French election: Macron is taking a huge gamble – what happens if it doesn’t pay off?

Published

1 year ago

June 10, 2024

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In Europe, where modern politics sometimes moves slowly, shocks don’t come much bigger than this one. Emmanuel Macron dissolving parliament and calling elections, leaving one huge question hanging in the air – what happens next?

Macron is a man used to success. He started a political party in his 30s, won the presidency, and then won it again. When that’s your track record, defeat must feel savagely painful.

But this is an unpredictable – and perhaps impetuous – path that he’s taken. Because there’s a chance that it could lead to one of his most hated rivals being handed great power.

Macron clearly hopes that, as he sees it, France will come to its senses and turn its back on what he described as “extreme right” politicians.

It’s hard to imagine why the nation would vote profoundly differently in an election in three weeks’ time, but that’s Macron’s hope.

But what if they don’t? What if the Rassemblement National (RN) do just as well, leading the way? Already the suggestion is that if the party’s European success is replicated at a domestic level, then that would compel Macron to offer the RN a place at the very top of the French cabinet – the role of prime minister.

Is that possible? Could Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella really be on their way to the second-biggest job in France?

It’s a question I put to one of Britain’s most experienced observers of European politics, Richard Corbett – an MEP for nearly two decades who ended up leading the Labour group in the European Parliament.

“It’s possible, yes,” he said. “I wonder if Macron thinks that, if the RN are bound to do well, then he’d rather have Prime Minster Le Pen serving under him while he is still president.

“That way, when we get the next presidential election in three years’ time, the gloss will have come off her. She will have made mistakes, and people will have seen her make mistakes.”

But Le Pen is nothing if not politically astute. If the job is offered, she might yet decline and instead give it to Bardella, the 28-year-old who she has fast-tracked to being party president.

That way, she could help guide Bardella from behind the scenes while leaving herself unsullied by any political failure ahead of her next run for the presidency.

Of course, if she won that – if the RN wave was still rolling – then the consequences would be enormous. The French president has huge power and enormous influence.

On economics, migration, the role of the EU, climate laws and a dozen other fundamental things, she would bring explosive change.

That is all for the future. Right now, France has a huge moment in front of it.

This is an election to the National Assembly, but it also feels like a referendum on Macron – once so popular, now trailed by antipathy. It’s a vote he called, and it’s one he probably won’t win. A huge, huge gamble.

World

Trump’s USAID cuts could lead to 14 million deaths, report warns

Published

9 hours ago

July 1, 2025

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Trump's USAID cuts could lead to 14 million deaths, report warns

Around 14 million people could die across the world over the next five years because of cuts to the US Agency for International Development (USAID), researchers have warned.

Children under five are expected to make up around a third (4.5 million) of the mortalities, according to a study published in The Lancet medical journal.

Estimates showed that “unless the abrupt funding cuts announced and implemented in the first half of 2025 are reversed, a staggering number of avoidable deaths could occur by 2030”.

“Beyond causing millions of avoidable deaths – particularly among the most vulnerable – these cuts risk reversing decades of progress in health and socioeconomic development in LMICs [low and middle-income countries],” the report said.

USAID programmes have prevented the deaths of more than 91 million people, around a third of them among children, the study suggests.

The agency’s work has been linked to a 65% fall in deaths from HIV/AIDS, or 25.5 million people.

Eight million deaths from malaria, more than half the total, around 11 million from diarrheal diseases and nearly five million from tuberculosis (TB), have also been prevented.

USAID has been vital in improving global health, “especially in LMICs, particularly African nations,” according to the report.

Established in 1961, the agency was tasked with providing humanitarian assistance and helping economic growth in developing countries, especially those deemed strategic to Washington.

But the Trump administration has made little secret of its antipathy towards the agency, which became an early victim of cuts carried out by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) – formerly led by Elon Musk – in what the US government said was part of a broader plan to remove wasteful spending.

In March, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said more than 80% of USAID schemes had been closed following a six-week review, leaving around 1,000 active.

The US is the world’s largest humanitarian aid donor, providing around $61bn (£44bn) in foreign assistance last year, according to government data, or at least 38% of the total, and USAID is the world’s leading donor for humanitarian and development aid, the report said.

Between 2017 and 2020, the agency responded to more than 240 natural disasters and crises worldwide – and in 2016 it sent food assistance to more than 53 million people across 47 countries.

The study assessed all-age and all-cause mortality rates in 133 countries and territories, including all those classified as low and middle-income, supported by USAID from 2001 to 2021.

World

Thai PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra suspended amid outrage over leaked phone call

Published

11 hours ago

July 1, 2025

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Thai PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra suspended amid outrage over leaked phone call

Thailand’s prime minister has been suspended after a leaked phone call with a senior Cambodian politician caused outrage.

An ethics investigation into Paetongtarn Shinawatra is under way and she could end up being dismissed.

The country’s constitutional court took up a petition from 36 senators, who claimed dishonesty and a breach of ethical standards, and voted 7 to 2 to suspend her.

The prime minister’s call with Cambodia’s former leader, Hun Sen, sparked public protests after she tried to appease him and criticised a Thai army commander – a taboo move in a country where the military is extremely influential.

Ms Shinawatra was trying to defuse mounting tensions at the border – which in May resulted in the death of one Cambodian soldier.

Thousands of conservative, nationalist protesters held a demo in Bangkok on Saturday to urge her to step down.

Her party is clinging on to power after another group withdrew from their alliance a few weeks ago over the phone call. Calls for a no-confidence vote are likely.

Deputy prime minister Suriya Juangroongruangkit will take over temporarily while the court looks into the case.

The 38-year-old prime minister – Thailand‘s youngest ever leader – has 15 days to respond to the probe. She has apologised and said her approach in the call was a negotiating tactic.

The popularity of her government has slumped recently, with an opinion poll showing an approval rating of 9.2%, down from 30.9% in March.

Ms Shinawatra comes from a wealthy dynasty synonymous with Thai politics.

Her father Thaksin Shinawatra – a former Manchester City owner – and aunt Yingluck Shinawatra served as prime minister before her – in the early to mid 2000s – and their time in office also ended ignominiously amid corruption charges and military coups.

World

Benjamin Netanyahu to meet Donald Trump next week amid calls for Gaza ceasefire

Published

18 hours ago

July 1, 2025

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Benjamin Netanyahu to meet Donald Trump next week amid calls for Gaza ceasefire

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be meeting Donald Trump next Monday, according to US officials.

The visit on 7 July comes after Mr Trump suggested it was possible a ceasefire in Gaza could be reached within a week.

On Sunday, he wrote on social media: “MAKE THE DEAL IN GAZA. GET THE HOSTAGES BACK!!!”

At least 60 people killed across Gaza on Monday, in what turned out to be some of the heaviest attacks in weeks.

According to the Hamas-run health ministry, 56,500 people have been killed in the 20-month war.

The visit by Mr Netanyahu to Washington has not been formally announced and the officials who said it would be going ahead spoke on condition of anonymity.

An Israeli official in Washington also confirmed the meeting next Monday.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the administration was in constant communication with the Israeli government.

She said Mr Trump viewed ending the war in Gaza and returning remaining hostages held by Hamas as a top priority.

The war in Gaza broke out in retaliation for Hamas’ 7 October 2023 attacks on southern Israel that killed 1,200 people and saw a further 250 taken hostage.

An eight-week ceasefire was reached in the final days of Joe Biden’s US presidency, but Israel resumed the war in March after trying to get Hamas to accept new terms on next steps.

Talks between Israel and Hamas have stalled over whether the war should end as part of any ceasefire.