Freightliner eCascadia; via Daimler Trucks North America (DTNA)
US diesel demand plummeted to its lowest seasonal level in 26 years last quarter – but is that due to a down economy, or booming commercial EV sales?
The production of distillate, the petroleum-based fuel that powers trucking, heating, and heavy industry, plunged to 3.67 million barrels per day in March (down from more 4.1 million barrels last year) according to monthly data from the US Energy Information Administration. That figure marks a downward revision from the agency’s previous estimates, and is even lower than the same month in 2020 (3.96 million). But, while less oil is generally good for people and planet, it’s not always good for profits.
“The deteriorating diesel market is a warning signal that broader oil demand growth could be at risk,” according to a quote attributed to Dennis Kissler, senior vice president for trading at BOK Financial Securities, by Transport Topics. “Consumption of the fuel tends to fall as the economy slows, and a slowing economy presages waning demand for other fuels.”
“It’s a function of the slowing of the economies in Asia and the US and how inflation is tightening consumer spending habits,” Kissler said, continuing to spin a decline in oil consumption as a bad thing. “They’re not going out and spending money like they were a year ago.”
Is it really inflation, or is it EVs?
The last diesel-powered Volvo rolls off the assembly line; via Volvo.
Volvo’s not alone. Companies like Nissan, Hyundai, and Daimler (parent company of Mercedes-Benz and the Freightliner and Rizon truck brands) have also backed away from developing new internal combustion engines.
And, while we’re on the topic of Daimler’s truck brands, it’s worth noting that commercial EV sales are soaring. Despite all the doom, gloom, and wishful thinking from the pro-oil/anti-EV crowd, the numbers paint a narrative of swift expansion in the commercial EV and ZEV (Zero-Emission Vehicle) markets, with CALSTART’s latest figures revealing a remarkable 250% growth in the zero-emission heavy truck market.
Those same CALSTART figures, from January of this year, show that the US had seen the deployment of more than 14,000 battery-electric cargo vans in 2023, with a significant surge of 11,835 units deployed in the first half of that year, alone. That is a staggering 461% increase in deployments compared to CALSTART’s previous report – and the electrification of large commercial fleets is a trend that doesn’t seem to be slowing down.
The “hockey stick” growth curve; via CALSTART.
Take a good look at the numbers for HD trucks. The CALSTART graph shows “just” 867 units on the road, sure – but consider some recent news stories that are blowing that number out of the water:
I could keep going, but you get the idea: there are hundreds, if not thousands of electric trucks on the road today that weren’t this time last year – and if you don’t think that’s putting a damper on diesel demand I have a bridge to sell you.
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) v14, its first major update in a year, disappoints as data points to a lower increase in miles between disengagements than expected.
The system also features new hallucinations, brake stabbing, and excessive speeding.
The update has been highly anticipated for several reasons.
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First off, it has been a year since Tesla released any significant FSD update to customers, as it focused on its internal robotaxi fleet in Austin. The update is believed to feature improvements developed through Tesla’s robotaxi fleet, which requires supervising like its consumer FSD.
Secondly, CEO Elon Musk has claimed that Tesla still plans for “Supervised Full Self-Driving” to become unsupervised by the end of the year in consumer vehicles. For that to happen, we needed to see a massive improvement from v13 to v14.
As I previously reported, I anticipated an improvement in miles between critical disengagements from ~400 miles in v13 to ~800 to 1,200 miles in v14. It would be a significant improvement, but still way short of what’s needed to make FSD unsupervised.
Tesla notoriously doesn’t release any data about its FSD program. Musk has literally told people to rely on anecdotal experiences posted on social media to gauge progress.
Fortunately, there’s a crowdsourced dataset that gives us some data to track progress with miles between critical disengagement. It’s far from perfect, but it is literally the best data available, and Musk himself has shared the dataset in the past – albeit while misrepresenting it.
In the last week, Tesla started pushing the FSD v14 update (now v14.1.4) to more owners – resulting in more crowdsourced data and anecdotal evidence.
With now over 4,000 miles of FSD v14 data, miles between critical disengagement sits about 732 miles – below the lower end of our expectations:
Tesla would need to be closer to 10,000 miles between critical disengagements to allow unsupervised operation, and even then, it would likely be in geo-fenced areas with speed limitations.
This is unlikely to happen by the end of the year, as Musk predicted, as FSD v14 appears to have some significant issues still.
First off, many FSD v14 drivers are reporting that the update is having problems with hallucinations where the car decides to stop on the side of the road seemingly randomly:
I had a great first day with FSD v14.1.4! Multiple hands-free, point-to-point rides with no disengagements. A few “brake stabbing” events were slightly annoying but not dangerous.
It does seem like FSD v14 sometimes misinterprets other vehicles’ turn signals as emergency vehicle lights and pulls over.
In some cases, FSD v14 has been known to completely disable FSD features inside vehicles:
V14 is getting really annoying. Summon continued to fail with an error condition. Now in the car and FSD just isn’t functional. I don’t get it. Come on, Tesla. My brother got the same issue yesterday where his facia camera was nonfunctional and went black, obviously disabling FSD… pic.twitter.com/D8H8DY83sC
Many FSD v14 drivers have also reported an increase in “brake stabbing”, where the vehicle seems to hesitate and frantically applies the brakes and releases them – resulting in a stabbing motion.
Now, I don’t want to hear anything about my use of anecdotal evidence and crowdsourced data. That’s literally the best data available for FSD.
Unlike virtually all other companies developing self-driving technology, Tesla refuses to release any.
If it were to release some data, I’d be happy to use it.
