Accurate forecasts, finally? — As a potentially historic hurricane season looms, can AI forecast models help? New model that predicts global weather can run on a single desktop computer.
Eric Berger – Jun 3, 2024 11:00 am UTC Enlarge / AI weather models are arriving just in time for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.Aurich Lawson | Getty Images reader comments 0
Much like the invigorating passage of a strong cold front, major changes are afoot in the weather forecasting community. And the end game is nothing short of revolutionary: an entirely new way to forecast weather based on artificial intelligence that can run on a desktop computer.
Today’s artificial intelligence systems require one resource more than any other to operatedata. For example, large language models such as ChatGPT voraciously consume data to improve answers to queries. The more and higher quality data, the better their training, and the sharper the results.
However, there is a finite limit to quality data, even on the Internet. These large language models have hoovered up so much data that they’re being sued widely for copyright infringement. And as they’re running out of data, the operators of these AI models are turning to ideas such as synthetic data to keep feeding the beast and produce ever more capable results for users.
If data is king, what about other applications for AI technology similar to large language models? Are there untapped pools of data? One of the most promising that has emerged in the last 18 months is weather forecasting, and recent advances have sent shockwaves through the field of meteorology.
That’s because there’s a secret weapon: an extremely rich data set. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the premiere organization in the world for numerical weather prediction, maintains a set of data about atmospheric, land, and oceanic weather data for every day, at points around the world, every few hours, going back to 1940. The last 50 years of data, after the advent of global satellite coverage, is especially rich. This dataset is known as ERA5, and it is publicly available. Advertisement
It was not created to fuel AI applications, but ERA5 has turned out to be incredibly useful for this purpose. Computer scientists only really got serious about using this data to train AI models to forecast the weather in 2022. Since then, the technology has made rapid strides. In some cases, the output of these models is already superior to global weather models that scientists have labored decades to design and build, and they require some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world to run.
“It is clear that machine learning is a significant part of the future of weather forecasting,” said Matthew Chantry, who leads AI forecasting efforts at the European weather center known as ECMWF, in an interview with Ars. Its moving fast
John Dean and Kai Marshland met as undergraduates at Stanford University in the late 2010s. Dean, an electrical engineer, interned at SpaceX during the summer of 2017. Marshland, a computer scientist, interned at the launch company the next summer. Both graduated in 2019 and were trying to figure out what to do with their lives.
“We decided we wanted to solve the problem of weather uncertainty,” Marshland said, so they co-founded a company called WindBorne Systems.
The premise of the company was simple: For about 85 percent of the Earth and its atmosphere, we have no good data about weather conditions there. A lack of quality data, which establishes initial conditions, represents a major handicap for global weather forecast models. The company’s proposed solution was in its namewind borne.
Dean and Marshland set about designing small weather balloons they could release into the atmosphere and which would fly around the world for up to 40 days, relaying useful atmospheric data that could be packaged and sold to large, government-funded weather models.
Weather balloons provide invaluable data about atmospheric conditionsreadings such as temperature, dewpoints, and pressuresthat cannot be captured by surface observations or satellites. Such atmospheric “profiles” are helpful in setting the initial conditions models start with. The problem is that traditional weather balloons are cumbersome and only operate for a few hours. Because of this, the National Weather Service only launches them twice daily from about 100 locations in the United States. Page: 1 2 3 4 Next → reader comments 0 Eric Berger Eric Berger is the senior space editor at Ars Technica, covering everything from astronomy to private space to wonky NASA policy, and author of the book Liftoff, about the rise of SpaceX. A certified meteorologist, Eric lives in Houston. Advertisement Channel Ars Technica ← Previous story Related Stories Today on Ars
College football reporter; joined ESPN in 2008. Graduate of Northwestern University.
Wisconsin fired offensive coordinator Phil Longo on Sunday, a day after the Badgers’ 16-13 home loss to No. 1 Oregon.
In a statement, Badgers coach Luke Fickell thanked Longo for his two seasons with the program, while adding, “We are not where we need to be and believe this decision is in the best interest of the team.”
Wisconsin ranks 97th nationally in scoring and 102nd in passing while operating an Air Raid-style offense that Longo brought with him from North Carolina and other stops.
The Badgers, who lost starting quarterback Tyler Van Dyke to a season-ending injury Sept. 14, had only three points and 88 yards in the second half against Oregon, which rallied from a 13-6 deficit entering the fourth quarter.
