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The prospect of a pre-election interest rate cut by the Bank of England has been damaged by official figures showing no progress in bringing down the pace of wage growth.

Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed basic pay rising at an annual rate of 6% in the three months to April.

That was flat on the figure reported by the ONS for the past two months. Upwards pressure came from the government’s 9.8% rise in the National Living Wage, which took effect in April.

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When the impact of inflation was taken into account, the wage rate stood at its highest level since July 2021 at 2.9%.

The pay measure that includes bonuses actually rose to 5.9% from 5.7%, according to the ONS

While it is good news for voters as it leaves pay growth at way more than double the 2.3% inflation rate, it will not help persuade the Bank of England that the time is right for an interest rate cut when it reveals its latest decision on 20 June.

Rishi Sunak would be keen for the Bank, which is independent of the government, to impose a cut to borrowing costs on that date to bolster his case that the outlook for household and consumer finances is improving.

With the Conservatives far behind Labour in the polls, the employment figures from the ONS are the last before polling day on 4 July.

The data also showed a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4% from 4.3%, though this figure comes with a big health warning from the ONS due to continuing reliability issues with its labour force survey.

The same caution was applied to the figure covering the number of people of working age judged to be economically inactive.

That stood at 9.4 million and was up on the previous month due to a rise in long term sickness and care demands.

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The ONS said: “This month’s figures continue to show signs that the labour market may be cooling, with the number of vacancies still falling and unemployment rising, though earnings growth remains relatively strong.”

What this all means for the Bank

The big picture is definitely mixed. The jobless rate figure in particular may have some influence in Threadneedle St as it signals further damage to the economy from higher interest rates.

The Bank has hinted that an interest rate cut is likely in the coming months but it remains worried about sticky services inflation and the pace of wage growth fuelling more price rises in the economy.

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May: ‘Path is downwards’ on interest rates

Basic pay increases have outpaced the rate of inflation since last June, boosting consumer spending power on the face of it, but household budgets have remained squeezed.

The cost of living crisis, exacerbated by unprecedented raw energy price hikes following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has evolved over time to even extend to the Bank’s medicine to supress inflation.

There were 14 consecutive interest rate increases from December 2021 up until last summer aimed at dampening demand to help bring price growth down.

The rate hikes drove up the cost of borrowing, with mortgage holders for example facing additional bills of hundreds of pounds more per month on average as low fixed rate terms expired.

New deals proved eyewatering in comparison.

With the main consumer prices index measure of inflation running at 2.3% – above the Bank’s 2% target – members of the rate-setting committee have acknowledged progress but they are unlikely to follow the European Central Bank in cutting rates this month.

Financial markets saw just a 10% chance of a rate cut from 5.25% to 5% on 20 June.

Most of the money is on September.

However, those predictions could yet shift.

The ONS is also set to release this week the preliminary growth figures for the economy in April. They are predicted by economists to show zero growth for the month, largely due to the impact of poor weather.

The following week sees the publication of the latest inflation figures.

How political parties have reacted

Commenting on the jobs data, shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall said: “Today’s figures confirm that the Tories have no hiding place after 14 years of abject failure.

“On Rishi Sunak’s watch, a record number of people are out of work due to long-term sickness at terrible cost to them, to business and the taxpayer, and we remain the only G7 country whose employment rate still isn’t back to pre-pandemic levels.

“Labour’s plan will get Britain working by cutting NHS waiting lists, introducing a new national jobs and careers service, making work pay and supporting people into good jobs across every part of the country.

“It’s time to stop the chaos, turn the page and start rebuilding Britain.”

Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesperson Sarah Olney said: “This Conservative carousel of chaos has our economy on a rollercoaster ride and the British people are sick and tired of it – it’s time for a change.”

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Former Tory minister Heaton-Harris eyes top job at football regulator

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Former Tory minister Heaton-Harris eyes top job at football regulator

A former Conservative cabinet minister has thrown his hat into the ring to become the inaugural chair of Britain’s new independent football regulator.

