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Donald Trump has become the first former US president to be criminally convicted – but what could the historic verdict mean for his ongoing election campaign?

A jury in New York deliberated for nine-and-a-half hours before unanimously agreeing Trump is guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records to commit election fraud.

The former president covered up a $130,000 (£102,000) payment to porn star Stormy Daniels as part of a “hush money” scheme to bury stories he thought might hurt his presidential campaign in 2016.

The case was the first of four criminal cases against Trump to go to trial, and marked the first time a former president has faced criminal charges.

Follow live: Trump says he’s ‘a very innocent man’ after verdict

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Trump: ‘This is a rigged trial’

It is unlikely the remaining three cases will go to trial before the November election.

With the hush money verdict in, Sky News takes a look at what could happen to Trump’s quest for reelection now he’s been convicted.

Donald Trump looks on during his criminal trial at New York State Supreme Court.
Pic: Reuters
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Pic: Reuters

Can Trump still run for president?

Yes. The US Constitution sets out three main requirements for being eligible to become president – and none of them reference being a convicted criminal.

Candidates must have been born in the US, be over 35, and have lived in the US for at least 14 years.

“Nothing prevents him from running for president and being elected, even if he is in jail at the time of the election,” Elizabeth Wydra, president of the progressive Constitutional Accountability Centre, told the LA Times.

That’s despite people with a felony conviction – a crime that can be punished by a year or more in prison – not being allowed to vote in some states.

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What happens next for Donald Trump?

But what if he were to be elected while in prison?

This is a little more complicated, firstly because it’s not clear if Trump will be sent to prison following the guilty verdict.

The convictions are class E felonies in New York, the lowest tier in the state, with each carrying a maximum sentence of four years.

In choosing the sentence, the judge will have to take into account Trump’s age – he’s now 77 – his lack of previous criminal convictions, and the fact that the case involves a non-violent crime.

Even if the judge, Justice Juan Merchan, opts for a custodial sentence, it’s likely Trump will appeal the guilty verdict – and expect to be on bail until that hearing.

Stormy Daniels in Manhattan in 2018. Pic: AP
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Stormy Daniels in Manhattan in 2018. Pic: AP

That process could go all the way to the Court of Appeals, and, importantly for Trump, could drag on for months – possibly even past November’s election.

If Trump were to be elected while serving time, the situation becomes more complicated still, with even constitutional experts unsure.

“It’s just guessing,” Erwin Chemerinsky, a constitutional law expert at the University of California, Berkeley, told the New York Times earlier this year.

“We’re so far removed from anything that’s ever happened.”

Justice Juan Merchan scolds witness Robert Costello as he momentarily clears the courtroom during former U.S. President Donald Trump's criminal trial on charges that he falsified business records to conceal money paid to silence porn star Stormy Daniels in 2016, in Manhattan state court in New York City, U.S. May 20, 2024 in this courtroom sketch. REUTERS/Jane Rosenberg
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A court sketch of Justice Juan Merchan. Pic: Reuters

Could power transfer to the vice president?

In theory, experts say, there is nothing to stop Trump from taking office, even if he were to be behind bars.

There is a provision – the 25th Amendment of the US Constitution – which provides a process to transfer authority to the vice president if the president is “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office”.

However, that would require the approval of the vice president and members of Trump’s cabinet – who will have been hand-picked by him and will no doubt be loyalists.

It is more likely, experts say, that Trump would look to sue for his release or seek a pardon to allow him to govern.

Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump attends a rally ahead of the New Hampshire primary election in Manchester, New Hampshire, U.S. January 20, 2024. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque
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Pic: Reuters


How will the guilty verdict impact the election?

Opinion polls carried out prior to Thursday’s verdict suggested it could pose a significant political danger for Trump.

In an April poll, one in four Republicans said they would not vote for Trump if he was found guilty in a criminal trial.

In the same survey, 60% of independents said they would not vote for Trump if he was convicted of a crime.

What do the experts say about its potential impact?

Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster, said he doubted a quarter of Republicans would actually shun Trump – but he said even a small number being turned off by a guilty verdict could help Joe Biden in a close election.

He said the nature of the New York case, which was brought by a Democratic prosecutor and relies on untested legal strategies, would help Trump and fellow Republicans frame a guilty verdict as a political hit job.

