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Accurate forecasts, finally? — As a potentially historic hurricane season looms, can AI forecast models help? New model that predicts global weather can run on a single desktop computer.

Eric Berger – Jun 3, 2024 11:00 am UTC Enlarge / AI weather models are arriving just in time for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.Aurich Lawson | Getty Images reader comments 0

Much like the invigorating passage of a strong cold front, major changes are afoot in the weather forecasting community. And the end game is nothing short of revolutionary: an entirely new way to forecast weather based on artificial intelligence that can run on a desktop computer.

Today’s artificial intelligence systems require one resource more than any other to operatedata. For example, large language models such as ChatGPT voraciously consume data to improve answers to queries. The more and higher quality data, the better their training, and the sharper the results.

However, there is a finite limit to quality data, even on the Internet. These large language models have hoovered up so much data that they’re being sued widely for copyright infringement. And as they’re running out of data, the operators of these AI models are turning to ideas such as synthetic data to keep feeding the beast and produce ever more capable results for users.

If data is king, what about other applications for AI technology similar to large language models? Are there untapped pools of data? One of the most promising that has emerged in the last 18 months is weather forecasting, and recent advances have sent shockwaves through the field of meteorology.

That’s because there’s a secret weapon: an extremely rich data set. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the premiere organization in the world for numerical weather prediction, maintains a set of data about atmospheric, land, and oceanic weather data for every day, at points around the world, every few hours, going back to 1940. The last 50 years of data, after the advent of global satellite coverage, is especially rich. This dataset is known as ERA5, and it is publicly available. Advertisement

It was not created to fuel AI applications, but ERA5 has turned out to be incredibly useful for this purpose. Computer scientists only really got serious about using this data to train AI models to forecast the weather in 2022. Since then, the technology has made rapid strides. In some cases, the output of these models is already superior to global weather models that scientists have labored decades to design and build, and they require some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world to run.

“It is clear that machine learning is a significant part of the future of weather forecasting,” said Matthew Chantry, who leads AI forecasting efforts at the European weather center known as ECMWF, in an interview with Ars. Its moving fast

John Dean and Kai Marshland met as undergraduates at Stanford University in the late 2010s. Dean, an electrical engineer, interned at SpaceX during the summer of 2017. Marshland, a computer scientist, interned at the launch company the next summer. Both graduated in 2019 and were trying to figure out what to do with their lives.

“We decided we wanted to solve the problem of weather uncertainty,” Marshland said, so they co-founded a company called WindBorne Systems.

The premise of the company was simple: For about 85 percent of the Earth and its atmosphere, we have no good data about weather conditions there. A lack of quality data, which establishes initial conditions, represents a major handicap for global weather forecast models. The company’s proposed solution was in its namewind borne.

Dean and Marshland set about designing small weather balloons they could release into the atmosphere and which would fly around the world for up to 40 days, relaying useful atmospheric data that could be packaged and sold to large, government-funded weather models.

Weather balloons provide invaluable data about atmospheric conditionsreadings such as temperature, dewpoints, and pressuresthat cannot be captured by surface observations or satellites. Such atmospheric “profiles” are helpful in setting the initial conditions models start with. The problem is that traditional weather balloons are cumbersome and only operate for a few hours. Because of this, the National Weather Service only launches them twice daily from about 100 locations in the United States. Page: 1 2 3 4 Next → reader comments 0 Eric Berger Eric Berger is the senior space editor at Ars Technica, covering everything from astronomy to private space to wonky NASA policy, and author of the book Liftoff, about the rise of SpaceX. A certified meteorologist, Eric lives in Houston. Advertisement Channel Ars Technica ← Previous story Related Stories Today on Ars

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Lectric Ebikes may be launching a new XP 4 this week, and it could change everything

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Lectric Ebikes may be launching a new XP 4 this week, and it could change everything

Lectric Ebikes appears to be preparing for a major new product launch, teasing what looks like the next evolution of its wildly popular folding fat tire electric bike. Based on the clues, it looks like a new Lectric XP 4 could be inbound.

In a social media post released over the weekend, the company shared a minimalist graphic reading “XP4” along with the message “Tune in 5.6.2025 9:30AM PT.” That date – this Tuesday – suggests we’re just hours away from the big reveal of the Lectric XP 4.

