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Jun 3, 2024, 07:00 AM ET

ESPN has released its 2024 Football Power Index (FPI) ratings and projections, and our college football reporters are here to break them down.

The ratings, for the uninitiated, include forecasts for every team’s record, its chances of winning a conference title and of course, its probability to make the expanded 12-team playoff and win the national championship.

The FPI is a power rating that tracks each team’s strength relative to an average FBS squad. Teams are rated on offense, defense and special teams, with the values representing points per game.

You can read Neil Paine’s takeaways here and get our staff’s analysis below.

Which team is the FPI undervaluing?

Chris Low: Oklahoma State at No. 26 is way too low. Of course, coach Mike Gundy and the Cowboys have been at their best when not as much is expected of them. They have everything in place to win the Big 12 championship this season and earn a spot in the playoff after playing in the Big 12 championship game a year ago. The Pokes return 21 starters, including the nation’s leading rusher from a year ago, Ollie Gordon II, seven offensive linemen who made multiple starts last season, quarterback Alan Bowman, who passed for 3,460 yards in 2023 and big-play linebackers Collin Oliver and Nickolas Martin, who combined for 31.5 tackles for loss a year ago.

Adam Rittenberg: Utah seems low at 27, especially if — and it’s a huge if, as we found out last season — quarterback Cam Rising‘s knee injury is truly behind him. Rising gives Utah a championship-level quarterback to steady an offense that also returns standout tight end Brant Kuithe from injury, and has upgraded the wide receiver spot through portal additions such as USC’s Dorian Singer. Utah returns most of its defensive front seven, and while the secondary has some question marks, Zemaiah Vaughn‘s return will help. Perhaps most important, coach Kyle Whittingham and much of his staff have navigated conference transition before, and the move to the Big 12 shouldn’t be as turbulent as the one they made from the Mountain West to the Pac-12.

David Hale: Kids are taught that, when you touch the stove and burn your hand, you won’t touch the stove again. Well, here I am, touching the stove and saying NC State is finally going to have its breakthrough season. I know, I know. We’ve been here before. The formula goes: If the Wolfpack have high expectations, they disappoint. If they’re flying under the radar, they’re surprisingly good. Who cares? This is a new era of college football and, after the men’s and women’s basketball teams made a Final Four and an NC State alumnus won her second Cooper’s Hill cheese-rolling competition, it’s time for Dave Doeren’s crew to step up. With the additions of transfers quarterback Grayson McCall, tight end Justin Joly, running back Jordan Waters, receiver Noah Rogers and offensive lineman Zeke Correll, the offense is as loaded with talent as it has ever been in Doeren’s 11-year tenure. Tony Gibson‘s defenses are always excellent, and the schedule sets up nicely for the Pack. So why does the FPI have them at No. 28, behind five other ACC teams? Because the FPI knows not to touch the stove again.

Paolo Uggetti: I couldn’t agree more with Adam on Utah at 27, and I feel somewhat similar about Arizona at 24. Yes, I know the Wildcats have a brand new coach in Brent Brennan after losing Jedd Fisch to Washington, but they return quarterback Noah Fifita and wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan — a tandem that could upend the Big 12 in their debut year. Fifita has some sleeper Heisman potential, while McMillan is part of a pretty loaded wide receiver room. If Brennan can get the Wildcats’ defense to not be somnambulant this season, there’s a great chance their offense is good enough to carry them into being better than the 24th-best team in the nation.

Jake Trotter: Kansas State is perennially undervalued and underrated, and this season appears to be no different. The Wildcats boast one of the more intriguing backfields in the country with ascending quarterback Avery Johnson paired with returning 1,000-yard rusher DJ Giddens and Colorado running back transfer Dylan Edwards, an excellent pass-catcher out of the backfield. With Texas and Oklahoma now in the SEC, the Wildcats will have a solid chance to win the Big 12 and make their debut in the revamped CFP.

Mark Schlabach: Still no love for Lane Kiffin, huh? I had the Rebels at No. 6 in my post-spring power rankings — the FPI has them 10 spots lower. Ole Miss picked up several transfers who should make an immediate impact — defensive end Princely Umanmielen (Florida), defensive tackle Walter Nolen (Texas A&M), receiver Antwane Wells Jr. (South Carolina), tailback Jacory Croskey-Merritt (New Mexico) and others. We know the offense is going to be potent with quarterback Jaxson Dart returning, and Kiffin seems focused on improving his defense. Ole Miss should go 4-0 against its nonconference schedule (Furman, Middle Tennessee and Georgia Southern at home and Wake Forest on the road) and it doesn’t have to play Alabama in the regular season for a change.

Which team is the FPI overvaluing?

Rittenberg: Oklahoma at No. 8 wouldn’t concern me as much if the Sooners were staying in the Big 12, rather than moving to the SEC. The combination of a young quarterback (Jackson Arnold), two new primary coordinators (Seth Littrell and Zac Alley), a defense that hasn’t really found its way under coach Brent Venables and a schedule that features Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU, Tennessee and Missouri, in addition to rival Texas, sets off a few alarm bells. Oklahoma has done well in the portal and returns some star power on defense, but I don’t see a top-10 finish this year in Norman.

