Before we get on to any of the numbers – from Rishi Sunak’s claim about Labour raising taxes by £2,000 to the more outlandish numbers going around today – here’s the most important thing you have to know right now.
The parties fighting this election have yet to publish their manifestos. They might come as soon as next week, but until those documents, with their shopping lists of confirmed policies, actually land, we are in a kind of policy no man’s land where each side is guessing (and sometimes plain making up stuff) about what the other side actually wants to implement if they win the election.
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And since all parties like to talk a lot about exciting new things they’d spend money on and not half as much about the taxes they’d raise to pay for all that stuff, it doesn’t take a mathematical whizz to realise that if you take them all quite literally then you can impute some pretty big “black holes” in their plans.
Those “black holes” matter because both Labour and Conservatives have signed up to fiscal rules preventing them from splurging without limit. So if there is a hole, the assumption is it would have to be filled by raising taxes.
However, in the absence of either manifestos or detailed costing plans, the best we can do about all this for the time being is to speculate.
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Does Sunak’s claim about Labour taxes stand up?
That brings us back to the claim Rishi Sunak made in last night’s debate, that Labour will raise everyone’s taxes by £2,000. This is a direct consequence of this information vacuum.
It comes from a “dossier” published by the Tories last month, back before the election was called, which purported to calculate all Labour’s proposed tax and spending plans.
The headline finding from that paper was that over the course of the next four years Labour had roughly £59bn of spending plans (at least as far as the Tories claimed) but only £20bn of revenue raising plans. That leaves a £39bn hole. Divide that £39bn by the number of households in the country (18.4m) and you get a figure of just over £2,000. Voila: £2,000 of unaccounted tax rises or spending cuts which, said Rishi Sunak last night, would inevitably be filled with extra taxes.
Now, there are all sorts of objections to the way the Conservatives have carried out this exercise. For one thing, they deployed a weapon Labour don’t have: because they’re the party of government they were able to ask Treasury civil servants to cost some of the Labour policies (or rather, the policies they think Labour will implement – remember, those manifestos haven’t yet been published!).
Today there has been a backlash – including from the Treasury’s permanent secretary himself – about the way the Tories have portrayed these sums.
What the Tories have already cost households
The £2,000 figure isn’t really a Treasury calculation or for that matter an “independent” one, as Mr Sunak called it last night. It’s a Conservative figure – but it was put together in part with figures commissioned from civil servants.
There were other objections: Labour say many of the policies in that Tory dossier won’t cost half as much as the Conservatives claim.
But actually, surprising as it might sound, what’s most striking about this “bombshell” is how small it really is. Less of a bombshell; more of a hand grenade.
While £2,000 sounds like a big number, it’s actually a cumulative total from four years. A far more representative figure to take from the dossier is £500 – the annual figure.
And while that’s not to be sniffed at (if you believe it – which you probably shouldn’t) it’s far, far smaller than the tax rises we’ve all experienced under this Conservative government since 2019. They amount, all told, to an average of around £3,000 a year per household or, if we grit our teeth and tot it up as the Tories did in their dossier, over £13,000 over the course of the parliament. Which rather dwarfs that £2,000 figure.
Labour attack dossier is even more outlandish
So anyway, you’re probably hoping now we’ve explained the £2,000 from last night that we could leave things there. But sorry, no.
Because, this being the murky pre-manifesto period, Labour have gone one further and produced their own dossier, purporting to show Conservative fiscal plans for the coming years. But while the initial Tory document was somewhat conservative (with a small c) about its numbers, the Labour version is far more outlandish.
It assumes, for instance, that the Conservatives are planning to abolish National Insurance and inheritance tax overnight if they are elected. These are mammoth tax changes which the Conservatives have never committed to (they have made some vague noises about intending to abolish NICs but not in the next parliament).
Anyway, the Labour document takes these and other policies and works out that that would imply a black hole of roughly £70bn a year or a whopping £270bn when you tot up the first four years of the parliament (they actually provide five years of numbers but for the sake of comparability I’m looking solely at the first four years, as the Tories’ dossier did).
