Europe decides – how will election shape continent’s changing politics?
Decision time for Europe. By the end of this weekend, there will be a new shape to the European Parliament and a new velocity to the continent’s politics.
Voting in the European elections actually started on Thursday, when polling stations opened in the Netherlands, but it comes to an end on Sunday and we will start to see how parliament has been reformed.
For Europe, this could be a crucial election. Firstly, it will paint a picture of the new parliament, deciding how much power and influence remains with the familiar parties from the centre-right and centre-left, and how much moves to populist, nationalist and far-right politicians.
We’re likely to see strong performances from a range of these self-styled anti-establishment groups.
Rassemblement National, the party shaped by Marine Le Pen and now led by the youthful Jordan Bardella, will probably win the poll in France, while the very far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) could be the second biggest party in Germany.
Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella at a National Rally event ahead of the elections. Pic: AP
Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, a party that has its roots in fascism, will probably win in that country, while far-right parties are hoping to prosper in nations as varied as Belgium, Latvia, the Netherlands and Denmark.
In Hungary, Viktor Orban and his allies continue to decry the EU for being too powerful and expansive.
These radical parties won’t win the election – it’s very likely parties from the political middle-ground of centre-right or centre-left will get the most votes.
But their dominant position is likely to be eroded.
So, the second thing about this election is that it will tell a story of the priorities of Europe’s people.
The past couple of years have seen a steady decline in the power and status of many mainstream politicians, and a hunt for alternative leaders.
Giorgia Meloni at a rally for the European Parliament elections. Pic: AP
Very few of these people want to leave the EU – they want to change it from within.
And, if they do well in this election, this could be the point when those muscles are flexed.
Already there are questions about whether Bardella and Meloni will work together – and that is certainly a possibility.
They share similar policies in some areas, after all.
But there is a stumbling block to that. MEPs from different countries come together in parliament as part of different trans-national groups – effectively cross-border parties.
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Pic: AP
Bardella’s RN party is allied to the far-right ID political group. Meloni is part of the slightly more central ECR. On paper, that might not look important – in reality, it could be a profound difference.
Because these political groupings are seen as a big deal within European Parliament and Meloni, who has repeatedly tried to distance herself from extremism, won’t want to be part of the ID group.
Instead, Meloni seems much more likely to strike a deal with the sitting president, Ursula von der Leyen, than she is to go into partnership with Bardella.
Ursula von der Leyen. Pic: AP
But there’s another layer to this. Von der Leyen’s future as president depends on these new MEPs endorsing her for a second term, and that’s not guaranteed.
The more members there are from the far-right and far-left, the fewer friends she will have, while frosty relations between France and Germany have seen French MEPs threatening to block her.
The politicking will not stop once the votes have been counted.
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
This is the second biggest election in the world, behind only India’s general election, with more than 370 million people eligible to cast a vote, spread through the European Union’s 27 member states.
Their votes will decide the look of a parliament containing more than 700 members (MEPs), charged with making laws that apply to the whole union.
Parliament also has to approve the EU’s budget, which currently stands at around £160bn, and also greenlight the nomination of the EU’s leading administrators – including the hugely powerful president of the European Commission.
World
‘Widespread sexual violence’ took place during Hamas’s 7 October attacks, report by Israeli experts says
A newly released report led by Israeli legal and gender experts presents detailed evidence alleging “widespread and systematic” sexual violence during the Hamas-led terror attack on 7 October.
Warning: This story contains descriptions of rape and sexual violence
The findings, published by the Dinah Project, argue that these acts amount to conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV), and assert that “Hamas used sexual violence as a tactical weapon of war”.
The report draws on 18 months of investigation and is based on survivor testimonies, eyewitness accounts, and interviews with first responders, morgue personnel and healthcare professionals.
According to the Dinah Project, the documented patterns – such as forced nudity, gang rapes, genital mutilation, and threats of forced marriage – indicate a deliberate and coordinated use of sexual violence by Hamas operatives during the attack.
Reported incidents span at least six locations, including the Nova music festival, and several kibbutzim in southern Israel.
A destroyed car near the police station in Sderot, following the 7 October attacks by Hamas. Pic: AP
One section of the report describes victims “found fully or partially naked from the waist down, with their hands tied behind their backs and/or to structures such as trees and poles, and shot”.
