MLB Power Rankings: Where every team ranks in our last May edition
Last week, the Phillies jumped past the Dodgers, taking over the No. 1 spot in our Power Rankings. This week, another team has leapfrogged Los Angeles — the Yankees.
As May comes to a close, Philly holds on to the top spot, with New York grabbing the No. 2 slot. Another shakeup in the top 5: The Guardians join the party, with the Braves slipping two spots.
We’re past Memorial Day, so it’s finally OK to look at the standings. Although some teams — like the Cubs, who dropped out of our top 10, and the Mets, who now have just five teams below them on the list — might not want to.
Our expert panel has combined to rank every team in baseball based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts David Schoenfield, Bradford Doolittle, Jesse Rogers, Alden Gonzalez and Jorge Castillo to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.
Record: 39-18
Previous ranking: 1
The Phillies have soared to the best record in the National League and put themselves on pace for the best season in franchise history thanks to the best offense in the NL — and an out-of-this-world start from Ranger Suarez, who has out-pitched Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola (and they’ve pitched pretty well). Suarez is 9-1 with a 1.75 ERA and has allowed no runs in four of his 11 starts. On offense, the clutch hitting of Alec Bohm has helped the lineup keep the runs coming even without the injured Trea Turner for the past three weeks or so. And Bryce Harper? After a slow start (other than that three-homer game), he’s been crushing it in May. — Schoenfield
Record: 38-19
Previous ranking: 3
The Yankees’ rotation hasn’t been just solid during Gerrit Cole‘s absence, it has been elite. The group has combined for a 2.73 ERA, tops in the majors, and ranks fourth in innings pitched. Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes have rebounded nicely from deeply disappointing seasons. Marcus Stroman and Clarke Schmidt each boast an ERA under 3. But Luis Gil, Cole’s replacement, has been the best of the bunch. After a rocky April, Gil has recorded a 0.70 ERA with 44 strikeouts in six May starts. Overall, he owns a 1.99 ERA — sixth in the majors — with 79 strikeouts, and has given up just 4.1 hits per nine innings in 11 outings. The 26-year-old rookie went from optioned to the minors to an ace-level performer in two months. The Yankees have arguably the deepest rotation in baseball because of it. — Castillo
Record: 36-22
Previous ranking: 2
The Dodgers showed some rare vulnerability over the weekend, getting swept in a three-game series by the Reds and extending their losing streak to a season-high five games (they then snapped it with Tuesday’s doubleheader sweep of the Mets). On Friday, three Dodgers pitchers combined to allow six runs in the fifth inning, highlighting the lack of depth in the current bullpen. On Saturday and Sunday, the Nos. 5 to 9 hitters combined to go 1-for-30, highlighting the lack of depth in the current lineup. A lot of this can be addressed with health, though. The Dodgers’ typical No. 5 hitter, Max Muncy, is currently on the injured list. So are four high-leverage relievers — Ryan Brasier, Joe Kelly, Brusdar Graterol and Evan Phillips. — Gonzalez
Record: 35-19
Previous ranking: 4
A new American League MVP candidate emerges seemingly every week. The list is long — and Gunnar Henderson belongs near the top. Baltimore’s shortstop — the reigning AL Rookie of the Year — has taken the next step in his age-23 sophomore season. His 18 home runs are tied with Kyle Tucker for the MLB lead. HIs 3.3 fWAR is tied for fourth in the majors with Aaron Judge. His 164 wRC+ is eighth. All while playing top-notch defense at a premium position after splitting time between shortstop and third base last season. The Orioles must bolster the back end of their bullpen to contend late in October, but a deep lineup with Henderson in the leadoff spot — and Adley Rutschman right behind him — will be difficult to handle. — Castillo
Record: 37-19
Previous ranking: 6
Yes, that’s the Guardians battling the Phillies and Yankees for the best record in the majors after two months. How are they doing it? A bullpen that has arguably been the best in the big leagues, and a lineup that, shockingly, leads the AL in runs scored. Jose Ramirez, after a bit of a slow start, is back to hitting home runs and has absolutely destroyed opposing pitchers with runners in scoring position — in fact, the entire team has, with the best OPS in the majors in those situations. There might be a little smoke and mirrors going on with the offense, but given the fast start and the dominant bullpen, Cleveland’s playoffs odds are hovering around 75%. — Schoenfield
Record: 32-23
Previous ranking: 7
