Can Fran Brown make Syracuse a powerhouse?
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Andrea Adelson, ESPN Senior Writer
SYRACUSE, N.Y. — When Fran Brown saw the Syracuse job come open last November, he watched a clip of athletic director John Wildhack ticking off what he would be looking for in his next head coach.
Ties to the northeast? Brown could check that box off 10 times over. Head-coaching and coordinator experience on the Power 5 level? Brown had neither of those, but in his view, those qualifications did not matter. He wanted the job. So he picked up the phone.
He called Wildhack himself.
“What John said he was looking for early on, experience and all these things, I’m like, ‘He doesn’t really know what he’s looking for. He’s looking for me,'” Brown said during a recent interview in his office. “I was a perfect fit.”
“Literally, five minutes before I was going to call Fran, my phone rings,” Wildhack told ESPN in a phone interview. “I don’t recognize the number, so I don’t pick it up. It goes to voicemail. I play the voicemail back. It’s Fran.
“Sometimes you think, ‘Is this a little divine intervention here or what?'”
An initial 15-minute conversation led to text exchanges, a two-hour Zoom and then an interview in front of the search committee. They agreed unanimously — Brown was the perfect fit. Brown grew up in Camden, New Jersey, a northeast guy through and through. He worked for well-respected coaches, including Matt Rhule, Greg Schiano and Kirby Smart, and he was one of the top recruiters in the country.
Though Brown had no head-coaching experience, Wildhack said that could be overlooked since so many other factors made sense.
Five months in, it seems like Wildhack was right.
Without playing a game, Brown has brought attention to a Syracuse program that has not won a conference title in 20 years. He has done it thanks to eye-opening offseason moves, starting with Ohio State transfer quarterback Kyle McCord — the highest profile transfer to ever sign at Syracuse.
More transfers followed, including defensive lineman Fadil Diggs from Texas A&M. Syracuse wound up with 18 players from the transfer portal — 12 from the Power 5, seven from the SEC, unprecedented at a school that has won 10 games once since 2002.
Top-tier recruits have also signed with Syracuse, too. This past December, defensive end KingJoseph Edwards became the first ESPN300 prospect to sign with the Orange. In all, Brown signed four four-star prospects, more than the five previous seasons combined. Syracuse finished with the No. 42 signing class, its highest ranking since ESPN started ranking the top 75 in 2014.
This has energized and engaged people in and around the program. Wildhack said donors have stepped up to improve their NIL efforts, though he said they preferred to remain anonymous. A record 16,500 people showed up for the spring game. Wildhack said Syracuse is well ahead of its usual pace with season ticket sales and renewals.
“It’s been phenomenal,” Wildhack said. “I’ve not seen anything like it in my time here, just how he has energized the community, our fan base, our football alums.”
To remind himself of that, Brown has a framed $10 bill in his office, in a temporary location while construction on a new football operations center continues. A yellow Post-It note came with the money: “Coach Brown — Watched your interview on the Syracuse Orange. Just wanted you to know from one coach to another I am all in!! Here is my $10.00! Go Orange”
THE PROGRAM BROWN inherits had some recent success under former coach Dino Babers, going to back-to-back bowl games for the first time since 2012-13. Brown also inherits a strong core of returning players, including running back LeQuint Allen, tight end Oronde Gadsden II, linebacker Marlowe Wax and defensive backs Justin Barron and Alijah Clark.
But each season, Babers’ Orange were unable to close strong after getting off to fast starts. Last season, Syracuse opened 4-0, then lost five straight. In 2022, Syracuse opened 6-0 before another five-game losing streak.
Brown, of course, knows to truly make Syracuse relevant again, he has to do more than start fast. Though history says it’s unlikely that a team from the northeast will win national championships, Brown believes it is possible. Since 2006, teams from the south have won every national championship except two (Ohio State in 2014 and Michigan in 2023). Penn State was the last team from the northeast to win a national title, and that was in 1986.
Growing up in Camden, Brown paid close attention to schools like Syracuse, Penn State and Pittsburgh — which all took their respective turns on the national stage. Why can’t that happen again, he asks?
He dismisses any notion that Syracuse is at a disadvantage in the transfer portal and NIL era because it does not have the same resources as the top-tier football programs in its own conference, let alone the one he just came from in Athens, Georgia.
“How can you say we don’t have what they have?” Brown asks. “You’ve got to talk to the players to see what they want, and if I’m developing you the right way, are you going to leave here for $20,000? Is that all you’re looking at your future to be about?”
“Georgia coaches football well. Everyone tries to take away from that. You could go, ‘They’re only winning because of this.’ That’s what chumps say. We all have the same opportunity. Just figure out how to get it done.”
He can easily point to the work he has done in the transfer portal as proof that he can bring in elite players to play for him at Syracuse. It started on Day 1. Brown was introduced as Syracuse coach Dec. 4. That same day, McCord announced he was in the portal after three seasons at Ohio State.
