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The findings of the SkyNews/YouGov MRP poll are a disaster for the Conservatives, a worry for Labour and good news for the Lib Dems and Reform UK.

The forecast of a Tory near wipeout will spread panic among Conservative candidates and potentially spark a fresh bout of mutiny against Rishi Sunak from the right of his party.

Politics live: Farage makes ’emergency’ election announcement

For Labour, the suggestion that Sir Keir Starmer is heading for a landslide even bigger than Tony Blair won in 1997 will alarm those in the party already fearing complacency.

But for the Lib Dems, the projection that Sir Ed Davey’s party is heading for a result to match the heady days of Paddy Ashdown and Charles Kennedy will be a massive confidence boost.

However, the party that will be really delighted is Reform UK – already newly energised with Nigel Farage replacing Richard Tice as leader – who will claim that with Labour on course to win, Tory supporters can vote for them.

There will also be consternation in the Tory high command at the forecast that so many of the party’s big beasts – led by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt – are at risk of losing their seat.

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Mr Hunt is fighting the new constituency of Godalming and Ash – in his favour it’s in a part of the affluent Surrey stockbroker belt represented by Conservative MPs since 1910.

But the cabinet minsters who are vulnerable are in seats held by Labour in the Blair and Brown years or the Liberal Democrats in the Ashdown, Kennedy or Nick Clegg years.

Grant Shapps’ Welwyn Hatfield seat was Labour from 1974 to 1979 and then from 1997 to 2005, when the current defence secretary captured it from Labour.

Commons leader Penny Mordaunt’s Portsmouth North constituency has been a bellwether seat since it was created in 1974 and she won it from Labour in 2010.

Justice Secretary Alex Chalk is defending a slender 981 majority over the Liberal Democrats in Cheltenham – a seat the LibDems held from 1992 until 2015.

YouGov MRP suggests that the Conservatives will lose 19 points on the 2019 result

But what of Reform UK, with the flamboyant Mr Farage back as leader, taking part in TV debates and so becoming a nightly presence in voters’ living rooms?

The poll suggests the party won’t win any seats and in Clacton Mr Farage is fighting a pretty huge Tory majority of 24,702 won by the former TV actor Giles Watling.

The YouGov projection suggests Hartlepool, held by the Tories since a 2021 by-election in which Jill Mortimer won a majority over Labour of 6,940 votes, is Reform UK’s best prospect.

That may change now that Mr Farage is standing in Clacton – a seat where Tory defector Douglas Carswell won a by-election for UKIP in 2014 and held it in the 2015 general election.

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As ever with polls predicting a Labour landslide, there will be a large degree of scepticism. After all, when Mr Blair won a 179-seat majority in 1997, John Major’s 21-seat 1992 majority had all but disappeared.

Boris Johnson won an 80-seat majority in 2019 and Sky News election guru Professor Michael Thrasher estimates that with boundary changes the Tories’ notional majority is 94.

But not only are these poll findings stunning, the 42.9% predicted for Labour is slightly less than the 45% and 46% in some recent opinion polls.

There’s still a month until polling day on 4 July. Governing parties behind in the polls usually close the gap on their opponents during election campaigns.

But in this election, that’s not happening yet.

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RWAs build mirrors where they need building blocks

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RWAs build mirrors where they need building blocks

RWAs build mirrors where they need building blocks

Most RWAs remain isolated and underutilized instead of composable, DeFi-ready building blocks. It’s time to change that.

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Collapsed crypto firm Ziglu faces $2.7M deficit amid special administration

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Collapsed crypto firm Ziglu faces .7M deficit amid special administration

Collapsed crypto firm Ziglu faces .7M deficit amid special administration

Thousands of savers face potential losses after a $2.7 million shortfall was discovered at Ziglu, a British crypto fintech that entered special administration.

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Heidi Alexander says ‘fairness’ will be government’s ‘guiding principle’ when it comes to taxes at next budget

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Heidi Alexander says 'fairness' will be government's 'guiding principle' when it comes to taxes at next budget

Another hint that tax rises are coming in this autumn’s budget has been given by a senior minister.

Speaking to Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander was asked if Sir Keir Starmer and the rest of the cabinet had discussed hiking taxes in the wake of the government’s failed welfare reforms, which were shot down by their own MPs.

Trevor Phillips asked specifically if tax rises were discussed among the cabinet last week – including on an away day on Friday.

Politics Hub: Catch up on the latest

Tax increases were not discussed “directly”, Ms Alexander said, but ministers were “cognisant” of the challenges facing them.

Asked what this means, Ms Alexander added: “I think your viewers would be surprised if we didn’t recognise that at the budget, the chancellor will need to look at the OBR forecast that is given to her and will make decisions in line with the fiscal rules that she has set out.

“We made a commitment in our manifesto not to be putting up taxes on people on modest incomes, working people. We have stuck to that.”

Ms Alexander said she wouldn’t comment directly on taxes and the budget at this point, adding: “So, the chancellor will set her budget. I’m not going to sit in a TV studio today and speculate on what the contents of that budget might be.

“When it comes to taxation, fairness is going to be our guiding principle.”

Read more:
Reeves won’t rule out tax rises

What is a wealth tax and how would it work?

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Afterwards, shadow home secretary Chris Philp told Phillips: “That sounds to me like a barely disguised reference to tax rises coming in the autumn.”

He then went on to repeat the Conservative attack lines that Labour are “crashing the economy”.

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Chris Philp also criticsed the government’s migration deal with France

Mr Philp then attacked the prime minister as “weak” for being unable to get his welfare reforms through the Commons.

Discussions about potential tax rises have come to the fore after the government had to gut its welfare reforms.

Sir Keir had wanted to change Personal Independence Payments (PIP), but a large Labour rebellion forced him to axe the changes.

With the savings from these proposed changes – around £5bn – already worked into the government’s sums, they will now need to find the money somewhere else.

The general belief is that this will take the form of tax rises, rather than spending cuts, with more money needed for military spending commitments, as well as other areas of priority for the government, such as the NHS.

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