Connect with us

Published

on

Labour could be on course to win a historic landslide, with the party expected to win a 194-seat majority, a YouGov poll shows.

It would be the highest number of seats of any party at any election since Stanley Baldwin won a majority of 208 in 1924.

Sky News has partnered with YouGov for the campaign and today we publish the first of their three polling projections, known as MRPs, which suggests the United Kingdom is on the cusp of a major redrawing of the political landscape.

The projection shows a historic Labour landslide, bigger than Tony Blair achieved in 1997.

It also projects a Tory wipeout in large parts of the country, a Lib Dem surge and the Scottish National Party losing over half its seats in Scotland, if the election were being held right now.

Election latest: Farage announces he will stand

The poll has Labour on 422 seats, up 222 compared to the 2019 results based on new constituency boundaries. This is the highest number of Labour seats on record, and a much bigger majority than anything else since the Second World War.

YouGov MRP poll for Sky News suggests that there are no safe Tory seats remaining

A 194 majority for Starmer would dwarf Mr Blair’s 1997 landslide majority of 179 and that of Margaret Thatcher, who got 144 in 1983.

The Conservatives would plummet to 140 seats, down 232 – as they face a near wipeout in London, the North East, the North West and Wales. This is the lowest since 1906 when they won 131 seats. This means the party retreats predominantly to the South East, South West and East Anglia.

This projection gives the Tories significantly fewer seats than the previous lowest number of Tory seats in British post-war history: 165 in 1997.

The Lib Dems would get 48 seats according to this projection, up 40 on 2019, quadrupling their seats and far higher than Lib Dem pollsters were predicting last year. This would mean Ed Davey’s party does not break records but takes them back to their previous levels of success under Lord Ashdown, who got 46 seats in 1997 and 62 under Charles Kennedy.

The SNP would get 17 of 57 seats in Scotland in this projection and down 31 seats on the notional 2019 results. This is the nationalist party’s lowest score this decade and well down from the peak of 56 out of 59 seats in 2015.

YouGov’s polling projection is based on interviews with 53,334 people in England and Wales and 5,541 in Scotland, with data collected between 24 May and 1 June.

This projection, which models how each individual constituency would vote, implies the following vote shares: Con 24.5%, Lab 42.9%, Lib Dem 10.6%, Reform 10.1%, Green 6.7%, SNP 2.8%, Plaid 0.7%, Others 1.7%.

YouGov MRP suggests that the Conservatives will lose 19 points on the 2019 result

Read more on the election:
General Election poll tracker
Warning over risk of audio deepfakes that could derail election
Tories could tumble but there’s no mad enthusiasm for Labour

The scale of the rout under this projection means many of the Tories’ biggest cabinet figures are now under threat in this campaign.

Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, Penny Mordaunt, the Commons leader, Victoria Prentis, the attorney general, Alex Chalk, the justice secretary, David TC Davies, the Welsh secretary and Johnny Mercer, the armed forces minister in the cabinet are all on course to lose their seats under this projection.

Twelve of the 26 members of the cabinet who are running for re-election are at risk in total.

In addition, the future of Steve Baker, Northern Ireland minister, Bim Afolami, Economic Secretary to the Treasury, and housing minister Lee Rowley are all hanging in the balance, the projection suggests.

Twenty-two of the 45 ministers of the government confirmed to stand are at risk.

One member of Labour’s shadow cabinet is also at risk under this projection. The shadow culture secretary Thangham Debonnaire is fighting the Greens in her Bristol Central seat: YouGov says this seat is in the balance.

What is an MRP poll?

You might come across the term MRP quite a lot in the coming weeks as we head towards the general election on 4 July.

An MRP poll – which stands for multilevel regression and post-stratification – is a type of poll that gets pundits excited because it draws from large amounts of data, including a large sample size and additional information like locations.