Hale: Missouri had four wins by a touchdown or less last season, got Ohio State in a bowl game the Buckeyes weren’t intent on winning and were carried by a remarkable season from Cody Schrader and a can’t-miss kicker in Harrison Mevis, both gone in 2024. This isn’t to say Missouri won’t be good again, but No. 10 in the country? The Tigers haven’t had back-to-back top-10 seasons since 1968 and 1969. Yes, the schedule is pretty accommodating by SEC standards — Alabama and Oklahoma are the only power conference opponents who won at least eight games last year — but this still feels like an overreach based on last year’s surprising success. Every other team in the top 15 would be considered a traditional blue blood. Missouri is the outlier. And if I were picking an outlier as a top-10 program out of the SEC, I’d go with Ole Miss (No. 16) instead.

Trotter: There’s plenty of excitement in College Station for the Mike Elko era, and rightfully so. Elko worked wonders with far less talent at Duke. But the Aggies are coming off another middling season and haven’t reached double-digit victories in a season since their SEC debut in 2012 when Johnny Manziel won the Heisman Trophy. Elko should put the Aggies on the right track after Jimbo Fisher’s disastrous tenure as head coach. But as past Texas A&M teams have proven, offseason hype doesn’t necessarily translate to winning games in the fall.

Schlabach: Florida went 11-14 in coach Billy Napier’s first two seasons, and I’m not sure the Gators will be much better in 2024 because of their brutal schedule. Florida plays nonconference games against Miami and Florida State, and faces a brutal SEC slate that includes road games at Tennessee and Texas and home games against Texas A&M, LSU and Ole Miss — as well as its annual showdown against Georgia in Jacksonville, Florida. The Gators lost tailback Trevor Etienne, who transferred to Georgia, and leading receiver Ricky Pearsall, who left for the NFL. Quarterback Graham Mertz was efficient in his first season at Florida, but he was sacked 31 times behind a bad offensive line. Napier blew up his defensive coaching staff after the Gators ranked 78th in the FBS in scoring defense (27.6 points) and 71st in total defense (382.3 yards).

Which power conference team outside the Top 25 can make a CFP run?

Rittenberg: At the risk of repeating one of my earlier answers (Utah) or one of C-Low’s (Oklahoma State), I’m taking a fairly sizable leap of faith — I’m sure you’d agree, Hale — by selecting NC State, slotted at No. 28. The Wolfpack haven’t won an ACC title since 1979 and last reached 10 or more victories in 2002, when Philip Rivers played quarterback. But NC State has had the personnel to break through, especially on defense under coach Dave Doeren, and added transfer quarterback Grayson McCall, who had 10,005 passing yards and 88 touchdowns at Coastal Carolina. The Wolfpack don’t play Florida State, Louisville or SMU this season, and face a potentially vulnerable Clemson team early, albeit on the road. If McCall provides a spark to complement a defense returning cornerback Aydan White, end Davin Vann and other standouts, NC State could make a surprise league title push.

Trotter: Oklahoma State boasts the reigning Doak Walker Award winner in Gordon, an excellent receiving duo in Brennan Presley and Rashod Owens, an experienced offensive line and a veteran QB in Bowman. Gundy’s teams almost always improve over the course of the season. And the Pokes no longer have to stress over the Sooners standing in the way. The Big 12 is wide open with several potential contenders. But Oklahoma State has as good a chance as anyone of coming out on top.

Schlabach: I was much higher on Utah and NC State in my power rankings than the FPI. What about West Virginia? The Mountaineers went 9-4 last season, taking the pressure off embattled coach Neal Brown. West Virginia was fourth in the FBS in rushing (228.9 yards) in 2023, and tailback Jahiem White and CJ Donaldson are returning. Quarterback Garrett Greene is mobile and if he improves his accuracy, the offense will be more balanced. West Virginia’s offensive line allowed only 10 sacks last season, fewest in the Big 12. The defense was built on pressure, and the Mountaineers led the league with 33 sacks. Transfer defensive tackle T.J. Jackson (Troy), defensive end Ty French (Gardner-Webb) and cornerbacks TJ Crandall (Colorado State) and Ayden Garnes (Duquesne) should help fill some holes.

Which team has a ranking that may look odd now but will be proven correct by end of year?

Low: Seeing Missouri at No. 10, which means the Tigers would likely be in the playoff, might be a stretch in some people’s eyes. But Eliah Drinkwitz has done a nice job of replenishing the roster after winning 11 games last season, and Mizzou will again be potent on offense with a defense that will count on several high-profile transfers. Equally important is that the Tigers have what appears to be the most manageable schedule in the SEC. They avoid Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss and Texas. Their toughest nonconference contest is Boston College at home.

