General Election 2024: Tory wipeout and 12 ministers at risk of losing seats, YouGov poll suggests
Labour could be on course to win a historic landslide, with the party expected to win a 194-seat majority, a YouGov poll shows.
It would be the highest number of seats of any party at any election since Stanley Baldwin won a majority of 208 in 1924.
Sky News has partnered with YouGov for the campaign and today we publish the first of their three polling projections, known as MRPs, which suggests the United Kingdom is on the cusp of a major redrawing of the political landscape.
The projection shows a historic Labour landslide, bigger than Tony Blair achieved in 1997.
It also projects a Tory wipeout in large parts of the country, a Lib Dem surge and the Scottish National Party losing over half its seats in Scotland, if the election were being held right now.
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The poll has Labour on 422 seats, up 222 compared to the 2019 results based on new constituency boundaries. This is the highest number of Labour seats on record, and a much bigger majority than anything else since the Second World War.
A 194 majority for Starmer would dwarf Mr Blair’s 1997 landslide majority of 179 and that of Margaret Thatcher, who got 144 in 1983.
The Conservatives would plummet to 140 seats, down 232 – as they face a near wipeout in London, the North East, the North West and Wales. This is the lowest since 1906 when they won 131 seats. This means the party retreats predominantly to the South East, South West and East Anglia.
This projection gives the Tories significantly fewer seats than the previous lowest number of Tory seats in British post-war history: 165 in 1997.
The Lib Dems would get 48 seats according to this projection, up 40 on 2019, quadrupling their seats and far higher than Lib Dem pollsters were predicting last year. This would mean Ed Davey’s party does not break records but takes them back to their previous levels of success under Lord Ashdown, who got 46 seats in 1997 and 62 under Charles Kennedy.
The SNP would get 17 of 57 seats in Scotland in this projection and down 31 seats on the notional 2019 results. This is the nationalist party’s lowest score this decade and well down from the peak of 56 out of 59 seats in 2015.
YouGov’s polling projection is based on interviews with 53,334 people in England and Wales and 5,541 in Scotland, with data collected between 24 May and 1 June.
This projection, which models how each individual constituency would vote, implies the following vote shares: Con 24.5%, Lab 42.9%, Lib Dem 10.6%, Reform 10.1%, Green 6.7%, SNP 2.8%, Plaid 0.7%, Others 1.7%.
Read more on the election:
General Election poll tracker
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Tories could tumble but there’s no mad enthusiasm for Labour
The scale of the rout under this projection means many of the Tories’ biggest cabinet figures are now under threat in this campaign.
Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, Penny Mordaunt, the Commons leader, Victoria Prentis, the attorney general, Alex Chalk, the justice secretary, David TC Davies, the Welsh secretary and Johnny Mercer, the armed forces minister in the cabinet are all on course to lose their seats under this projection.
Twelve of the 26 members of the cabinet who are running for re-election are at risk in total.
In addition, the future of Steve Baker, Northern Ireland minister, Bim Afolami, Economic Secretary to the Treasury, and housing minister Lee Rowley are all hanging in the balance, the projection suggests.
Twenty-two of the 45 ministers of the government confirmed to stand are at risk.
One member of Labour’s shadow cabinet is also at risk under this projection. The shadow culture secretary Thangham Debonnaire is fighting the Greens in her Bristol Central seat: YouGov says this seat is in the balance.
Cryptocurrency markets saw another week of consolidation following last week’s long-awaited market recovery.
While Bitcoin (BTC) remained above the key $90,000 psychological level, investor sentiment continued to be dominated by “fear,” with a marginal improvement from 20 to 25 within the week, according to CoinMarketCap’s Fear & Greed index.
In the wider crypto space, the Ether (ETH) treasury trade appears to be unwinding, as the monthly acquisitions by Ethereum digital asset treasuries (DATs) fell 81% in the past three months from August’s peak.
Still, the biggest corporate Ether holder, BitMine Immersion Technologies, continued to amass ETH, while other treasury firms carried on with their fundraising efforts for future acquisitions.
Investors are also awaiting the key interest rate decision during the US Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on Wednesday to provide more cues about monetary policy leading into 2026.
Markets are pricing in an 87% chance of a 25 basis point interest rate cut, up from 62% a month ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
Ethereum treasury trade unwinds 80% as handful of whales dominate buys
The Ethereum treasury trade appears to be unwinding as monthly acquisitions continue to decline since the August high, though the largest players continue to scoop up billions of the Ether supply.
Investments from Ethereum DATs fell 81% in the past three months, from 1.97 million Ether in August to 370,000 ETH in November, according to Bitwise, an asset management firm.
“ETH DAT bear continues,” wrote Max Shennon, senior research associate at Bitwise, in a Tuesday X post.
