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The establishment of Great British Energy is among the last remnants of the ‘green prosperity plan’ devised and championed by Ed Miliband, the shadow secretary of state for energy security and net zero, three years ago.

The former Labour leader’s vision was to spend £28bn per year in the first five years of an incoming Labour government on decarbonising the UK economy.

However, as the current leader Sir Keir Starmer recognised, the issue was swiftly weaponised by the Conservatives because all the money – as Mr Miliband himself had made clear – would have been borrowed.

More importantly, the plan did not survive contact with Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, who has made fiscal responsibility her priority.

The £28bn-a-year spending pledge was watered down in February this year to one of £23.7bn over the life of the next parliament.

A sizeable chunk of that will be on Great British Energy, described by Mr Miliband as “a new publicly owned clean power company”, which Labour has said will be initially capitalised at £8.3bn.

And, instead of the money being borrowed, Labour is now saying “it will be funded by asking the big oil and gas companies to pay their fair share through a proper windfall tax”.

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What’s a windfall tax and what’s it got to do with green energy?

Before going further, it’s worth explaining what the current windfall tax is.

The existing ‘temporary energy profits levy‘ was launched by Rishi Sunak, as chancellor, in May 2022 and imposed an extra 25% tax on the profits earned by companies from the production of oil and gas in the UK and on the UK Continental Shelf in the North Sea.

Due to expire at the end of 2025, it raised £2.6bn during its first year.

Jeremy Hunt, as chancellor, raised the levy to 35% from the beginning of last year and extended its life to the end of March 2028. That ‘sunset clause’ was extended to the end of March 2029 in Mr Hunt’s spring budget earlier this year.

It effectively means that the total tax burden on North Sea oil and gas producers is now 75%.

Labour made clear in February this year that this would rise to 78%. It also plans to remove some of the investment incentives Mr Sunak put in place when it announced the current windfall tax.

That will undoubtedly have consequences.

Offshore Energies UK, the industry body, has said that, in its first year, the existing energy profits levy led to more than 90% of North Sea oil producers cutting spending. It has warned that Labour’s plans could cost 42,000 jobs in the North Sea and some £26bn in economic value.

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So the increase in the windfall levy will have consequences for the overall tax take.

It is therefore important for Labour to make clear what changes in investment and hiring it is factoring in from companies operating in the North Sea as a result of higher taxation.

The big operators are already deserting the region. It was reported this week that Shell and Exxon Mobil are close to selling their jointly-controlled UK North Sea gas fields – marking the US giant’s final exit from the North Sea after 60 years.

And Harbour Energy, the biggest independent operator in the North Sea, has slashed investment in the region, along with hundreds of jobs, since the energy profits levy was introduced. It too is seeking to diversify away from the North Sea – having seen the energy profits levy wipe out its entire annual profits during the first year of the impost.

What will Great British Energy even own?

The second big question is what assets will be owned by Great British Energy.

Labour said overnight: “Great British Energy’s early investments will include wind and solar projects in communities up and down the country as well as making Scotland a world-leader in cutting edge technologies such as floating offshore wind, hydrogen, and CCS (carbon capture and storage).”

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What is unclear, though, is whether this will involve buying existing assets from private sector operators, building new assets from scratch or co-investing in new projects.

It is worth asking the question because only the latter of these two options will actually add to the UK’s energy generation and storage capacity.

And, if it is to be the second or third options, the question is what return on capital employed Great British Energy will be seeking to achieve.

A risk that money could be wasted

All commercial operators seek to achieve a return on capital which exceeds their cost of capital.

Now, as a sovereign debt issuer with a good credit rating, the UK government enjoys a lower cost of capital than most corporates. But there will still be a nagging concern – given the traditionally poor stewardship of state-owned enterprises in the UK – that, without the discipline imposed by having shareholders, some of the money will be wasted.

Investments of this kind are risky and volatile.

An example of this came last week when SSE, one of the UK’s biggest and best-run renewable energy generating companies, admitted that Dogger Bank A, its giant wind project off the Yorkshire coast, will not be fully operational until next year rather than this year.

Is it needed when billions are being spent on green investments?

A third question is why, precisely, Great British Energy is needed at all.

The UK is already decarbonising more rapidly than any other major economy and is also investing heavily.

The Department for Energy and Net Zero recently estimated that there will be some £100bn worth of private investment put towards the UK’s energy transition by 2030.

National Grid announced only last week that it plans to invest £31bn in the UK on the transition between now and the end of the decade.

