Adam Boulton: Could this be Europe’s ‘Trump moment’? Why EU vote matters for UK

Published

5 months ago

June 9, 2024

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2024 is known as the year of elections because in these 12 months more voters in more countries than ever before will exercise their right to cast a vote to choose who governs them.

That is the march of democracy – even if nobody was convinced when President Putin was elected, again, in Russia.

The UK is in the throes of a general election campaign which could end 14 years of Conservative rule. Americans will decide whether Donald Trump returns to the White House in November.

In India, a victorious Prime Minister Narendra Modi is licking his wounds after his Hindu nationalist BJP underperformed in the world’s largest election.

Right now, the world’s second-largest election is taking place; this weekend and just over the seas surrounding Great Britain.

It has attracted little attention here, even though the UK took part in it right up until 2019. Even though previous elections of this kind kept Nigel Farage alive as a political force. And even though its outcome may be the most directly consequential for the UK, at least in the short run.

This election is also part of a unique experiment. Voters in many countries are electing members of the world’s only functioning trans-national parliament in which MEPs from different countries come together in blocs according to their political ideologies.

Since Thursday, nearly 400 million citizens in the European Union’s 27 member states have had the chance to elect a total of 750 members to the European Parliament (EP).

Appropriately, the EP election started on the 80th anniversary of D-Day, 6 June, in the Netherlands, with Ireland voting on Friday, and most other member states at the weekend, including Belgium which is also holding a national election on Sunday.

This seems appropriate because the parliament is designed to be a peaceful unifier of democratic Europe. It is ironic because some of the parties expected to do well this year have links going back to Franco, Mussolini and Hitler.

The parliament is the only directly elected EU institution. It is less powerful than most national parliaments. EU policy is directed by the Council of Ministers, who are the elected leaders from individual member states. Plans are carried forward by the Commission, an appointed bureaucracy.

The parliament debates, amends and puts proposals into law, as well as overseeing the Commission’s budget, actions and appointments from current president Ursula von der Leyen.

Lots of politicians move between the EP and their national parliaments. Whether they are candidates standing or not, the results of these elections often have a major impact on what happens in home countries.

For example, during Britain’s membership of the EU, Nigel Farage failed seven times to win first-past-the-post elections to become an MP at Westminster.

Thanks to proportional representation however, he served continuously as an MEP for South East England from June 1999 to January 2020, when the UK left the EU as a result of the Brexit referendum. He made full use of the salary and expenses available to him from the EP.

Farage has the distinction of having led two different British parties to victory in the EP elections – with very serious consequences.

In 2014, UKIP beat Labour and the Conservatives, panicking David Cameron, the then-Conservative leader, into holding the EU referendum.

Five years later in 2019, when the UK had still not completed its exit from the EU, Farage led what was then called the Brexit Party to first place in the EP election. The Conservatives came fifth. Theresa May fell and Boris Johnson became prime minister with his slogan “get Brexit done”.

The UK is no longer part of the EU. We have our own general election to choose MPs, not MEPs. Farage’s latest party, Reform UK, is standing in the general election.

Across the rest of Europe, the radical right is on the rise. There is talk of Europe’s “Donald Trump moment” amid cost of living concerns.

Populist parties are widely expected to make gains according to opinion polls. If they do, the shakeout between rival blocs on the right will impact on issues including the Ukraine war, mass migration, climate change, and trade.

All matters on which whoever wins the UK election will be hoping for greater co-operation with European neighbours.

The results of the EP elections in France, Germany and Italy will greatly influence the direction in which the internal politics of those major UK allies develops.

The contest can also be seen as a battle for the soul of euro-populism – pro-Russia or pro-NATO – between its two feuding queens: Marine Le Pen of the French National Rally (NR), formerly the National Front, and Giorgia Meloni, prime minister of Italy and leader of Fratelli di Italia (FdI).

In Germany, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AFD) is on course to come second ahead of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats.

NR, led in the EP by the charismatic Jordan Bardella, is expected to win 33% of the votes in France, much more than President Emmanuel Macron’s party. And Le Pen is already the most popular candidate ahead of the presidential election in 2027 – when Macron must stand down.

Radical right parties are already in power or supporting governments in eight EU countries and are expected to come back in Austria’s election due this month.

In total populist parties may end up with more MEPs than the centre-right European Peoples Party (EPP), which has long dominated the parliament, and the struggling Socialists and Democrats.

But it is not clear that the warring factions on the right will unite to act together or work with the mainstream EPP, made up of conventional conservative and Christian Democratic parties.

