Connect with us

Published

on

The findings of the SkyNews/YouGov MRP poll are a disaster for the Conservatives, a worry for Labour and good news for the Lib Dems and Reform UK.

The forecast of a Tory near wipeout will spread panic among Conservative candidates and potentially spark a fresh bout of mutiny against Rishi Sunak from the right of his party.

Politics live: Farage makes ’emergency’ election announcement

For Labour, the suggestion that Sir Keir Starmer is heading for a landslide even bigger than Tony Blair won in 1997 will alarm those in the party already fearing complacency.

But for the Lib Dems, the projection that Sir Ed Davey’s party is heading for a result to match the heady days of Paddy Ashdown and Charles Kennedy will be a massive confidence boost.

However, the party that will be really delighted is Reform UK – already newly energised with Nigel Farage replacing Richard Tice as leader – who will claim that with Labour on course to win, Tory supporters can vote for them.

There will also be consternation in the Tory high command at the forecast that so many of the party’s big beasts – led by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt – are at risk of losing their seat.

More on Conservatives

Mr Hunt is fighting the new constituency of Godalming and Ash – in his favour it’s in a part of the affluent Surrey stockbroker belt represented by Conservative MPs since 1910.

But the cabinet minsters who are vulnerable are in seats held by Labour in the Blair and Brown years or the Liberal Democrats in the Ashdown, Kennedy or Nick Clegg years.

Grant Shapps’ Welwyn Hatfield seat was Labour from 1974 to 1979 and then from 1997 to 2005, when the current defence secretary captured it from Labour.

Commons leader Penny Mordaunt’s Portsmouth North constituency has been a bellwether seat since it was created in 1974 and she won it from Labour in 2010.

Justice Secretary Alex Chalk is defending a slender 981 majority over the Liberal Democrats in Cheltenham – a seat the LibDems held from 1992 until 2015.

YouGov MRP suggests that the Conservatives will lose 19 points on the 2019 result

But what of Reform UK, with the flamboyant Mr Farage back as leader, taking part in TV debates and so becoming a nightly presence in voters’ living rooms?

The poll suggests the party won’t win any seats and in Clacton Mr Farage is fighting a pretty huge Tory majority of 24,702 won by the former TV actor Giles Watling.

The YouGov projection suggests Hartlepool, held by the Tories since a 2021 by-election in which Jill Mortimer won a majority over Labour of 6,940 votes, is Reform UK’s best prospect.

That may change now that Mr Farage is standing in Clacton – a seat where Tory defector Douglas Carswell won a by-election for UKIP in 2014 and held it in the 2015 general election.

? Tap here to follow Politics at Jack at Sam’s wherever you get your podcasts ?

As ever with polls predicting a Labour landslide, there will be a large degree of scepticism. After all, when Mr Blair won a 179-seat majority in 1997, John Major’s 21-seat 1992 majority had all but disappeared.

Boris Johnson won an 80-seat majority in 2019 and Sky News election guru Professor Michael Thrasher estimates that with boundary changes the Tories’ notional majority is 94.

But not only are these poll findings stunning, the 42.9% predicted for Labour is slightly less than the 45% and 46% in some recent opinion polls.

There’s still a month until polling day on 4 July. Governing parties behind in the polls usually close the gap on their opponents during election campaigns.

But in this election, that’s not happening yet.

Continue Reading

Politics

Sir Keir Starmer ‘absolutely’ wants Angela Rayner back in cabinet

Published

on

By

Sir Keir Starmer 'absolutely' wants Angela Rayner back in cabinet

Sir Keir Starmer has said he “absolutely” wants Angela Rayner back in his cabinet after she resigned for failing to pay the correct amount of stamp duty.

Speaking from the G20 Summit in South Africa, the prime minister told broadcasters his former deputy is “the best example ever” of social mobility and he is still in touch with her.

Asked if she could make a comeback this side of a general election, Sir Keir said: “I’ve always said I want Angela back. Even back in September at the time I said she is going to be a big voice in the Labour movement.

“Do I want Angela back at some stage? Yes absolutely.

“I think she is the best example ever in the United Kingdom of social mobility – going from a pretty challenging childhood to being deputy prime minister of the United Kingdom. She is the story of social mobility above all other stories.”

Asked if he missed having her around, Sir Keir said: “I’m friends with Angie and I like Angie a lot and we talk a lot. We still do.

“It’s always good to have Angela.”

More on Labour

Ms Rayner’s meteoric rise to the top of Labour came after she left school aged 16, pregnant and with no qualifications.

She was elected deputy Labour leader by the membership in 2020, and was made deputy prime minister then housing secretary by Sir Keir.

She resigned from all of those positions in September, after it emerged she had not paid the higher rate of stamp duty on a second home she bought in Hove, East Sussex, saving her about £40k.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Rayner admits she didn’t pay enough tax

It followed a tearful interview with Sky’s political editor Beth Rigby about the “complex living arrangement” regarding her first home, which was sold to a trust following her divorce to provide stability for her teenage son, who has lifelong disabilities and is the sole beneficiary of the trust.

An investigation by the prime minister ethic’s watchdog found she breached the ministerial code by failing to get correct tax advice, but that she acted “with integrity”.

Ms Rayner is still a backbench MP and recently did not rule out a return to the front bench herself – telling the Daily Mirror during a visit to a care centre in her constituency that she had “not gone away”.

Other cabinet ministers have also supported her return.

During the Labour Party Conference a few weeks after she resigned, Health Secretary Wes Streeting paid tribute to her work on the Employment Rights Bill and said Labour “wants her back and needs her back”.