SSE is investing £18bn in renewable capacity in the five years to 2026-27. Scottish Power, another of the big renewable energy companies, recently announced plans to invest £12bn between now and 2028.

So it is not entirely obvious why a comparatively small state-owned company is even necessary.

Energy security and cost

Labour’s justification is partly based on energy security – Sir Keir has in the past queried why a Swedish state-owned power company, Vattenfall, should be the biggest investor in onshore wind in Wales – and partly on prices.

It said overnight: “Great British Energy is part of our mission to make Britain a clean energy superpower by 2030 – helping families save £300 per year off their energy bills.”

Again, though, this raises further questions.

Mark McAllister, the chairman of energy regulator Ofgem, told the Financial Times this week that energy bills were unlikely to fall substantially over the decade partly due to the costs of building out the electricity network to support the transition to renewables.

He told the FT: said: “As we build in more and more renewables, we’re also building in the price, amortised over many years, of the networks as well.

“If we look at the forecasts for wholesale prices and then build on top of that the costs of the network going forward, I think we see something in our view that is relatively flat in the medium term.”

And that begs the biggest question of all, not just for Labour, but for all the parties: why is it being left to a regulator, rather than the politicians, to spell out the costs to households of the energy transition?

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US and China extend tariffs deadline again

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US and China extend tariffs deadline again

The world’s two largest economies, the US and China, have again extended the deadline for tariffs to come into effect.

A last-minute executive order from US President Donald Trump will prevent taxes on Chinese imports to the US from rising to 30%. Beijing also announced the extension of the tariff pause at the same time, according to the Ministry of Commerce.

Those tariffs on goods entering the US from China were due to take effect on Tuesday.

The extension allows for further negotiations with Chinese Premier Xi Jinping and also prevents tariffs from rising to 145%, a level threatened after tit for tat increases in the wake of Trump’s so-called liberation day announcement on 2 April.

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It’s the second 90-day truce between the sides.

The countries reached an initial framework for cooperation in May, with the US reducing its 145% tariff on Chinese goods to 30%, while China’s 125% retaliatory tariffs went down to 10% on US items.

A tariff of 20% had been implemented on China when Mr Trump took office, over what his administration said was a failure to stop illegal drugs entering the US.

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Sector-specific tariffs, such as the 25% tax on cars, aluminium and steel, remain in place.

Chinese stock markets were mixed in response to the news, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng down 0.08%

The Shanghai Composite stock index rose 0.46%, and the Shenzhen Component gained 0.35%.

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Wage rises slow as retail and hospitality jobs continue to fall

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Wage rises slow as retail and hospitality jobs continue to fall

The rate of wage rises in the UK continued to slow as the number of job vacancies and people in work fell, according to new figures.

Average weekly earnings slowed to 4.6% down from 5%, while pay excluding bonuses continued to grow 5%, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) for the three months to June.

It means the gap between inflation – the rate of price rises – and wage increases is narrowing, and the labour market is slowing. Inflation stood at 3.6% in June.

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The number of employees on payroll has fallen in ten of the last 12 months, with the falls concentrated in hospitality and retail, the ONS said. It came as employers faced higher wage bills from increased minimum wages and upped national insurance contributions.

As a result, it’s harder to get a job now than a year ago.

“Job vacancies, likewise, have continued to fall, also driven by fewer opportunities in these industries,” the ONS director of economic statistics, Liz McKeown, said.

The number of job vacancies fell for the 37th consecutive period and in 16 of the 18 industry sectors. Feedback from employers suggested firms may not be recruiting new workers or replacing those who left.

Unemployment remained at 4.7% in June, the same as in May.

The ONS, however, continued to advise caution in interpreting changes in the monthly unemployment rate due to concerns over the figures’ reliability.

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The exact number of unemployed people is unknown, partly because people do not respond to surveys and answer the phone when the ONS calls.

The worst is yet to come

Wage rises are expected to fall further, and redundancies are anticipated to rise.

“Wage growth is likely to weaken over the course of the year as softening economic conditions, rising redundancies and elevated staffing costs increasingly hinder pay settlements,” said Suren Thiru, the economics director of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW).

“The UK jobs market is facing more pain in the coming months with higher labour costs likely to lift unemployment moderately higher, particularly given growing concerns over more tax rises in this autumn’s budget.”

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Tax rises playing ’50:50′ role in rising inflation

What does it mean for interest rates?

