Rather like Sir Keir Starmer, Sir Ed Davey inherited a thoroughly broken party in 2020 when he became leader.
Also rather like Sir Keir, if the polls and polling projections are to be believed, Sir Ed has brought the party to the brink of a remarkable comeback, reversing the deep losses bequeathed by Nick Clegg in 2015 after five years of coalition.
The made-for-TV election stunts may look bold, but Sir Ed’s plan has been cautious and incremental.
Nothing bold on Brexit, which was the signature of the party’s 2019 campaign. No pretence that Sir Ed could be prime minister after the election, as Jo Swinson pretended in 2019 – this is a campaign targeted in seats the party thinks it can win.
Instead we have a campaign of reassurance from a party that abandoned “equidistance” – holding Labour and Tory at similar distance which led to five years of coalition with the Tories until 2015 – and turning them into a purely anti-Tory force, more in tune with many activists’ inclinations.
Now the party could be about to quadruple its seats. This could put it on course to returning as the third biggest party in the Commons, regaining the crown from the ailing Scottish National Party, its biggest achievable goal for the 4 July election.
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Yet Sir Ed has brought the Lib Dems to this point while leaving unresolved some big questions about both the past and the future.
First, he simply refuses to deal with the past. Sir Ed was a minister and cabinet secretary in the coalition government all the way from 2010 to 2015.
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Can voters trust Lib Dems’ manifesto?
That means he was in the government that cut tens of billions from public services and squeezed the NHS – causing damage which his party at this election is now promising to fix.
But will he concede mistakes were made? I pushed him six times in an interview today over whether he would disown or endorse the £40bn of cuts announced by the coalition in 2010, and every time he sidestepped the question.
Political parties can make promises at election time but – rather like the Lib Dems and tuition fees in 2010 – these can be broken and the past can provide a better guide to post election behaviour.
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Having turned the Lib Dems into a Tory-fighting force, we are now just weeks away from the potential of a Tory wipeout.
What do the Lib Dems do then? What’s the impulse of the hordes of new Lib Dem MPs? Do they attack Sir Keir’s Labour – something Sir Ed has assiduously avoided doing to date? Or do they work with them?
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Davey refuses to say austerity was a mistake
I asked Sir Ed what would become of the 114-page fully costed manifesto, given a Labour landslide would render their influence minimal in the next parliament.
Sir Ed answered, perhaps a little implausibly, that a Labour government might take ideas on things like the NHS from his party’s manifesto, just as he claimed Gordon Brown did with Bank of England independence in 1997.
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The Battle for Number 10, a UK Election Leaders’ Special Event, will air from Grimsby on Sky News on Wednesday.
Let’s see – a Labour government led by Sir Keir would feel no political necessity to borrow from the Lib Dems. More likely relations between the two parties gradually deteriorate.
None of this matters for now. Sir Ed has managed to combine his own unique personal story about caring for his disabled son now and his dying mother as a teenager, with a manifesto designed to appeal to one-time Tories.
This could prove a popular tactic on 4 July. He probably thinks what comes next can wait.
Conservative Senedd member Laura Anne Jones has joined Reform UK, the party has announced.
The announcement of the party’s first member of the Senedd was made on Tuesday at the Royal Welsh Show in Builth Wells, Powys.
The annual event is Europe’s largest agricultural show and attracts thousands of visitors every year.
Laura Anne Jones was initially a member of the Senedd for the South Wales East region between 2003 and 2007, before returning in 2020.
She is the second high-profile defection from the Conservative party, after former cabinet minister David Jones joined the party earlier this month.
Image: (L-R) Nigel Farage, David Jones and Laura Anne Jones at the news conference
Reform leader Nigel Farage said the latest defection was a “big step forward for Reform UK in Wales”.
Speaking at the news conference, Ms Jones said she had been a member of the Conservative party for for 31 years but that the party was now “unrecognisable to [her]”.
She said the Conservative Party “wasn’t the party that [she] joined over three decades ago” and that she could “no longer justify” party policy on the doorstep.
Ms Jones said Wales was “a complete mess” and that she now wanted to be “part of the solution not the problem”.
Reform is still without a leader in Wales, but Ms Jones did not rule herself out of the running for that position.
The defection comes with less than a year to go until the Senedd election, when voters in Wales will elect 96 members to the Welsh parliament for the first time – an increase of more than 50%.
Recent opinion polls have shown Reform UK and Plaid Cymru vying for pole position, with Labour in third and the Conservatives in fourth.
Ms Jones said she had not notified the Conservative Party of her defection before the announcement.
The party’s Senedd leader Darren Millar said he was “disappointed” with the announcement and that Conservative members and voters would feel “very let down by her announcement”.
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.
A former City worker is facing jail after he was found guilty of volunteering to spy for the Russians when he ran out of money in retirement.
Howard Phillips, 65, from Harlow, Essex, handed over the home address and landline for Grant Shapps, his local MP and then the defence secretary, during an undercover sting by MI5.
He told two officers posing as Russian agents he wanted to work in intelligence to avoid a “nine-to-five office” job after clearing out his savings by retiring at 59.
Image: Howard Phillips. Pic: Metropolitan Police
Phillips was found guilty of assisting what he believed to be Russian intelligence service agents, in breach of the National Security Act.
