patient. He always has been. This season, Lamoriello waited as long as possible to make a decision on which direction the Islanders are headed. All season, other teams have told me they expect pending UFAs Brock Nelson (the top center available) and Kyle Palmieri to be available. But it’s never official until Lou says it is. Nelson’s postgame interview with Shannon Hogan on Tuesday — in which he got emotional — led me to believe he’s processing the reality that his Islanders tenure could be coming to an end.
• The Detroit Red Wings and Ottawa Senators are itching to take the next step in their rebuilds. Detroit has looked at defensemen. The Senators have looked at depth forwards. I think both would like to add and give themselves a chance here.
Some teams aren’t going to trade for the sake of trading
• The Capitals have been the darlings of the Eastern Conference this season. The word I got was that they weren’t going to tinker for the sake of tinkering. They know they hit on some good hockey trades and are open to more. (The common theme for players Washington has brought in recently: They’re all in their mid-20s.) However, there’s no need to fuss with what has been a terrific season. Now that Logan Thompson and Charlie Lindgren are re-signed, Washington has seven pending UFAs. GM Chris Patrick has had conversations with all of their representatives, but even if they’re not close on a contract — sounds like there’s mutual interest between Jakob Chychrun and the team, but still work to be done — I don’t expect any to get traded. There is also possible movement for Ethan Bear, who has been playing very well for Hershey of the AHL. With Dylan McIlrath and Alexander Alexeyev sitting as scratches on the big roster (the Caps have remained very healthy), Bear’s path appears blocked. If there’s an NHL opportunity for Bear, Washington could make a move to facilitate that.
• Every time I’ve talked to Philadelphia Flyers GM Danny Briere over the past two seasons, he reiterates that the team is in building mode. Once again, there has been interest in defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen and center Scott Laughton. As coach John Tortorella mentioned, if they trade Ristolainen, who is replacing the big, right-shot defenseman? Philadelphia would make a move only if the return is right. Same goes for Laughton, a heart-and-soul player who has told the Flyers that he’d like to stay. Laughton responded to the trade rumors with a cheeky photo on social media in which he used a recent team dinner to recreate “The Last Supper.” There has been much more interest in Laughton, though the Flyers will make a move only if it makes sense for them. (I think a first-round pick would be enticing.)
• Chicago Blackhawks GM Kyle Davidson said he felt less pressure than in years past to get a first-round pick at this deadline, though he did pick one up in the Jones trade — giving them nine picks across the first and second rounds over the next two years. Chicago is likely to move Ryan Donato, considering there’s a ton of interest. The Blackhawks also may try to find a new home for Petr Mrazek, now that they have Knight. But other than that, the next few months are all about giving their young players the right exposure and development. Then, expect Chicago to be a big player over the summer. The Blackhawks can’t have another season like this one. It’s time to get going.
Plans have changed for a few teams
• When the Columbus Blue Jackets opened training camp in September, GM Don Waddell had an idea of what his trade deadline would look like: sell, sell, sell. Big picture, the team is in building mode, and this season was going to be a challenging one as they grieved the unimaginable loss of Johnny Gaudreau. The season opened, and the injury bug was relentless: Sean Monahan, Boone Jenner, Kent Johnson, Erik Gudbranson, the list goes on and on. Through it all, Columbus has persevered and finds itself in the playoff picture. And it has created a conundrum.
Waddell told me he couldn’t fall asleep last week as he contemplated what to do. In any other season, he’d stick to the plan and sell, because he knows this team isn’t realistically a Stanley Cup contender. But he’s not sure that’s the right thing to do. How could he remove any players from a locker room that has created such a special bond? The Jackets signed Mathieu Olivier, who would have been an attractive target, to an extension Wednesday morning. Ivan Provorov, a pending UFA, is the player Waddell is getting the most calls on. Waddell isn’t sure he’ll be able to re-sign Provorov; he’ll continue to try again this week. Unless it’s an offer Waddell can’t refuse, there’s a good chance Provorov stays. And there’s a good possibility the Blue Jackets add, too. They’ve been scouting for forward depth.
• The Dallas Stars got going on their business early, acquiring Mikael Granlund and Cody Ceci, out of necessity. They had injuries — especially on the blueline ahead of 4 Nations — and they had holes to fill. They’re not necessarily done. Miro Heiskanen and Tyler Seguin are out long term, and their timelines remain unclear. Dallas has room to add complementary pieces. Keep in mind, though, that this is a front office that drafts extremely well — and it has already traded away its 2025 first-, second- and fourth-round picks.
• The Florida Panthers were poised to have a quiet trade deadline. Yes, they’re going for it again, but they didn’t have a ton of assets to give up. Then Seth Jones became available, and he answered their need on the right side of the blue line. And now, Matthew Tkachuk is out for the rest of the regular season with an injury he sustained at 4 Nations. With cap space to play with, everyone around the league is betting on the Panthers bringing on someone else as well.
No matter who they bring in, the question for Dallas and Florida: Will Heiskanen or Tkachuk be available for Day 1 of the playoffs?
