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Jensen Huang, co-founder and chief executive officer of Nvidia Corp., during the Nvidia GPU Technology Conference (GTC) in San Jose, California, US, on Tuesday, March 19, 2024. 

David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Nvidia’s 27% rally in May pushed its market cap to $2.7 trillion, behind only Microsoft and Apple among the most-valuable public companies in the world. The chipmaker reported a tripling in year-over-year sales for the third straight quarter driven by soaring demand for its artificial intelligence processors.

Mizuho Securities estimates that Nvidia controls between 70% and 95% of the market for AI chips used for training and deploying models like OpenAI’s GPT. Underscoring Nvidia’s pricing power is a 78% gross margin, a stunningly high number for a hardware company that has to manufacture and ship physical products.

Rival chipmakers Intel and Advanced Micro Devices reported gross margins in the latest quarter of 41% and 47%, respectively.

Nvidia’s position in the AI chip market has been described as a moat by some experts. Its flagship AI graphics processing units (GPUs), such as the H100, coupled with the company’s CUDA software led to such a head start on the competition that switching to an alternative can seem almost unthinkable.

Still, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, whose net worth has swelled from $3 billion to about $90 billion in the past five years, has said he’s “worried and concerned” about his 31-year-old company losing its edge. He acknowledged at a conference late last year that there are many powerful competitors on the rise.

“I don’t think people are trying to put me out of business,” Huang said in November. “I probably know they’re trying to, so that’s different.”

Nvidia has committed to releasing a new AI chip architecture every year, rather than every other year as was the case historically, and to putting out new software that could more deeply entrench its chips in AI software.

But Nvidia’s GPU isn’t alone in being able to run the complex math that underpins generative AI. If less powerful chips can do the same work, Huang might be justifiably paranoid.

The transition from training AI models to what’s called inference — or deploying the models — could also give companies an opportunity to replace Nvidia’s GPUs, especially if they’re less expensive to buy and run. Nvidia’s flagship chip costs roughly $30,000 or more, giving customers plenty of incentive to seek alternatives.

“Nvidia would love to have 100% of it, but customers would not love for Nvidia to have 100% of it,” said Sid Sheth, co-founder of aspiring rival D-Matrix. “It’s just too big of an opportunity. It would be too unhealthy if any one company took all of it.”

Founded in 2019, D-Matrix plans to release a semiconductor card for servers later this year that aims to reduce the cost and latency of running AI models. The company raised $110 million in September.

In addition to D-Matrix, companies ranging from multinational corporations to nascent startups are fighting for a slice of the AI chip market that could reach $400 billion in annual sales in the next five years, according to market analysts and AMD. Nvidia has generated about $80 billion in revenue over the past four quarters, and Bank of America estimates the company sold $34.5 billion in AI chips last year.

Many companies taking on Nvidia’s GPUs are betting that a different architecture or certain trade-offs could produce a better chip for particular tasks. Device makers are also developing technology that could end up doing a lot of the computing for AI that’s currently taking place in large GPU-based clusters in the cloud.

“Nobody can deny that today Nvidia is the hardware you want to train and run AI models,” Fernando Vidal, co-founder of 3Fourteen Research, told CNBC. “But there’s been incremental progress in leveling the playing field, from hyperscalers working on their own chips, to even little startups, designing their own silicon.”

AMD CEO Lisa Su wants investors to believe there’s plenty of room for many successful companies in the space.

“The key is that there are a lot of options there,” Su told reporters in December, when her company launched its most recent AI chip. “I think we’re going to see a situation where there’s not only one solution, there will be multiple solutions.”

Other big chipmakers

Lisa Su displays an AMD Instinct MI300 chip as she delivers a keynote address at CES 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Jan. 4, 2023.

David Becker | Getty Images

Nvidia’s top customers

How AWS is designing its own chips to help catch Microsoft and Google in generative A.I. race

One potential challenge for Nvidia is that it’s competing against some of its biggest customers. Cloud providers including Google, Microsoft and Amazon are all building processors for internal use. The Big Tech three, plus Oracle, make up over 40% of Nvidia’s revenue.

