Oil market ‘oversold’? Analysts and traders pin crude’s price plunge on demand, trading strategies
An offshore oil platform is seen at sunset near Huntington Beach, California, on Feb. 9, 2024.
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Oil prices defied the announcement of extended supply cuts from the OPEC+ alliance with brisk declines, with analysts and traders faulting certain trading strategies and the demand picture for the downturn.
“There is a sentiment among traders of changing and repositioning their short versus their long positions, and that is how the price movement is actually giving the signals,” energy consultant Abdulaziz Almoqbel told CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Wednesday. In this case, short positions refer to activity in the futures markets that profits when prices decline, while their opposite long positions cash in when prices move higher over an extended period.
“I would say that what the market is going through currently is going into an oversold, technically oversold market that is pushing the prices down,” he noted.
On Sunday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies — collectively known as OPEC+ — decided to extend its existing formal cuts that were due to end this year, as well as a roughly 1.66 million-barrels-per-day voluntary reduction that also covered the period. These curbs will now carry through into the whole of 2025.
Several OPEC+ members also stretched out 2.2 million barrels per day of additional voluntary cuts from the second quarter of 2024 into the third one, with a view to gradually return these volumes to the market by September 2025 thereafter.
“I think there is a great deal of commodity trading advisors … as well as [algorithms], and the options market, which is a substantially large market of contracts that is influencing the latest price movement,” Almoqbel added.
“If you look at every OPEC+ meeting that was held over the past 36 months, you will notice that following every meeting, there is a downward movement of prices.”
Oil prices bowed below $80 barrels per day despite this prospect of market tightness, with the Ice Brent contract with August expiry at $77.59 at 11:14 a.m. London time Wednesday, up 7 cents per barrel from the Tuesday close. The front-month Nymex WTI contract was at $73.28 per barrel, higher by 3 cents per barrel from the Tuesday settlement.
“Oil prices have fallen by almost USD 5/bbl since last Friday. While some blame the OPEC+ meeting for the drop, we believe other factors — such as the option market—have played a role,” UBS strategist Giovanni Staunovo said in a Tuesday note to clients.
“Prices are likely to remain volatile in the near term. Renewed inventory draws are needed to push oil prices higher, in our view.”
Within oil markets, options are often used as hedging mechanisms to protect against price changes.
Protective “put” and “call” contracts — types of financial derivatives — can set a downside and upside limit for the range in which a price can vary before a position is terminated. Futures hedging can also be applied to defend the value of crude production or of transacted cargoes in the physical market.
The OPEC+ weekend output strategy decision has so far failed to boost prices, given the voluntary cutters’ early announcement of how they plan to reinstate their 2.2 million barrels per day of supplies after the end of the third quarter. The meeting offered a “bearish surprise” to the market and has boosted the downside risk for Goldman Sachs’ forecast that Ice Brent will hit a range of $75 to $90 per barrel, Daan Struyven, head of oil research at the investment bank, told clients in a note.
Also looming large is an uncertain outlook for demand that has put the OPEC Secretariat and Paris-based IEA at opposite ends of a wide spectrum. OPEC’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report of May projects a 2.25 million barrel-per-day increase this year, while the IEA forecasts just a 1.06 million-barrel-per-day demand hike. Demand typically picks up during the summer because of higher gasoline consumption amid a seasonal increase in driving — and the end of maintenance at refineries in China, the world’s largest crude importer.
Yet three crude traders, who could only speak anonymously because of confidentiality agreements, told CNBC that the call on crude from Asia has been low, with one adding that a part of the forthcoming demand increase has already been “borrowed,” as some physical crude volumes would have been carried forward.
“If you look at the latest price movements, you are under the impression that we are in an oversupplied market. However, if you look at the supply restraints and the reroute of dynamic in the global energy supplies, you would clearly understand that this market is definitely not in a surplus,” Almoqbel said. “And so, it really depends on where you want to look, whether you’re focusing on the supply picture or the demand picture to really tell.”
Believe it or not, you can lease an EV for under $200 a month. New deals on models like the 2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 and Kia EV6 are hard to pass up this month.
Electric vehicles have been all over the news lately, with the Trump administration threatening to end federal incentives and introducing new tariffs that are expected to lead to higher prices.
On the positive side, new EV models are arriving, giving buyers more options and driving prices down. Many automakers reported record US electric car sales in the first three months of 2024.
GM remained the number two seller of EVs behind Tesla after sales doubled in Q1 2025. With the new Equinox, Blazer, and Silverado EVs rolling out, Chevy is now the fastest-growing EV brand in the US. Ford’s Mustang Mach-E is off to its best sales start since launching, with over 11,600 models sold in the first quarter.
With the 2025 models rolling out and about 15 new EVs arriving this year, many automakers are introducing steep discounts to move vehicles off the lot.
