Accurate forecasts, finally? — As a potentially historic hurricane season looms, can AI forecast models help? New model that predicts global weather can run on a single desktop computer.
Eric Berger – Jun 3, 2024 11:00 am UTC Enlarge / AI weather models are arriving just in time for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.Aurich Lawson | Getty Images reader comments 0
Much like the invigorating passage of a strong cold front, major changes are afoot in the weather forecasting community. And the end game is nothing short of revolutionary: an entirely new way to forecast weather based on artificial intelligence that can run on a desktop computer.
Today’s artificial intelligence systems require one resource more than any other to operatedata. For example, large language models such as ChatGPT voraciously consume data to improve answers to queries. The more and higher quality data, the better their training, and the sharper the results.
However, there is a finite limit to quality data, even on the Internet. These large language models have hoovered up so much data that they’re being sued widely for copyright infringement. And as they’re running out of data, the operators of these AI models are turning to ideas such as synthetic data to keep feeding the beast and produce ever more capable results for users.
If data is king, what about other applications for AI technology similar to large language models? Are there untapped pools of data? One of the most promising that has emerged in the last 18 months is weather forecasting, and recent advances have sent shockwaves through the field of meteorology.
That’s because there’s a secret weapon: an extremely rich data set. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the premiere organization in the world for numerical weather prediction, maintains a set of data about atmospheric, land, and oceanic weather data for every day, at points around the world, every few hours, going back to 1940. The last 50 years of data, after the advent of global satellite coverage, is especially rich. This dataset is known as ERA5, and it is publicly available. Advertisement
It was not created to fuel AI applications, but ERA5 has turned out to be incredibly useful for this purpose. Computer scientists only really got serious about using this data to train AI models to forecast the weather in 2022. Since then, the technology has made rapid strides. In some cases, the output of these models is already superior to global weather models that scientists have labored decades to design and build, and they require some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world to run.
“It is clear that machine learning is a significant part of the future of weather forecasting,” said Matthew Chantry, who leads AI forecasting efforts at the European weather center known as ECMWF, in an interview with Ars. Its moving fast
John Dean and Kai Marshland met as undergraduates at Stanford University in the late 2010s. Dean, an electrical engineer, interned at SpaceX during the summer of 2017. Marshland, a computer scientist, interned at the launch company the next summer. Both graduated in 2019 and were trying to figure out what to do with their lives.
“We decided we wanted to solve the problem of weather uncertainty,” Marshland said, so they co-founded a company called WindBorne Systems.
The premise of the company was simple: For about 85 percent of the Earth and its atmosphere, we have no good data about weather conditions there. A lack of quality data, which establishes initial conditions, represents a major handicap for global weather forecast models. The company’s proposed solution was in its namewind borne.
Dean and Marshland set about designing small weather balloons they could release into the atmosphere and which would fly around the world for up to 40 days, relaying useful atmospheric data that could be packaged and sold to large, government-funded weather models.
Weather balloons provide invaluable data about atmospheric conditionsreadings such as temperature, dewpoints, and pressuresthat cannot be captured by surface observations or satellites. Such atmospheric “profiles” are helpful in setting the initial conditions models start with. The problem is that traditional weather balloons are cumbersome and only operate for a few hours. Because of this, the National Weather Service only launches them twice daily from about 100 locations in the United States. Page: 1 2 3 4 Next → reader comments 0 Eric Berger Eric Berger is the senior space editor at Ars Technica, covering everything from astronomy to private space to wonky NASA policy, and author of the book Liftoff, about the rise of SpaceX. A certified meteorologist, Eric lives in Houston. Advertisement Channel Ars Technica ← Previous story Related Stories Today on Ars
Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy to the Middle East, has claimed the UK played a “vital role” in helping negotiate the Gaza peace deal, smoothing over a potential diplomatic row between London and Washington.
Witkoff took to X on Monday, ahead of meeting President Donald Trump in Israel, to praise the UK.
“I would like to acknowledge the vital role of the United Kingdom in assisting and coordinating efforts that have led us to this historic day in Israel,” Witkoff wrote.
“In particular, I want to recognise the incredible input and tireless efforts of National Security Advisor Jonathan Powell.”
His comments came 24 hours after education secretary Bridget Phillipson was branded “delusional” by Mike Huckabee, the US ambassador to Israel, for claiming that Sir Keir Starmer’s presence at a signing ceremony for today’s ceasefire deal in Egypt “demonstrates the key role that we [Britain] have played”.
Phillipson added: “We have played a key role behind the scenes in shaping this.
