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Labour could be on course to win a historic landslide, with the party expected to win a 194-seat majority, a YouGov poll shows.

It would be the highest number of seats of any party at any election since Stanley Baldwin won a majority of 208 in 1924.

Sky News has partnered with YouGov for the campaign and today we publish the first of their three polling projections, known as MRPs, which suggests the United Kingdom is on the cusp of a major redrawing of the political landscape.

The projection shows a historic Labour landslide, bigger than Tony Blair achieved in 1997.

It also projects a Tory wipeout in large parts of the country, a Lib Dem surge and the Scottish National Party losing over half its seats in Scotland, if the election were being held right now.

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The poll has Labour on 422 seats, up 222 compared to the 2019 results based on new constituency boundaries. This is the highest number of Labour seats on record, and a much bigger majority than anything else since the Second World War.

YouGov MRP poll for Sky News suggests that there are no safe Tory seats remaining

A 194 majority for Starmer would dwarf Mr Blair’s 1997 landslide majority of 179 and that of Margaret Thatcher, who got 144 in 1983.

The Conservatives would plummet to 140 seats, down 232 – as they face a near wipeout in London, the North East, the North West and Wales. This is the lowest since 1906 when they won 131 seats. This means the party retreats predominantly to the South East, South West and East Anglia.

This projection gives the Tories significantly fewer seats than the previous lowest number of Tory seats in British post-war history: 165 in 1997.

The Lib Dems would get 48 seats according to this projection, up 40 on 2019, quadrupling their seats and far higher than Lib Dem pollsters were predicting last year. This would mean Ed Davey’s party does not break records but takes them back to their previous levels of success under Lord Ashdown, who got 46 seats in 1997 and 62 under Charles Kennedy.

The SNP would get 17 of 57 seats in Scotland in this projection and down 31 seats on the notional 2019 results. This is the nationalist party’s lowest score this decade and well down from the peak of 56 out of 59 seats in 2015.

YouGov’s polling projection is based on interviews with 53,334 people in England and Wales and 5,541 in Scotland, with data collected between 24 May and 1 June.

This projection, which models how each individual constituency would vote, implies the following vote shares: Con 24.5%, Lab 42.9%, Lib Dem 10.6%, Reform 10.1%, Green 6.7%, SNP 2.8%, Plaid 0.7%, Others 1.7%.

YouGov MRP suggests that the Conservatives will lose 19 points on the 2019 result

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The scale of the rout under this projection means many of the Tories’ biggest cabinet figures are now under threat in this campaign.

Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, Penny Mordaunt, the Commons leader, Victoria Prentis, the attorney general, Alex Chalk, the justice secretary, David TC Davies, the Welsh secretary and Johnny Mercer, the armed forces minister in the cabinet are all on course to lose their seats under this projection.

Twelve of the 26 members of the cabinet who are running for re-election are at risk in total.

In addition, the future of Steve Baker, Northern Ireland minister, Bim Afolami, Economic Secretary to the Treasury, and housing minister Lee Rowley are all hanging in the balance, the projection suggests.

Twenty-two of the 45 ministers of the government confirmed to stand are at risk.

One member of Labour’s shadow cabinet is also at risk under this projection. The shadow culture secretary Thangham Debonnaire is fighting the Greens in her Bristol Central seat: YouGov says this seat is in the balance.

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Liverpool parade collision: Why police released ‘unprecedented’ details about man arrested

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Liverpool parade collision: Why police released 'unprecedented' details about man arrested

Merseyside Police knows – better than any force, perhaps – that in a social media age, an information vacuum can become a misinformation cauldron.

They have learnt from the aftermath of the Southport stabbing attack, where the force was criticised for being too slow to release information that could have calmed the riots that followed.

So, it feels like things have been done differently this time.

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Police tents surrounded by debris at the scene in Water Street near the Liver Building in Liverpool.
Pic: PA
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Police tents surrounded by debris at the scene in Water Street. Pic: PA

The incident happened just after 6pm on Monday.

Videos – captured by fans on their phones – were online within moments. Shared and speculated upon, with guesses as to the attacker’s identity and motive.

But alongside the huge and immediate police investigation, the communication machine moved equally fast.

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Within a few hours, police released a description of the man they had arrested – a 53-year-old white British man from the Liverpool area.

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Moment car drives into crowds in Liverpool

A few hours after that, we had an extensive press conference during which police ruled out terrorism as a motive.

Again, they appealed for videos not to be shared online and for people not to speculate.

Liverpool City Region Mayor Steve Rotheram said Merseyside Police “handled the situation fantastically” given how quickly footage of the incident was shared online.

He told Sky News that online misinformation can set “a lot of false narrative”.

The mayor added: “And we all know that speculation and social media are a wildfire of different vantages, and some of it is for nefarious reasons.

“So, it was right, of course, that the police reacted as quickly as they did to dampen down some of the types of posts that we were witnessing, you know, saying that there were other things happening throughout the city.”

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‘These were utterly tragic scenes’

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What we know so far
Eyewitnesses describe shock and sadness

Police commentator Graham Wettone also told Sky News the force had done well to quickly combat misinformation spreading online.

He said: “That’s always a problem in today’s day and age, social media taking over so much news reporting, with so many people as well present at the scene where that awful incident took place, mobile phones out, people recording it, and then posting it almost straight away.”

