Oil alliance OPEC+ could extend production cuts this weekend as focus shifts away from Middle East tensions, sources say
The OPEC logo on the building of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Thomas Coex | Afp | Getty Images
The oil-producing Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies could extend existing output cuts this week, delegates and analysts told CNBC, even as focus shifts from Middle East tensions to summer demand.
The group, collectively known as OPEC+, was set to convene in person in Vienna on June 1, but last week moved the encounter virtually to June 2.
OPEC+ producers are currently implementing a combined 5.86 million barrels per day of supply cuts. Just 2 million barrels per day of these cuts represent unanimous commitments under OPEC group policy, and expire at the end of this year.
The remainder are reduced voluntarily by a subset of the alliance. A cut of 1.66 million per barrel is in place until the end of 2024, and 2.2 million barrels per day of supplies have been trimmed until the end of the second quarter. Market participants are watching whether this latter cut will be extended for another quarter, amid projected demand hikes.
“Come June, China would be largely out of refinery maintenance, U.S. consumption is improving as summer moves closer, so June should already see negative crude balances. And then August is the peak month for tightness,” Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst at Kpler, told CNBC.
The OPEC+ coalition is also eyeing individual members’ quota compliance, asking overproducers to implement additional cuts. Iraq and Kazakhstan have detailed compensation plans.
Extension
Three OPEC+ delegates, who spoke anonymously because of the sensitivity of talks, told CNBC the 2.2 million-barrels-per-day supply reductions will likely be prolonged, with a fourth saying this is the scenario anticipated by the market. One delegate acknowledged the probable market tightness in the second half of the year, but noted that demand concerns persisted until only recently.
OPEC’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report of May projects a 2.25 million barrel-per-day increase in demand this year, while Paris-based International Energy Agency’s Oil Market Report of the same month points to just a 1.06 million-barrel-per-day demand hike.
“I think that the clever thing for OPEC+ would be to gradually unwind the voluntary cuts to limit the upside price pressure, to prevent refilling inflation,” Jorge Leon, senior vice president of Rystad Energy’s Oil Market Research, told CNBC. “However, I think that the market right now has priced in a full extension of the voluntary cuts. So I think that is what, probably, they will do.”
He added, “If they decide to fully extend the voluntary cuts, and there is perfect compliance, and they do the full compensation, and then, if, I think prices could reach closer to $100 per barrel this summer.”
Energy security concerns fueled global inflation in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and were further stoked after the conflict in Gaza threatened a broader spillover in the oil-rich Middle East, while frequent maritime attacks by Yemen’s Houthi militants disrupted trade transit in the Red Sea.
A high-inflation environment and tight monetary policy in turn reined in oil demand, but central banks have signaled readiness to lower interest rates in the second half of the year.
Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Oil Associates, told CNBC that the OPEC+ supply restrictions will likely remain in place for the third quarter, adding, “I also believe that the producer group will emphasize that anyone who did not comply with the quota will have to make amends. And I believe that OPEC+ will only ease the supply constraints when they see obvious signs of global oil inventories depleting.”
Kpler’s Katona aligned with the views, but noted that heavyweights Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United Arab Emirates, who participate in the voluntary reductions, could seek to scrap the latter curbs toward the end of the year.
“Further down the line into 2025, unwinding cuts might be challenging for prices as incremental production from Guyana, Brazil, Canada will saturate the markets,” he said, flagging new Floating Production Storage and Offloading facilities due to come online. “This year there’s no new FPSO in Guyana, whilst next year it starts up a new one in [third-quarter] 2025. Brazil, likewise, has one FPSO starting up this year whilst next year it will be a bonanza of new capacity.”
Rising competing supplies have reduced the market prominence of OPEC+, one OPEC+ delegate acknowledged, while analysts signaled that the group’s ongoing output cuts allows unfettered producers to capture their market share.
Priced in
Oil prices have largely languished range-bound in the first half of the year, under ongoing threat of spikes from developments in the Middle East. Regional escalations could top prices with a risk premium of up to $10 per barrel, Rystad’s Jorge Leon noted – while OPEC+ delegates told CNBC that the situation in the Gaza Strip is still adding a little pressure, but that the market has already absorbed the majority of its effect.