Despite the slowdown, some companies with stronger financial backgrounds continued to accumulate the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency or raise funds for future purchases.
BitMine Immersion Technologies, the largest corporate Ether holder, accumulated about 679,000 Ether worth $2.13 billion over the past month, completing 62% of its target to accumulate 5% of the ETH supply, according to data from the Strategicethreserve.
BitMine holds an additional $882 million worth of cash according to the data aggregator, which may signal more incoming Ether accumulation.
Citadel causes uproar by urging SEC to regulate DeFi tokenized stocks
Market maker Citadel Securities has recommended that the US Securities and Exchange Commission tighten regulations on decentralized finance regarding tokenized stocks, causing backlash from crypto users.
Citadel Securities told the SEC in a letter on Tuesday that DeFi developers, smart-contract coders, and self-custody wallet providers should not be given “broad exemptive relief” for offering trading of tokenized US equities.
It argued that DeFi trading platforms likely fall under the definitions of an “exchange” or “broker-dealer” and should be regulated under securities laws if offering tokenized stocks.
“Granting broad exemptive relief to facilitate the trading of a tokenized share via DeFi protocols would create two separate regulatory regimes for the trading of the same security,” it argued. “This outcome would be the exact opposite of the “technology-neutral” approach taken by the Exchange Act.”
Citadel’s letter, made in response to the SEC looking for feedback on how it should approach regulating tokenized stocks, has drawn considerable backlash from the crypto community and organizations advocating for innovation in the blockchain space.
Arthur Hayes warns Monad could crash 99%, calls it high-risk “VC coin”
Crypto veteran Arthur Hayes has issued a warning over Monad, saying the recently launched layer-1 blockchain could plunge as much as 99% and end up as another failed experiment driven by venture capital hype rather than real adoption.
Speaking on Altcoin Daily, the former BitMEX chief described the project as “another high FDV, low-float VC coin,” arguing that its token structure alone puts retail traders at risk. FDV stands for Fully Diluted Value, which is the market value of a crypto project if all its tokens were already in circulation.
According to Hayes, projects with a large gap between FDV and circulating supply often experience early price spikes, followed by deep selloffs once insider tokens unlock. “It’s going to be another bear chain,” Hayes said, adding that while every new coin gets an initial pump, that does not mean it will develop a lasting use case.
Hayes said most new layer-1 networks ultimately fail, with only a handful likely to retain long-term relevance. He identified Bitcoin, Ether, Solana (SOL) and Zcash (ZEC) as the small group of protocols he expects to survive the next cycle.
Last year, Monad raised $225 million in funding from venture capital firm Paradigm. The layer-1 blockchain went live on Monday, accompanied by an airdrop of its MON token.
$25 billion crypto lending market now led by “transparent” players: Galaxy
The crypto lending market has become more transparent than ever, led by the likes of Tether, Nexo and Galaxy, and has just hit an aggregate loan book of nearly $25 billion outstanding in the third quarter.
The size of the crypto lending market has increased by more than 200% since the beginning of 2024, according to Galaxy Research. Its latest quarter puts it at its highest since its peak in Q1 2022.
However, it has yet to return to its peak of $37 billion at that time.
The main difference is the number of new centralized finance lending platforms and much more transparency, said Galaxy’s head of research, Alex Thorn.
Thorn said on Sunday that he was proud of the chart and the transparency of its contributors, adding that it was a “big change from prior market cycles.”
Portal to Bitcoin raises $25 million and launches atomic OTC desk
Bitcoin-native interoperability protocol Portal to Bitcoin has raised $25 million in funding amid the launch of what it describes as an atomic over-the-counter (OTC) trading desk.
According to a Thursday announcement shared with Cointelegraph, the company raised $25 million in a round led by digital asset lender JTSA Global. The fundraise follows previous investments by Coinbase Ventures, OKX Ventures, Arrington Capital and others.
Alongside the fresh funding, the company rolled out its Atomic OTC desk, promising “instant, trustless cross-chain settlement of large block trades.” The newly deployed service is reminiscent of crosschain atomic swaps offered by THORChain, Chainflip, and more Bitcoin-focused systems such as Liquality and Boltz.
What sets Portal to Bitcoin apart is its focus on the Bitcoin-anchored crosschain OTC market for institutions and whales, along with its tech stack. “Portal provides the infrastructure to make Bitcoin the settlement layer for global asset markets, without bridges, custodians, or wrapped assets,” said Chandra Duggirala, founder and CEO of Portal.
DeFi market overview
According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, most of the 100 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization ended the week in the red.
The Canton (CC) token fell 18%, marking the week’s biggest decline in the top 100, followed by the Starknet (STRK) token, down 16% on the weekly chart.
Thanks for reading our summary of this week’s most impactful DeFi developments. Join us next Friday for more stories, insights and education regarding this dynamically advancing space.