They have in common ethnic nationalism, anti-wokeism, Islamophobia, hostility to migrants and net zero, and suspicion of climate change and multilateral institutions including the EU, UN and NATO. They differ on the economy – free markets and state intervention – and, above all, on Russia.

Giorgia Meloni’s FdI, Poland’s Law and Justice party and others European Conservatives and Reformists group are giving strong backing to Ukraine.

But the Identity and Freedom group, dominated by Le Pen’s FR, support a settlement handing territory to Russia, while the AfD, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Austria’s Freedom party belong openly to the Putin fan club.

The radical right will only be able to exert its full influence in the parliament if Meloni and Le Pen can reach an accommodation on such matters as Ukraine or whether von der Leyen should be given a second term as Commission president.

This seems unlikely but it has not stopped von der Leyen touring the EU seeking support and making it clear that Europe will give less priority to green policies in the next parliament than it did in the current one.

The largest grouping in the EP recommends who the Commission president should be. In practice, national leaders in the council have usually imposed their own candidate.

Increasing factionalism is preventing the EP from having the influence it would like. Ten groups have official status giving them funding and status on committees, with a further three unofficial groups.

After this election, there may be no sufficiently dominant group emerging to take up a leadership role.

The split in the mainstream right in the EU is in part a legacy of Britain’s membership of the EU. The ECR only came into existence when David Cameron defied Angela Merkel and pulled the Conservative Party out of the EPP.

Whether the UK is in or out, neither the UK nor the EU are sheltered from the winds of radical right-wing populism.

We here may be too busy to pay much attention to the world’s second-largest election. We won’t be able to ignore its consequences.

World

Under siege in Ukraine, schools go underground to keep life as normal as possible for children

Published

9 hours ago

November 17, 2024

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Under siege in Ukraine, schools go underground to keep life as normal as possible for children

If you know a teacher, or you are a teacher, you’ll understand that many in the profession consider their jobs one of the best in the world, while also acknowledging it can be one of the most stressful.

Teaching in a war zone takes it to another level on both fronts.

But imagine teaching in a war zone in say the London Underground or the Paris or New York metros?

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Well, that’s exactly what is happening in Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city – a city attacked by Russia on a constant basis.

In 2023, the authorities banned children from being taught in regular school buildings here because of the threat they were under from missile strikes.

So Kharkiv city and its education department started working on a plan.

That plan has concluded with the construction of six schools in six metro stations, teaching 4,800 children daily whose families haven’t fled the war.

Intrigued by this new educational experiment, as it’s still considered, we were told to meet at the University metro station in the centre of the city and wait to be taken to the school.

Soviet-era metro stations, and particularly the platforms, are universally grand and ornate, although Ukraine’s are slightly more modest.

Pedestrian walkways though are always crammed with florists, newspaper stands, mobile phone shops and cafes, and Kharkiv’s are no different.

What is different though is that next to the main platform entrance, an adjacent passageway has been sealed off by a white wall with three doors built into it.

We were ushered inside, past a guard and into a concourse with two desks.

In front of us, we could see a wide staircase leading to a long corridor. Above us, large, shiny silver metal tubes stretched into the distance, pumping in air from above ground.

Lining the corridor, we could see a series of white interconnecting cabins, all brightly lit, and from them, we could hear the sounds of children laughing, music, and teachers conducting class in this strange subterranean school.

Perhaps the only school in the world with one corridor.

A door to one of the classes opened, and in pairs, a class of six and seven-year-olds emerged – their teacher at the front and an assistant at the rear.

They’re heading to the bathroom for a toilet break, the staff must keep an eye on them.

If any of the children were to make it out of the school, they could easily get lost in the underground system.

The pupils are spread across seven classrooms with a mix of yellow and green desks and chairs, and walls decorated with bright pictures like rainbows, sunshine and sunflowers, to try to create a cheery atmosphere.

“At first, the children were bewildered by studying here, it felt unfamiliar to them, but interacting with each other and with their teachers helped them to adapt,” Iryna Tarasenko from Kharkiv’s education department told me.

Iryna is showing me around the school. They feel it’s their way of contributing to the war effort.

She said: “In the summer of 2023, the Defence Council didn’t permit children to study in regular school buildings, so, we had to find a solution. This is our frontline – our educational frontline.”

There are of course health concerns for both the teachers and the pupils spending so much time underground, so medical examinations are done on a regular basis.

