Donald Trump has become the first former US president to be criminally convicted – but what could the historic verdict mean for his ongoing election campaign?
The former president covered up a $130,000 (£102,000) payment to porn star Stormy Daniels as part of a “hush money” scheme to bury stories he thought might hurt his presidential campaign in 2016.
The case was the first of four criminal cases against Trump to go to trial, and marked the first time a former president has faced criminal charges.
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Trump: ‘This is a rigged trial’
It is unlikely the remaining three cases will go to trial before the November election.
With the hush money verdict in, Sky News takes a look at what could happen to Trump’s quest for reelection now he’s been convicted.
Image: Pic: Reuters
Can Trump still run for president?
Yes. The US Constitution sets out three main requirements for being eligible to become president – and none of them reference being a convicted criminal.
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Candidates must have been born in the US, be over 35, and have lived in the US for at least 14 years.
“Nothing prevents him from running for president and being elected, even if he is in jail at the time of the election,” Elizabeth Wydra, president of the progressive Constitutional Accountability Centre, told the LA Times.
That’s despite people with a felony conviction – a crime that can be punished by a year or more in prison – not being allowed to vote in some states.
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What happens next for Donald Trump?
But what if he were to be elected while in prison?
This is a little more complicated, firstly because it’s not clear if Trump will be sent to prison following the guilty verdict.
The convictions are class E felonies in New York, the lowest tier in the state, with each carrying a maximum sentence of four years.
In choosing the sentence, the judge will have to take into account Trump’s age – he’s now 77– his lack of previous criminal convictions, and the fact that the case involves a non-violent crime.
Even if the judge, Justice Juan Merchan, opts for a custodial sentence, it’s likely Trump will appeal the guilty verdict – and expect to be on bail until that hearing.
Image: Stormy Daniels in Manhattan in 2018. Pic: AP
That process could go all the way to the Court of Appeals, and, importantly for Trump, could drag on for months – possibly even past November’s election.
If Trump were to be elected while serving time, the situation becomes more complicated still, with even constitutional experts unsure.
“It’s just guessing,” Erwin Chemerinsky, a constitutional law expert at the University of California, Berkeley, told the New York Times earlier this year.
“We’re so far removed from anything that’s ever happened.”
Image: A court sketch of Justice Juan Merchan. Pic: Reuters
Could power transfer to the vice president?
In theory, experts say, there is nothing to stop Trump from taking office, even if he were to be behind bars.
There is a provision – the 25th Amendment of the US Constitution – which provides a process to transfer authority to the vice president if the president is “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office”.
However, that would require the approval of the vice president and members of Trump’s cabinet – who will have been hand-picked by him and will no doubt be loyalists.
It is more likely, experts say, that Trump would look to sue for his release or seek a pardon to allow him to govern.
Image: Pic: Reuters
How will the guilty verdict impact the election?
Opinion polls carried out prior to Thursday’s verdict suggested it could pose a significant political danger for Trump.
In an April poll, one in four Republicans said they would not vote for Trump if he was found guilty in a criminal trial.
In the same survey, 60% of independents said they would not vote for Trump if he was convicted of a crime.
What do the experts say about its potential impact?
Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster, said he doubted a quarter of Republicans would actually shun Trump – but he said even a small number being turned off by a guilty verdict could help Joe Biden in a close election.
He said the nature of the New York case, which was brought by a Democratic prosecutor and relies on untested legal strategies, would help Trump and fellow Republicans frame a guilty verdict as a political hit job.
“If I were trying to design a court case that would be easy for Republicans to dismiss as a partisan witch hunt, I would design exactly the case that’s being brought in New York,” he said.
Image: Donald Trump speaks to the media during his trial. Pic: Reuters
Republican consultant Tricia McLaughlin said she thought a guilty verdict would have a psychological impact on Trump because he hates losing.
It would also likely mean financial resources are diverted to legal bills because he would almost certainly appeal, she added.
Analyst Bill Galston said he didn’t expect a guilty verdict would have a significant impact on the presidential race.
“In the end, this amounts to lying about sex. I think the view probably of the majority of Americans is that everybody lies about sex,” said Mr Galston, who has worked on Democratic presidential campaigns.
When Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his European allies meet Donald Trump in Washington, a huge amount is at stake.
Ukrainian officials are reported to feel betrayed by the US president, who appears to have shifted position to side with Vladimir Putin on a number of key points in the wake of the meeting with him in Alaska.
Trumphas undermined the unity of the Western alliance by abandoning their calls for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine.
Image: Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s last meeting with Donald Trump at the White House ended in disaster. Pic: AP/ Mystyslav Chernov
He is no longer threatening more severe sanctions, and more worryingly still he seems open to the idea of making the Ukrainians hand over territory the Russians have not yet captured.