While wage rises are slowing, the fact that they’re still above inflation means the interest rate setters of the Bank of England could be cautious about further cuts.

Higher pay can cause inflation to rise. The central bank is mandated to bring down inflation to 2%.

But one more interest rate cut this year, in December, is currently expected by investors, according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG).

The evidence of a weakening labour market provides justification for the interest rate cut of last week.

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Money Problem: ‘My husband is freelance and in hospital – how can I make sure we don’t lose our home?’

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Money Problem: 'My husband is freelance and in hospital - how can I make sure we don't lose our home?'

Every week, our Money blog team finds the answer to a reader’s financial problem or consumer dispute. Here’s our latest…

My husband is freelance and the breadwinner of the family. He is in hospital for an unknown length of time. Is there any support for us in the short term, so we can keep our home?
Anonymous

Our cost of living specialist Megan Harwood-Baynes tackles this one…

I am so sorry to hear this – I have recently been through something similar with my husband, and it can be really stressful when you add financial worries on top of medical issues.

To help you navigate the next steps, I’ve broken this up into what support you can get with your mortgage specifically, government help and some advice on the rest of your bills.

Help with housing

Your most immediate concern seemed to be housing (understandably). First, try not to panic – it is easy to skip to the thought of losing your home, but the last thing your mortgage lender is going to want to do is go through the hassle of repossession for what could just be a short-term issue.

Start by having a look through your insurance – certain types of insurance can help with mortgage repayments if your income falls due to sickness.

(If you don’t have this, make a note to consider taking it out for next time – you never know when something like this could happen again, and income protection insurance could make a huge difference in the future.)

Assuming you don’t have insurance coverage, the next step is to contact your lender. The sooner you do this, the better, as you’re more likely to have better options available to you before you miss a payment.

Things you can ask for include:

  • To lengthen the term of your mortgage;
  • To switch to interest-only repayments;
  • Ask about a temporary mortgage payment holiday.

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There are pros and cons to all of the above, which you should consider carefully.

For example, a mortgage holiday is only suitable as a temporary fix – remember, you are still racking up interest on your remaining mortgage. It will leave the balance and remaining payments higher than they were before.

If you have already missed a payment, you are now in mortgage arrears. This can damage your credit file, and yes, it could eventually lead to you losing your home. But there is still support to get you back on track. Again, contact your lender and ask them for support.

The UK’s biggest mortgage lenders and the Financial Conduct Authority agreed on a set of standards under Rishi Sunak’s government, known as the Mortgage Charter. Under this, lenders are obligated to offer tailored support to anyone struggling – whatever the right option is will depend on your circumstances – so go into discussions with the mindset that they are there to help you.

Government support

If your husband is freelance, you won’t be eligible for Statutory Sick Pay (SSP), but he will be able to claim Employment Support Allowance. This is for people who are self-employed, unemployed, classed as a student or who are employed but not eligible for SSP.

To apply, you will need to demonstrate that he is unable to work because of his illness or injury. The doctors should be able to provide a sick note and medical evidence for this.

You will need to make sure he has paid enough national insurance contributions. He should be able to check his records for gaps and then voluntarily fill them if need be.

He may also be eligible for a personal independence payment or PIP, which is for people living with disabilities or long-term health conditions.

In some cases, he may also be able to claim universal credit – this would be based on his monthly income before he went off sick.

As well as benefits, you may be entitled to a working-from-home tax rebate, or you could reclaim bank charges if you’ve incurred fees for going beyond your limit.

This seems overwhelming, I realise, so the best bet is to start by looking at the government’s benefits calculator.

You should also reach out to Citizens Advice or a charity such as Turn2us for advice from someone who can look at your situation in more detail.

If you aren’t yet in a debt crisis, I would caution against visiting a debt-counselling agency. They may push you towards declaring bankruptcy or an individual voluntary arrangement, which you may not need at this point. They are serious measures designed for those with few options left.

Pic: iStock
Image:
Pic: iStock

Help with bills and all the rest

Before you start missing payments on your bills, try to contact your utility companies first. Explain the circumstances – they are also obligated to help you.

You can claim support with your energy bills and any other costs. There’s no “one-size-fits-all” approach, so the best thing is to contact each of them individually.

Good luck, and I hope your husband recovers soon.

This feature is not intended as financial advice – the aim is to give an overview of the things you should think about. Submit your dilemma or consumer dispute via:

  • WhatsApp here
  • Or email moneyblog@sky.uk with the subject line “Money Problem”

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