Reform UK pulls to within two points of Tories in latest YouGov poll

Published

1 year ago

June 5, 2024

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Reform UK has pulled to within two points of the Conservatives, according to the latest YouGov poll of the election campaign for Sky News.

The latest exclusive weekly survey, conducted on Monday and Tuesday before the head-to-head TV debate, puts Labour on 40%, the Tories on 19%, Reform UK on 17%, the Liberal Democrats on 10% and the Greens on 7%.

Most of the poll, which was carried out using different methodology to last week’s survey, was conducted after Nigel Farage became leader of Reform on Monday.

Compared to the last voting intention poll taken on Thursday and Friday, the Conservatives are down two, Labour is down six, the Lib Dems are up two and Reform is up two.

This means under the new methodology, the lead for Labour is 21 points.

YouGov interviewed 2,144 GB adults online.

The impact of the methodological change – which applies modelling to turnout and the behaviour of don’t knows – is typically to reduce the Labour lead by three and increase the Lib Dem share by about two. There is usually no boost to the Tory share.

YouGov says the impact on this particular poll of the methodological change is slightly bigger because of rounding, and the Labour lead under the old method would have been 27 points, up from the 25-point lead at the end of last week.

The poll is likely to worry some Conservatives, who fear losing voters on the right of their party to Reform UK – especially now Mr Farage is at the helm.

The veteran Eurosceptic on Monday announced he would not only take over as Reform’s leader, but also stand as a candidate in Clacton, Essex.

This will be his eighth time trying to be an MP, having never previously succeeded.

He had initially ruled out standing but said he had a “terrible sense of guilt” for not putting himself forward when the election was called.

Mr Farage has ruled out doing a deal with the Tories – as he did in 2019 when Reform was known as the Brexit party – saying at his campaign launch that he has been “betrayed by a Conservative Party I have given considerable help to”.

He said his goal was to win “millions” more votes than UKIP had, which was another party he previously led, and make Reform the official opposition.

A YouGov MRP poll of 53,334 people in England and Wales and 5,541 in Scotland, published on Monday, had the Conservatives likely to win Clacton but that was before Mr Farage made his dramatic announcement to return to frontline politics.

Politics

MP Zarah Sultana who was ousted from Labour announces she is starting new political party with Jeremy Corbyn

Published

6 hours ago

July 3, 2025

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MP Zarah Sultana who was ousted from Labour announces she is starting new political party with Jeremy Corbyn

An MP who was ousted from the Labour Party has announced she is setting up a new political party with Jeremy Corbyn.

Independent MP Zarah Sultana said she and the former Labour leader will co-lead the new party, which she did not provide a name for.

She said other independent MPs, campaigners and activists from across the country will join them, but did not name anyone.

Politics latest: Zarah Sultana’s stinging resignation letter

Ms Sultana also said she was “resigning” from the Labour Party after 14 years.

She was suspended as a Labour MP shortly after they came to power last summer for voting against the government maintaining the two-child benefit cap.

Several others from the left of the party, including Mr Corbyn, were also suspended for voting against the government, and also remained as independent MPs.

However, Ms Sultana was still a member of the Labour Party – until now.

Mr Corbyn has previously said the independent MPs who were suspended from Labour would “come together” to provide an “alternative.

The other four are: Iqbal Mohamed, Shockat Adam, Ayoub Khan and Adnan Hussain.

Mr Corbyn and the other four independents have not said if they are part of the new party Ms Sultana announced.

In her announcement, Ms Sultana said she would vote to abolish the two-child benefit cap again and also voted against scrapping the winter fuel payment for most pensioners.

Ms Sultana also voted against the government’s welfare bill this week, which was heavily watered down as Sir Keir Starmer tried to prevent a major rebellion from his own MPs.

On Wednesday, Ms Sultana spoke passionately against Palestine Action being proscribed as a terror organisation – but MPs eventually voted for it to be.

She said to proscribe it is “a deliberate distortion of the law to chill dissent, criminalise solidarity and suppress the truth”.

Ms Sultana said they were founding the new party because “Westminster is broken but the real crisis is deeper – just 50 families now own more wealth than half the UK population”.

She called Reform leader Nigel Farage “a billionaire-backed grifter” leading the polls “because Labour has completely failed to improve people’s lives.

The MP, who has spoken passionately about Gaza, added: “Across the political establishment, from Farage to Starmer, they smear people of conscience trying to stop a genocide in Gaza as terrorists.

“But the truth is clear: this government is an active participant in genocide. And the British people oppose it.

“We are not going to take this anymore.”

A Labour Party spokesperson said: “In just 12 months, this Labour government has boosted wages, delivered an extra four million NHS appointments, opened 750 free breakfast clubs, secured three trade deals and four interest rate cuts lowering mortgage payments for millions.

“Only Labour can deliver the change needed to renew Britain.”