It is an opportunity for doctors and behavioural specialists to monitor the effects of this war on them.

Dmytro Mitelyov is the neurologist on duty monitoring the children’s behaviour, checking for any signs of stress – physical and mental.

He gently asks each child how they’re feeling, and asks if they have any aches and pains.

“These are children who haven’t left Kharkiv since the war began, they live in a constant state of stress, multifaceted stress caused by a range of factors. They are exposed to things they see and hear, like alarms, explosions, and they feel it all,” Dmytro told me.

“When these children grow older, all the trauma they’ve endured during their formative years can, unfortunately, leave a lasting and serious imprint on their mental health. They haven’t had a healthy, carefree childhood – the kind where they can learn, play, and feel safe as children normally would.”

As the first group’s school day ends, children from one of Kharkiv’s most bombed districts, wrap up warm before being led to the surface to catch a school bus to their old school – which was hit by a missile.

It’s still where they meet their parents for normal pick-up.

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We jump on the bus with them for the journey past destroyed government buildings, shopping centres and restaurants.

When the air raid suddenly sounds, I look around to see how the children and teachers on this bus will react.

They barely flinch it’s so common.

“People have, to some extent, adapted,” one of the headmistresses, Olena Nikolienko, said.

“If we see missiles coming, heaven forbid, we’ll stop near a designated shelter, following our evacuation plan, and that’s where the children will go for cover.”

Remember, these children are safe underground at school, up here they are not.

During the bus ride, 10-year-old Alisa began quietly sobbing. Her teacher told me her grandfather was killed four months ago on the frontline, and since then she has been prone to tears.

Alisa’s teacher comforted her and told her everything would be ok.

It feels like everyone here has to carry their own sadness.

Everyone.

Parents, standing in the first snowfall of the season, greet the children as they get off the bus.

The kids run off the bus, and start throwing snowballs at each other, enjoying this precious moment.

It will be the last time they’re outside today.

World

China’s premier air show wows spectators – but the West won’t have liked seeing Russia’s jets

Published

1 day ago

November 16, 2024

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China's premier air show wows spectators - but the West won't have liked seeing Russia's jets

Outgoing US President Joe Biden is set to meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping today for what is likely to be his last time as US president.

The two leaders are expected to hold talks on the sidelines of a meeting of Asia-Pacific leaders in the Peruvian capital, Lima.

It comes against the backdrop of increasing tension in the US-China relationship with a potential trade war looming under a Trump presidency, several China hawks tapped for US cabinet positions and China’s growing status among global south countries as an emerging leader of an alternative world order.

This week China was focused on events in the southern city of Zhuhai.

First there was a car ramming attack at Zhuhai’s sports stadium which left 25 people dead. A shocking event that was heavily censored in China.

Less than an hour’s drive away the country was holding its premier air show.

It was a military enthusiast’s dream, and not even intermittent rain could keep the crowds of tens of thousands of people away from relishing in the roar of jets in the skies above Zhuhai.

China’s fighter jet fleet

One of the main drawcards was China’s newest stealth fighter the J-35A. It will join the country’s J-20 in service for the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF).

The J-10C was China’s aerobatics star of the show. There were daily displays of its prowess in sky-high manoeuvres and formations that impressed onlookers, leaving a streak of colours across the cloudy rain-clogged sky.

China’s military modernsiation programme is continuing apace

It boasts the largest navy in the world and the largest armed forces by active-duty personnel.

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Airforce is developing fast too.

Dr Nicole Leveringhaus, a China security expert from King’s College London, says: “China started with very little. It was devastated by wars on many fronts in the 30s and 40s. Its defence industry was depleted. In 70-plus years it’s built itself up and now we’re seeing the results.

“It’s an impressive feat to go from a bloated land-based peasant guerrilla army to what it has to today.”

Chinese pride and nationalism on display

Enjoying the air show spectacle, military fan Liu Liansong said: “I think the air show is great. It is a firm manifestation of the air force’s development from scratch. We as Chinese people feel very proud.”

The air show included massive exhibition halls of military hardware, from drones to robotics, firearms and mock missiles. Merely getting from one end of the venue to the other through densely packed crowds was a mission.

Russia in the air

The other crowd puller this week was Russia’s aerobatic air force unit, performing daily theatrics at dizzying speeds.

It is another sign of the deepening ties between China and Russia.

One Russian tourist and recreational pilot, Yulia, told Sky News: “Both sides are looking for good communication in business, aviation and in many spheres including tourism.”

