Both parties are in fantasy land – but Sunak’s tax attack on Labour is rich given what his government has cost voters

Published

12 months ago

June 5, 2024

admin

Before we get on to any of the numbers – from Rishi Sunak’s claim about Labour raising taxes by £2,000 to the more outlandish numbers going around today – here’s the most important thing you have to know right now.

The parties fighting this election have yet to publish their manifestos. They might come as soon as next week, but until those documents, with their shopping lists of confirmed policies, actually land, we are in a kind of policy no man’s land where each side is guessing (and sometimes plain making up stuff) about what the other side actually wants to implement if they win the election.

Election latest:
Starmer wins another TV debate poll

And since all parties like to talk a lot about exciting new things they’d spend money on and not half as much about the taxes they’d raise to pay for all that stuff, it doesn’t take a mathematical whizz to realise that if you take them all quite literally then you can impute some pretty big “black holes” in their plans.

Those “black holes” matter because both Labour and Conservatives have signed up to fiscal rules preventing them from splurging without limit. So if there is a hole, the assumption is it would have to be filled by raising taxes.

However, in the absence of either manifestos or detailed costing plans, the best we can do about all this for the time being is to speculate.

Tap here to follow Politics at Jack at Sam’s wherever you get your podcasts

Does Sunak’s claim about Labour taxes stand up?

That brings us back to the claim Rishi Sunak made in last night’s debate, that Labour will raise everyone’s taxes by £2,000. This is a direct consequence of this information vacuum.

It comes from a “dossier” published by the Tories last month, back before the election was called, which purported to calculate all Labour’s proposed tax and spending plans.

The headline finding from that paper was that over the course of the next four years Labour had roughly £59bn of spending plans (at least as far as the Tories claimed) but only £20bn of revenue raising plans. That leaves a £39bn hole. Divide that £39bn by the number of households in the country (18.4m) and you get a figure of just over £2,000. Voila: £2,000 of unaccounted tax rises or spending cuts which, said Rishi Sunak last night, would inevitably be filled with extra taxes.

Now, there are all sorts of objections to the way the Conservatives have carried out this exercise. For one thing, they deployed a weapon Labour don’t have: because they’re the party of government they were able to ask Treasury civil servants to cost some of the Labour policies (or rather, the policies they think Labour will implement – remember, those manifestos haven’t yet been published!).

Today there has been a backlash – including from the Treasury’s permanent secretary himself – about the way the Tories have portrayed these sums.

What the Tories have already cost households

The £2,000 figure isn’t really a Treasury calculation or for that matter an “independent” one, as Mr Sunak called it last night. It’s a Conservative figure – but it was put together in part with figures commissioned from civil servants.

There were other objections: Labour say many of the policies in that Tory dossier won’t cost half as much as the Conservatives claim.

But actually, surprising as it might sound, what’s most striking about this “bombshell” is how small it really is. Less of a bombshell; more of a hand grenade.

While £2,000 sounds like a big number, it’s actually a cumulative total from four years. A far more representative figure to take from the dossier is £500 – the annual figure.

And while that’s not to be sniffed at (if you believe it – which you probably shouldn’t) it’s far, far smaller than the tax rises we’ve all experienced under this Conservative government since 2019. They amount, all told, to an average of around £3,000 a year per household or, if we grit our teeth and tot it up as the Tories did in their dossier, over £13,000 over the course of the parliament. Which rather dwarfs that £2,000 figure.

Labour attack dossier is even more outlandish

So anyway, you’re probably hoping now we’ve explained the £2,000 from last night that we could leave things there. But sorry, no.

Because, this being the murky pre-manifesto period, Labour have gone one further and produced their own dossier, purporting to show Conservative fiscal plans for the coming years. But while the initial Tory document was somewhat conservative (with a small c) about its numbers, the Labour version is far more outlandish.

It assumes, for instance, that the Conservatives are planning to abolish National Insurance and inheritance tax overnight if they are elected. These are mammoth tax changes which the Conservatives have never committed to (they have made some vague noises about intending to abolish NICs but not in the next parliament).

Anyway, the Labour document takes these and other policies and works out that that would imply a black hole of roughly £70bn a year or a whopping £270bn when you tot up the first four years of the parliament (they actually provide five years of numbers but for the sake of comparability I’m looking solely at the first four years, as the Tories’ dossier did).

Divide that by the number of households (as the Tory document did) and you end up with a grand total over those four years not of £2,000 but of a staggering £14,000 per household.

Parties trading blows in the realms of fiscal fantasy

At this stage, now we’ve completely departed from realistic policy, you’re probably wondering when this silly saga will be over. Sadly the answer is: not yet.

Because having seen the Labour response, the Conservatives produced a second dossier, essentially saying: “Well, if you’re going to make all sorts of outlandish assumptions about the stuff we’ve vaguely talked about then can we have a go too?”