Katona likewise noted that the Gaza crisis “will seemingly persist for longer than everyone expected but it doesn’t really have an imprint on OPEC+ coherence and policy.”
One OPEC+ delegate meanwhile said that the unexpected death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi represented a tragic accident that could not be interpreted as a risk to the market, especially given that his successor will likely pursue similar politics.
“I think the geopolitical risk premium has subsided and I think that the tension between Israel and Hamas will only support prices if it will have an obvious impact on oil production or oil flows, which might come in the form of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, or attacks on oil infrastructure in the region, something which does not look plausible at the moment,” Varga said.
OPEC+ must also balance its relationship with the U.S., which has previously blasted the coalition’s supply cuts amid concerns over gasoline prices. The Biden administration last week said it will release 1 million barrels of gasoline from reserves in a bid to curb prices at the pump. The U.S. undertook similar crude releases from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve Stocks during the Covid-19 pandemic, but one OPEC+ delegate noted such measures are unlikely to have an impact beyond price relief during the summer. The U.S. typically seeks to replenish the emergency stockpile of its state reserves.
Environment
It seems like Elon Musk stoking a civil war in England isn’t good for Tesla’s sales there
Tesla’s EV registrations in the UK, its biggest market in Europe, took a dramatic hit in October 2025 — just 511 units — marking one of the brand’s weakest showings in recent memory. That’s a steep drop from 971 in October 2024 and 2,677 in October 2023. The tone of the market is shifting.
Maybe Tesla’s CEO stoking a civil war in England isn’t helping the automaker’s demand in the important market.
Tesla’s sales have been struggling in Europe over the past two years, and the decline has been accelerating in 2025.
While some believed that things were stabilizing for the American automaker in Europe, the October data tells a different story. Tesla had its worst month of deliveries of the year in 12 of its 15 biggest European markets.
As Tesla sales in Germany crashed over the last year, partly because Tesla CEO Elon Musk supported the far-right AfD party, the UK became Tesla’s biggest market in Europe.
But now it looks like the UK is going in the same direction.
According to registration data, Tesla delivered only 511 vehicles in the UK in October 2025. Tesla has over 50 stores in the country – that’s an average of roughly 10 vehicles per location for the whole month.
It’s the worst monthly performance since October 2022.
Much as Tesla’s demand crashed in Germany, Elon Musk’s politics might be behind the lower demand in the UK.
The CEO regularly comments on UK politics and often shares inflammatory reports about crimes perpetrated by immigrants. He also shares misleading crime and immigration statistics aimed at spreading hatred.
After he tweeted that “Civil war is inevitable. Just a question of when.”, he was accused of stoking a civil war in the country.
Musk’s public commentary on UK topics has sparked backlash and resulted in his “unfavorability rating” reaching 80% in the country.
Electrek’s Take
Meanwhile, Tesla’s demand cliff is opening the door to competitors. BYD is now expected to outsell Tesla in the whole year of 2025 in the UK despite Tesla having a presence in the market for much longer.
Not many industry watchers thought it would happen this fast.
Tesla appears to be completely missing out on the surge of EV sales in Europe due to a mix of having a stagnant EV lineup, brand problems brought on by a controversial CEO, and increased competition.
In the US, Musk is believed to have cost Tesla about 1 million sales over the last 3 years.
I think it will soon be approaching this number in Europe.
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Rondo Energy and energy producer EDP are installing a massive 100 MWh renewable-powered heat battery at HEINEKEN’s brewery in Lisbon, Portugal. The project will deliver round-the-clock renewable steam and reduce emissions without altering the facility’s beer brewing process.
Brewing HEINEKEN with zero-carbon steam
The Rondo Heat Battery (RHB) will be the biggest deployed in the beverage industry worldwide. It can store electricity as high-temperature heat using refractory bricks, then convert that heat into 24/7 steam, all without burning fossil fuels.
