Trump guilty: What it means for the election
There’s guilty and there’s not guilty.
Then there’s ‘whatever’, the verdict that Donald Trump had already bagged long before a New York court delivered its judgement.
Beyond the breakdown of a 12-member jury panel, the portion of America that will shrug its shoulders at this case’s conclusion means Donald Trump has numbers he can work with, politically. For now, at least.
Time will tell how the status change to “criminal” affects his bid to return to the White House. Notably, polls indicate it will go down badly with independent voters.
For his opponents, it will need to – because, in six weeks of a criminal trial, it didn’t.
Trump guilty latest: Ex-US president says he is a ‘very innocent man’
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Moment historic decision confirmed
For all the talk of due process having due impact on a presidential campaign, of evidence laid bare to land a political death warrant, the Trump campaign remains alive and kicking.
Head-to-head polls with Joe Biden still show a tight contest, with Trump ahead in key swing states. The trial has also boosted his campaign war chest – his fund-raising was greater than Joe Biden in the month of April, a 2024 first.
While this trial has been a thunderous legal watershed for the United States, there are reasons why it has not reverberated as it might, and as Trump’s opponents would have hoped.
Stormy Daniels. Pic: AP
Of the four criminal trials he faces, it was the least serious. Placed against the heavyweight charges around the mishandling of classified government documents and efforts to subvert democracy, the New York crimes had a featherweight feel.
It was rather more than the “bookkeeping error” that Trump would have had us believe but there are factors beyond his characterisation that minimise impact.
The prosecutors’ witness list was populated by unsympathetic characters to whom you would not hand your house keys.
Michael Cohen, aka star witness, presented his own story of theft, dishonesty and tax evasion. Then there was David Pecker, the slippery tabloid rascal who brought us headlines like “Bungling Surgeon Ben Carson Left Sponge in Patient’s Brain”.
They were central to a prosecution case wrapped in a parcel of rogues and it weakened the ‘good versus evil’ narrative that sharpens a public’s response.
Read more:
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Can Trump still be president after being convicted?
There was also the matter of trial fatigue, before it even got underway. The charges, the witness evidence and the response of the accused had all been aired loudly and often over months leading up to the trial itself.
As much as five weeks of evidence provided a gripping insight, we had heard the headlines before. The cases for the prosecution and defence were pre-cast in the public consciousness and so, largely, were conclusions around guilt and innocence.
Then there were the noises off. Time spent in the vicinity of courtroom number 1530 in Lower Manhattan was time spent listening to Donald Trump campaigning in the corridors of the court building, with a supporting cast addressing the media outside.
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‘This is a rigged trial’
Suburban vehicles and Secret Service transported the modern Republican Party’s great and good from Capitol Hill in daily convoys to loudhailer a backing chorus of ‘sham trial, weaponised justice department and political witch hunt.’
It was a political wall of sound designed to drown out the business of the court on a given day, every day. They were not the headline act in this corner of Lower Manhattan but they were headline enough to influence the story in its telling.
Trump supporters outside court. Pic: Reuters
So, what story will America be telling when the dust settles on this, the only criminal trial Donald Trump is likely to face before the November election?
Will voters be discussing Donald Trump? Definitely.
Will they be poring over the detail and significance of a felony conviction? Probably.
Will there be a lingering sense of shock and awe at court’s evidence and jury’s verdict? Almost certainly not.
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What happens next for Donald Trump?
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He has already been convicted in civil court of fraud and been found liable for sexual assault. The judge in the sexual assault case called it “rape”.
If Donald Trump was in prison, he would be segregated for his own safety, and yet, in the general population he’s positioned well for a return to the presidency.
It is the curious context for this court case and its aftermath. Whatever the difference a criminal conviction makes, the sense of ‘whatever’ might mean it makes no difference at all.
There are 161 people still missing in Texas in the aftermath of last weekend’s deadly flash floods, the state’s governor has said.
Speaking at a news conference on Tuesday, governor Gregg Abbot said the number of missing had risen markedly.
He said among the missing were five children and one counsellor from Camp Mystic – where at least 27 people were killed in the flash flooding.
At least 109 people are confirmed to have died in the floods, which took place on the 4 July weekend, but this figure has been steadily climbing ever since.
People comforted each other in Kerville. Pic: Jason Fochtman/Houston Chronicle via AP
The bulk of deaths, and the main search for additional bodies, have been concentrated in Kerr County and the city of Kerrville.
The area was transformed into a disaster zone when torrential rains struck the region early last Friday, unleashing deadly flooding along the Guadalupe River.
Travis County, Kendall County, Burnett County, Williamson County, and Tom Green County were also hit.
Mr Abbot said many of those who were unaccounted for were in the Texas Hill Country area, but had not registered at a camp or hotel, posing further challenges for authorities.