At the Nova music festival and surrounding areas, the investigators found “reasonable grounds to believe” that multiple women were raped or gang-raped before being killed.
The report’s findings are consistent with earlier investigations by the United Nations and the International Criminal Court (ICC).
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The UN’s Special Representative on Sexual Violence in Conflict previously concluded that there were “reasonable grounds to believe” CRSV took place during the attack.
Destroyed vehicles near the grounds of the Supernova electronic music festival. Pic: AP
Significantly, the Dinah Project urges the international community to officially recognise the use of sexual violence by Hamas as a deliberate strategy of war and calls on the United Nations to add Hamas to its list of parties responsible for conflict-related sexual violence.
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
The nature and scale of sexual violence on 7 October have been a subject of intense controversy, with some accusing parties of weaponising the narrative for political ends.
This report seeks to confront what its authors call “denial, misinformation, and global silence,” and to provide justice for the victims.
Hamas has denied that its fighters have used sexual violence and mistreated female hostages.
World
Israeli soldiers ‘psychologically broken’ after ‘confronting the reality’ in Gaza, UN expert says
A UN expert has said some young soldiers in the Israeli Defence Forces are being left “psychologically broken” after “confront[ing] the reality among the rubble” when serving in Gaza.
Francesca Albanese, the UN Human Rights Council’s special rapporteur on the occupied Palestinian territories, was responding to a Sky News interview with an Israeli solider who described arbitrary killing of civilians in Gaza.
She told The World with Yalda Hakim that “many” of the young people fighting in Gaza are “haunted by what they have seen, what they have done”.
“It doesn’t make sense,” Ms Albanese said. “This is not a war, this is an assault against civilians and this is producing a fracture in many of them.
“As that soldier’s testimony reveals, especially the youngest among the soldiers have been convinced this is a form of patriotism, of defending Israel and Israeli society against this opaque but very hard felt enemy, which is Hamas.
“But the thing is that they’ve come to confront the reality among the rubble of Gaza.”
An Israeli soldier directs a tank near the border with the Gaza Strip, in southern Israel. Pic: AP
Being in Gaza is “probably this is the first time the Israeli soldiers are awakening to this,” she added. “And they don’t make sense of this because their attachment to being part of the IDF, which is embedded in their national ideology, is too strong.
“This is why they are psychologically broken.”
Jonathan Conricus, a former IDF spokesman who is now a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, said he believes the Sky News interview with the former IDF solider “reflects one part of how ugly, difficult and horrible fighting in a densely populated, urban terrain is”.
“I think [the ex-soldier] is reflecting on how difficult it is to fight in such an area and what the challenges are on the battlefield,” he said.
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Ex-IDF spokesperson: ‘No distinction between military and civilians’
‘An economy of genocide’
Ms Albanese, one of dozens of independent UN-mandated experts, also said her most recent report for the human rights council has identified “an economy of genocide” in Israel.
The system, she told Hakim, is made up of more than 60 private sector companies “that have become enmeshed in the economy of occupation […] that have Israel displace the Palestinians and replace them with settlers, settlements and infrastructure Israel runs.”
Israel has rejected allegations of genocide in Gaza, citing its right to defend itself after Hamas’s attack on 7 October 2023.
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‘Israel has shifted towards economy of genocide’
The companies named in Ms Albanese’s report are in, but not limited to, the financial sector, big tech and the military industry.
“These companies can be held responsible for being directed linked to, or contributing, or causing human rights impacts,” she said. “We’re not talking of human rights violations, we are talking of crimes.”
“Some of the companies have engaged in good faith, others have not,” Ms Albanese said.
Read more:
Israeli soldier describes arbitrary killing of civilians in Gaza
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Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
The companies she has named include American technology giant Palantir, which has issued a statement to Sky News.
It said it is “not true” that Palantir “is the (or a) developer of the ‘Gospel’ – the AI-assisted targeting software allegedly used by the IDF in Gaza, and that we are involved with the ‘Lavender’ database used by the IDF for targeting cross-referencing”.
“Both capabilities are independent of and pre-ate Palantir’s announced partnership with the Israeli Defence Ministry,” the statement added.
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