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Donald Trump has become the first former US president to be criminally convicted – but what could the historic verdict mean for his ongoing election campaign?

A jury in New York deliberated for nine-and-a-half hours before unanimously agreeing Trump is guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records to commit election fraud.

The former president covered up a $130,000 (£102,000) payment to porn star Stormy Daniels as part of a “hush money” scheme to bury stories he thought might hurt his presidential campaign in 2016.

The case was the first of four criminal cases against Trump to go to trial, and marked the first time a former president has faced criminal charges.

Follow live: Trump says he’s ‘a very innocent man’ after verdict

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Trump: ‘This is a rigged trial’

It is unlikely the remaining three cases will go to trial before the November election.

With the hush money verdict in, Sky News takes a look at what could happen to Trump’s quest for reelection now he’s been convicted.

Donald Trump looks on during his criminal trial at New York State Supreme Court.
Pic: Reuters
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Pic: Reuters

Can Trump still run for president?

Yes. The US Constitution sets out three main requirements for being eligible to become president – and none of them reference being a convicted criminal.

Candidates must have been born in the US, be over 35, and have lived in the US for at least 14 years.

“Nothing prevents him from running for president and being elected, even if he is in jail at the time of the election,” Elizabeth Wydra, president of the progressive Constitutional Accountability Centre, told the LA Times.

That’s despite people with a felony conviction – a crime that can be punished by a year or more in prison – not being allowed to vote in some states.

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What happens next for Donald Trump?

But what if he were to be elected while in prison?

This is a little more complicated, firstly because it’s not clear if Trump will be sent to prison following the guilty verdict.

The convictions are class E felonies in New York, the lowest tier in the state, with each carrying a maximum sentence of four years.

In choosing the sentence, the judge will have to take into account Trump’s age – he’s now 77 – his lack of previous criminal convictions, and the fact that the case involves a non-violent crime.

Even if the judge, Justice Juan Merchan, opts for a custodial sentence, it’s likely Trump will appeal the guilty verdict – and expect to be on bail until that hearing.

Stormy Daniels in Manhattan in 2018. Pic: AP
Image:
Stormy Daniels in Manhattan in 2018. Pic: AP

That process could go all the way to the Court of Appeals, and, importantly for Trump, could drag on for months – possibly even past November’s election.

If Trump were to be elected while serving time, the situation becomes more complicated still, with even constitutional experts unsure.

“It’s just guessing,” Erwin Chemerinsky, a constitutional law expert at the University of California, Berkeley, told the New York Times earlier this year.

“We’re so far removed from anything that’s ever happened.”

Justice Juan Merchan scolds witness Robert Costello as he momentarily clears the courtroom during former U.S. President Donald Trump's criminal trial on charges that he falsified business records to conceal money paid to silence porn star Stormy Daniels in 2016, in Manhattan state court in New York City, U.S. May 20, 2024 in this courtroom sketch. REUTERS/Jane Rosenberg
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A court sketch of Justice Juan Merchan. Pic: Reuters

Could power transfer to the vice president?

In theory, experts say, there is nothing to stop Trump from taking office, even if he were to be behind bars.

There is a provision – the 25th Amendment of the US Constitution – which provides a process to transfer authority to the vice president if the president is “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office”.

However, that would require the approval of the vice president and members of Trump’s cabinet – who will have been hand-picked by him and will no doubt be loyalists.

It is more likely, experts say, that Trump would look to sue for his release or seek a pardon to allow him to govern.

Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump attends a rally ahead of the New Hampshire primary election in Manchester, New Hampshire, U.S. January 20, 2024. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque
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Pic: Reuters


How will the guilty verdict impact the election?

Opinion polls carried out prior to Thursday’s verdict suggested it could pose a significant political danger for Trump.

In an April poll, one in four Republicans said they would not vote for Trump if he was found guilty in a criminal trial.

In the same survey, 60% of independents said they would not vote for Trump if he was convicted of a crime.

What do the experts say about its potential impact?

Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster, said he doubted a quarter of Republicans would actually shun Trump – but he said even a small number being turned off by a guilty verdict could help Joe Biden in a close election.

He said the nature of the New York case, which was brought by a Democratic prosecutor and relies on untested legal strategies, would help Trump and fellow Republicans frame a guilty verdict as a political hit job.

“If I were trying to design a court case that would be easy for Republicans to dismiss as a partisan witch hunt, I would design exactly the case that’s being brought in New York,” he said.

Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to the media, as his criminal trial over charges that he falsified business records to conceal money paid to silence porn star Stormy Daniels in 2016 continues, at Manhattan state court in New York City, U.S., April 22, 2024. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/Pool
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Donald Trump speaks to the media during his trial. Pic: Reuters

Republican consultant Tricia McLaughlin said she thought a guilty verdict would have a psychological impact on Trump because he hates losing.

It would also likely mean financial resources are diverted to legal bills because he would almost certainly appeal, she added.

Analyst Bill Galston said he didn’t expect a guilty verdict would have a significant impact on the presidential race.

“In the end, this amounts to lying about sex. I think the view probably of the majority of Americans is that everybody lies about sex,” said Mr Galston, who has worked on Democratic presidential campaigns.

Read more from Sky News:
De Niro turns up outside Trump trial
Donald Trump booed at Libertarian Party convention

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Have convicted criminals run for president before?

At least two candidates with criminal convictions have run for president in the past – although neither successfully.

Eugene Debs ran for president from prison in 1920, getting almost a million votes without ever hitting the campaign trail.

In 1992, Lyndon LaRouche also ran from behind bars while serving a 15-year sentence for mail fraud. He received about 26,000 votes.

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Elon Musk says he’s created his own political party – the ‘America Party’

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Elon Musk says he's created his own political party - the 'America Party'

Elon Musk says he has created a new political party – the America Party –
after asking his followers if he should do so in an online poll.

It follows his public falling out with Republican President Donald Trump.

On Friday, the billionaire had asked his followers on X whether a new US political party should be created.

On Saturday evening he wrote on the same platform: “By a factor of 2 to 1, you want a new political party and you shall have it!

“When it comes to bankrupting our country with waste & graft, we live in a one-party system, not a democracy.

“Today, the America Party is formed to give you back your freedom.”

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Trump threatens to ‘put DOGE’ on Musk

The world’s richest man made the announcement just one day after President Trump signed a tax-cut and spending bill into law on Friday, which Musk had fiercely opposed.

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Musk had previously said we would form and fund a new political party to unseat lawmakers who supported the bill.

From bromance to bust-up

The Tesla boss backed Trump’s election campaign with more than a quarter of a billion dollars, later rewarded with a high profile role running the newly created department of government efficiency (DOGE).

But observers of the two men, both with huge wealth and reputations, wondered how long the bromance would last.

Elon Musk receives a golden key from U.S. President Donald Trump in the Oval Office.
Pic: Reuters
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Donald Trump gave Musk a warm send-off in the Oval Office in May. Pic: Reuters

In May Musk left the role, still on good terms with Trump but criticising key parts of his legislative agenda.

After that, the attacks ramped up, with Musk slamming the sweeping tax and spending bill as a “disgusting abomination” and Trump hitting back in a barbed tit-for-tat.

Trump earlier this week threatened to cut off the billion-dollar federal subsidies that flow to Musk’s companies, and said he would even consider deporting him.

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Is this the most powerful Trump’s been?

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Is this the most powerful Trump's been?

👉 Follow Trump100 on your podcast app 👈

Donald Trump’s ‘big, beautiful bill’ has passed and he’s due to sign it into law on Independence Day. Mark Stone and David Blevins discuss how the bill will supercharge his presidency, despite its critics.

They also chat Gaza and Ukraine, as Donald Trump meets with freed Israeli-American hostage Edan Alexander and talks to Vladimir Putin.

If you’ve got a question you’d like the Trump100 team to answer, you can email it to trump100@sky.uk.

You can also watch all episodes on our YouTube channel.

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At least 13 people confirmed dead and more than 20 missing from girls camp in Texas flooding

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At least 13 people confirmed dead and more than 20 missing from girls camp in Texas flooding

13 people have been killed in the US state of Texas after heavy rain caused flash flooding, according to local media reports.

Officials have also said more than 20 are missing from a girls’ camp in Texas.

As much as 10 inches (25 centimetres) of heavy rain fell in just a few hours overnight in central Kerr County, causing flash flooding of the Guadalupe River.

Judge Rob Kelly, the chief elected official in the county, confirmed fatalities from the flooding and dozens of water rescues so far.

A flood watch issued on Thursday afternoon estimated isolated amounts up to seven inches (17 centimetres) of rising water.

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