Dal Babu, a former Metropolitan Police chief superintendent, also highlighted it was “unprecedented” that the force “very quickly” gave the ethnicity and race of the suspect.

Speaking to BBC Radio 5 Live, he said: “I think that was to dampen down some of the speculation from the far-right that sort of continues on X even as we speak that this was a Muslim extremist and there’s a conspiracy theory.”

Mr Babu agreed that Merseyside Police appears to have learned lessons from what happened after the Southport stabbings.

He added: “The difficulty we have is in the olden days, when I was policing, you would have a conversation with trusty journalists, print journalists, radio journalists, broadcasting journalists, you’d have a conversation and say look can you please hold fire on sharing this information and people would listen.

“We don’t have that with social media, it’s like the Wild West and anything goes and so puts the police in a very, very difficult position.”

Meanwhile, the police investigation continues.

In central Liverpool, Water Street is cordoned off with police officers and vehicles in place.

Flags, sprays of paint flares and empty bottles still cover the road. Whereas they have been cleared elsewhere along the parade route, here they remain. Chilling symbols of the party, that within moments became a scene of utter horror.

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King Charles urged to seek Canadian apology for historical abuse of British children

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King Charles urged to seek Canadian apology for historical abuse of British children

King Charles and Queen Camilla are being urged to use their visit to Canada to seek an apology for the abuse of British children.

Campaigners have called on them to pursue an apology for the “dire circumstances” suffered by so-called “Home Children” over decades.

More than 100,000 were shipped from orphan homes in the UK to Canada between 1869 and 1948 with many used as cheap labour, typically as farm workers and domestic servants. Many were subject to mistreatment and abuse.

Canada has resisted calls to follow the UK and Australia in apologising for its involvement in child migrant schemes.

King Charles and Mark Carney on Monday. Pic: PA
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King Charles and Mark Carney on Monday. Pic: PA

Campaigners for the Home Children say the royal visit presents a “great opportunity” for a change of heart.

“I would ask that King Charles uses his trip to request an apology,” John Jefkins told Sky News.

John’s father Bert was one of 115,000 British Home Children transported to Canada, arriving in 1914 with his brother Reggie.

“It’s really important for the Home Children themselves and for their descendants,” John said.

“It’s something we deserve and it’s really important for the healing process, as well as building awareness of the experience of the Home Children.

“They were treated very, very badly by the Canadian government at the time. A lot of them were abused, they were treated horribly. They were second-class citizens, lepers in a way.”

More on this story:
The forgotten legacy of British children sent to Canada

John Jefkins
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John Jefkins

John added: “I think the King’s visit provides a great opportunity to reinforce our campaign and to pursue an apology because we’re part of the Commonwealth and King Charles is a new Head of the Commonwealth meeting a new Canadian prime minister. It’s a chance, for both, to look at the situation with a fresh eye.

“There’s much about this visit that looks on our sovereignty and who we are as Canadians, rightly so.

“I think it’s also right that in contemplating the country we built, we focus on the people who built it, many in the most trying of circumstances.”

The issue was addressed by the then Prince of Wales during a tour of Canada in May 2022. He said at the time: “We must find new ways to come to terms with the darker and more difficult aspects of the past.”

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King Charles and Queen Camilla are on a two-day visit to Canada.

On Tuesday, the King will deliver the Speech from the Throne to open the 45th session of Canada’s parliament.

Camilla was made Patron of Barnardo’s in 2016. The organisation sent tens of thousands of Home Children to Canada. She took on the role, having served as president since 2007.

Buckingham Palace has been contacted for comment.

A spokesperson for the Canadian government said: “The government of Canada is committed to keeping the memory of the British Home Children alive.

“Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada deeply regrets this unjust and discriminatory policy, which was in place from 1869 to 1948. Such an approach would have no place in modern Canada, and we must learn from past mistakes.”

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Ministers considering scrapping two-child benefit cap, education secretary says

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Ministers considering scrapping two-child benefit cap, education secretary says

Ministers are considering scrapping the two-child benefit cap, the education secretary told Sky News.

Bridget Phillipson, asked by Wilfred Frost on Sky News Breakfast if the cap should be lifted, said: “It’s not off the table.

“It’s certainly something that we’re considering.”

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The policy means most families cannot claim means-tested benefits for more than their first two children born after April 2017.

Ms Phillipson’s comments are the strongest a minister has made about the policy potentially being scrapped.

Analysis by The Resolution Foundation thinktank over the weekend found 470,000 children would be lifted out of poverty if parents could claim benefits for more than two children.

More on Benefits

However, Ms Phillipson said the government inherited a “really difficult situation” with public finances from the Conservative government.

“These are not easy or straightforward choices in terms of how we stack it up, but we know the damage child poverty causes,” she added.

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Why did Labour delay their child poverty strategy?

The education secretary, who is also head of the government’s child poverty taskforce, said ministers are trying to help in other ways, such as expanding funded childcare hours and opening free breakfast clubs.

She said it is “the moral purpose of Labour governments to ensure that everyone, no matter their background, can get on in life”.

Her “personal mission” is to tackle child poverty, she said.

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Sir Keir Starmer is said to have privately backed abolishing the two-child limit and requested the Treasury find the £3.5bn to do so, The Observer reported on Sunday.

The government’s child poverty strategy, which the taskforce is working on, has been delayed from its original publication date in the spring.

Whether to scrap the two-child benefit cap is one of the main issues it is looking at.

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