McCord started his final season at Ohio State, going 229-of-348 for 3,170 yards with 24 touchdowns and six interceptions, winning third-team All-Big Ten honors. But Ohio State lost to Michigan to close out the regular season, dashing its College Football Playoff hopes. Afterward, McCord said he had “tough conversations” with the Ohio State coaching staff.
“The vision that they had was different than the vision that I had,” McCord said. “In a perfect world, we win, go undefeated, win the national championship and I’m probably not in this position, probably not here, but everything happens for a reason. So when they told me that they thought they wanted to go in another direction, that’s the harsh reality of it.”
McCord grew up in New Jersey, and his relationship with Brown goes back years, to when McCord was in sixth grade. His dad, Derek, worked in the same hospital as Brown’s wife, Teara. Derek was known to brag on McCord from time to time. Teara told Fran he should go and watch Kyle play. He attended youth football games and they struck up a relationship.
Still, McCord says now, “You never think it’s going to turn into this.”
Brown flew to Columbus, Ohio, shortly after McCord entered the portal and met with him in his apartment. McCord remembers Brown selling his vision for Syracuse, and his belief they could win right away. Another big selling point: Brown hired Jeff Nixon as his offensive coordinator, another coach McCord knows from New Jersey. McCord and Nixon’s son, Will, played youth football together starting at age 5 in South Jersey, when Nixon was an assistant with the Philadelphia Eagles. (Last week, Will Nixon transferred from Washington to Syracuse.) Nixon had previously worked with Brown and when he was hired, Nixon immediately texted and said, “Coach, I’m available.”
“That was music to my ears,” McCord said. “The vision that he had of going out and competing and being able to win a lot of games early on, and having input in the offense and just things like that was really what sold me.”
There is one more connection Nixon has that McCord finds helpful — Nixon and Ohio State coach Ryan Day served on the same offensive staff at two different stops during their respective careers. McCord says the Syracuse offense is similar to what he ran at Ohio State, even including some plays with the same names.
McCord committed Dec. 17, which Brown says lent instant credibility to the program. Two days later, Diggs — originally from East Camden, New Jersey — announced he was transferring in from Texas A&M. Already, Brown was assembling a big transfer haul — Georgia receivers Jackson Meeks and Zeed Haynes had already decided they were coming with him from Athens. Then in early January, cornerback Duce Chestnut announced he would transfer back to Syracuse after spending last season at LSU.
McCord points out that he played youth football with several of his now-teammates, including Chestnut. He also played against Diggs in high school. McCord said building back northeast football at the college level, as players from the region, is something they want to do.
And Brown is determined to build a winning program with players predominantly from the region. On the 2024 roster, 40 players are from the northeast, including seven of the 11 transfers who enrolled in January. Four of those players attended Camden High, where Brown played quarterback and set the then-single-season school record with 47 touchdown passes.
“It’s kind of been like a childhood dream for a lot of us to play together,” McCord said. “You look around the building. It’s guys from New Jersey and Pennsylvania and New York. … I think we can really change the program around pretty quickly. You see what Coach Fran has been doing in these first few months here, and I think if we can just stay on that trajectory, things are going to go upward.”
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR ELIJAH Robinson and Brown played Little League Football together in Camden. They also shared the same godfather, who made sure they stayed on the right track. Robinson knew, even as Brown starred on their high school team, that one day his friend would be headed for big things. Brown had a natural charisma about him, but also a dogged determination to make it.
“There was never a doubt in my mind he would be here at some point because of who he is,” Robinson said. “I know who Francis Brown is, as a young man who overcame so much adversity. I know the Francis Brown that went to JUCO, who would drink a gallon of water because he didn’t have enough money for food and went to sleep early so he wouldn’t think about being hungry. People like that, who do things the right way, they climb.”
Brown has a gift from a parent sitting on his desk that encapsulates what he tries to keep in mind every day — a knight in armor, on one knee, with arms outstretched. A clear message: I am giving my son over to you for the time being.
Coaches often speak in broad platitudes about wanting to make a lasting impact on their players. One of the reasons Brown says he never wanted to be a coordinator is because that would mean having influence over only part of the team; he wanted to be able to reach every single player.
So he bided his time, preparing his entire coaching career for this moment. On his iPad, he has folders from every stop along the way, with notes, schedules, schemes, reminders and plans for how he would run his own program.
That is only part of the job. What he believes in most of all is what makes all those around him believers, too.
“The original definition of coach is a horse-drawn buggy that takes important people from where they are to where they want to be,” Brown says. “You’re an important person, I’m the horse-drawn buggy. So I’ve got to take you from where you are right now to get you to where you want to be.”
