As a potentially historic hurricane season looms, can AI forecast models help?

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4 months ago

June 3, 2024

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Accurate forecasts, finally? — As a potentially historic hurricane season looms, can AI forecast models help? New model that predicts global weather can run on a single desktop computer.

Eric Berger – Jun 3, 2024 11:00 am UTC Enlarge / AI weather models are arriving just in time for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.Aurich Lawson | Getty Images reader comments 0

Much like the invigorating passage of a strong cold front, major changes are afoot in the weather forecasting community. And the end game is nothing short of revolutionary: an entirely new way to forecast weather based on artificial intelligence that can run on a desktop computer.

Today’s artificial intelligence systems require one resource more than any other to operatedata. For example, large language models such as ChatGPT voraciously consume data to improve answers to queries. The more and higher quality data, the better their training, and the sharper the results.

However, there is a finite limit to quality data, even on the Internet. These large language models have hoovered up so much data that they’re being sued widely for copyright infringement. And as they’re running out of data, the operators of these AI models are turning to ideas such as synthetic data to keep feeding the beast and produce ever more capable results for users.

If data is king, what about other applications for AI technology similar to large language models? Are there untapped pools of data? One of the most promising that has emerged in the last 18 months is weather forecasting, and recent advances have sent shockwaves through the field of meteorology.

That’s because there’s a secret weapon: an extremely rich data set. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the premiere organization in the world for numerical weather prediction, maintains a set of data about atmospheric, land, and oceanic weather data for every day, at points around the world, every few hours, going back to 1940. The last 50 years of data, after the advent of global satellite coverage, is especially rich. This dataset is known as ERA5, and it is publicly available. Advertisement

It was not created to fuel AI applications, but ERA5 has turned out to be incredibly useful for this purpose. Computer scientists only really got serious about using this data to train AI models to forecast the weather in 2022. Since then, the technology has made rapid strides. In some cases, the output of these models is already superior to global weather models that scientists have labored decades to design and build, and they require some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world to run.

“It is clear that machine learning is a significant part of the future of weather forecasting,” said Matthew Chantry, who leads AI forecasting efforts at the European weather center known as ECMWF, in an interview with Ars. Its moving fast

John Dean and Kai Marshland met as undergraduates at Stanford University in the late 2010s. Dean, an electrical engineer, interned at SpaceX during the summer of 2017. Marshland, a computer scientist, interned at the launch company the next summer. Both graduated in 2019 and were trying to figure out what to do with their lives.

“We decided we wanted to solve the problem of weather uncertainty,” Marshland said, so they co-founded a company called WindBorne Systems.

The premise of the company was simple: For about 85 percent of the Earth and its atmosphere, we have no good data about weather conditions there. A lack of quality data, which establishes initial conditions, represents a major handicap for global weather forecast models. The company’s proposed solution was in its namewind borne.

Dean and Marshland set about designing small weather balloons they could release into the atmosphere and which would fly around the world for up to 40 days, relaying useful atmospheric data that could be packaged and sold to large, government-funded weather models.

Weather balloons provide invaluable data about atmospheric conditionsreadings such as temperature, dewpoints, and pressuresthat cannot be captured by surface observations or satellites. Such atmospheric “profiles” are helpful in setting the initial conditions models start with. The problem is that traditional weather balloons are cumbersome and only operate for a few hours. Because of this, the National Weather Service only launches them twice daily from about 100 locations in the United States. Page: 1 2 3 4 Next → reader comments 0 Eric Berger Eric Berger is the senior space editor at Ars Technica, covering everything from astronomy to private space to wonky NASA policy, and author of the book Liftoff, about the rise of SpaceX. A certified meteorologist, Eric lives in Houston. Advertisement Channel Ars Technica ← Previous story Related Stories Today on Ars

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Canterbury MP Rosie Duffield quits Labour – criticising Sir Keir Starmer in resignation letter

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1 hour ago

September 28, 2024

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Canterbury MP Rosie Duffield quits Labour - criticising Sir Keir Starmer in resignation letter

Canterbury MP Rosie Duffield has resigned from the Labour Party.

The 53-year-old MP is the first to jump ship since the general election and in her resignation letter criticised the prime minister for accepting thousands of pounds worth of gifts.

She told Sir Keir Starmer the reason for leaving now is “the programme of policies you seem determined to stick to”, despite their unpopularity with the electorate and MPs.

In her letter she accused the prime minister and his top team of “sleaze, nepotism and apparent avarice” which are “off the scale”.

“I’m so ashamed of what you and your inner circle have done to tarnish and humiliate our once proud party,” she said.

Sir Keir has faced backlash after a Sky News report revealed he had received substantially more freebies than any other MP since becoming Labour leader.

Since December 2019, the prime minister received £107,145 in gifts, benefits, and hospitality – a specific category in parliament’s register of MPs’ interests.

Ms Duffield, who has previously clashed with the prime minister on gender issues, attacked the government for pursuing “cruel and unnecessary” policies as she resigned the Labour whip.

She criticised the decision to keep the two-child benefit cap and means-test the winter fuel payment, and accused the prime minister of “hypocrisy” over his acceptance of free gifts from donors.

“Since the change of government in July, the revelations of hypocrisy have been staggering and increasingly outrageous,” she said.

“I cannot put into words how angry I and my colleagues are at your total lack of understanding about how you have made us all appear.”

Ms Duffield also mentioned the recent “treatment of Diane Abbott”, who said she thought she had been barred from standing by Labour ahead of the general election, before Sir Keir said she would be allowed to defend her Hackney North and Stoke Newington seat for the party.

