Crude oil futures were little changed Tuesday as OPEC stuck to its demand forecasts, counting on steady economic growth this year.
Oil prices rallied more than 2% Monday and have now recovered most of the losses from last week. The market had sold-off to four month lows after OPEC+ decided to increase crude production in October.
Here are today’s energy prices:
West Texas Intermediate July contract: $77.63, down 11 cents or 0.14%. Year to date, U.S. oil has gained 8.4%.
Brent August contract: $81.54 a barrel, down 9 cents, or 0.11%. Year to date, the global benchmark is ahead 5.9%.
RBOB Gasoline July contract: $2.39 per gallon, down 0.57%. Year to date, gasoline is up 14%.
Natural Gas July contract: $3.07 per thousand cubic feet, up 5.78%. Year to date, gas has advanced 22%.
OPEC is projecting oil demand growth of 2.2 million barrels per day for 2024 and 1.8 million bpd in 2025, according to the group’s monthly report. The oil producers see global economic growth of 2.8% this year and 2.9% in 2025.
OPEC expects the services sector to maintain stable momentum and drive economic growth in the second half of the year, “particularly supported by travel and tourism, with a consequent positive impact on oil demand.”
John Evans, analyst with oil broker PVM, said traders appeared to be “buying the dip” after many investors abandoned their long positions in the wake of the OPEC+ production decision.
“After oil prices experienced a bearish confluence of events, shook out much length and toyed with being oversold, there is almost an inevitability in the rally back to current levels,” Evans said in a note.
Oil Prices, Energy News and Analysis
Money managers cut their net long position in Brent by 69% week over week to the lowest level since 2014 in the wake of the OPEC+ decision, according to JPMorgan.
Despite the bearish sentiment last week, Goldman Sachs forecast the market will enter into a deficit on summer fuel demand that will push Brent back up to $86 per barrel in the third quarter.
Traders are looking ahead to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve meeting and U.S. inflation data for May on Wednesday. The International Energy Agency will release its monthly oil market report the same day.
Greenworks’ latest 60V cordless chainsaw delivers performance that rivals many gas models, but without the harmful emissions or annoying pull cord. Whether dropping saplings, pruning thick limbs, or clearing up trails after a storm, this battery-powered tool is ready to work.
First released at last year’s CES show in Las Vegas, Greenworks’ 60V li-ion battery packs enough power for 100 clean cuts of the saw’s 16″ blade, and its lightweight, 12.5 lb. frame, tool-less chain tensioner, and automatic oiling system come together for convenient maintenance and easy-to-control power.
When it’s time to get to work, the chainsaw’s brushless electric motor can spin the chain at more than 10,000 rpm with (the company claims) about 20% more torque than a 42cc gas chainsaw for fast, confident cuts through hard woods while keeping noise and vibration to a minimum.
That low-noise and fume-free operation makes Greenworks’ chainsaws an upgrade for both the operator and the neighborhood.
“Greenworks is proud to offer comprehensive battery-powered solutions for everyone, from homeowners and outdoor enthusiasts to major commercial landscaping contractors,” Klaus Hahn, Greenworks’ President, explained at its launch. “These innovations further our company’s vision of building a more powerful future with clean energy, and they illustrate our tagline ‘Life. Powered. By Greenworks.’”
Greenworks 60V chainsaw specs
up to 100 cuts on a single charge with the included 2.5Ah battery on 4×4 wood
20% more torque and faster cutting than a 42cc gas chainsaw
no prime, no choke, no pull with no aggravating pull cord
2.0 kW (2.7 hp) max output
brushless motor provides more power, longer run-times, and extended life
The Greenworks 60V 16″ brushless cordless chainsaw, a 2.5Ah battery, and charger are available online for $299.99 – but it’s on sale for “just” $189.99 (or $192.49, with the 18″ arm) on Amazon through September 18th.
If you needed another reason to check it out, the company claims using the electric chainsaw instead of a gas unit saves as much carbon emissions as driving 11,000 miles.
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Heavy mineral and metals mining is one of the dirtiest industries on the planet, but Chinese equipment giant XCMG doesn’t think it has to stay that way. To prove it, the company has unveiled a sweeping pledge to electrify and decarbonize mining — and they’re dragging over 100 global partners with them.