Hale: Let’s go off the board and suggest West Virginia could have a moment in 2024. (Schlabach may be on to something.) Remember this time last year when head coach Neal Brown railed against the idiots who picked his team to finish last in the Big 12? Yeah, he may have had a point there. QB Garrett Greene made huge strides and was among the most underrated passers in the country. The defense made strides, and Jahiem White was a revelation as a freshman, averaging close to 8 yards per carry. There’s a lot to like here, and the schedule sets up relatively well, with two of the three biggest tests — Kansas and Kansas State — coming at home. The Big 12 is wide open, and while West Virginia certainly won’t be the trendy pick, it has come a long way from the cellar.

Uggetti: I don’t know if USC at No. 18 looks particularly odd right now — perhaps some would argue it’s too high for a team that is losing No. 1 NFL draft pick Caleb Williams — but I think this is about right where the Trojans should settle in when it’s all said and done. There’s a strong belief within the program that quarterback Miller Moss will be a more than capable replacement for Williams, and the much-maligned defense should be far better than last year’s unit under new defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn. But the schedule the Trojans face is a gauntlet. Not only do they open the year in Las Vegas against LSU, but they also play Michigan in Ann Arbor, host Penn State and finish the year with a road trip to Washington and a home matchup against Notre Dame. Tricky road trips to Minnesota and Maryland could also prove to be tougher than they currently appear. Still, USC should — emphasis on “should” — have the talent to finish inside the top 20 by season’s end.

Trotter: Penn State has been overshadowed by Ohio State and Michigan in the Big Ten. Yet while the Wolverines and Buckeyes have uncertainty at quarterback, the Nittany Lions have the top returning QB in the league in Drew Allar, who threw 25 touchdowns with only two interceptions last season. Could this be the year that Penn State finally gets over the Big Ten hump? A No. 6 ranking might seem high. But the Nittany Lions have the pieces on both sides of the ball to warrant such a bullish outlook.

Schlabach: Does any first-year coach face more pressure this season than Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer, who has the unenviable job of replacing Nick Saban, perhaps the greatest coach in history? Alabama (No. 5) isn’t going to fall off a cliff simply because Saban is gone. DeBoer has won everywhere he has been — he has a 104-12 record — and took Washington to the CFP National Championship game last season. The offense is going to be fine with quarterback Jalen Milroe, receiver Germie Bernard and tailbacks Jamarion Miller and Justice Haynes leading the way. The Tide face an early stiff test at home against Georgia on Sept. 28 and road games at Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma. But there’s plenty of talent left in Tuscaloosa for DeBoer to take the Tide back to the CFP.

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Texas No. 1 in preseason AP Top 25 for first time

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August 11, 2025

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Texas No. 1 in preseason AP Top 25 for first time

  • Associated Press

Aug 11, 2025, 12:07 PM ET

For the first time, Texas will open a college football season ranked No. 1 in The Associated Press Top 25.

The Longhorns hardly have a mandate in the poll released Monday: They edged out Penn State by just five points in the closest preseason vote since 1998.

Texas received 25 first-place votes and 1,552 points to give the Southeastern Conference the preseason No. 1 team for a record fifth straight year. The Nittany Lions got 23 first-place votes and 1,547 points for their highest preseason ranking since they were No. 1 to open the 1997 season.

The Longhorns face a major test right away. Their Aug. 30 opener at defending champion and third-ranked Ohio State is a rematch of last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal, a 28-14 Buckeyes win in the Cotton Bowl.

The Buckeyes received 11 first-place votes from the panel of 65 media members who cover college football. No. 4 Clemson got four first-place votes and No. 5 Georgia got one.

Notre Dame, Oregon (which got the final first-place vote), Alabama, LSU and Miami round out the top 10.

The SEC leads all conferences with 10 teams in the preseason Top 25, most ever by a conference and one more than a year ago. The SEC has four teams in the top 10 for the second straight year.

The Big Ten, which has won the past two national championships, has two of the top three teams in the poll for the third straight year and six in the Top 25 for the third year in a row.

Four Big 12 teams are ranked, with defending conference champion Arizona State the highest at No. 11. The Atlantic Coast Conference has three, led by Clemson.

Top-ranked Texas “Arch Mania” is at a fever pitch in Texas with Arch Manning now the undisputed starting quarterback.

The Longhorns have been on an upward trajectory since they were 5-7 in 2021, Steve Sarkisian’s first season. They have won 25 of their past 30 games and reached two straight CFP semifinals. Last year, they were ranked No. 1 four of five weeks from mid-September to mid-October, and they reached the SEC championship game in their first season in the conference.

“But this is a new year, new faces, new team, and obviously expectations are high for our program,” Sarkisian said at SEC media days. “I’m not naive to that. I don’t put my head in the sand, and expectations are very high. But I also say we’re the University of Texas, and the standard is the standard here, and that’s competing for championships year in and year out.”

