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Labour could be on course to win a historic landslide, with the party expected to win a 194-seat majority, a YouGov poll shows.

It would be the highest number of seats of any party at any election since Stanley Baldwin won a majority of 208 in 1924.

Sky News has partnered with YouGov for the campaign and today we publish the first of their three polling projections, known as MRPs, which suggests the United Kingdom is on the cusp of a major redrawing of the political landscape.

The projection shows a historic Labour landslide, bigger than Tony Blair achieved in 1997.

It also projects a Tory wipeout in large parts of the country, a Lib Dem surge and the Scottish National Party losing over half its seats in Scotland, if the election were being held right now.

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The poll has Labour on 422 seats, up 222 compared to the 2019 results based on new constituency boundaries. This is the highest number of Labour seats on record, and a much bigger majority than anything else since the Second World War.

YouGov MRP poll for Sky News suggests that there are no safe Tory seats remaining

A 194 majority for Starmer would dwarf Mr Blair’s 1997 landslide majority of 179 and that of Margaret Thatcher, who got 144 in 1983.

The Conservatives would plummet to 140 seats, down 232 – as they face a near wipeout in London, the North East, the North West and Wales. This is the lowest since 1906 when they won 131 seats. This means the party retreats predominantly to the South East, South West and East Anglia.

This projection gives the Tories significantly fewer seats than the previous lowest number of Tory seats in British post-war history: 165 in 1997.

The Lib Dems would get 48 seats according to this projection, up 40 on 2019, quadrupling their seats and far higher than Lib Dem pollsters were predicting last year. This would mean Ed Davey’s party does not break records but takes them back to their previous levels of success under Lord Ashdown, who got 46 seats in 1997 and 62 under Charles Kennedy.

The SNP would get 17 of 57 seats in Scotland in this projection and down 31 seats on the notional 2019 results. This is the nationalist party’s lowest score this decade and well down from the peak of 56 out of 59 seats in 2015.

YouGov’s polling projection is based on interviews with 53,334 people in England and Wales and 5,541 in Scotland, with data collected between 24 May and 1 June.

This projection, which models how each individual constituency would vote, implies the following vote shares: Con 24.5%, Lab 42.9%, Lib Dem 10.6%, Reform 10.1%, Green 6.7%, SNP 2.8%, Plaid 0.7%, Others 1.7%.

YouGov MRP suggests that the Conservatives will lose 19 points on the 2019 result

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General Election poll tracker
Warning over risk of audio deepfakes that could derail election
Tories could tumble but there’s no mad enthusiasm for Labour

The scale of the rout under this projection means many of the Tories’ biggest cabinet figures are now under threat in this campaign.

Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, Penny Mordaunt, the Commons leader, Victoria Prentis, the attorney general, Alex Chalk, the justice secretary, David TC Davies, the Welsh secretary and Johnny Mercer, the armed forces minister in the cabinet are all on course to lose their seats under this projection.

Twelve of the 26 members of the cabinet who are running for re-election are at risk in total.

In addition, the future of Steve Baker, Northern Ireland minister, Bim Afolami, Economic Secretary to the Treasury, and housing minister Lee Rowley are all hanging in the balance, the projection suggests.

Twenty-two of the 45 ministers of the government confirmed to stand are at risk.

One member of Labour’s shadow cabinet is also at risk under this projection. The shadow culture secretary Thangham Debonnaire is fighting the Greens in her Bristol Central seat: YouGov says this seat is in the balance.

What is an MRP poll?

You might come across the term MRP quite a lot in the coming weeks as we head towards the general election on 4 July.

An MRP poll – which stands for multilevel regression and post-stratification – is a type of poll that gets pundits excited because it draws from large amounts of data, including a large sample size and additional information like locations.

MRP polls first ask a large representative sample of people how they will vote. They then use that information of how different groups say they will vote combined with information about the sorts of people who live in different constituencies. This allows the pollster to estimate how people will vote in each constituency across the country – even when they may have surveyed just a few people, or even none, in some places.

This can then be broken down into smaller groups to see how voters in different areas say they plan to vote. Rather than making more generalised assumptions that everyone behaves the same way in different constituencies, it takes into account the fact that every constituency is its own race and local issues and trends may be at play.

What MRP can’t do is account for very specific local factors – such as a hospital or large employer closing down in a constituency, or a scandal relating to a particular candidate.

It still involves a lot of assumptions and estimates – and some races are too close to call with any level of certainty. It also only gives a snapshot of people’s opinions, and a lot can change over the course of an election campaign. However, it does give us a more nuanced idea about what the general election result could be than other more generic polls.

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Starmer warns of ‘lost decade of kids’ – as he launches 10-year youth plan

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Starmer warns of 'lost decade of kids' - as he launches 10-year youth plan

Sir Keir Starmer has declared it his “moral mission” to “turn the tide on the lost decade of young kids left as collateral damage”.

The government launches its 10-year youth plan today, which has pledged £500m to reviving youth services.

Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy has also warned that young people are now “the most isolated in generations” and face challenges that are “urgent and demand a major change in direction”.

But despite the strong language, the Conservatives have warned that “under Labour, the outlook for the next generation is increasingly bleak”.

Lisa Nandy is on Sky News from 7am – follow live

Launching the 10-year strategy, Sir Keir said: “As a dad and as prime minister, I believe it is our generation’s greatest responsibility to turn the tide on the lost decade of young kids left as collateral damage. It is our moral mission.

“Today, my government sets out a clear, ambitious and deliverable plan – investing in the next generation so that every child has the chance to see their talents take them as far as their ability can.”

What’s in the government’s strategy?

Under the plans, the government will seek to give 500,000 more young people across England access to a trusted adult outside their homes – who are assigned through a formal programme – and online resources about staying safe.

The prime minister said the plans will also “ensure” that those who choose to do apprenticeships rather than go to university “will have the same respect and opportunity as everyone else”.

OTHER MEASURES INCLUDE

  • Creating 70 “young futures” hubs by March 2029, as part of a £70m programme to provide access to youth workers – the first eight of these will open by March next year;
  • Establishing a £60m Richer Young Lives fund to support organisations in “underserved” areas to deliver high-quality youth work and activities;
  • Improving wellbeing, personal development and life skills through a new £22.5m programme of support around the school day – which will operate in up to 400 schools;
  • Investing £15m to recruit and train youth workers, volunteers and “trusted adults”;
  • Improving youth services by putting £5m into local partnerships, information-sharing and digital tech.

The plan comes following a so-called “state of the nation” survey commissioned by Ms Nandy, which heard from more than 14,000 young people across England.

Launching the strategy, she said: “Young people have been crystal clear in speaking up in our consultation: they need support for their mental health, spaces to meet with people in their communities and real opportunities to thrive. We will give them what they want.”

Read more:
Child poverty strategy launched
Young people may lose benefits

Lisa Nandy will speak about the plan on Sky News on Wednesday morning. Pic: PA
Image:
Lisa Nandy will speak about the plan on Sky News on Wednesday morning. Pic: PA

But the Conservatives have criticised the government for scrapping the National Citizen Service (NCS), which ended in March this year.

Shadow culture secretary Nigel Huddlestone said “any renewed investment in youth services is of course welcome”, but said Labour’s “economic mismanagement and tax hikes are forcing businesses to close, shrinking opportunities while inflation continues to climb”.

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US bank regulator clears national banks to facilitate crypto transactions

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US bank regulator clears national banks to facilitate crypto transactions

The US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency has affirmed that national banks can intermediate cryptocurrency trades as riskless principals without holding the assets on their balance sheets, a move that brings traditional banks a step closer to offering regulated crypto brokerage services.

In an interpretive letter released on Tuesday, the regulator said banks may act as principals in a crypto trade with one customer while simultaneously entering an offsetting trade with another, a structure that mirrors riskless principal activity in traditional markets. 

“Several applicants have discussed how conducting riskless principal crypto-asset transactions would benefit their proposed bank’s customers and business, including by offering additional services in a growing market,” notes the document.

According to the OCC, the move would allow customers “to transact crypto-assets through a regulated bank, as compared to non-regulated or less regulated options.”

Banks, United States, Donald Trump
The OCC’s interpretive letter affirms that riskless principal crypto transactions fall within the “business of banking.” Source: US OCC

The letter also reiterates that banks must confirm the legal permissibility of any crypto activity and ensure it aligns with their chartered powers. Institutions are expected to maintain procedures for monitoring operational, compliance and market risks.

“The main risk in riskless principal transactions is counterparty credit risk (in particular, settlement risk),” reads the letter, adding that “managing counterparty credit risk is integral to the business of banking, and banks are experienced in managing this risk.”

The agency’s guidance cites 12 U.S.C. § 24, which permits national banks to conduct riskless principal transactions as part of the “business of banking.” The letter also draws a distinction between crypto assets that qualify as securities, noting that riskless principal transactions involving securities were already clearly permissible under existing law.

The OCC’s interpretive letter — a nonbinding guidance that outlines the agency’s view of which activities national banks may conduct under existing law — was issued a day after the head of the OCC, Jonathan Gould, said crypto firms seeking a federal bank charter should be treated the same as traditional financial institutions.

According to Gould, the banking system has the “capacity to evolve,” and there is “no justification for considering digital assets differently” than traditional banks, which have offered custody services “electronically for decades.”

Related: Trump’s national security strategy is silent on crypto, blockchain

From ‘Choke Point 2.0’ to pro-crypto policy

Under the Biden administration, some industry groups and lawmakers accused US regulators of pursuing an “Operation Choke Point 2.0” approach that increased supervisory pressure on banks and firms interacting with crypto.

Since President Trump took office in January after pledging to support the sector, the federal government has moved in the opposite direction, adopting a more permissive posture toward digital asset activity.

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