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There’s guilty and there’s not guilty.

Then there’s ‘whatever’, the verdict that Donald Trump had already bagged long before a New York court delivered its judgement.

Beyond the breakdown of a 12-member jury panel, the portion of America that will shrug its shoulders at this case’s conclusion means Donald Trump has numbers he can work with, politically. For now, at least.

Time will tell how the status change to “criminal” affects his bid to return to the White House. Notably, polls indicate it will go down badly with independent voters.

For his opponents, it will need to – because, in six weeks of a criminal trial, it didn’t.

Trump guilty latest: Ex-US president says he is a ‘very innocent man’

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Moment historic decision confirmed

For all the talk of due process having due impact on a presidential campaign, of evidence laid bare to land a political death warrant, the Trump campaign remains alive and kicking.

Head-to-head polls with Joe Biden still show a tight contest, with Trump ahead in key swing states. The trial has also boosted his campaign war chest – his fund-raising was greater than Joe Biden in the month of April, a 2024 first.

Whilst this trial has been a thunderous legal watershed for the United States, there are reasons why it hasn’t reverberated as it might, and as Trump’s opponents would have hoped.

Stormy Daniels. Pic: AP
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Stormy Daniels. Pic: AP

Of the four criminal trials he faces, it was the least serious. Placed against the heavyweight charges around the mishandling of classified government documents and efforts to subvert democracy, the New York crimes had a featherweight feel.

It was rather more than the “bookkeeping error” that Trump would have had us believe but there are factors beyond his characterisation that minimise impact.

The prosecutors’ witness list was populated by unsympathetic characters to whom you wouldn’t hand your house keys.

Michael Cohen, aka star witness, presented his own story of theft, dishonesty and tax evasion. Then there was David Pecker, the slippery tabloid rascal who brought us headlines like “Bungling Surgeon Ben Carson Left Sponge in Patient’s Brain”.

They were central to a prosecution case wrapped in a parcel of rogues and it weakened the ‘good versus evil’ narrative that sharpens a public’s response.

Read more:
Seven things that nailed Trump
Can Trump still be president after being convicted?

There was also the matter of trial fatigue, before it even got underway. The charges, the witness evidence and the response of the accused had all been aired loudly and often over months leading up to the trial itself.

As much as five weeks of evidence provided a gripping insight, we had heard the headlines before. The cases for the prosecution and defence were pre-cast in the public consciousness and so, largely, were conclusions around guilt and innocence.

Then there were the noises off. Time spent in the vicinity of courtroom number 1530 in Lower Manhattan was time spent listening to Donald Trump campaigning in the corridors of the court building, with a supporting cast addressing the media outside.

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‘This is a rigged trial’

Suburban vehicles and Secret Service transported the modern Republican Party’s great & good from Capitol Hill in daily convoys to loudhailer a backing chorus of ‘sham trial, weaponised justice department and political witch hunt.’

It was a political wall of sound designed to drown out the business of the court on a given day, every day. They weren’t the headline act in this corner of Lower Manhattan but they were headline enough to influence the story in its telling.

Trump supporters outside court. Pic: Reuters
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Trump supporters outside court. Pic: Reuters

So, what story will America be telling when the dust settles on this, the only criminal trial Donald Trump is likely to face before the November election?

Will voters be discussing Donald Trump? Definitely.

Will they be poring over the detail and significance of a felony conviction? Probably.

Will there be a lingering sense of shock and awe at court’s evidence and jury’s verdict? Almost certainly not.

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What happens next for Donald Trump?

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He’s already been convicted in civil court of fraud and been found liable for sexual assault. The judge in the sexual assault case called it “rape”.

If Donald Trump was in prison, he’d be segregated for his own safety, and yet, in the general population he’s positioned well for a return to the presidency.

It is the curious context for this court case and its aftermath. Whatever the difference a criminal conviction makes, the sense of ‘whatever’ might mean it makes no difference at all.

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Zelenskyy prepares for fresh White House visit – as Putin issues first comments after summit

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Zelenskyy prepares for fresh White House visit - as Putin issues first comments after summit

Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said he is preparing for his meeting with Donald Trump – as Vladimir Putin issued his first comments following the US-Russia talks on the war in Ukraine.

