Claudia Sheinbaum is set to become Mexico’s first woman president after she was projected to have won the country’s election.
The ruling party candidate, 61, had between 58.3% and 60.7% of the vote – an unassailable lead, a statistical sample showed, according to the National Electoral Institute, which is responsible for organising federal elections in Mexico.
Opposition candidate Xochitl Galvez, a female rival who is also 61, received 26.6%-28.6%, while Jorge Alvarez Maynez, 38, picked up 9.9%-10.8%.
Speaking outside a hotel in the capital Mexico City, Morena candidate Ms Sheinbaum said: “For the first time in the 200 years of the republic, I will become the first woman president of Mexico.”
She said her two competitors had called her and conceded she had won.
The climate scientist, who is a former Mexico City mayor, campaigned on continuing the political course set over the last six years by her mentor, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who was elected in 2018.
His popularity among the poor helped drive her triumph at the ballot box.
In her victory speech, Ms Sheinbaum thanked Mr Lopez Obrador, describing him as “a unique person who has transformed our country for the better”.
She has vowed to carry on with his policies, including a universal pension for the elderly and a programme paying youths to undertake apprenticeships.
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Ms Sheinbaum said: “We will dedicate public funds to continue the president’s social programmes.”
She also said there would be a “friendly relationship” with the United States, adding “we will always defend Mexicans” in the US.
Image: Claudia Sheinbaum is a former Mexico City mayor. Pic: AP
Ms Sheinbaum will have to balance promises to increase popular welfare policies while inheriting a large budget deficit and low economic growth.
The ruling coalition was also on track for a possible two-thirds super majority in both houses of Congress, which would allow the coalition to pass constitutional reforms without opposition support, according to results from the electoral authority.
Mexico’s election was its biggest ever, with more than 20,000 congressional and local positions up for grabs, according to the National Electoral Institute.
Image: Opposition presidential candidate Xochitl Galvez has conceded. Pic: AP
Image: Jorge Alvarez Maynez was set to come third in the election. Pic: AP
Ms Sheinbaum has vowed to improve security but has given few details, and analysts said organised crime groups expanded and deepened their influence during Mr Lopez Obrador’s term.
More than 185,000 people have been killed during his rule – more than during any other administration in Mexico’s modern history, although the homicide rate has been edging down.
The country’s constitution prohibits the president from being re-elected.
Ms Sheinbaum, who is Jewish, is the first woman to win a general election in the US, Mexico or Canada.
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Mexico is home to the world’s second-biggest Roman Catholic population, which for years pushed more traditional values and roles for women.
“I never imagined that one day I would vote for a woman,” said 87-year-old Edelmira Montiel, a Sheinbaum supporter in Mexico’s smallest state Tlaxcala.
“Before we couldn’t even vote, and when you could, it was to vote for the person your husband told you to vote for. Thank God that has changed and I get to live it,” she added.
In a carefully written post on social media platform Telegram, Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused the Russian army of deploying Chinese citizens on the battlefield in eastern Ukraine.
What about the proof? Well, the Ukrainian president says his security services captured two people from China in the Donetsk region – along with identity documents, personal data and their bank cards.
A video of a man in military fatigues who had been captured by Ukraine was pinned to the bottom of the statement.
We get snippets of a conversation where the alleged combatant seems to be talking about the events that led to his capture.
“When we arrived at the place… and then my commander.” The man gestures at the floor and ceiling, making shooting noises. “I was also injured.”
Image: Volodymyr Zelenskyy uploaded a video appearing to show a Chinese citizen in military uniform in Ukrainian custody
These details will make it difficult for the Chinese government to deny the incident out of hand, although they are highly unlikely to supply additional information.
Important details like, who are they? What function(s) do they fulfil in Ukraine’s occupied territories?
Were they volunteers – or mercenaries – who had signed up to fight in the Russian army on their own?
Alternatively, does the Chinese government sanction their involvement – or even encourage it?
The capture of these Chinese nationals in Donetsk begs another question – how many Chinese are actually fighting for Russia? In his post, Mr Zelenskyy said “there are many more Chinese citizens” other than these two.
