Don’t be led by what appears to be obvious.

The Mamdani victory is historic for him, a dreamy American journey for an immigrant rising to the top, and, along with the governor victories in New Jersey and Virginia, it undoubtedly represents a gear shift for the Democrats who have been lost in a Trumpian vortex since Joe Biden’s disastrous presidential debate 18 months ago.

All of this is true. And in that sense, it was of course a very good night for the Democratic Party. Winning is clearly better than losing.

But what if Mamdani is actually a poison chalice for the Democrats? They are drinking this socialist’s champagne now because they finally have some momentum.

But he isn’t a champagne socialist. He is a purist socialist; proudly one.

Explainer: Who is Zohran Mamdani?

With his skilful communication skills and his apparent authenticity, he has energised New York City. And no wonder. The alternative was the flawed, compromised Andrew Cuomo. Mamdani offered hope for a deeply liberal city that’s lost in Trump World.

Trump endorsed Cuomo not because he agrees with Mamdani’s own tagline: “I am Trump’s worst nightmare…”

Trump endorsed Cuomo because he knew that it would probably increase Mamdani’s share of the vote – and it did.

Why would Trump do this? Maybe because he thinks Mamdani is the perfect foil for him.

What Trump can get out of apparent defeat

Mamdani’s victory gives Trump and his allies two things.

First, they can sit back and watch the Democrats squabble about whether Mamdani’s leftward Democratic socialism is the future of their party. And be in no doubt, they will.

Second, they can warn centrists and right-leaning folk: ‘Look, the Democrats really are socialists…’. The president continues to frame him as a “communist”.

The Democrats may choose the Mamdani lane and stick with it, especially if he is successful in New York. But the Big Apple is not remotely representative of America.

Beyond New York City, Mamdani is, history would suggest, off the spectrum when it comes to electable Democratic Party candidates – America remains a conservative society; political spectrums here naturally tack right.

Team Trump knows all this, so they’ll relish the prospect of the Democratic Party machine (which has form in picking the wrong candidate) being lured by Mamdani-mania.

Cost of living a key issue

Beyond that, there is a vital takeaway for Trump from this mini and not wholly representative referendum on his presidency so far.

Many ordinary Americans are still hurting economically, big time.

The Democrats won in New York, New Jersey and Virginia because their candidates all focused on kitchen table issues.

The president clearly recognises this, to an extent. “Day by day, we’re going to make America affordable again,” he said after the Mamdani victory.

But he was speaking not to the people who are feeling the squeeze. Instead, he chose to mark a year since he was elected with a speech to a wealthy business crowd in Miami. Safe crowd, safe state, safe space.

JD Vance’s telling reaction

Maybe the most telling thing to come out of the past 24 hours in American politics was from the vice president.

In a social media post, JD Vance first warned followers not to overreact to the results.

He then went on to offer his own notable interpretation of the Democratic Party victories.

“We need to focus on the home front.” he wrote. “The president has done a lot that has already paid off in lower interest rates and lower inflation, but we inherited a disaster from Joe Biden and Rome wasn’t built in a day.

“We’re going to keep on working to make a decent life affordable in this country, and that’s the metric by which we’ll ultimately be judged in 2026 and beyond.”

Read more: Mamdani can’t expect easy wins

My interpretation of his interpretation?

Two points: first, that Vance thinks that Trump needs to get back to his base. Ten months of presidential jet-setting and global-conflict-solving may have been necessary, but it won’t spell victory in the midterms next year or beyond.

The second point – Vance is so clearly in it for the long game. The “beyond” he talks about has him at its centre.

I’m not sure Vance would have chosen a Miami arena full of business leaders to mark a year since the election. The business and investment community is happy and wealthy.

I think Vance would have been with the other America, where people are feeling the squeeze still.

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Trump continues to talk about the economy being “Biden’s economy”. Vance seems to be hinting at the inevitable – that at some point they need to own it and to fix it. They need to make people feel better off.

Vance wants to run and to win in 2028, and that fight begins now.

Police are preparing for a surge in crime if the government’s plans to overhaul prison sentences go ahead – with hundreds of thousands more offences expected in a year.

Measures proposed under the Sentencing Bill, intended to ease overcrowding in prisons, include limiting the use of short sentences and releasing some criminals earlier.

However, police chiefs are warning such measures could see up to a 6% rise in crime in the immediate aftermath, should the plans become law.

It comes as a manhunt is under way for two prisoners mistakenly released from HMP Wandsworth, including Brahim Kaddour-Cherif, a 24-year-old Algerian man and registered sex offender, and 35-year-old William Smith.

‘It has to be properly funded’

Assistant Chief Constable Jason Devonport, who spent 18 months on secondment as a governor at HMP Berwyn, said forces are planning for an increase in all types of offences.

While he said community programmes to support rehabilitation “are being ramped up,” he warned officers “expect, certainly in the short term, there will be an increase of offending in the community”.

“I believe in the Sentencing Bill and I believe in rehabilitation,” he added, “but it has to be properly funded.”

ACC Devonport said the probation service is trying to recruit 1,500 officers a year for the next three years to manage demand, and that the rise in police-recorded crime in one year is expected to be between 4% and 6%.

In the year to June 2025, police in England and Wales recorded 6.6 million offences. A rise of 6% would then equal around 396,000 additional recorded crimes.

