Starmer’s decision over Diane Abbott is part of a wider strategy – but polling suggests trouble ahead
Does Diane Abbott and the row over her future matter?
Keir Starmer clearly calculated not so much, although I’m told it blew up far more than the leader’s office expected, with the mess and delay a product of disagreements internally about what to do with her.
High-profile Labour politicians like Jess Phillips are now kicking off, and televised rallies in front of supporters in Hackney have undoubtedly obliterated the party’s attempts to get messages out on NHS waiting times.
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But does it move the dial politically – particularly when the party is 27 points ahead according to the latest Sky News/YouGov poll and Sir Keir is keen to do all he can to preserve relations with the Jewish community?
Possibly not in the first instance. But it may have secondary effects.
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Diane Abbott: ‘I’m banned from running for Labour’
Sir Keir is avowedly determined to present a “changed” Labour Party, away from the one that held Jeremy Corbyn in high esteem.
The decisions about Ms Abbott are part of that wider strategy. There are still parts of the party nostalgic for this era, however, and Sir Keir famously won the leadership trying to keep them onside.
But there’s a paradox in the polling that suggests trouble ahead. Yes, if the polls are to be believed (and many Tories don’t) Labour is on course for a decent majority and control of Number 10.
However, Sir Keir’s own ratings are – less than stellar.
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Poll: Labour surges to 27-point lead
The YouGov/Sky News poll asked this week whether voters thought he would be a good or bad prime minister. Almost half – 47% – said bad. The older the voter, the more pessimistic they are.
Sir Keir is starting from a low base – not as bad as Rishi Sunak, but still bad. By contrast, only 33% said they thought he’d be good.
That level of enthusiasm suggests Sir Keir may not enjoy much of a public opinion honeymoon, just at a point where he is likely to have to start by making difficult decisions, most notably on raising taxes.
One of the themes of this election has been the party’s clarity that while it will promise not to raise income tax, national insurance and corporation tax, no such bar exists on other taxes.
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With rules to restrain borrowing lifted from the Tories and unsustainably tight Whitehall spending plans, something has to give.
Judging by the first week of the campaign, that seems to be tax – a subject the Tories are likely to dwell on in the coming days.
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If he is suddenly unpopular, Sir Keir needs an army of supporters to insulate him.
But some of those are the supporters who are unhappy with his treatment of Ms Abbott.
This row might not matter that much now or in this campaign, but if the bonds between leader and party are easily frayed then there’s trouble ahead.
Rishi Sunak could tell him that.
Politics
Keir Starmer says closer EU ties will be good for UK jobs, bills and borders ahead of key talks
Sir Keir Starmer has said closer ties with the EU will be good for the UK’s jobs, bills and borders ahead of a summit where he could announce a deal with the bloc.
The government is set to host EU leaders in London on Monday as part of its efforts to “reset” relations post-Brexit.
A deal granting the UK access to a major EU defence fund could be on the table, according to reports – but disagreements over a youth mobility scheme and fishing rights could prove to be a stumbling block.
The prime minister has appeared to signal a youth mobility deal could be possible, telling The Times that while freedom of movement is a “red line”, youth mobility does not come under this.
His comment comes after Kaja Kallas, the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs, said on Friday work on a defence deal was progressing but “we’re not there yet”.
Sir Keir met European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen later that day while at a summit in Albania.
Ursula von der Leyen and Sir Keir had a brief meeting earlier this week. Pic: PA
If agreed, the deal will be the third in two weeks, following trade agreements with India and the US.
Sir Keir said: “First India, then the United States – in the last two weeks alone that’s jobs saved, faster growth and wages rising.
“More money in the pockets of British working people, achieved through striking deals not striking poses.
“Tomorrow, we take another step forward, with yet more benefits for the United Kingdom as the result of a strengthened partnership with the European Union.”
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Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has said she is “worried” about what the PM might have negotiated.
Ms Badenoch – who has promised to rip up the deal with the EU if it breaches her red lines on Brexit – said: “Labour should have used this review of our EU trade deal to secure new wins for Britain, such as an EU-wide agreement on Brits using e-gates on the continent.