If true, this would mark the next generation of the most successful electric bike in the U.S. market. The current model, the Lectric XP 3.0, has become an icon of accessible, budget-friendly electric mobility. Starting at just $999, the XP 3.0 offers a foldable frame, fat tires, a 500W motor, a rear rack, lights, and hydraulic brakes – all packed into a highly shippable design that arrives fully assembled. It’s the kind of package that has helped Lectric claim the title of best-selling e-bike brand in the U.S. for several years in a row.

With the XP 3.0 still going strong, the teaser raises plenty of questions. Will the XP 4.0 be a modest update or a major leap forward? Could we see new features like torque-sensing pedal assist, a location tracking option, or upgraded performance? Or is Lectric preparing a more comfort-oriented variant, maybe even with upgraded suspension or even more accessories included standard?

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The teaser image, which features stylized stripes in grey, blue, and black, may hold some clues. One theory is that the colors represent new trim options or component upgrades. Another possibility is that Lectric is preparing multiple variants of the XP 4.0 – perhaps targeting commuters, adventurers, and off-road riders with purpose-built versions. We took the liberty of a bit of rampant speculation late last year, so perhaps that’s now worth a revisit.

At the same time though, Lectric’s penchant for launching new models at unbelievably affordable prices has never run up against such strong pricing headwinds as those posed by uncertainty in the current US-global trade war fueled by rapidly changing tariffs for imported goods.

lectric xp 3.0 hydraulic
Previous versions of the Lectric XP e-bike line have seen sky-high sales

Whatever the case, Lectric’s knack for surprising the industry with high-value, customer-focused e-bikes means expectations will be high. The brand has built a loyal following by delivering reliable performance at a price point that few can match, and any major update to the XP lineup is likely to ripple across the market.

As a young and energetic e-bike company, Lectric is also known for throwing impressive parties around the launch of new models. It looks like I may need to hop on a red-eye to Phoenix so I can see for myself – and so I can bring you all along, of course.

Be sure to tune in Tuesday at 9:30AM PT to see what Lectric has in store – and you can bet we’ll have all the details and first impressions as soon as they drop.

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Industry calls for urgent crypto law reforms after Australian election

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Industry calls for urgent crypto law reforms after Australian election

Industry calls for urgent crypto law reforms after Australian election

The Australian crypto industry has called on the newly reelected Labor government to urgently make digital asset legislation a top priority to ensure Australia doesn’t fall further behind global markets.

The incumbent Australian Labor Party was returned in a landslide on May 3, picking up 54.9% of the two-party-preferred vote, against the Liberal and National Parties on 45.1%. Both parties went to the election promising crypto law reform, but only the opposition pledged to deliver draft legislation within 100 days.

Joy Lam, Binance’s head of global regulatory and APAC legal, said the exchange has been consulting with Treasury officials since late 2023 about its proposed legislation, and it was now time for action.

“Timing is really quite critical now because obviously it’s something that has been discussed and kicked around for quite a few years,” she told Cointelegraph.

Coinbase managing director for APAC John O’Loghlen said the reelected Albanese Government has the “opportunity and the responsibility to move quickly on this issue” and called for a Crypto-Asset Taskforce to be established within its first 100 days “with the aim of bringing forward legislation that protects consumers, promotes innovation, and stops the exodus of talent and capital to other markets.”

Cryptocurrencies, Australia, Bitcoin Regulation
Reelected Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Source: Anthony Albanese

BTC Markets CEO Caroline Bowler said that “beyond the political implications, this result sets the stage for meaningful progress in Australia’s approach to digital asset regulation.”

Lam noted that the UK released its draft regulations last week, stablecoin bills are moving forward in the US, and the EU has already implemented its MiCA legislation.

“So there’s a very clear shift. Everyone’s moving towards providing the regulatory framework that is needed for the industry to develop in a sustainable way. So time is really of the essence now.”

Draft crypto legislation within months

Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ office told Cointelegraph that exposure draft legislation would be released sometime this year for consultation, and any legislated reforms would be “phased in over time to minimize disruptions to existing businesses.”