One thing is clear from v14 so far: unsupervised FSD in consumer vehicles is not happening in any meaningful way this year.
I expect significant improvements in upcoming FSD v14 point updates. Maybe enough to get it to my previous expectations of ~800 to 1,200 miles between disengagements, but that’s about it.
Finally, while I generally don’t count on NHTSA to enforce any rule in any significant way when it comes to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” effort, I think they might actually do something about “Mad Max.”
This video on Instagram has 4.5 million views, and it shows extremely dangerous driving behavior at up to 90 mph (145 km/h)
I think the authorities will have to intervene here, because it makes no sense for an unproven autonomous driving system to be able to operate under those parameters.
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Toyota’s best-selling car is finally going electric. The Corolla EV looks more like a Porsche or BMW than the Toyota vehicles on the road today, but that’s just the start.
The Toyota Corolla is evolving into a rad-looking EV
After revealing the Corolla Concept for the first time at the Japan Mobility Show on Tuesday, Toyota’s CEO, Koji Sato, said the compact car has always been “a car for everyone.”
Since it hit the market over 50 years ago, Toyota has sold well over 50 million Corollas. The Corolla even surpassed the VW Beetle in the 90s to become the world’s best-selling vehicle. Like the Prius, Toyota’s compact car lured in buyers with an affordable price and a reputation as a reliable daily driver.
Although it’s still a top-seller, the Corolla has lost some of its charm as more advanced, stylish, and efficient electric cars hit the market.
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Toyota looks to change that with a drastic overhaul that takes the Corolla to the next level. To stay relevant, Sato asked the crowd at the event, “How should the Corolla evolve?”
Toyota CEO Koji Sato reveals the Corolla Concept at the Japan Mobility Show (Source: Toyota)
We all want to drive a car that looks cool, but there’s much more to it nowadays. Buyers are increasingly seeking more efficient vehicles with the latest software, connectivity technology, and other features.
“Whether it’s a battery EV, plug-in hybrid, hybrid, or internal combustion engine vehicle―whatever the power source―let’s make good-looking cars that everyone will want to drive!” Toyota’s CEO said, adding the car is “packed with inventions aimed at making that a reality.”
Although Toyota didn’t confirm the concept was headed for production, the next-gen Corolla is expected to arrive with a similar style.
The concept still features Toyota’s newest design elements, like the “hammerhead” front end, but with a bit more of a futuristic feel.
You can barely tell the concept is a Corolla, aside from the massive COROLLA badging on the rear. Toyota didn’t reveal any powertrain details, but the charge port and closed-off grille suggest it’s an EV.
The next-gen Toyota Corolla is expected to be offered as an EV, a plug-in hybrid, a hybrid, and, likely, still an ICE variant.
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Three months after Uber, Lucid Motors, and Nuro announced a partnership that would enable Gravity SUV robotaxis, the rideshare network has shared where the public will first be able to hail one. Spoiler alert, it’s easy to guess if you give it half a thought.
As we reported in July, Uber Technologies committed to a $300 million investment in Lucid Group (parent company of American EV automaker Lucid Motors), to deploy at least 20,000 Lucid vehicles as robotaxis over the next six years.
Those Lucid vehicles, which will consist of the automaker’s flagship Gravity SUV to begin, will hit public roads equipped with a Level 4 autonomous system called Nuro Driver. Nuro, the third partner in this equation, is a robotics company specializing in zero-occupant delivery vehicles, which garnered an existing partnership with Uber Eats as well as a “hefty” (yet undisclosed) investment from Uber Technologies.
Last month, Lucid delivered its first Gravity SUV to Nuro to begin the retrofitting process of the Nuro Driver system to support Uber’s hopes for a luxe robotaxi fleet. While the partners continue to work toward building an exciting new fleet of Lucid Gravity Robotaxis, Uber has shared the location where they will first go into service… Casper, Wyoming.
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Just kidding!
It’s the San Francisco Bay Area, of course.
Lucid Gravity SUV fitted with Nuro’s self-driving tech (Source: Lucid)
Uber to deploy Lucid Gravity EVs in Bay Area in 2026
Today’s update from Uber expands upon the ongoing partnership with Lucid Group and Nuro. According to the companies, the San Francisco Bay Area will be the first market where riders will see this next-generation autonomous robotaxi program in operation. That milestone is expected sometime in 2026.
Uber has shared that it has been updating policymakers and regulators at every level on the progress of its exclusive Lucid Robotaxis and continues to meet the operational requirements. Notably, Uber has shared that on-road development with the Lucid Gravity robotaxi engineering fleet is already underway in the Bay Area.
Furthermore, Nuro and Lucid intend to be operating over 100 Gravity robotaxis as part of the test fleet “in the coming months.” Lucid interim CEO, Marc Winterhoff, spoke about today’s announcement:
Lucid has always celebrated its California roots, and we’re thrilled to make the San Francisco Bay Area the first market for our new robotaxi on the Uber platform, powered by the Nuro Driver. Beginning next year, riders will experience a level of convenience, safety, and comfort unlike anything else on the road. We can’t wait to bring this service to life and expand it to communities across the country.
To build this fleet of Uber-exclusive robotaxis, the required hardware will be integrated into Lucid Gravity SUVS while they are still on Lucid’s assembly line in Arizona. Those builds will then be integrated with Nuro’s proprietary software when Uber officially commissions them.
All eyes on 2026 as we now know that residents around the Bay Area will be able to hail a driverless Lucid Gravity through the Uber platform. I’m very much looking forward to seeing this fleet in action.
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