Keir Starmer brands Rishi Sunak’s tax claims ‘garbage’ – but poll suggests PM came out on top

Published

1 year ago

June 5, 2024

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Sir Keir Starmer said it was “garbage” to claim he would raise taxes by £2,000 as he traded blows with Rishi Sunak in their heated first TV debate.

The Labour leader initially failed to challenge the prime minister’s repeated accusations that Labour’s spending plans would cost each family £2,000.

He eventually called it “nonsense” and “absolute garbage”, saying his pledge to invest in green projects would result in cheaper energy bills.

Politics latest: Voters think Sunak performed better in first TV debate

Labour said the figure is based on misleading information put out in a “dodgy Tory dossier” and called on Mr Sunak to correct the record.

One of their 11 rebuttals is that the costings rely on “assumptions from special advisors”, rather than an impartial Civil Service assessment.

Sir Keir initially struggled to explain this during a debate that saw the pair repeatedly talk over each other, forcing ITV host Julie Ethcingham to intervene and cut them off.

A snap YouGov poll after the clash suggested Mr Sunak narrowly came out on top – with 51% of the audience believing he fared slightly better than Sir Keir.

However, Labour’s shadow paymaster general Jonathan Ashworth told Sky’s deputy political editor Sam Coates that Labour are leaving the debate “stronger tonight” as he accused Mr Sunak of “lying” about Labour’s tax policies.

“Rishi Sunak out of desperation had to collapse into lying in that debate,” he said,

“We do not have a plan to tax households in the way in which Rishi Sunak described, and we are not putting up income tax, or national insurance and VAT.

“The only party that has made uncosted commitments in this campaign is Rishi Sunak’s party.”

Labour has previously said it does not plan to raise personal taxes and its policies are fully costed.

Sunak laughed at over NHS claims

As well as the economy, the pair clashed over the NHS and immigration, with Mr Sunak groaned at and laughed at by the audience on some occasions.

The first rumbling of discontent came after the prime minister was asked how long it would take to fix the “broken” health service.

He pointed to the damage done by the COVID pandemic but said “we are now making progress: waiting lists are coming down”.

The Labour leader countered: “They were 7.2 million, they’re now 7.5 million. He says they are coming down and this is the guy who says he’s good at maths.”

Mr Sunak said NHS waiting times are “coming down from when they were higher”, prompting laughter from the audience. He then blamed industrial action, eliciting groans.

“It’s somebody else’s fault,” Sir Keir said.

In another key moment, both were asked directly whether they would use private healthcare if a family member was on a long waiting list for NHS care – with Mr Sunak saying he would and Sir Keir saying he wouldn’t.

Immigration debate gets heated

There was also a heated debate over immigration.

Mr Sunak offered his strongest suggestion yet that he could be willing to leave the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) if the government’s stalled Rwanda deportation plan remains blocked by the courts.

He said: “If I am forced to choose between securing our borders and our country’s security, or a foreign court, I’m going to choose our country’s security every single time.”

However, he said deportation flights will take off to Rwanda “in July, but only if I’m your prime minister”.

“Stick to our plan and illegal migrants will be on those planes – with Labour they will be out on our streets.”

Sir Keir hit back: “The levels of migration are at record highs – 685,000. It’s never been that high, save in the last year or two.

“The prime minister says it’s too high. Who’s in charge? He’s in charge. He’s the most liberal prime minister we’ve ever had on immigration.”

The Labour leader also said Mr Sunak had “completely failed” to meet his pledge to stop small boats crossing the Channel.

On the issue of the ECHR, he said the UK risked becoming a “pariah” state if it left international conventions.

Key debate points at a glance

Faye Brown

Political reporter

@fayebrownSky

On tax & the economy: Rishi Sunak claimed Labour’s plans for the country were not costed and would require tax rises of £2,000. He pointed to the Conservatives bringing inflation down, cutting NI and his pledge to cut taxes for pensioners through the “triple lock plus” as
reasons why people should vote for him.

Sir Keir said Mr Sunak’s £2,000 claim was “absolute garbage” and his plans are fully costed. He pointed out the tax burden has risen to the highest level in 70 years under the Tories and used Mr Sunak’s vast personal wealth to suggest he doesn’t understand the cost of living crisis.

On the NHS: Rishi Sunak was groaned at and laughed at for claiming waiting lists were coming down and blaming industrial action on the backlog.

Sir Keir pointed to Labour’s plans to create 40,000 new appointments while bigging up his credentials as the husband of an NHS worker.

On Education: Rishi Sunak said parents who “work hard” should be allowed to send their children to private schools, in an attack on Labour’s VAT policy.

Sir Keir that one of Labour’s first steps would be to recruit 6,500 teachers to fill gaps, and he “will get rid of the tax break on private schools to pay for it, that’s a tough choice, I do understand that”.

On immigration: Sunak offered his strongest suggestion yet that he could be willing to leave the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) if the government’s stalled Rwanda deportation plan remains blocked by the courts, but said flights should be taking off in July.