The secretary of Russia’s security council and former defence minister Sergei Shoigu also visited the air show, viewing both Chinese and Russian-made jets.

In Beijing, secretary Shoigu was quoted by Russian state media as saying: “I see the most important task as countering the policy of ‘dual containment’ of Russia and China pursued by the United States and its satellites.”

The West is increasingly frustrated by China’s support of Russia. The US has sanctioned two Chinese companies, accusing them of being involved in the production of Russian aerial drones used on the battlefield.

China insists it is not supplying weapons to Russia.

One of the companies, Xiamen Limbach Aircraft Engine Co, had a small stand in one of the exhibition halls. Its representatives declined Sky News’ request for an interview.

Tariff war brewing

Despite the raw military might on display in Zhuhai, in China there is uncertainty and unease about what an impending Donald Trump presidency will mean for global trade.

President-elect Trump has threatened blanket tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese products exported to the US.

This would be a serious blow to China’s target GDP growth and comes at a time when the country’s economy faces deep-set challenges.

At the other end of the country, in Beijing analysts are weighing up the impact of possible tariffs and the Chinese government’s options to respond.

Senior Asia analyst Chim Lee, from The Economist Intelligence Unit, is not optimistic that a US-China agreement to minimise the damage can be reached.

“I think both sides have recognised that the era of making deals is passed,” Mr Lee said.

“We’re going to see China starting with some targeted measures, tariffs it feels more comfortable to impose,” he explained. “But there are also areas where China is starting to be a bit more aggressive.”

This action could include export controls on China’s production of critical minerals and retaliatory tariffs on US agriculture exports.

Trade competition, military posturing and complicated geo-political alliances have set the stage for a challenging next phase in US-China relations.

World

Pictures show moment Israeli bomb exploded at Beirut apartment block

Published

2 days ago

November 15, 2024

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Pictures show moment Israeli bomb exploded at Beirut apartment block

New pictures show the moment of impact as an Israeli missile hit a Beirut apartment block and exploded.

The block was one of five buildings destroyed by airstrikes on Friday alone.

Israel launched airstrikes in the southern suburbs of Beirut in a fourth consecutive day of intense attacks.

There were no immediate reports of casualties.

An Associated Press photographer captured a sequence of images showing an Israeli bomb approaching and hitting a multi-storey apartment building in Beirut’s Tayouneh area.

Richard Weir, a senior crisis, conflict and arms researcher at Human Rights Watch, reviewed the close-up photos to determine what type of weapon was used.

“The bomb and components visible in the photographs, including the strake, wire harness cover, and tail fin section, are consistent with a Mk-84 series 2,000-pound class general purpose bomb equipped with Boeing’s joint directed attack munition tail kit,” he told AP.

Deadly strikes as bombardment stepped up

Israel stepped up its bombardment this week – an escalation that has coincided with signs of movement in US-led diplomacy towards a ceasefire.

The Israeli military said its fighter jets attacked munitions warehouses, a headquarters and other Hezbollah infrastructure. It issued a warning on social media identifying buildings ahead of the strikes.

Meanwhile, an Israeli airstrike killed five members of the same family in a home in Ain Qana in the southern province of Nabatiyeh, Lebanon’s state media said.

The report said a mother, father and their three children were killed but didn’t provide their ages.

Three other Israeli strikes killed six people and wounded 32 in different parts of Tyre province on Friday, also in south Lebanon, the report said.

Video footage also showed a building being struck and turning into a cloud of rubble and debris that billowed into Horsh Beirut, the city’s main park.

More than 3,200 people have been killed in Lebanon during 13 months of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah – most of them since mid-September.

About 27% of those killed were women and children, according to Lebanon’s health ministry.

Israel dramatically escalated its bombardment of Lebanon from September, vowing to cripple Hezbollah and end its barrages in Israel.

Friday’s strikes come as Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister has asked Iran to help secure a ceasefire in the war between Israel and Hezbollah.

The prime minister appeared to urge Ali Larijani, a top adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, to convince the militant group to agree to a deal that could require it to pull back from the Israel-Lebanon border.

Iran is a main backer of Hezbollah and for decades has been funding and arming the Lebanese militant group.

On Thursday, Eli Cohen, Israel’s energy minister and a member of its security cabinet, said that prospects for a ceasefire with Lebanon were the most promising since the conflict began.

The Washington Post reported Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was rushing to advance a Lebanon ceasefire to deliver an early foreign policy win to his ally, US President-elect Donald Trump.