Both parties are in fantasy land – but Sunak’s tax attack on Labour is rich given what his government has cost voters
Before we get on to any of the numbers – from Rishi Sunak’s claim about Labour raising taxes by £2,000 to the more outlandish numbers going around today – here’s the most important thing you have to know right now.
The parties fighting this election have yet to publish their manifestos. They might come as soon as next week, but until those documents, with their shopping lists of confirmed policies, actually land, we are in a kind of policy no man’s land where each side is guessing (and sometimes plain making up stuff) about what the other side actually wants to implement if they win the election.
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And since all parties like to talk a lot about exciting new things they’d spend money on and not half as much about the taxes they’d raise to pay for all that stuff, it doesn’t take a mathematical whizz to realise that if you take them all quite literally then you can impute some pretty big “black holes” in their plans.
Those “black holes” matter because both Labour and Conservatives have signed up to fiscal rules preventing them from splurging without limit. So if there is a hole, the assumption is it would have to be filled by raising taxes.
However, in the absence of either manifestos or detailed costing plans, the best we can do about all this for the time being is to speculate.
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Does Sunak’s claim about Labour taxes stand up?
That brings us back to the claim Rishi Sunak made in last night’s debate, that Labour will raise everyone’s taxes by £2,000. This is a direct consequence of this information vacuum.
It comes from a “dossier” published by the Tories last month, back before the election was called, which purported to calculate all Labour’s proposed tax and spending plans.
The headline finding from that paper was that over the course of the next four years Labour had roughly £59bn of spending plans (at least as far as the Tories claimed) but only £20bn of revenue raising plans. That leaves a £39bn hole. Divide that £39bn by the number of households in the country (18.4m) and you get a figure of just over £2,000. Voila: £2,000 of unaccounted tax rises or spending cuts which, said Rishi Sunak last night, would inevitably be filled with extra taxes.
Now, there are all sorts of objections to the way the Conservatives have carried out this exercise. For one thing, they deployed a weapon Labour don’t have: because they’re the party of government they were able to ask Treasury civil servants to cost some of the Labour policies (or rather, the policies they think Labour will implement – remember, those manifestos haven’t yet been published!).
Today there has been a backlash – including from the Treasury’s permanent secretary himself – about the way the Tories have portrayed these sums.
What the Tories have already cost households
The £2,000 figure isn’t really a Treasury calculation or for that matter an “independent” one, as Mr Sunak called it last night. It’s a Conservative figure – but it was put together in part with figures commissioned from civil servants.
There were other objections: Labour say many of the policies in that Tory dossier won’t cost half as much as the Conservatives claim.
But actually, surprising as it might sound, what’s most striking about this “bombshell” is how small it really is. Less of a bombshell; more of a hand grenade.
While £2,000 sounds like a big number, it’s actually a cumulative total from four years. A far more representative figure to take from the dossier is £500 – the annual figure.
And while that’s not to be sniffed at (if you believe it – which you probably shouldn’t) it’s far, far smaller than the tax rises we’ve all experienced under this Conservative government since 2019. They amount, all told, to an average of around £3,000 a year per household or, if we grit our teeth and tot it up as the Tories did in their dossier, over £13,000 over the course of the parliament. Which rather dwarfs that £2,000 figure.
Labour attack dossier is even more outlandish
So anyway, you’re probably hoping now we’ve explained the £2,000 from last night that we could leave things there. But sorry, no.
Because, this being the murky pre-manifesto period, Labour have gone one further and produced their own dossier, purporting to show Conservative fiscal plans for the coming years. But while the initial Tory document was somewhat conservative (with a small c) about its numbers, the Labour version is far more outlandish.
It assumes, for instance, that the Conservatives are planning to abolish National Insurance and inheritance tax overnight if they are elected. These are mammoth tax changes which the Conservatives have never committed to (they have made some vague noises about intending to abolish NICs but not in the next parliament).
Anyway, the Labour document takes these and other policies and works out that that would imply a black hole of roughly £70bn a year or a whopping £270bn when you tot up the first four years of the parliament (they actually provide five years of numbers but for the sake of comparability I’m looking solely at the first four years, as the Tories’ dossier did).
Divide that by the number of households (as the Tory document did) and you end up with a grand total over those four years not of £2,000 but of a staggering £14,000 per household.