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Bill Connelly
Week 1 had headliners for the casuals. Week 2 had rivalry games and loads of thrillers for the hardcores. In Week 3, we attempt to split the difference. This week gives us high-stakes helmet games (Texas A&M-Notre Dame, Georgia-Tennessee, Florida-LSU) and rivalry games both bitter (Pitt-West Virginia) and, sometimes, silly (Ole Miss-Arkansas). But most of all, it gives us PANIC.
Notre Dame is 0-1 and won’t have a ton of quality win opportunities to overcome a potential 0-2 start. Clemson and Georgia haven’t looked the part yet and could be severely punished if they don’t shift into gear. Supposed Big 12 favorites Arizona State and Kansas State are a combined 2-3 and can’t wait much longer to turn into the teams they were supposed to be. And both Florida and Virginia Tech played their coaches onto incredibly hot seats with jarring second-half collapses last week. So many fan bases are either fuming or about to be.
The first two weeks were fun in different ways. Now it’s time to get anxious. Here’s everything you need to follow in Week 3.
All times are Eastern, and all games are Saturday unless otherwise noted.
Jump to a panic tier:
Hot seat | Time to look good
CFP hopefuls | Rivalries | Facing an upstart
More:
Week 3 playlist | Small school showcase
Hot seat panic
Between Nov. 16 and last Saturday, Florida went 5-0, beating LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State in successive weeks, allowing just 10.4 points per game and, presumably, playing head coach Billy Napier off of the hot seat.
Then the Gators lost to USF. They settled for field goals early and gave up just enough big plays (and horrid penalties) late to lose 18-16. It happened the way a lot of upsets happen, and USF might turn out to be an awesome team. But Florida now faces an absurd run featuring trips to No. 3 LSU, No. 5 Miami and No. 16 Texas A&M, plus a visit from No. 7 Texas, in the next month. Napier went from reasonably safe to all but done in a heartbeat.
He’s not alone, at least. Starting the season against South Carolina and Vanderbilt, Brent Pry’s Virginia Tech got outscored by a combined 48-3 in two horrendous second halves. The Hokies have plummeted to 74th in SP+. Unlike Florida, they have a rebound opportunity with home games against Old Dominion and Wofford, but ODU has been awfully interesting to start the season.
First things first: If LSU had played USF instead of Louisiana Tech last week, the Tigers could have been in trouble too. The LSU offense no-showed, averaging just 4.9 yards per play, and with the run game struggling (as it did for much of 2024), quarterback Garrett Nussmeier made some shaky decisions, taking three sacks with a pick and averaging a dire 4.8 yards per dropback. If Florida responds well to an angry week in Gainesville, don’t be surprised if we get an upset.
Until we see Florida’s response, however, nothing else matters. Quarterback DJ Lagway is still kicking off rust after an injury-plagued offseason and is averaging just 9.7 yards per completion; the Florida run defense could very well dominate, but it’s the pass defense that matters against LSU, and the Gators rank just 91st in yards allowed per dropback. After games against Long Island and USF, that’s pretty foreboding, no matter how iffy Nussmeier looked last week.
Current line: LSU -7.5 | SP+ projection: LSU by 2.8 | FPI projection: LSU by 3.0
I don’t pretend to be a body language expert, but when Vanderbilt scored to start the second half against Virginia Tech last week, the Hokies’ offense had just about the worst body language I’ve ever seen heading out onto the field. It was bad enough that I actually noticed it and made a mental note, and it happened about right here on the game’s win probability chart.
The Hokies offense didn’t score another point, and the Hokies defense didn’t make another stop. Tech will probably get back on track this week, but Old Dominion landed some solid punches early against Indiana in Week 1 and has overachieved against SP+ projections by a combined 46.4 points in its first two games. ODU quarterback Colton Joseph is making big plays with his arm and legs, and if the Monarchs can go up early, things could get very, very awkward at Lane Stadium.
Current line: Hokies -6.5 | SP+ projection: Hokies by 7.0 | FPI projection: Hokies by 3.8
‘It’s time to look like you were supposed to look’ panic
Georgia and South Carolina are unbeaten, and Clemson has only lost to the No. 3 team in the country. Arizona State suffered a heartbreaking loss to Mississippi State last week but could obviously still win the Big 12. All four of these teams were in the preseason top 15, and three still are. If they start looking like the teams they were supposed to be, they’ll all have good seasons with solid playoff chances.
If they don’t turn it on this week, however, things will get very complicated. They’ve combined to underachieve against SP+ projections by an average of 10.4 points per game. Georgia has barely made any big plays, Clemson’s offense has been shockingly inefficient, and South Carolina is 112th in points per drive and has been bailed out by punt returns and defensive touchdowns. Arizona State hasn’t been able to throw or defend the pass. On Saturday, all four teams play opponents that could absolutely beat them if they don’t find their respective A-games.
Georgia sleepwalked through a 28-6 win over Austin Peay last week on a disjointed, stormy afternoon in Athens. The Bulldogs had more turnovers (two) than 20-yard gains (one), and while APSU looks like an awfully strong FCS team, this was still one of Georgia’s most flawed performances in quite a while.
