Panic will spread through Tory ranks after stunning poll

Published

2 years ago

June 3, 2024

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The findings of the SkyNews/YouGov MRP poll are a disaster for the Conservatives, a worry for Labour and good news for the Lib Dems and Reform UK.

The forecast of a Tory near wipeout will spread panic among Conservative candidates and potentially spark a fresh bout of mutiny against Rishi Sunak from the right of his party.

Politics live: Farage makes ’emergency’ election announcement

For Labour, the suggestion that Sir Keir Starmer is heading for a landslide even bigger than Tony Blair won in 1997 will alarm those in the party already fearing complacency.

But for the Lib Dems, the projection that Sir Ed Davey’s party is heading for a result to match the heady days of Paddy Ashdown and Charles Kennedy will be a massive confidence boost.

However, the party that will be really delighted is Reform UK – already newly energised with Nigel Farage replacing Richard Tice as leader – who will claim that with Labour on course to win, Tory supporters can vote for them.

There will also be consternation in the Tory high command at the forecast that so many of the party’s big beasts – led by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt – are at risk of losing their seat.

Mr Hunt is fighting the new constituency of Godalming and Ash – in his favour it’s in a part of the affluent Surrey stockbroker belt represented by Conservative MPs since 1910.

But the cabinet minsters who are vulnerable are in seats held by Labour in the Blair and Brown years or the Liberal Democrats in the Ashdown, Kennedy or Nick Clegg years.

Grant Shapps’ Welwyn Hatfield seat was Labour from 1974 to 1979 and then from 1997 to 2005, when the current defence secretary captured it from Labour.

Commons leader Penny Mordaunt’s Portsmouth North constituency has been a bellwether seat since it was created in 1974 and she won it from Labour in 2010.

Justice Secretary Alex Chalk is defending a slender 981 majority over the Liberal Democrats in Cheltenham – a seat the LibDems held from 1992 until 2015.

But what of Reform UK, with the flamboyant Mr Farage back as leader, taking part in TV debates and so becoming a nightly presence in voters’ living rooms?

The poll suggests the party won’t win any seats and in Clacton Mr Farage is fighting a pretty huge Tory majority of 24,702 won by the former TV actor Giles Watling.

The YouGov projection suggests Hartlepool, held by the Tories since a 2021 by-election in which Jill Mortimer won a majority over Labour of 6,940 votes, is Reform UK’s best prospect.

That may change now that Mr Farage is standing in Clacton – a seat where Tory defector Douglas Carswell won a by-election for UKIP in 2014 and held it in the 2015 general election.

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As ever with polls predicting a Labour landslide, there will be a large degree of scepticism. After all, when Mr Blair won a 179-seat majority in 1997, John Major’s 21-seat 1992 majority had all but disappeared.

Boris Johnson won an 80-seat majority in 2019 and Sky News election guru Professor Michael Thrasher estimates that with boundary changes the Tories’ notional majority is 94.

But not only are these poll findings stunning, the 42.9% predicted for Labour is slightly less than the 45% and 46% in some recent opinion polls.

There’s still a month until polling day on 4 July. Governing parties behind in the polls usually close the gap on their opponents during election campaigns.

But in this election, that’s not happening yet.

Politics

Sir Keir Starmer will ‘absolutely’ still be PM next Christmas, insists Labour chair

Published

13 hours ago

December 21, 2025

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Sir Keir Starmer will 'absolutely' still be PM next Christmas, insists Labour chair

The chair of the Labour Party has insisted that Sir Keir Starmer will “absolutely” still be prime minister next Christmas, despite the party’s dire position in the polls.

Speaking to Sky’s Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips, Anna Turley acknowledged that “things are still hard” for Britons, but struck an optimistic tone about the year ahead.

She said the government has “taken a lot of difficult decisions this year” to “stabilise the economy”, but we are now “starting to see that recovery”.

“As we go into the new year, I’m really optimistic about delivering the kind of change that people voted for last year, and to see them starting to see and feel it in their pockets and in their local communities,” Ms Turley insisted.

On average over the last 10 polls, the Labour Party is down in third place on 18.2%, while Reform UK is on 29.4%, and the Conservative Party is on 18.9%.

Trevor then asked if the public simply hasn’t noticed “how lucky they’ve been”, and the senior minister said: “Well, I think rightly, people are impatient for change. We all are. And people voted for change – that was on the front of our manifesto last year.

