In recent years, Week 9 of the college football season has been good at shutting down fun upstart stories — or at least severely wounding them.

Think of unranked Wisconsin pummeling No. 9 Iowa, Mississippi State upsetting No. 12 Kentucky and Michigan State upending No. 6 Michigan in 2021. Or unranked Louisville upsetting No. 10 Wake Forest in 2022. Or Oregon blowing out No. 13 Utah in 2023 and No. 20 Illinois in 2024. Or Texas finishing off last season’s Diego Pavia-and-Vanderbilt episode. Before we get to November, where nearly everything we remember from a given season happens, we evidently have to declutter a bit.

Maybe that says foreboding things this week about Texas A&M, with its highest poll ranking in 30 years, playing a desperate LSU in Baton Rouge. Or an unbeaten BYU team playing at Iowa State. But how do the college football gods properly declutter this season? Who’s the upstart that falls when No. 10 Vanderbilt hosts No. 15 Missouri? How does an ACC race with five to seven contenders, none of whom were the preseason favorites, get cleaned up?

The 2025 season has broken containment, and as we careen toward November, let’s see if it’s even possible for it to start making sense. Here’s everything you need to follow in a cluttered Week 9.

Another huge SEC tripleheader

Though there’s a chance the SEC race gives us another Alabama-Georgia conference title game, I still believe we might have a major plot twist or two. Week 9 will help us figure out who might benefit from that plot twist, as the league again gives us a tripleheader of interesting matchups.

No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 20 LSU (7:30 p.m., ABC)

Tiger Stadium is typically an absolute cauldron at night; the home team has won eight straight in this series (six by multiple scores), and LSU is desperate after losses at Ole Miss and Vanderbilt. A&M coach Mike Elko’s most important task might be keeping his unbeaten Aggies dialed in amid an early sea of noise and emotion.

The next task will be scoring points. The Aggies have done plenty of that this season, but LSU ranks sixth in defensive SP+ and has yet to allow more than 10 points at home. The Tigers are better against the pass than the run, which could be an issue — even without the injured Le’Veon Moss, A&M averaged 6.2 yards per carry against Arkansas last week. But on third-and-3 or more, Marcel Reed and the Aggies are converting just 23.5% of the time, 129th nationally. Tiger Stadium can get awfully loud on third down.

LSU’s offense is showing signs of improvement. Even with leading receiver Aaron Anderson limited, the Tigers averaged 6.7 yards per play against South Carolina and Vanderbilt, though red zone failures kept the point totals tamped down. Tight end Trey’Dez Green is becoming a matchup nightmare, and LSU ran the ball well for once against Vanderbilt. If Garrett Nussmeier can complete even a couple of downfield passes, this becomes a very dangerous team. Unfortunately, we’re still waiting on that.

On passes thrown at least 25 yards downfield, Nussmeier is a shocking 1-for-16 this season. If you can’t create easy points from big plays, and you stink in the red zone, it becomes awfully difficult to score touchdowns.

A&M is No. 3 in the country, but the stakes are higher for the Tigers, both because they’ve run out of margin for error in the playoff hunt and because of the increasing heat on coach Brian Kelly. If the Aggies overcome this team and this environment, they are legit SEC, and potentially national title, contenders.

Current line: A&M -2.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 0.8 | FPI projection: A&M by 0.6

No. 15 Missouri at No. 10 Vanderbilt (3:30 p.m., ESPN)

On Oct. 18, 1947, No. 10 Vanderbilt hosted Bear Bryant’s 20th-ranked Kentucky Wildcats. Led by soon-to-be All-America center Jay Rhodemyre, Kentucky controlled the line of scrimmage, allowing just 151 total yards and getting just enough offense from George Blanda & Co. to prevail 14-0. The Commodores fell out of the AP top 10 … and didn’t return for 78 years. But here they are, ranked 10th and hosting Missouri and “College GameDay” on Saturday.

The Tigers and Commodores have lost only to Alabama, and one will be 7-1 and in the thick of the SEC and playoff hunts heading into November. If Mizzou wins, it will likely be Bear Bryant Kentucky-style, via the line of scrimmage. Ends Zion Young and Damon Wilson II key a Tigers defense that ranks seventh in success rate*, and after struggling to get Ahmad Hardy and the run game going against Alabama and Auburn, Missouri could get some respite against a Vandy defense that ranks just 62nd in yards allowed per carry (not including sacks). The Commodores are good at limiting big plays, but Mizzou will have an opportunity to generate efficiency for quarterback Beau Pribula.

The Tigers better do that because Vandy’s offense is as efficient as they come: The Dores are first nationally in points per drive and third in success rate. The offensive line is excellent, backs Sedrick Alexander and Makhilyn Young average 7.3 yards per carry, and quarterback Diego Pavia is the best improviser in the sport. The passing game isn’t particularly explosive, but it’s really hard to knock Vandy off-schedule.

(* Success rate: How frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second or 100% on third and fourth.)

Current line: Vandy -2.5 | SP+ projection: Vandy by 0.2 | FPI projection: Vandy by 1.3

No. 8 Ole Miss at No. 13 Oklahoma (noon, ABC)

From importance and “styles make fights” perspectives, Ole Miss’ first trip to Norman is one of the most interesting games of the week. As with Mizzou-Vandy, the winner will be in solid shape in the SEC race and in great shape for the College Football Playoff. Everywhere you look, it’s either strength-versus-strength or weakness-versus-weakness.

Ole Miss offense: 12th in points per drive
Oklahoma defense: second in points per drive

Oklahoma offense: 65th in points per drive
Ole Miss defense: 70th in points per drive

Oklahoma boasts the most aggressive defense in college football: Opponents have gained zero or fewer yards on 44.0% of snaps, most in the country. Ole Miss, however, has by far the best offense the Sooners have faced to date. Trinidad Chambliss and the Rebels just scored 35 points on a Georgia defense that had been allowing 17 per game. Chambliss’ No. 2 and 3 pass catchers (Deuce Alexander and tight end Dae’Quan Wright) are listed as questionable, but Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin and offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. can usually scheme up success.

Of course, Ole Miss also allowed 43 points to the Dawgs. The Rebels are awful against the run, but OU hasn’t established much in that regard. Oklahoma’s success comes via the pass, but Ole Miss is decent in that regard (despite a poor pass rush), and Sooners quarterback John Mateer has averaged just 4.5 yards per dropback since rushing back from a hand injury.

