An offshore oil platform is seen at sunset near Huntington Beach, California, on Feb. 9, 2024.
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Oil prices defied the announcement of extended supply cuts from the OPEC+ alliance with brisk declines, with analysts and traders faulting certain trading strategies and the demand picture for the downturn.
“There is a sentiment among traders of changing and repositioning their short versus their long positions, and that is how the price movement is actually giving the signals,” energy consultant Abdulaziz Almoqbel told CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Wednesday. In this case, short positions refer to activity in the futures markets that profits when prices decline, while their opposite long positions cash in when prices move higher over an extended period.
“I would say that what the market is going through currently is going into an oversold, technically oversold market that is pushing the prices down,” he noted.
On Sunday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies — collectively known as OPEC+ — decided to extend its existing formal cuts that were due to end this year, as well as a roughly 1.66 million-barrels-per-day voluntary reduction that also covered the period. These curbs will now carry through into the whole of 2025.
Several OPEC+ members also stretched out 2.2 million barrels per day of additional voluntary cuts from the second quarter of 2024 into the third one, with a view to gradually return these volumes to the market by September 2025 thereafter.
“I think there is a great deal of commodity trading advisors … as well as [algorithms], and the options market, which is a substantially large market of contracts that is influencing the latest price movement,” Almoqbel added.
“If you look at every OPEC+ meeting that was held over the past 36 months, you will notice that following every meeting, there is a downward movement of prices.”
Oil prices bowed below $80 barrels per day despite this prospect of market tightness, with the Ice Brent contract with August expiry at $77.59 at 11:14 a.m. London time Wednesday, up 7 cents per barrel from the Tuesday close. The front-month Nymex WTI contract was at $73.28 per barrel, higher by 3 cents per barrel from the Tuesday settlement.
“Oil prices have fallen by almost USD 5/bbl since last Friday. While some blame the OPEC+ meeting for the drop, we believe other factors — such as the option market—have played a role,” UBS strategist Giovanni Staunovo said in a Tuesday note to clients.
“Prices are likely to remain volatile in the near term. Renewed inventory draws are needed to push oil prices higher, in our view.”
Within oil markets, options are often used as hedging mechanisms to protect against price changes.
Protective “put” and “call” contracts — types of financial derivatives — can set a downside and upside limit for the range in which a price can vary before a position is terminated. Futures hedging can also be applied to defend the value of crude production or of transacted cargoes in the physical market.
The OPEC+ weekend output strategy decision has so far failed to boost prices, given the voluntary cutters’ early announcement of how they plan to reinstate their 2.2 million barrels per day of supplies after the end of the third quarter. The meeting offered a “bearish surprise” to the market and has boosted the downside risk for Goldman Sachs’ forecast that Ice Brent will hit a range of $75 to $90 per barrel, Daan Struyven, head of oil research at the investment bank, told clients in a note.
Also looming large is an uncertain outlook for demand that has put the OPEC Secretariat and Paris-based IEA at opposite ends of a wide spectrum. OPEC’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report of May projects a 2.25 million barrel-per-day increase this year, while the IEA forecasts just a 1.06 million-barrel-per-day demand hike. Demand typically picks up during the summer because of higher gasoline consumption amid a seasonal increase in driving — and the end of maintenance at refineries in China, the world’s largest crude importer.
Yet three crude traders, who could only speak anonymously because of confidentiality agreements, told CNBC that the call on crude from Asia has been low, with one adding that a part of the forthcoming demand increase has already been “borrowed,” as some physical crude volumes would have been carried forward.
“If you look at the latest price movements, you are under the impression that we are in an oversupplied market. However, if you look at the supply restraints and the reroute of dynamic in the global energy supplies, you would clearly understand that this market is definitely not in a surplus,” Almoqbel said. “And so, it really depends on where you want to look, whether you’re focusing on the supply picture or the demand picture to really tell.”
Venmo, long a centerpiece of PayPal‘s growth story but often criticized for its lack of monetization, is becoming a bigger contributor to the business.