Although the Treasury has draft legislation on “regulating digital asset platforms” and “payments system modernization” scheduled for release by the end of June, Lam isn’t confident. “I don’t know whether this quarter specifically is still sort of the timeline,” she said.

Related: Australian election will bring pro-crypto laws either way

While the ALP has been attacked by some over not taking any action in its first term in government, that may actually have resulted in a better outcome than legislation that took its cues from the approach of Joe Biden’s administration, which took a hard line on banks dealing with cryptocurrency and viewed most coins as securities. 

Industry figures report a noticeable evolution in the government’s approach to crypto between when proposals were first put out for consultation at the end of 2023 and when the Treasury released its much more positive “Statement on Developing an innovative Australian digital asset industry” in March this year.

Cryptocurrencies, Australia, Bitcoin Regulation
Australia Votes running tally on the Australian election. Source: ABC

The statement sets out key priorities, such as using the existing Australian Financial Services License (AFSL) regime to underpin the regulation of Digital Asset Platforms and payment stablecoins. It’s focused on the safe custody of client assets by centralized providers and sidesteps issues around decentralized finance platforms

Lam welcomed the use of the AFSL regime. “Obviously, we don’t need to reinvent the wheel,” she said. “It’s something that people know and understand. It’s a pretty sensible move, and it’s also going to be much easier for regulators.”

Tokenization and sandbox

The government will also review the Enhanced Regulatory Sandbox, which aims to provide space for innovative digital asset startups to grow free of red tape. The statement also highlights opportunities with tokenization.

Lam said the change in emphasis showed the government has been listening to the industry. 

“It reflects the industry feedback that they would have received in 2023 as a result of the consultation, as well as the changing landscape because obviously it’s been evolving pretty quickly internationally,” Lam said.

“They do have the benefit now of looking at what has worked and hasn’t worked in other jurisdictions, and really building on those lessons.”

Dea Markovy, policy director at Fireblocks, told Cointelegraph that “a lot of the groundwork and research is done” and it was looking broadly positive.

“Of course, a lot of details are still to come around Australia’s Digital Asset Platforms (DAPs) regime. What is significant here is the willingness of the Government to cut through the complexity and uncertainty on crypto intermediaries licensing.” 

The securities regulator ASIC released its own crypto regulations proposals (INFO 225) in December, and feedback from those consultations will help inform the government’s new legislation. 

“In essence, it details how different token issuances and crypto intermediation will fit into Australia’s existing securities legislation, providing for a transition period,” explained Markovy.

The draft guidance suggests NFTs, in-game assets and memecoins are not financial products — the local equivalent of a “security” — while a yield-bearing stablecoin or a gold-backed token probably are.

The Treasury statement also highlighted issues with debanking. Lam said that simply regulating the industry would go a long way toward solving the issue.

“What we really want from governments and regulators is that clean licensing framework, because that goes a long way to mitigating the risk and giving the banks the comfort that they need,” she said. “And then, there’s probably going to need to be some additional guidance given to banks.”

Magazine: ZK-proofs are bringing smart contracts to Bitcoin — BitcoinOS and Starknet

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World

At least 15 injured in ‘US-British’ strike on Yemeni capital, according to Houthi group

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At least 15 injured in 'US-British' strike on Yemeni capital, according to Houthi group

Yemen’s Houthi rebel group has said 15 people have been injured in “US-British” airstrikes in and around the capital Sanaa.

Most of those hurt were from the Shuub district, near the centre of the city, a statement from the health ministry said.

Another person was injured on the main airport road, the statement added.

It comes after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to retaliate against the Houthis and their Iranian “masters” following a missile attack by the group on Israel’s main international airport on Sunday morning.

It remains unclear whether the UK took part in the latest strikes and any role it may have played.

On 29 April, UK forces, the British government said, took part in a joint strike on “a Houthi military target in Yemen”.

“Careful intelligence analysis identified a cluster of buildings, used by the Houthis to manufacture drones of the type used to attack ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, located some fifteen miles south of Sanaa,” the British Ministry of Defence said in a previous statement.

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On Sunday, the militant group fired a missile at the Ben Gurion Airport, sparking panic among passengers in the terminal building.

The missile impact left a plume of smoke and briefly caused flights to be halted.

Four people were said to be injured, according to the country’s paramedic service.

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