Continue Reading

Politics

Rachel Reeves vows to ‘grip the cost of living’ – despite expectation of tax rises in budget

Published

on

By

Rachel Reeves vows to 'grip the cost of living' - despite expectation of tax rises in budget

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has promised to “grip the cost of living” in the budget next week.

Writing in The Mirror newspaper, she acknowledged that high prices “hit ordinary families most” and that the economy “feels stuck” for too many.

But at the same time, she is expected to raise taxes when she sets out economic policies on 26 November as she seeks to bridge a multibillion-pound gap in her spending plans.

“Delivering on our promise to make people better off is not possible if we don’t get a grip on inflation,” Ms Reeves wrote in The Sunday Times.

“It is a fundamental precursor to economic growth. It is essential to make families better off and for businesses to thrive.

“There is an urgent need to ease the pressure on households now. It will require direct action by this government to get inflation under control.”

She said reforms would change the welfare system from “trapping millions of people on benefits” to one “designed to help people succeed”.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Will PM keep his word on taxes?

It comes as the government announced that rail fares will be frozen for the first time in 30 years.

The fare freeze applies to England and services run by English train operators.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Budget jargon explained

And it will save commuters on more expensive routes more than £300 a year.

Read more:
PM refuses to rule out manifesto-breaking tax rises
Will government lower energy bills in the budget?

Among the rumoured measures in the budget is an extension of the freeze on income tax thresholds, which would see more people dragged into paying tax for the first time or shifted into a higher rate as their wages go up.

However, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said Ms Reeves should “have the balls” to admit that such a move would breach Labour’s manifesto promise not to raise taxes on working people.

Continue Reading

Politics

Ex-Reform leader in Wales who took pro-Russia bribes ‘can’t besmirch everyone else’, says party’s head of policy Zia Yusuf

Published

on

By

Ex-Reform leader in Wales who took pro-Russia bribes 'can't besmirch everyone else', says party's head of policy Zia Yusuf

Nathan Gill’s actions were “treasonous” but people should not “besmirch everyone else at Reform”, the party’s head of policy Zia Yusuf has said.

Gill, the former leader of Reform UK in Wales, was jailed for 10 and a half years last week after he admitted accepting tens of thousands of pounds in cash to make pro-Russian statements to the media and European Parliament.

Asked by Sky News’s Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips if the case showed the party was soft on President Vladimir Putin, Mr Yusuf said that would be an “incredibly unreasonable position to take”.

He said: “Nathan Gill, what he did was treasonous, it was horrific, it was awful. He’s been dealt with by the authorities and he deserves the sentence that he got.”

He added: “As far as we’re concerned he is ancient history. I’ve never met him, I had never heard about him until I saw he was in the newspapers. It is unreasonable to besmirch Reform and the millions of people around the country who support Nigel and support our party.”

Gill, 52, was announced as the leader of Reform UK in Wales in March 2021, but quit the party a few months later after he failed to be elected to the Senedd.

He previously led the Welsh wing of UKIP (UK Independence Party) between 2014 and 2016, then ran by Nigel Farage, and was a member of the Senedd between 2016 and 2017, as well as an MEP between 2014 and 2020.

More from Politics

Gill left UKIP in 2019 to join Mr Farage’s new Brexit Party – later rebranded as Reform UK.

Former leader of Reform UK in Wales, Nathan Gill. Pic: PA
Image:
Former leader of Reform UK in Wales, Nathan Gill. Pic: PA

Following an investigation by counter-terrorism police, officers said they believe Gill likely took a minimum of £40,000 in cash.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer demanded an investigation into links between Reform UK and Russia following the case.

Mr Farage’s position on Russia has come under scrutiny in the past. He faced a backlash during the general election campaign when he spoke about the incursion of NATO and how “we provoked this war” in Ukraine.

Read more:
Starmer demands investigation into Reform-Russia links

Speaking to Trevor Phillips, Mr Yusuf insisted his boss has never supported or been sympathetic to Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine, saying it is “not Nigel’s position that ‘we provoked the war’.”

He said: “When he [Farage] was pressed as to how he would respond if he was prime minister and Russian jets encroached into NATO airspace, his view was that those planes should be shot down. We are crystal clear about our position.

“I would also say this: the notion that Vladimir Putin, the murderous dictator, is making decisions based on what Nigel Farage is saying here in England, I think is for the birds.

“We are now in a situation where Ukraine’s sovereignty has been violated, and Vladimir Putin needs to be brought to heel.”

But Labour accused Reform of “pandering to Moscow” following the interview.

Anna Turley, chair of the Labour Party, said Mr Farage has previously called Mr Putin “the leader he most admired and has repeatedly parroted Kremlin talking points”.

She added: “Reform must urgently allow an independent investigation to root out pro-Russia links, to assure the public that Putin holds no sway over their party or its representatives.”

Read more from Sky News:
Reeves vows to ‘grip the cost of living’
PM ‘playing whack-a-mole’ to keep US on side

Police have confirmed Mr Farage has not been part of the investigation into Gill.

Mr Farage said on Friday: “An investigation into Russian and Chinese influence over British politics would be welcome.”

The Reform UK MP for Clacton had previously described his former colleague as a “bad apple” and said he was “shocked” after Gill pleaded guilty to bribery.

He said: “Any political party can find in their midst all sorts of terrible people.

“You can never, ever guarantee 100% that everyone you meet in your life, you shake hands with in the pub, is a good person.”

Continue Reading

Trending