Sir Keir said the UK risked becoming a “pariah” state if it left international conventions and pointed to his plan to target criminal people smuggling gangs to stop small boat crossings.

On Climate: Sunak defended his decision to water down policies designed to help the UK reach net zero carbon emissions, saying the targets will still be met, it will cost households less, and maintain the UK’s energy security.

Sir Keir said there was a “huge opportunity” in the renewable energy sphere that would see cheaper bills, energy security for the UK, and more jobs. He said he will deliver clean power by 2030, despite scaling back the initial investment he intended to put forward to get there.

Who came out on top?

The pair dished out their usual attack lines throughout the debate – with Mr Sunak accusing Sir Keir of having no plan and the Labour leader going in on the Tories’ 14-year record in government, particularly highlighting the impact of the Liz Truss mini budget.

A break down of the YouGov polling found that Mr Sunak came out on top in the sections about tax and immigration.

But while he also “won” the debate overall, Sir Keir was victorious in the discussions about the cost of living, the NHS, education, and climate change.

However, in bad news for both leaders, the poll found 60% of people thought the debate was frustrating, compared to 17% who found it helpful and 4% who found it authentic.

Following the heated debate, election campaigning is to take a back seat for a couple of days, as commemorations for the 80th anniversary of D-Day begin.

The leaders’ differences will be put to one side as the Normandy landings are remembered.

Both Mr Sunak and Sir Keir will attend the UK’s national commemoration event in Portsmouth alongside members of the Royal Family and armed forces veterans on Wednesday, before attention is focused across the Channel for further anniversary events in Normandy.

Politics

Budget 2025: Hospitality pleads for ‘lifeline’ as Rachel Reeves accused of imposing ‘stealth tax’

Published

2 hours ago

November 29, 2025

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Budget 2025: Hospitality pleads for 'lifeline' as Rachel Reeves accused of imposing 'stealth tax'

Rachel Reeves has been accused of failing to “support the great British pub” as she promised in the budget, with owners facing skyrocketing business rates bills.

In her speech in the House of Commons on Wednesday, the chancellor said she was backing small businesses by introducing “permanently lower tax rates for over 750,000 retail, hospitality and leisure properties – the lowest tax rates since 1991”.

But while the government gave itself the powers to discount the business rates bills for high street businesses through legislation earlier this year, the chancellor only implemented a reduction of a quarter of what the government is able to, and she is being accused of imposing a “stealth tax”.

It has left small retail, hospitality, and leisure businesses questioning whether their businesses will be viable beyond April next year.

A Treasury spokesperson said: “We’re protecting pubs, restaurants and cafes with the budget’s £4.3bn support package – capping bill rises so a typical independent pub will pay around £4,800 less next year than they otherwise would have.

“This comes on top of cutting licensing costs to help more venues offer pavement drinks and al fresco dining, maintaining our cut to alcohol duty on draught pints, and capping corporation tax.”

Business rates, which are a tax on commercial properties in England and Wales, are calculated through a complex formula of the value of the property, assessed by a government agency every three years, combined with a national “multiplier” set by the Treasury, giving a final cash amount.

Over the last few years, small businesses were given business rates relief of 75% to support them over the COVID pandemic, and Ms Reeves reduced that to 40% at last year’s budget.

The idea was that at the budget this year, the chancellor would remove that remaining relief in favour of reforming the business rates system to compensate for that drop, while shifting the tax burden on to much bigger businesses and companies like Amazon with lots of warehouse space.

However, the chancellor only announced a 5p in the pound discount for small retail, hospitality, and leisure businesses, rather than the assumed 20p drop which the government gave itself the powers to implement, and which trade bodies had been lobbying for.

On top of that, small businesses have seen the government-assessed value of their property increase dramatically, which wipes out the discount, and sees their business rates bill shoot far above what they had previously been paying.

One pub owner near Hull, Sam Caroll, has seen the assessed value of one of his two properties increase from £67,000 to £110,000 in just three years – a 64% increase.

He told Sky News that there is a “continual question” of business viability, and while he thinks they can “adapt” in the short term, “there will be a tipping point at some point”. Even at the moment, packing out their pubs seven nights a week, “it’s difficult for us to break even”, he said.

There will be a discount for small businesses to transition to the higher business rates level, but by year three, almost the full amount is expected to be payable, and Mr Carroll described it as “getting f***** slowly, instead of getting f***** overnight”.

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Sean Hughes, who owns multiple hospitality venues in St Albans, has also seen vast increases in the assessed value of his properties, and was sharply critical of the transitional arrangements the government is implementing.

He told Sky News: “Fundamental business rate reform was promised and we have total chaos. If [the system] was fair, why would they need transitional relief periods?”

A spokesperson of the Valuation Office Agency (VOA), which assesses the value of commercial properties for business rates purposes, told Sky News: “At the last revaluation, some sectors including hospitality were significantly affected by the pandemic, which resulted in much lower rateable values than they would have seen otherwise. Businesses that have now seen a recovery in trade are also likely to see an increase in their rateable value.”