MRP polls first ask a large representative sample of people how they will vote. They then use that information of how different groups say they will vote combined with information about the sorts of people who live in different constituencies. This allows the pollster to estimate how people will vote in each constituency across the country – even when they may have surveyed just a few people, or even none, in some places.

This can then be broken down into smaller groups to see how voters in different areas say they plan to vote. Rather than making more generalised assumptions that everyone behaves the same way in different constituencies, it takes into account the fact that every constituency is its own race and local issues and trends may be at play.

What MRP can’t do is account for very specific local factors – such as a hospital or large employer closing down in a constituency, or a scandal relating to a particular candidate.

It still involves a lot of assumptions and estimates – and some races are too close to call with any level of certainty. It also only gives a snapshot of people’s opinions, and a lot can change over the course of an election campaign. However, it does give us a more nuanced idea about what the general election result could be than other more generic polls.

Continue Reading

Politics

US DOJ requests 20-year sentence for Celsius founder Alex Mashinsky

Published

on

By

US DOJ requests 20-year sentence for Celsius founder Alex Mashinsky

US DOJ requests 20-year sentence for Celsius founder Alex Mashinsky

Alex Mashinsky, the founder and former CEO of the now-defunct cryptocurrency lending platform Celsius, faces a 20-year prison sentence as the US Department of Justice (DOJ) is seeking a severe penalty for his fraudulent activity.

The US DOJ on April 28 filed the government’s sentencing memorandum against Mashinsky, recommending a 20-year prison sentence due to his fraudulent actions leading to multibillion-dollar losses by Celsius customers.

The 97-page memo mentioned that Celsius users were unable to access approximately $4.7 billion in crypto assets after the platform halted withdrawals on June 12, 2022.

“The Court should sentence Alexander Mashinsky to twenty years’ imprisonment as just punishment for his years-long campaign of lies and self-dealing that left in its wake billions in losses and thousands of victimized customers,” the DOJ stated.

Mashinsky’s personal benefit was $48 million

In addition to listing massive investor losses resulting from the Celsius fraud, the DOJ mentioned that Mashinsky has personally profited from the fraudulent schemes in his role.

As part of his plea in December 2024, Mashinsky admitted that he was the leader of the criminal activity at Celsius, that his crimes resulted in losses in excess of $550 million, and that he personally benefited more than $48 million, the authority said.

US DOJ requests 20-year sentence for Celsius founder Alex Mashinsky
An excerpt from the government’s sentencing memorandum against Celsius founder Alex Mashinsky. Source: CourtListener

The DOJ emphasized that Mashinsky’s guilty plea showed that his crimes were “not the product of negligence, naivete, or bad luck,” but rather the result of “deliberate, calculated decisions to lie, deceive, and steal in pursuit of personal fortune.”

This is a developing story, and further information will be added as it becomes available.

Magazine: Bitcoin $100K hopes on ice, SBF’s mysterious prison move: Hodler’s Digest, April 20 – 26

Continue Reading

Politics

Russian ruble stablecoin: Exec lists 7 ‘Tether replica’ features

Published

on

By

Russian ruble stablecoin: Exec lists 7 ‘Tether replica’ features

Russian ruble stablecoin: Exec lists 7 ‘Tether replica’ features

The concept of a Russian ruble stablecoin received special attention at a major local crypto event, the Blockchain Forum in Moscow, with key industry executives reflecting on some of the core features a ruble-backed stablecoin might require.

Sergey Mendeleev, founder of the digital settlement exchange Exved and inactive founder of the sanctioned Garantex exchange, put forward seven key criteria for a potential “replica of Tether” in a keynote at the Blockchain Forum on April 23.

Mendeleev said a potential ruble stablecoin must have untraceable transactions and allow transfers without Know Your Customer (KYC) checks.

However, because one of the criteria also requires the stablecoin to comply with Russian regulations, he expressed skepticism that such a product could emerge soon.

