Rishi Sunak delivers ‘kitchen sink’ manifesto – but he was unable to promise biggest thing Conservative MPs want
As Rishi Sunak was winding up his manifesto launch at metaphor-heavy Silverstone race track, the scale of the prime minister’s task in the remainder of the election campaign was becoming clear.
According to the exclusive Sky News-YouGov poll, Sunak needs to go through the gears at once or he’s in danger of dropping to the bottom step of the podium.
He was speaking hours before it emerged voting intention for the Conservatives had dropped to the joint lowest in this parliament – 18% – now putting Sunak’s party just one point ahead of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK on 17%, tantalisingly close to a crossover.
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A full third of 2019 Tory voters – the cohort that endorsed Boris Johnson last time – now say they will switch to Reform UK, while the proportion who think Sunak will be a good prime minister is down two points – to 22% – in the last fortnight. That last figure is possibly a casualty of the PM’s decision to leave D-Day commemorations early – and could conceivably have been worse.
The notable drop in Labour’s vote – three points to 38% – will do little to cheer a Tory party in the doldrums, consumed with their own existential angst. This is because the switch seems to match the Lib Dems jumping up four point to 15%. Much of the YouGov fieldwork was done when the Lib Dem manifesto was receiving peak coverage.
The question is whether the Tory manifesto launch could possibly have provided anything new with which to turn things around, from a position as dire as any Conservative can remember in living memory.
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What is in the Conservative Party manifesto?
Sunak has thrown everything at this manifesto: it’s 72 pages long, with nearly £20bn worth of tax and spending announcements.
There are pledges designed to appease and appeal to just about every demographic, from 2p off national insurance for working families, to accelerated national insurance abolition for the self-employed, to tax cuts for pensions, to help for first-time buyers and tax breaks for wealthier parents. This is to be paid for, Sunak said, in large part by yet more promises to pare back welfare, squeeze the public sector and more anti-avoidance measures.
It is a “kitchen sink” manifesto for the Tories. But it is not the first “kitchen sink” manifesto in recent memory.
Sir Keir Starmer boldly compared Sunak’s offering with that of Jeremy Corbyn – stuffed with policies that seem, and poll as, popular but are not sustainably affordable as an overall package.
The Labour leader was, of course, displaying the chutzpah of a man 20 points ahead in the polls by casually disowning a manifesto he himself stood on five years ago.
Nevertheless, his political purpose by making this point is two-fold: firstly, he is attempting to needle away further at the Conservatives’ claim of economic credibility, while also reminding people that manifestos stacked with popular policies do not automatically win elections.
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What are the Tories and Lib Dems’ key pledges?
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PM launches party manifesto
But despite having individually popular ideas, the prime minister was unable to deliver perhaps the biggest thing Tory MPs might have wanted – a promise to reduce the overall tax burden in the next parliament.
It is the tax burden that hangs around the neck of a party proud of its low tax heritage, at an event at which Sunak had the audacity to invoke Nigel Lawson, the 1980s tax-cutting chancellor.
Sunak cannot bring it down. Yet he is unwilling to be completely automatically transparent over this point.
Rishi Sunak with wife Akshata Murty and supporters at the launch. Pic: PA
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Examine carefully this painful exchange in the questions from the media afterwards, when Sunak’s sleight of hand was noticeable.
He was asked by the Daily Mail: “Can you today guarantee that if you get in, overall taxes will be lower by the time you finish?”
To this, Sunak replied: “Because of the measures that are announced in the manifesto and you can see that document afterwards, the tax burden will be about one percentage point lower in every single year compared to the forecast that you saw at the spring budget a few months ago that Jeremy (Hunt, the chancellor) outlined.”
This answer is deliberately elliptical, because the truth is hard: more people are dragged into higher tax bands because of frozen thresholds, designed to pay back some of the debt incurred in COVID.
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As my colleague Ed Conway, Sky’s economics editor, says, even after the tax cuts in this manifesto, everyone will still be paying higher taxes in 2028-29 than we are today.
So the answer to the Daily Mail is yes – the tax burden will be higher, albeit not as high as previously planned.
Sunak’s answer, while true, made it sound like the picture is better than it is when it comes to tax – and it’s a complication for a Tory leader trying to make tax the key dividing line with his Labour opposition in this election.