The lower house of Poland’s parliament failed to secure the required three-fifths majority to override President Karol Nawrocki’s veto of the Crypto-Asset Market Act, pushing the country further away from regulating its digital-asset sector at a moment when lawmakers argue that oversight is increasingly urgent.
As Bloomberg reported Friday, the legislation — advanced by Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s government — was intended to align Poland with the European Union’s MiCA framework for crypto markets. The bill was introduced in June but did not survive the president’s veto.
Nawrocki blocked the measure last week, arguing it would “threaten the freedoms of Poles, their property, and the stability of the state,” as Cointelegraph previously reported.
With the president’s veto upheld, the bill will not move forward, forcing the government to restart its crypto lawmaking process.
The proposal has sharply divided lawmakers and the crypto industry. Supporters framed the bill as a national security priority, saying that comprehensive rules are necessary to curb fraud and prevent potential misuse of crypto assets by foreign actors, including Russia, according to Bloomberg.
However, several crypto-industry groups opposed the legislation, warning that its requirements were overly burdensome and could drive startups out of the country.
Critics pointed to stringent licensing rules, high compliance costs and criminal-liability provisions for service-provider executives, arguing that the bill risked stifling innovation and creating an uncompetitive business environment.
Related: EU plan would boost ESMA powers over crypto and capital markets
Crypto adoption in Poland ramps up amid regulatory pause
Cryptocurrency use in Poland continues to accelerate even as the country stalls on comprehensive regulation. Chainalysis recently identified Poland as one of Europe’s “large crypto economies,” noting that the country’s onchain activity has expanded significantly over the past year.
According to the company’s 2025 Europe Crypto Adoption report, Poland recorded more than 50% year-over-year growth in overall transaction volume.
Polish investors are also increasing their exposure to Bitcoin (BTC), reflected in a surge in Bitcoin ATM installations in recent years. In January, Cointelegraph reported that Poland had become the world’s fifth-largest Bitcoin ATM hub, surpassing even El Salvador — a country that has made Bitcoin a central element of its monetary and financial system.
Magazine: When privacy and AML laws conflict: Crypto projects’ impossible choice
US attorneys representing the federal government have requested that a judge send Terraform Labs co-founder Do Kwon to prison for 12 years at his sentencing hearing next week.
In a Thursday filing in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York, prosecutors asked that a judge sentence Kwon “to a term of twelve years’ imprisonment and finalize the forfeiture of his criminal proceeds.”
The filing came about four months after the Terraform co-founder pleaded guilty to two counts of wire fraud and conspiracy to defraud.
“In just a few years, Kwon caused losses that eclipsed those caused by Samuel Bankman-Fried […] Alexander Mashinsky […] and Karl Sebastian Greenwood [….] combined [emphasis included in filing],” said the Thursday filing. “The Terraform market crash triggered a cascade of crises that swept through cryptocurrency markets and contributed to what has since become known as ‘Crypto Winter.’”
Kwon, who is scheduled to be sentenced on Thursday, was indicted by US authorities in March 2023 for charges including securities fraud, market manipulation, money laundering and wire fraud related to his role at Terraform.
Though his whereabouts were initially unknown after the collapse of Terra in 2022, authorities in Montenegro arrested him on charges unrelated to his role at the company, and he was later extradited to the US.
Related: South Korea targets sub-$680 crypto transfers in sweeping AML crackdown
The price of Terra’s native token, LUNA, surged by more than 40% in the previous 24 hours amid the release of the sentencing recommendation, from about $0.07 to $0.10 at the time of publication. However, the token reached an all-time high price of more than $19.00 before the ecosystem collapsed in May 2022.
Kwon says he could still face prison time in South Korea
In a November court filing, lawyers representing Kwon asked that the Terraform co-founder be given a sentence of no more than five years. His attorneys presented several arguments in favor of a shorter sentence, including that the co-founder could face 40 years in prison in his native South Korea, where prosecutors are also working on a case against him.
“He would not be able to walk out of jail in the United States as a free man for any amount of time: He will be taken from whatever facility in which he serves his sentence directly to an immigration detention center to await a deportation flight to Seoul, where he will immediately reenter pretrial detention pending his criminal charges in South Korea,” said Kwon’s lawyers.
Although Kwon’s and prosecutors’ respective recommendations will remain under consideration, the judge overseeing the sentencing hearing has the authority to sentence the Terraform co-founder to decades in prison, or a significantly shorter time. In contrast, former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried is serving a 25-year sentence after his conviction on seven felony charges, former Celsius CEO Alex Mashinsky was sentenced to 12 years in prison, and a judge sent Karl Sebastian Greenwood to prison for 20 years for his role in the OneCoin scheme.
Magazine: When privacy and AML laws conflict: Crypto projects’ impossible choice
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