This final dossier includes all sorts of policies no one seriously expects Labour to implement this parliament: cutting corporation tax to 12.5%, scrapping business rates altogether, introducing French-style union laws. Add this all up and you end up with a grand total of £211bn a year or – if you multiply that by four years across a parliament, £844bn. So the best part of a trillion pounds.

We are of course in the realms of fiscal fantasy at this stage, but if you take that cumulative total and divide that by the number of households in the country you end up with an utterly ridiculous figure of £46,000.

Whether either party thinks these dossiers will change anyone’s mind in this election remains to be seen.

Right now they mostly look like an attempt to send economics correspondents completely crazy.

Both major parties are committed to tax rises

But the overarching point is as follows: both the major parties are committed to tax rises in the coming years. We know as much because the official Office for Budget Responsibility plans will see the tax burden increase sizeably, in large part because the main tax-free allowances are being frozen, ensuring everyone ends up paying more tax, once you adjust for inflation and rising wages.

These tax rises – the long-term consequences of the pandemic and the energy price guarantee – are quite likely to dwarf any measures we hear about in the coming manifestos.

But until we get those manifestos, the rest is, yes, speculation.

UK

Premier League clubs at risk of legal action over unlicensed casino sponsors

Published

8 hours ago

May 25, 2025

admin

Premier League clubs at risk of legal action over unlicensed casino sponsors

Casinos sponsoring two Premier League clubs are accepting UK customers without a licence, putting club officers at risk of prosecution, Sky News has learned.

The gambling websites, BC.Game and DEBET, are the matchday shirt sponsors of Leicester City and Wolverhampton Wanderers, respectively.

But an investigation by anti-gambling advert campaigners, shared with Sky News, suggests the casinos have continued to accept UK customers – despite this becoming unlawful after they lost their licences to operate in the UK.

DEBET lost its licence on 15 May, while BC.Game lost its licence in December 2024.

Neither club has indicated that they intend to end the sponsorships, despite criticism from campaigners and warnings from the Gambling Commission.

With the end of the 2024/25 season this weekend, both clubs are now half-way through two-year sponsorship deals with the casinos – putting them in a difficult position for next season.

The campaign group Coalition to End Gambling Ads (CEGA) told Sky News it was able to make deposits on both gambling websites, despite the sites having no licence to accept UK customers.

CEGA also successfully deposited cash on Burnley FC sponsor 96.com. Burnley are due to be promoted to the Premier League next season.

The findings come one week after the Gambling Commission warned five football clubs, including Wolverhampton and Burnley, that their officers “may be liable to prosecution and, if convicted, face a fine, imprisonment or both if they promote unlicensed gambling businesses that transact with consumers in Great Britain”.

The Commission had issued a similar warning to Leicester City in February.

It made clear then that the clubs must either cut ties with the casinos or ensure they are not accessible to UK customers “by any means” – including virtual private networks (VPNs) – software used to hide a user’s real location.

Other than the need to use a VPN, CEGA director Will Prochaska says it “really wasn’t very difficult” to access the sites.

The Gambling Commission declined to be interviewed by Sky News, but said that “where we have evidence that meets the standard for criminal prosecution we will take appropriate action”.

Head of enforcement at the Commission John Pierce previously said the body would “conduct ongoing spot checks as necessary to ensure they are not accessible to consumers in Great Britain by any means”.

Mr Prochaska, however, said the Commission was taking “far too long” to take action.

“Far too many children, far too many football fans, are seeing these adverts every day,” he said. “It’s got to stop.”

Leicester City’s sponsor has had no UK licence for almost six months

The three sites that appear on the matchday shirts of Leicester, Wolves and Burnley were previously licensed by TGP Europe, a company based on the Isle of Man.

On 15 May, TGP Europe surrendered its UK gambling licence to avoid a £3.3m fine, leaving DEBET and 96.com unable to legally accept UK customers.

Leicester City sponsor BC.Game has been unlicensed in the UK since it parted ways with TGP Europe in December 2024 – almost six months ago.

Mr Prochaska said he contacted Leicester City on 13 March to alert them that BC.Game was still accepting UK customers.

“In fact, it was one of the easiest for me to gamble on – there were very few checks whatsoever,” he says. “But Leicester don’t seem to have done anything about it, and it’s still on the front of their shirts.”

Leicester City FC did not respond to a request for comment.

Sky News was able to sign up to every single site

Bournemouth, Fulham and Newcastle United are also sponsored by casinos that were formerly licensed by TGP Europe, but have been unlicensed since 15 May.

These casinos (bj88, SBOTOP and FUN88) are no longer able to legally accept UK customers.

However, Sky News was able to use a VPN to sign up to all three casinos, as well as those sponsoring Leicester City, Wolverhampton and Burnley.

On all six websites, Sky was able to access QR codes for making cryptocurrency deposits. Sky News did not attempt to make any deposits.