Her relationship with the Labour leadership has long been strained and her decision to quit the party comes after seven other Labour MPs were suspended for rebelling by voting for a motion calling for the two-child benefit cap to be abolished.

“Someone with far-above-average wealth choosing to keep the Conservatives’ two-child limit to benefit payments which entrenches children in poverty, while inexplicably accepting expensive personal gifts of designer suits and glasses costing more than most of those people can grasp – this is entirely undeserving of holding the title of Labour prime minister,” she said.

Ms Duffield said she will continue to represent her constituents as an independent MP, “guided by my core Labour values”.

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King Charles hails ‘uniquely special’ Scotland as it marks Holyrood milestone – before being hugged by woman

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1 hour ago

September 28, 2024

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King Charles hails 'uniquely special' Scotland as it marks Holyrood milestone - before being hugged by woman

The King has paid tribute to Scotland as a “uniquely special place” for the Royal Family as he marked the 25th anniversary of the Scottish parliament.

At the ceremony to commemorate a quarter of a century since parliament opened at Holyrood, the King said: “Speaking from a personal perspective, Scotland has always had a uniquely special place in the hearts of my family and myself.

“My beloved grandmother was proudly Scottish, my late mother especially treasured the time spent at Balmoral, and it was there in the most beloved of places, where she chose to spend her final days.”

He said we are all “united by our love of Scotland”, paying tribute to its “natural beauty”, “strength of character”, “diversity of its people”, “passions and frequently deeply held beliefs”.

“From the central belt to the north Highlands, across the islands in Ayrshire, in the Borders, the cities, towns and villages, all the coastal communities, who I wonder, could not fail to be moved by this complex Caledonian kaleidoscope?,” he asked as presiding officer Alison Johnstone and the Queen sat beside him.

After he gave the speech, the King was hugged by a member of the public – who said she did so “because of him being unwell”.

The 75-year-old was diagnosed with cancer in February but has since returned to public duties.

Yvonne Macmillan, 59, from East Renfrewshire, attended the anniversary ceremony with her husband Russell who is registered blind and chosen as a “local hero” for work in their area.

“I asked him if he was feeling better and if I could give him a hug. I actually said to him: ‘Can I hug you?’,” she said.

“As I hugged him I said, ‘God bless you’, so it was like God giving him a hug.”

While Sir Tony Blair’s Labour government legislated for Scottish devolution in 1997 – parliament officially opened at Holyrood on 1 July 1999.

The King has made six visits to the parliament since 1999 – while his mother Queen Elizabeth II made 10 visits during her lifetime.

Scottish First Minister John Swinney is one of a number of MSPs who have been at Holyrood since the start of devolution.

He said in his own speech in Edinburgh on Saturday that the parliament has “placed itself at the very heart of the nation”, describing it as a “vessel of enlightenment, invention and creativity”.

The SNP’s Christine Grahame is another MSP who has been there since the start.

“Free tuition, free prescriptions, game-changing policies to tackle child poverty, the ban on smoking, the baby box, ScotRail back in public ownership – none of this would have been possible without the Scottish parliament and the strength of our commitment to self-determination,” she said on Saturday.

The King said the devolved parliament has the ability to “touch and to improve the lives of so many individuals”.

But he added that “there remains much more to be done” for Scotland, the rest of the UK, particularly with regards to climate change.

“Let this moment therefore be the beginning of the next chapter,” he told those assembled.

“The achievement of the past and the commitment shown in the present give us the soundest basis for confidence in the future.”

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Phone thief caught red-handed hours after snatching device from woman’s hand in Croydon

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1 hour ago

September 28, 2024

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Phone thief caught red-handed hours after snatching device from woman's hand in Croydon

A moped riding phone thief was caught red-handed after police tracked the device down hours after he snatched it from a woman’s hand.

CCTV footage released by police showed a masked moped rider mount the pavement in Croydon, south London, to swipe a phone from a woman’s hand on 6 March, while another victim had theirs stolen while they waited for a bus an hour later.

Amari Scott, 20, looked surprised when confronted by officers inside a shop, where he was found with two mobile phones.

“We’ve just had a moped rob a mobile phone off the pavement and the phone is pinging in this location,” one of the officers told him in body-worn camera footage before Scott was handcuffed and led away.

Police also recovered a stolen motorbike and Scott, from Sutton, south London, was later jailed for four years.

Two teenagers who committed four robberies in the space of just half an hour were also arrested as part of a crackdown in Croydon.

Aged 16 and 17, the teens were issued with referral orders after pleading guilty to charges of robbery, attempted robbery and attempted grievous bodily harm.

They were behind a spree of eight robberies across Croydon and nearby Bromley, including four within 30 minutes on the morning of 5 August.

Their crimes, which included the knife point robbery of a rough sleeper outside Croydon library, were caught on CCTV.

One of the teenagers tried to discard a knife before she was arrested after a foot chase, telling officers: “The knife wasn’t mine”.

The other ran away, leaving a knife and his bag, but was lying in bed at home when he was arrested shortly after.

The Metropolitan Police said officers are intensifying efforts to tackle robbery and theft, encouraging victims to report incidents as they happen to increase the chances of catching the criminals.

Chief Inspector James Weston said: “We understand the impact that robbery has on victims – it is invasive and frightening.

“That’s why our teams are working so hard to deter and catch offenders to reassure our local community.

“Thanks to the hard work of officers, our partners and community grassroots organisations, we are stepping up our efforts and tackling the issues that matter most to the people of Croydon.”