Twelve Texas players were taken in the NFL draft, including three first-round picks, but elite recruiting and additions from the transfer portal should alleviate concerns about losses on the offensive line and at receiver. The defense brings back plenty of talent.

Still, Texas received just 38.5% of the first-place votes (25 of 65), the smallest share for a No. 1 team in the preseason poll since Georgia got 33.9% (22 of 65) in 2008.

The Longhorns have ended a season No. 1 in the AP poll three times (1963, 1969, 2005) but until now had never started a season higher than No. 2 (1962, 1965, 1970, 2005, 2009).

Big Ten lurking

The second-ranked Nittany Lions are not only six points from being No. 1, they are 75 points ahead of the Buckeyes in what might be considered a slight to the national champs.

Penn State will have Drew Allar back under center for what many consider a light schedule ahead of a late September visit from Oregon before a Nov. 1 showdown at Ohio State.

The Buckeyes, in the preseason top five for the ninth straight year and 12th of the past 13, will have a new look with only five starters back on offense and three on defense.

“This team has its own identity,” coach Ryan Day said. “It wants to have its own identity, but it also wants to be the first Ohio State team to win back-to-back national championships.”

The opener against Texas will give the Buckeyes a good measure of themselves. Julian Sayin or Lincoln Kienholz will be the third new starting quarterback in three years. Whoever gets the job will throw to one of the nation’s top players in Jeremiah Smith.

Day will also have another chance to figure out archrival and preseason No. 14 Michigan, which has beaten the Buckeyes for four straight years.

Poll nuggets

• Texas will try to become the 12th team to start and finish No. 1 since the AP preseason poll debuted in 1950. The last team to do it was Alabama in 2017.

• Notre Dame is in the preseason top 10 for the third time in four years. The Fighting Irish will have a new quarterback, CJ Carr or Kenny Minchey. The two played a combined eight snaps last season as Notre Dame went all the way to the CFP title game won by Ohio State.

• With Boise State at No. 25, all 12 teams in the 2024 College Football Playoff are ranked in the preseason. The Mountain West’s Broncos are the first team from a Group of Five conference to crack the preseason Top 25 since Tulane was No. 24 in 2023.

• No. 16 SMU, which returns quarterback Kevin Jennings from its CFP team, is in the preseason Top 25 for the first time in 40 years. The 1985 team was No. 3, finishing 6-5 and unranked.

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AP preseason poll reaction: One big number for every team

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4 hours ago

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August 11, 2025

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Texas No. 1 in preseason AP Top 25 for first time

Aug 11, 2025, 12:15 PM ET

The first AP poll of the 2025 college football season has been released. Texas begins the season at No. 1 followed by Penn State, Ohio State, Clemson and Georgia.

Texas is ranked No. 1 in the preseason coaches’ poll. The Longhorns face a major test right away. Their Aug. 30 opener at defending champion and third-ranked Ohio State is a rematch of last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal, a 28-14 Buckeyes win in the Cotton Bowl.

The SEC leads the way with 10 teams in the AP Top 25, the most ever by one conference. The Big Ten is second with six teams represented.

With the season about to start, here’s one big stat to know for each team in the AP Top 25.

Stats courtesy of ESPN Research.

All times Eastern

2024 record: 13-3

Week 1: Aug. 30 at Ohio State, noon, Fox

Stat to know: 26. The Longhorns’ 26 turnovers last season were the fifth most in the FBS, yet they still had a plus-5 turnover margin thanks to their 31 takeaways, which were second in the country.

2024 record: 13-3

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Nevada, 3:30 p.m., CBS

Stat to know: 3,237. Penn State led all Power 4 teams in rushing last season with 3,237 yards. Running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, who each rushed for more than 1,000 yards last season, return in 2025.

2024 record: 14-2

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Texas, noon, Fox

Stat to know: 84. QB Julian Sayin, a freshman in 2024 and former five-star recruit, has thrown for just 84 career yards. However, he is the leading passer on Ohio State’s roster.

2024 record: 10-4

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. LSU, 7:30 p.m., ESPN

Stat to know: 0-3. Clemson went 0-3 against the SEC in 2024 (Georgia, South Carolina, Texas). The Tigers haven’t lost four straight games to the SEC since doing so across three seasons from 1974-76.

2024 record: 11-3

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Marshall, 3:30 p.m., ESPN

Stat to know: 53-5. That’s Georgia’s record over the past four seasons, with three of the losses coming to Alabama. Michigan (48-8) and Ohio State (47-8) are the only other FBS schools with fewer than 10 losses in that span.

2024 record: 14-2

Week 1: Aug. 31 at Miami, 7:30 p.m., ABC

Stat to know: 5. The Irish have five true road games this season (Miami, Arkansas, Boston College, Pitt, Stanford). The program last won more than three true road games in 2021 (4-0), compiling an 8-4 record in true road games since then (3-0 last season).

