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The prospect of a pre-election interest rate cut by the Bank of England has been damaged by official figures showing no progress in bringing down the pace of wage growth.

Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed basic pay rising at an annual rate of 6% in the three months to April.

That was flat on the figure reported by the ONS for the past two months. Upwards pressure came from the government’s 9.8% rise in the National Living Wage, which took effect in April.

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When the impact of inflation was taken into account, the wage rate stood at its highest level since July 2021 at 2.9%.

The pay measure that includes bonuses actually rose to 5.9% from 5.7%, according to the ONS

While it is good news for voters as it leaves pay growth at way more than double the 2.3% inflation rate, it will not help persuade the Bank of England that the time is right for an interest rate cut when it reveals its latest decision on 20 June.

Rishi Sunak would be keen for the Bank, which is independent of the government, to impose a cut to borrowing costs on that date to bolster his case that the outlook for household and consumer finances is improving.

With the Conservatives far behind Labour in the polls, the employment figures from the ONS are the last before polling day on 4 July.

The data also showed a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4% from 4.3%, though this figure comes with a big health warning from the ONS due to continuing reliability issues with its labour force survey.

The same caution was applied to the figure covering the number of people of working age judged to be economically inactive.

That stood at 9.4 million and was up on the previous month due to a rise in long term sickness and care demands.

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The ONS said: “This month’s figures continue to show signs that the labour market may be cooling, with the number of vacancies still falling and unemployment rising, though earnings growth remains relatively strong.”

What this all means for the Bank

The big picture is definitely mixed. The jobless rate figure in particular may have some influence in Threadneedle St as it signals further damage to the economy from higher interest rates.

The Bank has hinted that an interest rate cut is likely in the coming months but it remains worried about sticky services inflation and the pace of wage growth fuelling more price rises in the economy.

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Basic pay increases have outpaced the rate of inflation since last June, boosting consumer spending power on the face of it, but household budgets have remained squeezed.

The cost of living crisis, exacerbated by unprecedented raw energy price hikes following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has evolved over time to even extend to the Bank’s medicine to supress inflation.

There were 14 consecutive interest rate increases from December 2021 up until last summer aimed at dampening demand to help bring price growth down.

The rate hikes drove up the cost of borrowing, with mortgage holders for example facing additional bills of hundreds of pounds more per month on average as low fixed rate terms expired.

New deals proved eyewatering in comparison.

With the main consumer prices index measure of inflation running at 2.3% – above the Bank’s 2% target – members of the rate-setting committee have acknowledged progress but they are unlikely to follow the European Central Bank in cutting rates this month.

Financial markets saw just a 10% chance of a rate cut from 5.25% to 5% on 20 June.

Most of the money is on September.

However, those predictions could yet shift.

The ONS is also set to release this week the preliminary growth figures for the economy in April. They are predicted by economists to show zero growth for the month, largely due to the impact of poor weather.

The following week sees the publication of the latest inflation figures.

How political parties have reacted

Commenting on the jobs data, shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall said: “Today’s figures confirm that the Tories have no hiding place after 14 years of abject failure.

“On Rishi Sunak’s watch, a record number of people are out of work due to long-term sickness at terrible cost to them, to business and the taxpayer, and we remain the only G7 country whose employment rate still isn’t back to pre-pandemic levels.

“Labour’s plan will get Britain working by cutting NHS waiting lists, introducing a new national jobs and careers service, making work pay and supporting people into good jobs across every part of the country.

“It’s time to stop the chaos, turn the page and start rebuilding Britain.”

Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesperson Sarah Olney said: “This Conservative carousel of chaos has our economy on a rollercoaster ride and the British people are sick and tired of it – it’s time for a change.”

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Trump state visit is all about deals to turn around UK economy

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Trump state visit is all about deals to turn around UK economy

For Donald Trump, today was primarily about one thing.

Before boarding Air Force One to make the transatlantic flight to the UK, he told reporters on the White House Lawn: “It’s to be with Prince Charles and Camilla, they’re friends of mine for a long time… you’re going to have some great pictures, it’s going to be a beautiful event.”

Britain delivered. After a military welcome, lunch with the King and Queen and a Red Arrows flypast, the president has already got more than enough photographs to admire on the plane back home. Luckily, pomp and circumstance is something we do well.

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But this was not an altruistic display. These things rarely are. As British governments have done in the past, the Starmer team leveraged Britain’s soft power to advance its own aims. Beyond the fanfare, Starmer wants to catch the president’s ear on foreign policy issues, including Gaza and Ukraine. But they are also there to talk money: investment and trade.

On trade, we faltered. The US refused to budge on its 25% tariff imposed on the aluminium and steel Industry (a reminder perhaps that no amount of tea with the King will get the US to act against its interests).

But in the arena of investment, the British government is already declaring victory. Trump arrived in Britain along with a who’s who of the US tech scene.

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Jensen Huang, chief executive of the AI chipmaker Nvidia, Apple’s Tim Cook, Microsoft’s Satya Nadella, and Sam Altman of OpenAI all made the journey over. Today, they are attending a state dinner at Windsor Castle along with the president but they had other reasons for coming too.

Many of them were here to announce major investments, running into the tens of billions of pounds, to build AI data centres in the UK under a new US-UK tech deal.

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These are private investments but the government is viewing them as a win for Starmer. His administration is – like the one before it and the one before that – scrambling to unlock economic growth in the UK. It is pinning its hopes on the transformational promise of AI.