With the way Ole Miss faltered late against Georgia and the way OU’s offense has performed of late, I could be talked into a blowout in either direction here.

Current line: OU -5.5 (up from -3.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: OU by 5.0 | FPI projection: OU by 1.3

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Who remains unbeaten?

We’re suddenly down to just six unbeaten teams: Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia Tech, BYU and Navy. The Buckeyes are off, and we mentioned A&M above, but here’s what the other perfect teams have in store.

UCLA at No. 2 Indiana (noon, Fox)

Surely UCLA can’t do it again, right? In the past three weeks, the Bruins have wrecked Penn State’s season (and James Franklin’s tenure), further wrecked Michigan State’s and hastened Maryland’s October demise. Now, they get a shot at Curt Cignetti’s brilliant Indiana Hoosiers.

The Bruins have turned around their season by creating negative plays and turnovers on defense and running the ball with ruthless efficiency behind backs Jalen Berger, Anthony Frias II and Jaivian Thomas. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava is making just enough plays with his legs to overcome his sack-prone tendencies. (He’s also practicing this week after suffering an injury against Maryland last Saturday.)

Of course, Indiana almost completely avoids negative plays and turnovers on offense and both defends the run aggressively and sacks QBs like few others (third nationally in sack rate). The Hoosiers should handle this test quite well, though at this point, it might be fair to ask, what doesn’t Indiana do well? Where might the Hoosiers be vulnerable to a challenge between now and what feels like an inevitable battle with Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game?

From a statistical standpoint, I can really find only two areas of concern.

1. The Hoosiers are strangely poor on fourth downs. They’re just 3-for-11 this season. Granted, this would be more of a problem if they weren’t fourth nationally in third-down conversion rate (54.9%), but something’s off there.

2. They’re sometimes too aggressive up front. They’re first nationally in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line), but when they give up a successful rush, it’s a pretty big one. Big plays are holding them back at least slightly.

Granted, it’s hard to complain too much about a defense that ranks third nationally in points allowed per drive, but big plays have been known to create upsets.

Current line: Indiana -25.5 (up from -23.5) | SP+ projection: Indiana by 27.9 | FPI projection: Indiana by 26.4

No. 11 BYU at Iowa State (3:30 p.m., Fox)

Not too long ago, Iowa State was 5-0 with wins over rivals Kansas State and Iowa and a blowout of Arizona. But after losing cornerbacks Jeremiah Cooper and Jontez Williams to ACL injuries, and with a nonexistent pass rush, the Cyclones gave up too many big plays in road losses to Cincinnati and Colorado. (The offense also failed in Boulder, turning 441 yards into just 17 points.)

What do you do when your unbeaten season is ruined? Try to ruin someone else’s! Coming off a bye week, ISU is somewhat surprisingly favored at home against unbeaten BYU. The Cougars have already survived a few tight Big 12 contests. Quarterback Bear Bachmeier is a lower-efficiency, higher-explosiveness passer, and he’s making a difference in the run game. Can ISU make enough stops? If not, can Rocco Becht and the offense keep up in a track meet?

Current line: ISU -2.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 3.2 | FPI projection: BYU by 1.2

Syracuse at No. 7 Georgia Tech (noon, ESPN)

Syracuse is 0-3 since quarterback Steve Angeli was lost for the season; Rickie Collins has thrown six interceptions in his past two games, and the Orange have lost to Duke, SMU and Pitt by an average of 33-11. Georgia Tech’s defense isn’t amazing but is probably good enough to keep Syracuse stuck in neutral.

Meanwhile, the Tech offense is the best the Orange have faced since Week 1 against Tennessee. It would be great for the Yellow Jackets if they could handle this one easily enough that Haynes King isn’t forced to run a lot and take lots of hits for once.

Current line: Tech -16.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 17.8 | FPI projection: Tech by 13.7

Florida Atlantic at Navy (3:30 p.m., CBSSN)

FAU is a unique out. Zach Kittley’s Owls go for it on fourth down more than half the time, they play at the nation’s second-fastest tempo and they hunt big plays. Unfortunately, they also rank 120th in success rate and 124th in turnovers. Their aggressiveness often fails to produce points (or give their defense a rest), and they’ve lost four games by an average of 27 points. Blake Horvath and Navy are projected underdogs in each of their past four games — at North Texas, at Notre Dame, vs. USF, at Memphis — but they should move to 8-0 here.

Current line: Navy -15.5 | SP+ projection: Navy by 19.3 | FPI projection: Navy by 11.1

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Two old Big Ten rivalries (and great trophies)

They know trophies in the Big Ten. They also know 5-2 records. Eight of the conference’s 18 teams are 5-2, and any of those teams that can win out and get to the finish line at 10-2 will be in the CFP conversation.

This weekend gives us two of the sport’s best trophy games involving three members of the 5-2 club.

Minnesota at Iowa (3:30 p.m., CBS)

It’s really hard to beat the Floyd of Rosedale, a 98-pound bronze pig that Minnesota and Iowa have been fighting over for 90 years. Iowa has held on to it (him?) for nine of the past 10 years.

Iowa is the projected favorite in this one, both because of home-field advantage and because the Hawkeyes can run the ball and defend the run. They’re 17th in rushing success rate, a massive upgrade over a couple of years ago, and though quarterback Mark Gronowski threw for just 68 yards in last week’s win over Penn State, he rushed for 130 yards and two scores. Meanwhile, Iowa is allowing just 3.4 yards per carry, not including sacks.

The ground game can be all that matters in an Iowa-Minnesota game, but Minnesota is putting a lot on redshirt freshman quarterback Drake Lindsey’s right arm, and he’s holding up mostly well despite an inefficient ground game (103rd in rushing success rate). The Gophers were also brilliant last week, sacking Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola nine times, getting a 16-for-20 performance from Lindsey and even getting 148 rushing yards from Darius Taylor in a 24-6 win.

Current line: Iowa -8.5 | SP+ projection: Iowa by 10.2 | FPI projection: Iowa by 8.7

No. 25 Michigan at Michigan State (7:30 p.m., NBC)

The Paul Bunyan Trophy is a pretty good reward in a series that has seen some recent momentum shifts. Michigan State won eight of 10 between 2008 and 2017 — a run that included one of the most shocking endings of the 21st century — but Michigan has won five of the past seven.