Gavin Stephens, chairman of the National Police Chiefs’ Council, added that officers have “all been in policing long enough to know that some of the things that help people stop offending or desist from offending are not going to be resolved by short sentences in particular”.

However, he added: “Our issue is in the short-term period of the implementation, there is a shift of demand on to policing, and we want that shift of demand on to us to be properly recognised and properly modelled… so we can have the right and appropriate resource in there to mitigate the risk to communities.”

Feeble and inept – prison release fiasco is yet another political crisis

Jon Craig

Chief political correspondent

@joncraig

The charitable view of the latest prison release blunder that has plunged the government into another political crisis is that it’s extremely bad luck rather than an act of incompetence by ministers.

But the more we learn about the shocking details of what happened and what looks like a cynical attempt at a cover-up by the hapless David Lammy, the more the blame can be laid at the government’s door.

Tap here to read more

More mistaken releases inevitable, MP warns

In a further warning about the state of law and order in the UK, the chair of the Justice Committee has said the prison system is at “breaking point”.

Labour MP Andy Slaughter called the latest mistaken releases “extremely concerning,” adding: “While the day to day running of prison security and public safety are paramount, the current spate of releases in error will be repeated until the underlying failures are addressed.”

He also said evidence taken by the committee “laid bare a crisis-hit prison system, starved of investment over many years which is facing multi-faceted pressures”.

What do we know about the manhunt?

HMP Wandsworth admitted on Wednesday that Kaddour-Cherif, sentenced for trespass with an intent to steal, was accidentally released on 29 October.

His release came just five days after the high-profile release of migrant sex offender Hadush Kebatu from HMP Chelmsford in Essex.

Hours after Kaddour-Cherif’s accidental release was confirmed by the Met, Surrey Police announced it was also searching for Smith after another error by prison staff.

The 35-year-old, who was sentenced to 45 months for multiple fraud offences and goes by the name Billy, had apparently been released on Monday.

It is not yet clear why it was nearly a week between the first release at Wandsworth and the police being informed that an offender was at large.

Both mistakes follow vows by Deputy Prime Minister and Justice Secretary David Lammy that enhanced checks on prisoner releases would be introduced.

He came under fire while standing in for Sir Keir Starmer at PMQs, but sought to blame the Conservatives, saying: “In 25 years in this House, I have not witnessed a more shameful spectacle frankly than what the party opposite left in our justice system.”

News of Kaddour-Cherif’s release broke as PMQs was ending, and a comment released on Mr Lammy’s behalf said he was “absolutely outraged” about it.

He had been repeatedly asked whether any more asylum seekers had been mistakenly released from jail since the Kebatu case, and refused to answer.

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In response to concerns of a spike in crime should the Sentencing Bill become law, a Ministry of Justice spokesperson said the government “inherited a prison system in crisis, days away from running out of space”.

“Public safety will always be our top priority, and we are building 14,000 more prison places to keep dangerous offenders locked up,” they added.

“Offenders released face strict licence conditions, and we are increasing the probation budget by an extra £700 million over the next three years and investing in new technology to reduce admin, so staff can focus on work that reduces reoffending.”

And in response to the manhunt for the two released convicts, a spokesperson said: “Releases in error have been increasing for several years and are another symptom of a justice system crisis inherited by this government.”

They added: “We are clear that these mistakes must not continue to happen.”

Prince William has praised environmental innovators as the “world’s true action heroes”, describing them as the role models we need “in these uncertain times” at his Earthshot awards in Rio.

Joined on stage by four young people from Brazil at his annual ceremony, William explained his motivation to set up the prize, saying of the finalists: “Their stories are the inspiration that gives us courage.”

“And there’s a great deal we can learn from their determination and their vision for scale,” he added.

“As well as their unyielding belief that we can create a better world. It’s no exaggeration to say that they are the world’s true action heroes.”

For the fifth year of his environmental prize, which sees five innovators or entrepreneurs awarded £1m each, he was joined by singers Kylie Minogue and Shawn Mendes performing at the ceremony.

Speaking to Sky News ahead of her performance, Kylie hailed the awards as an “incredible initiative”.

“I’m really excited to see everyone,” she told Sky News. “There’s amazing people doing incredible things, so it’s good to be here.”

‘When we unite, we are unstoppable’

While the awards have been his focus for the first three days of his trip to Brazil, he will travel to Belem tomorrow for COP30, the UN’s climate conference.

Acknowledging the sense of pessimism around the climate debate, exacerbated by recent global turbulence he said: “I understand some might feel discouraged in these uncertain times.

“I understand there is still so much to be done. But this is no time for complacency, and the optimism I felt in 2020 remains ardent today.”

In a call to action, he added: “The issues that continue to face our world are a threat to all of us, but when we unite, our momentum is unstoppable.”

He then called on the young people, part of the Mini COP programme, to tell the audience their hopes for the future.

Earlier in the day, the prince had spoken at another Earthshot event about how he does everything he can to reassure his own children that the planet will be looked after.

The spectacular show, also featuring some of Brazil’s biggest stars, was designed to hook in a global and multigenerational audience.

Fortunately for Prince William and his team, it also hasn’t been overshadowed this week by any significant new developments or revelations about his uncle Andrew, who only a week ago was stripped of his remaining honours and titles, and it was announced he would also be moving out of his home Royal Lodge on the Windsor estate.