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Accurate forecasts, finally? — As a potentially historic hurricane season looms, can AI forecast models help? New model that predicts global weather can run on a single desktop computer.

Eric Berger – Jun 3, 2024 11:00 am UTC Enlarge / AI weather models are arriving just in time for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.Aurich Lawson | Getty Images reader comments 0

Much like the invigorating passage of a strong cold front, major changes are afoot in the weather forecasting community. And the end game is nothing short of revolutionary: an entirely new way to forecast weather based on artificial intelligence that can run on a desktop computer.

Today’s artificial intelligence systems require one resource more than any other to operatedata. For example, large language models such as ChatGPT voraciously consume data to improve answers to queries. The more and higher quality data, the better their training, and the sharper the results.

However, there is a finite limit to quality data, even on the Internet. These large language models have hoovered up so much data that they’re being sued widely for copyright infringement. And as they’re running out of data, the operators of these AI models are turning to ideas such as synthetic data to keep feeding the beast and produce ever more capable results for users.

If data is king, what about other applications for AI technology similar to large language models? Are there untapped pools of data? One of the most promising that has emerged in the last 18 months is weather forecasting, and recent advances have sent shockwaves through the field of meteorology.

That’s because there’s a secret weapon: an extremely rich data set. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the premiere organization in the world for numerical weather prediction, maintains a set of data about atmospheric, land, and oceanic weather data for every day, at points around the world, every few hours, going back to 1940. The last 50 years of data, after the advent of global satellite coverage, is especially rich. This dataset is known as ERA5, and it is publicly available. Advertisement

It was not created to fuel AI applications, but ERA5 has turned out to be incredibly useful for this purpose. Computer scientists only really got serious about using this data to train AI models to forecast the weather in 2022. Since then, the technology has made rapid strides. In some cases, the output of these models is already superior to global weather models that scientists have labored decades to design and build, and they require some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world to run.

“It is clear that machine learning is a significant part of the future of weather forecasting,” said Matthew Chantry, who leads AI forecasting efforts at the European weather center known as ECMWF, in an interview with Ars. Its moving fast

John Dean and Kai Marshland met as undergraduates at Stanford University in the late 2010s. Dean, an electrical engineer, interned at SpaceX during the summer of 2017. Marshland, a computer scientist, interned at the launch company the next summer. Both graduated in 2019 and were trying to figure out what to do with their lives.

“We decided we wanted to solve the problem of weather uncertainty,” Marshland said, so they co-founded a company called WindBorne Systems.

The premise of the company was simple: For about 85 percent of the Earth and its atmosphere, we have no good data about weather conditions there. A lack of quality data, which establishes initial conditions, represents a major handicap for global weather forecast models. The company’s proposed solution was in its namewind borne.

Dean and Marshland set about designing small weather balloons they could release into the atmosphere and which would fly around the world for up to 40 days, relaying useful atmospheric data that could be packaged and sold to large, government-funded weather models.

Weather balloons provide invaluable data about atmospheric conditionsreadings such as temperature, dewpoints, and pressuresthat cannot be captured by surface observations or satellites. Such atmospheric “profiles” are helpful in setting the initial conditions models start with. The problem is that traditional weather balloons are cumbersome and only operate for a few hours. Because of this, the National Weather Service only launches them twice daily from about 100 locations in the United States. Page: 1 2 3 4 Next → reader comments 0 Eric Berger Eric Berger is the senior space editor at Ars Technica, covering everything from astronomy to private space to wonky NASA policy, and author of the book Liftoff, about the rise of SpaceX. A certified meteorologist, Eric lives in Houston. Advertisement Channel Ars Technica ← Previous story Related Stories Today on Ars

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Epstein files appear to show Andrew asking Ghislaine Maxwell for ‘inappropriate friends’

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Epstein files appear to show Andrew asking Ghislaine Maxwell for 'inappropriate friends'

A trove of newly released Epstein files include emails that appear to involve Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, while another suggests Donald Trump travelled on the billionaire’s private jet “many more times than previously has been reported”.

The US Department of Justice released at least 11,000 more files on Tuesday.

It went on to claim that some of them “contain untrue and sensationalist claims” about President Trump.

Here are some of the latest news lines from this release of Epstein files. Being named in these papers does not suggest wrongdoing.

Who is ‘The Invisible Man’?

Among the documents released is an email sent to Ghislaine Maxwell that speaks about “the girls” being “completely shattered” at a Royal Family summer camp at Balmoral.

It is dated 16 August 2001 and sent by a person referred to as “The Invisible Man”, who signed off the message as “A” – and is believed to be Andrew.

Sky News has come to that conclusion from reviewing the email address used, which is assigned to the Duke of York in Epstein’s contacts book and the chain of correspondence.


Who is ‘A’? James Matthews looks at the evidence

In the correspondence, “The Invisible Man” asks Maxwell: “How’s LA? Have you found me some new inappropriate friends?”

Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor has previously denied any allegations against him.


Andrew pictured laying on women

The Peru trip

Another email appears to show Maxwell arranging “two-legged sight seeing” for “The Invisible Man” during a trip to Peru.

She appears to forward to “The Invisible Man” part of a conversation between herself and another person.

The email says: “I just gave Andrew your telephone no. He is interested in seeing the Nazca lines. He can ride but it is not his favorite sport ie pass on the horses.”

“Some sight seeing some 2 legged sight seeing (read intelligent pretty fun and from good families) and he will be very happy. I know I can rely on you to show him a wonderful time and will only introduce him to friends that you can trust,” Maxwell said.

The context of the email is unclear and there is no suggestion of any wrongdoing.


Epstein survivor speaks to Sky News after latest release of files

Trump on Epstein’s jet?

The latest bunch of files also includes an email from an unidentified prosecutor dated 7 January, 2020, in which President Trump is mentioned.

The email accuses him of travelling on Epstein’s private jet “many more times than previously has been reported”.

It adds that President Trump “is listed as a passenger on at least eight flights between 1993 and 1996, including at least four flights on which Maxwell was also present”.

The email’s sender and receiver have been redacted. However, at the bottom of the email it says assistant US attorney, Southern District of New York. The name has also been redacted.

President Trump has denied any wrongdoing in relation to his relationship with Epstein, and being on any of Epstein’s flights does not indicate any wrongdoing.

Read more:
Trump defends ‘big boy’ Clinton after Epstein files release
Why Andrew photo in Epstein files is awkward for Royal Family

Limousine driver report about Trump

One of the documents in the release shows a report made to the FBI that was recorded on 27 October 2020.

It includes an unverified claim by a limousine driver that he overheard the US president discussing “abusing some girl” in 1995.

The driver also mentions Trump said “Jeffrey” while on the phone during a journey to Dallas Fort Worth Airport in Texas.

A significant part of the statement, along with the driver’s identity, has been redacted.

The US justice department has said that some of the documents in the latest Epstein files release “contain untrue and sensationalist claims made against President Trump that were submitted to the FBI right before the 2020 election”.

“To be clear: the claims are unfounded and false, and if they had a shred of credibility, they certainly would have been weaponized against President Trump already,” it said.

Postcard mentions ‘our president’

Also among the documents is a postcard that claims to have been sent by Jeffrey Epstein, but has been refuted by the justice department.

In it, the sender tells the recipient: “Our president also shares our love of young, nubile girls.”

It’s not clear who “our president” refers to and the context of the postcard is also unclear.

The US justice department initially said it was “looking into the validity” of the postcard but later said on X that the “FBI has confirmed” the postcard is “FAKE”.

It cited reasons including a claim that the writing does not appear to match Epstein’s and another that the letter was postmarked three days after his death.

Row over unreleased documents

It is believed that many files relating to Epstein are yet to be made public.

There has been anger at the justice department’s slow release of the files, with politicians threatening to launch legal action against Attorney General Pam Bondi.

The deadline for the release of all the documents has passed.

“The DOJ needs to quit ⁠protecting the rich, powerful, and politically connected,” Republican congressman Thomas Massie said.

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Epstein survivor speaks of moment she met Andrew on private island

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Epstein survivor speaks of moment she met Andrew on private island

A survivor of Jeffrey Epstein has spoken of the moment she met Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor on the disgraced financier’s private island.

Lisa Phillips says that revealing the true extent of Epstein’s abuses is important for the protection of future generations.

Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor has previously denied any allegations against him.

Speaking to US correspondent James Matthews on the day a new tranche of documents was released, she said she believes the “really important stuff” wasn’t released.


What’s in the largest batch of Epstein files?

She recalled meeting Epstein in 2000 when she was working as a fashion model.

Ms Phillips said she was working on an island near Saint Thomas in the Caribbean and went over to Epstein’s island for a day, and met Epstein himself at dinner that evening.

More on Jeffrey Epstein

“It took a few hours of him speaking to me one-on-one at the table, basically asking me a lot of questions about my life and my relationship with my family and my ambitions.”

She said Epstein was “very big” on her goals and became excited when he heard she had lived in Oxford, England, as a child.

“He asked me if I wanted to meet a prince, and I said yes.”

Epstein files latest: New batch of documents released

Ms Phillips explained that a man walked up and was introduced to her, and that he spoke to some people there and then said goodbye.

“It was very brief,” she said, adding that only years later did she realise that this was the former prince, Andrew.

She was asked about an email in the recently released files that appears to show Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor asking Ghislaine Maxwell about “inappropriate friends”.

“That is a very revealing email, isn’t it?” Ms Phillips said. “It’s very creepy, disturbing, and I mean, that’s why she’s in jail, right?”

The context of the email is unclear, and there is no suggestion of any wrongdoing.

Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor has previously denied any allegations against him and Sky News has contacted Andrew’s representatives for comment on the latest release.

