Both parties are in fantasy land – but Sunak’s tax attack on Labour is rich given what his government has cost voters
Before we get on to any of the numbers – from Rishi Sunak’s claim about Labour raising taxes by £2,000 to the more outlandish numbers going around today – here’s the most important thing you have to know right now.
The parties fighting this election have yet to publish their manifestos. They might come as soon as next week, but until those documents, with their shopping lists of confirmed policies, actually land, we are in a kind of policy no man’s land where each side is guessing (and sometimes plain making up stuff) about what the other side actually wants to implement if they win the election.
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And since all parties like to talk a lot about exciting new things they’d spend money on and not half as much about the taxes they’d raise to pay for all that stuff, it doesn’t take a mathematical whizz to realise that if you take them all quite literally then you can impute some pretty big “black holes” in their plans.
Those “black holes” matter because both Labour and Conservatives have signed up to fiscal rules preventing them from splurging without limit. So if there is a hole, the assumption is it would have to be filled by raising taxes.
However, in the absence of either manifestos or detailed costing plans, the best we can do about all this for the time being is to speculate.
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Does Sunak’s claim about Labour taxes stand up?
That brings us back to the claim Rishi Sunak made in last night’s debate, that Labour will raise everyone’s taxes by £2,000. This is a direct consequence of this information vacuum.
It comes from a “dossier” published by the Tories last month, back before the election was called, which purported to calculate all Labour’s proposed tax and spending plans.
The headline finding from that paper was that over the course of the next four years Labour had roughly £59bn of spending plans (at least as far as the Tories claimed) but only £20bn of revenue raising plans. That leaves a £39bn hole. Divide that £39bn by the number of households in the country (18.4m) and you get a figure of just over £2,000. Voila: £2,000 of unaccounted tax rises or spending cuts which, said Rishi Sunak last night, would inevitably be filled with extra taxes.
Now, there are all sorts of objections to the way the Conservatives have carried out this exercise. For one thing, they deployed a weapon Labour don’t have: because they’re the party of government they were able to ask Treasury civil servants to cost some of the Labour policies (or rather, the policies they think Labour will implement – remember, those manifestos haven’t yet been published!).
Today there has been a backlash – including from the Treasury’s permanent secretary himself – about the way the Tories have portrayed these sums.
What the Tories have already cost households
The £2,000 figure isn’t really a Treasury calculation or for that matter an “independent” one, as Mr Sunak called it last night. It’s a Conservative figure – but it was put together in part with figures commissioned from civil servants.
There were other objections: Labour say many of the policies in that Tory dossier won’t cost half as much as the Conservatives claim.
But actually, surprising as it might sound, what’s most striking about this “bombshell” is how small it really is. Less of a bombshell; more of a hand grenade.
While £2,000 sounds like a big number, it’s actually a cumulative total from four years. A far more representative figure to take from the dossier is £500 – the annual figure.
And while that’s not to be sniffed at (if you believe it – which you probably shouldn’t) it’s far, far smaller than the tax rises we’ve all experienced under this Conservative government since 2019. They amount, all told, to an average of around £3,000 a year per household or, if we grit our teeth and tot it up as the Tories did in their dossier, over £13,000 over the course of the parliament. Which rather dwarfs that £2,000 figure.
Labour attack dossier is even more outlandish
So anyway, you’re probably hoping now we’ve explained the £2,000 from last night that we could leave things there. But sorry, no.
Because, this being the murky pre-manifesto period, Labour have gone one further and produced their own dossier, purporting to show Conservative fiscal plans for the coming years. But while the initial Tory document was somewhat conservative (with a small c) about its numbers, the Labour version is far more outlandish.
It assumes, for instance, that the Conservatives are planning to abolish National Insurance and inheritance tax overnight if they are elected. These are mammoth tax changes which the Conservatives have never committed to (they have made some vague noises about intending to abolish NICs but not in the next parliament).
Anyway, the Labour document takes these and other policies and works out that that would imply a black hole of roughly £70bn a year or a whopping £270bn when you tot up the first four years of the parliament (they actually provide five years of numbers but for the sake of comparability I’m looking solely at the first four years, as the Tories’ dossier did).
