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As Rishi Sunak was winding up his manifesto launch at metaphor-heavy Silverstone race track, the scale of the prime minister’s task in the remainder of the election campaign was becoming clear.

According to the exclusive Sky News-YouGov poll, Sunak needs to go through the gears at once or he’s in danger of dropping to the bottom step of the podium.

He was speaking hours before it emerged voting intention for the Conservatives had dropped to the joint lowest in this parliament – 18% – now putting Sunak’s party just one point ahead of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK on 17%, tantalisingly close to a crossover.

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A full third of 2019 Tory voters – the cohort that endorsed Boris Johnson last time – now say they will switch to Reform UK, while the proportion who think Sunak will be a good prime minister is down two points – to 22% – in the last fortnight. That last figure is possibly a casualty of the PM’s decision to leave D-Day commemorations early – and could conceivably have been worse.

The notable drop in Labour’s vote – three points to 38% – will do little to cheer a Tory party in the doldrums, consumed with their own existential angst. This is because the switch seems to match the Lib Dems jumping up four point to 15%. Much of the YouGov fieldwork was done when the Lib Dem manifesto was receiving peak coverage.

The question is whether the Tory manifesto launch could possibly have provided anything new with which to turn things around, from a position as dire as any Conservative can remember in living memory.

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What is in the Conservative Party manifesto?

Sunak has thrown everything at this manifesto: it’s 72 pages long, with nearly £20bn worth of tax and spending announcements.

There are pledges designed to appease and appeal to just about every demographic, from 2p off national insurance for working families, to accelerated national insurance abolition for the self-employed, to tax cuts for pensions, to help for first-time buyers and tax breaks for wealthier parents. This is to be paid for, Sunak said, in large part by yet more promises to pare back welfare, squeeze the public sector and more anti-avoidance measures.

It is a “kitchen sink” manifesto for the Tories. But it is not the first “kitchen sink” manifesto in recent memory.

Sir Keir Starmer boldly compared Sunak’s offering with that of Jeremy Corbyn – stuffed with policies that seem, and poll as, popular but are not sustainably affordable as an overall package.

The Labour leader was, of course, displaying the chutzpah of a man 20 points ahead in the polls by casually disowning a manifesto he himself stood on five years ago.

Nevertheless, his political purpose by making this point is two-fold: firstly, he is attempting to needle away further at the Conservatives’ claim of economic credibility, while also reminding people that manifestos stacked with popular policies do not automatically win elections.

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PM launches party manifesto

But despite having individually popular ideas, the prime minister was unable to deliver perhaps the biggest thing Tory MPs might have wanted – a promise to reduce the overall tax burden in the next parliament.

It is the tax burden that hangs around the neck of a party proud of its low tax heritage, at an event at which Sunak had the audacity to invoke Nigel Lawson, the 1980s tax-cutting chancellor.

Sunak cannot bring it down. Yet he is unwilling to be completely automatically transparent over this point.

Rishi Sunak poses with supporters before the launch of the Conservative Party General Election manifesto.
Pic: PA
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Rishi Sunak with wife Akshata Murty and supporters at the launch. Pic: PA

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Examine carefully this painful exchange in the questions from the media afterwards, when Sunak’s sleight of hand was noticeable.

He was asked by the Daily Mail: “Can you today guarantee that if you get in, overall taxes will be lower by the time you finish?”

To this, Sunak replied: “Because of the measures that are announced in the manifesto and you can see that document afterwards, the tax burden will be about one percentage point lower in every single year compared to the forecast that you saw at the spring budget a few months ago that Jeremy (Hunt, the chancellor) outlined.”

This answer is deliberately elliptical, because the truth is hard: more people are dragged into higher tax bands because of frozen thresholds, designed to pay back some of the debt incurred in COVID.

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As my colleague Ed Conway, Sky’s economics editor, says, even after the tax cuts in this manifesto, everyone will still be paying higher taxes in 2028-29 than we are today.