Sky News has learnt that Chris Heaton-Harris, who stood down as an MP at July’s general election, is among those who applied for the role ahead of a deadline on Friday.

Mr Heaton-Harris is himself a qualified football referee who has officiated at matches for decades.

A former Northern Ireland secretary and chief whip under Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson respectively, he said in 2022 of his part-time career as a football official: “I took a [refereeing] course and that was it, I’ve been going ever since.

“Football has done wonders for me throughout my life so I would recommend it to everybody.”

Mr Heaton-Harris is among a large number of people who have applied for the role of chair at the Independent Football Regulator (IFR), according to officials.

A publicly available timetable for the search says that interviews for the £130,000-a-year post will end on 11 December, with an appointment expected in the new year.

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It is the second time that the government has embarked on a search for a chair for the IFR after an earlier hunt was curtailed by the general election.

The role will be based at the watchdog’s new headquarters in Manchester and will require a three-day-a-week commitment.

The Football Governance Bill had its second reading in the House of Lords this week, as part of a process that will represent the most fundamental shake-up in the oversight of English football in the game’s history.

The Labour administration has dropped a previous stipulation that the regulator should have regard to British foreign and trade policy when determining the appropriateness of a new club owner.

The IFR will monitor clubs’ adherence to rules requiring them to listen to fans’ views on issues including ticket pricing, while it may also have oversight of the parachute payments made to clubs in the years after their relegation from the Premier League.

The top flight has issued a statement expressing reservations about the regulator’s remit, while it has been broadly welcomed by the English Football League.

The IFR’s creation will come with the Premier League embroiled in a civil war over Manchester City‘s legal battles emanating from allegations that it breached the competition’s financial rules.

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Next week, the 20 Premier League clubs will meet for a lengthy shareholder meeting, with a vote on amended Associated Party Transaction rules hanging in the balance.

The league needs 14 clubs to vote in favour for the rule changes to be passed.

Contrary to earlier expectations, however, a detailed discussion on a financial distribution agreement between the Premier League and EFL is unlikely to be on the agenda.

A Department for Culture, Media and Sport spokesperson said: “The process for recruiting the Independent Football Regulator chair is under way but no appointment decisions have been made.

“We do not comment on speculation.”

This weekend, Mr Heaton-Harris could not be reached for comment.

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Pizza Hut UK hunts buyer amid Budget tax hike crisis

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Pizza Hut UK hunts buyer amid Budget tax hike crisis

Pizza Hut’s biggest UK franchisee has begun approaching potential bidders as it scrambles to mitigate the looming impact of tax hikes announced in last month’s Budget.

Sky News has learnt that Heart With Smart (HWS), which operates roughly 140 Pizza Hut dine-in restaurants, has instructed advisers to find a buyer or raise tens of millions of pounds in external funding.

City sources said this weekend that the process, which is being handled by Interpath Advisory, had got under way in recent days and was expected to result in a transaction taking place in the next few months.

HWS, which was previously called Pizza Hut Restaurants, employs about 3,000 people, making it one of the most significant businesses in Britain’s casual dining industry.

It is owned by a combination of Pricoa and the company’s management, led by chief executive Jens Hofma.

They led a management buyout reportedly worth £100m in 2018, with the business having previously owned by Rutland Partners, a private equity firm.

One source suggested that as well as the talks with external third parties, it remained possible that a financing solution could be reached with its existing backers.

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HWS licenses the Pizza Hut name from Yum! Brands, the American food giant which also owns KFC.

Insiders suggested that the increases to the national living wage and employers’ national insurance contributions (NICs) unveiled by Rachel Reeves would add approximately £4m to HWS’s annual costs – equivalent to more than half of last year’s earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation.

One added that the Pizza Hut restaurants’ operation needed additional funding to mitigate the impact of the Budget and put the business on a sustainable financial footing.

The consequences of a failure to find a buyer or new investment were unclear on Saturday, although the emergence of the process comes amid increasingly bleak warnings from across the hospitality industry.

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Last weekend, Sky News revealed that a letter co-ordinated by the trade body UK Hospitality and signed by scores of industry chiefs – including Mr Hofma – told the chancellor that left unaddressed, her Budget tax hikes would result in job losses and business closures within a year.