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Tim Kurkjian
On the fictional St. Louis Wolves team in Abbott and Costello’s famed routine, the third baseman’s name is I Don’t Know, which is appropriate because, for large stretches of baseball history, teams have tried, often without success, to find a quality third baseman. And yet, in 2025, it appears the search has shifted across the diamond. For one of the few times in major league history, we’re asking, Who’s on First?
First base is a position in flux. In 2024, major league first basemen batted .246, their lowest total since 1900. They also posted an OPS of .736, their lowest since 1968, the Year of the Pitcher (the highest OPS by first basemen in any season was .882 in 2000, during the steroid era, and a little more recently, .853 in 2006). A first baseman has won a Most Valuable Player Award 32 times, most of any position (right field is second), but last season marked the second time in 10 years that no first baseman finished in the top five of the MVP balloting.
“There are probably only five or six [starting first basemen in the game now] who fit the mold of a typical first baseman, but there are 24 or 25 who don’t,” said Pat Tabler, who played 444 games at first base in the major leagues from 1981 to 1992. “In my fantasy baseball league, if you don’t get one of those five or six top guys, you got no chance. Now, you’re just like, ‘Whatever happened to the Eddie Murrays? Where are the Eddie Murrays today?”’
There is still talent at the position. Freddie Freeman, the MVP of the 2024 World Series for the Los Angeles Dodgers, is a great player, a future Hall of Famer, as is the Philadelphia Phillies’ Bryce Harper, who is starting his second full season at first base. The Atlanta Braves’ Matt Olson hit 54 home runs in 2023. The Toronto Blue Jays’ Vlad Guerrero is one of the best young hitters in the game. The Houston Astros’ Christian Walker, a brilliant defender, has hit 95 homers over the past three years. And since Pete Alonso made his New York Mets debut in 2019, the only player to hit more home runs is New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge.
But the turnover has been glaring. Half the teams this season will have a different primary first baseman than in 2024. The days of the classic first baseman such as John Olerud, Don Mattingly, Mark Grace — long, rangy, great hitter, left-handed — seem to be over for now.
We spoke to luminaries of the game — those who have played the position, plus those who managed them — to find out exactly what has changed and why.
“It’s one of the important positions on the field,” said Keith Hernandez, often considered the greatest defensive first baseman of all time. “The numbers don’t lie. It’s not as important, or as productive, as it was.”
“I look at the first baseman that I played with and against — there were great first basemen everywhere,” said former first baseman Mark Teixeira, who hit 409 home runs from 2003 to 2016. “I only made three All-Star teams. There were great first basemen for my entire career. It has almost turned into a throwaway position.”
“Scouts tell me that the least drafted position in baseball is first base. There just aren’t any,” said Princeton baseball coach Scott Bradley. “The players who end up there were moved from other positions, unless they are projected as a 40- or 50-home run guy. It has become a stopgap position, a last-ditch effort.”
“It used to be a mainstay position; it’s not the same,” Milwaukee Brewers veteran first baseman Rhys Hoskins said. “Power is always needed. Now we’re seeing shortstops hitting 25, 30 home runs. There has been more of a focus to get athleticism in the middle of the diamond. First base has become more of a place to fill a gap.”
Perhaps it’s cyclical. In 2024, first basemen such as Olson, Alonso and Paul Goldschmidt had subpar seasons. Maybe in five years, there will be multiple superstars at the position. Over the past five years, surefire Hall of Fame first basemen Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera (who was more productive at third base) retired, as has Joey Votto, who has a good chance to make it to Cooperstown on the first ballot. And with the universal DH being established two years ago, a good hitter in both leagues can now be used as a DH, perhaps reducing the production at first base. As for first basemen posting their lowest batting average since 1900, and their lowest OPS since 1968, the stuff hitters see today is stunningly good, and offensive numbers are down at most positions.
But the decline at first base has been steeper than most. First basemen have had the biggest drop in OPS among all positions since 2015, according to ESPN Research.
“These are strange times,” said former major league manager Buck Showalter. “First base has become a one-dimensional place. How many prototype first basemen are out there? One of them, Pete Alonso, had trouble getting a two-year deal [as a free agent this winter]. If you have a good first baseman these days, it’s gold.”
Why have old-school first basemen become so rare?
“I think a lot of it comes down to body type,” said former major league manager Bobby Valentine. “The increase in velocity has negated the skills of the slower, thicker-body guys. And the taller guys, too, with the bigger strike zone, that makes you easier to attack. We are looking for smaller guys, shorter guys to play first base these days. The slider-speed bat guys, there aren’t many places for them in the game today.”
“You look at first basemen from back in the day and they look like football players and basketball players,” Tabler said. “Those guys are now staying in football and basketball, because it’s like straight to the NFL and the NBA. They’re not playing baseball anymore. That’s why I think there aren’t as many [first basemen] as there used to be. In football, you go to college for a couple of years, and you strike it rich when you are 20. Or, you go play football, and you get paid in college now. These guys just aren’t playing baseball.”
