Reform UK has pulled to within two points of the Conservatives, according to the latest YouGov poll of the election campaign for Sky News.
The latest exclusive weekly survey, conducted on Monday and Tuesday before the head-to-head TV debate, puts Labour on 40%, the Tories on 19%, Reform UK on 17%, the Liberal Democrats on 10% and the Greens on 7%.
Compared to the last voting intention poll taken on Thursday and Friday, the Conservatives are down two, Labour is down six, the Lib Dems are up two and Reform is up two.
This means under the new methodology, the lead for Labour is 21 points.
YouGov interviewed 2,144 GB adults online.
The impact of the methodological change – which applies modelling to turnout and the behaviour of don’t knows – is typically to reduce the Labour lead by three and increase the Lib Dem share by about two. There is usually no boost to the Tory share.
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YouGov says the impact on this particular poll of the methodological change is slightly bigger because of rounding, and the Labour lead under the old method would have been 27 points, up from the 25-point lead at the end of last week.
Image: Nigel Farage (R) has taken over Richard Tice (L) as leader of the Reform party. Pic: PA
The poll is likely to worry some Conservatives, who fear losing voters on the right of their party to Reform UK – especially now Mr Farage is at the helm.
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The veteran Eurosceptic on Monday announced he would not only take over as Reform’s leader, but also stand as a candidate in Clacton, Essex.
This will be his eighth time trying to be an MP, having never previously succeeded.
He had initially ruled out standing but said he had a “terrible sense of guilt” for not putting himself forward when the election was called.
Mr Farage has ruled out doing a deal with the Tories – as he did in 2019 when Reform was known as the Brexit party – saying at his campaign launch that he has been “betrayed by a Conservative Party I have given considerable help to”.
He said his goal was to win “millions” more votes than UKIP had, which was another party he previously led, and make Reform the official opposition.
A YouGov MRP pollof 53,334 people in England and Wales and 5,541 in Scotland, published on Monday, had the Conservatives likely to win Clacton but that was before Mr Farage made his dramatic announcement to return to frontline politics.
Specialist investigation teams for rape and sexual offences are to be created across England and Wales as the Home Secretary declares violence against women and girls a “national emergency”.
Shabana Mahmood said the dedicated units will be in place across every force by 2029 as part of Labour’s violence against women and girls (VAWG) strategy due to be launched later this week.
The use of Domestic Abuse Protection Orders (DAPOs), which had been trialled in several areas, will also be rolled out across England and Wales. They are designed to target abusers by imposing curfews, electronic tags and exclusion zones.
The orders cover all forms of domestic abuse, including economic abuse, coercive and controlling behaviour, stalking and ‘honour’-based abuse. Breaching the terms can carry a prison term of up to 5 years.
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Govt ‘thinking again’ on abuse strategy
Nearly £2m will also be spent funding a network of officers to target offenders operating within the online space.
Teams will use covert and intelligence techniques to tackle violence against women and girls via apps and websites.
A similar undercover network funded by the Home Office to examine child sexual abuse has arrested over 1,700 perpetrators.
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Abuse is ‘national emergency’
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood said in a statement: “This government has declared violence against women and girls a national emergency.
“For too long, these crimes have been considered a fact of life. That’s not good enough. We will halve it in a decade.
“Today we announce a range of measures to bear down on abusers, stopping them in their tracks. Rapists, sex offenders and abusers will have nowhere to hide.”
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Angiolini Inquiry: Recommendations are ‘not difficult’
The government said the measures build on existing policy, including facial recognition technology to identify offenders, improving protections for stalking victims, making strangulation a criminal offence and establishing domestic abuse specialists in 999 control rooms.
But the Conservatives said Labour had “failed women” and “broken its promises” by delaying the publication of the violence against women and girls strategy.
Shadow Home Secretary, Chris Philp, said that Labour “shrinks from uncomfortable truths, voting against tougher sentences and presiding over falling sex-offender convictions. At every turn, Labour has failed women.”
There have been no migrant arrivals in small boats crossing the Channel for 28 days, according to Home Office figures.
The last recorded arrivals were on 14 November, making it the longest uninterrupted run since autumn 2018 after no reported arrivals on Friday.
However, a number of Border Force vessels were active in the English Channel on Saturday morning, indicating that there may be arrivals today.
So far, 39,292 people have crossed to the UK aboard small boats this year – already more than any other year except 2022.
The record that year was set at 45,774 arrivals.
It comes as the government has stepped up efforts in recent months to deter people from risking their lives crossing the Channel – but measures are not expected to have an impact until next year.
Image: Debris of a small boat used by people thought to be migrants to cross the Channel lays amongst the sand dunes in Gravelines, France. Pic: PA
December is normally one of the quietest for Channel crossings, with a combination of poor visibility, low temperatures, less daylight and stormy weather making the perilous journey more difficult.