He and his real estate lawyer turned rookie negotiator Steve Witkoff seem to believe the conflict can be resolved by an exchange of territory. Putin on the other hand has made it clear he is fighting to extinguish Ukraine as an independent and democratic entity.
Ukrainians say that for Zelenskyy, handing over land his troops have been fighting to defend since 2014 would be politically suicidal and strategically insane.
Sergeant Andriy Poluhin, from the Ukrainian 24th Brigade, has fought the Russians in Donetsk on and off since 2015 and is currently based in the fiercely embattled town of Chasiv Yar.
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He’s typical of many Ukrainians, appalled at the idea his country would have to hand over land so many of their comrades have died fighting for.
Putin’s claim that he wants to end the war and stop the killing, he says, is self-evidently false.
“It’s a lie, it’s obviously a lie. I think it’s not only my thoughts or Ukrainian ones, but everyone who deals with Russia understands he just lies,” he says.
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Behind the scenes in Alaska with the Sky News team
Many would agree – except the US president himself, who says he believes the Russian leader wants the killing to end.
The challenge for Zelenskyy and his European outriders when they go to the White House is avoiding a repeat of the disastrous Oval Office encounter between him and Trump and his vice president in February.
They need to steer Trump back to their side of the argument without angering the famously thin-skinned president and driving him further towards Moscow.
The unity of the alliance against Putin has never been so threatened.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy could “end the war with Russia almost immediately, if he wants to”, Donald Trump has said – ahead of crucial White House talks on the future of Ukraine.
Mr Trump made the comment in a series of social media posts throwing forward to his meeting with the Ukrainian president, who will be supported by Sir Keir Starmer and other European leaders.
The allies are travelling to Washington DC with the aim of protecting Ukrainefrom having to concede key regions to Russia in exchange for peace, following the US president’s high-profile meeting with Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday.
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What happened when Zelenskyy last went to the White House?
“President Zelenskyy of Ukraine can end the war with Russia almost immediately, if he wants to, or he can continue to fight,” Mr Trump shared on his own network, Truth Social, on Sunday. “Remember how it started,” he added, before highlighting the annexation of Crimea.
Describing today as a “big day” at the White House, he added: “Never had so many European Leaders at one time. My great honor to host them!!!.”
Image: Pic: @realDonaldTrump/ Truth Social
Sir Keir and six other political heavyweights will present a united front alongside Mr Zelenskyy, who is expecting to face calls to surrender full control of Donetsk and Luhansk– two mineral-rich regions where large areas are currently occupied by Russian troops.
In September 2022, Moscow announced it was officially annexing them, alongside the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, in a move rejected and condemned as illegal by the West.
Image: Putin and Trump held talks without Zelenskyy in Alaska on Friday. Pic: AP
At today’s Oval Office encounter, Mr Zelenskyy will be joined by France’s Emmanuel Macron, Germany’s Friedrich Merz, Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and Alexander Stubb, president of Finland, as well as head of NATO Mark Rutte and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, and Sir Keir.
They are set to arrive at midday (5pm UK time). Mr Trump and Mr Zelenskyy will hold a bilateral meeting first, before a multilateral meeting with the rest of the European leaders.
In a message on X on Sunday, before Mr Trump’s posts, the Ukrainian president said strong unity from Europe was “essential” to achieve an end to the war, and that it was “impossible” for Ukraine to “give up or trade land”.
He said a ceasefire was necessary for a deal to be worked on, writing: “We have to stop the killings. Putin has many demands but we do not know all of them.
“If there are really as many as we heard, then it will take time to go through them all. It is impossible to do this under the pressure of weapons.”
Image: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, right, joined Mr Zelenskyy at a news conference on Sunday. Pic: AP
What is the ‘NATO-like’ security guarantee?
Following the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, the two leaders said they had agreed on some points but did not elaborate further.
Speaking to CNN on Sunday, US special envoy Steve Witkoff said: “We were able to win the following concession: that the United States could offer Article 5-like protection, which is one of the real reasons why Ukraine wants to be in NATO.”
Article 5 is a core principle of the 32-member collective, which states that an armed attack against one or more of its members shall be considered an attack against all. It has only been invoked once, by the US, in the wake of the 9/11 attacks in 2001.
Image: Putin and Trump in Alaska, each flanked by people from their administrations. Pic: Reuters
Russia has repeatedly insisted that Ukraine cannot be allowed to join NATO and has dismissed the idea that NATO member forces could be peacekeepers under some sort of ceasefire deal.
Mr Witkoff, who has held previous discussions with Mr Putin on ending the war, said Friday’s summit was the first time he had heard the Russian leader agree to the suggestion of NATO-like protection – and called it “game-changing”.