An unexpected power surge has helped Milwaukee to the top of the standings as it boasts eight different players with at least five home runs, though none have reached double digits yet. And the Brewers have done it with veterans like Rhys Hoskins and Christian Yelich in and out of the lineup due to injuries. Young players like Joey Ortiz have stepped up. Ortiz, acquired in the trade of Corbin Burnes to Baltimore, has opened eyes in the clubhouse with his slugging ability. Most impressive is catcher William Contreras, who looks more than comfortable in his second season with Milwaukee. He’s an MVP-caliber player right now. — Rogers
Record: 31-22
Previous ranking: 5
The season-ending injuries to Spencer Strider (after two starts) and now to Ronald Acuna Jr. are obviously crushing blows. We’re talking about the best position player in the game a season ago and the odds-on favorite to win the Cy Young Award this season. It doesn’t help that Atlanta’s offense has been nowhere near as powerful as last season’s record-setting lineup — Acuna himself had struggled with just four home runs. The 2024 Braves might now end up being a pitcher-centered club, at least with the way Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez and Max Fried are pitching right now, and we’ll see if Alex Anthopoulos makes an outfield acquisition like he did in 2021, when he acquired Jorge Soler, Joc Pederson, Adam Duvall and Eddie Rosario after Acuna went down that season. — Schoenfield
Record: 35-22
Previous ranking: 8
As much as the rapid maturation of Bobby Witt Jr. into the handful of baseball’s best players grabs your attention, we have to cite the Royals’ starting rotation here — mostly because its success has been so unexpected. On a Cy Young leaderboard full of unexpected frontrunners, Seth Lugo rates right at the top as a shocking entrant. But Cole Ragans and Brady Singer aren’t far behind, while Michael Wacha and Alec Marsh have been good enough that, game in and game out, the Royals are competitive. The rotation ranks third in bWAR and second in fWAR. They’re third in ERA and tied for third in quality starts. Who saw that coming? — Doolittle
Record: 31-26
Previous ranking: 10
The Mariners are in first place in the AL West even though they really aren’t that great at anything. At least that’s true when you look at positional breakdowns. According to the wins above average table at baseball-reference.com, Seattle doesn’t rank in the top 10 at any spot. Not one. The highest rank is at shortstop (primarily J.P. Crawford and Dylan Moore), where the Mariners are 11th. It’s hard to see how this adds up to a first-place club but, so far, it has. However, if this continues deep into the season, it doesn’t feel like the first-place standing will hold up. A Seattle division title would certainly feature a top-five rotation and a return to star-level production by the utterly baffling Julio Rodriguez. — Doolittle
Record: 30-29
Previous ranking: 13
The second full month of the baseball season is coming to an end, and the Padres’ best hitter remains … Jurickson Profar, of course. The Padres are built around three superstars in Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts, and they recently traded for Luis Arraez, a batting champion each of the past two years. But it’s Profar, signed to a $1 million contract this offseason, who has been their biggest contributor, boasting a .323/.421/.495 slash line with nearly as many walks (31) as strikeouts (33). It’s a credit to Profar, who clearly fits in with the Padres a lot better than he did with the Rockies last year. But it’s also a reminder that the Padres’ best players have yet to get going, particularly Machado and Bogaerts, the latter of whom is nursing a fractured left shoulder. — Gonzalez
Record: 28-28
Previous ranking: 11
Say it with us: Another week, another injury for the Red Sox. This week’s casualty is Tyler O’Neill, who hit the IL Wednesday with right knee inflammation. Lucas Giolito, Trevor Story and Garrett Whitlock have already been lost for the season. Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida remain on the injured list. Vaughn Grissom is struggling after missing the first month. Brayan Bello and Nick Pivetta recently returned from injury. It’s been one after another. And yet the Red Sox are somehow at .500. — Castillo
Record: 30-25
Previous ranking: 14
With injuries again surfacing for Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa over the first two months, the Twins remain within striking distance of the Guardians in the AL Central largely because Ryan Jeffers and Max Kepler have emerged to help carry the offense. Jeffers’ slash line is .247/.333/.506 with 10 home runs in 49 games between catcher and designated hitter. Kepler is slashing .282/.343/.484 in 37 games as the team’s primary right fielder. They rank first and second, respectively, on the club in bWAR. The Twins need Correa, Lewis and Buxton to stay healthy and produce to make a deep October run. But you need to reach October first, and Jeffers and Kepler have been indispensable thus far. — Castillo
Record: 29-28
Previous ranking: 19