Divide that by the number of households (as the Tory document did) and you end up with a grand total over those four years not of £2,000 but of a staggering £14,000 per household.
Parties trading blows in the realms of fiscal fantasy
At this stage, now we’ve completely departed from realistic policy, you’re probably wondering when this silly saga will be over. Sadly the answer is: not yet.
Because having seen the Labour response, the Conservatives produced a second dossier, essentially saying: “Well, if you’re going to make all sorts of outlandish assumptions about the stuff we’ve vaguely talked about then can we have a go too?”
This final dossier includes all sorts of policies no one seriously expects Labour to implement this parliament: cutting corporation tax to 12.5%, scrapping business rates altogether, introducing French-style union laws. Add this all up and you end up with a grand total of £211bn a year or – if you multiply that by four years across a parliament, £844bn. So the best part of a trillion pounds.
We are of course in the realms of fiscal fantasy at this stage, but if you take that cumulative total and divide that by the number of households in the country you end up with an utterly ridiculous figure of £46,000.
Whether either party thinks these dossiers will change anyone’s mind in this election remains to be seen.
Right now they mostly look like an attempt to send economics correspondents completely crazy.
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Both major parties are committed to tax rises
But the overarching point is as follows: both the major parties are committed to tax rises in the coming years. We know as much because the official Office for Budget Responsibility plans will see the tax burden increase sizeably, in large part because the main tax-free allowances are being frozen, ensuring everyone ends up paying more tax, once you adjust for inflation and rising wages.
These tax rises – the long-term consequences of the pandemic and the energy price guarantee – are quite likely to dwarf any measures we hear about in the coming manifestos.
But until we get those manifestos, the rest is, yes, speculation.
A grief-stricken family has told Sky News they want “someone to take accountability” for the death of Lewis Stone, a retired butcher who was killed by a secure psychiatric unit patient released 10 days earlier.
In her first TV interview, Mr Stone’s step-daughter Vicki Lindsay said they were calling for an internal NHS Trust report to be made public so that lessons can be learned.
“The thought of anybody going through what we’ve gone through for the last six years… We’re living a life sentence,” she said.
On 28 February 2019, Lewis Stone was where he loved being most – the remote town of Borth on the west coast of Wales near Aberystwyth. It’s where he and his wife, Elizabeth, had a holiday home and planned to retire.
Lewis’s step-daughter, Vicki Lindsay, says the family wants an apology and accountability
That morning, Lewis left for his daily pre-breakfast walk with his beloved dog Jock along the River Leri and never came home.
He had been stabbed multiple times, and despite repeated attempts to save his life, he died in hospital three months later.
Lewis’s killer, David Fleet, was sectioned under the Mental Health Act after admitting manslaughter with diminished responsibility.
Sentencing, Judge Paul Thomas QC said Lewis had been in the wrong place at the wrong time.
Lewis’s family disagrees: “I just want somebody to say, ‘Yes, we messed up, we’re sorry. It doesn’t change things but we’re sorry’.
“We’ve had none of that. Mum’s had nothing, no support, she’s had nothing. That’s all we want, an admission.”
Elizabeth and Lewis Stone, with their step-daughter Vicki Lindsay (centre), in happier times
Lewis Stone and his grand-daughter Sammy
Fleet was suffering from paranoid schizophrenia at the time of the attack and told psychiatrists if he had not stabbed Mr Stone, the voices in his head “were going to kill him”.
Four months earlier, he had been detained under the Mental Health Act, but despite concerns raised by his own family, it was decided he should be treated at home.
The Hywel Dda health board told Sky News they don’t intend to release the internal report into Fleet’s care.
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Sharon Daniel, the Interim Executive Director for Nursing, Quality and Patient Experience, said: “The Duty of Candour for patients came into force in Wales in April 2023. At the time of this incident and concern, we fulfilled our duties to be open.”