In a post on X, Russian envoy Mikhail Ulyanov said Russia agrees a future peace agreement “should provide reliable security assurances or guarantees for Ukraine”.
But Moscow should also get efficient security guarantees, he added. “What the West has to offer? Apparently they haven’t yet started to think about it. It is a mistake, which needs to be corrected.”
He also said efforts now should focus on the “main goal – the need to elaborate quickly an efficient long-term peace accord, not a questionable ceasefire which diverts attention”.
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Behind the scenes in Alaska with the Sky News team
No talk of ceasefire after summit
Despite prior threats of severe sanctions for Russia should a ceasefire not be agreed during the talks in Alaska, there was no mention of this from Mr Trump afterwards. Instead, he said he wanted to focus on a long-term deal for peace.
Mr Putin has long refused to agree to a ceasefire as a precondition for talks to end the war, prompting fears that Russia could continue gaining ground in Ukraine as negotiations take place.
At a news conference on Sunday, Ms von der Leyen said the aim was to “stop the killing”, and suggested a ceasefire and a peace deal would have that same impact.
Mr Trump has previously said today’s meeting with Mr Zelenskyy could potentially pave the way for a three-way meeting with Mr Putin.
Vladimir Putin has agreed to allow Ukraine’s allies to offer it a NATO-like security guarantee as part of an eventual deal to end the war, according to US special envoy Steve Witkoff.
Speaking to CNN on Sunday, Mr Witkoff, who was by the US president’s side at the summit, said: “We were able to win the following concession: That the United States could offer Article 5-like protection, which is one of the real reasons why Ukraine wants to be in NATO.”
Image: File pic: AP
Article 5 is a core principle of the 32-member collective, which states that an armed attack against one or more of its members shall be considered an attack against all. It has only been invoked once, by the US, in the wake of the 9/11 attacks in 2001.
Russia has repeatedly insisted that Ukraine cannot be allowed to join NATO and has dismissed the idea that NATO member forces could be peacekeepers under some sort of ceasefire deal.
Mr Witkoff, who has previously met with Mr Putin to discuss an end to the Ukraine war, said Friday’s summit was the first time he had heard the Russian president agree to the suggestion of NATO-like protection – and called it “game-changing”.
Image: Witkoff (far right) with Trump, Putin and their delegations in Alaska. Pic: Reuters
His comments came as Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels.
The Ukrainian president said in a post on X: “This is a historic decision that the United States is ready to take part in security guarantees for Ukraine.
“Security guarantees, as a result of our joint work, must really be very practical, delivering protection on land, in the air, and at sea, and must be developed with Europe’s participation.”
Image: Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Ursula von der Leyen on Sunday. Pic: AP
Ms von der Leyen, speaking at a news conference with the Ukrainian president, said the European Union “is ready to do its share”.
EU leaders to join Zelenskyy at White House
Sunday afternoon also saw Ms von der Leyen and Mr Zelenskyy dial in to a meeting with the coalition of the willing, a peacekeeping alliance of European leaders – some of whom will accompany Mr Zelenskyy to meet with Mr Trump tomorrow.
Ms von der Leyen will be at the crunch talks in Washington DC, as will Sir Keir Starmer, France’s Emmanuel Macron and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni.
Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will also be in attendance, after the US president reportedly extended an invitation to European leaders.
Image: Mr Zelenskyy clashed with Mr Trump during his trip to Washington in February. Pic: Reuters
Mr Putin has reportedly made demands to take control of the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine during his summit with Mr Trump as a condition for ending the war.
In exchange, Russia would give up other Ukrainian territories held by its troops, according to several news reports citing sources close to the matter.
Russian troops currently occupy large parts of the two regions and, in September 2022, Moscow announced it was officially annexing them, alongside the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions, in a move rejected and condemned as illegal by the West.
Mr Trump is said to be planning to urge Mr Zelenskyy to agree to the conditions as part of a peace deal to end the war.
That’s despite the Ukrainian president previously ruling out formally handing any territory to Moscow, which he says would be impossible under the country’s constitution, and would deprive Ukraine of defensive lines and open the way for Moscow to conduct further offensives.
Image: Mr Putin and Mr Trump shake hands at the Alaska summit. Pic: AP
In coordinated statements following the Alaska summit, European leaders said Mr Zelenskyy must play a greater role in future talks, and that peace cannot be achieved without him.
The US president said the Washington talk with Mr Zelenskyy could potentially pave the way for a three-way meeting with Mr Putin.
On Saturday, Downing Street insisted Sir Keir and other allies stand ready to support the next phase of talks to end the war.
“At the meeting that will take place at the White House tomorrow, the Prime Minister, with other European partners, stands ready to support this next phase of further talks and will reaffirm that his backing for Ukraine will continue as long as it takes,” a statement from No 10 said.