The Giants came out of Memorial Day weekend with nine wins in a span of 11 games, their only two losses coming in walk-off fashion. Blake Snell was back. Matt Chapman was starting to play like a star. The record had crept back over .500. And then, just like that, another setback: LaMonte Wade Jr., who carried a .470 on-base percentage through his first 52 games, suffered a Grade 2 strain of his left hamstring, joining Michael Conforto and Jung Hoo Lee on the injured list. “He’s as good a left-handed hitter as there is in the league right now,” Giants manager Bob Melvin said of Wade, who will now miss the next four weeks. — Gonzalez
Record: 28-28
Previous ranking: 9
Led by newcomer Shota Imanaga, starting pitching has defined the Cubs through the first two months. Imanaga is dominating, utilizing a rising fastball and dipping split-finger, while teammate Javier Assad has been equally good flashing an unhittable sinker to right-handers. Then there’s rookie Ben Brown, who hurled seven no-hit innings Tuesday in Milwaukee behind a wicked fastball and curve. That came one day after Justin Steele gave up just three hits over seven shutout innings. Starting to get the picture in Chicago? The Cubs rank third in starter’s ERA in the NL. It’s carried them. — Rogers
Record: 27-29
Previous ranking: 12
A funny thing happened while we were waiting for Texas’ powerhouse October rotation to gradually come together through a continually improving injury list. Texas’ high-power offense that helped propel the Rangers to their first title last year has been flat-out mediocre. Texas has dropped from second to 15th in average, third to 12th in OBP and third to 15th in slugging. If the Rangers were hitting as expected, the middling work of the pitching staff would have been good enough to keep Texas solidly in first place, with hopes of a steep ascension as the rotation gets healthier. Instead, Texas’ headaches have turned out to be more widespread than the injuries to Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom. — Doolittle
Record: 24-32
Previous ranking: 17
Is the dynasty crumbling? For most of the first two months, that’s how it’s looked for the Astros. Houston is below replacement in both starting and relief pitching. The offense has been above average but also uneven. Kyle Tucker is having an MVP-level season and Jose Altuve has been as good as ever. However, Alex Bregman has flailed and Jose Abreu simply looks done. Two months in, the Astros have still never gotten truly hot all season. The only reason they remain a factor in the AL West race is the division as a whole has been so disappointing. These are the Astros, and until that little “e” (for eliminated) pops up next to their line in the standings, you can’t count them out. But it ain’t looking good. — Doolittle
Record: 25-30
Previous ranking: 16
The D-backs made an inspired run to the World Series last fall, then bolstered their payroll with some exciting offseason additions. But they have mostly disappointed through the first two months of the season. And while Corbin Carroll‘s offensive struggles have absorbed a lot of the attention, the starting pitching is probably even more to blame. Merrill Kelly, the co-ace to Zac Gallen, made four starts before going on the injured list with a shoulder strain. Eduardo Rodriguez, signed to an $80 million contract, has yet to pitch because of a lat strain. And Jordan Montgomery, the other major addition, has a 4.69 ERA through seven starts. — Gonzalez
Record: 27-28
Previous ranking: 18
One of the best developments with the Tigers this season has been the continued emergence of Tarik Skubal as a bona fide ace. And Wednesday, in the first game of a doubleheader against the Pirates, he punctuated the season’s second month in dramatic fashion, outdueling the electric Jared Jones with seven scoreless innings. Skubal, 27, is now 7-1 with a 2.01 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP through his first 11 starts, striking out 80 batters and walking 11 in 67 innings. With Jack Flaherty and Reese Olson also impressing, the Tigers hold the sixth-lowest starter’s ERA in the AL, giving them a fighting chance in what has become a very competitive AL Central. — Gonzalez
Record: 27-29
Previous ranking: 15
The Rays are the sport’s model franchise because they almost always overcome a payroll shortfall to snatch a playoff spot. But this season has so far proven that even the Rays can’t surmount extensive pitching injuries and widespread underperformance in the batter’s box. On the pitching side, Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen haven’t toed the rubber at all. Zach Eflin is on the injured list. Ryan Pepiot, Pete Fairbanks, Shane Baz and Chris Devenski have all been on the injured list. On the offensive side, Josh Lowe, Brandon Lowe and Jonny DeLuca all missed time with injuries — but a lack of production is the pressing issue. Yandy Diaz is batting .245 after claiming the 2023 AL batting title. Randy Arozarena is hitting .161 with a .571 OPS. Jose Siri is slashing .180/.272/.289. Isaac Paredes is the team’s only All-Star-level hitter with a .296 average and .881 OPS. That hasn’t been nearly enough. — Castillo
Record: 26-29
Previous ranking: 20