When asked if they would be willing to apologise to both affected families, Ms Daniel said: “In the event of serious incidents, we have robust processes in place for reviewing internally, identifying any issues, and where appropriate preparing an improvement plan to prevent such an occurrence in the future. We regret such incidents and always seek to learn from them.”
In February, victims’ families in Nottingham won their fight for an NHS review into the care of paranoid schizophrenic Valdo Calocane, who killed three people, to be made public. It exposed a catalogue of errors and systemic failings.
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In February, Sky’s Sarah-Jane Mee spoke to two mothers of two people killed by paranoid schizophrenic Valdo Calocane
The family’s adviser and former NHS lawyer Radd Seiger, who also advised the Nottingham families, told Sky News the two cases have striking similarities: “Sunlight is the best disinfectant when there are problems in the NHS.
“Let’s have these things out in the open. Yes, they’re uncomfortable, but that’s the only way the NHS is going to learn from its mistakes.
“It’s no good them marking their own homework in private where journalists, or lawyers, or families don’t get to scrutinise these things because we see that these things keep happening over and over and over.”
David Fleet’s family declined an opportunity to speak to Sky News for this report.
The Welsh government said: “We are fully committed to openness and transparency in line with the Duty of Candour to ensure lessons are learned. We have also invested in improving both the quality and safety of mental health care in Wales.”
A host of local and mayoral elections will be taking place across England on Thursday 1 May – the first voting day since the general election last year.
There will also be a new Member of Parliament.
Here is everything you need to know – from what’s at stake to how you can vote.
Local elections
There will be local elections in 23 of England’s 317 local authorities on 1 May.
Some are slightly different to others, depending on the type of authority.
Here is the full list:
County councils
• Cambridgeshire
• Derbyshire
• Devon
• Gloucestershire
• Hertfordshire
• Kent
• Lancashire
• Leicestershire
• Lincolnshire
• Nottinghamshire
• Oxfordshire
• Staffordshire
• Warwickshire
• Worcestershire
Unitary authorities
• Buckinghamshire
• Cornwall
• County Durham
• North Northamptonshire
• Northumberland
• Shropshire
• West Northamptonshire
• Wiltshire
Metropolitan district
• Doncaster
The Isles of Scilly, which has a unique governance structure, is also holding a local election of its own.
Additionally, about 1,270 parish councils will be holding elections.
What is the difference between the types of authorities?
A county council is part of a two-tier local government system, taking care of things that affect the whole county, such as:
• Education
• Transport
• Planning
• Fire and public safety
• Social care
• Libraries
• Waste management
• Trading standards
They work alongside the other, lower-tier councils – district, borough or city – that take care of things on a smaller scale, such as:
• Rubbish collection
• Recycling
• Council tax collections
• Housing
• Planning applications
A unitary authority is a one-tier local government, where the services of a county council and the other smaller councils listed above are combined.
A metropolitan district has a council that oversees all services, similar to a unitary authority – but has a mayor with a role similar to that of local councils.
The mayors for Doncaster and North Tyneside are single authority, making them the political leader of the council and leaving them responsible for delivering local council services.
Metro mayors chair combined authorities made up of several local councils.
Metro mayor election
There are six mayoral elections taking place on 1 May, two of which are the first ever in their areas.
One of them is for the West of England, where the current mayor is Dan Norris, who was elected as a Labour MP when he defeated Jacob Rees-Mogg to win the seat of North East Somerset and Hanham in last year’s general election.
Labour MP Dan Norris. File pic: PA
Mr Norris, who has been mayor since 2021, has to vacate the role because the Labour Party introduced rules to prevent serving MPs from standing as mayoral candidates.
There is another mayoral election in Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, while the first mayors for Hull and East Yorkshire and Greater Lincolnshire will be chosen after devolution deals were agreed in 2023, bringing together local councils in both areas to create larger authorities.
There will also be elections for the next mayor of Doncaster and North Tyneside.