The Ukrainian president will fly to Washington DC for the next stage of talks on Monday, which could pave the way for a three-way meeting alongside the Russian leader, Mr Trump has said.

It comes following a high-profile summit between the US president and Mr Putin, held in Alaska on Friday.

US-Russia talks on Ukraine – latest updates

Pic: AP/ Julia Demaree Nikhinson
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Pic: AP/ Julia Demaree Nikhinson

The US president had heavily previewed the talks, threatening sanctions for Russia should there be no agreement on a ceasefire.

But a short news briefing following the summit ended with no mention of a ceasefire, no agreement on how to end the war, and little clarity about the next steps.

On Saturday, Mr Trump appeared to change his stance on what he hopes to achieve from the talks, indicating he wants a permanent peace settlement rather than a ceasefire, and announced the follow-up meeting with Mr Zelenskyy.

In a post on X, the Ukrainian president said he was grateful for the invitation and added: “It is important that everyone agrees there needs to be a conversation at the level of leaders to clarify all the details and determine which steps are necessary and will work.”

Pic: Sergei Bobylev/ Sputnik/ Kremlin pool via AP
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Pic: Sergei Bobylev/ Sputnik/ Kremlin pool via AP

However, he said Russia had rebuffed “numerous calls for a ceasefire and has not yet determined when it will stop the killing”, which “complicates the situation”.

Mr Zelenskyy continued: “If they lack the will to carry out a simple order to stop the strikes, it may take a lot of effort to get Russia to have the will to implement far greater – peaceful coexistence with its neighbours for decades.

“But together we are working for peace and security. Stopping the killing is a key element of stopping the war.”

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Trump and Putin in Alaska – The Debrief

The Ukrainian president’s last visit to the White House earlier this year descended into a fiery spat with Mr Trump and his vice president JD Vance that saw him leave early.

Mr Putin issued his first statement on Saturday afternoon following the Friday’s summit, describing the talks as “timely and quite useful” – but said the “removal” of what he calls the “root causes” of the crisis “must underlie the settlement”.

He continued: “We definitely respect the US administration’s position which wants the hostilities to stop as soon as possible. So do we, and we would like to move forward with settling all issues by peaceful means.

“The conversation was very frank and substantive, which, in my view, moves us closer towards making necessary decisions.”

Read more:
Analysis: Putin was pulling the strings
Key takeaways from Sky correspondents
Body language expert unpacks the summit

In calls on Saturday, Mr Trump told Mr Zelenskyy that the Russian leader had offered to freeze frontlines elsewhere if Kyiv agreed to withdraw from the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions, a person familiar with the matter told the Reuters news agency.

US envoy Steve Witkoff told Ukraine’s leader that Mr Putin had said there could be no ceasefire without this, and that the Russian president could pledge not to launch any new aggression against Ukraine as part of an arrangement.

Keir Starmer welcomed Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Downing Street earlier this week. Pic: AP/ Kirsty Wigglesworth
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Keir Starmer welcomed Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Downing Street earlier this week. Pic: AP/ Kirsty Wigglesworth

Meanwhile, European leaders who make up the “coalition of the willing” are set to hold a conference call tomorrow ahead of the crunch talks between Mr Trump and Mr Zelenskyy.

In a statement on Saturday, Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the US leader’s efforts had “brought us closer than ever before to ending Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine” and that his leadership “in pursuit of an end to the killing should be commended”.

He said he supported the next phase of talks, but added: “In the meantime, until (Putin) stops his barbaric assault, we will keep tightening the screws on his war machine with even more sanctions.”

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Trump and Putin agree on ‘many points’ in Ukraine talks – but give little detail away

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Trump and Putin agree on 'many points' in Ukraine talks - but give little detail away

Donald Trump has said there are “many points” he and Vladimir Putin agreed on after holding critical talks on the war in Ukraine – but no deal has been reached yet.