Perhaps no game encapsulates the 2024 Toronto Blue Jays’ frustrations better than what transpired at Comerica Park on Sunday when the Blue Jays overcame two five-run deficits only to watch Matt Vierling crank a walk-off three-run home run off closer Jordan Romano in a 14-11 loss. In a season in which the Blue Jays’ offense has been a major letdown, one of the worst bullpens in the sport couldn’t keep the light-hitting Tigers in the ballpark. Time is running out on these Blue Jays. General manager Ross Atkins said it himself earlier this month. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is on a tear after a frigid April, but Bo Bichette, George Springer, Alejandro Kirk and Justin Turner all have an OPS+ of 91 or below. The bullpen, meanwhile, ranks 21st in win probability added. Either the roster performs better or significant changes are likely to come ahead of the July 30 trade deadline. — Castillo
Record: 27-27
Previous ranking: 25
St. Louis hasn’t been great but it’s still in the race thanks, in part, to the newcomers on the mound who were widely criticized when they were acquired. So far, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Sonny Gray have been better than anticipated — especially the former two pitchers, who boast ERAs in the 3s after struggling last season. Gray, on the other hand, has come as anticipated — even with a late start due to an injury. He’s given up 40 hits in 52 innings, walking just 12 over his first nine starts. The trio have kept the Cardinals afloat while their offense has found its footing of late. Perhaps the front office wasn’t so wrong bringing in three older pitchers. We’ll see. — Rogers
Record: 24-32
Previous ranking: 24
A lack of offensive punch — outside of Elly De La Cruz — has banished the Reds to the second tier of teams in NL Central. The Reds currently rank 26th in OPS after finishing 10th in that category last season. Everyone from Spencer Steer to Jonathan India to newcomer Jeimer Candelario has struggled to find rhythm at the plate, and while De La Cruz has stolen 31 bases already, even his OPS dipped below .800 recently. He can’t do it all by himself. Outfielder Will Benson is a great example of the Reds’ struggles so far. He’s shown some pop with eight home runs but is hitting below .200 with 74 strikeouts in just 168 at-bats. It’s a microcosm of Cincinnati at the plate right now. — Rogers
Record: 26-30
Previous ranking: 21
The Pirates’ storyline so far revolves around the young pitching combo of Paul Skenes and Jared Jones. They provide hope for a franchise still looking for help on offense. Skenes lit up the radar gun in his first few starts, and Jones wasn’t far behind him. Pittsburgh will tread lightly using both budding stars, as the team might need to remake its bullpen before it can contend. Thought to be a strength heading into the season, the Pirates’ pen ranks 27th in ERA through the first two months. David Bednar looks very hittable this season compared to 2023, as his ERA hovers just under 7. — Rogers
Record: 25-29
Previous ranking: 23
The Nationals have been competitive — more so than many would have projected — thanks to some solid and surprising performances. CJ Abrams has played well, although has slowed down the past few weeks after a blazing start. MacKenzie Gore has pitched well, combining with Abrams to make the Juan Soto trade look better (and better yet when James Wood arrives at some point this season). Trevor Williams has been excellent and rookie starter Mitchell Parker has emerged out of nowhere to add another arm to the rotation, which has been drastically better than last season. The offense still needs a lot of work, however, as some of the stopgap veterans like Joey Gallo and Eddie Rosario haven’t helped. — Schoenfield
Record: 22-33
Previous ranking: 22
It doesn’t take a nuclear physicist to explain the rough first two months for the Mets: Their best five players were supposed to be Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, Kodai Senga and Edwin Diaz. Senga has been hurt all season, Diaz, now also on the IL, blew four saves in May, and the three position players haven’t hit like they have in the past. Things got so bad last weekend that Lindor simply stood at the plate on a 3-2 pitch with no intention to swing and took a called third strike. And after another Diaz-blown save and five-run 10th inning for the Giants, announcer Gary Cohen had to remind Mets fans that the sun would still come up the next morning. — Schoenfield
Record: 21-34
Previous ranking: 26
This is a bad team with no obvious path to near-term contention, one that needs to start calculating when and how thoroughly it wants to lean into a rebuild. Assuming the Angels’ brass comes to the same conclusion, the Cy Young-level season starter Tyler Anderson has enjoyed should give L.A. a chance to leverage one of the trade deadline’s most alluring upgrades, especially since he has a team-friendly season left on his pact after 2024. If anyone thought the Angels might remain relevant after Shohei Ohtani‘s departure, those notions have to be dead by now. This team needs a fresh start. — Doolittle
Record: 23-34
Previous ranking: 27