“If I were trying to design a court case that would be easy for Republicans to dismiss as a partisan witch hunt, I would design exactly the case that’s being brought in New York,” he said.

Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to the media, as his criminal trial over charges that he falsified business records to conceal money paid to silence porn star Stormy Daniels in 2016 continues, at Manhattan state court in New York City, U.S., April 22, 2024. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/Pool
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Donald Trump speaks to the media during his trial. Pic: Reuters

Republican consultant Tricia McLaughlin said she thought a guilty verdict would have a psychological impact on Trump because he hates losing.

It would also likely mean financial resources are diverted to legal bills because he would almost certainly appeal, she added.

Analyst Bill Galston said he didn’t expect a guilty verdict would have a significant impact on the presidential race.

“In the end, this amounts to lying about sex. I think the view probably of the majority of Americans is that everybody lies about sex,” said Mr Galston, who has worked on Democratic presidential campaigns.

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Have convicted criminals run for president before?

At least two candidates with criminal convictions have run for president in the past – although neither successfully.

Eugene Debs ran for president from prison in 1920, getting almost a million votes without ever hitting the campaign trail.

In 1992, Lyndon LaRouche also ran from behind bars while serving a 15-year sentence for mail fraud. He received about 26,000 votes.

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James Comey: Trump says ex-FBI director’s seashells post ‘meant assassination’

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James Comey: Trump says ex-FBI director's seashells post 'meant assassination'

A former FBI director has been interviewed by the US Secret Service over a social media post that Republicans say was a call for violence against President Donald Trump.

James Comey, who led the FBI from 2013 until he was fired in 2017 by Mr Trump during his first term in office, shared a photo of seashells appearing to form the numbers “86 47”.

James Comey, then the FBI Director, in July  2016. File pic: AP/J. Scott Applewhite
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James Comey later removed the Instagram post. File pic: AP

He captioned the Instagram post: “Cool shell formation on my beach walk.”

Some have interpreted the post as a threat, alleging that 86 47 means to violently remove Mr Trump from office, including by assassination.

What does ’86 47′ mean?

The number 86 can be used as a verb in the US. It commonly means “to throw somebody out of a bar for being drunk or disorderly”.

One recent meaning of the term is “to kill”, according to the Merriam-Webster Dictionary, which said it had not adopted this meaning of 86 “due to its relative recency and sparseness of use”.

The number has previously been used in a political context by Matt Gaetz, who was President Donald Trump’s pick for attorney general but withdrew from consideration following a series of sexual misconduct allegations.

Mr Gaetz wrote: “We’ve now 86’d…” and listed political opponents he had sparred with who ended up stepping down.

Meanwhile, 47 is supposedly representing Mr Trump, who is the 47th US president.

Mr Comey later removed the post, saying he thought the numbers “were a political message” and that he was not aware that the numeric arrangement could be associated with violence.

“I didn’t realise some folks associate those numbers with violence. It never occurred to me, but I oppose violence of any kind, so I took the post down,” Mr Comey said.

Mr Trump rejected the former FBI director’s explanation, telling Fox News: “He knew exactly what that meant. A child knows what that meant… that meant assassination.”

Donald Trump Jr accused Mr Comey of “casually calling for my dad to be murdered”.

US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem confirmed in a post on X that Mr Comey had been interviewed as part of “an ongoing investigation” but gave no indication of whether he might face further action.

The Secret Service is part of the Department of Homeland Security.

White House deputy chief of staff Taylor Budowich said Mr Comey had put out “what can clearly be interpreted as a hit on the sitting president of the United States”.

“This is deeply concerning to all of us and is being taken seriously,” Mr Budowich wrote on X.

Another White House official James Blair said the post was a “Clarion Call (…) to terrorists & hostile regimes to kill the President of the United States as he travels in the Middle East”.

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Mr Trump fired Mr Comey in May 2017 for botching an investigation into 2016 democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, the White House said at the time.

While Mr Comey was the director of the FBI, the agency opened an investigation into possible collusion between the Trump 2016 presidential campaign and Russia to help get Mr Trump elected.

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Trump officials considerTV show where immigrants compete for US citizenship

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Trump officials considerTV show where immigrants compete for US citizenship

The Trump administration is considering a TV show whereby immigrants compete for the prize of US citizenship, the Department for Homeland Security has confirmed.