The DAI model praised 

Mendeleev proposed that a potential Russian “Tether replica” must be overcollateralized similarly to the Dai (DAI) stablecoin model, a decentralized algorithmic stablecoin that maintains its one-to-one peg with the US dollar using smart contracts.

“So, any person who buys it will understand that the contract is based on the assets that super-securitize it, not somewhere on some unknown accounts, but free to be checked by simple crypto methods,” he said.

Russian ruble stablecoin: Exec lists 7 ‘Tether replica’ features
Source: Cointelegraph

Another must-have feature should be excess liquidity on both centralized and decentralized exchanges, Mendeleev said, adding that users must be able to exchange the stablecoin at any time they need.

According to Mendeleev, a viable ruble-pegged stablecoin also needs to offer non-KYC transactions, so users are not required to pass their data to start using it.

“The Russian ruble stablecoin should have the opportunity where people use it without disclosing their data,” he stated.

Related: Russia’s central bank, finance ministry to launch crypto exchange

In the meantime, users should be able to earn interest on holding the stablecoin, Mendelev continued, adding that offering this feature is available via smart contracts.

Russia opts for centralization

Mendeleev also suggested that a potential Russian version of Tether’s USDt (USDT) would need to feature untraceable and cheap transactions, while its smart contracts should not enable blocks or freezes.

The final criterion is that a potential ruble stablecoin would have to be regulated in accordance with the Russian legislation, which currently doesn’t look promising, according to Mendeleev.

Russia, KYC, Fiat Money, Tether, Stablecoin, Policy
Sergey Mendeleev at the Blockchain Forum in Moscow. Source: Bits.Media

“Once we put these seven points together […] then it would be a real alternative, which would help us at least compete with the solutions that are currently on the market,” he stated at the conference, adding:

“Unfortunately, from the point of view of regulation, we are currently going in the absolutely opposite direction […] We are going in the direction of absolute centralization, not in the direction of liberalization of laws, but consolidation of prohibitions.”

Possible solutions

While the regulatory side is not looking good, a potential Russian version of USDT is technically feasible, Mendeleev told Cointelegraph.

“Except for anonymous transactions, everything is easy to implement and has already been deployed by several projects, but it’s just not unified in one project yet,” he said.

The crypto advocate specifically referred to interesting opportunities by projects like the ruble-pegged A7A5 stablecoin, unblockable contracts at DAI, and others.

Related: Russian crypto exchange Mosca raided amid cash-to-crypto ban talks

Regulation is necessary but not enough, Mendeleev said, adding that the most difficult part is the trust of users who must see the ruble stablecoin as a viable alternative to major alternatives like USDT.

Recent reports suggest that the deputy head of Russia’s Finance Ministry’s financial policy department urged the government to develop ruble stablecoins.

Elsewhere, the Bank of Russia has continued to progress its central bank digital currency project, the digital ruble. According to Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, the digital ruble is scheduled to be rolled out for commercial banks in the second half of 2025.

Magazine: Bitcoin $100K hopes on ice, SBF’s mysterious prison move: Hodler’s Digest, April 20 – 26

Continue Reading

Politics

Trump or Carney – will Starmer have to choose?

Published

on

By

Trump or Carney – will Starmer have to choose?

👉Listen to Politics at Sam and Anne’s on your podcast app👈

The morning political podcast which gives you all need for the day ahead in 20 minutes, usually with Sky News’ Sam Coates and Politico’s Anne McElvoy.

But, for this episode, Anne is somewhere over the Atlantic travelling back from the US so Sam is joined by Politico’s Tim Ross.

Mark Carney’s Liberal Party has won the Canadian election. It’ll give Keir Starmer a centre-left ally at G7 but how will the PM position himself now in the Trump-Carney standoff?

Elsewhere, with political leaders out and about in Bristol, Scunthorpe, South Cambridgeshire and Wiltshire – there are plenty of clues about the biggest target seats in the last 48 hours before local election voting.

To find lists of candidates in all the local elections, you can search here: https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/voter/your-election-information

Continue Reading

Trending