Europe decides – how will election shape continent’s changing politics?
Decision time for Europe. By the end of this weekend, there will be a new shape to the European Parliament and a new velocity to the continent’s politics.
Voting in the European elections actually started on Thursday, when polling stations opened in the Netherlands, but it comes to an end on Sunday and we will start to see how parliament has been reformed.
For Europe, this could be a crucial election. Firstly, it will paint a picture of the new parliament, deciding how much power and influence remains with the familiar parties from the centre-right and centre-left, and how much moves to populist, nationalist and far-right politicians.
We’re likely to see strong performances from a range of these self-styled anti-establishment groups.
Rassemblement National, the party shaped by Marine Le Pen and now led by the youthful Jordan Bardella, will probably win the poll in France, while the very far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) could be the second biggest party in Germany.
Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella at a National Rally event ahead of the elections. Pic: AP
Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, a party that has its roots in fascism, will probably win in that country, while far-right parties are hoping to prosper in nations as varied as Belgium, Latvia, the Netherlands and Denmark.
In Hungary, Viktor Orban and his allies continue to decry the EU for being too powerful and expansive.
These radical parties won’t win the election – it’s very likely parties from the political middle-ground of centre-right or centre-left will get the most votes.
But their dominant position is likely to be eroded.
So, the second thing about this election is that it will tell a story of the priorities of Europe’s people.
The past couple of years have seen a steady decline in the power and status of many mainstream politicians, and a hunt for alternative leaders.
Giorgia Meloni at a rally for the European Parliament elections. Pic: AP
Very few of these people want to leave the EU – they want to change it from within.
And, if they do well in this election, this could be the point when those muscles are flexed.
Already there are questions about whether Bardella and Meloni will work together – and that is certainly a possibility.
They share similar policies in some areas, after all.
But there is a stumbling block to that. MEPs from different countries come together in parliament as part of different trans-national groups – effectively cross-border parties.
Read more:
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Pic: AP
Bardella’s RN party is allied to the far-right ID political group. Meloni is part of the slightly more central ECR. On paper, that might not look important – in reality, it could be a profound difference.
Because these political groupings are seen as a big deal within European Parliament and Meloni, who has repeatedly tried to distance herself from extremism, won’t want to be part of the ID group.
Instead, Meloni seems much more likely to strike a deal with the sitting president, Ursula von der Leyen, than she is to go into partnership with Bardella.
Ursula von der Leyen. Pic: AP
But there’s another layer to this. Von der Leyen’s future as president depends on these new MEPs endorsing her for a second term, and that’s not guaranteed.
The more members there are from the far-right and far-left, the fewer friends she will have, while frosty relations between France and Germany have seen French MEPs threatening to block her.
The politicking will not stop once the votes have been counted.
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This is the second biggest election in the world, behind only India’s general election, with more than 370 million people eligible to cast a vote, spread through the European Union’s 27 member states.
Their votes will decide the look of a parliament containing more than 700 members (MEPs), charged with making laws that apply to the whole union.
Parliament also has to approve the EU’s budget, which currently stands at around £160bn, and also greenlight the nomination of the EU’s leading administrators – including the hugely powerful president of the European Commission.
World
Trump criticises Putin after potentially ‘historic’ meeting with Zelenskyy before Pope’s funeral
Donald Trump has criticised Vladimir Putin and suggested a shift in his stance towards the Russian president after a meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy before the Pope’s funeral.
The Ukrainian president said the one-on-one talks could prove to be “historic” after pictures showed him sitting opposite Mr Trump, around two feet apart, in the large marble hall inside St Peter’s Basilica.
The US president said he doubted his Russian counterpart’s willingness to end the war after leaving Rome after the funeral of Pope Francis at the Vatican.
Follow live updates: 200,000 mourn at Vatican
In a post on his Truth Social platform, he said “there was no reason” for the Russian president “to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns, over the last few days”.
The two leaders held talks before attending the Pope’s funeral
He added: “It makes me think that maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently, through ‘Banking’ or ‘Secondary Sanctions?’ Too many people are dying!!!”
The meeting between the US and Ukrainian leaders was their first face-to-face encounter since a very public row in the Oval Office in February.
Mr Zelenskyy said he had a good meeting with Mr Trump in which they talked about the defence of the Ukrainian people, a full and unconditional ceasefire, and a durable and lasting peace that would prevent the war restarting.
