Trump guilty: What it means for the election

Published

6 months ago

May 31, 2024

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There’s guilty and there’s not guilty.

Then there’s ‘whatever’, the verdict that Donald Trump had already bagged long before a New York court delivered its judgement.

Beyond the breakdown of a 12-member jury panel, the portion of America that will shrug its shoulders at this case’s conclusion means Donald Trump has numbers he can work with, politically. For now, at least.

Time will tell how the status change to “criminal” affects his bid to return to the White House. Notably, polls indicate it will go down badly with independent voters.

For his opponents, it will need to – because, in six weeks of a criminal trial, it didn’t.

Trump guilty latest: Ex-US president says he is a ‘very innocent man’

For all the talk of due process having due impact on a presidential campaign, of evidence laid bare to land a political death warrant, the Trump campaign remains alive and kicking.

Head-to-head polls with Joe Biden still show a tight contest, with Trump ahead in key swing states. The trial has also boosted his campaign war chest – his fund-raising was greater than Joe Biden in the month of April, a 2024 first.

While this trial has been a thunderous legal watershed for the United States, there are reasons why it has not reverberated as it might, and as Trump’s opponents would have hoped.

Of the four criminal trials he faces, it was the least serious. Placed against the heavyweight charges around the mishandling of classified government documents and efforts to subvert democracy, the New York crimes had a featherweight feel.

It was rather more than the “bookkeeping error” that Trump would have had us believe but there are factors beyond his characterisation that minimise impact.

The prosecutors’ witness list was populated by unsympathetic characters to whom you would not hand your house keys.

Michael Cohen, aka star witness, presented his own story of theft, dishonesty and tax evasion. Then there was David Pecker, the slippery tabloid rascal who brought us headlines like “Bungling Surgeon Ben Carson Left Sponge in Patient’s Brain”.

They were central to a prosecution case wrapped in a parcel of rogues and it weakened the ‘good versus evil’ narrative that sharpens a public’s response.

There was also the matter of trial fatigue, before it even got underway. The charges, the witness evidence and the response of the accused had all been aired loudly and often over months leading up to the trial itself.

As much as five weeks of evidence provided a gripping insight, we had heard the headlines before. The cases for the prosecution and defence were pre-cast in the public consciousness and so, largely, were conclusions around guilt and innocence.

Then there were the noises off. Time spent in the vicinity of courtroom number 1530 in Lower Manhattan was time spent listening to Donald Trump campaigning in the corridors of the court building, with a supporting cast addressing the media outside.

Suburban vehicles and Secret Service transported the modern Republican Party’s great and good from Capitol Hill in daily convoys to loudhailer a backing chorus of ‘sham trial, weaponised justice department and political witch hunt.’

It was a political wall of sound designed to drown out the business of the court on a given day, every day. They were not the headline act in this corner of Lower Manhattan but they were headline enough to influence the story in its telling.

So, what story will America be telling when the dust settles on this, the only criminal trial Donald Trump is likely to face before the November election?

Will voters be discussing Donald Trump? Definitely.

Will they be poring over the detail and significance of a felony conviction? Probably.

Will there be a lingering sense of shock and awe at court’s evidence and jury’s verdict? Almost certainly not.

He has already been convicted in civil court of fraud and been found liable for sexual assault. The judge in the sexual assault case called it “rape”.

If Donald Trump was in prison, he would be segregated for his own safety, and yet, in the general population he’s positioned well for a return to the presidency.

It is the curious context for this court case and its aftermath. Whatever the difference a criminal conviction makes, the sense of ‘whatever’ might mean it makes no difference at all.

US

Trump is unlikely to take Biden’s advice on China – and it could change the world

Published

1 day ago

November 17, 2024

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Trump is unlikely to take Biden's advice on China - and it could change the world

As the two most powerful countries in the world, the relationship between the United States and China is the most consequential of all bilateral ties.

Any change in interactions and behaviour by either side does not just impact security, economic activity and trade in Washington and Beijing, but also affects the rest of the planet.

President Xi Jinping chose to make this point publicly as he said hello – and presumably goodbye – to Joe Biden when the two men met on the sidelines of an economic forum in Peru in what was likely their last face-to-face sit down before the US leader hands the keys to the White House over to Donald Trump.

“As two major countries, China and the United States should bear in mind the interest of the whole world and inject more certainty and positive energy into the turbulent world,” Mr Xi said, speaking through a translator.

“It is my consistent belief that as the world’s most important bilateral relationship, a stable China-US relationship is critical not only to the interests of the Chinese and American peoples but also to the future and destiny of the entire humanity.”

Mr Biden, whose relationship with his opposite number does not just span his four years as president but also when he previously served as vice president under Barack Obama, also focused on the importance of dialogue.

“We haven’t always agreed, but our conversations have always been candid and always been frank,” he said, sitting at a long table, surrounded by aides, with Mr Xi opposite him.

“I think that’s vital. These conversations prevent miscalculations, and they ensure the competition between our two countries will not veer into conflict. Be competition, not conflict.”

While clearly directed at him, it is doubtful that Mr Trump will heed the advice.

He has consistently criticised the Biden administration for being too soft on Beijing and has vowed to be much tougher – even saying he would impose 60% tariffs on Chinese imports.