Amazon introduced its own AI-oriented chips in 2018, under the Inferentia brand name. Inferentia is now on its second version. In 2021, Amazon Web Services debuted Tranium targeted to training. Customers can’t buy the chips but they can rent systems through AWS, which markets the chips as more cost efficient than Nvidia’s.

Google is perhaps the cloud provider most committed to its own silicon. The company has been using what it calls Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) since 2015 to train and deploy AI models. In May, Google announced the sixth version of its chip, Trillium, which the company said was used to develop its models, including Gemini and Imagen.

Google also uses Nvidia chips and offers them through its cloud.

Microsoft isn’t as far along. The company said last year that it was building its own AI accelerator and processor, called Maia and Cobalt.

Meta isn’t a cloud provider, but the company needs massive amounts of computing power to run its software and website and to serve ads. While the Facebook parent company is buying billions of dollars worth of Nvidia processors, it said in April that some of its homegrown chips were already in data centers and enabled “greater efficiency” compared to GPUs.

JPMorgan analysts estimated in May that the market for building custom chips for big cloud providers could be worth as much as $30 billion, with potential growth of 20% per year.

Startups

Cerebras’ WSE-3 chip is one example of new silicon from upstarts designed to run and train artificial intelligence.

Cerebras Systems

Venture capitalists see opportunities for emerging companies to jump into the game. They invested $6 billion in AI semiconductor companies in 2023, up slightly from $5.7 billion a year earlier, according to data from PitchBook.

It’s a tough area for startups as semiconductors are expensive to design, develop and manufacture. But there are opportunities for differentiation.

For Cerebras Systems, an AI chipmaker in Silicon Valley, the focus is on basic operations and bottlenecks for AI, versus the more general purpose nature of a GPU. The company was founded in 2015 and was valued at $4 billion during its most recent fundraising, according to Bloomberg.

The Cerebras chip, WSE-2, puts GPU capabilities as well as central processing and additional memory into a single device, which is better for training large models, said CEO Andrew Feldman.

“We use a giant chip, they use a lot of little chips,” Feldman said. “They’ve got challenges of moving data around, we don’t.”

Feldman said his company, which counts Mayo Clinic, GlaxoSmithKline, and the U.S. Military as clients, is winning business for its supercomputing systems even going up against Nvidia.

“There’s ample competition and I think that’s healthy for the ecosystem,” Feldman said.

Sheth from D-Matrix said his company plans to release a card with its chiplet later this year that will allow for more computation in memory, as opposed to on a chip like a GPU. D-Matrix’s product can be slotted into an AI server along existing GPUs, but it takes work off of Nvidia chips, and helps to lower the cost of generative AI.

Customers “are very receptive and very incentivized to enable a new solution to come to market,” Sheth said.

Apple and Qualcomm

Apple iPhone 15 series devices are displayed for sale at The Grove Apple retail store on release day in Los Angeles, California, on September 22, 2023. 

Patrick T. Fallon | Afp | Getty Images

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SEC says Elon Musk should be sanctioned if he keeps dodging Twitter depositions

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SEC says Elon Musk should be sanctioned if he keeps dodging Twitter depositions

Elon Musk, Chief Executive Officer of SpaceX and Tesla and owner of X looks on during the Milken Conference 2024 Global Conference Sessions at The Beverly Hilton in Beverly Hills, California, U.S., May 6, 2024. 

David Swanson | Reuters

The Securities and Exchange Commission has asked a federal judge to sanction Elon Musk if he continues to violate the court’s order to appear for a deposition in a probe of his 2022 Twitter acquisition.

The SEC has been investigating whether Musk or anyone else working with him committed securities fraud in 2022 as the Tesla CEO sold shares in his automaker and shored up a stake in Twitter, ahead of his leveraged buyout of the company now known as X.

In May, the court ordered Musk to appear for a deposition by the financial regulators regarding the Twitter deal.

“Musk has now failed to appear before the SEC twice: first in September 2023, in defiance of a lawful administrative subpoena, and last week, in defiance of a clear court order,” SEC attorney Robin Andrews said in the Friday filing.