New MP for Runcorn and Helsby
A by-election is also being held in Runcorn and Helsby after Labour’s Mike Amesbury agreed to stand down following his conviction for punching a man in the street.
Amesbury, who was suspended from the Labour Party, was jailed on 24 February for 10 weeks after he pleaded guilty to assault by beating of 45-year-old Paul Fellows in Main Street, Frodsham, Cheshire, in the early hours of 26 October.
However, following an appeal, his sentence was suspended for two years.
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Amesbury steps down as MP
His resignation means Karen Shore, the deputy leader of Cheshire West and Chester Council, will run for Labour in the by-election, while the Conservatives are putting forward Sean Houlston, a membership services manager for the National Federation of Builders, and Sarah Pochin, a former Cheshire East councillor, is Reform’s candidate.
Amesbury came first in Runcorn and Helsby with 22,358 votes at the 2024 general election – equating to 52.9% of the electorate.
Reform UK came in second with 7,662 votes (18.1%) and the Tories in third with 6,756 votes (16%).
Outcomes could have significant national impact
The elections will be the first big test of all the parties since the general election, which fundamentally redrew the UK’s political landscape with a new world of multiparty politics.
The Tories have the most to lose as they hold 20 of the 23 local authorities up for grabs on 1 May.
And for the first time in a long time, Labour and the Conservatives are facing a genuine threat from other parties.
YouGov conducted exclusive polling for Sky News to get a sense of how the country was feeling ahead of the elections, surveying 2,178 adults in the UK on 6 and 7 April.
Here is the voting intention poll:
• Labour: 24% (no change)
• Reform UK: 23% (no change)
• Conservatives: 22% (+1)
• Liberal Democrats: 17% (+3)
• Green Party: 9% (-2)
It suggests that Nigel Farage’s Reform UK could be Labour’s closest competitor, with Kemi Badenoch trailing as she leads the Conservatives through elections for the first time, while the Lib Dems have closed the gap on the three top parties.
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How do I register to vote?
You have until 11.59pm on Friday to register to vote if you haven’t already.
You must be aged 16 or over (or 14 or over in Scotland and Wales) to register to vote – but to vote for a new MP you must be at least 18.
You can register if you are:
• A British citizen
• An Irish or EU citizen living in the UK
• A Commonwealth citizen who has permission to enter or stay in the UK, or who does not need permission
• A citizen of another country living in Scotland or Wales who has permission to enter or stay in the UK, or who does not need permission
• You can be an overseas voter if you previously lived in the UK and are a British citizen.
The easiest and quickest way to register is online.
Alternatively, you can use a paper form – though it may be too close to the deadline for you to complete this by the deadline.
You can do it by contacting your local Electoral Registration Office and asking them to post a form to you. Or you can print your own form off. You’ll then need to return the completed form to your local Electoral Registration Office.
How can I cast my vote?
There are three ways to vote:
In person at your local polling station
You’ll be sent a poll card just before an election or referendum telling you when to vote and at which polling station. It will usually be in a public building, such as a school or local hall, near your home.
You can only vote at the polling station allocated to your address. This will be shown on your poll card. You can also enter your postcode on this website to find out where your polling station is.
You will be able to cast your vote any time between 7am and 10pm
You must bring a form of photo ID with you in order to vote. There are 22 accepted types of ID.
At the polling station, you will need to give your name and address to staff and show them your photo ID.
There will be instructions in the polling booth telling you exactly how to cast your vote.
Postal vote
You can register to vote by post for any reason, including that you simply don’t want to go to a polling station on the day.
You need to apply for this by 5pm on 14 April and can do so by clicking here.
Postal votes now expire every three years, so if you registered to do so more than three years ago, you will need to re-apply.
By proxy
This is where you apply for someone to vote on your behalf if you cannot go to the polling station in person and do not want to or can’t vote by post.
You and your proxy must both be registered to vote in the UK before you can apply.
The deadline to apply for proxy voting in the May 1 elections is 5pm on 23 April, and you can apply here.