“It’s right that we do so because it’s in all of our interest, including our own national interest, that we move to a lasting peace in the region.
“These are complex matters of diplomacy that we are involved in. But we do welcome and recognise the critical role that the American government played in moving us to this point.”
Her comments prompted Mr Huckabee to repost the Sky News clip on social media, claiming: “I assure you she’s delusional.”
He added: “She can thank Donald Trump anytime just to set the record straight.”
X
This content is provided by X, which may be using cookies and other technologies.
To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies.
You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enable X cookies or to allow those cookies just once.
You can change your settings at any time via the Privacy Options.
Unfortunately we have been unable to verify if you have consented to X cookies.
To view this content you can use the button below to allow X cookies for this session only.
Mr Huckabee was part of the negotiating team for the peace deal, with Mr Trump calling the former Arkansas governor “AMAZING” as he said he “worked so hard, and did so much, to bring about peace in the Middle East”.
In August, Mr Huckabee said the UK and other European nations that said they would declare a Palestinian state were “having the counterproductive effect that they probably think that they want”.
X
This content is provided by X, which may be using cookies and other technologies.
To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies.
You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enable X cookies or to allow those cookies just once.
You can change your settings at any time via the Privacy Options.
Unfortunately we have been unable to verify if you have consented to X cookies.
To view this content you can use the button below to allow X cookies for this session only.
Israel’s deputy foreign affairs minister, Sharren Haskell backed Huckabee, telling Sky News the UK played “the opposite” of a key role in the peace deal after recognising the Palestinian state.
“The message that the UK government has sent Hamas was the message that: the longer they continue this war, they will be rewarded.
“I mean, you must understand that when a terrorist organisation is thanking you. You are on the wrong side of history.”
It is understood the prime minister has underlined Mr Trump’s key role in securing this deal throughout the process. Publicly, he praised Mr Trump twice in his press conference in India on Thursday.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
2:59
Final preparations for hostages in Israeli hospital
Ms Phillipson stood by the September decision to declare a Palestinian state, saying it was “the right thing to do”.
Husam Zomlot, the Palestinian ambassador to the UK, told Sky News it was a “moment of leadership” for the UK to declare a Palestinian state, and a “responsibility to begin to correct a century of the gravest historic injustices committed against our people”.
He added: “That moment three weeks ago, when the UK did recognise, is a moment when we can say that the wheels of history are turning in a different direction.”
No plans for British troops on the ground
The education secretary also told Sky News the government has “no plans” to put British troops into Israel or Gaza as part of a stabilisation force after the ceasefire.
The US military will help establish a multinational force in Israel, known as a civil-military coordination centre, which is likely to include troops from Egypt, Qatar, Turkey and the UAE.
Image: Tens of thousands of Palestinians have walked back to Khan Younis in southern Gaza. Pic: AP
On Friday, US officials said up to 200 US troops already based in the Middle East will be moved to Israel to help monitor the ceasefire in Gaza.
The day before, President Trump announced Israel and Hamas had “signed off on the first phase” of a peace plan he unveiled last week.
Image: Pic: Reuters
Aid trucks have been gathering in Egypt to cross into Gaza after months of warnings by aid groups of famine in parts of the territory.
In Israel, the remaining hostages are due to be returned from Gaza by Hamas on Monday under the first phase of the peace plan. Twenty are believed to still be alive, 26 have been declared dead, while the fate of two is unknown.
The ceasefire agreement has been made two years after Hamas stormed Israel on 7 October 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages.
Israel’s military offensive has killed more than 67,000 Palestinians in Gaza, according to the Hamas-run health ministry, which the UN deems reliable.
For two years, they have gathered in Hostages Square – parents, brothers, sisters, extended family and friends clutching photographs and signs reading “bring them home”.
They have campaigned, protested and prayed for the return of loved ones taken in the 7 October attacks.
But now the mood has shifted.
The chants of frustration have turned into songs of celebration.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
2:12
Sky’s Alex Rossi reports from Hostages Square in Tel Aviv, where thousands gathered to witness the return of all living Israeli captives.
The tears that once fell in despair are now tears of relief.
The square, normally a site of weekly demonstrations, has transformed into a sea of flags.
Image: Crowds gather in Hostages Square in Tel Aviv. Pic: AP
We watched as tens of thousands packed into this area of Tel Aviv to witness a moment many feared might never come – the homecoming of the remaining hostages.
Every few minutes, the massive video screens behind the stage beamed new images – exhausted but smiling hostages embracing their families.