Does that matter? Georgia basically treats the season like an NFL regular season, knowing it’s talented enough to avoid any real missteps and aiming to peak in December. If the Dawgs flip the switch and roll over Tennessee, it won’t surprise a single soul in Neyland Stadium. They’ve won eight straight in the series, after all, and have won in their past four trips to Knoxville by an average of 41-10. But it’s hard to have much confidence in a Georgia offense that showed next to no explosiveness against Marshall and APSU.
And it’s not as if the offense hasn’t tried. Gunner Stockton has thrown seven passes at least 20 yards downfield, but he has completed just one. Granted, he has completed 76% of all his other passes, and Georgia has been pretty efficient. But the big-play spigot needs to open pretty quickly.
New Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar has overseen plenty of big plays to date, going 39-for-59 for 535 yards, five TDs, no interceptions and no sacks. He has benefited from a strong run game, however, and he might not be able to lean on that Saturday: Georgia has allowed just 2.2 yards per carry (not including sacks), with linebackers Gabe Harris Jr. and Raylen Wilson flying to the ball. Tennessee could find itself behind schedule pretty frequently, and like Stockton, Aguilar will face his biggest test of the season by far.
Current line: Dawgs -3.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 1.3 | FPI projection: Vols by 0.3
We’re working with tiny samples, but the difference between preseason expectations and early-season quarterback production has been dramatic: The top five QBs on the preseason Heisman odds lists are currently 35th (Garrett Nussmeier), 56th (Arch Manning), 77th (Drew Allar), 82nd (LaNorris Sellers) and 104th (Cade Klubnik) in Total QBR.
For younger players like Manning and Sellers, a slow start might make sense. But Klubnik was supposed to be the high-floor veteran who allowed Clemson to benefit from everyone else’s inexperience. With unproven running backs and an already banged up O-line, however, he has been a shadow of his 2024 self.
After games against one of the best (LSU) and worst (Troy) defenses on the schedule, Klubnik’s stats are down across the board. He’s getting blitzed constantly, he’s providing no threat with his legs, and Clemson’s passing success rate has plummeted from 37th to 105th. Either that changes now, or Clemson’s 2025 goals start to fall apart. A loss Saturday would almost clinch that the Tigers have to win out to reach the College Football Playoff.
Georgia Tech is 2-0, with a defense that has overachieved twice against SP+ projections and an offense that was nearly perfect last week against Gardner-Webb despite forever-injured quarterback Haynes King sitting out. King should be good (enough) to go Saturday, and though the Clemson defense could disrupt the Tech line of scrimmage, the Yellow Jackets still might score enough to win if Clemson’s offense doesn’t start looking like it was supposed to look.
Current line: Clemson -2.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 0.6 | FPI projection: Tech by 1.3
First things first: If Vicari Swain wants to make a Heisman push by doing stuff like this all season, I’m game.
1:05
House call! Vicari Swain scores on 65-yard punt return
House call! Vicari Swain scores on 65-yard punt return
Swain has scored on three of five punt returns in 2025, and it has created a strange balance: Including a fumble return score, South Carolina’s defense and special teams have scored as many touchdowns (four) as its offense. The Gamecocks rank 108th in offensive success rate, and LaNorris Sellers is taking even more sacks (12.0% of dropbacks) with less deep-ball payoff.
Vanderbilt has, without question, been the better of these two teams thus far. The Commodores beat Virginia Tech by 24 in Blacksburg (compared to South Carolina’s 13-point, punt return-aided win on a neutral field), and they rank ninth in yards per dropback (10.2) and sixth in yards allowed per dropback (3.1). The Commodores scored more TDs in the second half against Virginia Tech (five) than the Gamecock offense has managed in four halves.
We don’t draw permanent conclusions after two games, but either South Carolina’s offense establishes a rhythm Saturday or the Gamecocks begin a very humbling stretch. They’re already projected underdogs in four of their next six games. Lose this one as a favorite, and you can probably kiss playoff hopes goodbye.
Current line: SC -3.5 | SP+ projection: SC by 9.5 | FPI projection: SC by 4.0
Last year, Arizona State survived a number of early close calls, then looked spectacular late. But the god of close games is fickle, and the Sun Devils dropped a thriller in Starkville last week.
They could obviously still reach the CFP by winning the Big 12, but with games against Baylor, TCU, Utah and Texas Tech on the horizon, they must start looking the part, and on Saturday night, they face an explosive Texas State team that nearly took them down last year. Bobcats backs Lincoln Pare and Jaylen Jenkins are averaging 8.1 yards per carry, and receivers Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr. are averaging 20.8 yards per catch.