PayPal said Tuesday in its first-quarter earnings release that revenue at Venmo increased 20% year-over-year in the first quarter, though the company didn’t provide a dollar figure. PayPal acquired Venmo in 2013 through the acquisition of parent company Braintree.
While it’s long been a popular consumer service for sending money to friends, Venmo’s ability to drive meaningful revenue has been a major question mark for investors, especially as competition from rivals like Zelle and Square Cash has intensified.
Venmo’s total payment volume rose 10% from a year earlier, but revenue grew twice as fast, reflecting the business opportunity. Venmo only gets revenue from specific products like Pay with Venmo at online checkout, Venmo debit cards, and instant transfers, but not from peer-to-peer payments.
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Ahead of the earnings report, Jefferies analysts noted that Venmo revenue growth appeared to be “accelerating sharply” and flagged its rising contribution to branded checkout as a key area to watch. Compass Point analysts similarly said that while competition from Zelle and Square Cash remains fierce, Venmo’s traction with debit cards and online checkout could “open up new monetization avenues” if adoption trends continue.
The company added nearly 2 million first-time PayPal and Venmo debit card users during the quarter, and total debit card payment volume across PayPal and Venmo climbed more than 60%. Meanwhile, Pay with Venmo transaction volume surged 50% year over year, and Venmo debit card monthly active users grew about 40%.
PayPal reported better-than-expected earnings for the quarter but missed on revenue. The company reaffirmed its full-year guidance, citing macroeconomic uncertainty.
CEO of PayPal Alex Chriss speaks during the Semafor 2025 World Economy Summit at Conrad Washington on April 24, 2025 in Washington, DC.
Alex Wong | Getty Images
PayPalreported better-than-expected earnings for the first quarter, but the company missed on revenue and reaffirmed its guidance for 2025 due to macro uncertainty. The stock fell about 2% in pre-market trading.
Here’s how the company did compared with Wall Street estimates, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:
Earnings per share: $1.33, adjusted vs. $1.16 expected
Revenue: $7.79 billion vs. $7.85 billion expected
While sales increased just 1% from $7.7 billion a year earlier, PayPal said the results reflect a strategy to prioritize profitability over volume, rolling off lower-margin revenue streams.
Transaction margin dollars, the company’s key measure of profitability, grew 7% to $3.7 billion, marking the company’s fifth consecutive quarter of profitable growth under CEO Alex Chriss.
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PayPal shares are down 24% this year, while the Nasdaq has dropped 10%
Total payment volume, an indication of how digital payments are faring in the broader economy, missed estimates, coming in at $417.2 billion, versus the nearly $418 billion analysts projected. The number of active accounts rose 2% from a year earlier to 436 million.
Venmo revenue rose 20% year over year, though the company didn’t provide a dollar figure. Total payment volume for Venmo increased 10% to $75.9 billion. Pay with Venmo transaction volume climbed 50% in the quarter and Venmo debit card monthly active users increased by about 40%.
Chriss has focused on better monetizing key acquisitions like Braintree and Venmo. DoorDash,Starbucksand Ticketmaster are among businesses now accepting Venmo as one way that consumers can pay.
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Ahead of PayPal’s earnings report, some analysts had struck a cautious tone despite the company’s focus on margin expansion. Morgan Stanley analysts warned in a note on Monday that investor sentiment remained bearish due to the potential impact of tariffs, competitive pressure from Apple and Shopify, and the risk of a long-term slowdown in branded checkout growth.
Jefferies analysts highlighted PayPal’s China cross-border exposure as an emerging risk tied to potential new tariffs and changes to the de minimis exemption.
For the second quarter, PayPal issued better-than-expected guidance, forecasting adjusted earnings per share of $1.29 to $1.31, above the average analyst estimate of $1.21. Transaction margin dollars will increase 4% to 5% to between $3.75 billion and $3.8 billion, the company said.
However, for the full year, PayPal chose to reaffirm its guidance, citing “global macroeconomic uncertainty.” The company expects earnings per share of $4.95 to $5.10 for the year and free cash flow in the range of $6 billion to $7 billion.
PayPal shares are down 24% this year, while the Nasdaq has dropped 10%.
