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Donald Trump has become the first former US president to be criminally convicted – but what could the historic verdict mean for his ongoing election campaign?

A jury in New York deliberated for nine-and-a-half hours before unanimously agreeing Trump is guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records to commit election fraud.

The former president covered up a $130,000 (£102,000) payment to porn star Stormy Daniels as part of a “hush money” scheme to bury stories he thought might hurt his presidential campaign in 2016.

The case was the first of four criminal cases against Trump to go to trial, and marked the first time a former president has faced criminal charges.

Follow live: Trump says he’s ‘a very innocent man’ after verdict

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Trump: ‘This is a rigged trial’

It is unlikely the remaining three cases will go to trial before the November election.

With the hush money verdict in, Sky News takes a look at what could happen to Trump’s quest for reelection now he’s been convicted.

Donald Trump looks on during his criminal trial at New York State Supreme Court.
Pic: Reuters
Image:
Pic: Reuters

Can Trump still run for president?

Yes. The US Constitution sets out three main requirements for being eligible to become president – and none of them reference being a convicted criminal.

Candidates must have been born in the US, be over 35, and have lived in the US for at least 14 years.

“Nothing prevents him from running for president and being elected, even if he is in jail at the time of the election,” Elizabeth Wydra, president of the progressive Constitutional Accountability Centre, told the LA Times.

That’s despite people with a felony conviction – a crime that can be punished by a year or more in prison – not being allowed to vote in some states.

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What happens next for Donald Trump?

But what if he were to be elected while in prison?

This is a little more complicated, firstly because it’s not clear if Trump will be sent to prison following the guilty verdict.

The convictions are class E felonies in New York, the lowest tier in the state, with each carrying a maximum sentence of four years.

In choosing the sentence, the judge will have to take into account Trump’s age – he’s now 77 – his lack of previous criminal convictions, and the fact that the case involves a non-violent crime.

Even if the judge, Justice Juan Merchan, opts for a custodial sentence, it’s likely Trump will appeal the guilty verdict – and expect to be on bail until that hearing.

Stormy Daniels in Manhattan in 2018. Pic: AP
Image:
Stormy Daniels in Manhattan in 2018. Pic: AP

That process could go all the way to the Court of Appeals, and, importantly for Trump, could drag on for months – possibly even past November’s election.

If Trump were to be elected while serving time, the situation becomes more complicated still, with even constitutional experts unsure.

“It’s just guessing,” Erwin Chemerinsky, a constitutional law expert at the University of California, Berkeley, told the New York Times earlier this year.

“We’re so far removed from anything that’s ever happened.”

Justice Juan Merchan scolds witness Robert Costello as he momentarily clears the courtroom during former U.S. President Donald Trump's criminal trial on charges that he falsified business records to conceal money paid to silence porn star Stormy Daniels in 2016, in Manhattan state court in New York City, U.S. May 20, 2024 in this courtroom sketch. REUTERS/Jane Rosenberg
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A court sketch of Justice Juan Merchan. Pic: Reuters

Could power transfer to the vice president?

In theory, experts say, there is nothing to stop Trump from taking office, even if he were to be behind bars.

There is a provision – the 25th Amendment of the US Constitution – which provides a process to transfer authority to the vice president if the president is “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office”.

However, that would require the approval of the vice president and members of Trump’s cabinet – who will have been hand-picked by him and will no doubt be loyalists.

It is more likely, experts say, that Trump would look to sue for his release or seek a pardon to allow him to govern.

Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump attends a rally ahead of the New Hampshire primary election in Manchester, New Hampshire, U.S. January 20, 2024. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque
Image:
Pic: Reuters


How will the guilty verdict impact the election?

Opinion polls carried out prior to Thursday’s verdict suggested it could pose a significant political danger for Trump.

In an April poll, one in four Republicans said they would not vote for Trump if he was found guilty in a criminal trial.

In the same survey, 60% of independents said they would not vote for Trump if he was convicted of a crime.

What do the experts say about its potential impact?

Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster, said he doubted a quarter of Republicans would actually shun Trump – but he said even a small number being turned off by a guilty verdict could help Joe Biden in a close election.

He said the nature of the New York case, which was brought by a Democratic prosecutor and relies on untested legal strategies, would help Trump and fellow Republicans frame a guilty verdict as a political hit job.

“If I were trying to design a court case that would be easy for Republicans to dismiss as a partisan witch hunt, I would design exactly the case that’s being brought in New York,” he said.

Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to the media, as his criminal trial over charges that he falsified business records to conceal money paid to silence porn star Stormy Daniels in 2016 continues, at Manhattan state court in New York City, U.S., April 22, 2024. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/Pool
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Donald Trump speaks to the media during his trial. Pic: Reuters

Republican consultant Tricia McLaughlin said she thought a guilty verdict would have a psychological impact on Trump because he hates losing.