Parties trading blows in the realms of fiscal fantasy
At this stage, now we’ve completely departed from realistic policy, you’re probably wondering when this silly saga will be over. Sadly the answer is: not yet.
Because having seen the Labour response, the Conservatives produced a second dossier, essentially saying: “Well, if you’re going to make all sorts of outlandish assumptions about the stuff we’ve vaguely talked about then can we have a go too?”
This final dossier includes all sorts of policies no one seriously expects Labour to implement this parliament: cutting corporation tax to 12.5%, scrapping business rates altogether, introducing French-style union laws. Add this all up and you end up with a grand total of £211bn a year or – if you multiply that by four years across a parliament, £844bn. So the best part of a trillion pounds.
We are of course in the realms of fiscal fantasy at this stage, but if you take that cumulative total and divide that by the number of households in the country you end up with an utterly ridiculous figure of £46,000.
Whether either party thinks these dossiers will change anyone’s mind in this election remains to be seen.
Right now they mostly look like an attempt to send economics correspondents completely crazy.
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Both major parties are committed to tax rises
But the overarching point is as follows: both the major parties are committed to tax rises in the coming years. We know as much because the official Office for Budget Responsibility plans will see the tax burden increase sizeably, in large part because the main tax-free allowances are being frozen, ensuring everyone ends up paying more tax, once you adjust for inflation and rising wages.
These tax rises – the long-term consequences of the pandemic and the energy price guarantee – are quite likely to dwarf any measures we hear about in the coming manifestos.
But until we get those manifestos, the rest is, yes, speculation.
UK
Colombian man found guilty of double murder after leaving couple’s bodies in suitcases on Bristol bridge
A Colombian man has been found guilty of two murders after taking his victims’ bodies in suitcases to Bristol’s Clifton Suspension Bridge last year.
Yostin Mosquera was convicted of the murders of Paul Longworth and Albert Alfonso, who were killed in London on 8 July 2024.
Warning: This article contains graphic descriptions of murders.
(L-R) Yostin Mosquera murdered Albert Alfonso and Paul Longworth
Mosquera’s victims were 62-year-old Albert Alfonso and his civil partner, 71-year-old Paul Longworth. It is believed that Mosquera, a 35-year-old who worked in the adult film industry, first met Mr Alfonso online.
Paul Longworth and Albert Alfonso walk with Mosquera from their house. Pic: Met Police
The three men struck up a friendship, the couple visited Mosquera in Colombia, and they repeatedly flew Mosquera to the UK to stay with them at their flat in London.
While the men would take day-trips to tourist attractions, like Madame Tussauds, Mr Alfonso and Mosquera would engage in extreme sex together.
But in the weeks leading up to their murders, Mosquera was clearly planning his attacks.
He looked online for a freezer and, on the day of the killings, searched for: “Where on the head is a knock fatal?”
The prosecution argued he was financially motivated.
Mosquera has been convicted of two murders. Pic: Met Police
Mosquera repeatedly tried to find the price of the couple’s property in Scotts Road, Shepherd’s Bush, and stole money from Mr Alfonso after murdering him.
On 8 July 2024, Mosquera killed Mr Longworth by hitting him with a hammer, shattering his skull, before hiding his body in a divan bed.
That evening, during sex with Mr Alfonso, Mosquera stabbed him with a knife. A postmortem revealed 22 stab wounds.
Paul Longworth and Albert Alfonso. Pic: Met Police
All of this was recorded on cameras, which had been placed in the room by Mr Alfonso.
Mosquera then decapitated the bodies, the heads stored in a freezer which he had delivered on 9 July.
A handyman hired by Mosquera loads the victims’ bodies into a van in suitcases. Pic: Met Police
The other remains were put in suitcases and on 10 July, Mosquera hired a van with a driver to transport him and the bags to Clifton Suspension Bridge.
The prosecution argued Mosquera went to Bristol with the intention of throwing the bags off the bridge.
But, struggling with their weight, Mosquera caught the attention of passers-by, telling them the cases contained car parts.
But people noticed liquid leaking from the bags – blood.
Yostin Mosquera ran off after passers-by noticed the suitcases were leaking blood. Pic: Met Police
Mosquera was later arrested just after 2am on 13 July. Pic: Met Police
Mosquera ran off and was later arrested at Bristol Temple Meads station on 13 July 2024 and charged with both murders.