As Beth Rigby pointed out, a recent poll shows that only one in six voters believe Sunak won’t raise their taxes, or raise major taxes, compared with one in four for Labour – and she asked him whether this means he has “blown it”.
“I’m not afraid to do things that are difficult,” he pleaded in response. It’s not clear many on his own side believe this argument will wash with the public at this late stage in the political cycle.
Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer will face questions from Beth Rigby and members of the public during Sky News’ special leaders’ event on Wednesday.
The programme airs live from Grimsby from 7pm on Sky News – Freeview channel 233, Sky 501, Virgin 603, BT 313 – and streaming on the Sky News website, app and across social channels. It is also available to watch on Sky Showcase.
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UK
Police investigating criminal offence after Daily Telegraph columnist ‘dumbfounded’ by social media post probe
Essex Police say they are investigating an alleged criminal offence of inciting racial hatred, after Daily Telegraph columnist Allison Pearson said she was “dumbfounded and upset” when officers knocked on her door last Sunday.
Ms Pearson revealed she was told she was being investigated over a year-old deleted post online.
She said she wasn’t informed which post had been reported, but suggested it could have been related to the 7 October attacks in Israel or pro-Palestine marches.
She claimed the officers told her she was being investigated for a NCHI (a none crime hate incident) an incident involving an act which is perceived to be motivated by hostility or prejudice towards persons with a particular characteristic, but is not illegal.
NCHI reports have long been controversial, with many citing free speech concerns, and Ms Pearson’s account of the police visit has led to widespread support from Conservatives and online commentators, including Tory leader Kemi Badenoch.
But an Essex Police spokesperson has told Sky News its investigation was never for an NCHI, and that the matter was always being treated as an investigation into an alleged criminal offence of inciting racial hatred.
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Speaking on her Planet Normal podcast on Wednesday, Ms Pearson said she found the visit “chilling”.
“I was dumbfounded, upset, it’s not very nice,” she said. “I was in my dressing gown on the step of the house, these two coppers were there just outside the door.
“There were people gathering for the Remembrance Day parade so there were people watching from the other side of the road.
“Whatever I did or didn’t tweet, if somebody found it offensive, that to me is still not a reason for two policemen to come to my house on a Sunday morning.
“You know, they don’t do that for burglars, do they? We know policing is under-resourced and they are unable to attend often quite serious crimes.
“This was the most extraordinary overreach and state intrusion into my private life and I don’t think I did anything wrong and I think their response was outrageous.”
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In a statement, Essex Police said: “Officers attended an address in Essex and invited a woman to come to a voluntary interview.
“They said it related to an investigation into an alleged offence of inciting racial hatred, linked to a post on social media.
“For clarity: a complaint of a possible criminal offence was made to the police and this is why we called; to arrange an interview.
“Everyone was polite and professional throughout the brief conversation.”
They said an officer told Ms Pearson: “It’s gone down as an incident or offence of potentially inciting racial hatred online. That would be the offence.”
Essex Police say they have complained to the Independent Press Standards Organisation (IPSO) over what they call “false reporting” regarding the ongoing investigation.
In an interview with The Telegraph published yesterday, Kemi Badenoch said police visiting a journalist over a social media post was “absolutely wrong” and that “we need to look at the laws around non-crime hate incidents”.
“There has been a long-running problem with people not taking free speech seriously,” she said.
She challenged the prime minister to review the laws, saying: “Keir Starmer says he is someone who believes in these things. Now he needs to actually show that he does believe it. All we’ve seen from him is the opposite.”
Ms Badenoch added: “We need to stop this behaviour of people wasting police time on trivial incidents because they don’t like something, as if they’re in a nursery.
“It’s like children reporting each other. And I think that in certain cases, the police do it because they’re afraid that if they don’t do it, they will also be accused of not taking these issues seriously.”
Essex Police said the officers went to the address to invite Ms Pearson to attend a voluntary interview as part of their investigation, which was passed to them by another force.
“The report relates to a social media post which was subsequently removed,” the statement read.
“An investigation is now being carried out under Section 17 of the Public Order Act.”
Essex Police also said they made attempts to contact Ms Pearson before the visit.
Other prominent Conservative voices such as Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Chris Philp have also leapt to Ms Pearson’s defence online, as has X owner Elon Musk, who quoted a post about the incident and said: “This needs to stop.”