Andrews asked the judge to consider sanctions should Musk delay further, according to the filing.

“The Court must make clear that Musk’s gamesmanship and delay tactics must cease,” Andrews wrote.

The filing also revealed, in a footnote, that the SEC intends to ask the court to hold Musk in “civil contempt” for canceling a deposition on Sept. 10, giving the agency only a few hours notice that he would not appear. Musk’s cancellation cost the SEC time and money after it sent personnel to Los Angeles to depose him and he didn’t appear for the investigative interview, the agency said.

Musk’s deposition in the probe has been rescheduled for a date in early October at an SEC office, the filing said.

“Without further action by the Court, nothing deters Musk” from “simply failing to show up for that date,” Andrews wrote.

Musk’s attorney, Alex Spiro, a partner at Quinn Emanuel in New York, wrote in a response that “such drastic action would be inappropriate,” adding that the SEC and Musk had agreed rescheduling would be permissible in light of an emergency.

Additionally, Musk and his companies have “cooperated and are cooperating with the SEC in multiple other ongoing investigations,” Spiro wrote.

In a separate, civil lawsuit concerning the same Twitter deal, the Oklahoma Firefighters Pension and Retirement System has sued Musk in a federal court in New York accusing him of deliberately concealing his progressive investments in Twitter and intent to buy out the company.

The pension fund’s attorneys argue that Musk, by failing to clearly disclose his investments in and intentions to buy Twitter, had influenced other shareholders’ decisions and put them at a disadvantage.

Discovery from that case in New York yielded correspondence between an unnamed person at Morgan Stanley, and the executive who manages Musk’s money, Jared Birchall. In the messages, the Morgan Stanley contact wrote in February 2022 that Musk’s Twitter stock-buying strategy was closely held.

“No one knows what is going on and why but you and me,” the person at Morgan Stanley wrote. “Not compliance, not anyone.”

Read the court filing below:

Elon Musk's X is a financial 'disaster,' co-authors of new book 'Character Limit' say

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Qualcomm recently approached Intel about a possible takeover

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Qualcomm recently approached Intel about a possible takeover

Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon speaks at the Computex forum in Taipei, Taiwan, June 3, 2024.

Ann Wang | Reuters

Qualcomm recently approached struggling chipmaker Intel about a takeover, CNBC has confirmed.

It wasn’t clear if Intel had engaged in conversations with Qualcomm or what the terms would be, according to a person familiar with the matter who asked not to be named because the information was confidential.

The Wall Street Journal was first to report on the matter. Intel shares initially popped on the news before closing up about 3%, while Qualcomm shares fell about 3% at the close. 

The deal, if it were to happen, would be one of the largest technology mergers ever. Intel has a market cap of over $90 billion.

Once the world’s largest chipmaker, Intel has for years been in a downward spiral that accelerated in 2024. The stock had its biggest one-day drop in over 50 years in August after the company reported disappointing earnings. Intel shares are down 53% this year as investors express doubts about the company’s costly plans to manufacture and design chips.

Qualcomm and Intel compete in several markets, including for PC and laptop chips. However, Qualcomm, unlike Intel, doesn’t manufacture its own chips, and instead relies on firms such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and Samsung to handle production.

On Monday, after a board meeting to discuss strategy, Intel CEO Patrick Gelsinger sent a memo to staff that reiterated the company’s commitment to investing heavily in its foundry business, a project that could cost $100 billion over the next five years. It also said that it was weighing outside investment.

Intel has also missed out on the artificial intelligence boom that’s captured the attention of Wall Street. Most of the advanced AI programs, such as ChatGPT, run on Nvidia graphics processors, instead of Intel central processors. Nvidia has more than 80% of the fast-growing market, according to analysts.

Qualcomm generates less revenue than Intel. It reported $35.8 billion in sales in fiscal 2023, compared with Intel’s $54.2 billion during the same period.