All six casinos are forbidden by law from accepting UK customers.

Yet Burnley sponsor 96.com allowed Sky News to sign up using a Telegram account registered to a UK phone number.

The other websites all required phone numbers to be entered upon registration, which could be used as an additional layer of security to filter out UK customers.

However, most of the websites did not check whether the phone number provided was genuine.

Only one website, Leicester City sponsor BC.Game, did check.

However, after confirming the phone number’s authenticity, BC.Game allowed registration to proceed – even though Sky News had provided a UK phone number.

Sky News presented these findings to the football clubs concerned, to TGP Europe and to the Gambling Commission, but did not receive any comment.

Anyone concerned about their gambling, or that of a loved one, can visit BeGambleAware.org for free, confidential advice and support, or The National Gambling Helpline is available on 0808 8020 133 and operates 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

UK

Former BBC executive and presenter Alan Yentob dies

Published

8 hours ago

May 25, 2025

admin

Former BBC executive and presenter Alan Yentob dies

Alan Yentob, the former BBC presenter and executive, has died aged 78.

A statement from his family, shared by the BBC, said Yentob died on Saturday.

His wife Philippa Walker said: “For Jacob, Bella and I, every day with Alan held the promise of something unexpected. Our life was exciting, he was exciting.

“He was curious, funny, annoying, late, and creative in every cell of his body. But more than that, he was the kindest of men and a profoundly moral man. He leaves in his wake a trail of love a mile wide.”

Yentob joined the BBC as a trainee in 1968 and held a number of positions – including controller of BBC One and BBC Two, director of television, and head of music and art.

He was also the director of BBC drama, entertainment, and children’s TV.

Yentob launched CBBC and CBeebies, and his drama commissions included Pride And Prejudice and Middlemarch.

The TV executive was made a Commander of the Order of the British Empire (CBE) by the King in 2024 for services to the arts and media.

In a tribute, the BBC’s director-general Tim Davie said: “Alan Yentob was a towering figure in British broadcasting and the arts. A creative force and a cultural visionary, he shaped decades of programming at the BBC and beyond, with a passion for storytelling and public service that leave a lasting legacy.

“Above all, Alan was a true original. His passion wasn’t performative – it was personal. He believed in the power of culture to enrich, challenge and connect us.”

BBC Radio 4 presenter Amol Rajan described him on Instagram as “such a unique and kind man: an improbable impresario from unlikely origins who became a towering figure in the culture of post-war Britain.

“I commend his spirit to the living.”

UK

Mother and three children who died in house fire in London named by police

Published

9 hours ago

May 25, 2025

admin

Mother and three children who died in house fire in London named by police

A mother and three of her children who died in a house fire in northwest London have been named by police.

Warning: This article contains pictures of a fire in which people died

Detectives say Nusrat Usman, 43, Maryam Mikaiel, 15, Musa Usman, eight, and Raees Usman, four, died following the fire in Stonebridge, near Wembley, in the early hours of Saturday.

A woman in her 70s was taken to hospital but has since been released. A 13-year-old girl remains in hospital in a critical condition.

A 41-year-old man was arrested at the scene and has since been bailed. He was subsequently detained under the Mental Health Act.

Flowers and a blue teddy bear have been left near the scene, where crews wearing helmets and respiratory equipment were seen building scaffolding against the burnt-out buildings.

Neighbour Cecilia Marquis, 60, said she was “stunned by the devastation”.

“This will leave a devastating impact,” Ms Marquis, who witnessed the fire, said.

Witness Mohamed Labidi, 38, said he “can’t even look at the house right now”.

“We used to socialise together.

“They’re very good people, no problems on their side at all. It’s really shocking. It’s a really strong community here, we look after each other.”

A neighbour, who asked not to be named, said: “It’s horrible, we saw people running outside.

“It’s hard to process. I only just moved in, so it’s hard to think about it.”

Eight fire engines and around 60 firefighters responded to the blaze, London Fire Brigade (LFB) said.

Two terrace houses, each with three floors, were severely damaged in the fire, which was under control by around 3.25am, the fire service added.

Superintendent Steve Allen, from the Met’s local policing team in northwest London, said: “Our thoughts go out to all those impacted by what has happened.

“Specialist officers are continuing to support the wider family who have asked for privacy at this deeply upsetting time.

“Local officers are working closely with officers from the Specialist Crime Command on what continues to be a very complex investigation.”

Mayor of London Sadiq Khan said in a post on X: “This is devastating news and my thoughts are with the family, friends and wider community of the four people who sadly have lost their lives.

“I remain in close contact with the London Fire Brigade and Metropolitan Police as they work to establish the cause of the fire and offer support to all those impacted.”

This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.

Please refresh the page for the fullest version.

You can receive breaking news alerts on a smartphone or tablet via the Sky News app. You can also follow us on WhatsApp and subscribe to our YouTube channel to keep up with the latest news.