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Donald Trump has become the first former US president to be criminally convicted – but what could the historic verdict mean for his ongoing election campaign?

A jury in New York deliberated for nine-and-a-half hours before unanimously agreeing Trump is guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records to commit election fraud.

The former president covered up a $130,000 (£102,000) payment to porn star Stormy Daniels as part of a “hush money” scheme to bury stories he thought might hurt his presidential campaign in 2016.

With the hush money verdict in, Sky News takes a look at what could happen to Trump’s quest for reelection now he’s been convicted.

Donald Trump looks on during his criminal trial at New York State Supreme Court.
Pic: Reuters
Image:
Pic: Reuters

Can Trump still run for president?

Yes. The US Constitution sets out three main requirements for being eligible to become president – and none of them reference being a convicted criminal.

Candidates must have been born in the US, be over 35, and have lived in the US for at least 14 years.

“Nothing prevents him from running for president and being elected, even if he is in jail at the time of the election,” Elizabeth Wydra, president of the progressive Constitutional Accountability Centre, told the LA Times.

That’s despite people with a felony conviction – a crime that can be punished by a year or more in prison – not being allowed to vote in some states.

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What happens next for Donald Trump?

But what if he were to be elected while in prison?

This is a little more complicated, firstly because it’s not clear if Trump will be sent to prison following the guilty verdict.

The convictions are class E felonies in New York, the lowest tier in the state, with each carrying a maximum sentence of four years.

In choosing the sentence, the judge will have to take into account Trump’s age – he’s now 77 – his lack of previous criminal convictions, and the fact that the case involves a non-violent crime.

Even if the judge, Justice Juan Merchan, opts for a custodial sentence, it’s likely Trump will appeal the guilty verdict – and expect to be on bail until that hearing.

Stormy Daniels in Manhattan in 2018. Pic: AP
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Stormy Daniels in Manhattan in 2018. Pic: AP

That process could go all the way to the Court of Appeals, and, importantly for Trump, could drag on for months – possibly even past November’s election.

If Trump were to be elected while serving time, the situation becomes more complicated still, with even constitutional experts unsure.

“It’s just guessing,” Erwin Chemerinsky, a constitutional law expert at the University of California, Berkeley, told the New York Times earlier this year.

“We’re so far removed from anything that’s ever happened.”

Justice Juan Merchan scolds witness Robert Costello as he momentarily clears the courtroom during former U.S. President Donald Trump's criminal trial on charges that he falsified business records to conceal money paid to silence porn star Stormy Daniels in 2016, in Manhattan state court in New York City, U.S. May 20, 2024 in this courtroom sketch. REUTERS/Jane Rosenberg
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A court sketch of Justice Juan Merchan. Pic: Reuters

Could power transfer to the vice president?

In theory, experts say, there is nothing to stop Trump from taking office, even if he were to be behind bars.

There is a provision – the 25th Amendment of the US Constitution – which provides a process to transfer authority to the vice president if the president is “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office”.

However, that would require the approval of the vice president and members of Trump’s cabinet – who will have been hand-picked by him and will no doubt be loyalists.

It is more likely, experts say, that Trump would look to sue for his release or seek a pardon to allow him to govern.

Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump attends a rally ahead of the New Hampshire primary election in Manchester, New Hampshire, U.S. January 20, 2024. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque
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Pic: Reuters


How will the guilty verdict impact the election?

Opinion polls carried out prior to Thursday’s verdict suggested it could pose a significant political danger for Trump.

In an April poll, one in four Republicans said they would not vote for Trump if he was found guilty in a criminal trial.

In the same survey, 60% of independents said they would not vote for Trump if he was convicted of a crime.

What do the experts say about its potential impact?

Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster, said he doubted a quarter of Republicans would actually shun Trump – but he said even a small number being turned off by a guilty verdict could help Joe Biden in a close election.

He said the nature of the New York case, which was brought by a Democratic prosecutor and relies on untested legal strategies, would help Trump and fellow Republicans frame a guilty verdict as a political hit job.

“If I were trying to design a court case that would be easy for Republicans to dismiss as a partisan witch hunt, I would design exactly the case that’s being brought in New York,” he said.

Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to the media, as his criminal trial over charges that he falsified business records to conceal money paid to silence porn star Stormy Daniels in 2016 continues, at Manhattan state court in New York City, U.S., April 22, 2024. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/Pool
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Donald Trump speaks to the media during his trial. Pic: Reuters

Republican consultant Tricia McLaughlin said she thought a guilty verdict would have a psychological impact on Trump because he hates losing.

It would also likely mean financial resources are diverted to legal bills because he would almost certainly appeal, she added.

Analyst Bill Galston said he didn’t expect a guilty verdict would have a significant impact on the presidential race.

“In the end, this amounts to lying about sex. I think the view probably of the majority of Americans is that everybody lies about sex,” said Mr Galston, who has worked on Democratic presidential campaigns.

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Have convicted criminals run for president before?

At least two candidates with criminal convictions have run for president in the past – although neither successfully.

