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As Rishi Sunak was winding up his manifesto launch at metaphor-heavy Silverstone race track, the scale of the prime minister’s task in the remainder of the election campaign was becoming clear.

According to the exclusive Sky News-YouGov poll, Sunak needs to go through the gears at once or he’s in danger of dropping to the bottom step of the podium.

He was speaking hours before it emerged voting intention for the Conservatives had dropped to the joint lowest in this parliament – 18% – now putting Sunak’s party just one point ahead of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK on 17%, tantalisingly close to a crossover.

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A full third of 2019 Tory voters – the cohort that endorsed Boris Johnson last time – now say they will switch to Reform UK, while the proportion who think Sunak will be a good prime minister is down two points – to 22% – in the last fortnight. That last figure is possibly a casualty of the PM’s decision to leave D-Day commemorations early – and could conceivably have been worse.

The notable drop in Labour’s vote – three points to 38% – will do little to cheer a Tory party in the doldrums, consumed with their own existential angst. This is because the switch seems to match the Lib Dems jumping up four point to 15%. Much of the YouGov fieldwork was done when the Lib Dem manifesto was receiving peak coverage.

The question is whether the Tory manifesto launch could possibly have provided anything new with which to turn things around, from a position as dire as any Conservative can remember in living memory.

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What is in the Conservative Party manifesto?

Sunak has thrown everything at this manifesto: it’s 72 pages long, with nearly £20bn worth of tax and spending announcements.

There are pledges designed to appease and appeal to just about every demographic, from 2p off national insurance for working families, to accelerated national insurance abolition for the self-employed, to tax cuts for pensions, to help for first-time buyers and tax breaks for wealthier parents. This is to be paid for, Sunak said, in large part by yet more promises to pare back welfare, squeeze the public sector and more anti-avoidance measures.

It is a “kitchen sink” manifesto for the Tories. But it is not the first “kitchen sink” manifesto in recent memory.

Sir Keir Starmer boldly compared Sunak’s offering with that of Jeremy Corbyn – stuffed with policies that seem, and poll as, popular but are not sustainably affordable as an overall package.

The Labour leader was, of course, displaying the chutzpah of a man 20 points ahead in the polls by casually disowning a manifesto he himself stood on five years ago.

Nevertheless, his political purpose by making this point is two-fold: firstly, he is attempting to needle away further at the Conservatives’ claim of economic credibility, while also reminding people that manifestos stacked with popular policies do not automatically win elections.

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What are the Tories and Lib Dems’ key pledges?

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PM launches party manifesto

But despite having individually popular ideas, the prime minister was unable to deliver perhaps the biggest thing Tory MPs might have wanted – a promise to reduce the overall tax burden in the next parliament.

It is the tax burden that hangs around the neck of a party proud of its low tax heritage, at an event at which Sunak had the audacity to invoke Nigel Lawson, the 1980s tax-cutting chancellor.

Sunak cannot bring it down. Yet he is unwilling to be completely automatically transparent over this point.

Rishi Sunak poses with supporters before the launch of the Conservative Party General Election manifesto.
Pic: PA
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Rishi Sunak with wife Akshata Murty and supporters at the launch. Pic: PA

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Examine carefully this painful exchange in the questions from the media afterwards, when Sunak’s sleight of hand was noticeable.

He was asked by the Daily Mail: “Can you today guarantee that if you get in, overall taxes will be lower by the time you finish?”

To this, Sunak replied: “Because of the measures that are announced in the manifesto and you can see that document afterwards, the tax burden will be about one percentage point lower in every single year compared to the forecast that you saw at the spring budget a few months ago that Jeremy (Hunt, the chancellor) outlined.”

This answer is deliberately elliptical, because the truth is hard: more people are dragged into higher tax bands because of frozen thresholds, designed to pay back some of the debt incurred in COVID.