“Instead, it sounds like we’re giving away our fishing quotas, becoming a rule-taker from Brussels once again and getting free movement by the back door. This isn’t a reset, it’s a surrender.”
Moody’s credit rating agency downgraded the credit rating of the United States government from Aaa to Aa1, citing the rising national debt as the primary driver behind the reduction in creditworthiness.
According to the May 16 announcement from the rating agency, US lawmakers have failed to stem annual deficits or reduce spending over the years, leading to a growing national debt. The rating agency wrote:
“We do not believe that material multi-year reductions in mandatory spending and deficits will result from the current fiscal proposals under consideration. Over the next decade, we expect larger deficits as entitlement spending rises while government revenue remains broadly flat.”
The credit downgrade is only one degree out of the 21-notch rating scale used by the company to assess the credit health of an entity.
Despite the negative short to medium-term credit outlook, Moody’s maintained a positive outlook on the long-term health of the United States, citing its robust economy and the status of the US dollar as the global reserve currency as strengths, reflecting “balanced” lending risks.
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Investors react to Moody’s US credit revision
Moody’s announcement drew mixed reactions from investors and market participants, leaving many unconvinced by the agency’s revised outlook.
Gabor Gurbacs, CEO and founder of crypto loyalty rewards company Pointsville, cited the rating agency’s previous credit assessments during times of financial stress as unreliable, signaling that the outlook was too optimistic.
“This is the same Moody’s that gave Aaa ratings to sub-prime mortgage-backed securities that led to the 2007-2008 financial crisis,” the executive wrote in a May 17 X post.
However, macroeconomic investor Jim Bianco argued that the recent Moody’s credit outlook does not reflect a real downgrade in the perception of US government creditworthiness and characterized the announcement as a “nothing burger.”
US government debt surpassed $36 trillion in January 2025 and shows no signs of slowing, despite recent efforts by Elon Musk and others to reduce federal spending and curtail the national debt.
As the debt climbs and investors lose faith in US government securities, bond yields will spike, causing the debt service payments to go up, further inflating the national debt.
This creates a vicious cycle as the government will have to entice investors with ever-greater yields to incentivize them to purchase government debt.
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Politics
Scotland’s former first minister Humza Yousaf hits out at Starmer’s ‘dog whistle’ stance on immigration
Former Scottish first minister Humza Yousaf has attacked Sir Keir Starmer for his “dog whistle” stance on immigration after the prime minister said the UK risked becoming an “island of strangers”.
In a piece penned by Mr Yousaf for LBC, the former leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) repeated claims the prime minister’s recent remarks on immigration were a “modern echo” of Enoch Powell’s infamous 1968 Rivers Of Blood speech.
The prime minister stirred controversy earlier this week when he argued Britain “risked becoming an island of strangers” if immigration levels were not cut.
After many MPs criticised his language, Sir Keir rejected the comparison to Powell, with his official spokesperson saying migrants have made a “massive contribution” to society but his point was that the Tories “lost control of the system”.
File pic: PA
In the LBC piece published on Saturday, Mr Yousaf said: “Powell’s 1968 speech warned of immigration as an existential threat to ‘our blood and our culture’, stoking racial panic that led directly to decades of hostile migration policies.
“Starmer’s invocation of ‘strangers’ is a modern echo – a dog-whistle to voters who blame migrants for every social ill, from stretched public services to the cost-of-living crisis.
“It betrays a failure to understand, or deliberately mask the fact that Britain’s prosperity depends on migration, on openness not building walls.”
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Starmer’s speech divides opinion
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Sir Keir made the comments at a news conference in which measures were announced to curb net migration, including banning care homes from recruiting overseas, new English language requirements for visa holders and stricter rules on gaining British citizenship.
The package is aimed at reducing the number of people coming to the UK by up to 100,000 per year, though the government has not officially set a target.
The government is under pressure to tackle legal migration, as well as illegal immigration, amid Reform UK’s surge in the polls.
Mr Yousaf concluded his article saying the UK was “on the brink of possibly handing the keys of No 10 to Nigel Farage”.
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