It would also likely mean financial resources are diverted to legal bills because he would almost certainly appeal, she added.

Analyst Bill Galston said he didn’t expect a guilty verdict would have a significant impact on the presidential race.

“In the end, this amounts to lying about sex. I think the view probably of the majority of Americans is that everybody lies about sex,” said Mr Galston, who has worked on Democratic presidential campaigns.

Read more from Sky News:
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Have convicted criminals run for president before?

At least two candidates with criminal convictions have run for president in the past – although neither successfully.

Eugene Debs ran for president from prison in 1920, getting almost a million votes without ever hitting the campaign trail.

In 1992, Lyndon LaRouche also ran from behind bars while serving a 15-year sentence for mail fraud. He received about 26,000 votes.

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Donald Trump mocks ‘No Kings’ protests with AI video of himself dropping brown sludge on protesters from jet

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Donald Trump mocks 'No Kings' protests with AI video of himself dropping brown sludge on protesters from jet

Donald Trump has responded to so-called “No Kings” rallies with an AI video of himself in a fighter jet, pouring brown sludge over protesters.

Millions of people were expected to take part in the demonstrations this weekend – the second such gathering after an initial nationwide day of protest in June coinciding with the US president’s birthday.

The term “No Kings” reflects the belief by some that Mr Trump is behaving like a “king” and some in his administration are depicting him as a monarch.

A protester in costume as Donald Trump presents the president as a prisoner in chains in Seattle. Pic: AP
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A protester in costume as Donald Trump presents the president as a prisoner in chains in Seattle. Pic: AP

One of the rallies in New York. Pic: Reuters
Image:
One of the rallies in New York. Pic: Reuters

On Sunday, the president shared the AI video on his social media platform, Truth Social.

In the clip, an AI-generated version of Mr Trump is wearing a crown and sitting in a jet with “King Trump” written across it, to the soundtrack of Kenny Loggins’ Danger Zone, from the film Top Gun.

The jet then drops thick brown sludge on to AI-generated protesters.

Supporters say the marches are a patriotic defence of free speech, while critics are calling them anti-American.

A large inflatable effigy of Mr Trump in Chicago. Pic: Reuters
Image:
A large inflatable effigy of Mr Trump in Chicago. Pic: Reuters

This protest took place in Washington DC. Pic: AP
Image:
This protest took place in Washington DC. Pic: AP

Mr Trump’s Republican Party has dismissed the demonstrations as “Hate America” rallies.

Many of the events featured marching bands, huge banners and signs, as well as effigies of the president and demonstrators wearing inflatable costumes.

Thousands gathered along the waterfront in Portland, Oregon. Pic: AP
Image:
Thousands gathered along the waterfront in Portland, Oregon. Pic: AP

Protesters at the Wyoming State Capitol got creative with their signs. Pic: Wyoming Tribune Eagle/AP
Image:
Protesters at the Wyoming State Capitol got creative with their signs. Pic: Wyoming Tribune Eagle/AP

The protests follow Mr Trump’s return to the White House and come against the backdrop of a government shutdown which has closed federal programmes and services.

There has also been criticism of what some see as an aggressive executive, confronting Congress and the courts, in ways that protest organisers believe are a slide toward authoritarianism.

This event in San Francisco was among thousands taking place across the US. Pic: Reuters
Image:
This event in San Francisco was among thousands taking place across the US. Pic: Reuters

A 'No Kings' sign, outside City Hall in Los Angeles. Pic: Reuters
Image:
A ‘No Kings’ sign, outside City Hall in Los Angeles. Pic: Reuters

So far, the atmosphere at most of the protests appears to have been largely energetic and upbeat, with protesters calling for accountability and protections for civil liberties.

Organisers said events would be peaceful – a direct response to Republican and Trump administration claims that the protests could be unsafe.

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US airstrike destroyed ‘drug-carrying submarine’, says Trump – as survivors repatriated

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US airstrike destroyed 'drug-carrying submarine', says Trump - as survivors repatriated

Two survivors of a US airstrike, targeting what Donald Trump has described as a “drug-carrying submarine” in the Caribbean, have been repatriated to their home countries.

The US president posted footage of Thursday’s operation, part of a recent military campaign targeting boats transporting drugs to America.

“It was my great honor to destroy a very large DRUG-CARRYING SUBMARINE that was navigating towards the United States on a well known narcotrafficking transit route,” Mr Trump wrote on Truth Social.

“US intelligence confirmed this vessel was loaded up with mostly Fentanyl, and other illegal narcotics,” he added.