The Athletics have punched above their weight over the first two months. but they still have the second worst run differential in the AL. There is not going to be an inspirational swan song in the club’s last season in the Bay Area. However, they did a good thing in converting Mason Miller into a closer, if only to attract contending teams to the possibility of adding an elite ninth-inning hammer. Miller — and this is not a misprint — has a 0.09 FIP this season. Given Oakland’s place on the winning cycle — if it indeed has one — and Miller’s injury history, the A’s should give serious thought to moving Miller while he’s dealing at this level. — Doolittle
Record: 20-35
Previous ranking: 28
After a brutal April, the Rockies have been mostly treading water this month. And a big reason for that has been Austin Gomber, the 30-year-old left-hander who has secretly been one of the game’s best pitchers in May. Gomber has a 0.68 ERA in four starts this month, limiting the Pirates, Rangers, Padres and A’s to three runs (two earned) in 26⅔ innings. The Rockies have won three of those games. Gomber was scratched from his start earlier this week because of discomfort near his elbow, just below his left triceps muscle, but he’s expected to take the ball this weekend at Dodger Stadium. Gomber said it’s nothing serious or altogether foreign to him. The Rockies hope that’s the case. — Gonzalez
Record: 20-37
Previous ranking: 29
Injuries, injuries, injuries. Sandy Alcantara, already out for the season from last September’s Tommy John surgery. Eury Perez, out for the season. Edward Cabrera, currently out with a shoulder issue. Braxton Garrett, missed April with a shoulder problem (although his recent shutout was a good sign). Jesus Luzardo? Missed a few starts. The Marlins have already churned through 25 pitchers. All that led to the early trade of Luis Arraez to the Padres. One season after making the playoffs, the Marlins are back to being the Marlins — and a bad version at that. — Schoenfield
Record: 15-42
Previous ranking: 30
A lack of offense has defined the White Sox over the first two months of the season as they rank last in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging. Almost on cue, their veteran hitters got hurt again this year as Yoan Moncada and Luis Robert Jr. missed most of April and all of May, while Eloy Jimenez has been in and out of the lineup. The team wasn’t supposed to be very good in the first place, but those injuries have simply made Chicago very easy to pitch to. Because of that, the White Sox have almost no chance to beat the good teams around the league, as evidenced by their 6-30 mark against plus-.500 squads. — Rogers
Forget everything you thought you knew in August.
At the midpoint of the season, Penn State has three losses, Clemson has three losses, Texas is trying to claw its way back into the playoff conversation, and undefeated Indiana is … a top five team?!
“This showed the country we’re a real team,” Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza told reporters after the Hoosiers’ 30-20 win at Oregon. “We’re not just a one-hit wonder.”
Separation has started to occur, true playoff contenders have begun to emerge through statement wins, and the battle for No. 1 is ongoing. Alabama has made a case for the selection committee’s top one-loss team, and Notre Dame has battled back after an 0-2 start to position itself as the top two-loss team.
The jockeying for top seeds, first-round byes and first-round home games continues, but Week 7’s top 12 prediction is a snapshot of who’s got the early edge if the ranking were released halfway through the season.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The Buckeyes now have two impressive road wins, adding Saturday’s 34-16 victory at Illinois to the Sept. 27 win at Washington. The Buckeyes have defeated three straight Big Ten opponents who are all at .500 or better, including two on the road. Miami has one road win and hasn’t left its home state yet. Ohio State’s defense has been one of the best in the country, and quarterback Julian Sayin has been one of the nation’s most efficient, mistake-free quarterbacks. The Buckeyes are a complete team, ranked in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency — a historic trait of the selection committee’s past playoff teams. The 70-0 win against FCS Grambling, though, impacts some of that. Ohio State’s nonconference win against Texas will continue to be valuable within the committee meeting room, as the Longhorns’ win against rival Oklahoma bolsters their chance to be a CFP top 25 team.
Why they could be lower: Indiana just earned the best win in the country, and Miami still has one of the best overall résumés. The Canes were on a bye week but got another boost Friday night when South Florida hammered previously undefeated North Texas 63-36. Some committee members would argue that Miami’s win against Notre Dame is better than Ohio State’s win against Texas.
Need to know: Ohio State has more than a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games, according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan. The Buckeyes are trying to avoid a fifth straight loss to their rivals.
