The prospect of a pre-election interest rate cut by the Bank of England has been damaged by official figures showing no progress in bringing down the pace of wage growth.
Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed basic pay rising at an annual rate of 6% in the three months to April.
That was flat on the figure reported by the ONS for the past two months. Upwards pressure came from the government’s 9.8% rise in the National Living Wage, which took effect in April.
When the impact of inflation was taken into account, the wage rate stood at its highest level since July 2021 at 2.9%.
The pay measure that includes bonuses actually rose to 5.9% from 5.7%, according to the ONS
While it is good news for voters as it leaves pay growth at way more than double the 2.3% inflation rate, it will not help persuade the Bank of England that the time is right for an interest rate cut when it reveals its latest decision on 20 June.
Rishi Sunak would be keen for the Bank, which is independent of the government, to impose a cut to borrowing costs on that date to bolster his case that the outlook for household and consumer finances is improving.
With the Conservatives far behind Labour in the polls, the employment figures from the ONS are the last before polling day on 4 July.
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The data also showed a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4% from 4.3%, though this figure comes with a big health warning from the ONS due to continuing reliability issues with its labour force survey.
The same caution was applied to the figure covering the number of people of working age judged to be economically inactive.
That stood at 9.4 million and was up on the previous month due to a rise in long term sickness and care demands.
The ONS said: “This month’s figures continue to show signs that the labour market may be cooling, with the number of vacancies still falling and unemployment rising, though earnings growth remains relatively strong.”
What this all means for the Bank
The big picture is definitely mixed. The jobless rate figure in particular may have some influence in Threadneedle St as it signals further damage to the economy from higher interest rates.
The Bank has hinted that an interest rate cut is likely in the coming months but it remains worried about sticky services inflation and the pace of wage growth fuelling more price rises in the economy.
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May: ‘Path is downwards’ on interest rates
Basic pay increases have outpaced the rate of inflation since last June, boosting consumer spending power on the face of it, but household budgets have remained squeezed.
The cost of living crisis, exacerbated by unprecedented raw energy price hikes following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has evolved over time to even extend to the Bank’s medicine to supress inflation.
There were 14 consecutive interest rate increases from December 2021 up until last summer aimed at dampening demand to help bring price growth down.
The rate hikes drove up the cost of borrowing, with mortgage holders for example facing additional bills of hundreds of pounds more per month on average as low fixed rate terms expired.
New deals proved eyewatering in comparison.
With the main consumer prices index measure of inflation running at 2.3% – above the Bank’s 2% target – members of the rate-setting committee have acknowledged progress but they are unlikely to follow the European Central Bank in cutting rates this month.
Financial markets saw just a 10% chance of a rate cut from 5.25% to 5% on 20 June.
Most of the money is on September.
However, those predictions could yet shift.
The ONS is also set to release this week the preliminary growth figures for the economy in April. They are predicted by economists to show zero growth for the month, largely due to the impact of poor weather.
The following week sees the publication of the latest inflation figures.
How political parties have reacted
Commenting on the jobs data, shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall said: “Today’s figures confirm that the Tories have no hiding place after 14 years of abject failure.
“On Rishi Sunak’s watch, a record number of people are out of work due to long-term sickness at terrible cost to them, to business and the taxpayer, and we remain the only G7 country whose employment rate still isn’t back to pre-pandemic levels.
“Labour’s plan will get Britain working by cutting NHS waiting lists, introducing a new national jobs and careers service, making work pay and supporting people into good jobs across every part of the country.
“It’s time to stop the chaos, turn the page and start rebuilding Britain.”
Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesperson Sarah Olney said: “This Conservative carousel of chaos has our economy on a rollercoaster ride and the British people are sick and tired of it – it’s time for a change.”
The rugged mountains, limestone caves and spectacular waterfalls of Bannau Brycheiniog – the Brecon Beacons – attract visitors from all over the world.
Tourism is a vital part of the local economy. But local attractions say the industry would be devastated by the Welsh government’s plans for a nightly visitor tax.
“In an area like this all we’ve got is tourism and farming – there is nothing else,” says Ashford Price from the National Showcaves Centre, a visitor complex of cathedral sized caverns, winding tunnels, a dry ski slope, shire horse centre, self-catering accommodation and campsite.
“If they go on like this the future for Welsh tourism is really, really bleak. It will be an absolute catastrophe.”
