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Labour could be on course to win a historic landslide, with the party expected to win a 194-seat majority, a YouGov poll shows.

It would be the highest number of seats of any party at any election since Stanley Baldwin won a majority of 208 in 1924.

Sky News has partnered with YouGov for the campaign and today we publish the first of their three polling projections, known as MRPs, which suggests the United Kingdom is on the cusp of a major redrawing of the political landscape.

The projection shows a historic Labour landslide, bigger than Tony Blair achieved in 1997.

It also projects a Tory wipeout in large parts of the country, a Lib Dem surge and the Scottish National Party losing over half its seats in Scotland, if the election were being held right now.

Election latest: Farage announces he will stand

The poll has Labour on 422 seats, up 222 compared to the 2019 results based on new constituency boundaries. This is the highest number of Labour seats on record, and a much bigger majority than anything else since the Second World War.

YouGov MRP poll for Sky News suggests that there are no safe Tory seats remaining

A 194 majority for Starmer would dwarf Mr Blair’s 1997 landslide majority of 179 and that of Margaret Thatcher, who got 144 in 1983.

The Conservatives would plummet to 140 seats, down 232 – as they face a near wipeout in London, the North East, the North West and Wales. This is the lowest since 1906 when they won 131 seats. This means the party retreats predominantly to the South East, South West and East Anglia.

This projection gives the Tories significantly fewer seats than the previous lowest number of Tory seats in British post-war history: 165 in 1997.

The Lib Dems would get 48 seats according to this projection, up 40 on 2019, quadrupling their seats and far higher than Lib Dem pollsters were predicting last year. This would mean Ed Davey’s party does not break records but takes them back to their previous levels of success under Lord Ashdown, who got 46 seats in 1997 and 62 under Charles Kennedy.

The SNP would get 17 of 57 seats in Scotland in this projection and down 31 seats on the notional 2019 results. This is the nationalist party’s lowest score this decade and well down from the peak of 56 out of 59 seats in 2015.

YouGov’s polling projection is based on interviews with 53,334 people in England and Wales and 5,541 in Scotland, with data collected between 24 May and 1 June.

This projection, which models how each individual constituency would vote, implies the following vote shares: Con 24.5%, Lab 42.9%, Lib Dem 10.6%, Reform 10.1%, Green 6.7%, SNP 2.8%, Plaid 0.7%, Others 1.7%.

YouGov MRP suggests that the Conservatives will lose 19 points on the 2019 result

Read more on the election:
General Election poll tracker
Warning over risk of audio deepfakes that could derail election
Tories could tumble but there’s no mad enthusiasm for Labour

The scale of the rout under this projection means many of the Tories’ biggest cabinet figures are now under threat in this campaign.

Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, Penny Mordaunt, the Commons leader, Victoria Prentis, the attorney general, Alex Chalk, the justice secretary, David TC Davies, the Welsh secretary and Johnny Mercer, the armed forces minister in the cabinet are all on course to lose their seats under this projection.

Twelve of the 26 members of the cabinet who are running for re-election are at risk in total.

In addition, the future of Steve Baker, Northern Ireland minister, Bim Afolami, Economic Secretary to the Treasury, and housing minister Lee Rowley are all hanging in the balance, the projection suggests.

Twenty-two of the 45 ministers of the government confirmed to stand are at risk.

One member of Labour’s shadow cabinet is also at risk under this projection. The shadow culture secretary Thangham Debonnaire is fighting the Greens in her Bristol Central seat: YouGov says this seat is in the balance.

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MP Zarah Sultana who was ousted from Labour announces she is starting new political party with Jeremy Corbyn

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MP Zarah Sultana who was ousted from Labour announces she is starting new political party with Jeremy Corbyn

An MP who was ousted from the Labour Party has announced she is setting up a new political party with Jeremy Corbyn.

Independent MP Zarah Sultana said she and the former Labour leader will co-lead the new party, which she did not provide a name for.

She said other independent MPs, campaigners and activists from across the country will join them, but did not name anyone.

Politics latest: Zarah Sultana’s stinging resignation letter

Ms Sultana also said she was “resigning” from the Labour Party after 14 years.

She was suspended as a Labour MP shortly after they came to power last summer for voting against the government maintaining the two-child benefit cap.

Several others from the left of the party, including Mr Corbyn, were also suspended for voting against the government, and also remained as independent MPs.

More on Jeremy Corbyn

However, Ms Sultana was still a member of the Labour Party – until now.

Zarah Sultana

Mr Corbyn has previously said the independent MPs who were suspended from Labour would “come together” to provide an “alternative.

The other four are: Iqbal Mohamed, Shockat Adam, Ayoub Khan and Adnan Hussain.

Mr Corbyn and the other four independents have not said if they are part of the new party Ms Sultana announced.

In her announcement, Ms Sultana said she would vote to abolish the two-child benefit cap again and also voted against scrapping the winter fuel payment for most pensioners.

Ms Sultana also voted against the government’s welfare bill this week, which was heavily watered down as Sir Keir Starmer tried to prevent a major rebellion from his own MPs.

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Protesters block Israeli arms manufacturer in Bristol

On Wednesday, Ms Sultana spoke passionately against Palestine Action being proscribed as a terror organisation – but MPs eventually voted for it to be.

She said to proscribe it is “a deliberate distortion of the law to chill dissent, criminalise solidarity and suppress the truth”.

Ms Sultana said they were founding the new party because “Westminster is broken but the real crisis is deeper – just 50 families now own more wealth than half the UK population”.

She called Reform leader Nigel Farage “a billionaire-backed grifter” leading the polls “because Labour has completely failed to improve people’s lives.

Reform leader Nigel Farage attending day three of Royal Ascot.
Pic: PA
Image:
Ms Sultana called Nigel Farage a ‘billionaire-backed grifter’. Pic: PA

The MP, who has spoken passionately about Gaza, added: “Across the political establishment, from Farage to Starmer, they smear people of conscience trying to stop a genocide in Gaza as terrorists.

“But the truth is clear: this government is an active participant in genocide. And the British people oppose it.

“We are not going to take this anymore.”

A Labour Party spokesperson said: “In just 12 months, this Labour government has boosted wages, delivered an extra four million NHS appointments, opened 750 free breakfast clubs, secured three trade deals and four interest rate cuts lowering mortgage payments for millions.

“Only Labour can deliver the change needed to renew Britain.”

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Tornado Cash co-founder keeps testimony plans unclear ahead of trial

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Tornado Cash co-founder keeps testimony plans unclear ahead of trial

Tornado Cash co-founder keeps testimony plans unclear ahead of trial

Roman Storm is scheduled to appear in a New York courtroom for his criminal trial on July 14, facing money laundering and conspiracy charges.

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US Senator Cynthia Lummis drafts standalone crypto tax bill

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US Senator Cynthia Lummis drafts standalone crypto tax bill

US Senator Cynthia Lummis drafts standalone crypto tax bill

The Wyoming Senator seeks to end double taxation and add clarity to the tax treatment of crypto staking, mining, and lending transactions.

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