Divide that by the number of households (as the Tory document did) and you end up with a grand total over those four years not of £2,000 but of a staggering £14,000 per household.
Parties trading blows in the realms of fiscal fantasy
At this stage, now we’ve completely departed from realistic policy, you’re probably wondering when this silly saga will be over. Sadly the answer is: not yet.
Because having seen the Labour response, the Conservatives produced a second dossier, essentially saying: “Well, if you’re going to make all sorts of outlandish assumptions about the stuff we’ve vaguely talked about then can we have a go too?”
This final dossier includes all sorts of policies no one seriously expects Labour to implement this parliament: cutting corporation tax to 12.5%, scrapping business rates altogether, introducing French-style union laws. Add this all up and you end up with a grand total of £211bn a year or – if you multiply that by four years across a parliament, £844bn. So the best part of a trillion pounds.
We are of course in the realms of fiscal fantasy at this stage, but if you take that cumulative total and divide that by the number of households in the country you end up with an utterly ridiculous figure of £46,000.
Whether either party thinks these dossiers will change anyone’s mind in this election remains to be seen.
Right now they mostly look like an attempt to send economics correspondents completely crazy.
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Both major parties are committed to tax rises
But the overarching point is as follows: both the major parties are committed to tax rises in the coming years. We know as much because the official Office for Budget Responsibility plans will see the tax burden increase sizeably, in large part because the main tax-free allowances are being frozen, ensuring everyone ends up paying more tax, once you adjust for inflation and rising wages.
These tax rises – the long-term consequences of the pandemic and the energy price guarantee – are quite likely to dwarf any measures we hear about in the coming manifestos.
But until we get those manifestos, the rest is, yes, speculation.
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Gregg Wallace: Over half of allegations against MasterChef presenter upheld, including one of unwanted physical contact
An investigation into Gregg Wallace’s “inappropriate behaviour” on MasterChef has found more than half of the allegations against him have been substantiated, including one of “unwanted physical contact”.
MasterChef’s production company Banijay UK shared a summary of its report into historical allegations of misconduct against the 60-year-old presenter, carried out by independent law firm Lewis Silkin over seven months.
The report said the number of sustained allegations made Wallace’s return to MasterChef “untenable”.
Last week it emerged Wallace had been sacked as MasterChef presenter, with reports of more than 50 fresh allegations against him.
The investigation heard evidence from 78 witnesses, including 41 complainants. The investigations team spoke to Wallace three times for the report, conducting 14 hours of interviews with him.
There were 83 allegations against Wallace, and 45 of them were upheld. All were related to MasterChef.
The upheld allegations were:
• Twelve claims he made inappropriate jokes and innuendo;
• Sixteen reports he made sexually explicit comments;
• Two allegations that he made sexualised comments to or about someone;
• Four complaints that he made culturally insensitive or racist comments;
• Three claims that he was in a state of undress;
• Seven allegations of bullying;
• One allegation of unwanted touching.
Nearly all the allegations against Wallace were related to behaviour which is said to have occurred between 2005 and 2018, with just one substantiated allegation taking place after 2018.
Wallace and Anne-Marie Sterpini in 2014
Ahead of the publication of the summary, Wallace had said he had been “cleared of the most serious and sensational accusations” made against him.
He also said his neurodiversity had “now formally (been) diagnosed as autism”, saying in the social media post that it was “suspected and discussed by colleagues across countless seasons of MasterChef”.
BBC held no ‘central’ information over Wallace concerns
Additionally, the report summary found there were 10 standalone allegations about other people between 2012 and 2018/2019, two of which were substantiated. These were unrelated to Wallace, and those people were not named in the summary.
The investigation found that complaints had previously been raised with the production company between 2005 and 2024.
Gregg Wallace on MasterChef. Pic: BBC/ Shine TV 2024
While the report flagged inadequate reporting procedures before 2016, when Endemol merged with Shine ahead of Banijay acquiring Endemol Shine in 2020, it said there were significant improvements to HR processes and training after 2016.
The investigation said some formal action was taken by the BBC in 2017, but it also noted the corporation held no information regarding concerns raised over Wallace centrally, resulting in issues being addressed as a first offence.
Sky News has tried to contact Gregg Wallace today.