Each clip is met with a roar of applause – the atmosphere is one of sheer elation, it is electric.
When helicopters pass overhead, ferrying freed captives to nearby hospitals, the crowd erupts again and again, looking upwards to the sky in awe at the impossible that’s now been made possible.
Image: Pic: Reuters
The sense of catharsis here is palpable – at last some closure after a nightmare two years and a chance for the healing process of a nation to begin.
But beneath the jubilation, there’s a deep well of sorrow – and reckoning.
The 7 October massacre was the deadliest single-day attack on Israel since the nation’s founding in 1948 – an event that upended the country’s sense of safety and unity.
More than 1,000 were killed that day, and hundreds were taken into Gaza.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
29:41
‘Israel is committed to peace’
For the families who never stopped fighting for their return, this is both an ending and a beginning.
Now that the living hostages are home, attention turns to those who did not survive.
Officials say the process of identifying and repatriating remains will take time – and for some families, closure still remains heartbreakingly out of reach.
But the questions that linger extend far beyond grief.
Image: Thousands of people celebrate the release of the hostages. Pic: AP
In the days and weeks ahead, the Israeli government faces intense scrutiny.
How could the country’s fabled intelligence and defence apparatus fail so catastrophically?
And what accountability, if any, will fall on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has faced mounting criticism over both the failures leading up to the attack and the protracted efforts to secure the hostages’ release?
This is a nation rejoicing, but also searching for answers.
For now, though, the families in this square are holding tight to one immutable positive – after more than two long years, the living hostages, at least, are finally home.
Drones have been a common sight in Gaza for a long time, but they have always been military.
The whine of a drone is enough to trigger fear in many within the enclave.
But now, drones are delivering something different – long, lingering footage of the devastation that has been wreaked on Gaza. And the images are quite staggering.
Whole city blocks reduced to rubble. Streets destroyed. Towns where the landscape has been wholly redesigned.
Image: Whole city blocks reduced to rubble
Decapitated tower blocks and whole areas turned into black and white photographs, where there is no colour but only a palette of greys – from the dark hues of scorched walls to the lightest grey of the dust that floats through the air.
And everywhere, the indistinct dull grey of rubble – the debris of things that are no longer there.
Image: Gaza is full of people returning to their homes
The joy that met the ceasefire has now changed into degrees of anxiety and shock.
Gaza is full of people who are returning to their homes and hoping for good news. For a lucky few, fortune is kind, but for most, the news is bad.
Umm Firas has been displaced from her home in Khan Younis for the past five months. She returned today to the district she knew so well. And what she found was nothing.
Image: Umm Firas returned to find nothing
“This morning we returned to our land, to see our homes, the neighbourhoods where we once lived,” she says.
“But we found no trace of any houses, no streets, no neighbourhoods, no trees. Even the crops, even the trees – all of them had been bulldozed. The entire area has been destroyed.
“There used to be more than 1,750 houses in the block where we lived, but now not a single one remains standing. Every neighbourhood is destroyed, every home is destroyed, every school is destroyed, every tree is destroyed. The area is unliveable.
“There’s no infrastructure, no place where we can even set up a tent to sit in. Our area, in downtown Khan Younis used to be densely populated. Our homes were built right next to each other. Now there is literally nowhere to go.
“Where can we go? We can’t even find an empty spot to pitch our tent over the ruins of our own homes. So we are going to have to stay homeless and displaced.”
It is a story that comes up again and again. One man says that he cannot even reach his house because it is still too near the Israeli military officers stationed in the area.
Another, an older man whose bright pink glasses obscure weary eyes, says there is “nothing left” of his home “so we are leaving it to God”.
“I’m glad we survived and are in good health,” he says, “and now we can return there even if it means we need to eat sand!”
Image: A man says there is ‘nothing left’
Image: A bulldozer moves rubble
The bulldozers have already started work across the strip, trying to clear roads and allow access. Debris is being piled into huge piles, but this is a tiny sticking plaster on a huge wound.
The more you see of Gaza, the more impossible the task seems of rebuilding this place. The devastation is so utterly overwhelming.
Bodies are being found in the rubble while towns are full of buildings that have been so badly damaged they will have to be pulled down.
Humanitarian aid is needed urgently, but, for the moment, the entry points remain closed. Charities are pleading for access.
It is, of course, better for people to live without war than with it. Peace in Gaza gifts the ability to sleep a little better and worry a little less. But when people do wake up, what they see is an apocalyptic landscape of catastrophic destruction.