General Election 2024: Tory wipeout and 12 ministers at risk of losing seats, YouGov poll suggests
Labour could be on course to win a historic landslide, with the party expected to win a 194-seat majority, a YouGov poll shows.
It would be the highest number of seats of any party at any election since Stanley Baldwin won a majority of 208 in 1924.
Sky News has partnered with YouGov for the campaign and today we publish the first of their three polling projections, known as MRPs, which suggests the United Kingdom is on the cusp of a major redrawing of the political landscape.
The projection shows a historic Labour landslide, bigger than Tony Blair achieved in 1997.
It also projects a Tory wipeout in large parts of the country, a Lib Dem surge and the Scottish National Party losing over half its seats in Scotland, if the election were being held right now.
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The poll has Labour on 422 seats, up 222 compared to the 2019 results based on new constituency boundaries. This is the highest number of Labour seats on record, and a much bigger majority than anything else since the Second World War.
A 194 majority for Starmer would dwarf Mr Blair’s 1997 landslide majority of 179 and that of Margaret Thatcher, who got 144 in 1983.
The Conservatives would plummet to 140 seats, down 232 – as they face a near wipeout in London, the North East, the North West and Wales. This is the lowest since 1906 when they won 131 seats. This means the party retreats predominantly to the South East, South West and East Anglia.
This projection gives the Tories significantly fewer seats than the previous lowest number of Tory seats in British post-war history: 165 in 1997.
The Lib Dems would get 48 seats according to this projection, up 40 on 2019, quadrupling their seats and far higher than Lib Dem pollsters were predicting last year. This would mean Ed Davey’s party does not break records but takes them back to their previous levels of success under Lord Ashdown, who got 46 seats in 1997 and 62 under Charles Kennedy.
The SNP would get 17 of 57 seats in Scotland in this projection and down 31 seats on the notional 2019 results. This is the nationalist party’s lowest score this decade and well down from the peak of 56 out of 59 seats in 2015.
YouGov’s polling projection is based on interviews with 53,334 people in England and Wales and 5,541 in Scotland, with data collected between 24 May and 1 June.
This projection, which models how each individual constituency would vote, implies the following vote shares: Con 24.5%, Lab 42.9%, Lib Dem 10.6%, Reform 10.1%, Green 6.7%, SNP 2.8%, Plaid 0.7%, Others 1.7%.
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The scale of the rout under this projection means many of the Tories’ biggest cabinet figures are now under threat in this campaign.
Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, Penny Mordaunt, the Commons leader, Victoria Prentis, the attorney general, Alex Chalk, the justice secretary, David TC Davies, the Welsh secretary and Johnny Mercer, the armed forces minister in the cabinet are all on course to lose their seats under this projection.
Twelve of the 26 members of the cabinet who are running for re-election are at risk in total.
In addition, the future of Steve Baker, Northern Ireland minister, Bim Afolami, Economic Secretary to the Treasury, and housing minister Lee Rowley are all hanging in the balance, the projection suggests.
Twenty-two of the 45 ministers of the government confirmed to stand are at risk.
One member of Labour’s shadow cabinet is also at risk under this projection. The shadow culture secretary Thangham Debonnaire is fighting the Greens in her Bristol Central seat: YouGov says this seat is in the balance.
The nine largest US banks restricted financial services to politically contentious industries, including cryptocurrency, between 2020 and 2023, according to the preliminary findings of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC).
The banking regulator said on Wednesday that its early findings show that major banks “made inappropriate distinctions among customers in the provision of financial services on the basis of their lawful business activities” across the three-year period.
The banks either implemented policies restricting access to banking or required escalated reviews and approvals before giving financial services to certain customers, the OCC said, without giving specific details.
The OCC initiated its review after President Donald Trump signed an executive order in August, directing a review of whether banks had debanked or discriminated against individuals based on their political or religious beliefs.
Crypto issuers and exchanges caught in restrictions
The OCC’s report found that in addition to crypto, the sectors that faced banking restrictions included oil and gas exploration, coal mining, firearms, private prisons, tobacco and e-cigarette manufacturers and adult entertainment.
Banks’ actions toward crypto included restrictions on “issuers, exchanges, or administrators, often attributed to financial crime considerations,” the OCC said.
“It is unfortunate that the nation’s largest banks thought these harmful debanking policies were an appropriate use of their government-granted charter and market power,” said Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould.
“While many of these policies were undertaken in plain sight and even announced publicly, certain banks have continued to insist that they did not engage in debanking,” he added.
The OCC examined JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citibank, Wells Fargo, US Bank, Capital One, PNC Bank, TD Bank and BMO Bank, the largest national banks it regulates.
The OCC reported that it is continuing its investigation and could refer its findings to the Justice Department.
OCC debanking report leaves “much to be desired”
Nick Anthony, a policy analyst at libertarian think tank the Cato Institute, said in an emailed statement to Cointelegraph that the OCC’s report “leaves much to be desired” and didn’t mention “the most well-known causes of debanking.”
“The report criticizes banks for severing ties with controversial clients, but it fails to mention that regulators explicitly assess banks on their reputation,” he said.
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“Making matters worse, the report appears to blame banks for cutting ties with cryptocurrency companies, yet makes no mention of the fact that the [Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation] explicitly told banks to stay away from these companies,” Anthony added.
Republicans on the House Finance Committee reported earlier this month that the FDIC’s so-called “pause letters” it sent to banks under the Biden administration helped to spur “the debanking of the digital asset ecosystem.”
Caitlin Long, the founder and CEO of the crypto-focused Custodia Bank, said the “worst culprits” of crypto-related debanking under the Biden administration were the FDIC and Federal Reserve, “not OCC.”