It also said that the scope for pubs and restaurants to pass on the tax rises in the form of higher prices was limited because of weaker consumer spending power.

That was followed by a similar letter drafted by the British Retail Consortium this week which also warned of rising unemployment across the industry, underlining the Budget backlash from large swathes of the UK economy.

Even before the Budget, hospitality operators were feeling significant pressure, with TGI Fridays collapsing into administration before being sold to a consortium of Breal Capital and Calveton.

Sky News recently revealed that Pizza Express had hired investment bankers to advise on a debt refinancing.

HWS operates all of Pizza Hut’s dine-in restaurants in Britain, but has no involvement with its large number of delivery outlets, which are run by individual franchisees.

Accounts filed at Companies House for HWS4 for the period from 5 December 2022 to 3 December 2023 show that it completed a restructuring of its debt under which its lenders agreed to suspend repayments of some of its borrowings until November next year.

The terms of the same facilities were also extended to September 2027, while it also signed a new 10-year Pizza Hut franchise agreement with Yum Brands which expires in 2032.

“Whilst market conditions have improved noticeably since 2022, consumers remain challenged by higher-than-average levels of inflation, high mortgage costs and slow growth in the economy,” the accounts said.

It added: “The costs of business remain challenging.”

Pizza Hut opened its first UK restaurant in the early 1970s and expanded rapidly over the following 15 years.

In 2020, the company announced that it was closing dozens of restaurants, with the loss of hundreds of jobs, through a company voluntary arrangement (CVA).

At that time, it operated more than 240 sites across the UK.

Mr Hofma and Interpath both declined to comment.

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UK economy grows by 0.1% between July and September – slower than expected

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UK economy grows by 0.1% between July and September - slower than expected

The UK economy grew by 0.1% between July and September, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

However, despite the small positive GDP growth recorded in the third quarter, the economy shrank by 0.1% in September, dragging down overall growth for the quarter.

The growth was also slower than what had been expected by experts and a drop from the 0.5% growth between April and June, the ONS said.

Economists polled by Reuters and the Bank of England had forecast an expansion of 0.2%, slowing from the rapid growth seen over the first half of 2024 when the economy was rebounding from last year’s shallow recession.

And the metric that Labour has said it is most focused on – the GDP per capita, or the economic output divided by the number of people in the country – also fell by 0.1%.

Reacting to the figures, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves said: “Improving economic growth is at the heart of everything I am seeking to achieve, which is why I am not satisfied with these numbers,” she said in response to the figures.

“At my budget, I took the difficult choices to fix the foundations and stabilise our public finances.

“Now we are going to deliver growth through investment and reform to create more jobs and more money in people’s pockets, get the NHS back on its feet, rebuild Britain and secure our borders in a decade of national renewal,” Ms Reeves added.

The sluggish services sector – which makes up the bulk of the British economy – was a particular drag on growth over the past three months. It expanded by 0.1%, cancelling out the 0.8% growth in the construction sector

The UK’s GDP for the the most recent quarter is lower than the 0.7% growth in the US and 0.4% in the Eurozone.

The figures have pushed the UK towards the bottom of the G7 growth table for the third quarter of the year.

It was expected to meet the same 0.2% growth figures reported in Germany and Japan – but fell below that after a slow September.

The pound remained stable following the news, hovering around $1.267. The FTSE 100, meanwhile, opened the day down by 0.4%.

The Bank of England last week predicted that Ms Reeves’s first budget as chancellor will increase inflation by up to half a percentage point over the next two years, contributing to a slower decline in interest rates than previously thought.

Announcing a widely anticipated 0.25 percentage point cut in the base rate to 4.75%, the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) forecast that inflation will return “sustainably” to its target of 2% in the first half of 2027, a year later than at its last meeting.

The Bank’s quarterly report found Ms Reeves’s £70bn package of tax and borrowing measures will place upward pressure on prices, as well as delivering a three-quarter point increase to GDP next year.

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