“But it takes time to deliver that. It takes time to stabilise things from the chaos that we inherited.”

She said fundamental changes, particularly those that require legislation, take time to deliver, pointing to the Employment Rights Bill, which only passed through parliament last week after the Lords repeatedly sought to amend it.

Ms Turley continued: “We live in the real world. We know things are still hard.

“But I’m conscious with every single day that goes by next year, people will really start to see and feel more money in their pockets, better public services when they’re looking for an appointment with a doctor, their streets and the neighbourhoods are looking better and better, and that change takes time.

“But we will be delivering that in the new year, and I’m confident people can really start to see that.”

Asked directly if Sir Keir Starmer will be Labour leader and prime minister by next Christmas, Turley replied: “Of course. Absolutely.

“As I said, people will really start to see and feel the change in their pockets. He has got a very clear vision for making sure that people can really deal with the cost of living, that public services will get back on their […] feet.

“And he’s building a Britain that is one that is tolerant, that is open, that is confident in itself. And that is really about renewal and investment in young people as opposed to the division and the decline of the opposition.”

Her backing of the prime minister comes amid continued unease on the Labour benches about the party’s position in the polls, and the manoeuvrings of some big figures who are rumoured to be plotting a move against the prime minister if May’s local elections go badly.

One such person thought to be preparing for a potential leadership bid is the health secretary, Wes Streeting, who has told The Observer today that he is not ruling himself out as a candidate for the top job in future.

“I’m diplomatically ducking the question to avoid any more of the silly soap opera we’ve had in the last few months,” Streeting said, despite also noting the “pressure” and the “demands of that job”.

Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham is repeatedly refusing to rule out a return to Westminster to challenge Sir Keir for the Labour leadership, and former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner is thought to be preparing to potentially launch a leadership bid of her own.

‘We’re going to smash the local elections’

Also on Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips, the Conservative Party deputy chair, Matt Vickers, was bullish about his party’s prospects at May’s local elections.

“We’re going to go out there and smash these next elections,” he said.

“The reality is we had a tough general election. If anybody thought that we were going to dust ourselves off and be back in the game within months, then they’re a bit mad.”

Politics

US lawmakers propose tax break for small stablecoin payments, staking rewards

Published

19 hours ago

December 21, 2025

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US lawmakers propose tax break for small stablecoin payments, staking rewards

US lawmakers have introduced a discussion draft that would ease the tax burden on everyday crypto users by exempting small stablecoin transactions from capital gains taxes and offering a new deferral option for staking and mining rewards.

The proposal, introduced by Representatives Max Miller of Ohio and Steven Horsford of Nevada, seeks to amend the Internal Revenue Code to reflect the growing use of digital assets in payments. The draft is set “to eliminate low-value gain recognition arising from routine consumer payment use of regulated payment stablecoins,” per the draft.

Under the draft, users would not be required to recognize gains or losses on stablecoin transactions of up to $200, provided the asset is issued by a permitted issuer under the GENIUS Act, pegged to the US dollar and maintains a tight trading range around $1.

The bill includes safeguards to prevent abuse. The exemption would not apply if a stablecoin trades outside a narrow price band, and brokers or dealers would be excluded from the benefit. Treasury would also retain authority to issue anti-abuse rules and reporting requirements.

*Draft bill explains the reasoning behind tax breaks. Source:* *House*

US bill defers taxes on crypto staking rewards

Beyond payments, the proposal addresses long-standing concerns around “phantom income” from staking and mining. Taxpayers would be allowed to elect to defer income recognition on staking or mining rewards for up to five years, rather than being taxed immediately upon receipt.

“This provision is intended to reflect a necessary compromise between immediate taxation upon dominion & control and full deferral until disposition,” the draft said.

The draft also extends existing securities lending tax treatment to certain digital asset lending arrangements, applies wash sale rules to actively traded crypto assets, and allows traders and dealers to elect mark-to-market accounting for digital assets.

Crypto groups urge Senate to rethink stablecoin rewards ban

Last week, the Blockchain Association sent a letter to the US Senate Banking Committee, signed by more than 125 crypto companies and industry groups, opposing efforts to extend restrictions on stablecoin rewards to third-party platforms.