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The prospect of a pre-election interest rate cut by the Bank of England has been damaged by official figures showing no progress in bringing down the pace of wage growth.

Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed basic pay rising at an annual rate of 6% in the three months to April.

That was flat on the figure reported by the ONS for the past two months. Upwards pressure came from the government’s 9.8% rise in the National Living Wage, which took effect in April.

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When the impact of inflation was taken into account, the wage rate stood at its highest level since July 2021 at 2.9%.

The pay measure that includes bonuses actually rose to 5.9% from 5.7%, according to the ONS

While it is good news for voters as it leaves pay growth at way more than double the 2.3% inflation rate, it will not help persuade the Bank of England that the time is right for an interest rate cut when it reveals its latest decision on 20 June.

Rishi Sunak would be keen for the Bank, which is independent of the government, to impose a cut to borrowing costs on that date to bolster his case that the outlook for household and consumer finances is improving.

With the Conservatives far behind Labour in the polls, the employment figures from the ONS are the last before polling day on 4 July.

The data also showed a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4% from 4.3%, though this figure comes with a big health warning from the ONS due to continuing reliability issues with its labour force survey.

The same caution was applied to the figure covering the number of people of working age judged to be economically inactive.

That stood at 9.4 million and was up on the previous month due to a rise in long term sickness and care demands.

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The 800,000 people who have fallen into ‘economic inactivity’

The ONS said: “This month’s figures continue to show signs that the labour market may be cooling, with the number of vacancies still falling and unemployment rising, though earnings growth remains relatively strong.”

What this all means for the Bank

The big picture is definitely mixed. The jobless rate figure in particular may have some influence in Threadneedle St as it signals further damage to the economy from higher interest rates.

The Bank has hinted that an interest rate cut is likely in the coming months but it remains worried about sticky services inflation and the pace of wage growth fuelling more price rises in the economy.

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May: ‘Path is downwards’ on interest rates

Basic pay increases have outpaced the rate of inflation since last June, boosting consumer spending power on the face of it, but household budgets have remained squeezed.

The cost of living crisis, exacerbated by unprecedented raw energy price hikes following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has evolved over time to even extend to the Bank’s medicine to supress inflation.

There were 14 consecutive interest rate increases from December 2021 up until last summer aimed at dampening demand to help bring price growth down.

The rate hikes drove up the cost of borrowing, with mortgage holders for example facing additional bills of hundreds of pounds more per month on average as low fixed rate terms expired.

New deals proved eyewatering in comparison.

With the main consumer prices index measure of inflation running at 2.3% – above the Bank’s 2% target – members of the rate-setting committee have acknowledged progress but they are unlikely to follow the European Central Bank in cutting rates this month.

Financial markets saw just a 10% chance of a rate cut from 5.25% to 5% on 20 June.

Most of the money is on September.

However, those predictions could yet shift.

The ONS is also set to release this week the preliminary growth figures for the economy in April. They are predicted by economists to show zero growth for the month, largely due to the impact of poor weather.

The following week sees the publication of the latest inflation figures.

How political parties have reacted

Commenting on the jobs data, shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall said: “Today’s figures confirm that the Tories have no hiding place after 14 years of abject failure.

“On Rishi Sunak’s watch, a record number of people are out of work due to long-term sickness at terrible cost to them, to business and the taxpayer, and we remain the only G7 country whose employment rate still isn’t back to pre-pandemic levels.

“Labour’s plan will get Britain working by cutting NHS waiting lists, introducing a new national jobs and careers service, making work pay and supporting people into good jobs across every part of the country.

“It’s time to stop the chaos, turn the page and start rebuilding Britain.”

Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesperson Sarah Olney said: “This Conservative carousel of chaos has our economy on a rollercoaster ride and the British people are sick and tired of it – it’s time for a change.”

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UK-EU trade deal: What is in the Brexit reset agreement?

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UK-EU trade deal: What is in the Brexit reset agreement?

The UK and the EU have agreed a new trade deal – five years after Brexit kicked in.