Which elections have been postponed – and why?
Elections for county councils in the following areas have been postponed until May 2026:
• Norfolk
• Suffolk
• Essex
• Thurrock
• Surrey
• East and West Sussex
• Hampshire
• Isle of Wight
Most areas of the UK are now covered by one-tier systems such as unitary authorities, but there are still 21 county councils.
The government is pushing for a “devolution revolution”, meaning the remaining county councils are being encouraged to merge with other local authorities to become unitary authorities.
So in December last year, the government told county councils they could request to postpone their elections set for 1 May if they were trying to reorganise into one-tier systems.
While 16 county councils requested to postpone, only the eight listed above were successful.
A new spit test for prostate cancer which can be done at home may be better than current testing methods, a study suggests.
Experts have developed a simple saliva test which analyses genetic variants in a man’s DNA, which appears to perform better than the current method for assessing prostate cancer risk.
Currently, the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) blood test is used to check for prostate conditions, including prostate cancer or an enlarged prostate.
Routine testing is not currently available on the NHS, but patients may be offered a PSA test if a GP suspects they have prostate cancer. Men over 50 can ask their GP for a PSA test even if they do not have symptoms.
But experts have said the new saliva test could be used as an additional screening tool, as it reduced the number of false positive results and detected a higher proportion of aggressive cancers than the PSA test.
It could lead to fewer men being sent for unnecessary testing, according to researchers at The Institute of Cancer Research, London, and The Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust.
They tested the effectiveness of a new tool they had developed called a polygenic risk score, which uses spit to assess 130 genetic variants known to be associated with an increased risk of prostate cancer, which can then determine whether or not a person is at high risk of the disease.
The new spit test for prostate cancer. Pic: PA
Test saved lives of two brothers
Taking part in the trial saved the lives of two brothers.
Dheeresh Turnbull said traditional methods to assess prostate cancer deemed he had a low risk of disease, but the new spit test helped the 71-year-old discover he actually had a life-threatening tumour in his prostate.
After finding out the news, his brother Joel Turnbull also took part in the study and discovered he had an aggressive prostate tumour.
“It’s incredible to think that because of this study two lives have now been saved in my family,” Dheeresh said.
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How the tool was assessed
The brothers were among 6,300 men aged 55 to 69 in the UK who were assessed by the tool as part of the study.
Of those, 745 (12%) were deemed to have a high risk score and were invited to have prostate cancer screening, including an MRI scan and a biopsy.
Prostate cancer was detected in 187 of the 468 who took up the offer, and of those, 103 had cancer that was deemed to be “higher risk”, so treatment was offered.
Of the 187 men, 118 had a PSA level below 3.0ug/L – which is considered “normal” and would typically indicate no further screening is required.
Test could ‘turn the tide on prostate cancer’
Writing in the New England Journal of Medicine, the researchers said cancer “would not have been detected” in 74 of the men using the “diagnostics pathway” currently in use in the UK – which includes a high PSA level and an MRI.
They concluded that for the men with the highest genetic risk, the test falsely identified fewer people with prostate cancer than the PSA test and picked up people with cancer who would have been missed by the PSA test alone.
It detected a higher proportion of aggressive cancers than the PSA test and also accurately identified men with prostate cancer who were missed by an MRI scan.
Professor Ros Eeles, from the Institute of Cancer Research, London, and The Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, said: “With this test, it could be possible to turn the tide on prostate cancer.
“We have shown that a relatively simple, inexpensive spit test to identify men of European heritage at higher risk due to their genetic make-up is an effective tool to catch prostate cancer early.
Some 55,000 cases of prostate cancer are diagnosed each year in the UK, with around 12,000 men in the UK dying from the disease annually, according to Cancer Research UK.
It comes after Health Secretary Wes Streeting suggested he would support a national prostate cancer screening programme for men at higher risk of disease if it is backed by the evidence. The UK’s National Screening Committee is currently assessing whether or not such a programme should be rolled out.
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