Along with with 107 global industry partners from 26 countries, Chinese equipment brand XCMG has issued a Joint Declaration on Global Zero-Carbon Smart Mining, aiming to electrify, automate, and otherwise decarbonize international mining. The pledge addresses 12 key areas including electrification, autonomous operation, net-zero emissions, circular economy, technology sharing, international cooperation, and smarter maintenance strategies.
“As a global leader in zero-carbon smart mining solutions, XCMG is committed to addressing industry bottlenecks through integrating new energy equipment, intelligent control systems and full-lifecycle services,” said Yang Dongsheng, chairman of XCMG Group. “We have resolved the four core challenges of energy infrastructure, new energy equipment portfolios, smart mining management systems and financial support, aiming to help our customers achieving both business growth and environmental wins.”
It’s always great to see efforts like this to decarbonize. But those efforts mean millions of new equipment assets to replace the millions of existing diesel assets deployed currently.
With a strong hand in the autonomous haul truck race and ultra-competitive pricing to back their electric plays, it seems like XCMG is about to get serious as it expands its reach into the Western world. It’s no wonder the legacy brands are running scared and hiding behind the bogus “messy middle” propaganda!
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European automakers asked the EU Commission to review and potentially modify the bloc’s 2035 all-EV target at an auto summit on Friday, but the commission is reportedly standing firm despite the industry’s big push this week for more leniency.
In 2021, Europe announced a target to go all-electric by 2035. It was part of a greater package of climate reforms designed to target a 55% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030 and full climate neutrality by 2050.
But a lot has changed since then. European EV sales and market share have continued to rise, but even more importantly, Chinese EV sales have accelerated rapidly… much faster than those in Europe. In 2020, Europe had 11% plug-in (BEV + PHEV) market share and China was at 5%; but in the interim, China leapfrogged Europe by hitting 47% plug-in share in 2024, while Europe only reached 24%. BEV-only numbers are lower, but BEVs still outsell PHEVs significantly.
This has been accompanied by a significant rise in Chinese EV exports as well. As China’s EV manufacturing effort ramps up rapidly due to forward-looking industrial strategy and encouragement of EV startups, the country has started to produce advanced EVs so cheaply that slow-moving Western automakers are finding it hard to compete (after putting in little effort to do so).
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And so, what are the automakers to do? They’ve already tried nothing, and they’re all out of ideas. So they’re doing what they usually do: going to the teacher to beg for an extension.
Automakers make a final push for leniency on EU emissions
Friday’s auto summit was reportedly the third and last “crisis meeting” between automakers and the EU Commission, timed at the end of the largest European auto show, IAA Munich. Automakers and some governments spent the week agitating for leniency on CO2 targets and to extend the life of the internal combustion engine.
The argument is that automakers don’t have enough time to get up to 100% EV sales by 2035, having only advanced from 11%->24% between 2020 and 2024. But despite automakers’ protestations, China’s move from 5%->47% in the same time frame shows that a lot more is possible than European automakers are letting on.
The review comes after Europe already loosened rules for automakers earlier this year. In March, the Commission gave automakers “breathing room,” slightly extending the deadline for emissions compliance for the 2025-2027 model years (which they now seem on track to meet).
Ironically, this “breathing room” for automakers would result in less “breathing room” for actual humans with lungs, who will have to breathe more pollution as a result of the automakers’ inability to stop poisoning everyone.
Despite that Europe is reportedly standing firm on its targets, it may offer some minor flexibility in its review.
What form the reviewed targets might take is not yet clear. But some automakers and government entities like Germany’s CDU (whose leader, Friedrich Merz, said the auto industry should “not limit itself to a single solution”) are asking for “solutions” that still rely on combustion, and extend the lifespan of polluting, complex and wasteful gasoline engines.
EU President Ursula Von der Leyen reportedly says that the EU will hold firm, but did not rule out potential exceptions for plug-in hybrid vehicles with primarily use electricity but have a combustion engine as a fallback.
While synthetic “e-fuels” created from renewable electricity are principally carbon-free and are obviously better than fossil-based fuels, internal combustion engines are still desperately inefficient, with 20-30% efficiency, as compared to ~90% efficiency for electric motors. Putting that electricity directly into a BEV is a far more efficient way to convert electricity to motion than using the electricity to create synthetic fuels, then shipping and inefficiently combusting those fuels.