2024 record: 13-1

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Montana State, 4 p.m., BTN

Stat to know: 39. Since 2022, when Dan Lanning took over as head coach, Oregon has led the country in points per game with 39. The Ducks will have a new starting QB in 2025 (Dante Moore). It’s the third year in a row with a different starting QB.

2024 record: 9-4

Week 1: Aug. 30 at Florida State, 3:30 p.m., ABC

Stat to know: 4. Last season, Alabama had four losses for the first time since 2007, which also was the last time the Tide finished outside of the AP top 10. They ended 2024 ranked 17th.

2024 record: 9-4

Week 1: Aug. 30 at Clemson, 7:30 p.m., ESPN

Stat to know: 125. Linebacker Whit Weeks, a rising junior, was second in the SEC last season with 125 tackles, including 10 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks.

2024 record: 10-3

Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Notre Dame, 7:30 p.m., ABC

Stat to know: 150. Of Miami’s top seven receivers from 2024, only tight end Elija Lofton is back in 2025. He had 150 yards on nine catches last season.

2024 record: 11-3

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Northern Arizona, 10 p.m., ESPN+

Stat to know: 39. The Sun Devils have to replace All-Big 12 first-team running back Cam Skattebo, who accounted for 39% of the team’s scrimmage yards last season (T-4th in the FBS).

2024 record: 10-3

Week 1: Aug. 29 vs. Western Illinois, 7:30 p.m., Peacock

Stat to know: 10. Illinois has never won 10 games in consecutive seasons.

2024 record: 9-4

Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Virginia Tech (in Atlanta), 3 p.m., ESPN

Stat to know: 261. In his first year as starting quarterback, LaNorris Sellers averaged 261 passing yards in his final six games — 100 more than he had averaged over his first six games.

2024 record: 8-5

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. New Mexico, 7:30 p.m., Peacock

Stat to know: 131. Michigan ranked 131st in passing in 2024, behind only the service academies. The Wolverines did bring in veteran Fresno State QB Mikey Keene and signed five-star QB Bryce Underwood, the No. 1 overall recruit in the class of 2025.

2024 record: 8-5

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Long Island, 7 p.m., ESPN+

Stat to know: 20. Florida recorded 20 sacks over its last four games of the season, fifth most among FBS teams after Week 11 and the most among non-CFP teams.

2024 record: 11-3

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. East Texas A&M, 9 p.m., ACC Network

Stat to know: 40.8. Last season the Mustangs scored 40.8 points per game (fifth most in the FBS) after Kevin Jennings took over as starting QB against TCU in Week 4.

2024 record: 9-4

Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Iowa State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN

Stat to know: 605. Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson led all Big 12 quarterbacks in rushing in 2024 with 605 yards.

2024 record: 6-7

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Illinois State, 6 p.m., ESPN+

Stat to know: 26. The Sooners have played in a bowl game in 26 consecutive seasons. Only Georgia (28) has a longer active streak.

2024 record: 8-5

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. UTSA, 7 p.m., ESPN

Stat to know: 16.2%. Defensive end Cashius Howell had a 16.2% pressure rate last season, the sixth best among FBS players and best of any returning SEC player.

2024 record: 11-2

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Old Dominion, 2:30 p.m., FS1

Stat to know: 8. Should Indiana win eight or more games, it would mark the first time since 1987 and 1988 that the Hoosiers won at least eight games in consecutive seasons.

2024 record: 10-3

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Georgia State, 7:45 p.m., SEC Network

Stat to know: 45. Ole Miss returns 45% of its defensive production. In 2024, the Rebels ranked first in the SEC in points allowed per game (14.4) and rush yards allowed per game (81).

2024 record: 11-3

Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Kansas State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN

Stat to know: 5.35. Iowa State yielded 5.35 yards per rush in 2024, which ranked 126th in the FBS. ISU allowed 81 carries of 10 or more yards last season, ranking 125th in the FBS.

2024 record: 8-5

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 7:30 p.m., ESPN+

Stat to know: 2018. The Red Raiders have not appeared in an AP poll since 2018. No power conference program has played more games as an unranked team over the past six seasons than Texas Tech (74). On the other hand, 89 FBS programs have played at least one game as an AP-ranked team since 2019.

2024 record: 10-3

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Syracuse (in Atlanta), noon, ABC

Stat to know: 39. Tennessee returns 39% of its offensive production from last season, which is ranked 110th in the FBS for returning offensive production. Nico Iamaleava was the headliner among the departures, but the Vols brought in App State QB Joey Aguilar, who has thrown 56 touchdown passes in the past two seasons.

2024 record: 12-2

Week 1: Aug. 28 at USF, 5:30 p.m., ESPN

Stat to know: 2,601. Boise State is looking to replace Ashton Jeanty’s 2,601 rushing yards. The Broncos brought in Fresno State transfer Malik Sherrod, who rushed for 966 yards and 10 total touchdowns in 2023. Sherrod appeared in only five games in 2024 before suffering an ankle injury.