Camp Mystic
Mr Abbot planned to make another visit to Camp Mystic.
The century-old all-girls Christian summer camp was badly hit by the flash floods, with at least 27 campers and counsellors dying.
Hanna Lawrence, left, and Rebecca Lawrence, right. Pic: John Lawrence/AP
Lila Bonner (L) and Eloise Peck both died in the flash floods at Camp Mystic, Texas. Pic: Family handout
Chloe Childress. Pic: Debra Alexander Photography via AP
Some of the victims include Hanna and Rebecca Lawrence, both eight, Chloe Childress, 19, who was among the counsellors at Camp Mystic when the flood hit, and Eloise Peck and Lila Bonner, both nine.
There were scenes of devastation at the camp as the flood water receded.
Outside the cabins where the girls had slept, mud-splattered blankets and pillows were scattered.
Also in the debris were pink, purple and light blue luggage, decorated with stickers.
A view inside a cabin at Camp Mystic after the flooding. Pic: Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP via Getty Images
Camper’s belongings lie on the ground following flooding on the Guadalupe River, at Camp Mystic.
Pic: Reuters
‘Everything looked flooded and broken’
One of the campers, 10-year-old Lucy Kennedy, told Sky’s US partner network, NBC News, that she woke up to the sound of thunder at around midnight before the floods struck.
“I couldn’t go back to sleep,” she said. “I just had a feeling that something really bad was about to happen.”
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She said the girls at the camp were told to grab blankets, pillows and water bottles and line up single file as the floodwater rose, before getting airlifted to safety.
Wynne Kennedy, Lucy’s mother, added: “When I saw her, she was wrapped up in a blanket, had a teddy bear.
“We just held each other tight, and I held her all night.”
Their home in Kerrville was also destroyed by the flash floods.
Lucy Kennedy, 10 who was rescued from Camp Mystic, and her mother Wynne. Pic: NBC
Political row
Meanwhile, a political row has unfolded parallel to the recovery efforts, with some questioning whether local authorities sent out warnings and alerts early enough.
Similarly, Democrats have criticised Donald Trump over cuts his Elon Musk-launched Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has made to the National Weather Service – but it isn’t clear whether these actually made any difference.
Read more:
Sisters killed in Texas flooding found holding hands
Why did deadly Texas floods catch people by surprise?
Wall of water
The flash floods erupted before daybreak on Friday, after massive amounts of rainfall caused the Guadalupe River to rise by eight metres in less than an hour.
The wall of water overwhelmed cabins, tents and trails along the river’s edge.
Some survivors were found clinging to trees.
Some of the campers had to swim out of their cabin windows to get to safety, while others clung to rope to make it to higher ground.
The date for Sean “Diddy” Combs’s sentencing hearing has been confirmed.
Following his high-profile trial, the hip-hop mogul was found guilty of two counts of transportation for prostitution by jurors in Manhattan, New York, last week – but was cleared of sex-trafficking and racketeering conspiracy.
Defence lawyers argued Combs, who has been in prison in Brooklyn since his arrest in September last year, should be bailed ahead of sentencing given the not guilty verdicts for the more serious charges, but Judge Arun Subramanian denied this – citing, among other things, the rapper’s own admissions of previous violent behaviour.
Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs in court after the verdict was delivered. Pic: Reuters/ Jane Rosenberg
The charges of sex-trafficking and racketeering conspiracy carried a potential life sentence. Combs still faces up to 20 years in prison for the prostitution-related offences, but is not expected to receive the maximum punishment.
After the verdict was delivered, the judge scheduled the sentencing hearing for 3 October. At a remote follow-up conference on Tuesday, with agreement from the defence and prosecution, the judge approved the date.
Combs joined the call but did not make any comment.
Any sentence will include credit for time already served – which will be just over a year by the time the hearing takes place.
During his trial, Combs was accused by prosecutors of abusing and coercing three alleged victims, including his former long-term partner, singer and model Cassie Ventura.
Jurors found the allegations did not amount to sex-trafficking or racketeering, or running a criminal enterprise – but they did find him guilty of transporting Cassie and another former girlfriend “Jane” for prostitution offences around the US, and paying male escorts to engage in sexual encounters.
Despite the guilty verdict on those charges, the 55-year-old’s team described it as “the victory of all victories”.
Read more:
How the trial unfolded
The rise and fall of Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs
In an interview over the weekend, defence lawyer Marc Agnifilo said Combs had received a standing ovation from fellow inmates when he returned to jail after being acquitted of the more serious charges.
“They all said, ‘We never get to see anyone who beats the government’,” he said.
Ahead of sentencing, Combs’s lawyers will file their recommendations by 19 September, with prosecutors likely to follow a week later.
Prosecutors previously said the rapper could face about four to five years in prison under federal sentencing guidelines, while the defence has suggested a two-year sentence.
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