Both of these teams need this one. Michigan’s excellent 24-7 win over Washington last week laid out a scenario in which the Wolverines are 9-2 and riding a five-game winning streak when Ohio State visits.

MSU, on the other hand, just needs something positive. The Spartans have lost four straight, all by double digits. Quarterback Aidan Chiles showed flashes of improvement early, but the Spartans’ offensive effectiveness has trailed off. Second-year coach Jonathan Smith is beginning to show up on “hot seat” lists, and though that seems foolish to me — you don’t hire a guy because of his long-term program-building prowess, then drop him in less than two seasons — this will still almost certainly be State’s fourth losing season in a row.

Current line: Michigan -14.5 | SP+ projection: Michigan by 15.8 | FPI projection: Michigan by 14.6

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This week in the Group of 5

Memphis’ shocking loss to UAB last week threw the races for both the American title and the Group of 5’s guaranteed playoff bid into uncertainty, and at first glance, it seems like USF is best poised to take advantage. Guess who will play against each other this weekend? Memphis and USF! It’s the pretty obvious G5 game of the week, though I’ve got another interesting game to put on your radar, too.

No. 18 South Florida at Memphis (noon, ESPN2)

USF leaves no doubt. Apart from their 18-16 win over Florida, the Bulls have won five games by an average of 52-19 and suffered their lone loss (to Miami) 49-12. Alex Golesh’s offense is both ridiculously explosive and, thanks in part to quarterback Byrum Brown‘s legs, excellent on third downs. And after an average defensive SP+ ranking of 113.0 in Golesh’s first two seasons, the Bulls are currently 57th.

If last week was just a “stuff happens” loss for Memphis — interim-coached teams (like UAB) have been shockingly good so far this season — the Tigers should have plenty to offer, especially at home. They start and finish drives beautifully (eighth in three-and-out rate, third in red zone TD rate), and though their pass rush is problematic, they control the line of scrimmage against the run and force third-and-longs. They have an immediate chance to right last week’s wrongs and climb back to the top of the conference pecking order.

Current line: USF -4.5 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 5.4 | FPI projection: Memphis by 0.1

San Diego State at Fresno State (3:30 p.m., FS1)

If you’re looking for playoff alternatives outside of the American, take a gander at San Diego State. Starting with a 34-0 stomping of Cal, Sean Lewis’ Aztecs have won four straight, overachieving against SP+ projections by 17.3 points per game. They’re not reliable yet — they’ve scored 34-plus four times and under 14 twice, and they’ve allowed 7.4 points per game in wins and 36 in their lone loss. But corner Chris Johnson and edge rusher Trey White are two of the G5’s best playmakers, and if they can score enough against a solid Fresno State defense (not a given), their odds of reaching 11-1 improve considerably.

Current line: SDSU -2.5 | SP+ projection: SDSU by 6.1 | FPI projection: SDSU by 2.7

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It’s Dakota Marker time!

FCS: No. 1 North Dakota State at No. 2 South Dakota State (8 p.m., ESPNU)

South Dakota State lost coach Jimmy Rogers to Washington State and more than 20 transfers, including quarterback Mark Gronowski (Iowa), to FBS teams. North Dakota State lost a few stars, too, including running back CharMar Brown (Miami) and safety Cole Wisniewski (Texas Tech). The transfer portal can hit you especially, hard even at the FCS level.

Oh right, I almost forgot: NDSU and SDSU are a combined 14-0 this season.

SDSU’s stats have slipped slightly, though big quarterback Chase Mason has 1,419 passing yards and thrown 11 touchdowns and one interception, and the pass defense is as nasty as ever, with 12 interceptions and 18 sacks in seven games. NDSU, however, has established a level of dominance we haven’t seen from the Bison in a while. The defending FCS champs have outscored opponents by an average of 44-10, and only one opponent has stayed closer than 27 points. Quarterback Cole Payton is producing Mason-like stats, and the receiver trio of Bryce Lance, RaJa Nelson and Reis Kessel is averaging 20.1 yards per catch. Based on their current SP+ rating, the Bison would be in the top 40 in FBS.

We’ve seen intriguing performances from programs such as Tarleton State (third in SP+) and Harvard (fourth), but until proven otherwise, these remain FCS’ defining programs. And for the third time since 2022, the Dakota Marker is a 1-versus-2 battle. The No. 2 team won both of the previous games, and it wouldn’t be a shock if SDSU pulled off a home upset. But it would definitely be an upset — the Bison have been at a different level thus far.

SP+ projection: NDSU by 6.9

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Week 9 chaos superfecta

We’re once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. We ended a three-week losing streak with a two-fer last week, so we’re back to 4-4 for the year.

This week, we set our sights on the Big 12. SP+ says there’s only a 54% chance that Cincinnati (75% win probability against Baylor), Utah (86% against Colorado), TCU (84% against West Virginia) and Texas Tech (99% against Oklahoma State) all win. I say there’s a 0% chance!

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Week 9 playlist

Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.

Friday evening

California at Virginia Tech (7:30 p.m., ESPN). After the turmoil of the past few years, Cal reaching 5-2 is a cool story. But the Golden Bears have gotten here while beating only one team better than 90th in SP+. Virginia Tech is only 91st, but the interim-coached Hokies have been more competitive over the past month and are favored despite their 2-5 record.

Current line: Tech -4.5 | SP+ projection: Cal by 0.9 | FPI projection: Tech by 6.6

Early Saturday

Auburn at Arkansas (12:45 p.m., SECN). This is easily the most stylistically interesting game of the week in the SEC. In league play, Auburn games have averaged 32.8 total points, while Arkansas games have averaged 76.0. It’s like the two teams are playing different sports at the moment, though they’re both losing at those sports. (Combined SEC record: 0-7.)

Current line: Arkansas -2.5 (flipped from Auburn -1.5) | SP+ projection: Auburn by 0.3 | FPI projection: Arkansas by 0.2

Northwestern at Nebraska (noon, FS1). Something has clicked for Northwestern: The Wildcats have won four in a row, and over the past three, they’ve overachieved against SP+ projections by 19.6 points per game. Nebraska is favored for a reason, but Matt Rhule’s Huskers were pretty poor in last week’s loss to Minnesota, and Northwestern’s defense is just as good as the Gophers’.