British oil and gasoline company BP (British Petroleum) signage is being pictured in Warsaw, Poland, on July 29, 2024.
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British oil giant BP on Tuesday posted slightly weaker-than-expected first-quarter net profit, following a recent strategic reset and a slump in crude prices.
The beleaguered oil and gas major posted underlying replacement cost profit, used as a proxy for net profit, of $1.38 billion for the first three months of the year. That missed analyst expectations of $1.6 billion, according to an LSEG-compiled consensus.
BP’s net profit had hit $2.7 billion a year earlier and $1.2 billion in the final three months of 2024.
The results come as the energy major faces fresh pressure from activist investors less than two months after announcing a strategic reset.
Seeking to rebuild investor confidence, BP in February pledged to slash renewable spending and boost annual expenditure on its core business of oil and gas.
BP CEO Murray Auchincloss told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Tuesday that the firm was “off to a great start” in delivering on its strategic reset.
“We had a great operational quarter. We had our highest upstream operating efficiency in history. Our refineries in the first quarter ran at the best they’ve run in 24 years. We had six exploration discoveries in a row, which is really unusual and we started out three major projects,” Auchincloss said.
For the first quarter, BP announced a dividend per ordinary share of 8 cents and a share buyback of $750 million.
Net debt rose to $26.97 billion in the January-March period, up from $22.99 billion at the end of the fourth quarter. BP had previously warned of lower reported upstream production and higher net debt in the first quarter, when compared to the final three months of last year.
Shares of BP fell 3.3% on Tuesday morning. The firm is down roughly 8% year-to-date.
Activist pressure
BP’s green strategy U-turn does not appear to have gone far enough for the likes of activist investor Elliott Management, which went public last week with a stake of more than 5% in the London-listed firm.
The disclosure makes the U.S. hedge fund BP’s second-largest shareholder after BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, according to LSEG data.
Elliott was first reported to have assumed a position in the oil and gas company back in February, driving a share price rally amid expectations that its involvement could pressure BP to shift gears back toward its oil and gas businesses.
BP’s Auchincloss declined to comment on interactions with investors when asked whether the firm was under pressure from the likes of Elliott to go beyond the plans announced in its February pivot.
Notably, BP suffered a shareholder rebellion at its annual general meeting earlier this month. Almost a quarter (24.3%) of investors voted against the re-election of outgoing Chair Helge Lund, a symbolic result that reflected a sense of deep frustration among the firm’s shareholders.
Mark van Baal, founder of Dutch activist investor Follow This, told CNBC last week that he hoped the shareholder revolt means Amanda Blanc, who is leading the process to find Lund’s successor, will look for a new chair who is “climate competent” and “will not respond to short-term activists so quickly.”
Lund is expected to step down from his role next year.
Takeover candidate
BP’s underperformance relative to industry peers such as Exxon Mobil, Chevron and Shell has thrust the energy major into the spotlight as a prime takeover candidate. Energy analysts have questioned, however, whether any of the likeliest suitors will rise to the occasion.
BP’s Auchincloss on Tuesday said that he wouldn’t speculate on whether the company is a takeover target, but confirmed the oil major had not asked for any sort of protection from the British government.
“What I will say is we’re a strong, independent company and we’ve got sector-leading growth. And if we can deliver the sector-leading growth, and the first quarter is a fantastic example of that, then I have no concerns. I think we’re going to do great,” Auchincloss said.
Murray Auchincloss, chief executive officer of BP, during the “CERAWeek by S&P Global” conference in Houston, Texas, on March 11, 2025.
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Oil prices have fallen in recent months on demand fears. International benchmark Brent crude futures with June delivery traded at $65.19 per barrel on Tuesday morning, down more than 1% for the session. That’s lower from around $84 per barrel a year ago.
Asked whether weaker crude prices could put the some of the firm’s reset plans in jeopardy, Auchincloss said, “Not really. We have a balance of products that we think about that generate revenue for us. So, oil, natural gas and refined products as well.”
— CNBC’s Ruxandra Iordache contributed to this report.