Decision time for Europe. By the end of this weekend, there will be a new shape to the European Parliament and a new velocity to the continent’s politics.
Voting in the European elections actually started on Thursday, when polling stations opened in the Netherlands, but it comes to an end on Sunday and we will start to see how parliament has been reformed.
For Europe, this could be a crucial election. Firstly, it will paint a picture of the new parliament, deciding how much power and influence remains with the familiar parties from the centre-right and centre-left, and how much moves to populist, nationalist and far-right politicians.
We’re likely to see strong performances from a range of these self-styled anti-establishment groups.
Rassemblement National, the party shaped by Marine Le Pen and now led by the youthful Jordan Bardella, will probably win the poll in France, while the very far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) could be the second biggest party in Germany.
Image: Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella at a National Rally event ahead of the elections. Pic: AP
Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, a party that has its roots in fascism, will probably win in that country, while far-right parties are hoping to prosper in nations as varied as Belgium, Latvia, the Netherlands and Denmark.
In Hungary, Viktor Orban and his allies continue to decry the EU for being too powerful and expansive.
These radical parties won’t win the election – it’s very likely parties from the political middle-ground of centre-right or centre-left will get the most votes.
But their dominant position is likely to be eroded.
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So, the second thing about this election is that it will tell a story of the priorities of Europe’s people.
The past couple of years have seen a steady decline in the power and status of many mainstream politicians, and a hunt for alternative leaders.
Image: Giorgia Meloni at a rally for the European Parliament elections. Pic: AP
Very few of these people want to leave the EU – they want to change it from within.
And, if they do well in this election, this could be the point when those muscles are flexed.
Already there are questions about whether Bardella and Meloni will work together – and that is certainly a possibility.
They share similar policies in some areas, after all.
But there is a stumbling block to that. MEPs from different countries come together in parliament as part of different trans-national groups – effectively cross-border parties.
Bardella’s RN party is allied to the far-right ID political group. Meloni is part of the slightly more central ECR. On paper, that might not look important – in reality, it could be a profound difference.
Because these political groupings are seen as a big deal within European Parliament and Meloni, who has repeatedly tried to distance herself from extremism, won’t want to be part of the ID group.
Instead, Meloni seems much more likely to strike a deal with the sitting president, Ursula von der Leyen, than she is to go into partnership with Bardella.
Image: Ursula von der Leyen. Pic: AP
But there’s another layer to this. Von der Leyen’s future as president depends on these new MEPs endorsing her for a second term, and that’s not guaranteed.
The more members there are from the far-right and far-left, the fewer friends she will have, while frosty relations between France and Germany have seen French MEPs threatening to block her.
The politicking will not stop once the votes have been counted.
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This is the second biggest election in the world, behind only India’s general election, with more than 370 million people eligible to cast a vote, spread through the European Union’s 27 member states.
Their votes will decide the look of a parliament containing more than 700 members (MEPs), charged with making laws that apply to the whole union.
Parliament also has to approve the EU’s budget, which currently stands at around £160bn, and also greenlight the nomination of the EU’s leading administrators – including the hugely powerful president of the European Commission.
Global financial markets gave a clear vote of no-confidence in President Trump’s economic policy.
The damage it will do is obvious: costs for companies will rise, hitting their earnings.
The consequences will ripple throughout the global economy, with economists now raising their expectations for a recession, not only in the US, but across the world.
The court ruled to uphold the impeachment saying the conservative leader “violated his duty as commander-in-chief by mobilising troops” when he declared martial law.
The president was also said to have taken actions “beyond the powers provided in the constitution”.
Image: Demonstrators stayed overnight near the constitutional court. Pic: AP
Supporters and opponents of the president gathered in their thousands in central Seoul as they awaited the ruling.
The 64-year-old shocked MPs, the public and international allies in early December when he declared martial law, meaning all existing laws regarding civilians were suspended in place of military law.
Image: The court was under heavy police security guard ahead of the announcement. Pic: AP
After suddenly declaring martial law, Mr Yoon sent hundreds of soldiers and police officers to the National Assembly.
He has argued that he sought to maintain order, but some senior military and police officers sent there have told hearings and investigators that Mr Yoon ordered them to drag out politicians to prevent an assembly vote on his decree.
His presidential powers were suspended when the opposition-dominated assembly voted to impeach him on 14 December, accusing him of rebellion.
The unanimous verdict to uphold parliament’s impeachment and remove Mr Yoon from office required the support of at least six of the court’s eight justices.
South Korea must hold a national election within two months to find a new leader.
Lee Jae-myung, leader of the main liberal opposition Democratic Party, is the early favourite to become the country’s next president, according to surveys.
While the UK’s FTSE 100 closed down 1.55% and the continent’s STOXX Europe 600 index was down 2.67% as of 5.30pm, it was American traders who were hit the most.
All three of the US’s major markets opened to sharp losses on Thursday morning.
Image: The S&P 500 is set for its worst day of trading since the COVID-19 pandemic. File pic: AP
By 8.30pm UK time (3.30pm EST), The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 3.7%, the S&P 500 opened with a drop of 4.4%, and the Nasdaq composite was down 5.6%.
Compared to their values when Donald Trump was inaugurated, the three markets were down around 5.6%, 8.7% and 14.4%, respectively, according to LSEG.
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Worst one-day losses since COVID
As Wall Street trading ended at 9pm in the UK, two indexes had suffered their worst one-day losses since the COVID-19 pandemic.
The S&P 500 fell 4.85%, the Nasdaq dropped 6%, and the Dow Jones fell 4%.
It marks Nasdaq’s biggest daily percentage drop since March 2020 at the start of COVID, and the largest drop for the Dow Jones since June 2020.
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5:07
The latest numbers on tariffs
‘Trust in President Trump’
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told CNN earlier in the day that Mr Trump was “doubling down on his proven economic formula from his first term”.
“To anyone on Wall Street this morning, I would say trust in President Trump,” she told the broadcaster, adding: “This is indeed a national emergency… and it’s about time we have a president who actually does something about it.”
Later, the US president told reporters as he left the White House that “I think it’s going very well,” adding: “The markets are going to boom, the stock is going to boom, the country is going to boom.”
He later said on Air Force One that the UK is “happy” with its tariff – the lowest possible levy of 10% – and added he would be open to negotiations if other countries “offer something phenomenal”.
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3:27
How is the world reacting to Trump’s tariffs?
Economist warns of ‘spiral of doom’
The turbulence in the markets from Mr Trump’s tariffs “just left everybody in shock”, Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston, told Reuters.
He added that the economy could go into recession as a result, saying that “a lot of the pain, will probably most acutely be felt in the US and that certainly would weigh on broader global growth as well”.
Meanwhile, chief investment officer at St James’s Place Justin Onuekwusi said that international retaliation is likely, even as “it’s clear countries will think about how to retaliate in a politically astute way”.
He warned: “Significant retaliation could lead to a tariff ‘spiral of doom’ that could be the growth shock that drags us into recession.”
It comes as the UK government published a long list of US products that could be subject to reciprocal tariffs – including golf clubs and golf balls.
Running to more than 400 pages, the list is part of a four-week-long consultation with British businesses and suggests whiskey, jeans, livestock, and chemical components.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said on Thursday that the US president had launched a “new era” for global trade and that the UK will respond with “cool and calm heads”.
It also comes as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a 25% tariff on all American-imported vehicles that are not compliant with the US-Mexico-Canada trade deal.
He added: “The 80-year period when the United States embraced the mantle of global economic leadership, when it forged alliances rooted in trust and mutual respect and championed the free and open exchange of goods and services, is over. This is a tragedy.”