The most arrivals recorded in the month of December is 3,254, in 2024.
Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy met with ministers from other European countries this week as discussions over possible reform to the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) continue.
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France agrees to start intercepting small boats
The issue of small boat arrivals – a very small percentage of overall UK immigration – has become a salient issue in British politics in recent years.
The King has shared in a television address that, thanks to early diagnosis, his cancer treatment can be reduced in the new year.
In a televised address, Charles said his “good news” was “thanks to early diagnosis, effective intervention and adherence to doctors’ orders”.
“This milestone is both a personal blessing and a testimony to the remarkable advances that have been made in cancer care in recent years,” he added.
“Testimony that I hope may give encouragement to the 50% of us who will be diagnosed with the illness at some point in our lives.”
The King announced in February 2024 that he had been diagnosed with cancer and was beginning treatment.
The monarch postponed all public-facing engagements, but continued with his duties as head of state behind palace walls, conducting audiences and Privy Council meetings.
He returned to public duties in April last year and visited University College Hospital Macmillan Cancer Centre in central London with the Queen and discussed his “shock” at being diagnosed when he spoke to a fellow cancer patient.
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Sources suggested last December his treatment would continue in 2025 and was “moving in a positive direction”.
Image: The King began returning to public duties in April last year. File pic: PA
The King has chosen not to reveal what kind of cancer he has been treated for. Palace sources have partly put that down to the fact that he doesn’t want one type of cancer to appear more significant or attract more attention than others.
In a statement after the speech aired, a Buckingham Palace spokesperson said: “His Majesty has responded exceptionally well to treatment and his doctors advise that ongoing measures will now move into a precautionary phase.”
Sir Keir Starmer praised the video message as “a powerful message,” and said: “I know I speak for the entire country when I say how glad I am that his cancer treatment will be reduced in the new year.
“Early cancer screening saves lives.”
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Watch: King Charles gives update on treatment
Early detection can give ‘the precious gift of hope’
His message on Friday was broadcast at 8pm in support of Stand Up To Cancer, a joint campaign by Cancer Research UK and Channel 4.
In an appeal to people to get screened for the disease early, the King said: “I know from my own experience that a cancer diagnosis can feel overwhelming.
“Yet I also know that early detection is the key that can transform treatment journeys, giving invaluable time to medical teams – and, to their patients, the precious gift of hope. These are gifts we can all help deliver.”
Charles noted that “at least nine million people in our country are not up to date with the cancer screenings available to them,” adding: “That is at least nine million opportunities for early diagnosis being missed.
“The statistics speak with stark clarity. To take just one example: When bowel cancer is caught at the earliest stage, around nine in ten people survive for at least five years.
“When diagnosed late, that falls to just one in ten. Early diagnosis quite simply saves lives.”
after months of uncertainty, some relief and reassurance for the King
This is a rare but positive update. The King in his own words speaking about his cancer.
And it’s good news.
Since his diagnosis, he’s received weekly treatment. His work schedule has had to fit around the appointments. And while it’s not stopping, it is being significantly reduced.
He’s responded well, and his recovery has reached, we understand, a very positive stage.
The King’s decision to speak publicly and so personally is unusual.
He has deliberately chosen the moment, supporting the high-profile Stand Up To Cancer campaign, and the launch of a national online screening checker.
It still hasn’t been revealed what kind of cancer he has. And there’s a reason – firstly, it’s private information.
But more importantly, the King knows the power of sharing his story. And with it, the potential to support the wider cancer community.
We are once again seeing a candid openness from the Royal Family. Earlier this year, the Princess of Wales discussed the ups and downs of her cancer journey.
These moments signal a shift towards greater transparency on matters the Royal Family once kept entirely private.
For millions facing cancer, the King’s update is empathy and encouragement from someone who understands.
And after months of uncertainty, for the King himself, some relief and reassurance.
Minor inconvenience of screening ‘a small price to pay’
The King acknowledged that people often avoid screening “because they imagine it may be frightening, embarrassing or uncomfortable”. But, he added: “If and when they do finally take up their invitation, they are glad they took part.
“A few moments of minor inconvenience are a small price to pay for the reassurance that comes for most people when they are either told either they don’t need further tests, or, for some, are given the chance to enable early detection, with the life-saving intervention that can follow.”
Giving his “most heartfelt thanks” to doctors, nurses, researchers and charity workers, the King added: “As I have observed before, the darkest moments of illness can be illuminated by the greatest compassion. But compassion must be paired with action.
“This December, as we gather to reflect on the year past, I pray that we can each pledge, as part of our resolutions for the year ahead, to play our part in helping to catch cancer early.
“Your life – or the life of someone you love – may depend upon it.”