EVs for lease for under $200 a month in April
Although the decade-old Nissan LEAF remains one of the most affordable this April at just $149 per month, there are a few EVs under $200 right now that are worth taking a look at.
The new 2025 Hyundai IONIQ might be the best EV deal this month, with leases as low as $199. Hyundai is currently promoting a 24-month lease deal with $3,999 due at signing.
Hyundai upgraded the electric SUV with a bigger battery for more range (now up to 318 miles), a sleek new look inside and out, and it now comes with an NACS port so you can charge it at Tesla Superchargers.
The offer is for the IONIQ 5 SE RWD Standard Range, which has a driving range of up to 245 miles. For just $229 a month, you can snag the SE RWD model, which has a range of up to 318 miles and a more powerful (225 horsepower) electric motor. It’s also a 24-month lease with $3,999 due at signing.
To sweeten the deal, Hyundai is offering a free ChargePoint Home Flex Level 2 EV charger with the purchase or lease of any 2024 or 2025 IONIQ 5. If you already have one, you can opt for a $400 public charging credit.
After slashing lease prices this month, the 2025 Nissan Ariya is actually cheaper than the LEAF in some regions. In Southern California, the 2025 Nissan Ariya Evolve AWD is listed at just $129 per month. The AWD model has a range of up to 272 miles.
The deal is for 36 months, with $4,409 due at signing. In April, Nissan cut Ariya lease prices to around $239 in most other parts of the country.
Kia has a few EVs available to lease for under $200 a month in April. The 2025 Kia Niro EV Wind is listed at just $129 for 24 months, with $3,999 due at signing. Kia’s crossover SUV has EPA-estimated range of 253 miles.
The 2024 EV6 may be worth considering at just $179 for 24 months ($3,999 due at signing). In California, the EV6 Light Long Range RWD is only slightly more than the Niro Wind.
In most other parts of the country, you can still find the EV6 for under $200 a month. The Light Long Range RWD trim offers up to 310 miles of EPA-estimated range.
| Lease Price | Term (months) |
Amount Due at Signing | Driving Range | |
| 2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 SE RWD Standard Range | $199 | 24 | $3,999 | 245 miles |
| 2024 Kia EV6 Light Long Rang RWD | $179 | 24 | $3,999 | 310 miles |
| 2024 Kia Niro EV Wind | $129 | 24 | $3,999 | 253 miles |
| 2025 Nissan Ariya Evolve AWD | $129 | 36 | $4,409 | 272 miles |
| 2025 Nissan LEAF S FWD | $149 | 36 | $2,629 | 149 miles |
| 2024 Fiat 500 INSPI(RED) | $199 | 24 | $2,999 | 149 miles |
And don’t forget the 2024 Fiat 500e, which is now listed at just $199 for 24 months with $2,999 due at signing. The electric hatchback offers a range of up to 149 miles.
If you are looking to spend a little more, check out our list of EVs you can lease for under $300 a month.
Ready to snag the savings while they are still here? At under $200 a month, some of these EV lease deals are hard to pass up right now. Check out our links below to find deals in your area.
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![The US’s first solar panels over canals pilot is now online [video]](https://i0.wp.com/electrek.co/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2025/04/Project-Nexus-solar-canal.jpg?resize=1200,628&quality=82&strip=all&ssl=1)
Project Nexus, the first solar panel canopies over irrigation canals in the US, is now online in California, and there are plans to expand the project to other areas.
Project Nexus is a $20 million pilot in central California’s Turlock Irrigation District launched in October 2022. The project team is exploring solar over canal design, deployment, and co-benefits using canal infrastructure and the electrical grid.
India already has solar panels over canals, but Project Nexus is the first of its kind in the US.
The Turlock Irrigation District was the first irrigation district formed in California in 1887. It provides irrigation water to 4,700 growers who farm around 150,000 acres in the San Joaquin Valley.
Project Nexus will explore whether the solar panels reduce water evaporation as a result of midday shade and wind mitigation, create improvements to water quality through reduced vegetative growth, reduce canal maintenance as a result of reduced vegetative growth, and, of course, generate renewable electricity.
The California Department of Water Resources, utility company Turlock Irrigation District, Marin County, California-based water and energy project developer Solar AquaGrid, and The University of California, Merced, are partnering on the pilot. Project Nexus originated from a 2021 research project led by UC Merced alumna and project scientist Brandi McKuin.
Solar panels were installed at two sites over both wide- and narrow-span sections of Turlock Irrigation District canals in Stanislaus County, in various orientations. The sections range from 20 feet wide to 100 feet wide. University of California, Merced has positioned research equipment at both sites to collect baseline data so the researchers can decide where solar will work and where it won’t.
In February 2023, Project Nexus announced it would also deploy long-term iron flow battery storage in the form of two ESS 75kW turnkey “Energy Warehouse” batteries.
You can learn more about Project Nexus here:
Read more: In a US first, California will pilot solar-panel canopies over canals
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