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One bet for every AP Top 25 team

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4 hours ago

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August 11, 2025

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One bet for every AP Top 25 team

  • Pamela MaldonadoAug 11, 2025, 01:00 PM ET

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      Pamela Maldonado is a sports betting analyst for ESPN.

Before the first whistle of the 2025 college football season blows and play begins, the betting market is already moving. Week 1 lines are live at ESPN BET with season win totals and futures shaping up. Each team in the preseason AP top 25 poll has a story, whether it’s a rebuild, a reload or a revenge tour.

I’ve combed through the markets and picked one betting angle for every Top 25 ranked team, including win totals, long shots and even some bets for Week 1. There is plenty of head-to-head matchups, stability edges and fade-worthy hype. Here are 25 bets to consider before the college football chaos begins.

All odds are accurate as of time stamp. All times Eastern. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.

The bet: Texas to miss the playoff (+220)

Texas is currently the favorite to win the national championship at ESPN BET, but this feels more like hype than substance. If the Longhorns drop two road games at Ohio State and Georgia, they have zero margin for error the rest of the way. And winning games against teams like Florida, Kentucky and Texas A&M isn’t guaranteed with such a young roster. All three games are tricky spots for Texas, especially late in the year. Even with a strong recruiting class, asking Arch Manning to go nearly perfect through that stretch is a lot. That’s why Texas going 10-2 feels like the smart bet. Taking the Longhorns to miss the playoff has real value.

The bet: Penn State over 10.5 wins (+120)

Penn State is built for another deep playoff run this year. Drew Allar enters his third season as the Nittany Lions’ starter with continuity around him. Top backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton return, and while Tyler Warren is gone, the receiving room stays intact with Harrison Wallace III and Omari Evans. The key is Allar taking the next step, but the pieces are there. With OC Andy Kotelnicki in his second year and a veteran core, this team is ready. Trusting James Franklin is a big ask but with an experienced roster, the path is clear for Penn State to take a leap.

The bet: Ohio State (-2.5) vs. Texas

Week 1 brings a heavyweight showdown in Columbus, a game of experience versus transition. Texas rolls in with tons of hype around QB Arch Manning but question marks remain, as the Longhorns attempt to break in a new quarterback and new skill players after losing their top two wideouts and key depth in the backfield.

The defending champion Buckeyes aren’t starting from scratch. Ohio State returns core defensive pieces and still has firepower at receiver with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. The Buckeyes’ defense could be the difference against a Texas offense likely to lean heavily on the ground game early. Also, Ohio State rarely loses at Ohio Stadium, where it has gone 27-3 since 2021.

The bet: Tigers to make the playoff (-145)

I’m all in on the Tigers this year. Don’t be surprised if Cade Klubnik is the best quarterback in the country by December. He has got the experience, the green light and a trio of dangerous receivers in Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr. and TJ Moore. Continuity and talent are finally aligned for the Tigers on offense as well as a friendly schedule with LSU as the only true litmus test early. While I’m not quite ready to say Clemson is my pick to win the national championship, the Tigers are a team to watch in 2025. Look for a lot of Clemson’s games to go over as this offense will be electric.

The bet: Georgia over 9.5 wins (-180)

The Bulldogs have questions, a new quarterback, a revamped offensive line and unproven edge rushers, but they’re still stacked with recruiting talent and depth at nearly every position. They get Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss and Kentucky all at home, where they’re an absurd 47-1 since 2017. QB Gunner Stockton has the tools, the defense is still loaded and the receiving room finally has explosiveness. Even if this team isn’t vintage Georgia, 10 wins feels more like the Bulldogs’ floor than their ceiling.

The bet: Head-to-head Most Regular Season Wins: Notre Dame (-130) vs. Texas

Notre Dame’s defense is the reason they could go undefeated, and it starts up front. Despite losing three starters on the defensive line, the Irish return 11 linemen who combined for nearly 2,400 snaps last season, which means this group is deep, experienced and versatile. The Irish added key transfers and have multiple breakout candidates like freshman quarterback CJ Carr. The defense is loaded with size, length and pass-rushing upside and can rotate in waves. Against a Texas team still retooling with a new quarterback and key losses at the skill positions, Notre Dame has a stable path to more wins this season.

The bet: Oregon to miss the playoff (+210)

I’m not as high on Dante Moore as the market. He has arm talent but struggled with turnovers, pressure and consistency when he last started as a freshman at UCLA in 2023. He also lacks the mobility to escape the pocket when things break down. Losing WR Tez Johnson to the NFL strips away a key weapon, especially in the short and intermediate game. That impact showed late in the season where Oregon nearly lost 16-13 to Wisconsin without him. If Moore doesn’t progress quickly and Johnson’s absence lingers, this team will take a step back.

The bet: Alabama to miss the playoff (+125)

This is a wager against the current roster’s limitations, road vulnerability and a path with no margin for defensive error. The Crimson Tide’s defense isn’t what it used to be. In 2024 they were ranked 52nd in run defense while giving up scores on 85% of red zone trips on the road. Throw in road games at Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina and Auburn. The offense might keep Alabama alive, but with key losses on defense, 10-2 feels more like the ceiling. In a crowded 12-team Playoff, that might not be enough. The name still carries weight, but the cracks are there.