“In OCC’s defense, this report covers large banks only. Crushing crypto wasn’t a supervisory priority for large banks like it was for small [and] mid-sized banks,” she added.
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Politics
Live music venues warn of ‘devastating consequences’ of budget tax changes in letter to Sir Keir Starmer
Tax changes announced in the budget could have “devastating, unintended consequences” on live music venues, including widespread closures and job losses, trade bodies have warned.
The bodies, representing nearly 1,000 live music venues, including grassroots sites as well as arenas such as the OVO Wembley Arena, The O2, and Co-op Live, are calling for an urgent rethink on the chancellor’s changes to the business rates system.
If not, they warn that hundreds of venues could close, ticket prices could increase, and thousands could lose their jobs across the country.
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Business rates, which are a tax on commercial properties in England and Wales, are calculated through a complex formula of the value of the property, assessed by a government agency every three years. That is then combined with a national “multiplier” set by the Treasury, giving a final cash amount.
The chancellor declared in her budget speech that although she is removing the business rates discount for small hospitality businesses, they would benefit from “permanently lower tax rates”. The burden, she said, would instead be shifted onto large companies with big spaces, such as Amazon.
But both small and large companies have seen the assessed values of their properties shoot up, which more than wipes out any discount on the tax rate for small businesses, and will see the bills of arena spaces increase dramatically.
In the letter, coordinated by Live, the trade bodies write that the effect of Rachel Reeves’s changes are “chilling”, saying: “Hundreds of grassroots music venues will close in the coming years as revaluations drive costs up. This will deprive communities of valuable cultural spaces and limit the UK creative sector’s potential. These venues are where artists like Ed Sheeran began their career.
“Ticket prices for consumers attending arena shows will increase as the dramatic rise in arena’s tax costs will likely trickle through to ticket prices, undermining the government’s own efforts to combat the cost of living crisis. Many of these arenas are seeing 100%+ increases in their business rates liability.
“Smaller arenas in towns and cities across the UK will teeter on the edge of closure, potentially resulting in thousands of jobs losses and hollowing out the cultural spaces that keep places thriving.”
The full letter from trade bodies to the prime minister.
They go on to warn that the government will “undermine its own Industrial Strategy and Creative Sector Plan which committed to reducing barriers to growth for live events”, and will also reduce spending in hotels, bars, restaurants and other high street businesses across the country.
To mitigate the impact of the tax changes, they are calling for an immediate 40% discount on business rates for live venues, in line with film studios, as well as “fundamental reform” to the system used to value commercial properties in the UK, and a “rapid inquiry” into how events spaces are valued.
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Sky’s Jess Sharp explains how the budget could impact your money
In response, a Treasury spokesperson told Sky News: “With Covid support ending and valuations rising, some music venues may face higher costs – so we have stepped in to cap bills with a £4.3bn support package and by keeping corporation tax at 25% – the lowest rate in the G7.
“For the music sector, we are also relaxing temporary admission rules to cut the cost of bringing in equipment for gigs, providing 40% orchestra tax relief for live concerts, and investing up to £10m to support venues and live music.”
The warning from the live music industry comes after small retail, hospitality and leisure businesses warned of the potential for widespread closures due to the changes to the business rates system.
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Sky’s political editor Beth Rigby challenged Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer on the tax rises in the budget.
Sky News reported after the budget that the increase in business rates over the next three years following vast increases in the assessed values of commercial properties has left small retail, hospitality and leisure businesses questioning whether their businesses will be viable beyond April next year.
Analysis by UK Hospitality, the trade body that represents hospitality businesses, has found that over the next three years, the average pub will pay an extra £12,900 in business rates, even with the transitional arrangements, while an average hotel will see its bill soar by £205,200.
Read more: Hospitality pleads for ‘lifeline’
A Treasury spokesperson said their cap for small businesses will see “a typical independent pub pay around £4,800 less next year than they otherwise would have”.
“This comes on top of cutting licensing costs to help more venues offer pavement drinks and al fresco dining, maintaining our cut to alcohol duty on draught pints, and capping corporation tax,” they added.
The Chancellor Rachel Reeves has acknowledged there were “too many leaks” in the run-up to last month’s budget.
The flow of budget content to news organisations was “very damaging”, Ms Reeves told MPs on the Treasury select committee on Wednesday.
“Leaks are unacceptable. The budget had too much speculation. There were too many leaks, and much of those leaks and speculation were inaccurate, very damaging”, she said.
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The cost of UK government borrowing briefly spiked after news reports that income taxes would not rise as first expected and Labour would not break its manifesto pledge.
An inquiry into the leaks from the Treasury to members of the media is to take place. But James Bowler, the Treasury’s top official, who was also giving evidence to MPs, would not say the results of it would be published.
Committee chair Dame Meg Hillier asked if the group of MPs could see the full inquiry.
“I’d have to engage with the people in the inquiry about the views on that”, replied Mr Bowler, permanent secretary to the Treasury.
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OBR leak ‘a mistake of such gravity’
The entire contents of the budget ended up being released 40 minutes early via independent forecasters, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
A report into this error found the OBR had uploaded documents containing their calculations of budget numbers to a link on the watchdog’s website it had mistakenly believed was inaccessible to the public.
Tax rises ruled out
The chancellor ruled out future revenue-raising measures, including applying capital gains tax to primary residences and changing the state pension triple.
Committee member and former chair Dame Harriet Baldwin had noted that the chancellor’s previous statement to the MPs when she said she would not overhaul council tax and look at road pricing, turned out to be inaccurate.
During the budget, an electric vehicle charge per mile was introduced, as was an additional council tax for those with properties worth £2m or more.
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