Other images released by the Ukrainian president’s office show Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron were present for part of the talks, which were described as “positive” by the French presidency.
Mr Zelenskyy‘s spokesman said the meeting lasted for around 15 minutes and he and Mr Trump had agreed to hold further discussions later on Saturday.
The world leaders shared a moment before the service
Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet in the Basilica
But the US president left Rome for Washington on Air Force One soon after the funeral without any other talks having taken place.
The Ukrainian president’s office said there was no second meeting in Rome because of the tight schedule of both leaders, although he had separate discussions with Mr Starmer and Mr Macron.
The French president said in a post on X “Ukraine is ready for an unconditional ceasefire” and that a so-called coalition of the willing, led by the UK and France, would continue working to achieve a lasting peace.
There was applause from some of the other world leaders in attendance at the Vatican when Mr Zelenskyy walked out of St Peter’s Basilica after stopping in front of the pontiff’s coffin to pay his respects.
Donald Trump and the Ukrainian president met for the first time since their Oval Office row. Pic: Reuters
Sir Tony Brenton, the former British ambassador to Russia, said the event presents diplomatic opportunities, including the “biggest possible meeting” between Mr Trump and the Ukrainian leader.
He told Sky News it could mark “an important step” in starting the peace process between Russia and Ukraine.
Professor Father Francesco Giordano told Sky News the meeting is being called “Pope Francis’s miracle” by members of the clergy, adding: “There’s so many things that happened today – it was just overwhelming.”
The bilateral meeting comes after Mr Trump’s peace negotiator Steve Witkoff held talks with Mr Putin at the Kremlin.
They discussed “the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine”, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said.
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Russia and Ukraine have not held direct talks since the early weeks of the war, which began in February 2022.
Mr Trump has claimed a deal to end the war is “very close” and has urged Mr Zelenskyy to “get it done” in a post on his Truth Social platform.
He has previously warned both sides his administration would walk away from its efforts to achieve a peace if the two sides do not agree a deal soon.
Meanwhile, the Polish armed forces said a Russian military helicopter violated its airspace over the Baltic Sea on Friday evening.
“The nature of the incident indicates that Russia is testing the readiness of our air defence systems,” they said in a post on X.
On an extraordinary day, remarkable pictures on the margins that capture what may be a turning point for the world.
In a corner of St Peter’s Basilica before the funeral of Pope Francis, the leaders of America and Ukraine sit facing each other in two solitary chairs.
They look like confessor and sinner except we cannot tell which one is which.
Leaning forward hands together in their laps, Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy stare at each other in one photo.
In another, the Ukrainian president seems to be remonstrating with the US president. This is their first encounter since their infamous bust-up in the Oval Office.
The two leaders held talks before attending the Pope’s funeral
Other pictures show the moment their French and British counterparts introduced the two men. There is a palpable sense of nervousness in the way the leaders engage.
We do not know what the two presidents said in their brief meeting.
But in the mind of the Ukrainian leader will be the knowledge President Trump has this week said America will reward Russia for its unprovoked brutal invasion of his country, under any peace deal.
Mr Trump has presented Ukraine and Russia with a proposal and ultimatum so one-sided it could have been written in the Kremlin.
Kyiv must surrender the land Russia has taken by force, Crimea forever, the rest at least for now. And it must submit to an act of extortion, a proposed deal that would hand over half its mineral wealth effectively to America.
The world leaders shared a moment before the service
Afterwards, Zelenskyy said it had been a good meeting that could turn out to be historic “if we reach results together”.
They had talked, he said, about the defence of Ukraine, a full and unconditional ceasefire and a durable and lasting peace that will prevent a war restarting.
The Trump peace proposal includes only unspecified security guarantees for Ukraine from countries that do not include the US. It rules out any membership of Ukraine.
Ukraine’s allies are watching closely to see if Mr Trump will apply any pressure on Vladimir Putin, let alone punish him for recent bloody attacks on Ukraine.
Or will he simply walk away if the proposal fails, blaming Ukrainian intransigence, however outrageously, before moving onto a rapprochement with Moscow.
If he does, America’s role as guarantor of international security will be seen effectively as over.
This could be the week we see the world order as we have known it since the end of the Second World War buried, as well as a pope.
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