Current line: Huskers -8.5 | SP+ projection: Huskers by 12.0 | FPI projection: Huskers by 7.2

Kansas State at Kansas (noon, TNT). Kansas State’s past three games have been its best three of the season, and the sight of Kansas on the other sideline tends to bring out the Wildcats’ best — they haven’t lost the Sunflower Showdown since 2008. Kansas got a week off to recover from a humbling loss at Texas Tech; in which direction does the Jayhawks’ season go from here?

Current line: KU -2.5 | SP+ projection: KU by 5.0 | FPI projection: KU by 1.7

No. 16 Virginia at North Carolina (noon, ACCN). UVA tried pretty hard to lose to Washington State at home last week, while UNC went across the country and played its best game of 2025. It’s at least conceivable that Bill Belichick’s Heels can pull a surprise. Still, UVA’s offense is so clean, with minimal negative plays and efficiency via run and pass, that the Cavaliers get the benefit of the doubt.

Current line: UVA -10.5 (up from -8.5) | SP+ projection: UVA by 12.6 | FPI projection: UVA by 11.9

SMU at Wake Forest (noon, The CW). These teams went a combined 4-4 in September but are 5-0 in October. Wake plays great defense with the most all-or-nothing offense you’ll see, and SMU’s defense has rounded back into form after a poor start. The Mustangs need this one for ACC contention, but Jake Dickert has Wake moving in a very fun direction.

Current line: SMU -3.5 | SP+ projection: SMU by 4.1 | FPI projection: SMU by 4.8

Saturday afternoon

No. 23 Illinois at Washington (3:30 p.m., BTN). Washington has averaged just 12.3 points per game against top-15 defenses (per SP+) and 51.3 against defenses ranked 85th or lower. Illinois’ defense is in the middle (48th), so I guess we assume the Huskies score 30 or so? Illinois can probably hit that mark against a shaky-but-improving UW defense, too. This should be fun.

Current line: UW -3.5 | SP+ projection: UW by 3.7 | FPI projection: UW by 2.9

No. 4 Alabama at South Carolina (3:30 p.m., ABC). After a blowout loss at home, South Carolina turned around its 2024 season by nearly toppling Alabama in Tuscaloosa, then winning six straight. The circumstances are even worse for the Gamecocks this time — last week’s 19-point loss to Oklahoma dropped them to 3-4 — but maybe they still have a turnaround in them? Maybe Alabama suffers a letdown after four straight wins against ranked teams? Possibly? Yeah, I’m not convinced either.

Current line: Bama -12.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 10.5 | FPI projection: Bama by 10.7

Baylor at No. 21 Cincinnati (4 p.m., ESPN2). Baylor lives to entertain: Five of the Bears’ seven games have topped 60 total points, and they’re 19th in offensive SP+ and 98th on defense. Cincinnati doesn’t mind a good track meet, but the Bearcats’ bend-don’t-break defense has improved of late. With games against Utah and BYU looming, Cincy’s Big 12 title hopes would take a hit with an upset loss.

Current line: Cincy -3.5 (down from -5.5) | SP+ projection: Cincy by 10.9 | FPI projection: Cincy by 4.5

No. 22 Texas at Mississippi State (SECN). Mississippi State is 0-3 in SEC play, but two losses went down to the wire. So did Texas’ frustrating overtime win at Kentucky last week. The MSU offense is quickly losing steam, but the Texas offense hasn’t really had any. One assumes the elite Texas defense drives another win, but this could be tight for a while.

Current line: Horns -7.5 | SP+ projection: Horns by 7.2 | FPI projection: Horns by 9.5

Western Michigan at Miami (Ohio) (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). WMU probably didn’t want a bye last week — the smoking-hot Broncos have won four straight since an 0-3 start, overachieving against projections by 21.3 points per game. Now, they trek to Oxford to face a Miami team that has also gone from 0-3 to 4-3. The winner of this one heads into November’s midweek MACtion slate as the conference title favorite.

Current line: Miami -1.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 2.5 | FPI projection: Miami by 0.5

Oklahoma State at No. 14 Texas Tech (4 p.m., ESPNU). With quarterback Behren Morton injured, Tech suffered its first blemish of the season at Arizona State last week. Backup Will Hammond appears likely to start again Saturday, but even without Morton (or tortillas), one assumes the Red Raiders should manhandle an OSU team that has fallen to an almost inconceivable 121st in SP+.

Current line: Tech -38.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 39.3 | FPI projection: Tech by 34.6

Saturday evening

Houston at No. 24 Arizona State (8 p.m., ESPN2). ASU has won 11 of its past 13 Big 12 games, and both of the losses were without Sam Leavitt. After Saturday’s injury-aided victory over Tech, the Sun Devils could be in great shape to return to the conference title game with a win here. But they’ll have to take on a strong Houston defense without star receiver Jordyn Tyson (hamstring), and Houston’s offense is coming off two strong performances.

Current line: ASU -6.5 (down from -8.5) | SP+ projection: ASU by 0.9 | FPI projection: ASU by 6.0

No. 17 Tennessee at Kentucky (SECN). Kentucky showed signs of life for the first time in a while against Texas. Was that the start of something or a last gasp? If it’s the former, Tennessee has underachieved against SP+ projections for five straight games and could be vulnerable after last week’s demoralizing loss to Bama. If it’s the latter, never mind.

Current line: Vols -7.5 (down from -9.5) | SP+ projection: Vols by 10.4 | FPI projection: Vols by 7.3

Stanford at No. 9 Miami (7 p.m., ESPN). Consider this a good temperature check for Miami after its first setback of the season against Louisville. The Hurricanes will likely roll over Stanford regardless, but with a big trip to SMU looming, now’s the time for a bounce-back game from quarterback Carson Beck and fewer missed tackles from the defense.

Current line: Miami -29.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 29.4 | FPI projection: Miami by 26.6

Wisconsin at No. 6 Oregon (7 p.m., FS1). Against teams ranked worse than 60th in SP+, Oregon has gone 5-0 with an average score of 51-9. Wisconsin is most certainly worse than 60th. In fact, after back-to-back shutout losses, the Badgers would probably take the nine points if offered. Hmm. Tell me why I listed this game?