Why they could be here: The selection committee typically doesn’t move teams around if they don’t play, unless it happens as a result of shuffling around them. Ohio State’s win at Illinois strengthened its résumé, and the Buckeyes were also helped by Texas beating Oklahoma. It didn’t help the Canes that Florida State picked up its third loss, this one to an unranked Pitt team. Miami’s overall body of work, though, is still worthy of consideration for the top spot. South Florida’s 63-36 lopsided win Friday night against previously undefeated North Texas further enhanced the Canes’ 49-12 drubbing of the Bulls on Sept. 13. What’s really separating Miami from Ohio State, though, is the season-opening win against Notre Dame, which has played its way back into the top 25 after winning four straight.
Why they could be higher: Miami has a case to be ranked No. 1 with wins against Notre Dame, South Florida, Florida State and Florida. The win against the Irish continues to look good after Notre Dame pulled away for a convincing win against NC State on Saturday. Entering Week 7, Miami was No. 2 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, with a slight edge over Ohio State.
Need to know: Entering Saturday, no team in the country had a better chance to win out than Miami (32.1%), according to ESPN Analytics. Miami is projected to win each of its remaining games — and none of them are likely to feature a top 25 opponent.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at SMU. This will be the first time Miami leaves its home state, and it’s not an easy trip. It’s also the last chance to make a first impression on the CFP selection committee, which will release its first of six rankings the Tuesday after this game.
Why they could be here: The Hoosiers just earned the best win in the country, beating Oregon on its home turf, where the Ducks had won 18 straight games. Indiana’s defense looked legit, and the Hoosiers have a Heisman hopeful quarterback in Mendoza. IU has now reeled off three straight wins against Big Ten opponents, including back-to-back road wins against Iowa and Oregon. The selection committee would likely hold the Hoosiers back from a higher spot right now, though, because half of their wins came against Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and FCS Indiana State.
Why they could be higher: The selection committee compares common opponents, and while the Hoosiers don’t play Ohio State during the regular season, they both played Illinois. Indiana hammered the Fighting Illini 63-10, handing coach Bret Bielema the worst loss of his career. Ohio State won with relative ease Saturday, beating Illinois 34-16, but it wasn’t the kind of jaw-dropping beatdown the Hoosiers executed.
Need to know: Indiana’s head-to-head win against Oregon impacts both the Big Ten standings and the CFP seeding process. If IU’s only loss were to Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game, the Hoosiers could still finish in the top four and earn a first-round bye because those top four seeds are no longer reserved for conference champions. This was the only game on Indiana’s schedule the Hoosiers weren’t favored to win.
Toughest remaining game: Geez. Nov. 1 at Maryland is suddenly the biggest looming obstacle. The Terps are a respectable 4-2 and have lost their past two games by a combined seven points. The Nov. 8 trip to Penn State is a shadow of the test it once appeared to be after the Nittany Lions have lost three straight, reaching a new low with Saturday’s loss to Northwestern.
Why they could be here: The Aggies eventually pulled away from a stingy Florida defense to remain undefeated and with a lead in the SEC race. The Aggies and Ole Miss are the only undefeated teams remaining in their conference, but Texas A&M entered Saturday ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric — ahead of both Miami and Ohio State. The Week 3 win at Notre Dame continues to elevate the Aggies’ résumé, but it’s the only road win so far.
Why they could be lower: Some selection committee members could give Alabama more credit for three straight wins against ranked opponents, including two on the road. Texas A&M has only one win against a ranked opponent, and wins against UTSA and Utah State don’t help much.
Need to know: The Aggies are about to enter their season-defining stretch of three straight road games (Arkansas, LSU and Missouri). If Texas A&M loses a game, it will also likely lose the debate with one-loss Alabama if it hasn’t already.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Texas. The Longhorns might have had a turning point Saturday in their win against rival Oklahoma. If Texas can continue to improve offensively, it could be one of the most complete teams the Aggies face in the second half of the season.
Why they could be here: The Tide earned a second road win against a previously undefeated team, this time escaping Missouri to remain undefeated in the SEC. Alabama has now won five straight games since its season-opening loss at Florida State, including three straight against ranked and previously undefeated SEC teams. That résumé combined with the evident growth of quarterback Ty Simpson gives the Tide the strongest case to be the committee’s highest-ranked one-loss team. Heading into Saturday, the only other one-loss team that came close to the Tide in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric was Illinois, and the Fighting Illini lost to Ohio State in Week 7.