Following the much-anticipated meeting in Alaska, which lasted more than two-and-a-half hours, the two leaders gave a short media conference giving little detail about what had been discussed, and without taking questions.

Mr Trump described the meeting as “very productive” and said there were “many points that we agreed on… I would say a couple of big ones”.

Trump-Putin summit – latest updates

Trump and Putin in Alaska. Pic: Reuters
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Trump and Putin in Alaska. Pic: Reuters

There are a few left, he added. “Some are not that significant. One is probably the most significant, but we have a very good chance of getting there…

“We haven’t quite got there, we’ve made some headway. There’s no deal until there’s a deal.”

Mr Putin described the negotiations as “thorough and constructive”, and said Russia was “seriously interested in putting an end” to the war in Ukraine. He also warned Europe not to “torpedo nascent progress”.

Donald Trump greets Vladimir Putin at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Alaska. Pic: AP/ Julia Demaree Nikhinson
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Donald Trump greets Vladimir Putin at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Alaska. Pic: AP/ Julia Demaree Nikhinson

After much build-up to the summit, it was ultimately not clear whether the talks produced meaningful steps towards a ceasefire in what has been the deadliest conflict in Europe in 80 years.

Mr Trump said he intended to speak with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other European leaders, who were excluded from the discussions, to brief them.

The news conference came after a grand arrival earlier in the day at the Elmendorf-Richardson military base in Anchorage, where the US president stepped down from Air Force One and later greeted his Russian counterpart with a handshake and smiles on a red carpet.

Mr Putin even travelled alongside Mr Trump in the presidential limousine, nicknamed “The Beast”.

It was the kind of reception typically reserved for close US allies, belying the bloodshed and the suffering in the war.

Before the talks, the two presidents ignored frantically-shouted questions from journalists – and Mr Putin appeared to frown when asked by one reporter if he would stop “killing civilians” in Ukraine, putting his hand to his ear as though to indicate he could not hear.

Our US correspondent Martha Kelner, on the ground in Alaska, said he was shouting “let’s go” – apparently in reference to getting the reporters out of the room.

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Ukrainians are appalled at Trump’s naive and cack-handed diplomacy

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Ukrainians are appalled at Trump's naive and cack-handed diplomacy

For Ukrainians, the spectacle of Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump meeting in Alaska will be repugnant.

The man behind an unprovoked invasion of their country is being honoured with a return to the world stage by the leader of a country that was meant to be their ally.

And they feel let down.

Follow latest updates from Ukraine war

President Trump had threatened severe sanctions on Russia within 50 days if Russia didn’t agree to a deal. He had seemed close to imposing them before letting Putin wriggle off the hook yet again.

But they are not surprised. At every stage, Trump has either sided with Russia or at least given them the benefit of the doubt.

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‘Putin won’t mess around with me’

It is clear that Putin has some kind of hold over this American president, in their minds and many others.

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Ukraine wants three things out of these talks. A ceasefire, security guarantees and reparations. It is not clear at this stage that they will get any of them.

Ukrainians and their European allies are appalled at the naive and cack-handed diplomacy that has preceded this meeting.

Vladimir Putin is sending a team of foreign affairs heavyweights, adept at getting the better of opponents in negotiations.

There are, the Financial Times reported this week, no Russia specialists left at the Trump White House.

Instead, Trump is relying on Steve Witkoff, a real estate lawyer and foreign policy novice, who has demonstrated a haphazard mastery of his brief and breathtaking credulity with the Russians.

Former British spy chief Sir Alex Younger described him today as totally out of his depth. Trump, he says, is being played like a fiddle by Putin.

Read more:
What could Ukraine be asked to give up?
What to expect from pivotal Ukraine summit

There is a fundamental misunderstanding of the conflict at the heart of the Trump administration’s handling of it. Witkoff and the president see it in terms of real estate. But it has never been about territory.

Vladimir Putin has made it abundantly clear that Ukraine’s existence as a sovereign democratic entity cannot be tolerated. He has made no pretence that his views on that have changed.

Ukrainians know that and fear any deal cooked up in Alaska will be used by Putin on the path towards that ultimate goal

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