General Election 2024: Tory wipeout and 12 ministers at risk of losing seats, YouGov poll suggests

Published

12 months ago

June 3, 2024

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Labour could be on course to win a historic landslide, with the party expected to win a 194-seat majority, a YouGov poll shows.

It would be the highest number of seats of any party at any election since Stanley Baldwin won a majority of 208 in 1924.

Sky News has partnered with YouGov for the campaign and today we publish the first of their three polling projections, known as MRPs, which suggests the United Kingdom is on the cusp of a major redrawing of the political landscape.

The projection shows a historic Labour landslide, bigger than Tony Blair achieved in 1997.

It also projects a Tory wipeout in large parts of the country, a Lib Dem surge and the Scottish National Party losing over half its seats in Scotland, if the election were being held right now.

Election latest: Farage announces he will stand

The poll has Labour on 422 seats, up 222 compared to the 2019 results based on new constituency boundaries. This is the highest number of Labour seats on record, and a much bigger majority than anything else since the Second World War.

A 194 majority for Starmer would dwarf Mr Blair’s 1997 landslide majority of 179 and that of Margaret Thatcher, who got 144 in 1983.

The Conservatives would plummet to 140 seats, down 232 – as they face a near wipeout in London, the North East, the North West and Wales. This is the lowest since 1906 when they won 131 seats. This means the party retreats predominantly to the South East, South West and East Anglia.

This projection gives the Tories significantly fewer seats than the previous lowest number of Tory seats in British post-war history: 165 in 1997.

The Lib Dems would get 48 seats according to this projection, up 40 on 2019, quadrupling their seats and far higher than Lib Dem pollsters were predicting last year. This would mean Ed Davey’s party does not break records but takes them back to their previous levels of success under Lord Ashdown, who got 46 seats in 1997 and 62 under Charles Kennedy.

The SNP would get 17 of 57 seats in Scotland in this projection and down 31 seats on the notional 2019 results. This is the nationalist party’s lowest score this decade and well down from the peak of 56 out of 59 seats in 2015.

YouGov’s polling projection is based on interviews with 53,334 people in England and Wales and 5,541 in Scotland, with data collected between 24 May and 1 June.

This projection, which models how each individual constituency would vote, implies the following vote shares: Con 24.5%, Lab 42.9%, Lib Dem 10.6%, Reform 10.1%, Green 6.7%, SNP 2.8%, Plaid 0.7%, Others 1.7%.

The scale of the rout under this projection means many of the Tories’ biggest cabinet figures are now under threat in this campaign.

Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, Penny Mordaunt, the Commons leader, Victoria Prentis, the attorney general, Alex Chalk, the justice secretary, David TC Davies, the Welsh secretary and Johnny Mercer, the armed forces minister in the cabinet are all on course to lose their seats under this projection.

Twelve of the 26 members of the cabinet who are running for re-election are at risk in total.

In addition, the future of Steve Baker, Northern Ireland minister, Bim Afolami, Economic Secretary to the Treasury, and housing minister Lee Rowley are all hanging in the balance, the projection suggests.

Twenty-two of the 45 ministers of the government confirmed to stand are at risk.

One member of Labour’s shadow cabinet is also at risk under this projection. The shadow culture secretary Thangham Debonnaire is fighting the Greens in her Bristol Central seat: YouGov says this seat is in the balance.

Politics

UK to require crypto firms to report every customer transaction

Published

2 hours ago

May 18, 2025

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UK to require crypto firms to report every customer transaction

United Kingdom crypto companies will need to collect and report data from every customer trade and transfer beginning Jan. 1, 2026 as part of a broader effort to improve crypto tax reporting, the UK government said.

Everything from the user’s full name, home address and tax identification number will need to be collected and reported for every transaction, including the cryptocurrency used and the amount moved, the UK Revenue and Customs department said in a May 14 statement.

Details of companies, trusts and charities transacting on crypto platforms will also need to be reported.

Failure to comply or inaccurate reporting may incur penalties of up to 300 British pounds ($398.4) per user. The UK Revenue and Customs department said it would inform companies on how to comply with the incoming measures in due course.

However, UK authorities are encouraging crypto firms to start collecting data now to ensure compliance readiness.

The new rule is part of the UK’s integration of the Organisation for Economic Development’s Cryptoasset Reporting Framework to improve transparency in crypto tax reporting.

The changes reflect the UK government’s aim to establish a more robust regulatory framework that supports industry growth while ensuring consumer protection.

UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves also introduced a draft bill in late April to bring crypto exchanges, custodians and broker-dealers within its regulatory reach to combat scams and fraud.

“Today’s announcement sends a clear signal: Britain is open for business — but closed to fraud, abuse, and instability,” Reeves said at the time.