The proposed fee would be £1.25 for those staying at hotels, bed and breakfasts and self-catering accommodation – and 75p for campsites, caravan sites, and hostels.
Ashford is secretary of the Welsh Association of Visitor Attractions. In protest against the plans, its more than one hundred members closed their attractions for a day.
“Even Welsh people who live in Wales will be clobbered by this tourism tax,” he said.
“It’s quite high, there’s no reduction for children. For a family that will add roughly £35, £40 a week. If you’re staying two weeks, as many people do, it’s £70 on top of your bill. At a time when everybody’s earnings are really struggling, it’s utter insanity to put Wales at such a disadvantage.
“There will be no more big developments. We already cancelled a development for £1.5m and I know other attractions are doing the same. I don’t think the Welsh government really understands how demoralised people feel.”
‘It’s a disaster’
In the nearby village, Anthony Christopher, landlord of the Penycae Inn, is deeply frustrated.
“I just feel like calling this government a bunch of weasels,” he said.
“We’re a small family business and all these extra taxes are taking away the will to do anything else.
“We have national insurance already – contributions are very high. VAT is very high. Now this tax is coming – it’s a disaster. We have to put this extra charge on the customers – how much more can we put on the customers? It’s terrible.”
Anthony has just converted an old school building into a 14-bedroom hotel – due to open in January.
“If I knew this was going to happen I may not have built my hotel. It’s very worrying.”
Many areas in Wales have struggled with the impact of tourism in recent years, with complaints about overflowing car parks, traffic jams, litter and even human faeces on Mount Snowdon.
The Welsh government argues giving councils the power to charge a tourism tax would help pay for better local services.
“During a period of sustained austerity of the sort we’ve seen over the last 14 years, local authorities inevitably end up focusing their spend on those things for which they’ve got statutory obligations – social care, education and so on,” said Finance Secretary Mark Drakeford.
“That has meant there’s been a reduction in the amount of money available for local authorities to invest in infrastructure that makes them successful places for tourists to visit. This is a way of collecting a very small contribution from every one of us who makes a visit to be reinvested in the conditions that make for that visit to be a success.
“It’s money that would be reinvested in the tourism industry, for example, clean beaches and safe footpaths and car parks and public toilets.”
‘People simply absorb it’
The tourism industry accounts for 11% of all jobs in Wales. But an impact assessment commissioned by the Welsh government predicted that in a worst case scenario, 730 jobs could be lost in the sector if a visitor tax was introduced across the country, with an economic cost of £47.5 million. It also predicted 340 local authority jobs would be created.
Mr Drakeford insists the tax will boost tourism – not damage it.
“For those who have fears that the very modest visitor levy will put visitors off, the experience of around the world is that simply isn’t the case. There is a great deal now of empirical evidence for many places that have introduced visitor levies of this sort, not just abroad, but in Manchester, for example,” he said.
“The evidence is not just from big places like Venice, but from rural France, where there’s a levy of this sort. People simply absorb it as part of the costs of their holiday.”
Tourism taxes in cities across Europe range from around 50p to £5 a night, although businesses generally benefit from lower rates of VAT than the 20% paid in the UK.
The idea is becoming increasingly popular across the UK.
While some regional mayors like Andy Burnham have been calling for equivalent powers to be introduced in England, the Westminster government has no plans to do so.
But local areas can work around this through businesses coming together to set up their own schemes. Manchester’s £1 a night charge raised £2.8m in its first year and hoteliers in Liverpool are about to vote on a similar idea.
Other cities, including York and London, are also considering the option – though a plan for Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole has been put on hold after objections from hotel owners about the ballot held there.
An Oxford University spinout which is developing a new generation of weed-resistant herbicides has begun planting a $40m (£32m) fundraising with prospective backers.
Sky News understands that Moa Technology, which was co-founded by the world-leading university’s head of plant sciences Professor Liam Dolan, is kicking off a Series C funding round.
Moa has already raised $59m (£47m) from prominent investors including Oxford Science Enterprises (OSE), BGF and Lansdowne Partners, the Mayfair-based hedge fund.
Its existing shareholders are understood to be supportive of the new fundraising plans, although potential new investors will also be approached.
Moa is developing active ingredients which can break weeds’ resistance to herbicides – a key challenge for the global agricultural sector – with the aim of securing approval from regulators.