However, Sky News has seen evidence of businesses whose assessed value did not decrease when assessed during the pandemic, but actually rose, and has risen dramatically this year.

Data compiled by the Pubs Advisory Service, shows that the number of pubs in the UK has decreased by nearly 5% in three years, but the average value of the properties has risen by an average of 36.82% per pub.

And analysis by UK Hospitality, the trade body that represents hospitality businesses, has found that over the next three years, the average pub will pay an extra £12,900 in business rates, even with the transitional arrangements, while an average hotel will see its bill soar by £205,200.

The body adds that by 2028/29, an average pub’s business rates will have increased by 76% and an average hotel’s by 115%, compared to 16% for a distribution warehouse like the ones the web giants use.

It’s not just the business rates rise that is worrying owners – it is the increase in employers’ national insurance implemented at the last budget, the increase in energy bills over the last few years, and the rise in the minimum wage, particularly for young people.

With the budget set to squeeze disposal income, there is little room for price increases to make up the shortfall either.

In a letter to the chancellor on Friday, Liberal Democrat deputy leader Daisy Cooper said small business owners “have been pushed to tears as they’re hit with the bombshell of higher business rates bills”, noting that “the government has chosen not to use the full powers it gave itself to throw high streets a lifeline”.

She added that businesses had been promised “permanently lower business rates”, but it appears the government has “broken yet another promise, by imposing a stealth tax not just on people, but on treasured high street businesses too”, and called on ministers to “throw our high streets and Britain’s hospitality sector a lifeline”.

Conservative shadow business secretary Andrew Griffith published his own analysis of the government’s budget measures on Friday morning, that found they will “hammer British pubs”.

Of the chancellor, he said: “She pretended in her budget speech to be supportive, whilst the true detail is that a combination of rate revaluations and scrapping reliefs will leave most pubs paying thousands of pounds more than they cannot afford.”

Kate Nicholls, Chair of UKHospitality, said in a statement: “The government promised in its manifesto that it would level the playing field between the high street and online giants. The plan in the budget to achieve this is quickly unravelling, and will deliver the exact opposite.”

She said they “repeatedly warned the Treasury” of the impending impacted of the value reassessment, but nonetheless, hospitality businesses are now facing “eye-watering increases”.

She added: “We agree with its reforms to deliver permanently lower business rates for hospitality and we appreciate the package of transitional relief, but its current proposal is not delivering lower bills. A 20p discount for hospitality would. We urge the chancellor to revisit.”

Politics

Polymarket puts December rate-cut odds at 87% as crypto stocks climb

Published

8 hours ago

November 28, 2025

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Polymarket puts December rate-cut odds at 87% as crypto stocks climb

Several crypto-linked stocks climbed on Friday as prediction-market odds of a December rate cut surged to 87% on Polymarket, the highest level this month.

Three US-listed Bitcoin miners led the rally, with Cleanspark, Riot Platforms and Cipher Mining all rising in the session and showing double-digit gains over the past five days.

Federal Reserve, United States, Predictions — *Probability of a US rate cut in December. Source:* *Polymarket*

Yahoo Finance data showed Circle, the issuer of USDC, jumped nearly 10% in early trading, while Michael Saylor’s Strategy and Coinbase notched more modest increases at the time of writing.

Bitcoin (BTC) was also up around 7% on the week, after dropping to around $82,000 on Nov. 21, according to CoinGecko data.

Much of the volatility in prediction-market pricing this month has been driven by comments from Federal Reserve officials.

On Oct. 29, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said a December cut was “not a foregone conclusion,” a remark investors took as hawkish — which means the Fed could delay rate cuts and keep conditions tight. Polymarket odds slipped from 89% the day before to as low as 22% by Nov. 20.

Sentiment shifted on Nov. 17 after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the central bank should consider cutting rates next month, arguing that “the labor market is still weak and near stall speed” and that inflation is now “relatively close” to the Fed’s 2% target.

Prediction markets expand as demand surges

Prediction markets, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, which enable bettors to wager on the outcomes of real-world events, have expanded their reach and influence this year.

On Nov. 13, Polymarket inked a multi-year agreement with TKO Group Holdings to serve as the official prediction-market partner for the Ultimate Fighting Championships and Zuffa Boxing. The partnership came shortly after it partnered with North American fantasy sports operator PrizePicks.

The same month, Kalshi raised $1 billion from Sequoia Capital and CapitalG, pushing its valuation to $11 billion, according to a TechCrunch report citing a person familiar with the deal. The new round followed a $300 million raise in October.

On Nov. 19, rumors emerged that Coinbase is developing its own prediction-market platform after tech researcher Jane Manchun Wong posted screenshots of an unreleased site. Wong’s images indicated the product would be offered through Coinbase Financial Markets and backed by Kalshi.

On Wednesday, Robinhood said prediction markets have quickly become one of its fastest-growing revenue drivers, with more than one million users trading nine billion contracts since the product launched in March through a partnership with Kalshi.

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