Current line: Ducks -32.5 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 31.6 | FPI projection: Ducks by 29.4

Late Saturday

Colorado at Utah (10:15 p.m., ESPN). Utah needs to win out to keep its conference title hopes alive and is favored in each remaining game. But quarterback Devon Dampier is listed as questionable after an injury against BYU, and Colorado has dropped hints of defensive competence. Kaidon Salter and the Buffaloes also have some big-play potential on offense. This one might not be a gimme.

Current line: Utah -12.5 (down from -14.5) | SP+ projection: Utah by 17.0 | FPI projection: Utah by 11.2

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Smaller-school showcase

Let’s once again save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Besides Dakota Marker, here are three games you should track.

FCS: No. 16 Presbyterian at Dayton (12 p.m., YouTube). We’re getting pretty used to incredible turnaround stories in college football — hello, Indiana and Vanderbilt — but hello, Presbyterian. In their first 16 years in FCS, the Blue Hose averaged 2.8 wins per season and won more than four games once. They were known primarily for hiring the Never Punts guy in 2021, and they went 1-10 in 2022, Steve Englehart’s first year in charge. But they won their last four games of 2024, three by blowouts, to jump to 6-6 and 85th in FCS SP+.

Seven games into 2025, Englehart’s team is unbeaten and up to 16th! They’re outscoring opponents by an average of 41-14. From quarterback Collin Hurst to a secondary that has picked off 10 passes, they have no obvious weaknesses, and they’re charging toward their first FCS playoff bid. This one could be tricky, though, because Dayton is up to 31st in SP+. Last week’s tight loss to Butler ended a five-game winning streak, but the Flyers are allowing only 16.1 points per game.

SP+ projection: Presbyterian by 4.9.

Division II: No. 18 Grand Valley State at No. 1 Ferris State (1 p.m., FloCollege). Always make room for the Anchor-Bone Classic! Top-ranked Ferris State looks as good as ever despite having lost quarterback Trinidad Chambliss (Ole Miss) and several other offensive stars to high-level FBS rosters. Redshirt freshman quarterback Wyatt Bower is posting even better numbers than Chambliss did, as the assembly line keeps cranking out talent. GVSU, however, needs this one. The Lakers are 4-2 after an upset loss to Saginaw Valley State last week, and their playoff résumé might not withstand another defeat.

SP+ projection: Ferris State by 12.9.

Division III: No. 8 Wisconsin-Platteville at No. 9 Wisconsin-Whitewater (2 p.m., local streaming). Three weeks into my favorite small-school conference title race — D-III’s Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference — we have a glorious six-team logjam at 2-1. No. 12 Wisconsin-La Crosse hosts No. 24 Wisconsin-Oshkosh in one matchup of 2-1 teams, but the big one’s in Whitewater, Wisconsin, where two top-five defenses, per SP+, will likely dictate one of the sport’s most physical games at any level.

SP+ projection: UWW by 4.1.

It is way too early to make any definitive conclusions about the 2025-26 NHL season.

But then again, it’s the perfect time to celebrate some small-sample superstars.

As part of this week’s new edition of the ESPN NHL Power Rankings, we’ve identified a player on each team that has excelled way beyond expectation thus far.

How we rank: A panel of ESPN hockey commentators, analysts, reporters and editors sends in a 1-32 poll based on the games through Wednesday, which generates our list.

Note: Previous ranking for each team refers to the previous edition, published Oct. 17. Points percentages are through Thursday’s games; other stats are through Wednesday’s games, unless otherwise noted.

Previous ranking: 3
Points percentage: 81.3%

Scott Wedgewood. The 33-year-old journeyman netminder had backstopped five different clubs since his debut in 2015-16. Are we witnessing a breakout a decade later? Wedgewood started the season 5-0-2, generating a 1.84 goals-against average and .927 save percentage, helping the Avs roll to the top of the standings.

Next seven days: @ BOS (Oct. 25), @ NJ (Oct. 26), vs. NJ (Oct. 28)

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Previous ranking: 6
Points percentage: 85.7%

Jack Eichel. Eichel has many accomplishments in his career, but has yet to hit the 100-point benchmark in a single season, coming closest in 2024-25 with 94. The NHL’s current scoring leader had 16 through seven games, which is a 187-point pace; it’s unlikely he hits that lofty mark, but triple digits does seem in play.

Next seven days: @ FLA (Oct. 25), @ TB (Oct. 26), @ CAR (Oct. 28)

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Previous ranking: 1
Points percentage: 85.7%

Seth Jarvis. The 23-year-old already made a name for himself with back-to-back 30-goal seasons and a strong showing at the 4 Nations Face-Off. Does he have another gear? He scored nine points through six games (including six goals).

Next seven days: @ DAL (Oct. 25), vs. VGK (Oct. 28), vs. NYI (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 11
Points percentage: 85.7%

Jake Allen. With all due respect to Jesper Bratt (with a team-high 11 points through seven games) and Jack Hughes (who led the team to a win against the Maple Leafs with a hat trick), the nod goes to goaltender Allen. He is 3-0-0 thus far this season, with a .931 save percentage (his career mark is .908) and 1.91 goals-against average (compared to 2.75 for his career).

Next seven days: vs. SJ (Oct. 24), vs. COL (Oct. 26), @ COL (Oct. 28), @ SJ (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 12
Points percentage: 71.4%

Mark Scheifele. The Jets’ top-line center has reached double digits in goals every season since 2013-14, topping out at 42 in 2022-23. Is this the season he gets 50? With seven through six games, he’s off to quite the start.

Next seven days: vs. CGY (Oct. 24), vs. UTA (Oct. 26), @ MIN (Oct. 28), vs. CHI (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 7
Points percentage: 71.4%

Tom Wilson. Certainly known more for his truculence and intimidation than a deft scoring touch, the 31-year-old winger has 10 points to his name through seven games. Perhaps more surprisingly, he has just two penalty minutes in that same span!