For biofuels, which are also carbon neutral, the land and water required is an order of magnitude larger than what’s needed for renewable electricity sources used to fuel electric vehicles. In order to fuel all the world’s cars with biofuels, we would need about twice as much land and rainfall as is available on Earth.
And while it’s nice to think that all these combustion engines might suddenly convert to using biofuels, that seems unlikely to happen. So, continuing to build these engines means they will continue to combust things that, mathematically, must remain underground and uncombusted.
Meanwhile, climate change continues to accelerate as human emissions continue to rise. This is the largest and objectively the most important challenge that humanity has ever created for itself, and one that Europe needs to confront boldly.
Finally, one auto CEO speaks the truth
Thankfully, somebody pointed out the ridiculousness of this debate.
“I don’t know of any better technology than the electric car for advancing CO2 reduction in transportation in the coming years. But even apart from climate protection, the electric car is simply the better technology,” said Döllner, who said that the constant debates over whether inferior combustion engines should be preserved are “counterproductive and unsettle customers.”
Meanwhile, Mercedes CEO Ola Källenius, who also heads the European Automobile Manufacturer’s Association (ACEA), went exactly in the wrong direction with his comments, saying that “hybrids and efficient high-tech combustion engines should remain part of the way forward, otherwise we risk acceptance and jobs.”
The actual reality of the situation is that Europe will lose jobs if it fails on the EV transition… which it alreadyis, and will fail even harder with the complacency that Källenius and Merz have asked for. Doubling down on combustion will result in failure in the face of superior competition from overseas.
At least one CEO, Döllner, actually seems to get it. Although, he did become CEO shortly before Audi tamped down on its EV push, so maybe he needs to listen to his own words.
An unnamed European official, quoted by Euronews, also injected some reality into the situation. After Friday’s talks, the person said “even if the Commission took down these targets, global competition would set them for the industry,” recognizing that superior Chinese EVs are already out-competing European brands and that competition may result in change regardless of any futzing about the automakers beg the EU to do.
A retreat would surrender to Chinese competition
The current situation in Europe involves rising competition from the aforementioned Chinese EV exports. While Chinese share of European EV sales is still rather low at around 11%, that share has been growing rapidly. And it’s growing because, despite the tariff Europe levies on Chinese EVs, these cars still offer quite a good value proposition, and some have better software features than those available from slower-moving traditional automakers.
This is one thing that has European automakers scared about the EV transition. But instead of recognizing that they are behind and need to catch up, they are falling back to the default mode for large businesses – begging government to slow things down so that they can maintain their dominant position. But that hasn’t worked before, and it won’t work now, and thankfully Europe seems not to be taking the bait.
The only way that European automakers can confront the rising challenge from Chinese EVs, and work to solve climate change which their products are the largest single cause of, and which the transportation industry specifically is not doing enough to fix, is by committing more seriously to the EV transition, not by begging the government to let them move more slowly.
Notably, the same sort of begging is not happening in China. When new regulations threatened to destroy the market for ICE cars in China and leave millions of cars unsellable, Chinese auto dealers did ask for a reprieve… but only for six months, in order to sell off existing inventory, while also calling on all levels of industry and government to take the EV transition more seriously, rather than asking anyone to pump the brakes on it.
And none of these Chinese EVs are having any trouble with emissions limits, either. They are not poisoning the lungs (and every other organ) of Europeans – that’s being done by the combustion engine makers.
The only answer is to accelerate, not decelerate
All the above said, Europe’s target probably should be reviewed… because 2035 is not early enough. The faster we work to confront climate change, the better. No matter how expensive it seems it might be to solve the problem that we collectively have spent the last century and a half causing (and have supercharged in the last 30 years), that cost will only get higher as time goes on and as more damage is done.
Many studies have pointed out that the faster we solve this problem, the cheaper it will be to fix, so every moment lost as a result of the auto industry begging for more time only represents more cost, death, and disruption for humanity and for all species on Earth.
Lobbying to slow down the transition therefore does not just harm European industry, but also would harm all life on Earth. And, as Audi’s CEO pointed out, debate over the simple truth of electric drive’s superiority is counterproductive. The European Commission is right to hold firm on its targets, and should rebuff any further pleas to weaken them from the auto industry, the very industry that got itself, and all of us, into this problem in the first place.
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