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As my colleague Ed Conway, Sky’s economics editor, says, even after the tax cuts in this manifesto, everyone will still be paying higher taxes in 2028-29 than we are today.

So the answer to the Daily Mail is yes – the tax burden will be higher, albeit not as high as previously planned.

Sunak’s answer, while true, made it sound like the picture is better than it is when it comes to tax – and it’s a complication for a Tory leader trying to make tax the key dividing line with his Labour opposition in this election.

As Beth Rigby pointed out, a recent poll shows that only one in six voters believe Sunak won’t raise their taxes, or raise major taxes, compared with one in four for Labour – and she asked him whether this means he has “blown it”.

“I’m not afraid to do things that are difficult,” he pleaded in response. It’s not clear many on his own side believe this argument will wash with the public at this late stage in the political cycle.

Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer will face questions from Beth Rigby and members of the public during Sky News’ special leaders’ event on Wednesday.

The programme airs live from Grimsby from 7pm on Sky News – Freeview channel 233, Sky 501, Virgin 603, BT 313 – and streaming on the Sky News website, app and across social channels. It is also available to watch on Sky Showcase.

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Child Q: Two Met Police officers committed gross misconduct over strip search of 15-year-old schoolgirl

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Child Q: Two Met Police officers committed gross misconduct over strip search of 15-year-old schoolgirl

Two Metropolitan Police officers committed gross misconduct during the strip search of a 15-year-old schoolgirl wrongly suspected of possessing cannabis, a misconduct hearing has found.

PCs Kristina Linge, Victoria Wray, and Rafal Szmydynski conducted the search of the black girl, known as Child Q, with no appropriate adult present at a school in Hackney, east London, in 2020.

Scotland Yard apologised, and the Children’s Commissioner for England, Dame Rachel de Souza, described the case as “shocking” after details of the incident emerged in 2022.

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From March 2022 – Child Q: ‘Black girls should feel safe in school’

PCs Linge, Wray and Szmydynski suspected the girl was in possession of cannabis, but the police watchdog later determined no drugs were found in her bags or outer clothing.

At a police misconduct hearing in London today, Linge and Szmydytnski were found to have committed gross misconduct. They could potentially be dismissed when the sanctions are decided.

Wray was cleared of gross misconduct, but found to have committed misconduct.

The panel found she became involved in a “situation where the decision had been decided already”.

The case of Child Q drew outrage when it first came to light in March 2022 and sparked protests.

Crowds waved banners and placards reading "protect black kids" and "shame on you"
Protesters marched from Stoke Newington Police Station to Hackney Town Hall in London
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In March 2022 crowds waved banners and placards reading ‘protect black kids’ and ‘shame on you’

The officers had been accused of treating Child Q differently due to her race, but Commander Jason Prins, chair of the misconduct panel, said: “We do not draw any inference that race was an effective cause of this incident.”

The panel found concerns about drugs and potential gang involvement were initially raised by school staff.

“Like many cases where stop and search is used, here the subject of the search was identified to police officers by other professionals rather than being by officers in the street,” Commander Prins added.

He said the problem was with the decision to conduct the strip search in the first place, finding it was “unnecessary” and “disproportionate”.

“There should never have been a strip search in these circumstances,” he said, accepting Child Q found it “humiliating and degrading”.

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The panel did not find any officer breached professional behaviour standards relating to equality and diversity, or honesty and integrity.

During the misconduct case, the three officers gave evidence, and each said they were not influenced by subconscious bias.

Luke Ponte, for Linge, said they happened to be “three immigrant officers” who were “trying to do their best to their adopted country” as they were seeking to solve a problem.

Mr Ponte said: “These officers must not bear the entire weight of Child Q where there has been wider dysfunction as to how this came about.”

Breaches of the Met’s standards of professional behaviour found to amount to gross misconduct can lead to dismissal or a final written warning, according to the Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC).