Next seven days: @ CBJ (Oct. 24), vs. OTT (Oct. 25), @ DAL (Oct. 28)

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Previous ranking: 9
Points percentage: 62.5%

Emmitt Finnie. Has a new entrant entered the Calder Trophy chat? A seventh-round pick (No. 201 overall) in 2023, Finnie has been riding shotgun on the Wings’ top line with Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond this season. So far, so good, as he’s registered six points through the first seven games.

Next seven days: vs. STL (Oct. 25), @ STL (Oct. 28), @ LA (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 8
Points percentage: 66.7%

Jakub Dobes. All honor to captain Nick Suzuki, who has 11 points through eight games, but the lean goes to Dobes, who won his first four starts while generating a .950 save percentage and 1.47 goals-against average.

Next seven days: @ VAN (Oct. 25), @ SEA (Oct. 28)

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Previous ranking: 24
Points percentage: 75%

Nick Schmaltz. For the Mammoth to earn a playoff spot out of the brutal Central Division, they’ll need everyone firing on all cylinders — and some breakout performances too. Schmaltz’s start certainly fits into the latter category, as his 10 points through seven games has him on pace for well over 100, which would shatter his career-best mark of 63 he set last season.

Next seven days: @ MIN (Oct. 25), @ WPG (Oct. 26), @ EDM (Oct. 28)

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Previous ranking: 21
Points percentage: 754%

Justin Brazeau. Many believed that the 2025-26 season was going to go similarly to the 2024-25 campaign, and that the Penguins would elect to trade away veterans in exchange for picks and prospects to help the rebuild. Instead, they were in second place in the Metro Division through seven games, and Brazeau — with a previous single-season career high of 22 points — already has eight points in those seven contests.

Next seven days: vs. CBJ (Oct. 25), vs. STL (Oct. 27), @ PHI (Oct. 28), @ MIN (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 5
Points percentage: 44.4%

Brad Marchand. Now in his 18th NHL season, Marchand has been many things throughout his career. Rarely is he a point-per-game player, a feat he last eclipsed in the late 2010s and early 2020s. But through eight games, he’s right on that pace, with three goals and five assists.

Next seven days: vs. VGK (Oct. 25), vs. ANA (Oct. 28)

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Previous ranking: 13
Points percentage: 50%

William Nylander. The 29-year-old winger has been a steady source of production throughout his Leafs tenure, but has never scored triple-digit points. Is this the season that changes? With 13 through seven games, he’s well ahead of that pace.

Next seven days: @ BUF (Oct. 24), vs. BUF (Oct. 25), vs. CGY (Oct. 28), @ CBJ (Oct. 29)

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Previous ranking: 15
Points percentage: 50%

Jimmy Snuggerud. The Blues haven’t gotten off to the start they’d envisioned, but rookie winger Snuggerud has been every bit as good as expected. If he continues to score goals at this pace, he’s certain to earn a sizable portion of Calder Trophy votes.

Next seven days: @ DET (Oct. 25), @ PIT (Oct. 27), vs. DET (Oct. 28), vs. VAN (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 22
Points percentage: 62.5%

Spencer Knight. Honorable mention here to the Blackhawks’ dynamic young duo of Connor Bedard and Frank Nazar, both of whom scored seven points through seven games. We’re giving the nod to Knight, who came over in the Seth Jones trade last season and looks every bit like a future franchise netminder in the small sample of 2025-26: through five games, he’s generated a .937 save percentage and 1.96 goals-against average.

Next seven days: vs. LA (Oct. 26), vs. OTT (Oct. 28), @ WPG (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 4
Points percentage: 56.3%

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. The longest-tenured member of the Oilers, the Nuge’s current career high in points is 104, a mark he hit in 2022-23. Through seven games, he’s at seven points, on pace for 82, which would be the second most in his career.

Next seven days: @ SEA (Oct. 25), @ VAN (Oct. 26), vs. UTA (Oct. 28), vs. NYR (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 25
Points percentage: 50%

Dan Vladar. For a franchise which has had a Sisyphean pursuit of goaltending excellence for decades, might they have found it in the 28-year-old Vladar? Through four starts, the Czech native has gone 3-1-0, with a .929 save percentage and 1.75 goals-against average.

Next seven days: vs. NYI (Oct. 25), vs. PIT (Oct. 28), vs. NSH (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 14
Points percentage: 62.5%

Jaden Schwartz. Schwartz has never been known as a high-scoring forward — his career high of 63 was set back in 2014-15. But his five points through seven games are tied for the team lead as Seattle is shockingly in playoff position midway through the first month.

Next seven days: vs. EDM (Oct. 25), vs. MTL (Oct. 28)

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Previous ranking: 28
Points percentage: 50%

Thatcher Demko. Perhaps the Canucks’ spot in the standings is a mild surprise. But if Demko keeps playing as he started — 3-1-0, with a .922 save percentage and 2.28 goals-against average — it’ll provide the foundation for a real contender, and potentially get him on the U.S. Olympic team too.

Next seven days: vs. MTL (Oct. 25), vs. EDM (Oct. 26), vs. NYR (Oct. 28), @ STL (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 17
Points percentage: 64.3%

Beckett Sennecke. Leo Carlsson and Mason McTavish are also off to hot starts, but that was expected. The surprise of the forward group thus far is Sennecke, the No. 3 pick of the 2024 draft who has five points through six games, skating on the second line and second power-play unit.

Next seven days: @ TB (Oct. 25), @ FLA (Oct. 28)

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Previous ranking: 2
Points percentage: 50%

Thomas Harley. The Stars have a quartet of skaters who registered six points through the club’s first six games: Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, Wyatt Johnston and Harley. The three forwards have approached or eclipsed a point-per-game pace for a full season previously; if Harley keeps this pace, he’ll shatter his single-season mark of 50, set in 2024-25.

Next seven days: vs. CAR (Oct. 25), @ NSH (Oct. 26), vs. WSH (Oct. 28), @ TB (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 16
Points percentage: 43.8%

Matt Boldy. Two Wild skaters scored five goals through the club’s first eight games. One of them signed a $17 million average annual value contract extension this preseason that kicks in in 2026-27, while the other will be making $10 million less per season on his through 2029-30. So while Kirill Kaprizov‘s start is great, we give the nod to Boldy.