A potential deal would be complicated by antitrust and national security matters. Both Intel and Qualcomm do business in China, and both have seen deals scuttled by Chinese antitrust enforcers. Intel was unsuccessful with its attempted acquisition of Tower Semiconductor, as was Qualcomm in its bid to acquire NXP Semiconductor.

Other giant acquisitions in the space have also been scuttled. In 2017, Broadcom made a bid to buy Qualcomm for more than $100 billion. The Trump administration blocked the deal the following year on national security concerns, because Broadcom was based in Singapore at the time. And in 2021, the Federal Trade Commission sued to block Nvidia’s attempted purchase of Arm on antitrust grounds. The deal was called off in 2022 following additional pressure from regulators in Europe and Asia.

Representatives for Qualcomm and Intel declined to comment.

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Apple iPhone 16, Apple Watch Series 10 and AirPods 4 debut around the world

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Apple iPhone 16, Apple Watch Series 10 and AirPods 4 debut around the world

Apple CEO Tim Cook: We're very excited about iPhone 16 demand

Apple on Friday greeted customers at its stores around the world for the debuts of the iPhone 16, Apple Watch Series 10 and AirPods 4.

The new products were announced at an event earlier this month and have been available for pre-order since Sept. 13. The company lit up the glass cube at its Fifth Avenue Apple Store in New York City, in a nod to the enhanced Siri, which will light up the borders of the new iPhone’s screen when that feature rolls out next month.

Apple’s fresh iPhones mark the company’s latest move into artificial intelligence, with new Apple Intelligence features that will begin to launch in October. The new features will allow customers to rewrite text, remove objects from photos and speak with an improved Siri. The software advancements will only be available on iPhone 16 and last year’s iPhone 15 Pro devices.

A view of Apple’s new iPhone 16 at an Apple Store on the Regent Street in London, United Kingdom on September 20, 2024. 

Rasid Necati Aslim | Anadolu | Getty Images

But Apple shares slid on Monday after analyst reports suggested that demand for the latest iPhones was lower than expected. TF Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said in a note on Monday that first-weekend sales were down about 12% year over year from the iPhone 15 last year. Barclays, JPMorgan and Bank of America also noted shipping times could translate to lighter demand for the more expensive iPhone Pro models compared with last year.

CNBC’s Steve Kovach spoke with CEO Tim Cook outside Apple’s Fifth Avenue store and asked whether sales looked better or worse than last year. “I don’t know yet. It’s only the first hour, so we’ll see,” Cook said.

On Friday, UBS analysts suggested investors shouldn’t overreact to what appears to be lighter sales because that data is also collected by analyzing the wait times for new iPhone models and that those were longer last year due in part to supply chain disruptions.

Apple Store Fifth Avenue in New York

Steve Kovach| CNBC

“Ahead of the iPhone 16 announcement, our analysis suggested that a lack of a killer app and arguably somewhat half-baked introduction of Apple Intelligence would dampen demand,” the UBS analysts wrote. “While we still argue the collection of iPhone/iOS attributes are more evolutionary than revolutionary, we caution that investors not overreact to data that suggests somewhat initial tepid demand.”

The UBS analysts said supply chain disruptions last year “slightly distorted/extended last year’s data,” which led to longer wait times for customers for Pro models. Last year, UBS wrote, customers had a 41-day wait time for some iPhone 15 Pro Max pre-orders compared with a 26-day wait time for the iPhone 16 Pro Max this year.

“Nevertheless, data across all models and regions roughly a week post launch support our view that a super-cycle is not imminent as US and China data on the margin is disappointing relative to last year,” they wrote.

Devices of the new Apple Watch Series 10 model are on display after the presentation at Apple headquarters. 

Andrej Sokolow | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

The Apple Watch Series 10 offers a larger screen than that of earlier models. It will support, along with the earlier Series 9, new Sleep Apnea detection, as well as other fresh features. The AirPods 4 offer a refresh with a smaller charging case and an option with noise cancellation.

CNBC reviewed the new iPhone 16 Pro Max and the Apple Watch Series 10 earlier in the week.

— CNBC’s Michael Bloom and Steve Kovach contributed to this report.

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