Police commentator Graham Wettone told Sky News the police are “duty bound to investigate allegations of crime”.
“They’ve had an allegation of crime made there,” he said. “They will investigate it. If at the end of this they decide that no criminal offence has been committed – and we’re not at that stage yet – then it can still be recorded as a none crime hate incident.”
The police, he said, are duty bound to keep a record of none crime hate incidents.
“Parliament said they want the police to do this, to investigate and record incidents like this. So they are doing exactly what parliament and society asked them to do, and they are getting criticism for doing what people want.”
UK
Sir Keir Starmer vows to defend budget decisions ‘all day long’ as farmers slam ‘disrespectful’ PM
Sir Keir Starmer has said he will defend the decisions made in the budget “all day long” amid anger from farmers over inheritance tax changes.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced last month in her key speech that from April 2026, farms worth more than £1m will face an inheritance tax rate of 20%, rather than the standard 40% applied to other land and property.
The announcement has sparked anger among farmers who argue this will mean higher food prices, lower food production and having to sell off land to pay for the tax.
Sir Keir defended the budget as he gave his first speech as prime minister at the Welsh Labour conference in Llandudno, North Wales, where farmers have been holding a tractor protest outside.
Sir Keir admitted: “We’ve taken some extremely tough decisions on tax.”
He said: “I will defend facing up to the harsh light of fiscal reality. I will defend the tough decisions that were necessary to stabilise our economy.
“And I will defend protecting the payslips of working people, fixing the foundations of our economy, and investing in the future of Britain and the future of Wales. Finally, turning the page on austerity once and for all.”
He also said the budget allocation for Wales was a “record figure” – some £21bn for next year – an extra £1.7bn through the Barnett Formula, as he hailed a “path of change” with Labour governments in Wales and Westminster.
And he confirmed a £160m investment zone in Wrexham and Flintshire will be going live in 2025.
‘PM should have addressed the protesters’
Among the hundreds of farmers demonstrating was Gareth Wyn Jones, who told Sky News it was “disrespectful” that the prime minister did not mention farmers in his speech.
He said “so many people have come here to air their frustrations. He (Starmer) had an opportunity to address the crowd. Even if he was booed he should have been man enough to come out and talk to the people”.
He said farmers planned to deliver Sir Keir a letter which begins with “don’t bite the hand that feeds you”.
Farmers’ tractor protest outside the Welsh Labour conference in Llandudno, North Wales
Mr Wyn Jones told Sky News the government was “destroying” an industry that was already struggling.
“They’re destroying an industry that’s already on its knees and struggling, absolutely struggling, mentally, emotionally and physically. We need government support not more hindrance so we can produce food to feed the nation.”
He said inheritance tax changes will result in farmers increasing the price of food: “The poorer people in society aren’t going to be able to afford good, healthy, nutritious British food, so we have to push this to government for them to understand that enough is enough, the farmers can’t take any more of what they’re throwing at us.”
Mr Wyn Jones disputed the government’s estimation that only 500 farming estates in the UK will be affected by the inheritance tax changes.
“Look, a lot of farmers in this country are in their 70s and 80s, they haven’t handed their farms down because that’s the way it’s always been, they’ve always known there was never going to be inheritance tax.”
On Friday, Sir Keir addressed farmers’ concerns, saying: “I know some farmers are anxious about the inheritance tax rules that we brought in two weeks ago.
“What I would say about that is, once you add the £1m for the farmland to the £1m that is exempt for your spouse, for most couples with a farm wanting to hand on to their children, it’s £3m before anybody pays a penny in inheritance tax.”
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Welsh farmer Gareth Wyn Jones
Ministers said the move will not affect small farms and is aimed at targeting wealthy landowners who buy up farmland to avoid paying inheritance tax.
But analysis this week said a typical family farm would have to put 159% of annual profits into paying the new inheritance tax every year for a decade and could have to sell 20% of their land.
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The Country and Land Business Association (CLA), which represents owners of rural land, property and businesses in England and Wales, found a typical 200-acre farm owned by one person with an expected profit of £27,300 would face a £435,000 inheritance tax bill.
The plan says families can spread the inheritance tax payments over 10 years, but the CLA found this would require an average farm to allocate 159% of its profits each year for a decade.
To pay that, successors could be forced to sell 20% of their land, the analysis found.
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