The president-elect’s picks for top jobs in the White House, such as with China hawks Senator Marco Rubio as his desired secretary of state, and Representative Mike Walz as national security adviser, also point to a hardening in the US’ position on Beijing – which is on a trajectory to overtake Washington as the world’s number one superpower.

This moment of re-ordering in global dominance – something the UK was once forced to absorb when the sun set on the British Empire – is on course to happen regardless of who is in the White House.

But a more hostile and combative commander-in-chief in the White House makes it an increasingly perilous time for everyone.

It is perhaps why the current leaders in Beijing and Washington are so keen to stress that while their feelings towards one another go up and down, the ability to keep talking is critical.

US

Xi Jinping says China is ‘ready to work’ with Donald Trump during last meeting with Joe Biden

Published

1 day ago

November 17, 2024

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Xi Jinping says China is 'ready to work' with Donald Trump during last meeting with Joe Biden

Joe Biden has met with Xi Jinping for the last time as US president, where the Chinese leader said he is “ready to work” with Donald Trump.

Speaking at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Lima, Peru, Mr Biden said the US and China’s relationship should be about “competition, not conflict”.

“We haven’t always agreed, but our conversations have always been candid and always been frank,” he said.

“We’ve never kidded one another. These conversations prevent miscalculations, and they ensure the competition between our two countries will not veer into conflict.

“We’ve been level with one another. I think that’s vital.”

Their last-ever meeting comes as president-elect Donald Trump vows to introduce blanket 60% tariffs on US imports of Chinese goods as part of a series of “America First” trade measures.

But despite Mr Trump’s proposed measures, Mr Xi said his country’s goal “of a stable, healthy and sustainable China-US relationship remains unchanged”.

“Our commitment to mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and… cooperation as principles for handling China-US relations remains unchanged,” he added.

The Chinese president then said the country is “ready to work with the new US administration to maintain communication, expand cooperation and manage differences, so as to strive for a steady transition”.

Neither Mr Xi nor Mr Biden responded to a question about whether there were concerns about Mr Trump’s proposed tariffs.

The president-elect has also named several China hawks to his transition team, such as Senator Marco Rubio as secretary of state and Representative Mike Waltz as national security adviser.

Under Mr Biden, Washington has introduced restrictions on US investment in Chinese artificial intelligence, quantum computing and semiconductors.

Former house speaker Nancy Pelosi also visited the island of Taiwan – which China views as a breakaway province – in April 2022.

In their meeting at this time last year – which followed a surge in tensions when an alleged Chinese spy balloon was shot down over the US – both leaders said direct communication between American and Chinese military forces would be restored.

US

Mike Tyson reveals he ‘almost died’ ahead of fight with YouTuber-turned-boxer Jake Paul

Published

1 day ago

November 17, 2024

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Mike Tyson reveals he 'almost died' ahead of fight with YouTuber-turned-boxer Jake Paul

Former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson says the health scare in June, which forced the postponement of his boxing match with Jake Paul, almost cost him his life.

“I almost died in June,” Tyson wrote on X, adding that he “had 8 blood transfusions. Lost half my blood and 25lbs in hospital”.

The 58-year-old, who lost to the YouTuber-turned-boxer in a unanimous points decision in Texas, tweeted that the situation was far worse than people had realised.

Following Tyson’s recovery, after reportedly suffering an ulcer flareup, he reflected on the result of the fight.

“This is one of those situations when you lost but still won… no regrets to get in the ring one last time,” he said.

That contrasts with Tyson’s comments after the match in which he refused to confirm whether it would be his last fight.

“It depends on the situation,” Tyson said before suggesting a fight with Paul’s older brother, Logan Paul, who was standing near him in the ring.

Critics argued that the revised match – which involved fewer and shortened rounds, as well as heavier gloves – fell short of entertaining.

Some claimed it appeared more like a glorified sparring session.

It was Tyson’s first sanctioned pro bout since 2005, when he lost to Kevin McBride and then went into retirement – only briefly reappearing for an exhibition match in 2020 against Roy Jones Jr.

Paul has plenty to prove

Paul, 27, still has plenty to prove. The social media influencer wants to be a championship fighter and compete for a championship belt within two years. “I think it could happen in the next 24 months,” Paul said.

“I truly, truly believe in my skills and my ability and my power. And the cruiserweight division is seemingly open for the taking on that timeline,” he added.

The only professional match he has lost so far has been to Tommy Fury, the less-accomplished brother of former heavyweight champion Tyson Fury.

But there are questions about when Paul will fight a contender in his prime, as opposed to former champions or mixed martial artists.

Could Paul really take on Alvarez?

Intriguingly, in the days before his fight with Tyson, Paul mentioned super middleweight champion Canelo Alvarez, considered one of the best boxers in the world.

According to reports, the Texas bout earned Paul $40m (£31.7m) versus $20m (£15.8m) for Tyson.

Netflix said 60 million households worldwide viewed the contest on its streaming platform, and nearly 50 million tuned in to watch the undercard which saw Ireland’s Katie Taylor beat Puerto Rico’s Amanda Serrano.

Even so there were some technical glitches. More than 90,000 users reported problems on Netflix at its peak, according to the website Downdetector, which tracks outages.