Similar to the growth of antibiotic resistance in humans, resistant ‘superweeds’ are able to kill a farmer’s entire crop, ultimately endangering food security.
Industry data suggests that farmers spend up to $40bn (£31.2bn) annually on herbicides, and a further $25bn (£19.9bn) on weed-resistant seeds.
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However, a number of leading weedkillers, including Bayer-owned Roundup, have sparked multibillion dollar lawsuits over their alleged implications for human health.
Moa has developed more than 70 so-called ‘modes of action’, with several of the company’s products in advanced field trials in six countries, including the UK, US and France.
According to Moa, these could, assuming they gain regulatory approval, be commercially available by the end of the decade.
The OSE-backed spinout has a commercial agreement with Nufarm, an Australian agrichemicals company, to further develop one of its products.
A Moa spokesman said it intended to operate a royalties model similar to that of ARM Holdings, the chip designer, in semiconductors, meaning it will focus on research and development, and license its products to global manufacturers and distributors.
The company is run by chief executive Dr Virginia Corless, who has had extensive experience commercialising sustainable solutions in the energy, water and agriculture sectors.
An update on Moa’s fundraising progress is likely in the first half of next year.
The cost of living crisis has “boosted” the secondhand industry, Sky News has been told, as more than £2bn is spent on pre-loved gifts this Christmas.
Adam Jay, CEO of Vinted Marketplace, said the “trend” in buying pre-loved was “happening anyway” but described rising costs elsewhere as a possible “accelerator”.
“I’m sure the cost of living crisis has been a boost,” he told Sky News, adding that it had supported “the secondhand industry and trading of secondhand”.
“But I do think this trend was happening anyway because of people’s consciousness around overconsumption, around sustainable buying and sustainable consumption.
“I think all of these have I think these are deep trends and I think they’re trends that are here to stay. I really think secondhand can become the first choice ultimately,” he said.
Vinted, an online marketplace for buying and selling pre-owned items, made its first annual net profit last year of €18m (£15m).
The company’s revenue also rose by 61% year on year amid a rise in demand for secondhand goods.
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The Vinted boss’s comments come as more than £2bn is expected to have been spent buying pre-loved gifts this Christmas.
A report by Vinted and Retail Economics found that secondhand shopping will account for just over 10% of all gift spending.
More than four in five people also said they might spend some of their budget on pre-loved gifts this year.
Vicky Saynor, from Hertfordshire, has bought all of her Christmas gifts secondhand, with a total budget of £150.
“This year I said, that’s it – it’s only secondhand or they’re not getting anything,” she said.
She has spent £20 on each of her children and believes she will have saved possibly over £1,000.
“We have so much stuff in this world we just don’t need to keep buying more of it. One person’s rubbish is another person gold,” she continued, “I love old things – they have a life, they have a history.
“And secondhand clothing – why not? When I was young I would reuse or pass on and that all changed in the 90s and 00s when it really focused on consumerism. But we have to change our ways – we have to change our habits.”
According to the Vinted report, shoppers are also selling their own belongings to fund Christmas gifts, with 43% selling online.
More are planning to increase how much they buy secondhand too with over a third (35%) expected to buy more in the next five years.
In his interview with Sky News, Vinted’s Adam Jay has also highlighted the “confusion” around new reporting rules on tax in the new year.
Regulations from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) mean that if someone sells above a certain threshold Vinted must ask the seller for their national insurance number and share it with HMRC.
Mr Jay explained, however, that it is “a relatively small proportion of the overall sellers” on the platform and most will “already know” if they have to provide details.
“Vinted is obligated to collect the national insurance number for any seller who sold more than 30 items or more than £1,700 worth of product in the previous 12 months,” he said.
“But here’s the really important thing,” he added, “the obligation to give your national insurance number does not mean there is any obligation to actually pay tax… there is no tax to pay on the private sale of secondhand items.”
He also described the new rules as “a little challenging” for Vinted, as many members already sell at least 30 items.
“Hopefully they’ll [HMRC] rethink whether those thresholds are set in exactly the right way to make sure that ultimately the right people are paying the tax.”
While “supportive” of HMRC decision to change regulations, Mr Jay added: “I wish the thresholds had been set a bit differently. They’re actually set consistently across all OECD countries.
“I would hope even across all of Vinted markets in which we operate, that the tax authorities will consider changing those thresholds or making them more appropriate for business models like Vinted.”