ASU should run the ball well against a shaky Texas State defensive front, but Sam Leavitt — currently 92nd in Total QBR with a 57% completion rate, three INTs and four sacks — has somehow become even more reliant on one-man receiving corps Jordyn Tyson, and the ASU secondary ranks 85th in yards allowed per dropback. ASU nearly overcame a terrible start in Starkville, but if TXST’s offense gets rolling early like Mississippi State’s did, it might never slow down.
Current line: ASU -18.5 | SP+ projection: ASU by 11.1 | FPI projection: ASU by 8.3
‘Probably don’t want to lose if you have CFP hopes’ panic
We can’t call many Week 3 games true must-wins in the CFP era, but Notre Dame is 0-1, Alabama has already laid one egg, and preseason Big 12 contender Kansas State is 1-2. If these three games aren’t must-win, they’re made of a pretty must-win-like substance.
Notre Dame gave us a pretty conflicting impression in Week 1’s narrow loss at Miami. Quarterback CJ Carr was decent but unspectacular in his debut start, while the defense limited Miami’s big-play potential but allowed a 49% success rate, which means it currently ranks 126th in that category. The offensive and defensive lines performed worse than expected, and the run game was first underwhelming and then forgotten.
The Irish had a week off to prepare for a strong Texas A&M team that has underachieved a hair because of defensive breakdowns. Quarterback Marcel Reed has furthered his brand of nearly mistake-free ball (zero INTs and one sack in 74 dropbacks), and running backs Le’Veon Moss and Rueben Owens II are averaging 6.6 yards per carry. The defense has knocked opponents off-schedule well, but it has indeed been hit by eight gains of 20-plus yards.
The Aggies scored 40-something and allowed 20-something against both UTSA and Utah State. Notre Dame isn’t much of a “track meets” kind of team, and Carr threw almost all of his passes close to the line of scrimmage against Miami. But he connected on both of his long passes. Might the Irish get aggressive and test A&M’s glitchiness?
It’s easy to see this game becoming one of trench warfare, though random chunk plays could tell the tale. One way or another, the Irish really do need a win here. Even if they were to lose and then win out to finish 10-2 — not a given considering how good future opponents like USC and Arkansas have looked thus far — their résumé might feature only one or two wins over ranked teams, and they could find themselves at the bottom of a pile of 10-2 teams. That’s really not where you want to be.
Current line: Irish -6.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 2.8 | FPI projection: Irish by 5.6
In 2003, Kansas State suffered an early three-game losing streak, then won its first Big 12 title two months later. You can overcome a slow start, but K-State has already almost run out of runway. The Wildcats have dropped three-point heartbreakers to Iowa State (excusable) and Army (less so) and barely beat North Dakota in between.
The run game has been dreadful without injured star Dylan Edwards — he is cleared to play Friday — and while quarterback Avery Johnson has been decent, only opponents are making big plays: 24% of opponents’ completions have gained 20-plus yards (124th nationally).
Arizona, on the other hand, has been spectacular, overachieving against SP+ projections by a combined 34.0 points and playing like 2024’s ridiculously disappointing campaign never happened. Noah Fifita is averaging nearly 18 yards per completion, and the defense has picked off five passes while allowing just two completions over 12 yards.
Once again: We don’t draw conclusions after two weeks, but Arizona has performed infinitely better than K-State so far. If that continues Friday night, K-State shifts to just trying to go 6-6 and Arizona announces itself as a Big 12 contender.
Current line: K-State -1.5 | SP+ projection: Arizona by 2.9 | FPI projection: Arizona by 2.6
Is it a stretch to put Alabama in this section when the Crimson Tide are three-touchdown favorites? Probably. But I wanted to highlight that the Crimson Tide have been maybe the single-most volatile team in the country through two weeks, first underachieving against SP+ projections by 28.3 points in a dismally unprepared loss to Florida State, then winning nearly every play and overachieving by 41.4 points in a 73-0 win over Louisiana-Monroe.
Wisconsin might not be amazing this year, but the Badgers are closer to FSU than ULM, at least on defense. The Badgers have allowed one drive over 50 yards in two games — yes, against Miami (Ohio) and Middle Tennessee, but still — and they’ve created serious havoc, ranking fourth in sack rate and 15th in stuff rate. Quarterback Danny O’Neil has been efficient filling in for the injured Billy Edwards Jr., but the Wisconsin offense probably won’t threaten Bama much. The defense will force the Tide to put in a shift, however, and prove that last week’s performance was far closer to what we should expect from Bama moving forward.
Current line: Bama -21.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 17.1 | FPI projection: Bama by 15.7
‘This rivalry is full of devastating losses’ panic
The Backyard Brawl is pretty in-your-face about how awesome and wild it is. I mean, “Brawl” is right there in the title. It’s loud and brash enough that you have almost no choice but to think, “Tell me again why we aren’t playing this game every year?” about once per quarter. Rich Rodriguez’s return to WVU has brought a wave of sentimentality … and memories of 2007, when Pitt scored one of the most devastating rivalry upsets of all time.