A fourth officer will face a disciplinary meeting at a later date relating to no appropriate adult being present during the search. This is separate from this misconduct hearing, and it’s a lower level of discipline.

Commander Kevin Southworth, on behalf of the force, said in a statement after the verdict: “The experience of Child Q should never have happened and was truly regrettable.

“We have sincerely apologised to Child Q since this incident happened. Again, I am deeply sorry to Child Q and her family for the trauma that we caused her, and the damage this incident caused to the trust and confidence Black communities across London have in our officers.

“While the officers involved did not act correctly, we acknowledge there were organisational failings. Training to our officers around strip search and the type of search carried out on Child Q was inadequate, and our oversight of the power was also severely lacking.

“This left officers, often young in service or junior in rank, making difficult decisions in complex situations with little information, support or clear resources to help their decision-making.

“What happened to Child Q was a catalyst for change, both for the Met and for policing nationally.

“While we should not have needed an incident such as Child Q to check our approach, it has absolutely led us to improving our processes and significantly reducing the number of these types of searches carried out.

“It’s crucial we get this right to ensure the impact on young people is minimised as far as possible.

“Sadly, we know there are children in London being exploited to carry drugs and weapons for others as well as involved in criminality, so these types of searches have to remain within police powers. The work we have done since Child Q means we now have the right safeguards in place.”

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500 families in Oxford call for maternity unit to be investigated

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500 families in Oxford call for maternity unit to be investigated

Hours after giving birth, with her son rushed away to a high dependency unit, as she lay broken and bleeding, Morgan Joines overheard a midwife blaming her. 

Her son had been born with wet lung after an emergency and traumatic caesarean section.

“I overheard [the midwife] tell a student nurse I was the reason my son was ill, because I was too lazy to push,” she told Sky News.

“I was broken. I genuinely believed for ages afterwards that I had failed my son.

“I thought I was the reason he was ill.”

Her son was born at John Radcliffe Hospital in Oxford, part of the Oxford University’s Hospital Trust. Morgan is one of more than 500 families who say they have been harmed by maternity care at the Trust.

On Monday, the health secretary, Wes Streeting, announced a “rapid” national investigation into NHS maternity services.

A taskforce, chaired by Mr Streeting and made up of experts and bereaved families, will first investigate up to ten of the most concerning maternity and neonatal units.

And campaigners – calling themselves the Families Failed by OUH Maternity Services – are calling for Oxford to be on that initial list.

Have you been affected? Contact the Sky News health team at NHSStories@sky.uk.

‘I thought I was going to die’

The unit was rated “requires improvement” in its last inspection by the government’s watchdog, the Care Quality Commission, in April 2023.

Oxford University Hospitals NHS Trust has been rated "requires improvement" for its maternity services

The CQC flagged issues around maintaining patient dignity, and said medicines were not always safely stored and managed. The unit did not manage the control of infection consistently it said, and wards were not always kept clean.

One mum told the campaign group she thought she was going to die after being left alone while in labour and denied pain relief.

Another said she is reluctant to consider having another child and feels a “profound loss of trust in the NHS”.

Trust to meet campaign group

Yvonne Christley, Chief Nursing Officer at OUH, said she apologised “for not being able to respond in detail about individual patient cases”.

“We regret any instance where we fail to provide the service that women and their families should expect. When this happens, we make every effort to review individual cases to understand what went wrong and how we can improve.”

She said the trust “make every effort” to keep women and families informed of what action it has taken, and said it is committed to maintaining an open dialogue with community groups.

“The Trust has agreed to meet with the campaign group and is eager to collaborate with them to implement the necessary changes and restore confidence in our services. These meetings are currently being scheduled.”

Caesarean sections account for approximately 40% of all births at OUH.

A ‘degrading strip wash’

A few hours after Morgan’s son had been whisked away to another part of the hospital, a nurse tried to force her to take oramorph, a high strength painkiller, she said.

When she declined to take the drug, having previously had a bad reaction, she said staff “claimed I was being difficult”.