It would see contestants compete in tasks across different states and include trivia and “civic” challenges, according to the producer who pitched the idea.

Participants could battle it out to build a rocket at NASA headquarters, Rob Worsoff suggested.

Confirming the administration was considering the idea, Department for Homeland Security spokeswoman Tricia McLaughlin said: “We need to revive patriotism and civic duty in this country, and we’re happy to review out-of-the-box pitches. This pitch has not received approval or rejection by staff.”

It comes amid hardline immigration measures implemented by President Donald Trump on his return to office in January.

Since being back in the White House he has ordered “mass deportations” and used the Alien Enemies Act to deport alleged gang members to countries in Central and South America.

Rob Worsoff (left) with Jack Osbourne in 2013. Pic: AP
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Rob Worsoff in 2013. Pic: AP

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Mr Worsoff, who is a Canadian-American citizen, said his pitch was inspired by his own naturalisation process.

He cautioned that those who “lost” the gameshow would not be punished or deported but said the details of how it would work would be down to TV networks and federal officials.

The producer said the US was in need of “a national conversation about what it means to be American”.

He said the show, if accepted by a network, would “get to know” contestants and “their stories and their journeys”, while “celebrating them as humans”.

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Behind the scenes of Trump trip

Meanwhile, the Department for Homeland Security has asked for 20,000 National Guard troops from various states to assist with its efforts rounding up illegal immigrants.

Currently, the federal Enforcement and Removals Operations agency only has around 7,700 staff – but the boost would help fulfil Mr Trump’s inauguration promises.

The Trump administration has already recruited 10,000 troops under state and federal orders to bolster the US-Mexico border.

Some have now been given the power to detain migrants within a newly militarised strip of land just adjacent to it.

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‘Mass casualty event’ declared as tornadoes hit Kentucky and Missouri

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'Mass casualty event' declared as tornadoes hit Kentucky and Missouri

At least 21 people have died after tornadoes hit two US states, according to local officials.

Fourteen people have died in Kentucky, its governor Andy Beshear said, while seven have died in Missouri.

The weather system also saw tornadoes tear through Wisconsin, leaving hundreds of thousands of people without power.

In the city of St Louis, five people were confirmed dead and more than 5,000 homes were damaged, mayor Cara Spencer said on Saturday.

The storm system originally hit Scott County, 130 miles south of St Louis, on Friday, killing two people, Sheriff Derick Wheetley said.

The devastation that ensued saw roofs torn off buildings, blown-out windows, toppled trees, and power lines.

A house completely collapsed in St Louis, Missouri on Friday. Pic: Reuters
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A house completely collapsed in St Louis, Missouri on Friday. Pic: Reuters

Map showing location of tornadoes which have swept across the Midwest leaving at least 21 dead, inc Missouri and Kentucky
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A map of the most impacted areas

St Louis mayor Cara Spencer said: “Our city is grieving tonight. The loss of life and the destruction is truly, truly horrendous.”

Dozens of people are believed to have been injured and in hospital, but the exact numbers in Missouri have not been confirmed.

Kentucky officials described the situation there as a “mass casualty event” after the weather system tore across Laurel County late on Friday.

The side of a house is seen ripped off by storms in St Louis, Missouri. Pic: Reuters
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The side of a house ripped off by storms in St Louis, Missouri. Pic: Reuters

Several people were taken to hospital, buildings were damaged, and a car flipped over on a busy highway, local officials reported.

Laurel County Sheriff’s Office spokesman Gilbert Acciardo said rescuers had “been on the ground all night looking for possible survivors”.

Kentucky governor Mr Beshear wrote on X that the number of dead in the state was likely to increase from 14 “as we receive more information”.

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People sit outside their destroyed homes in St Louis, Missouri late on Friday. Pic: Reuters
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People sit outside their destroyed homes in St Louis, Missouri late on Friday. Pic: Reuters

Further devastation expected in other states

The National Weather Service warned of further devastation hitting Texas, Kansas, and Oklahoma on Saturday.

“Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts, and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains,” it said on its website.

The Midwest tornadoes were also expected to hit Illinois, eventually stretching to New Jersey and the Atlantic coast.

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