Eugene Debs ran for president from prison in 1920, getting almost a million votes without ever hitting the campaign trail.

In 1992, Lyndon LaRouche also ran from behind bars while serving a 15-year sentence for mail fraud. He received about 26,000 votes.

More trials ahead

This case was the first of four criminal cases against Trump to go to trial, and marked the first time a former president has faced criminal charges.

It is unlikely the remaining three cases will go to trial before the November election.

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Suspect in shooting of Minnesota politicians captured after two-day manhunt

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Suspect in shooting of Minnesota politicians captured after two-day manhunt

A man has been taken into custody two days after a US politician and her husband were shot dead in Minnesota, law enforcement officials have said.

Authorities had urged the public not to approach Vance Boelter, 57, who they warned could be armed, and who was reportedly posing as a police officer.

A massive manhunt was launched on Saturday after Melissa Hortman and Mark Hortman were shot dead at their home in Minneapolis in what Minnesota governor Tim Walz called a “politically motivated assassination”.

Police said the same gunman that killed the Hortmans had earlier shot and wounded Democrat senator John Hoffman and his wife, Yvette, at their home nine miles away.

Graphic of Minnesota State Representative Melissa Hortman (L) and Senator John Hoffman. Pic: Facebook / Minnesota Legislature
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Representative Melissa Hortman and Senator John Hoffman. Pic: Facebook/Minnesota Legislature

Boelter was arrested on Sunday evening in a rural area in Sibley County, southwest of Minneapolis.

He faces two counts of second-degree murder and two counts of attempted second-degree murder in the deaths of the Hortmans and the wounding of Hoffman and his wife.

The FBI released this image of Vance Boelter posing as a police officer. Pic: FBI.
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The FBI released this image of Vance Boelter posing as a police officer. Pic: FBI.

Police said they responded to gunfire reports at the Hoffmans’ Champlin home shortly after 2am on Saturday and found them with multiple gunshot wounds.

They then checked on the Hortmans’ home, in the nearby Brooklyn Park suburb, and saw what appeared to be a police car and a man dressed as an officer leaving the front door.

“The individual immediately fired upon the officers, who exchanged gunfire, and the suspect retreated back into the home” and escaped on foot, said Brooklyn Park police chief Mark Bruley.

Authorities believe Boelter wore a mask as he posed as a police officer, and also used a vehicle resembling a squad car.

Several AK-style firearms and a list of about 70 names, which included politicians and abortion rights activists, were allegedly found inside the vehicle.

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Governor calls it ‘targeted political violence’

‘We are both incredibly lucky to be alive’

Senator Hoffman was shot nine times and is having multiple surgeries, according to a text message shared on Instagram by fellow senator Amy Klobuchar on Sunday.

The text from Yvette Hoffman added: “I took 8 and we are both incredibly lucky to be alive.”

She said her husband “is closer every hour to being out of the woods”.

Read more:
Neighbours of murdered US politician stunned

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Neighbours of killed US politician stunned

Records show Boelter – a father of five – is a former political appointee who served on the same state workforce development board as Mr Hoffman.

However, it’s unclear to what extent they knew each other, if at all.

Mr Hoffman, 60, was first elected in 2012 and runs a consulting firm called Hoffman Strategic Advisors.

Melissa Hortman, a 55-year-old mother of two, was first elected in 2004 and was the top house Democratic leader in the state legislature.

She also served as speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives.

Melissa Hortman. Pic: Instagram.
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The motive behind Melissa Hortman’s killing remains unclear. Pic: Instagram.

Mrs Hortman used her position to champion protections around abortion rights, including laws to cement Minnesota’s status as a safe refuge for people from restrictive states, who travel there for an abortion.

Her work also sought to introduce protections for services that provide abortions.

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Minnesota manhunt continues for gunman who ‘posed as cop’ to kill Melissa Hortman and her husband

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Minnesota manhunt continues for gunman who 'posed as cop' to kill Melissa Hortman and her husband

A manhunt is continuing after the gunning down of a Democrat politician and her husband – with police saying they’re acting on the assumption he is still alive and dangerous.

Melissa Hortman and Mark Hortman were shot dead at home in a Minneapolis suburb on Saturday in what governor Tim Walz called a “politically motivated assassination”.

Democrat senator John Hoffman and his wife were also shot multiple times at their home nine miles away, but survived.

A search is under way for Vance Boelter, 57, who authorities believe wore a mask as he posed as a police officer, and also used a vehicle resembling a squad car.

Several AK-style firearms and a list of about 70 names, which included politicians and abortion rights activists, were found inside.

Graphic of Minnesota State Representative Melissa Hortman (L) and Senator John Hoffman. Pic: Facebook / Minnesota Legislature
Image:
Melissa Hortman and Senator John Hoffman. Pic: Facebook / Minnesota Legislature

Boelter was last caught on camera wearing a cowboy hat – a similar hat was found near another vehicle belonging to him on Sunday.

Authorities said at their latest news conference they assume he is still alive.