(No, but seriously, tell me again why we’re not playing this game every year?)
Arkansas-Ole Miss, meanwhile, doesn’t really even have a name and wasn’t played annually until the 1980s. You can probably find plenty of Razorbacks and Rebels fans who don’t even consider this a true rivalry. Fine. But in the past 14 years alone, this game has produced scores of 53-52, 52-51, 38-37, 37-33, 34-30 and 30-27. There aren’t many games I look forward to more, and I can call it whatever I want.
WVU’s Week 2 loss to Ohio — and the subsequent loss of running back Jahiem White to season-ending injury — might have lowered the stakes here, but Milan Puskar Stadium will be humming all the same. Pitt has come out of the gate firing, beating Duquesne and Central Michigan by a combined 106-26 with an explosive offense and dominant run defense. The WVU defense has been better than I expected, though, and it will take only a couple of turnovers to flip this one in the home team’s favor.
Current line: Pitt -7.5 | SP+ projection: Pitt by 4.5 | FPI projection: Pitt by 2.2
Ole Miss survived one pain-in-the-butt matchup, exacting a bit of 2024 revenge with a 30-23 win over Kentucky last week. Quarterback Austin Simmons is establishing his footing, the secondary looks great, and the Rebels are projected favorites in all but one remaining game. We could be watching a playoff plan come together, but a trio of home games against Arkansas, Tulane and LSU in the next three weeks could provide any number of plot twists.
Arkansas is up to 21st in SP+ following two cupcake wins (Hogs 108, Alabama A&M and Arkansas State 21). Taylen Green is averaging nearly 10 yards per dropback and 13 yards per (non-sack) carry. But the Razorbacks were in the top 30 last September, too, before things went off the rails. If they have staying power this time, they could deliver us another very silly Rebs-Hogs game.
Current line: Rebels -6.5 | SP+ projection: Rebels by 10.4 | FPI projection: Rebels by 6.6
‘Don’t want the in-state upstart to ruin our great start’ panic
If you don’t knock USF out early, you will pay for it. Boise State drove into Bulls territory on four of its first six possessions but turned the ball over twice, scored once and eventually got done in by a big-play deluge in a 34-7 loss. Florida carved up a bend-don’t-break defense early but settled for three field goals, then threw an interception in its next trip across the 50. Given enough opportunities, USF hit on a couple of chunk plays and stole an 18-16 win.
USF is allowing opponents to win the efficiency battle this year but is preventing big plays and eventually making lots of its own. This formula has prompted a pair of ranked wins.
Miami’s offense is wonderfully efficient. Through two games, including one against Notre Dame, the Hurricanes are 15th in rushing success rate and ninth in passing success rate. Carson Beck‘s arm and the legs of Mark Fletcher Jr. and CharMar Brown are keeping them on schedule beautifully, and they have a No. 5 ranking to show for it. They haven’t made a ton of big plays, though, and the defense has given up gains of 20-plus yards on 5.5% of snaps (70th nationally). Surely the USF formula isn’t going to work again, right?
Current line: Miami -17.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 14.0 | FPI projection: Miami by 6.0
Week 3 chaos superfecta
We are unstoppable! We’re once again using this space to attempt to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number, and thanks to USF’s upset of Florida, we’re two-for-two on the season after going 10-for-14 in 2024.
What’s better than two-for-two? Three-for-three! Let’s take down another ranked team. SP+ says there’s only a 48% chance that No. 5 Miami (81% vs. USF), No. 17 Ole Miss (74% vs. Arkansas), No. 19 Alabama (86% vs. Wisconsin) and No. 24 Auburn (90% vs. South Alabama) all win. Adjust your chaos meters accordingly.
Week 3 playlist
Here are some more, less panicky games you should pay attention to if you want to get the most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
Colorado at Houston (7:30 p.m., ESPN). Houston has allowed nine total points and 3.0 yards per play in two games, and Colorado is evidently trying to figure out which of three different quarterbacks is the way forward. The Buffaloes are projected favorites in only two more games this season, so now would be a good time to kick into gear.
Current line: Houston -4.5 | SP+ projection: Houston by 3.3 | FPI projection: Houston by 1.9
Early Saturday
No. 4 Oregon at Northwestern (noon, Fox). Northwestern has defended the pass well this year, but (A) Oregon’s passing game is an upgrade over those of Tulane and Western Illinois, and (B) NU hasn’t really done anything else well. Oregon has done everything well thus far. This one will need some serious upset magic to be interesting in the second half. (But hey, at least Northwestern’s glorious and temporary Lake Michigan stadium will get plenty of screen time.)
Current line: Ducks -28.5 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 27.1 | FPI projection: Ducks by 23.1
No. 13 Oklahoma at Temple (noon, ESPN2). Only Oregon, USF and (in one game) TCU have overachieved against SP+ projections more than Temple thus far; coach K.C. Keeler is making an immediate impact in Philadelphia, and quarterback Evan Simon is actually second nationally in Total QBR. It’s probably a bridge too far to ask the Owls to scare the visiting Sooners, however.