Asked about the impact being in Epstein’s orbit has had on her life, Ms Phillips said: “It hasn’t felt good to know that so much of my past that I worked hard for was really just smoke and mirrors and part of a bigger web.”

On the delays in releasing the files, she claimed “the really important stuff wasn’t released”.

She also spoke about her and other survivors’ ongoing fight for justice.

“We’re still doing our research, and we will still be bringing whatever we find to the proper authorities. And we’re not going to give up.”

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UK

Epstein files appear to show Andrew asking Ghislaine Maxwell for ‘inappropriate friends’

Published

on

By

Epstein files appear to show Andrew asking Ghislaine Maxwell for 'inappropriate friends'

A trove of newly released Epstein files include emails that appear to involve Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, while another suggests Donald Trump travelled on the billionaire’s private jet “many more times than previously has been reported”.

The US Department of Justice released at least 11,000 more files on Tuesday.

It went on to claim that some of them “contain untrue and sensationalist claims” about President Trump.

Here are some of the latest news lines from this release of Epstein files. Being named in these papers does not suggest wrongdoing.

Who is ‘The Invisible Man’?

Among the documents released is an email sent to Ghislaine Maxwell that speaks about “the girls” being “completely shattered” at a Royal Family summer camp at Balmoral.

It is dated 16 August 2001 and sent by a person referred to as “The Invisible Man”, who signed off the message as “A” – and is believed to be Andrew.

Sky News has come to that conclusion from reviewing the email address used, which is assigned to the Duke of York in Epstein’s contacts book and the chain of correspondence.


Who is ‘A’? James Matthews looks at the evidence

In the correspondence, “The Invisible Man” asks Maxwell: “How’s LA? Have you found me some new inappropriate friends?”

Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor has previously denied any allegations against him.


Andrew pictured laying on women

The Peru trip

Another email appears to show Maxwell arranging “two-legged sight seeing” for “The Invisible Man” during a trip to Peru.

She appears to forward to “The Invisible Man” part of a conversation between herself and another person.

The email says: “I just gave Andrew your telephone no. He is interested in seeing the Nazca lines. He can ride but it is not his favorite sport ie pass on the horses.”

“Some sight seeing some 2 legged sight seeing (read intelligent pretty fun and from good families) and he will be very happy. I know I can rely on you to show him a wonderful time and will only introduce him to friends that you can trust,” Maxwell said.

The context of the email is unclear and there is no suggestion of any wrongdoing.


Epstein survivor speaks to Sky News after latest release of files

Trump on Epstein’s jet?

The latest bunch of files also includes an email from an unidentified prosecutor dated 7 January, 2020, in which President Trump is mentioned.

The email accuses him of travelling on Epstein’s private jet “many more times than previously has been reported”.

It adds that President Trump “is listed as a passenger on at least eight flights between 1993 and 1996, including at least four flights on which Maxwell was also present”.

The email’s sender and receiver have been redacted. However, at the bottom of the email it says assistant US attorney, Southern District of New York. The name has also been redacted.

President Trump has denied any wrongdoing in relation to his relationship with Epstein, and being on any of Epstein’s flights does not indicate any wrongdoing.

Read more:
Trump defends ‘big boy’ Clinton after Epstein files release
Why Andrew photo in Epstein files is awkward for Royal Family

Limousine driver report about Trump

One of the documents in the release shows a report made to the FBI that was recorded on 27 October 2020.

It includes an unverified claim by a limousine driver that he overheard the US president discussing “abusing some girl” in 1995.

The driver also mentions Trump said “Jeffrey” while on the phone during a journey to Dallas Fort Worth Airport in Texas.

A significant part of the statement, along with the driver’s identity, has been redacted.

The US justice department has said that some of the documents in the latest Epstein files release “contain untrue and sensationalist claims made against President Trump that were submitted to the FBI right before the 2020 election”.

“To be clear: the claims are unfounded and false, and if they had a shred of credibility, they certainly would have been weaponized against President Trump already,” it said.

Postcard mentions ‘our president’

Also among the documents is a postcard that claims to have been sent by Jeffrey Epstein, but has been refuted by the justice department.

In it, the sender tells the recipient: “Our president also shares our love of young, nubile girls.”

It’s not clear who “our president” refers to and the context of the postcard is also unclear.

The US justice department initially said it was “looking into the validity” of the postcard but later said on X that the “FBI has confirmed” the postcard is “FAKE”.

It cited reasons including a claim that the writing does not appear to match Epstein’s and another that the letter was postmarked three days after his death.

Row over unreleased documents

It is believed that many files relating to Epstein are yet to be made public.

There has been anger at the justice department’s slow release of the files, with politicians threatening to launch legal action against Attorney General Pam Bondi.

The deadline for the release of all the documents has passed.

“The DOJ needs to quit ⁠protecting the rich, powerful, and politically connected,” Republican congressman Thomas Massie said.

Continue Reading

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