A study from the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority last November found that 12% of UK adults owned crypto in 2024 — a significant increase from the 4% reported in 2021.

UK’s approach contrasts with EU’s MiCA

The UK’s move to integrate the crypto rules into its existing financial framework contrasts with the European Union’s approach, which introduced the new Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation framework last year.

According to the MiCA Crypto Alliance, one key difference is that the UK will allow foreign stablecoin issuers to operate in the UK without needing to register.

There will also be no cap on stablecoin volumes, unlike the EU’s approach, which may impose controls on stablecoin issuers to manage systemic risks.

Magazine: Crypto wanted to overthrow banks, now it’s becoming them in stablecoin fight

Politics

Hong Kong police busts $15M laundering ring that used crypto, 500 bank accounts

Published

6 hours ago

May 18, 2025

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Hong Kong police busts M laundering ring that used crypto, 500 bank accounts

Hong Kong police arrested 12 people involved in a cross-border money laundering scheme that relied on crypto and over 500 stooge bank accounts to launder HK$118 million ($15 million), local news outlets reported.

The syndicate was dismantled on May 15, resulting in the arrest of nine men and three women in mainland China and Hong Kong.

The suspects allegedly recruited others to open bank accounts to receive proceeds from fraud cases, which were then converted into crypto at crypto exchange shops to launder the illicit funds, Hong Kong Commercial Daily reported on May 17.

The criminal organization rented a residential unit in the Hong Kong neighborhood of Mong Kok to plan and carry out its money laundering activities. Of the $15 million laundered, more than $1.2 million was linked to 58 reported fraud cases.

Caught in action

The bust followed police surveillance on May 15, when two recruits left the syndicate’s Mong Kok base — one visiting a bank, the other an ATM — before both went to convert the cash into crypto at a crypto exchange shop in the neighborhood of Tsim Sha Tsui.

Police arrested both individuals on the spot, seizing around HK$770,000 ($98,540) in cash before the funds could be laundered. The other 10 individuals, aged between 20 and 41, were arrested soon after.

Police seized approximately HK$1.05 million ($134,370) in cash, over 560 ATM cards, multiple mobile phones, bank documents and records related to crypto transactions.

Senior Inspector Tse Ka-lun of Hong Kong’s Commercial Crime Bureau claimed that the individuals often used bank accounts from their friends and family to launder the stolen funds.

Hong Kong reported a 12% year-on-year increase in fraud reports in 2024, with authorities making more than 10,000 fraud-related arrests. Of those arrests, around 73% involved individuals who held stooge bank accounts.

The crackdown comes as Hong Kong continues to roll out its crypto regulatory framework to support local innovation, protect consumers and establish itself as a crypto hub.

Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission introduced new rules for crypto exchanges offering staking services in April. Two months earlier, the securities regulator rolled out a roadmap to improve market access, optimize compliance, expand product offerings, strengthen crypto infrastructure and foster relationships with industry players.

Magazine: Crypto wanted to overthrow banks, now it’s becoming them in stablecoin fight

Politics

Keir Starmer says closer EU ties will be good for UK jobs, bills and borders ahead of key talks

Published

10 hours ago

May 17, 2025

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Keir Starmer says closer EU ties will be good for UK jobs, bills and borders ahead of key talks

Sir Keir Starmer has said closer ties with the EU will be good for the UK’s jobs, bills and borders ahead of a summit where he could announce a deal with the bloc.

The government is set to host EU leaders in London on Monday as part of its efforts to “reset” relations post-Brexit.

A deal granting the UK access to a major EU defence fund could be on the table, according to reports – but disagreements over a youth mobility scheme and fishing rights could prove to be a stumbling block.

The prime minister has appeared to signal a youth mobility deal could be possible, telling The Times that while freedom of movement is a “red line”, youth mobility does not come under this.

His comment comes after Kaja Kallas, the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs, said on Friday work on a defence deal was progressing but “we’re not there yet”.

Sir Keir met European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen later that day while at a summit in Albania.

If agreed, the deal will be the third in two weeks, following trade agreements with India and the US.

Sir Keir said: “First India, then the United States – in the last two weeks alone that’s jobs saved, faster growth and wages rising.

“More money in the pockets of British working people, achieved through striking deals not striking poses.

“Tomorrow, we take another step forward, with yet more benefits for the United Kingdom as the result of a strengthened partnership with the European Union.”

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Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has said she is “worried” about what the PM might have negotiated.

Ms Badenoch – who has promised to rip up the deal with the EU if it breaches her red lines on Brexit – said: “Labour should have used this review of our EU trade deal to secure new wins for Britain, such as an EU-wide agreement on Brits using e-gates on the continent.

“Instead, it sounds like we’re giving away our fishing quotas, becoming a rule-taker from Brussels once again and getting free movement by the back door. This isn’t a reset, it’s a surrender.”