The bet: LSU under 8.5 wins (+135)

The Tigers at plus money have value when you consider their schedule and roster concerns. LSU opens the season at Clemson, a more complete team, then travels to Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma, all three teams with strong home-field edges. Even home games against Florida and South Carolina are not guaranteed wins. Especially with an offensive line in transition after losing both starting tackles to the NFL and a run game that is relying on a freshman to carry the load after the team averaged just 116 yards per game this past season, 104th in the country. Most of the wide receiver room is new, so early chemistry with QB Garrett Nussmeier could take time. There’s talent, but between the turnover, health questions and a brutal road slate, nine wins is a tall ask.

The bet: Notre Dame (-2.5) at Miami

This isn’t a bet on Miami, but it’s a wager that offers the most value. Notre Dame returns a loaded defense with depth, experience and a pass rush that can expose Miami’s rebuilt receiving corps. The Hurricanes are still replacing their top five receivers, starting a new quarterback in Carson Beck and rolling out a brand-new defensive coaching staff. That’s a lot of moving parts against a team with continuity and Playoff expectations. If Beck’s turnover issues from this past season show up early, Notre Dame has the defense to make the Hurricanes pay. The bet on Miami is Beck to throw an interception in this game.

The bet: Arizona State under 8.5 wins (-135)

I don’t love this, but it makes more sense when you factor in the loss of Cam Skattebo. He accounted for over 2,300 yards (rushing and receiving) and 21 of the team’s 30 rushing touchdowns. Without him, the pressure shifts entirely to second-year quarterback Sam Leavitt, who’s talented but still young, and now without his safety valve. The Sun Devils’ schedule looks manageable on paper, but close games become harder to close without Skattebo’s power and consistency. ASU still has upside, but losing its most reliable weapon lowers the floor.

The bet: Illinois under 7.5 wins (+130)

Call it contrarian, but I’m not as high on the Illini as others. Yes, they beat Nebraska, Michigan and South Carolina this past season, but those wins came with major context. Michigan was still figuring itself out early in the season, and the Citrus Bowl win came in a watered-down matchup filled with opt-outs. Losing Josh McCray to Georgia, the Illini’s most physical running back and leader in rushing scores, matters. The backfield is still solid, but not as proven, and with a tougher schedule ahead, under eight wins could be valuable.

The bet: South Carolina over 7.5 wins (-105)

This is an underrated play given the ceiling the Gamecocks have built around quarterback LaNorris Sellers and what he brings to this team. He has Jayden Daniels potential as a dual-threat QB with the ability to carry a team when the defense is in transition. Yes, South Carolina’s defense lost a lot of experienced players, but the system remains aggressive and there are still difference-makers in edge Dylan Stewart and DB Jalon Kilgore. The Gamecocks finished 2024 with six straight regular season wins and now have momentum, confidence and a clear offensive identity. If the young skill guys step up even modestly, Sellers can guide South Carolina to a winning season.

The bet: Michigan to win the Big Ten (+850)

The Wolverines closed this past season with three straight wins, including impressive performances at Ohio State and against Alabama. They should be able to use that momentum this season with a deep group of pass rushers and a secondary that could be among the best in the country. Michigan’s schedule sets up well for a potential undefeated Big Ten run, with The Game back in Ann Arbor where Michigan has won four straight in the rivalry. Freshman QB Bryce Underwood, a 5-star recruit, provides upside and depth far better than last year’s carousel. If the quarterback position hits, along with the defense, this ticket has legs.

The bet: Florida under 7.5 wins (-135)

The juice on this bet isn’t ideal, but it’s warranted. Florida’s schedule is brutal with road trips to LSU and Texas A&M, plus games against Texas, Georgia and Tennessee — all teams with solid defenses. Quarterback DJ Lagway has potential, but he has dealt with shoulder issues and has no proven depth behind him. The Gators’ defense finished strong this past year but are thin in the interior and their secondary has durability concerns, especially with DB Devin Moore. If Lagway misses any time or the trenches wear down, this could easily be a 6-6 season for Florida with Billy Napier heading out the door.

The bet: SMU over 8.5 wins (-120)

With Kevin Jennings back at quarterback, SMU’s passing game is ready to roll. Jennings brings big-play ability and has experience around him in proven receivers Jordan Hudson, Romello Brinson and tight end RJ Maryland. The Mustangs’ passing offense should be their strength again, especially early while the backfield settles in. If Jennings can cut down on his turnovers, this team’s floor is nine wins.

The bet: Kansas State to win the Big 12 (+550)

Quarterback Avery Johnson has taken the next step as a leader and passer, and the offense is balanced with a deep backfield and a promising receiver group. The Wildcats’ defensive front is among the best in the conference, and linebacker Austin Romaine gives them a true anchor. Kansas State’s early schedule is quirky, but winnable, starting with Iowa State in Dublin, a game the Wildcats should handle. If the secondary holds up, this veteran team has all the tools to make a serious run at the conference title.