Next seven days: vs. UTA (Oct. 25), vs. SJ (Oct. 26), vs. WPG (Oct. 28), vs. PIT (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 18
Points percentage: 44.4%

Igor Shesterkin. By season’s end, the Rangers may well be among the NHL’s best. The goal scoring has lagged thus far, but the goal prevention has been top-notch thanks to Shesterkin, who has thus far generated a .957 save percentage and 1.17 goals-against average; and yet, he started 2-3-1 thanks to a lack of goal support.

Next seven days: @ CGY (Oct. 26), @ VAN (Oct. 28), @ EDM (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 26
Points percentage: 50%

Kirill Marchenko. Marchenko tied for the team lead in goals last season, with 31, and appears to be motivated to best that total in 2025-26. Through six games, he has five goals, including a hat trick against the Wild back on Oct. 11.

Next seven days: vs. WSH (Oct. 24), @ PIT (Oct. 25), @ BUF (Oct. 28), vs. TOR (Oct. 29)

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Previous ranking: 30
Points percentage: 57.1%

Matthew Schaefer. The Islanders thought they might have landed a special player with the first overall pick in the 2025 draft. Little did they know that 18-year-old Schaefer would be leading all rookies in scoring with seven points through six games, and leading his own team in average ice time, with 22:06 per game.

Next seven days: @ PHI (Oct. 25), @ BOS (Oct. 28), @ CAR (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 23
Points percentage: 50%

Adrian Kempe. The start of the 2025-26 campaign hasn’t gone as well as planned for the Kings, but Kempe has kept the fire burning a bit. Through seven games, he was on pace for 105 points, which would shatter his career-best mark of 75, set in 2023-24.

Next seven days: @ NSH (Oct. 25), @ CHI (Oct. 26), @ SJ (Oct. 28), vs. DET (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 20
Points percentage: 50%

Roman Josi. As the Predators hope to reverse course from last season’s debacle, a key component will be Norris Trophy-caliber play from blueliner Josi. Skating 24:56 per contest and leading the team with five points through seven games, he’s doing his part.

Next seven days: vs. LA (Oct. 25), vs. DAL (Oct. 26), vs. TB (Oct. 28), @ PHI (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 32
Points percentage: 42.9%

Zach Benson. Still just 20 years old, this is Benson’s third season after making the NHL right after being drafted 13th overall in 2023. But, are we witnessing his breakout? He has six points through four games, playing in all-situations for the Sabres.

Next seven days: vs. TOR (Oct. 24), @ TOR (Oct. 25), vs. CBJ (Oct. 28), @ BOS (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 10
Points percentage: 33.3%

Pavel Zacha. If the Bruins’ season goes sideways, we may hear a lot of buzz on Zacha being a trade target. But if he keeps performing the way he has — he maintained a point-per-game pace through the first eight contests — the second-line anchor will be a big reason why the B’s remain at least somewhat competitive.

Next seven days: vs. COL (Oct. 25), @ OTT (Oct. 27), vs. NYI (Oct. 28), vs. BUF (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 27
Points percentage: 43.8%

Shane Pinto. With captain Brady Tkachuk out injured, the Senators need everyone to step up. Pinto, the 24-year-old Long Island native, has answered the call best, with seven goals through seven games.

Next seven days: @ WSH (Oct. 25), vs. BOS (Oct. 27), @ CHI (Oct. 28), vs. CGY (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 19
Points percentage: 28.6%

Anthony Cirelli. A player generally considered more in the mold of 200-foot pivots like Patrice Bergeron and Aleksander Barkov, Cirelli’s three goals through six games put him well ahead of his career-best pace of 27, set last season.

Next seven days: vs. ANA (Oct. 25), vs. VGK (Oct. 26), @ NSH (Oct. 28), vs. DAL (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 31
Points percentage: 18.8%

Nazem Kadri. It’s a bit of a stretch to find a small-sample “star” for the Flames, so we’ll go with their current leading scorer, with four assists through eight games. Kadri is in the fourth of seven seasons on his current deal, but could entice teams in need of depth and toughness down the middle ahead of the trade deadline.

Next seven days: @ WPG (Oct. 24), vs. NYR (Oct. 26), @ TOR (Oct. 28), @ OTT (Oct. 30)

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Previous ranking: 29
Points percentage: 28.6%

Dmitry Orlov. The positive ascent for the franchise and its young core group continues. But will this also be a breakout campaign at age 34 for Orlov? The veteran blueliner — who made his debut when Macklin Celebrini was five years old — is on pace to eclipse 60 points, which would shatter a career high of 36 he tallied when he played on a team with Alex Ovechkin.

Next seven days: @ NJ (Oct. 24), @ MIN (Oct. 26), vs. LA (Oct. 28), vs. NJ (Oct. 30)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays. NL West vs. AL East. Shohei Ohtani vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

It’s time for Game 1 of the 2025 World Series, featuring an L.A. squad looking to repeat as champions against a team that hasn’t won it all since going back-to-back in 1992-93 — and we’re here to get you ready for all the action.

With the first pitch of Game 1 scheduled for 8 p.m. ET at Rogers Centre, we break down the players and matchups that matter most for both teams. We also asked our ESPN MLB experts to make their picks for who will win the Series, how many games it will take and who will be the MVP of this Fall Classic.

Jump to: Dodgers | Blue Jays | Our predictions

Los Angeles Dodgers

Chance of winning: 60.4% | ESPN BET odds: -210

What’s on the line for the Dodgers: History! Big-time history. The Dodgers are looking to become the first repeat champions since the Yankees won three years in a row from 1998 to 2000. L.A. would love to send Clayton Kershaw into retirement as a champion, even if he’ll probably be watching this one from the bench or the bullpen.

And while it’s fair game to hate the Dodgers for buying an entire starting rotation, it’s worth noting they won it all last year with a 98-win regular season and might win this year following a 93-win regular season, but did not win in seasons of 104 wins (2017), 106 wins (2019), 106 wins again (2021) 111 wins (2022) and 100 wins (2023). This could be one of the great dynasties in MLB history but in the eyes of some, they’ll need back-to-back titles to officially earn that designation. — David Schoenfield

Three reasons L.A. can win:

1. Starting pitching. Dodgers starters have posted a 1.40 ERA in these playoffs, the lowest ever for a team that played at least 10 postseason games. Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow and Shohei Ohtani have already contributed eight starts of at least six innings and no more than three runs allowed. And if their collective dominance wasn’t enough, they’ll go into this World Series on extended rest, giving manager Dave Roberts more freedom to push his starters even deeper into games. The Dodgers won it all last year with a dominant bullpen that made up for a very limited starting rotation. It’s the opposite this year, and it’s a much easier way to live.