“[They said] to just take the meds and get it over and done with.”

Morgan Joines overheard a midwife blaming her for her son's condition when he was born
Image:
Morgan Joines overheard a midwife blaming her for her son’s condition when he was born

When Morgan was unable to get out of bed, she says the same nurse then gave her a “degrading” strip wash, without her consent.

The unit, she said, felt like it was against C-sections.

“Even though it was recommended by doctors that I had caesarean, it was medically necessary, I felt I should have done more to help him,” Morgan said.

Waiting eight hours for a C-section

When Kate* was 38 weeks pregnant with her third IVF baby, she was induced.

The doctors had tried to burst her waters, but realised her daughter was breech when the midwife felt her feet near the bottom of the birth canal, telling her: “I’m glad those didn’t break, I think I just felt a foot.”

At 11pm Kate reluctantly agreed to a C-section, but was told it was “safer to wait until the light of day” to go down to theatre.

She was sent away to an observation area experiencing intense contractions for more than six hours. In those hours, she said she was abandoned without pain relief and was bleeding.

“I felt so alone in the dead of night. My husband had been sent home, and I just wanted someone to talk to, someone to help me.

“I was in so much pain labouring but the midwife made me feel like a hypochondriac.”

CQC safety ratings

She said the situation was escalating, she was becoming dehydrated, and her daughter’s heartrate was climbing, yet no one intervened.

A registrar who began his shift at 7am, examined her and rushed her immediately to theatre.

At this point she was 9cm dilated and the registrar was “shouting at me, telling me not to push.”

Kate’s daughter was her third IVF pregnancy, and she became emotional when she talked about what might have happened, had that registrar not examined her so quickly in the morning.

“They gambled with her life,” she said.

“If my waters had broken and that registrar wasn’t there, she would have started to come with her feet first. Both my boys had shot out, so I could be talking now as a mum who lost her child.

“It didn’t need to even get to that point.

“I should have had my C-section five hours earlier.”

A chart showing the ongoing independent investigations into maternity care - starting with Morecambe Bay in 2015 and ending with Nottingham

After she had given birth, she was left “in a pool of my own blood, just covered in blood” and had to pull herself out of bed to clean up.

She said she joined the campaign in the hopes women will be listened to in the future and not have to endure what she did.

‘I can’t get my baby out’

Annika Weldon had three miscarriages before giving birth to her son.

“I remember lying on the ward, screaming in pain and none of the other ladies around me were screaming like I was,” she said.

“It didn’t feel right, obviously when you go into labour you expect you are going to be in pain, but I just knew there was something not right.”

The midwife who checked her when she was in active labour could not tell her if she was 1cm or 10cm dilated, she said.

“We spent 45 minutes trying to get my baby out but this midwife that I was with was just so uncaring, she didn’t really explain what I should be doing.”

Annika Weldon miscarried three times before giving birth to her son
Image:
Annika Weldon miscarried three times before giving birth to her son

She had said early in the pregnancy she told doctors she wanted a C-section and “was told I couldn’t have one”.

“I kind of accepted that unless it was an emergency situation, I wouldn’t be able to have one but then in that moment I was like, I don’t know what else I can do here. I feel completely exhausted; I can’t get my baby out.

“I was just so tired and exhausted.”

Her son was born not breathing and she was haemorrhaging blood.

She was taken to emergency surgery and the last thing she remembers before waking up in the ward is throwing up in her hair.

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Maternity services investigated

She wasn’t told until much later the extent of her blood loss (2.5L) when she was struggling to pick up her own baby: “When I asked for help, I was made to feel like an inconvenience.”

‘OUH is particularly bad’

For Kim Thomas, co-founder of Families Failed by OUH Maternity Services and CEO of the Birth Trauma Association, these stories are nothing new.

But Oxford University Hospitals Trust is “particularly bad”, she says.