Current line: OU -23.5 | SP+ projection: OU by 24.1 | FPI projection: OU by 12.3
Memphis at Troy (noon, ESPNU). Memphis is the highest-ranked Group of 5 team in SP+, but if Tae Meadows and the Troy run game get rolling, the Trojans and what should be a pretty spicy home crowd could make this one tough. (See: Tulane’s narrow escape against South Alabama last week.)
Current line: Memphis -3.5 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 11.8 | FPI projection: Memphis by 6.9
Louisiana at No. 25 Missouri (1 p.m., ESPN+). Missouri scored a wild rivalry win over Kansas last week, but seven of the Tigers’ last 10 games are projected within one score. This isn’t one of them, but Louisiana should be able to test Mizzou on the line of scrimmage, at least, and make the Tigers sweat a bit the week before South Carolina comes to town.
Current line: Mizzou -27.5 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 25.3 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 23.5
Saturday afternoon
USC at Purdue (3:30 p.m., CBS). Purdue is 2-0 and has established a nice offensive rhythm, albeit against cakey competition. But now begins a brutal stretch: Eight of its final 10 games are against teams ranked 33rd or better in SP+, including five ranked 18th or better (including USC). Can Barry Odom’s Boilermakers spring a surprise?
Current line: USC -20.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 19.7 | FPI projection: USC by 19.9
Oregon State at No. 21 Texas Tech (3:30 p.m., Fox). Oof. Oregon State suffered a devastating collapse in last week’s 36-27 loss to Fresno State. Now the Beavers head to West Texas to face a Texas Tech team that has outscored its first two opponents 129-21. We don’t know what the Red Raiders do wrong yet because they’ve done almost nothing wrong. What can OSU do to slow them down?
Current line: Tech -23.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 27.0 | FPI projection: Tech by 21.3
No. 14 Iowa State at Arkansas State (4 p.m., ESPN2). Iowa State has secured a pair of quality wins over rivals Kansas State and Iowa, but the Cyclones haven’t really gotten their run game going yet. Now’s the chance. ASU’s passing game has some pop, but the defense … doesn’t. Now’s a chance to establish a rhythm and take some pressure off Rocco Becht.
Current line: ISU -21.5 | SP+ projection: ISU by 22.1 | FPI projection: ISU by 16.2
FAU at FIU (6 p.m., ESPN+). SHULA BOWL! FAU certainly manhandled Florida A&M last week and is running Zach Kittley’s offense at the nation’s fastest tempo, but Willie Simmons’ first FIU team has overachieved against projections in each of its first two games. Can the Golden Panthers end a seven-game rivalry losing streak?
Current line: FIU -2.5 | SP+ projection: FAU by 2.7 | FPI projection: FAU by 0.7
Saturday evening
Ohio at No. 1 Ohio State (7 p.m., Peacock). Ohio is another big early-season overachiever, and quarterback Parker Navarro is fearless and physical. The blitz-happy Bobcats defense will try to throw some haymakers too. They probably won’t land many, but they could test Julian Sayin and some of Ohio State’s less experienced players.
Current line: Buckeyes -30.5 | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by -31.3 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 24.6
No. 20 Utah at Wyoming (8 p.m., CBSSN). I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: When I’m in charge of all college football scheduling, I’m sending a ranked power conference team to Laramie’s War Memorial Stadium every year. It can be a cauldron. Utah should prevail in its first trip up there in 15 years, but the Cowboys will hit hard and make their remodeled offense work harder than they’ve had to so far.
Current line: Utah -23.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 20.4 | FPI projection: Utah by 20.1
Duke at Tulane (8 p.m., ESPN2). Darian Mensah Bowl! Mensah’s new team hits the road to face his old team, and after the Blue Devils fumbled away an opportunity to beat Illinois last week, they’ll have to rebound quickly to avoid falling to 1-2. Tulane has already beaten one power conference team (OK, it was Northwestern, but still). It looks the part of a big-time squad.
Current line: Tulane -1.5 | SP+ projection: Tulane by 7.4 | FPI projection: Tulane by 6.1
Late Saturday
Minnesota at Cal (10:30 p.m., ESPN). Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has aced his early tests as Cal’s true freshman QB, completing 69% of his passes and taking almost no sacks. But Minnesota ranks third nationally in yards allowed per dropback (granted, after games against Buffalo and Northwestern State) and generates solid pressure without having to blitz much. The degree of difficulty ramps up considerably now.
Current line: Gophers -2.5 | SP+ projection: Gophers by 3.6 | FPI projection: Gophers by 0.6
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s once again save a shoutout for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.
