Emmanuel Macron’s huge gamble could lead to one of his most hated rivals being handed great power
In Europe, where modern politics sometimes moves slowly, shocks don’t come much bigger than this one. Emmanuel Macron dissolving parliament and calling elections, leaving one huge question hanging in the air – what happens next?
Macron is a man used to success. He started a political party in his 30s, won the presidency, and then won it again. When that’s your track record, defeat must feel savagely painful.
But this is an unpredictable – and perhaps impetuous – path that he’s taken. Because there’s a chance that it could lead to one of his most hated rivals being handed great power.
Macron clearly hopes that, as he sees it, France will come to its senses and turn its back on what he described as “extreme right” politicians.
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Macron’s shock snap election call
It’s hard to imagine why the nation would vote profoundly differently in an election in three weeks’ time, but that’s Macron’s hope.
But what if they don’t? What if the Rassemblement National (RN) do just as well, leading the way? Already the suggestion is that if the party’s European success is replicated at a domestic level, then that would compel Macron to offer the RN a place at the very top of the French cabinet – the role of prime minister.
Jordan Bardella, president of the French far-right National Rally. Pic: Reuters
Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella could soon take a key role within France’s government. Pic: Reuters
Is that possible? Could Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella really be on their way to the second-biggest job in France?
It’s a question I put to one of Britain’s most experienced observers of European politics, Richard Corbett – an MEP for nearly two decades who ended up leading the Labour group in the European Parliament.
“It’s possible, yes,” he said. “I wonder if Macron thinks that, if the RN are bound to do well, then he’d rather have Prime Minster Le Pen serving under him while he is still president.
“That way, when we get the next presidential election in three years’ time, the gloss will have come off her. She will have made mistakes, and people will have seen her make mistakes.”
Pic: Reuters
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But Le Pen is nothing if not politically astute. If the job is offered, she might yet decline and instead give it to Bardella, the 28-year-old who she has fast-tracked to being party president.
That way, she could help guide Bardella from behind the scenes while leaving herself unsullied by any political failure ahead of her next run for the presidency.
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Of course, if she won that – if the RN wave was still rolling – then the consequences would be enormous. The French president has huge power and enormous influence.
On economics, migration, the role of the EU, climate laws and a dozen other fundamental things, she would bring explosive change.
That is all for the future. Right now, France has a huge moment in front of it.
This is an election to the National Assembly, but it also feels like a referendum on Macron – once so popular, now trailed by antipathy. It’s a vote he called, and it’s one he probably won’t win. A huge, huge gamble.
Israel has approved a plan to capture all of the Gaza Strip and remain there for an unspecified length of time, Israeli officials say.
According to Reuters, the plan includes distributing aid, though supplies will not be let in yet.
The Israeli official told the agency that the newly approved offensive plan would move Gaza’s civilian population southward and keep humanitarian aid from falling into Hamas’s hands.
On Sunday, the United Nations rejected what it said was a new plan for aid to be distributed in what it described as Israeli hubs.
Israeli cabinet ministers approved plans for the new offensive on Monday morning, hours after it was announced that tens of thousands of reserve soldiers are being called up.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has so far failed to achieve his goal of destroying Hamas or returning all the hostages, despite more than a year of brutal war in Gaza.
Palestinian children struggle to get donated food at a community kitchen in Khan Younis, Gaza. Pic: AP
Officials say the plan will help with these war aims but it would also push hundreds of thousands of Palestinians to southern Gaza, exacerbating an already dire humanitarian crisis.
They said the plan included the “capturing of the strip and the holding of territories”.
It would also try to prevent Hamas from distributing humanitarian aid, which Israel says strengthens the group’s rule in Gaza.
The UN rejected the plan, saying it would leave large parts of the population, including the most vulnerable, without supplies.
It said it “appears designed to reinforce control over life-sustaining items as a pressure tactic – as part of a military strategy”.
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More than 52,000 Palestinians have been killed since the IDF launched its ground offensive in the densely-populated territory, according to the Hamas-run health ministry.
It followed the deadly Hamas attacks on Israel, which killed 1,200 people and saw around 250 people taken hostage.
A fragile ceasefire that saw a pause in the fighting and the exchange of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners collapsed earlier this year.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to retaliate against the Houthis and their Iranian “masters” after the group launched a missile attack on the country’s main international airport.
A missile fired by the group from Yemen landed near Ben Gurion Airport, causing panic among passengers in the terminal building.
“Attacks by the Houthis emanate from Iran,” Mr Netanyahu wrote on X. “Israel will respond to the Houthi attack against our main airport AND, at a time and place of our choosing, to their Iranian terror masters.”
Israeli police officers investigate the missile crater. Pic: Reuters
The missile impact left a plume of smoke and briefly halted flights and commuter traffic at the airport. Some international carriers have cancelled flights to and from Tel Aviv for several days.
Four people were lightly wounded, paramedic service Magen David Adom said.
Air raid sirens went off across Israel and footage showed passengers yelling and rushing for cover.
The attack came hours before senior Israeli cabinet ministers were set to vote on whether to intensify the country’s military operations in the Gaza Strip, and as the army began calling up thousands of reserves in anticipation of a wider operation in the enclave.
Houthi military spokesperson Brigadier General Yahya Saree said the group fired a hypersonic ballistic missile at the airport.
Iran’s defence minister later told a state TV broadcaster that if the country was attacked by the US or Israel, it would target their bases, interests and forces where necessary.
Israel’s military said several attempts to intercept the missile were unsuccessful.
Air, road and rail traffic were halted after the attack, police said, though it resumed around an hour later.
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Yemen’s Houthis have been firing missiles at Israel since its war with Hamas in Gaza began on 7 October 2023, and while most have been intercepted, some have penetrated the country’s missile defence systems and caused damage.
Israel has previously struck the group in Yemen in retaliation and the US and UK have also launched strikes after the Houthis began attacking international shipping, saying it was in solidarity with Palestinians over Israel’s war with Hamas.
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