Following six months of talks after Sir Keir Starmer promised a fresh deal when he became prime minister last July, the two sides have come to an agreement.

Here are the details:

eGates

British passport holders will be able to use more eGates in Europe to avoid the long border control queues that have become the norm since Brexit in many EU countries.

Pet travel

Pet passports will be brought back so cats and dogs coming from the UK will no longer need pricey animal health certificates for every trip. After Brexit, pet owners had to get a certificate from a vet in the UK then a vet in the EU before returning.

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Pic: iStock
Image:
Pets will now be allowed to travel on a pet passport instead of having to have a health certificate every time they travel. Pic: iStock

Red tape on food and drink sales

A new sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) deal has been agreed to reduce red tape currently needed to import and export food and drink between the UK and the EU.

There is no time limit to this part of the deal, which the government says will reduce the burden on businesses and reduce lorry queues at the border.

The “vast majority” of routine checks and certificates for animal and plant products will be removed completely, including between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

The government says this could lower food prices and increase choice on supermarket shelves.

Some British foods that have been prevented from being sold in the EU since Brexit will be allowed back in again, including burgers and sausages.

Fishing rights

The current fishing deal agreed in 2020 will continue for 12 years.

There will be no increase in fish quotas.

The Cornish fishing village of Padstow.
Image:
British fishing rights will continue for 12 years. Pic: PA

EU fishing vessels can fish in UK waters, but they require a valid licence, and there are annual negotiations on access and share of stock.

The UK government has announced a £360m investment into the fishing industry to go towards new technology and equipment to modernise the fleet, train the workforce, help revitalise coastal communities, support tourism and boost seafood exports.

Defence

A new security and defence partnership has been agreed so the UK defence industry can participate in the EU’s plan for a £150bn defence fund called Security Action for Europe (SAFE). This will support thousands of British jobs.

The UK and EU will also enhance cooperation over maritime security and accident reporting.

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Reeves: ‘Today is a really big day’

Carbon tax

The deal will see closer co-operation on emissions by the UK and the EU, linking their own emissions trading systems.

The UK’s scheme sets a cap on the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions allowed from the power generation sector, energy-intensive industries and aviation, with companies issued allowances that they can trade with each other.

Under the deal, UK businesses will avoid being hit by the EU’s carbon tax, due to come in next year, which would have handed £800m to the EU.

Steel

British steel exports will be protected from new EU rules and tariffs to save UK steel £25m a year.

Further talks:

Youth mobility scheme

The UK and the EU have agreed to more negotiations on a youth mobility scheme to allow people aged 18-30 in the UK and the EU to move freely between countries for a limited period.

The scheme would include visas for young people working, studying, volunteering, travelling and working as au pairs.

Erasmus

The EU and the UK have agreed they should work towards an Erasmus programme, the student exchange programme which was scrapped when Brexit took place.

Catching criminals

The two sides have agreed to enter talks about the UK having access to EU facial images data to help catch dangerous criminals.

Migration

The two sides have agreed to further work on finding solutions to tackle illegal migration, including on returns and a joint commitment to tackle Channel crossings.

Electricity

The UK and the EU said they should explore the UK’s participation in the EU’s internal electricity market, including in its trading platforms.

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Ryanair raises fares after profits hit by lower ticket prices

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Ryanair raises fares after profits hit by lower ticket prices

Europe’s largest airline has seen annual earnings drop by 16% after cutting air fares – but revealed a price hike as it seeks to return to growth.

Ryanair reported profits after tax fell to €1.61bn (£1.35bn) for the year to 31 March, down from €1.92bn (£1.61bn) in 2024, still the second highest on record.

On average, plane tickets were 7% cheaper during this period than the 12 months before, it said.

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There had been a 21% rise in fares in the year up to March 2024, which bosses had signalled was due to end.

Higher-for-longer interest rates and inflation in the first half of the year meant ticket prices had to come down, the budget carrier said.

But fares are already back on the rise, Ryanair’s chief executive Michael O’Leary said.