Division III: No. 2 Mount Union at No. 15 Grove City (1 p.m., YouTube). After starting the season with a 37-29 win over a top-20 Wheaton team, Mount Union heads to Grove City, Pennsylvania, to face a ranked squad that SP+ loves. Can quarterback Mikey Maloney and the Purple Raiders score enough against a Grove City defense that forced seven turnovers against 2023 national champ Cortland last week?
SP+ projection: Mount Union by 1.8
Division III: No. 16 Wisconsin-Oshkosh at No. 1 North Central (2 p.m., YouTube). Well, you can’t question UW-Oshkosh’s bravery. A week after opening the season in Oregon and beating a top-15 Linfield team, the Titans return to the Midwest to take on Division III’s standard-bearer. North Central would immediately be a competitive FCS program, but this is a tricky season debut for the champs.
SP+ projection: NCC by 23.2
FCS: No. 17 North Dakota at No. 7 Montana (3 p.m., ESPN+). Montana is one of the FCS’ most reliable programs and should be strong again this fall, but North Dakota has begun 2025 by nearly beating Kansas State and walloping (an admittedly hopeless) Portland State. The Grizzlies better be ready for a slugfest.
SP+ projection: Montana by 11.6
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Andrea Adelson
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Andrea Adelson
ESPN Senior Writer
- ACC reporter.
- Joined ESPN.com in 2010.
- Graduate of the University of Florida.
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David Hale
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David Hale
ESPN Staff Writer
- College football reporter.
- Joined ESPN in 2012.
- Graduate of the University of Delaware.
After an awkwardly handled replay late in the first half of last weekend’s game between UConn and Syracuse, a longtime ACC official has quit his post over frustration with the way the review was handled, sources told ESPN on Friday.
Gary Patterson, who served as the head referee for Saturday’s matchup between the Huskies and the Orange and has worked as an official with the ACC since 2002, abruptly terminated his contract with the conference after the game.
The ACC confirmed Patterson’s departure from the conference’s roster of officials Friday but said that adjustments to officiating crews have already been made and that there will be no disruption to league officiating. Patterson had been scheduled to referee Saturday’s game between Pitt and West Virginia.
The sequence that reportedly led to Patterson’s departure began with 1:02 remaining in the half and UConn leading 14-3. Syracuse opened a drive at the Huskies’ 25-yard line, and on first down, quarterback Steve Angeli dropped back to pass. His arm was hit as he threw, and the ball went forward about 8 yards, landing on the turf.
The officials immediately ruled the pass incomplete. Syracuse then snapped the ball again with 58 seconds left on the clock, though about 25 seconds of real time passed between plays. The second-down throw was nearly intercepted before two UConn players collided and the pass fell incomplete, bringing up a third-and-10 with 53 seconds to go.
A flag was thrown after the play, however, and Patterson could be seen talking on his headset to the ACC’s command center for nearly 90 seconds before announcing that “replay had buzzed in prior to the previous play.”
Sources who have reviewed numerous camera angles of the sequence said there was no physical indication by any official on the field that they had been buzzed by the replay booth before the second-down snap. An ACC spokesperson said that officials were buzzed to initiate the review but that the timing was not ideal for it to be a seamless replay. The conference has addressed the handling of this sequence internally, the spokesperson said.
Officials reviewed the first-down play to see whether Angeli had fumbled, negating the second-down play, before ultimately upholding the original call of an incomplete pass.
Syracuse and UConn officials were told the referee had simply “not heard” the initial request from the replay booth before the second-down snap.
ESPN rules expert Bill LeMonnier, who has decades of experience as an official, said the series of events was uncharacteristic of how a replay would normally be handled.
“Let’s say they’re right up at the line, the ball’s being snapped, and the buzzers go off,” LeMonnier said. “It’s the referee’s discretion to shut the play down vs. saying it’s too late. It’s supposed to be in the referee’s hands.”
LeMonnier also said a flag thrown after the second-down play, which was presumably due to a high hit on Angeli by a UConn defender, was ignored, despite rules saying a personal foul would be enforced even during a dead ball period.
“The mistakes were completely created by either the replay booth or the command center,” LeMonnier said. “It’s not the fault of the officials on the field.”
Every play is subject to review. When officials are buzzed to begin the process, they get on the headset with the replay booth in the stadium and the ACC command center and the review is initiated.
Two sources with knowledge of the situation said the directive came from the ACC command center.
One source said Patterson was upset at the ACC’s interference in forcing a replay after the next play had already occurred, instigating his resignation. Patterson did not respond to requests by ESPN for comment.
After the second-down incompletion was wiped out, Syracuse went 61 yards on its next seven plays and kicked a field goal as time expired in the half. The Orange went on to win the game 27-20 in overtime.
For select games this season, the ACC has allowed cameras and audio access to the review process, offering transparency into the discussions between on-field officials and replay officials at the command center. Last week’s game between UConn and Syracuse, however, was not among those with command center coverage.
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