Gregg Wallace after being made a Member of the Order of the British Empire (MBE) by the Princess Royal in an investiture ceremony at Windsor Castle. Picture date: Tuesday February 28, 2023.
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Picture by: Andrew Matthews/PA Archive/PA Images
Responding to the findings of the report, the BBC said the corporation had “no plans to work with [Wallace] in future”, saying his behaviour “falls below the values of the BBC”.
The BBC said “opportunities were missed” to address Wallace’s behaviour, adding, “We accept more could and should have been done sooner”.
Concerning the allegations against other individuals flagged in the report, the BBC said they had asked Banijay UK to take action to address these issues, and said it would “be completed as a priority”.
The corporation has yet to decide if the unseen MasterChef series that was filmed with Wallace last year will still be aired.
Production staff deserve ‘much, much better’
Banijay UK chief executive Patrick Holland called the report “uncomfortable reading”, but said its findings provided “valuable insight” for production teams moving forward.
In a nod to Wallace’s recent autism spectrum disorder diagnosis, Mr Holland said Wallace’s neurodiversity was “relevant to certain behaviours identified in the report”, admitting “the production could have done more to identify, manage and communicate patterns of inappropriate behaviour”.
Philippa Childs, head of creative industries union Bectu, said the report findings made it clear that “inappropriate behaviour has gone unchecked for far too long,” adding: “This is a real failure by Banijay to take these issues seriously and act accordingly”.
Ms Childs said the report highlighted the precarious position of production staff, the majority of whom are freelance workers, who she said deserve “much, much better”.
Wallace was the original presenter of the BBC show Saturday Kitchen in 2002 and has also featured on Eat Well For Less?, Inside The Factory, Turn Back Time, Harvest and Supermarket Secrets.
He was best known, however, for presenting MasterChef, MasterChef: The Professionals, and Celebrity MasterChef.
Warning: This article contains details readers may find distressing.
An “evil” postman who moaned about being lonely hours before he severed his girlfriend’s head and tried to dismember her body has been jailed for a minimum of 23 years.
Ewan Methven murdered 21-year-old Phoenix Spencer-Horn in the flat they shared in East Kilbride, South Lanarkshire, in November last year.
The High Court in Glasgow heard the killer dumped his partner’s body parts in their hallway and failed to call emergency services for two days.
Phoenix Spencer-Horn was murdered in November
The 27-year-old then bought drugs, watched pornography and sent sickening texts to Phoenix’s worried mum pretending she was still alive.
Phoenix was stabbed 20 times – including 10 times in the face – using three knives in an attack that unfolded after she returned from her waitressing job in Lanarkshire.
The 21-year-old had described Methven as her “soulmate” on social media, saying in one TikTok video: “Life is so much more beautiful and full of colour with you.”
A few months later she was murdered by the same man she had been in a relationship with for two years.
Ewan Methven was jailed on Monday. Pic: Police Scotland
Methven received a life sentence with at least 23 years behind bars when he retuned to the dock on Monday.
The judge, Lord Matthews, described it as a “dreadful crime”.
He told Methven: “You were a trusted member of her family, but you betrayed that trust and robbed her of life in the cruellest way.
“Not content with what you had done to her, you robbed her of all dignity in death by decapitating her and trying to dismember her in an attempt to defeat the ends of justice.”
The pair had been in a relationship for two years
Lord Matthews highlighted victim impact statements supplied by Phoenix’s family and said he had “rarely read such outpourings of grief”.
The judge said: “The way you treated this innocent young woman after her death meant that her family did not even have the comfort of saying goodbye to her.”
He added: “I have this morning seen a letter written by you, but it answers none of the questions which must be plaguing the family. You blame the effect of substances but that is no excuse.”
‘Personification of evil’
Sky News has interviewed the couple’s neighbour who lives directly next door.
Toni Brown, 25, described the horror of discovering what happened.
She said: “I think I stayed out of the house for about a week after that. I couldn’t even sit.
“It’s horrific. It gives me shivers thinking about it. It is crazy to think I stayed next door to a monster like that.
“What scares me the most is knowing she was lay there and I was in here oblivious.”
Neighbour Toni Brown spoke to Sky News
Asked whether she heard any noises or violence around the time of the murder, Ms Brown said: “There was a bad smell in my house in the early hours of the morning she was found.