The bet: Oklahoma under 6.5 wins (+135)

Cal transfer running back Jaydn Ott brings name recognition, but he wasn’t fully healthy this past season and didn’t log a single 100-yard rushing game. Even if Ott and Washington State transfer quarterback John Mateer click in this offense, the Sooners’ offensive line is still a major liability after giving up 50 sacks in 2024. I like Mateer’s potential. He is a solid quarterback, but Oklahoma’s schedule is brutal with Michigan early followed by what could be a challenging game against Texas and games against South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama in a row. For a team that went 2-6 in the SEC this past season and still lacks proven playmakers, seven wins feels like a reach.

The bet: Texas A&M over 7.5 wins (-170)

I’m high on the Aggies but fully aware I’m probably walking into heartbreak again. The Aggies offense has serious upside with dual-threat quarterback Marcel Reed, a healthy RB Le’Veon Moss and one of the best offensive lines in the country. Mike Elko’s defense collapsed late this past year, including a blown 17-point lead to USC, but they also shut out Texas in the second half and made key portal additions. Elko took over playcalling and publicly called out the issues: coverage, tackling and focus. If Texas A&M’s defense makes even a moderate jump, eight wins should be this team’s floor.

The bet: Indiana over 8.5 wins (+115)

There are only two clear roadblocks for Indiana this season, Iowa and Penn State. Everything else is winnable, especially with quarterback Fernando Mendoza stepping into an offensive system that just set school records for scoring and upgraded the offensive line and backfield. The defense returns All-American talent at every level and finished seventh in points allowed last year. With continuity, explosive skill talent and a proven head coach in Curt Cignetti, this is a program built to sustain success. At plus money, the Hoosiers upside is worth the risk.

The bet: Ole Miss to miss the playoff (-190)

The Rebels lost nearly their entire defensive identity with most of the secondary gone. Offensively, quarterback Austin Simmons is talented but unproven, and he’s playing behind an offensive line replacing four starters. That’s not a great setup with road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma on the schedule, both could expose the Rebels’ inexperience behind center and vulnerable defense. Add in home games against LSU and South Carolina, two teams with explosive skill players and physical fronts. Even if the Ole Miss offense holds up, the defense has too many question marks, and four potential losses means the playoff is likely out of reach.

The bet: Iowa State-Kansas State over 49.5

The Big 12 can be a volatile conference so let’s go straight to a Week 0 play. Iowa State’s run defense ranked 105th nationally this past year and now faces a Kansas State offense that thrives on the ground with dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson. Add in the Cyclones’ pass rush concerns, just 17 sacks in 14 games, and a reworked defensive line still searching for chemistry and it’s easy to see where explosive plays could come from. Both teams return experienced quarterbacks, and with defenses typically starting slow early in the season, especially internationally, this neutral-site opener has all the ingredients for a high scoring affair.

The bet: Texas Tech over 8.5 wins (-140)

Quarterback continuity with Behren Morton means steady production at the most important position. Offensive line upgrades give Morton time to attack vertically and keep the run game strong, utilizing added players to the receiving group and backfield. Adding LBs David Bailey and Romello Height and Lee Hunter up front, turn the the Red Raiders’ defensive front into a strength, while added secondary depth lets defensive coordinator Shiel Wood be aggressive and fix last year’s leaky pass defense. Texas Tech’s schedule is front-loaded, with a strong chance to start 4-0. From there, splitting the tougher road games gets them to 9-3, making over 8.5 wins worth backing despite the -140 price.

The bet: Tennessee over 8.5 wins (+105)

The Volunteers’ defense is legit, one of the most disruptive in the SEC and that gives them a reliable floor in a season full of toss-up games. With this sneaky athleticism, Joey Aguilar might be unproven at this level, but he could bring more mobility than last year’s starter and enough upside to keep the offense functional. While not a true dual-threat, he moves well in the pocket, can extend plays, and is comfortable throwing on the run. Aguilar has all the tools, but it’s still projection, not production. With a veteran defensive line, solid corners, and DB Boo Carter emerging as a weapon in all three phases, this is a team that can grind out wins even when their offense isn’t perfect. If Aguilar settles in early, a 9-3 record is within reach.

The bet: Boise State to win the Mountain West (-125)

Taking Boise State over 9.5 wins at -190 is a heavy tax with little reward. The Broncos have a 21-2 record in Mountain West play since 2022. Their toughest league opponents this season, UNLV, Fresno State and Colorado State, are all home games. If the Broncos go 7-1 or 8-0 in conference play, they will likely host the conference title game on their home blue turf. Even if they lose to Notre Dame and Air Force, they could still easily win the Mountain West. Consider skipping the juiced win total and take a bet on the clearer path for the Broncos against a soft conference schedule.

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