At HEINEKEN’s Central de Cervejas e Bebidas Brewery and Malting Plant, the heat battery system will supply 7 MW of steam, powered by renewable electricity from onsite solar and the grid. That steam is identical to steam created by gas-fired boilers, but without the carbon pollution.
EDP is providing the renewable electricity and will deliver the steam directly to HEINEKEN via a Heat-as-a-Service model. Rondo is supplying the battery, and HEINEKEN gets to ditch fossil fuels without retooling its brewing process.
Why this matters
This project is a big win for industrial decarbonization. High-temperature steam is one of the most complex parts of manufacturing to electrify, and the beer industry runs on it. HEINEKEN’s Lisbon site already uses solar panels for electricity and electric heat pumps for hot water, and this move helps it go even further.
It’s part of HEINEKEN’s “Brew a Better World” plan to hit net zero emissions by 2040 and decarbonize all of its global production sites by 2030.
Additionally, the deployment aligns with Portugal’s national target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030.
The bigger picture
With the European Investment Bank and Breakthrough Energy Catalyst backing this and other Rondo projects with €75 million in funding, this Lisbon installation is just the beginning. Rondo’s technology enables energy-hungry industries to switch from fossil fuels to renewable electricity without compromising 24/7 operations.
Rondo CEO Eric Trusiewicz sums it up: “We are thrilled to be installing our first Rondo Heat Battery in Iberia, and to support HEINEKEN to reach its goals. We look forward to helping industries across Iberia cut costs and carbon, and help Iberia capitalize on the opportunity.”
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Lucid Group (LCID) reported third-quarter earnings after the market closed on Wednesday, missing top and bottom-line estimates.
With 4,078 vehicles delivered in Q3, Lucid marked its seventh straight quarter with higher deliveries. Through the first nine months of 2025, Lucid delivered nearly 10,500 vehicles, more than the roughly 10,200 it handed over in 2024.
Although supply chain issues hampered production in the first half of the year, Lucid’s CEO Marc Winterhoff said the company made “significant progress ramping production of the Lucid Gravity through Q3,” including adding a second manufacturing shift at its Casa Grande, Arizona, plant.
Lucid produced 3,891 vehicles in Q3, missing estimates of around 5,600. With 9,966 EVs produced through the third quarter, Lucid will need to build over 8,000 more to meet its full-year production goal of 18,000 to 20,000.
According to estimates, Lucid is expected to report an adjusted quarterly loss of $2.27 per share on revenue of $352 million in Q3 2025.
Lucid Group Q3 2025 earnings breakdown
Lucid missed top and bottom-line estimates as it continues to address industry-wide supply chain issues that are hampering production of the Gravity SUV.
Although it missed estimates, Lucid reported Q3 revenue of $336.6 million, which is still up 68% from $200 million in the same period last year.
Lucid’s net loss narrowed to $978.4 million in the third quarter, or $3.31 per share, from $992.5 million, or $4.09 per share, in Q3 2024. On an adjusted basis, Lucid posted a loss of $2.65 per share.
In addition, Lucid said it agreed with Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) to increase the delayed draw term loan credit facility (DDTL) from $750 million to around $2 billion.
Given the increase, Lucid said total liquidity would have been around $5.5 billion at the end of Q3, up from the $4.2 billion it reported. Lucid ended the third quarter with $1.6 billion in cash and equivalents.
Lucid said liquidity is enough to fund it through the first half of 2027, up from the second half of 2026, as previously forecast. Lucid plans to launch production of its more affordable midsize platform in late 2026 with vehicles starting at around $50,000.
Lucid confirmed it was still on track to start production of the midsize platform later next year. However, given the supply chain issues, it now expects to hit the lower end of its production goal at around 18,000.
Winterhoff said the company “remains intensely focused on ramping up production and addressing the significant supply chain disruptions impacting the entire industry.”
Lucid is advancing other emerging tech, including autonomy and intelligent mobility. Through a new partnership with NVIDIA, Lucid aims to be among the first to offer Level 4 autonomous driving.
The third-quarter earnings miss comes after Rivian (RIVN) beat expectations this week, reporting higher revenue and improving gross margins.
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