Wisconsin ranked 101st nationally in scoring in Longo’s 23 games as coordinator and failed to eclipse 13 points on its current three-game losing streak. Quarterback Braedyn Locke had only 96 passing yards against the Ducks.
Fickell did not immediately announce an interim coordinator for Wisconsin’s final regular-season games against Nebraska and Minnesota.
Fickell had long targeted Longo for a coordinator role, going back to his time as Cincinnati’s coach. Longo, 56, oversaw productive offenses at Ole Miss, North Carolina, Sam Houston State and other spots but never consistently got traction at a Wisconsin program that had operated dramatically differently on offense before his arrival.
“This team still has a lot in front of us and I am committed to doing everything we can to close out this season with success,” Fickell said in his statement.
Eli Lederman covers college football and recruiting for ESPN.com. He joined ESPN in 2024 after covering the University of Oklahoma for Sellout Crowd and the Tulsa World.
Four-star quarterback Tramell Jones Jr. has committed to Florida, he told ESPN on Sunday, joining the Gators’ 2025 class four days after pulling his pledge from Florida State.
Jones, a four-year starter at Florida’s Mandarin High School, is ESPN’s No. 9 dual-threat passer in the Class of 2025. After multiple trips to Florida throughout his recruitment, Jones returned to campus Saturday, taking an official visit with the Gators during the program’s 27-16 win over LSU. A day later, Jones stands as the lone quarterback pledge in a 2025 Florida class that includes five pledges from the ESPN 300.
“I pretty much saw everything I needed to see when I visited last spring — I just love everything around the campus,” Jones told ESPN. “And then hanging out with the guys yesterday, seeing the camaraderie with each other, that really just sealed it for me.”
Jones was the longest-tenured member of Mike Norvell’s 2025 class at Florida State before his decommitment from the Seminoles on Thursday morning.
Jones’ exit came days after Norvell announced the firings of three assistant coaches on Nov. 10, including offensive coordinator and offensive line coach Alex Atkins. Jones was the first Florida State commit to pull his pledge in the wake of the staff shakeup but marked the Seminoles sixth decommitment since the start of the regular season, joining five ESPN 300 recruits who have left Norvell’s recruiting class across the program’s 1-9 start.
Jones’ commitment follows a key late-season victory for Billy Napier on Saturday and marks the Gators’ first recruiting win since athletic director Scott Strickland announced on Nov. 7 that Florida would stick with the third-year coach beyond the 2024 season.
Uncertainty over Napier’s future had weighed down Florida’s recruiting efforts in the 2025 class as the Gators began November with the No. 39 class in ESPN’s latest team rankings for the cycle. But Jones’ pledge comes as a boost for Florida one day after the Gators hosted a handful of high-profile flip targets, including five-star offensive tackle Solomon Thomas (Florida State pledge) and four-star wide receiver Jaime Ffrench (Texas pledge).
When Jones signs with Florida, he’ll arrive on campus flanked by fellow in-state offensive talents in four-star wide receivers Vernell Brown III (No. 44 in the ESPN 300) and Naeshaun Montgomery (No. 115), as well as four-star running back Waltez Clark (No. 223). Florida is also set to sign a pair of in-state defenders from the 2025 ESPN 300 between four-star defensive end Jalen Wiggins (No. 68) and four-star cornerback Ben Hanks Jr. (No. 121).
With Jones’ commitment, Florida has another jolt to its momentum on the recruiting trail as the Gators seek to chart a strong finish in the 2025 cycle next month. More imminently, Florida will host No. 11 Ole Miss on Saturday.
Greater Manchester Police makes ‘improvements’ in treatment of women including new rules on strip searches – but questions remain after Sky News investigation
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From July 2023: Are women safe in custody?
A report today by the Greater Manchester mayor’s office welcomes the introduction of new measures including additional training for police officers dealing with domestic violence victims.
However, many victims are unconvinced. One such is Sophie, not her real name, telling her story for the first time.
She tells Sky News that even after the Baird Inquiry found her arrest was “unlawful” and the chief inspector called her treatment “appalling”, the police complaints department subsequently described the arrest as “acceptable”.
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Sophie’s experience was investigated by Dame Vera alongside other women who Sky News spoke to last year.