Hundreds of police officers are searching for Boelter, who escaped from the Hortmans’ house on foot after an exchange of gunfire.

Vance Boelter images

Senator Hoffman was shot nine times and is having multiple surgeries, according to a text message shared on Instagram by fellow senator Amy Klobuchar on Sunday.

The text from Mr Hoffman’s wife, Yvette, added: “I took 8 and we are both incredibly lucky to be alive.”

She said her husband “is closer every hour to being out of the woods”.

“We believe [Boelter’s] somewhere in the vicinity and that they are going to find him,” Senator Klobuchar told NBC’s Meet the Press.

“Everyone’s on edge here,” she added, “because we know that this man will kill at a second.”

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Neighbours of killed US politician stunned

Police said they responded to gunfire reports at the Hoffmans’ Champlin home shortly after 2am on Saturday and found them with multiple gunshot wounds.

They then checked on the Hortmans’ home, in the nearby Brooklyn Park suburb, and saw what appeared to be a police car and a man dressed as an officer leaving the front door.

“The individual immediately fired upon the officers, who exchanged gunfire, and the suspect retreated back into the home” and escaped on foot, said Brooklyn Park police chief Mark Bruley.

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Neighbours of murdered US politician stunned

Another vehicle belonging to Boelter was searched on Sunday in Minnesota’s Faxon Township. A cowboy hat similar to the one seen in the police appeal was found nearby.

It’s been revealed that the suspect texted friends around 6am on Saturday to say he had “made some choices” and was “going to be gone for a while”.

According to AP, which has seen the messages, he reportedly said: “May be dead shortly, so I just want to let you know I love you guys both and I wish it hadn’t gone this way… I’m sorry for all the trouble this has caused.”

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Governor calls it ‘targeted political violence’

Records show Boelter – a father of five – is a former political appointee who served on the same state workforce development board as Mr Hoffman.

However, it’s unclear to what extent they knew each other, if at all.

Mr Hoffman, 60, was first elected in 2012 and runs a consulting firm called Hoffman Strategic Advisors.

Melissa Hortman. Pic: Instagram.
Image:
The motive behind Melissa Hortman’s killing remains unclear. Pic: Instagram

Melissa Hortman, a 55-year-old mother of two, was first elected in 2004 and was the top house Democratic leader in the state legislature.

She also served as speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives.

Mrs Hortman used her position to champion protections around abortion rights, including laws to cement Minnesota’s status as a safe refuge for people from restrictive states, who travel there for an abortion.

Her work also sought to introduce protections for services that provide abortions.

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‘It feels like a bad dream’: Minnesota mourns victims of ‘politically motivated assassination’

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'It feels like a bad dream': Minnesota mourns victims of 'politically motivated assassination'

“Holy, holy, holy” they sang at the Church of St Timothy in Blaine, Minnesota.

But the congregation is struggling to comprehend an act of evil – the brutal murder of one of their own.

Church memorial
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The church congregation remembered Melissa and Mark Hortman

Melissa Hortman grew up here. The former state speaker and her husband Mark were shot dead in their home on Saturday morning.

Her friend and party colleague, Erin Koegal, was among those attending mass.

Erin
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Erin Koegal says her friend’s death feels like a ‘bad dream’

“It still feels like a bad dream. I woke up this morning and was like, okay, so that was real,” she said.

“It’s hit me in waves, the grief, and the anger, and the sadness. She was a leader, a true definition of a leader.

“I’ve never known our party without Melissa as the leader and so I can’t, I don’t even know how we’re going to go forward as a caucus without her.”

The bullet holes on Melissa Hortman's front door.
Image:
The bullet holes on Melissa Hortman’s front door.

State senator John Hoffman and his wife Yvette had already been shot and wounded.

Police sent to check on his colleague, Melissa Hortman, didn’t get there in time.

Vance Boelter
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Police are extensively searching for 57-year-old Vance Boelter

They named the suspect as Vance Boelter, a 57-year-old former Christian missionary.

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz called it a “politically motivated murder”.

Read more here:
Neighbours of murdered US politician stunned
Manhunt after Minnesota politician and husband shot dead

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Neighbours of killed US politician stunned

Friends of Ms Hortman have told Sky News that her two children feared for their mother’s life after reading divisive rhetoric directed at her online.

Matt Norris, another political colleague of Ms Hortman, was also at church, reflecting on the rise of political violence in America.

Matt
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Matt Norris

“We’ve going to have to do some serious introspection as a state, as a country, and figure out how do we get beyond this,” he said.

“How have we been laying the seeds that have led to horrific acts of violence against public servants like this?

“And it’s going to be incumbent upon us as leaders to set a different tone, to set a different direction for our state and our country so that horrific tragedies like this never occur again.”

Melissa Hortman
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Tributes left for Melissa Hortman and her husband outside the Minnesota State Capitol

But there’s no sign of division at the State Capitol Building, where flags fly at half-mast and flowers are being left in tribute.

This is a community united in grief and in its hope for an end to gun violence in America.

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