So the answer to the Daily Mail is yes – the tax burden will be higher, albeit not as high as previously planned.

Sunak’s answer, while true, made it sound like the picture is better than it is when it comes to tax – and it’s a complication for a Tory leader trying to make tax the key dividing line with his Labour opposition in this election.

As Beth Rigby pointed out, a recent poll shows that only one in six voters believe Sunak won’t raise their taxes, or raise major taxes, compared with one in four for Labour – and she asked him whether this means he has “blown it”.

“I’m not afraid to do things that are difficult,” he pleaded in response. It’s not clear many on his own side believe this argument will wash with the public at this late stage in the political cycle.

Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer will face questions from Beth Rigby and members of the public during Sky News’ special leaders’ event on Wednesday.

The programme airs live from Grimsby from 7pm on Sky News – Freeview channel 233, Sky 501, Virgin 603, BT 313 – and streaming on the Sky News website, app and across social channels. It is also available to watch on Sky Showcase.

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Fourteen children arrested on suspicion of manslaughter over Gateshead fire released on bail

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Fourteen children arrested on suspicion of manslaughter over Gateshead fire released on bail

All 14 children arrested on suspicion of manslaughter after a boy died in a fire have been released on police bail, officers said.

Layton Carr, 14, was found dead near the site of a fire at Fairfield industrial park in the Bill Quay area of Gateshead on Friday.

Northumbria Police said on Saturday that they had arrested 11 boys and three girls in connection with the incident.

In an update on Sunday, a Northumbria Police spokesman said: “All those arrested have since been released on police bail pending further inquiries.”

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Teenager dies in industrial estate fire

Firefighters raced to the industrial site shortly after 8pm on Friday, putting out the blaze a short time later.

Police then issued an appeal for Carr, who was believed to be in the area at that time.

In a statement on Saturday, the force said that “sadly, following searches, a body believed to be that of 14-year-old Layton Carr was located deceased inside the building”.

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David Thompson, headteacher of Hebburn Comprehensive School, where Layton was a pupil, said the school community was “heartbroken”.

Mr Thompson described him as a “valued and much-loved member of Year 9” and said he would be “greatly missed by everyone”.

He added that the school’s “sincere condolences” were with Layton’s family and that the community would “rally together to support one another through this tragedy”.

A fundraising page on GoFundMe has been set up to help Layton’s mother pay for funeral costs.

Pic: Gofundme
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Pic: Gofundme

Organiser Stephanie Simpson said: “The last thing Georgia needs to stress trying to pay for a funeral for her Boy Any donations will help thank you.”

One tribute in a Facebook post read: “Can’t believe I’m writing this my nephew RIP Layton 💔 forever 14 you’ll be a massive miss, thinking of my sister and 2 beautiful nieces right now.”

Detective Chief Inspector Louise Jenkins, of Northumbria Police, also said: “This is an extremely tragic incident where a boy has sadly lost his life.”

She added that the force’s “thoughts are with Layton’s family as they begin to attempt to process the loss of their loved one”.

They are working to establish “the full circumstances surrounding the incident” and officers will be in the area to “offer reassurance to the public”, she added.

A cordon remains in place at the site while police carry out enquiries.

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Football bodies could be forced to pay towards brain injury care costs of ex-players

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Football bodies could be forced to pay towards brain injury care costs of ex-players

Football bodies could be forced to pay towards the care costs of ex-players who have been diagnosed with brain conditions, under proposals set to be considered by MPs.

Campaigners are drafting amendments to the Football Governance Bill, which would treat conditions caused by heading balls as an “industrial injuries issue”.

The proposals seek to require the football industry to provide the necessary financial support.

Campaigners say existing support is not fit for purpose, including the Brain Health Fund which was set up with an initial £1m by the Professional Footballers’ Association (PFA), supported by the Premier League.