The US military staged a helicopter rescue for the survivors on Thursday after the strike on their semi-submersible
vessel, suspected of trafficking illegal narcotics. They were then transported to a US Navy warship.

Two other crew members on board were killed.

The semi-submersible vessel was struck by US forces on Thursday, leaving two dead and two survivors. Pic: @realDonaldTrump/Truth Social
Image:
The semi-submersible vessel was struck by US forces on Thursday, leaving two dead and two survivors. Pic: @realDonaldTrump/Truth Social

President Trump confirmed the survivors would be returned to their home countries of Colombia and Ecuador “for detention and prosecution”. Both countries subsequently confirmed they had been handed over.

More on Colombia

“America will not tolerate narcoterrorists trafficking illegal drugs, by land or by sea,” he added.

On Saturday, Colombian President Gustavo Petro posted on X: “We have received the Colombian detained on the narco submarine, we are happy he is alive and he will be processed according to the law.”

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Trump sends CIA into Venezuela and threatens land attack

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The Trump administration has said previous strikes in the Caribbean have killed 27 people, raising concerns among some about the legality of the military operations.

The strikes also come against the backdrop of a US military buildup in the Caribbean that includes guided missile destroyers, F-35 fighter jets, a nuclear submarine and around 6,500 troops as the US president escalates a standoff with the Venezuelan government.

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Venezuelan president: ‘We don’t want a war’

On Wednesday, Mr Trump disclosed he had authorised the CIA to conduct covert operations inside Venezuela, adding to speculation in Caracas that the US is attempting to topple Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

Mr Maduro has denied any connection to drug smuggling and claimed the US boat strikes are a pretext for regime change, and violations of sovereignty and international law.

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Protesters join nationwide ‘No Kings’ rallies against Donald Trump’s policies

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Protesters join nationwide 'No Kings' rallies against Donald Trump's policies

Thousands of so-called “No Kings” rallies are being held across the US to protest at what organisers are calling Donald Trump’s “crackdowns on First Amendment rights”.

Millions of people are expected to take part in the demonstrations – the second such gathering, after an initial nationwide day of protest in June, coinciding with the US president’s birthday.

The term “No Kings” reflects the belief by some that the US president is behaving like a “king” and some in his administration are depicting him as a monarch.

Supporters are framing the marches as a patriotic defence of free speech, while critics are calling them anti-American.

Here are some of the pictures emerging from the rallies.

People attend a 'No Kings' protest in New York. Pic: Reuters
Image:
People attend a ‘No Kings’ protest in New York. Pic: Reuters

A Donald Trump is presented as a prisoner in chains in Seattle. Pic: AP
Image:
A Donald Trump is presented as a prisoner in chains in Seattle. Pic: AP

Some protest marches, like this one in Washington DC, have the appearance of a colourful parade. Pic: AP
Image:
Some protest marches, like this one in Washington DC, have the appearance of a colourful parade. Pic: AP

Donald Trump’s Republican Party has dismissed the demonstrations as “Hate America” rallies, but in many places the events looked more like a street party.

There were marching bands, huge banners and signs, effigies of the president and demonstrators wearing inflatable costumes.

More on United States

A large inflatable effigy of Donald Trump in Chicago. Pic: Reuters
Image:
A large inflatable effigy of Donald Trump in Chicago. Pic: Reuters

Thousands gather along a waterfront in Portland, Oregon. Pic: AP
Image:
Thousands gather along a waterfront in Portland, Oregon. Pic: AP

Protesters at the Wyoming State Capitol are been creative with their signs. Pic: Wyoming Tribune Eagle/AP
Image:
Protesters at the Wyoming State Capitol are been creative with their signs. Pic: Wyoming Tribune Eagle/AP

The protests follow Donald Trump’s return to the White House and come against the backdrop of a government shutdown which has closed federal programmes and services.

There has also been criticism of what some see as an aggressive executive, confronting Congress and the courts, in ways that protest organisers believe are a slide toward authoritarianism.

This event in San Francisco is among thousands taking place across the US. Pic: Reuters
Image:
This event in San Francisco is among thousands taking place across the US. Pic: Reuters

A 'No Kings' sign, outside City Hall in Los Angeles, represents a protest against what is seen as increasingly authoritarian rule. Pic: Reuters
Image:
A ‘No Kings’ sign, outside City Hall in Los Angeles, represents a protest against what is seen as increasingly authoritarian rule. Pic: Reuters

So far, the atmosphere at most of the protests appears largely energetic and upbeat, with protesters calling for accountability and protections for civil liberties.

Organisers insist today’s events will be peaceful – a direct response to Republican and Trump administration claims that the protests could be unsafe.

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