Why they could be lower: Ole Miss wasn’t pretty Saturday against Washington State, but the Rebels are still undefeated and Bama’s not. Plus, Alabama’s loss is now to a three-loss Florida State after the Noles lost to Pitt.
Need to know: The selection committee considers injuries to key players, and Alabama had a few scares Saturday. Receiver Derek Meadows appeared to be knocked unconscious in the first quarter, and coach Kalen DeBoer later said Meadows suffered a concussion. Running back Jam Miller, who had 136 yards in the Tide’s win against Vandy, also suffered a concussion in the fourth quarter.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Auburn. The Tigers gave Georgia fits Saturday night and controlled the first half. They’ll have home-field advantage in the Iron Bowl, where anything can happen.
Why they could be here: The Rebels were underwhelming after a bye week and fortunate to beat Washington State at home 24-21. The committee pays attention to how teams win, and the Rebels trailed 14-10 late in the third quarter. Still, Ole Miss has wins against Tulane, which is in the running for the Group of 5 playoff spot, and the committee will continue to reward the Sept. 27 home win against LSU. The Rebels also have a budding star in quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who accounted for three total touchdowns against the Cougars on Saturday.
Why they could be lower: Georgia State, Kentucky and Arkansas are a combined 5-12 and unranked, and the win against the Wildcats is the Rebels’ lone road win.
Need to know: Ole Miss has back-to-back road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma looming, what’s likely to be its last games against ranked opponents. If the Rebels were to lose both, the rest of their schedule could raise concerns with some committee meeting members. Ole Miss needs to find a statement road win this month to help avoid that debate.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Georgia. The Bulldogs found a way to beat a gritty Auburn team on the road and are looking better than the Sooners right now.
Why they could be here: The Bulldogs were outplayed by Auburn in the first half but found a way to win on the road against a decent team that had a bye week to prepare. Georgia remains one of the country’s top one-loss teams but will be stuck behind Alabama in the committee meeting room because of the head-to-head tiebreaker as long as their records are comparable. Georgia could also be ahead of Oregon because the Bulldogs’ lone loss was in overtime on the road, while Oregon lost at home Saturday to IU.
Why they could be lower: Georgia’s best win is against a Tennessee team that hasn’t exactly wowed anyone yet, and the Bulldogs needed overtime to do it. Texas Tech is still undefeated, and some committee members could reward it for that ahead of both Georgia and Oregon.
Need to know: Georgia’s two best remaining chances to impress the selection committee will be Saturday against Ole Miss and in the regular-season finale against Georgia Tech. If Georgia beats the Jackets, it’s still possible they could have a win against the eventual ACC champs.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 vs. Ole Miss. If the Rebels play like they did in their win against LSU — a complete game — they’ll give Georgia trouble.
Why they could be here: The Ducks faced their toughest opponent to date and lost at home to Indiana, a significant setback in the Big Ten race but hardly a dagger in their CFP hopes. The bigger problem is the lack of a true statement win, as the Sept. 27 double overtime win at Penn State has been significantly devalued following the three-loss Nittany Lions’ unraveling. A win against FCS Montana State isn’t going to impress the committee, nor will a win against an Oklahoma State team that fired its head coach. Oregon’s best win so far is at 4-2 Northwestern, which also beat Penn State. Indiana’s defense also gave Oregon its biggest challenge of the season, holding the Ducks to a season-low 20 points.
Why they could be lower: Oregon didn’t exactly pass the eye test against better competition, as quarterback Dante Moore threw two interceptions and was sacked six times. Oregon has three pick-sixes this season, its most in a season since 2018. Oregon was just 3-of-14 on third downs and was held to 81 rushing yards.
Need to know: That might have been Oregon’s last chance during the regular season to impress the selection committee with a win against a ranked opponent. If the Ducks run the table and finish as a one-loss team — which they should barring an upset — that could come back to haunt them on Selection Day. Another one-loss team like Alabama that has multiple wins against CFP top 25 teams will get the edge in a debate. That doesn’t mean their playoff hopes are in any danger, but it could mean the difference between hosting a first-round home game and traveling.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Washington. The Ducks also have a tricky matchup Nov. 22 against USC but will have home-field advantage. Ending the season on the road against a respectable Washington team after a tough game against the Trojans is more difficult than it appears.