She was arrested at 3am in the summer of 2022, and detained for 11 hours following a trivial complaint made by her ex-partner. Her accuser was designated by the police as a highly violent, domestic abuse perpetrator.
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Even so, Sophie was arrested at her home in the middle of the night after her abuser alleged she had broken his car wing mirror, 14 months previously, and that she had bruised his arms on an occasion when he had strangled her.
‘They knew what I was trying to protect myself from’
The man making the allegation was someone who had punched, strangled, pressed his thumbs into Sophie’s eyes and locked her up in the house.
Sophie told Sky News: “He’s got a history of domestic violence; he’s got a history of being incarcerated. They knew what I’d gone through, they knew what I was trying to protect myself from.
“I was in contact regularly with domestic violence support workers who were meeting with police liaison officers. They knew that I had the locks changed. They knew I had an alert on the house and my phone.”
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3:15
From August 2023: ‘I was gaslit, I was stonewalled,’ says Zayna Iman
Sophie describes the police arrest as “an extension of his coercion”. She later refused to accept a police caution and was charged with the offence of damaging a wing mirror before a judge threw the case out saying it was not in the public interest.
At a press conference in July this year, Dame Vera said: “I tell you ladies and gentlemen, if someone tried to strangle me, I’d probably bruise his arms as well.”
She said the arresting officers had “locked away their brains” and criticised the custody sergeant who had logged his justification for the arrest as “to protect a vulnerable person”, in reference to the violent man.
A series of ‘failures’
At that time, GMP Chief Constable Stephen Watson said he was “appalled” by Sophie’s treatment.
He told Sky News: “It’s a systemic failure, a leadership failure, a process failure. I do think in individual circumstances it may be a failure of experience.”
And yet, one month after this, the police complaints department wrote to tell Sophie “there were sufficient grounds for your arrest”. The letter told her: “The service provided by the police was acceptable.”
Only after Sophie revealed that her case was part of the Baird Inquiry did the police retract these findings.
In a statement, GMP told Sky News: “The outcome Sophie was provided was incorrect. Having reviewed the handling of the complaint, our head of professional standards gave Sophie a personal apology and we are ensuring there is a full reinvestigation.
“Complaints relating to the Baird review – including Sophie’s – are subject to a fair and thorough examination, without fear or favour, by our Professional Standards Directorate.
“Where an investigation finds there to be a case to answer, we will ensure officers face disciplinary proceedings.
‘1,500 more domestic abuse survivors now getting justice’
“We are working hard to ensure that the people of Greater Manchester – particularly women and girls – can have confidence in their police force. This includes providing trauma-informed training for officers and getting better outcomes for victims – with 1,500 more domestic abuse survivors now getting justice compared to three years ago.
“Our communities can have confidence that the force is robust in maintaining good order and discipline. Those not fit to serve are being removed from GMP with more than 100 officers dismissed on the Chief Constable’s watch.”
However, Sky News has been told that most complaints relating to the Baird Inquiry are subject to ongoing investigation and, so far, no officers have been disciplined or dismissed.
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From July: Mark Dove says he was ‘left naked in cell for hours’
In response to the Baird Inquiry, GMP now has a dedicated female welfare officer in its custody suites and is soon to introduce a new independent oversight panel to scrutinise arrests.
According to the mayor’s office, 24 of the 26 recommendations from the inquiry have been implemented.
Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham said:“This is a landmark moment in our quest to improve the safety and treatment of women across Greater Manchester.
“It is clear that there is still progress to be made. The deputy mayor and I will continue to hold up a mirror to unacceptable practices wherever we find them.”
Deputy mayor Kate Green added: “While the implementation of these recommendations to date is welcome, it is essential that the improvements brought about are maintained and indeed built upon, and on behalf of the mayor I will continue to scrutinise GMP as it makes progress in these areas.”
However, Sophie feels let down and says if she was in an abusive relationship again, she would think twice about going to the police.
“I wouldn’t just be OK with reporting something now, I would look at the consequences of me doing that, and what could happen as a result of me doing that, and how they would treat me,” she said.
“It’s going to take me longer to get over what happened to me that night in being arrested and being locked up than getting over being slapped or punched.”
Former victims’ commissioner Dame Vera Baird and Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham will be speaking to Wilfred Frost on Sky News Breakfast from 7.30am this morning.