The airline “cautiously” expects to recover “most, but not all” of the fare decline, which he said will boost profits.

Demand for summer flights is “strong”, Mr O’Leary said, with peak fares “modestly” ahead of last year.

In recent months, that rebound has already been under way. Fares since April are on track to be “a mid-high teen per cent ahead” by the end of next month, compared with the same period last year.

That trend is expected to continue to July, August and September, Mr O’Leary said.

“While we cautiously expect to recover most, but not all of last year’s 7% fare decline, which should lead to reasonable net profit growth in 2025-26, it is far too early to provide any meaningful guidance,” he said.

“The final 2025-26 outcome remains heavily exposed to adverse external developments, including the risk of tariff wars, macro-economic shocks, conflict escalation in Ukraine and the Middle East and European air traffic control mismanagement/short staffing.”

Read more from Sky News:
UK and EU agree ‘Brexit reset’ trade deal

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Passenger numbers grew to a record 200 million on the back of cheaper fares, hitting a target that had been reduced due to delays in delivering new Boeing planes.

The US manufacturer has struggled with increased regulatory oversight after a door panel blew off an Alaska Airlines plane mid-flight in January last year. Strike action by staff had added to the delays.

The forecast for passenger numbers has been reduced again. Ryanair now aims to transport 206 million passengers in this financial year.

It hopes to reach 300 million passengers by 2034 and on Monday said it still expects to receive 300 new Boeing planes by 2033.

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UK and EU agree ‘Brexit reset’ trade deal

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UK and EU agree 'Brexit reset' trade deal

The UK and the EU have agreed a new post-Brexit “reset” trade deal after months of negotiations.

A UK government source said: “All in all, a good deal for all.”

The talks were the first since Boris Johnson agreed the initial Brexit deal in January 2020, when the UK left the EU.

Politics latest: Details of UK-EU deal emerge

Talks went “down to the wire”, with a breakthrough at about 10.30pm on Sunday ahead of a Monday 10am deadline, as UK fishing rights were, yet again, a major sticking point negotiators had to work through.

Sky News understands the EU wanted permanent access to UK waters for fishing, but they have agreed to access for 12 years.

There will be no change to the current access for UK fishing communities, with no reduction in British quotas or increase in the amount the EU is allowed to catch.

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Fishing rights were a major part of the Brexit “leave” campaign, although fishing only accounts for 0.4% of GDP.

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UK-EU reset deal done

Details are expected later today on defence and security, which could feature an agreement allowing British firms access to a £125 billion EU defence.

The two sides were also looking at deals allowing British travellers to use e-gates at European airports and cutting red tape on food exports and animal/plant health for trade.

Sky News understands talks are continuing on a youth mobility scheme to allow people aged 18-30 in the UK and the EU to move freely between countries for a limited period of time.

Sir Keir Starmer promised in his 2024 election manifesto he would sign a new trade and security deal with the EU, and has embarked on a charm offensive across Europe since winning power.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves told a meeting of business leaders it had “not been easy” to reach a deal but said it would “make it easier” for UK businesses.

EU relations minister Nick Thomas Symonds said it was a “historic day”.

“Good for jobs, good for bills, good for borders,” he posted on X.

“And more…Britain back on the world stage, with a government in the service of working people.”

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Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch called the deal “very concerning” and said 12 years EU access for fishing is three times longer than the government wanted.

“We’re becoming a rule-taker from Brussels once again,” she said.

“And with no details on any cap or time limits on youth mobility, fears of free movement returning will only increase.”

The Cornish fishing village of Padstow.
Image:
Fishing was a major sticking point in the talks. Pic: PA

Reform UK leader and Brexiteer Nigel Farage described the deal as a “surrender”.

Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds told Sky News details were still being worked out just three hours before the deadline.

With just over an hour to go before the 10am deadline, the EU ambassadors’ committee approved the deal, ahead of a summit with EU leaders in London this morning.

A news conference to announce the details of the deal is set for later.

This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.

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