But the Premier League said the fund has supported 121 families with at-home adaptations and care home fees.

From England‘s 1966 World Cup-winning team, both Jack and Bobby Charlton died with dementia, as did Martin Peters, Ray Wilson and Nobby Stiles.

Neil Ruddock speaks to Sky's Rob Harris outside parliament
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Neil Ruddock speaks to Sky’s Rob Harris outside parliament

Ex-players, including former Liverpool defender Neil Ruddock, went to parliament last week to lobby MPs.

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Ruddock told Sky News he had joined campaigners “for the families who’ve gone through hell”.

“A professional footballer, greatest job in the world, but no one knew the dangers, and that’s scary,” he said.

“Every time someone heads a ball it’s got to be dangerous to you. You know, I used to head 100 balls a day in training. I didn’t realise that might affect my future.”

A study co-funded by the PFA and the Football Association (FA) in 2019 found footballers were three and a half times more likely to die of a neurodegenerative disease than members of the public of the same age.

‘In denial’

Among those calling on football authorities to contribute towards the care costs of ex-players who have gone on to develop conditions such as Alzheimer’s and dementia is Labour MP Chris Evans.

Mr Evans, who represents Caerphilly in South Wales, hopes to amend the Bill to establish a care and financial support scheme for ex-footballers and told a recent event in parliament that affected ex-players “deserve to be compensated”.

Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, who helped to draft the amendment, said the game was “in denial about the whole thing”.

Mr Burnham called for it to be seen as “an industrial injuries issue in the same way with mining”.

In January, David Beckham lent his support to calls for greater support for footballers affected by dementia.

One of the amendments says that “the industry rather than the public should bear the financial burden”.

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A spokesperson for the FA said it was taking a “leading role in reviewing and improving the safety of our game” and that it had “already taken many proactive steps to review and address potential risk factors”.

An English Football League spokesperson said it was “working closely with other football bodies” to ensure both professional and grassroots football are “as safe as it can be”.

The PFA and Premier League declined to comment.

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Terror arrests came in context of raised warnings about Iran, with ongoing chaos in its own backyard

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Terror arrests came in context of raised warnings about Iran, with ongoing chaos in its own backyard

These are two separate and unrelated investigations by counter-terror officers.

But the common thread is nationality – seven out of the eight people arrested are Iranian.

And that comes in the context of increased warnings from government and the security services about Iranian activity on British soil.

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Counter terror officers raid property

Last year, the director general of MI5, Ken McCallum, said his organisation and police had responded to 20 Iran-backed plots presenting potentially lethal threats to British citizens and UK residents since January 2022.

He linked that increase to the ongoing situation in Iran’s own backyard.

“As events unfold in the Middle East, we will give our fullest attention to the risk of an increase in – or a broadening of – Iranian state aggression in the UK,” he said.

The implication is that even as Iran grapples with a rapidly changing situation in its own region, having seen its proxies, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, decimated and itself coming under Israeli attack, it may seek avenues further abroad.

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The government reiterated this warning only a few weeks ago, with security minister Dan Jarvis addressing parliament.

“The threat from Iran sits in a wider context of the growing, diversifying and evolving threat that the UK faces from malign activity by a number of states,” Jarvis said.

“The threat from states has become increasingly interconnected in nature, blurring the lines between: domestic and international; online and offline; and states and their proxies.

“Turning specifically to Iran, the regime has become increasingly emboldened, asserting itself more aggressively to advance their objectives and undermine ours.”

Read more:
Anybody working for Iran in UK must register or face jail, government announces

As part of that address, Jarvis highlighted the National Security Act 2023, which “criminalises assisting a foreign intelligence service”, among other things.

So it was notable that this was the act used in one of this weekend’s investigations.

The suspects were detained under section 27 of the same act, which allows police to arrest those suspected of being “involved in foreign power threat activity”.

Those powers are apparently being put to use.

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