Why they could be here: The Red Raiders have gained traction and legitimized their place in the playoff with three straight convincing wins against Big 12 opponents with winning records. Entering Week 7, Texas Tech was ranked No. 8 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, which gave the average top 25 opponent a 44.1% chance to achieve the same undefeated record against the same opponents. The Red Raiders have the best chance to reach the Big 12 title game and win it, which would guarantee them a spot in the field.
Why they could be lower: Texas Tech’s weak nonconference schedule includes a win against FCS Arkansas-Pine Bluff (2-3), Kent State (2-4) and Oregon State (0-7). Their best win is Sept. 20 at Utah, which isn’t as impressive as most of the other contenders’ statement wins.
Need to know: Backup quarterback storylines have been integral to the CFP selection process — for better or for worse, depending on the situation — and the Red Raiders have proved on multiple occasions now that they can win without injured starter Behren Morton. He was hurt again Saturday and left the game against Kansas, but the Big 12’s third-leading passer also had to leave against Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Utah with injuries. The committee will appreciate the fact that Texas Tech has a No. 2 capable of winning in Will Hammond.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 vs. BYU. The Cougars and Red Raiders could face each other in the Big 12 championship game, but they have to face each other during the regular season first.
Why they could be here: Even the speedy return of injured quarterback John Mateer wasn’t enough to overcome a stingy Texas defense Saturday, as the Sooners were held to just six points. Oklahoma’s Week 2 win against Michigan is still one of the better nonconference wins in the country, though, and helps separate the Sooners from some other teams with weaker nonconference lineups. The selection committee also respects wins against opponents with .500 records or better, and the Sept. 20 win against Auburn would still be favorable in the committee meeting room.
Why they could be lower: Texas was the best defense OU has faced so far, and it exposed some weaknesses teams like Illinois State, Temple and Kent State couldn’t. Mateer threw three interceptions and completed 20 of 38 pass attempts just 17 days after surgery on his right hand.
Need to know: Oklahoma entered Saturday with the most difficult remaining schedule in the FBS, according to ESPN Analytics. The Sooners travel to South Carolina on Saturday before ending the season against what should be five straight ranked opponents.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Alabama. The Tide have won five straight and will have a bye week and home-field advantage.
Why they could be here: The Tigers’ lone loss is to an undefeated Ole Miss on the road, and LSU’s defense continues to be one of the best in the country. LSU held off a pesky South Carolina team Saturday, limiting the Gamecocks to just one touchdown.
Why they could be lower: Wins against Clemson and Florida aren’t going to separate LSU from other one-loss teams, and the Tigers have struggled to consistently play complete football in all three phases. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier threw two interceptions against South Carolina, and the Tigers also lost a fumble. LSU is still searching for a statement win.
Need to know: One of the statistics the selection committee has historically leaned on is called “relative scoring defense,” which is something it would probably look at with LSU. How are the Tigers doing defensively against teams that typically score more than they allow? Those tests are yet to come, but the 24-19 loss to Ole Miss likely didn’t help that particular metric. If LSU is going to lean on its elite defense, it has to show up against the best offenses.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Alabama. It’s not just that it’s Bama — it’s the third straight game against a ranked opponent, as LSU faces Vandy and Texas A&M before the Tide. If LSU loses to one of them, it will be under tremendous pressure to win in Tuscaloosa.
Why they could be here: The Vols were fortunate to beat a 2-4 Arkansas team at home — one week after they escaped Mississippi State with an overtime win. It hasn’t been pretty, and Tennessee is still searching for a statement win. They’ve got an FCS win, a lopsided win against UAB and a decent nonconference win against a 3-3 Syracuse team that was more formidable with its starting quarterback in the lineup at the time they played them. That’s a detail the selection committee would consider.
Why they could be lower: Tennessee hasn’t looked like an elite team, struggling to stop the run and racking up penalties. The Vols were tied at 17 at the half with a team that recently fired its head coach. The committee has overlooked a lack of statement wins before, but typically that forgiveness happens when a contender is controlling games — not squeaking by unranked teams.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, the Vols would be bumped out to make room for the fifth-highest ranked conference champion, which is guaranteed a spot in the 12-team field. Right now that team — the American champion — would be ranked outside the top 12.
Toughest remaining game: Saturday at Alabama. Tennessee’s lone loss was in overtime to Georgia, which also lost to Alabama.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 3 Indiana
No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Alabama
No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Oklahoma at No. 7 Georgia
No. 9 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Alabama winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 LSU/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Indiana
No. 10 Oklahoma/No. 7 Georgia winner vs. No. 2 Miami
No. 9 Texas Tech/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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