“There was a bad smell in my kitchen basically where the walls join together.”
Methven’s own defence lawyer told the court that society will see the killer as the “personification of evil”.
When he eventually called 999, he claimed to have suffered a drug-induced blackout during the violent killing.
Ms Spencer-Horn was murdered by the man she once called her ‘soulmate’
Another life lost to gender-based violence
The case has raised questions once again about the growing prevalence of gender-based violence.
Fiona Drouet’s daughter Emily was 18 when she took her own life at university in Aberdeen in 2016, days after being choked and slapped by her ex-boyfriend.
Angus Milligan was later convicted of physical and psychological abuse.
Fiona Drouet’s daughter was a victim of physical abuse from an ex-boyfriend
Ms Drouet, who now campaigns on violence against women across the UK and Ireland, has set up a charity called Emily’s Test in her daughter’s name.
Reacting to the death of Ms Spencer-Horn, Ms Drouet told Sky News: “There is another mother and father that have just been plunged into utter hell.
“Somebody once said to me that if God came to you and said, ‘I am going to give you this beautiful daughter, but you’ll only have her for 18 years and then we need to take her back, would you still want her?’ and I would take those 18 years and go through the pain rather than have nothing.
“Although just now that probably offers no words of comfort for Phoenix’s parents, maybe one day it can.”
If you suspect you are being abused and need to speak to someone, there are people who can help you, including The National Domestic Violence Helpline on 0808 2000 247 or Women’s Aid online.
A military exercise bringing together more than 35,000 personnel across 19 different nations, including the UK, is under way in Australia – with Chinese spy ships expected to watch.
The drill – the largest-ever war fighting exercise to take place in Australia – officially started on Sunday with a ceremony in Sydney.
The biennial drill, known as Exercise Talisman Sabre, started in 2005 as a joint exercise between the US and Australia.
This year, personnel from Canada, Fiji, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand, Tonga, and the United Kingdom have joined.
The Ministry of Defence said the UK Carrier Strike Group, including HMS Prince of Wales and HMS Richmond, would be training with forces from New Zealand, among others, ahead of the exercise.
The UK’s Carrier Strike Group taking part in Exercise Talisman Sabre. Pic: X/@COMUKCSG
“F-35B jets and Merlin helicopters, part of a wider multinational force, are ready to defend and deepen ties across the Indo-Pacific under Operation Highmast,” said a post on the MoD’s X account.
This morning, the Carrier Strike Group (CSG) said on its own X account: “Exercise #TalismanSabre25 begins! UK #CSG25 is excited to join with 18 partner nations and over 35,000 military personnel for the largest iteration of the exercise in its history.”
An Australian Airforce F35 fighter jet participates in Exercise Talisman Sabre 2025. Pic: AP
The 19 countries will take part in the exercise over three weeks, Australia’s defence department said on Sunday, with China expected to monitor activities.
The drills will also take place in neighbouring Papua New Guinea, making it the first time Talisman Sabre activities have been held outside Australia.
Chinese ships have monitored naval exercises off the Australian coast during the last four Talisman Sabre exercises and were expected to carry out surveillance on the current exercise, Australian defence industry minister Pat Conroy said.
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Rockets are launched from a High Mobility Artillery Rocket System during Talisman Sabre 2025. Pic: AP
“The Chinese military have observed these exercises since 2017. It’d be very unusual for them not to observe it,” Mr Conroy told the Australian Broadcasting Corp.
“We’ll adjust accordingly. We’ll obviously observe their activities and monitor their presence around Australia, but we’ll also adjust how we conduct those exercises,” he added.
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Mr Conroy said the Chinese were not yet shadowing ships as of Sunday.
The drill started a day after Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese began a six-day visit to China, where he is expected to hold his fourth face-to-face meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Tuesday.
HIMARS rockets are fired by Australian, US and Singapore defence forces. Pic: Reuters
Mr Albanese said Chinese surveillance of Talisman Sabre would not be an issue raised with Mr Xi.
“That would be nothing unusual. That has happened in the past and I’ll continue to assert Australia’s national interest, as I do,” Mr Albanese said in Shanghai on Monday.
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