Reform UK pulls to within two points of Tories in latest YouGov poll

Published

1 year ago

June 5, 2024

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Reform UK has pulled to within two points of the Conservatives, according to the latest YouGov poll of the election campaign for Sky News.

The latest exclusive weekly survey, conducted on Monday and Tuesday before the head-to-head TV debate, puts Labour on 40%, the Tories on 19%, Reform UK on 17%, the Liberal Democrats on 10% and the Greens on 7%.

Most of the poll, which was carried out using different methodology to last week’s survey, was conducted after Nigel Farage became leader of Reform on Monday.

Compared to the last voting intention poll taken on Thursday and Friday, the Conservatives are down two, Labour is down six, the Lib Dems are up two and Reform is up two.

This means under the new methodology, the lead for Labour is 21 points.

YouGov interviewed 2,144 GB adults online.

The impact of the methodological change – which applies modelling to turnout and the behaviour of don’t knows – is typically to reduce the Labour lead by three and increase the Lib Dem share by about two. There is usually no boost to the Tory share.

YouGov says the impact on this particular poll of the methodological change is slightly bigger because of rounding, and the Labour lead under the old method would have been 27 points, up from the 25-point lead at the end of last week.

The poll is likely to worry some Conservatives, who fear losing voters on the right of their party to Reform UK – especially now Mr Farage is at the helm.

The veteran Eurosceptic on Monday announced he would not only take over as Reform’s leader, but also stand as a candidate in Clacton, Essex.

This will be his eighth time trying to be an MP, having never previously succeeded.

He had initially ruled out standing but said he had a “terrible sense of guilt” for not putting himself forward when the election was called.

Mr Farage has ruled out doing a deal with the Tories – as he did in 2019 when Reform was known as the Brexit party – saying at his campaign launch that he has been “betrayed by a Conservative Party I have given considerable help to”.

He said his goal was to win “millions” more votes than UKIP had, which was another party he previously led, and make Reform the official opposition.

A YouGov MRP poll of 53,334 people in England and Wales and 5,541 in Scotland, published on Monday, had the Conservatives likely to win Clacton but that was before Mr Farage made his dramatic announcement to return to frontline politics.

Politics

California governor signs laws establishing safeguards over AI chatbots

Published

43 mins ago

October 13, 2025

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California governor signs laws establishing safeguards over AI chatbots

The laws will likely impact social media companies and websites offering services to California residents, including minors, using AI tools.

Politics

UK played ‘vital role’ in Gaza peace deal, says Trump aide, after minister branded ‘delusional’

Published

3 hours ago

October 13, 2025

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UK played 'vital role' in Gaza peace deal, says Trump aide, after minister branded 'delusional'

Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy to the Middle East, has claimed the UK played a “vital role” in helping negotiate the Gaza peace deal, smoothing over a potential diplomatic row between London and Washington.

Witkoff took to X on Monday, ahead of meeting President Donald Trump in Israel, to praise the UK.

“I would like to acknowledge the vital role of the United Kingdom in assisting and coordinating efforts that have led us to this historic day in Israel,” Witkoff wrote.

“In particular, I want to recognise the incredible input and tireless efforts of National Security Advisor Jonathan Powell.”

His comments came 24 hours after education secretary Bridget Phillipson was branded “delusional” by Mike Huckabee, the US ambassador to Israel, for claiming that Sir Keir Starmer’s presence at a signing ceremony for today’s ceasefire deal in Egypt “demonstrates the key role that we [Britain] have played”.

The minister made her remarks on Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips but did not say exactly what the UK’s role in the ceasefire, largely attributed to Donald Trump, is or was.

Politics latest: Phillipson announces crackdown on antisemitism at UK universities

Phillipson added: “We have played a key role behind the scenes in shaping this.

“It’s right that we do so because it’s in all of our interest, including our own national interest, that we move to a lasting peace in the region.

“These are complex matters of diplomacy that we are involved in. But we do welcome and recognise the critical role that the American government played in moving us to this point.”

Her comments prompted Mr Huckabee to repost the Sky News clip on social media, claiming: “I assure you she’s delusional.”

He added: “She can thank Donald Trump anytime just to set the record straight.”

Mr Huckabee was part of the negotiating team for the peace deal, with Mr Trump calling the former Arkansas governor “AMAZING” as he said he “worked so hard, and did so much, to bring about peace in the Middle East”.

In August, Mr Huckabee said the UK and other European nations that said they would declare a Palestinian state were “having the counterproductive effect that they probably think that they want”.

Israel: UK did not play key role in peace deal

Israel’s deputy foreign affairs minister, Sharren Haskell backed Huckabee, telling Sky News the UK played “the opposite” of a key role in the peace deal after recognising the Palestinian state.

“The message that the UK government has sent Hamas was the message that: the longer they continue this war, they will be rewarded.

“I mean, you must understand that when a terrorist organisation is thanking you. You are on the wrong side of history.”

It is understood the prime minister has underlined Mr Trump’s key role in securing this deal throughout the process. Publicly, he praised Mr Trump twice in his press conference in India on Thursday.

Ms Phillipson stood by the September decision to declare a Palestinian state, saying it was “the right thing to do”.

Husam Zomlot, the Palestinian ambassador to the UK, told Sky News it was a “moment of leadership” for the UK to declare a Palestinian state, and a “responsibility to begin to correct a century of the gravest historic injustices committed against our people”.

He added: “That moment three weeks ago, when the UK did recognise, is a moment when we can say that the wheels of history are turning in a different direction.”

No plans for British troops on the ground

The education secretary also told Sky News the government has “no plans” to put British troops into Israel or Gaza as part of a stabilisation force after the ceasefire.

The US military will help establish a multinational force in Israel, known as a civil-military coordination centre, which is likely to include troops from Egypt, Qatar, Turkey and the UAE.

On Friday, US officials said up to 200 US troops already based in the Middle East will be moved to Israel to help monitor the ceasefire in Gaza.

The day before, President Trump announced Israel and Hamas had “signed off on the first phase” of a peace plan he unveiled last week.

Aid trucks have been gathering in Egypt to cross into Gaza after months of warnings by aid groups of famine in parts of the territory.

In Israel, the remaining hostages are due to be returned from Gaza by Hamas on Monday under the first phase of the peace plan. Twenty are believed to still be alive, 26 have been declared dead, while the fate of two is unknown.

The ceasefire agreement has been made two years after Hamas stormed Israel on 7 October 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages.

Israel’s military offensive has killed more than 67,000 Palestinians in Gaza, according to the Hamas-run health ministry, which the UN deems reliable.