The prospect of greater economic growth, productivity and jobs is an alluring one for Britain and, indeed, most of Western Europe’s ailing economies. The hope is that these investments will build the digital infrastructure needed to turbocharge the AI industry in the UK.

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Both sides of the road leading up to the castle were packed with onlookers as the presidential helicopter Marine One circled overhead shortly after 12pm.

The government said the deals, which came from Nvidia, Microsoft, OpenAI, Google among others, were a “vote of confidence in the UK”. And there are, of course, compelling reasons why Britain’s existing AI ecosystem is attracting these companies. It has little to do with the King.

World-class researchers, universities and scientific research have contributed to an ecosystem in Britain that is ripe for take off. Deep Mind was perhaps the most famous success story, a company that Google swooped in to acquire in 2014.

That is something Jensen Huang, chief executive of Nvidia was keen to remind us. Ahead of his trip to Windsor, he expressed surprise at Britain’s sometimes dysphoric attitude about its own capabilities.

“This week we’re here to announce that the UK is going to be a superpower… but you know, Britons can be a bit humble, even deprecating, about their successes. Really, this is a moment to celebrate the UK ecosystem.”

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Government celebrates tech win – but challenge lies ahead

He said that Britain was at the cusp of a new Industrial Revolution, and it should seize the moment.

“This is the home of the origins of artificial intelligence and some of the brightest minds in AI are here. So the expertise of creating artificial intelligence and creating and training large language models is deep here.”

The UK has obvious expertise and appeal. It is the third largest AI market in the world, after the US and China. It is home to a third of Europe’s AI start-up companies and twice as many as any other European country.

Where it falters is infrastructure. High energy costs and a creaking grid are holding back growth in data centres. The government has promised to rectify this (which has caught the attention of the tech giants, hungry as they are for energy and computational power). The deal with the US will also see both sides cooperate to expand nuclear energy in the UK.

Not everyone is comfortable with all this attention from the Americans, however. US dollars will help to fund the expansion in data centres, but US AI companies like OpenAI, which is partnering with Nvidia and Nscale to open a data centre in Blyth, will be at the forefront of the opportunities too.

Open AI will secure the access to infrastructure, energy and computing power to run and train its models. Meanwhile Nvidia will provide the chips. Nscale, the British data centre company, is set for huge growth but, where France boasts Mistral, the UK has no comparable national AI champion. For all the claims of “sovereign AI”, some may wonder whether building data centres in the UK is enough to give us sufficient control over this powerful new industry, when so much of the technology is American.

Speaking to Sky News, Mr Huang batted away those concerns.

“Sovereign AI starts with having your sovereign data… you have lots of your own data,” he said. “The data of your people, of your companies, of your society. That data is created here. It belongs to you. You should use it to train your own large language models. There’s going to be a whole bunch of different AI models being created here, and I have every confidence, so long as we provide the instrument of the science.”

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Trump finally gets his demand for a US rate cut

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Trump finally gets his demand for a US rate cut

The US central bank has cut interest rates for the first time this year, in a move president Donald Trump will likely declare is long overdue.

Mr Trump has demanded cuts to borrowing costs from the Federal Reserve ever since worries emerged in the world’s largest economy that his trade war would stoke US inflation.

The president – currently in the UK on a state visit – has, on several occasions, threatened to fire the Fed chair Jay Powell and moved to place his own supporters on the bank’s voting panel.

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He was yet to comment on the rate decision.

The fallout from the row has resonated globally, sparking worries about central bank independence. Financial markets have also reflected those concerns.

The bank, which has a dual mandate to keep inflation steady and maintain maximum employment, made its move on Wednesday after a major slowdown in the employment market that has seen hiring ease sharply.

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The latest economic indicators have shown caution over spending among both companies and consumers alike.

The Fed said the economy had moderated.

Inflation, while somewhat elevated due to the effects of higher import costs from the trade war, has not taken off as badly as some economists, and the Fed, had initially feared.

Mr Trump has sought to fire Fed rate-setter Lisa Cook. File pic: AP
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Mr Trump has sought to fire Fed rate-setter Lisa Cook. File pic: AP

Its 12-member panel backed a quarter point reduction in the Fed funds rate to a new range of between 4% to 4.25%.

The effective interest rate is in the middle of that range.

Crucially for Mr Trump, who is trying to inspire growth in the economy, the Fed signalled more reductions ahead despite continued concern over inflation.

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Trump state visit: key moments so far

Financial markets saw a further two quarter point rate cuts before the year’s end.

The dollar, which has weakened in recent days on the back of expectations of further rate cuts, fell in the wake of the decision and the Fed’s statement.

It was trading down against both the euro and pound. Sterling was almost half a cent up at $1.17.

This Fed meeting was the first with new Trump appointee Stephen Miran on the voting panel.

He was chairman of the president’s Council of Economic Advisers before being handed the role this week.

His was a sole voice in the voting for a half percentage point cut. It is clear, though the identity of participants’ forecasts are not revealed, he was the lone voice in calling for a further five quarter point reductions this year.

Mr Trump has sought to fire a member of the Fed’s board, Lisa Cook, to bolster his position further but that decision is currently subject to a legal challenge.

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Inflation remains relatively high but worse to come

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Inflation remains relatively high but worse to come

Inflation has remained relatively high, meaning goods are becoming more expensive, official figures show.

The rate of price rises remained at 3.8% in August, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Prices are expected to continue to rise, with the Bank of England forecasting the rate will hit 4% in September.

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