When the case came to trial, initially at the Old Bailey and then at Woolwich Crown Court, the gruesome footage of Mr Alfonso’s murder was repeatedly played to the jury.
Miranda Jollie, Senior Crown Prosecutor at the CPS, said she found the video “horrific”, but maintained that it was necessary to show the video because of Mosquera’s claims.
Mosquera denied the murders, but admitted killing Mr Alfonso – his defence team argued it was manslaughter by loss of control.
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However, the video evidence contradicts this claim.
It shows Mosquera had hidden the knife before sex, showing the attack was premeditated.
He was also calm as he attacked Mr Alfonso, who was taken off guard, and went to Mr Alfonso’s computer to try and steal from him as he lay dying.
In court, Mosquera argued, through a Spanish interpreter, that Mr Alfonso had repeatedly “raped him” and that Mr Longworth had been killed by Mr Alfonso.
But the prosecution argued there was no evidence to support these claims, while the couple’s relationship was unconventional, it was also “loving”, and Mr Alfonso would never have killed Mr Longworth.
A new public inquiry will “uncover the truth” behind the so-called “Battle of Orgreave”, a bloody fight between striking miners and police officers in the 1980s.
One hundred and twenty people were injured in the violent confrontation on 18 June 1984, outside a coal processing factory in Orgreave, South Yorkshire.
Five thousand miners clashed with an equal number of armed and mounted police during a day of fighting.
Police used horse charges, riot shields and batons against the picketers, even as some were retreating.
Masses of miners and police clashed during the day of fighting
Police officers on horses charged against protesters
In the aftermath, miners were blamed for the violence in what campaigners believe was an institutional “frame-up”.
“There were so many lies,” says Chris Peace, from campaign group Orgreave Truth and Justice, “and it’s a real historic moment to get to this stage.”
“There’s a lot of information already in the public domain,” she adds, “but there’s still some papers that are embargoed, which will hopefully now be brought to light.”
Campaigner Chris Peace
Although dozens of miners were arrested, trials against them all collapsed due to allegations of unreliable police evidence.
Campaigners say some involved have been left with “physical and psychological damage”, but until now, previous governments have refused calls for a public inquiry.
Launching the inquiry today, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper told Sky Newsi that she wanted to “make sure” campaigners now got “proper answers”.
“We’ve obviously had unanswered questions about what happened at Orgreave for over 40 years,” Ms Cooper says, “and when we were elected to government, we determined to take this forward.”
A police officer tackling a miner
A bleeding protester being led away by police during the ‘Battle of Orgreave’
The Bishop of Sheffield, Pete Wilcox, will chair the inquiry
The inquiry will be a statutory one, meaning that witnesses will be compelled to come and give evidence, and chaired by the Bishop of Sheffield, Pete Wilcox.
“I’m really happy,” says Carl Parkinson, a former miner who was at Orgreave on the day of the clash, “but why has it took so long?”
“A lot of those colleagues and close friends have passed away, and they’ll never get to see any outcome.”
Former miner Carl Parkinson
Former miner Chris Skidmore
Mr Parkinson and Chris Skidmore, who was also there that day, were among the group of campaigners informed first-hand by Ms Cooper about the public inquiry at the Orgreave site.
“It wasn’t frightening to start off with,” Mr Skidmore remembers of the day itself, “but then what I noticed was the amount of police officers who had no identification numbers on. It all felt planned.”
“And it wasn’t just one truncheon,” says Mr Parkinson, “there were about 30, or 40. And it was simultaneous, like it was orchestrated – just boom, boom, boom, boom.
“And there’s lads with a split down their heads for no good reason, they’d done nothing wrong. We were just there to peacefully picket.”
Police used riot shields against the picketers, even as some were retreating
In the aftermath of the fighting, miners were blamed for the violence
In the intervening years, South Yorkshire Police have paid more than £400,000 in compensation to affected miners and their families.
But no official inquiry has ever looked at the documents surrounding the day’s events, the lead-up to it and the aftermath.
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“We need to have trust and confidence restored in the police,” says South Yorkshire Mayor Oliver Coppard, “and part of that is about people, like this campaign, getting the justice that they deserve.
“Obviously, we’ve had things like Hillsborough, CSE [Child Sexual Exploitation] in Rotherham, and we want to turn the page.”
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