Still, the Ukrainian president works hard to suggest the Chinese, officially at least, are blameless.
“Russia’s involvement of China in this war… is a clear signal that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin is going to do anything but end the war,” he writes on Telegram.
This is a generous interpretation of China’s approach to the conflict, which is quite openly contradictory.
On one hand, Chinese President Xi Jinping describes China as a neutral party to the conflict, while simultaneously offering Mr Putin long-term political and economic support.
In fact, he described their partnership as a “no limits” one in a phone call with Mr Putin on the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Mr Zelenskyy then, is making a point with this post – but he does not want to make the situation any worse.
The severity cannot be overstated, if an additional 50% tariffs are levied on all Chinese goods it will decimate trade between the world’s two biggest economies.
Remember, 50% would sit on top of what is already on the table: 34% announced last week, 20% announced at the start of US President Donald Trump’s term, and some additional tariffs left over from his first term in office.
In total, it means all Chinese goods would face tariffs of over 100%, some as high as 120%.
It’s a price that makes any trade almost impossible.
China is really the only nation in the world at the moment that is choosing to take a stand.
While others are publicly making concessions and sending delegations to negotiate, China has clearly calculated that not being seen to be bullied is worth the cost that retaliation will bring.
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6:50
Tariffs: Xi hits back at Trump
The real question, though, is if the US does indeed impose this extra 50% tomorrow, what could or would China do next?
There are some obvious measures that China will almost certainly enact.
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Further export controls on rare earth minerals (crucial for the development of high-tech products) are one example. China controls a huge proportion of the world’s supply, but the US would likely find workarounds in time.
Hiking tariffs on high-impact US products such as agricultural goods is another option, but there is only so far this could go.
The potentially more impactful options have significant drawbacks for Beijing.
It could, for instance, target high-profile American companies such as Apple and Tesla, but this isn’t ideal at a time when China is trying to attract more foreign investment, and some devaluation of the currency is possible, but it would also come with adverse effects.
Other options are more political and come with the risk of escalation beyond the economic arena.
In an opinion piece this morning, the editor of Xinhua, China’s state news agency, speculated that China could cease all cooperation with the US on the war against fentanyl.
This has been a major political issue for Mr Trump, and it’s hard to see it would not constitute some sort of red line for him.
Other options touted include banning the import of American films, or perhaps calling for the Chinese public to boycott all American products.
Anything like this comes with a sense that the world’s two most powerful superpowers might be teetering on the edge of not just a total economic decoupling, but cultural separation too.
There is understandably serious nervousness about how that could spiral and the precedent it sets.
South Korea’s military said its soldiers fired warning shots at North Korean troops who crossed the demarcation line between the two countries.
Around 10 North Korean soldiers violated the military line on Tuesday, but returned after it made warning broadcasts and fired warning shots, South Korea’s military said.
In a text sent to reporters, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), said “North Korean soldiers crossed the military demarcation line (MDL) in the eastern area of the demilitarised zone (DMZ) around 5:00 pm local time.
Image: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, centre left in a black jacket, stands by what appeared to be a large reconnaissance drone at an undisclosed North Korean location. File pic: AP
“Our military is closely monitoring the North Korean military’s activity and taking necessary measures according to the operational procedures.”
Some of the North Korean soldiers were armed, according to the South Korean military.
There is no clear motive for the crossing, but tensions between the two countries have been running high as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un continues to order missile tests and align with Russia over President Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine.
North Korean special operations units are among the thousands of troops that Pyongyang has sent to Russia to fight in the Ukraine war, according to South Korea.
In January, Pyongyang tested a hypersonic missile of intermediate range, in a sign of its determination to continue its weapons development programme.
Bloodshed and violent confrontations have occasionally occurred at the Koreas’ heavily fortified border, called the Demilitarised Zone, or DMZ.
But when North Korean troops briefly violated the border in June last year, it didn’t escalate as South Korean officials realised they were carrying construction tools and decided the incursion was accidental.
The 155-mile (249km)-long, 2.5-mile (4km)-wide DMZ is the world’s most heavily armed border.