Dressed in a dark suit and dark coloured tie, he shook his head and looked around the court as he was found unanimously guilty by a jury at Winchester Crown Court after four hours of deliberation.
He now faces a lengthy jail term after offering to provide logistical support for Russian agents across the world in the increasingly desperate hope it would bail him out of his money worries.
Jocelyn Ledward KC, prosecuting, said Phillips was “struggling financially” and seeking “interesting and exciting work for easy money”.
Phillips, who is divorced with four grown-up children, became an insolvency practitioner in 1986 and had worked for Bond Partners in the City. He had become self-employed in 2011 and then worked as a manager in the charity sector before moving to GDPR compliance in “semi-retirement” in 2018.
Phillips explained that he sent out hundreds of CVs and applied online, adding: “I was avidly seeking employment but none was forthcoming.”
He filled in an online application form for MI5 in 2014 and again in 2024, because he “wanted to act in the service of my country”, but found that they required a university degree.
Phillips began writing a series of increasingly fanciful letters to Conservative Party ministers, offering his advice on how to influence the electorate, and to Hollywood actors – including Tom Cruise and Jennifer Aniston – asking to meet and talk about how to get into the movie business.
However, his financial situation was “decreasing rapidly”. He had used up all the money he had gained from the sale of a property. He had a balance of £25,126.09 in his bank accounts on April 29 2023 but by May 20 2024 it had dropped to £374.48 after using his savings to pay off Santander credit card bills.
Image: Phillips as he was arrested. Pic: Metropolitan Police
Phillips was filmed from multiple angles in an elaborate undercover operation which saw two MI5 agents adopting Russian accents to pose as agents of the SVR, Russia’s foreign intelligence agency, even though he had never heard of the organisation.
On 15 March last year, Phillips volunteered his services to the Russians in a letter intercepted by MI5.
In messages on WhatsApp, he claimed his name was David Marshall and said he was a “fully pledged British citizen, born in the UK to British parents and British grandparents etc” and had “several situations of utmost benefit to convey and offer”.
He added that he was “semi-retired” but had “connections in high places”.
Phillips was asked if he could prepare a document on a USB stick that would explain how he could assist Russian intelligence and deliver it to London on 4 April last year.
Jurors were played a covert recording of a meeting between Phillips and “Sasha” and “Dima” – two undercover MI5 officers – at the London Bridge Hotel on 26 April in which he told the men he wanted to work for Russia in exchange for financial independence from the UK.
He was arrested by plain-clothed officers in a coffee shop near King’s Cross station on 16 May last year.
Phillips denied materially assisting a foreign intelligence service to carry out UK-related activities under the National Security Act 2023.
A nine-year-old girl was shot in the head by a motorbike-riding gunman in east London in an attempted assassination of rival gang members, a court has heard.
Ali Nasser, 43, Kenan Aydogdu, 45, and Mustafa Kiziltam, 38 – who are linked to the Hackney Turks – were sat outside the busy Evin restaurant on Kingsland High Street, Hackney, when six shots were fired at the group, a jury was told.
They were all wounded, but one of the stray bullets hit the girl, who was sitting at a table with her family members on the evening of 29 May last year, and lodged in her brain, the Old Bailey heard.
All of the victims survived the attack – which was caught on CCTV in footage described as “distressing to watch”.
But the girl needed operations to rebuild her skull with titanium and was in hospital for three months before being allowed to go home. She will have physical and cognitive difficulties for the rest of her life.
Prosecutors say the shooting was part of an ongoing dispute between the Tottenham Turks and the Hackney Turks, also known as the Bombacilars (Bombers), whose “intense rivalry” over more than a decade has seen “extreme violence” used between them.
James Mulholland KC told a jury that members of the Tottenham Turks had ordered the “planned assassination of members of a rival gang”.
Javon Riley, 33, of Farnborough, Hampshire, is on trial at the Old Bailey, where he denies four charges of attempted murder and an alternative charge of causing grievous bodily harm with intent relating to the girl, who cannot be identified because of her age.
Prosecutors say Riley wasn’t a member of the Tottenham Turks but was linked to them and knew they were behind the shooting.
The gunman, who arrived on the scene on an “extremely powerful” red Ducati Monster, has not been arrested, but Riley is said to have played “a key role” before, during and after the alleged attempted murders.
He is alleged to have been “an integral part” of the plan, as he carried out reconnaissance and carried the gunman away from the scene.
The court heard that after the shooting, the gunman rode the motorbike to a nearby street where Riley was waiting in a stolen Nissan Juke on false plates before they “calmly” headed to north London before transferring into Riley’s Range Rover.
Vehicles used in the alleged plot were later torched, the court heard.
Mr Mulholland said in covert recordings in the months after the shooting, Riley talked about Izzet Eren, who is linked to the Tottenham Turks and was shot in Moldova on 10 July last year in what is believed to have been a revenge attack.
He also discussed a man called “Kem”, who prosecutors say is Kemal Eren, “one of those closely involved in the Tottenham Turks”.
“It is clear from all the evidence that Javon Riley knew this was a job for individuals connected with Tottenham Turks, the level of violence required and the aim was to kill those seated outside the restaurant and played an integral part in setting the scene so that this came about,” said Mr Mulholland.
“The only reason someone did not die that night was luck and had nothing to do with Mr Riley.”