“They seem to have this incredibly arrogant attitude. They won’t take criticism.

Kim Thomas, from the Birth Trauma Association
Image:
Kim Thomas, from the Birth Trauma Association

“Women who complain are routinely dismissed. There’s a failure to learn from mistakes.”

She says OUH also has “poor postnatal care”: “Dirty wards, blood on the floor, women left in their own blood, women not helped.”

Yvonne Christley, from OUH, said: “We are never complacent and welcome all feedback, whether positive or negative, as we learn from both.”

A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said: “Too many families have been devastated by serious failings in NHS maternity and neonatal care.

“They deserve swift answers, and urgent action is essential to prevent future tragedies.”

They said the government was “immensely grateful” to families for sharing their experiences.

“[We] will work closely with families on this journey to help ensure no parent or baby is ever let down again.”

The Oxford campaign group is growing daily, with more like Kate, Morgan and Annika joining the ranks of those calling for change.

And each day that passes without answers is a reminder of the trauma they endured.

“It still hurts to look back on. It’s taken a while for me to stop blaming myself, but it doesn’t get easier,” Morgan said.

*Some names have been changed.

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Three people taken to hospital after double-decker bus carrying students crashes into river in Hampshire

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Three people taken to hospital after double-decker bus carrying students crashes into river in Hampshire

Three people have been taken to hospital after a double-decker bus carrying sixth form students left the road and ended up in a river in Hampshire.

Emergency services were called to Bishopstoke Road, Eastleigh, at 10.07am on Thursday after the Bluestar bus left the road.

Three “high-priority” patients were taken to hospital – and 14 people were treated at the scene with less serious injuries.

The bus was carrying students from Barton Peveril Sixth Form College in Eastleigh.

A South Central Ambulance Service spokesman said it scrambled two helicopters and five ambulances to the scene.

The spokesman said: “We have sent multiple units to the incident including five ambulances, two helicopters, and specialist response units.

“We’re continuing to support and assess patients on scene. All patients have been removed from the bus. Three high priority patients are being taken to hospital. Around 14 with less serious injuries are being treated on scene.”

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The college posted on Facebook that an incident centre had been set up for parents and it was “working closely” with police.

It continued: “We ask that people do not attend the actual scene. For concerned parents, an incident centre has been established at The Hub at Bishopstoke.

“An officer and college staff will be available at The Hub to provide updates and address any questions you may have.”

A Hampshire Constabulary spokesman said: “We are currently dealing with an incident on Bishopstoke Road in Eastleigh, after College Bus 607 for Barton Peveril students left the carriageway into a river.

“Emergency services are in attendance and the road has been closed so please avoid the area.

“It is anticipated the road may be closed for up to 12 hours for investigation and recovery work.

“Everyone on the bus has been accounted for and all injured persons are being treated by the ambulance service.”

A Hampshire and Isle of Wight Fire and Rescue Service spokesman said: “We are on scene of an RTC involving one double decker bus that went off the road in Bishopstoke, Eastleigh.

“Fire crews from Eastleigh, St Mary’s, Redbridge, Hightown and Portchester are in attendance alongside emergency service colleagues.

“People are asked to avoid the area to help emergency services deal with this incident.”

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Richard Tyldsley, Bluestar general manager, said: “One of our buses, carrying students to Barton Peveril College, was involved in an incident earlier this morning in Bishopstoke Road, Eastleigh.

“Reports suggest the bus left the highway and came to rest in a shallow river.

“There were 19 passengers on-board at the time. Our driver and at least two of the passengers have confirmed injuries, and we are awaiting further updates on the status of others on-board.

“We do not currently have full details of their injuries and are following their progress closely.

“Our thoughts are with everybody involved, and we wish those who were injured a full and speedy recovery.

“At this time, we do not know the circumstances behind this incident and are carrying out an immediate investigation. We are also assisting the police as they carry out their own inquiries.”

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