Teixeira said, “Maybe teams see all these injuries and understand that players are going to move around during a season, so the bigger first basemen aren’t as valuable to a team anymore. Maybe, early in their careers, players stop lifting all the time. Instead of getting bigger and stronger, they think they need to stay light and agile to be able to play multiple positions. The old way of thinking was to put the biggest, slowest guy at first base. He happens to rake, and he can hit all day long. Maybe we’re not taking a young player and just throwing him out at first base. You’re working with him more to develop all his skills.”
And the defensive structure of the game has also changed the look of the position.
“The position is not about power,” said San Francisco Giants manager Bob Melvin. “It’s about defense.”
“In today’s game, it should be about defense at first base,” Brewers manager Pat Murphy said.
“I think the genesis of this was when the young GMs came to value on-base percentage and the shifting of the defense,” Tabler said. “If you have three defenders on the left side, you need a first baseman who plays basically like a second baseman. There’s no way Luis Arraez or Michael Busch could have ever played first base in the 1980s. But they do now because when they were moved over to first base, teams were shifting, and you needed a first baseman who could cover all that ground on the right side. That’s where this started. Teams started to value defense more than home runs. We’ll find power somewhere else.”
Teams are looking for power in traditional non-power positions. Thirty years ago, Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz, who is 6-5, likely would have been a first baseman. So would Pittsburgh Pirates‘ shortstop-turned-center fielder, Oneil Cruz, who is 6-7.
“I had [Erubiel] Durazo [at first base], Travis Lee, Adrian Gonzalez, Don Mattingly, Chris Davis. I don’t know if we’re spitting out those type of guys anymore,” Showalter said. “When you go to college, you won’t see that guy. Everyone wants to be Bobby Witt [Jr.], a power-hitting shortstop/second baseman. The old baseball player development manual said, ‘Make him play catch, short, second, center field until he shows he can’t [do it] defensively. Don’t ever just start at first base.’ I used to tell [former Baltimore Orioles general manager] Dan Duquette that [Ryan] Mountcastle had no chance to play shortstop. Never. Never. Never. But Dan was so stubborn. Teams are so stubborn about that today. And Mountcastle ended up at first base.”
Tabler said, “GMs are so enamored with players who can play multiple positions because they want all those interchangeable parts, so you’re working with a 32-man roster instead of 26. They are so enamored with mixing and matching, to have someone ready when they bring a lefty in in the sixth inning. So, a guy who is pigeon-holed, you’re a first baseman, only a first baseman, they look at that and say, ‘That’s not good.”’
Alonso only plays first base. He is big, not particularly mobile and not particularly good defensively.
“He is the poster boy [for the changes in the position],” Valentine said. “He had a hard time getting a contract.”
Anthony Rizzo, a free agent, only plays first base. He made $14 million last year during a down (and injury-filled) season and, for now, he has no job. There is, as there always is in baseball, a financial component. If you platoon at first base, or choose an agile defender who doesn’t hit much, instead of a big, immobile one who might hit 35 home runs, you likely can pay that player less.
Even though some teams are stressing defense over power at first, “No one teaches defense at first base anymore,” Showalter said. “Guys like Keith Hernandez and Mattingly were so valuable with their defense.”
Said Hernandez: “Defense used to be a major plus at first base. Other than the catcher and the pitcher, no one is more involved in the game than the first baseman. Defense just isn’t as stressed as much today.”
Bradley said, “If you are designing the position, first base is a left-hander’s position in every way. Holding runners on, the bunt play, the position is built for a left-handed thrower. John Olerud is what a first baseman is supposed to look like: tall, long, left-handed. After college, when he pitched, he never dabbled in another position, like the outfield. He was always a first baseman. There aren’t any like him anymore.”
Indeed. Of the 30 primary first basemen in the major leagues, only four throw left-handed.
“I am stunned by that,” Hernandez said. “It is a position best played by a left-hander.”
But Hernandez, a left-handed thrower, is different from today’s first basemen. Instead of playing the outfield or third base or catching, then moving to first base, he started playing first at age 6, and played it full time at age 10. Now, very few are brought up that way. They play another position until they can’t.
But there is hope that things at first base can, and will, change. Bradley, Princeton’s baseball coach, has recruited a high school kid from California named Tomas Cernius, who is 6-3, 245 pounds, and bats and throws left-handed.
“He is a first baseman only,” Bradley said.
Tabler said that now the shift has been outlawed to some degree, he’s hopeful the position is going to change back to the old days of size, production and power.
“We’re going to get back to sluggers like Triston Casas,” Tabler said, referring to the Boston Red Sox first baseman, who is 6-5, 245 pounds, is exceptionally strong and only plays first base. “Give me a guy who hits 40 homers and drives in 125 and plays decent enough defense at first base. Hey, here’s Pete Alonso, he’s going to hit 40 homers and drive in 100 runs and answer the bell 150 plus times a year. What’s wrong with that?”
Nothing.
But right now, that’s not Who’s on First.
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