2. The depth of their lineup. Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy have all slumped to varying degrees in the two series since the Dodgers cruised past the Reds in the wild-card round, but the likes of Kiké Hernández, Tommy Edman, Teoscar Hernandez and Will Smith have picked up the slack along the way. And that’s what’s so dangerous about this team: even when their superstars are off track, others can step up. The offense never fully clicked against the Phillies or the Brewers, but that can turn at any moment — especially with Smith seemingly fully recovered from his hairline fracture.

3. Roki Sasaki. Nobody will benefit more from extended rest than the converted starting pitcher who, we should note, is still navigating his first season in the States. Sasaki recaptured his velocity, displayed immediate comfort in a high-leverage bullpen role and has dominated as the Dodgers’ newfound closer, allowing just one run in eight postseason innings. At this point, there are no restrictions with Sasaki. He can pitch in back-to-backs, he can come in mid-inning, and he can record up to nine outs, as he did in the NLDS clincher. The Dodgers might be weak in the bullpen, but if their starters are pitching deep and Sasaki is picking up most of the rest, it’s really tough to score against them. — Alden Gonzalez

Where the Dodgers are vulnerable: Even a casual observer would quickly note that the Dodgers’ bullpen is still a question mark — especially as compared to the rest of the team. The relievers have compiled a 4.88 ERA in nine playoff games after their 4.21 mark ranked 21st in that category during the regular season.

Manager Dave Roberts left nothing to chance last round, letting his starters throw all but 7⅓ innings against the Brewers with Sasaki picking up 2⅔ of those. Outside of Sasaki, no L.A. reliever has thrown more than 4⅔ innings this postseason. Getting Dodgers starters to high pitch counts is an easier-said-than-done strategy, but it could be a winning one for Toronto because getting into that pen is the Blue Jays’ best chance. — Jesse Rogers

How the Dodgers can pitch Vlad Jr.: The unique thing about Guerrero among other power hitters is his flatter swing plane. This means that while sluggers like Ohtani and the Yankees’ Aaron Judge struggle with flat four-seam fastballs at the top of the zone because their lofted swing plane doesn’t intersect much with that, Guerrero’s comparatively flat swing plane does. Guerrero also has more innate bat control, so his in-zone miss rate is lower, basically missing only on some of the fringes of the zone. But, since he doesn’t lift the ball as well, missing a spot could mean a ball hit 110-plus mph off the bat still isn’t an extra-base hit.

With this in mind, you don’t want to throw Guerrero any fastballs if you can help it and definitely need to keep them away if you’re going to throw some to set up an off-speed pitch. This sets up well for Snell, the Game 1 starter, to work away with fastballs and tunnel them with his emerging changeup.

The power righties on the Dodgers’ staff already tend to work away from right-handed hitters with their fastballs, but Guerrero’s bat speed means he’s even better against cutters/sliders than curveballs/sweepers/changeups/splitters. I’d expect Yamamoto, Glasnow and Ohtani to mix in fastballs away to keep Guerrero off of the steady diet of soft stuff away. Yamamoto’s curveball and splitter are particularly well-suited for this task while Ohtani and Glasnow are more power and velocity-oriented, even with their off-speed stuff. — Kiley McDaniel

Jeff Passan’s inside intel:

• The split-fingered fastball is the pitch of the postseason, something for which the Dodgers are thankful because of the nastiness of Yamamoto’s, Ohtani’s and Sasaki’s. But Los Angeles hitters have seen only 47 splitters (3.2% of all pitches) in October. That will decidedly change over the next week. Blue Jays pitchers have thrown splitters more than 15% of the time this postseason, and whether it’s Kevin Gausman or Trey Yesavage starting the first two games or Dominguez and Jeff Hoffman finishing them, Los Angeles’ ability to hit the split will be a deciding factor in the effectiveness of their offense.

• What’s terrifying about the Dodgers is their offense really hasn’t gotten going. Freeman and Muncy each have one RBI in Los Angeles’ 10 games, and they’re getting spun to death, with Freeman facing 38% breaking balls and Muncy 41.2%. Beyond Ohtani and Teoscar Hernandez, Dodgers hitters have just four home runs in 301 plate appearances. Their pitching has been so good that the offensive mediocrity hasn’t mattered, but they’ve also faced two pitching staffs in Philadelphia and Milwaukee that are considerably better than Toronto’s. The Blue Jays have thrown the fewest strikes by far of any playoff team. More than a quarter of opponents’ plate appearances have gone to three-ball counts. There’s real opportunity, a scout said, for the Dodgers “to break out in a big way.”

• “I want to see who wins the battle of the changeups,” another scout said, “because that is Toronto’s chance at making this a series.” Dodgers pitchers have been the kings of change this postseason, generating swings on 60.2% of their 108 changeups and misses on 60% of those swings — both the best numbers of any playoff team that got past the wild-card round. Blue Jays hitters, meanwhile, are destroying changeups, with three home runs and a slash of .579/.600/1.105 on the pitch. And, yes, it’s only 20 plate appearances that ended on a changeup, but they’ve handled them well enough to cajole pitchers into being ultra-careful. It’s strength vs. strength, the game inside the game. May the best team win.

Toronto Blue Jays

Chance of winning: 39.6% | ESPN BET odds: +175

What’s on the line for the Blue Jays: Their first championship since the glory days of 1992-93, when the Jays won back-to-back World Series with two of the most star-studded rosters ever assembled. (Roberto Alomar, Paul Molitor, John Olerud, Rickey Henderson, Joe Carter, Devon White, Dave Winfield, David Cone, Jack Morris, Dave Stewart, Jimmy Key, Juan Guzman, Pat Hentgen, Tom Henke)

A title would also give validation to an organization that has had a lot of success in recent years but went 0-6 in three previous playoff trips this decade. Validation that they made the right move in signing Guerrero to a much-criticized $500 million contract. And, of course, there’s the matter of saving us from the Dodgers ruining baseball.

Three reasons Toronto can win:

1. Low strikeout rate. The Blue Jays don’t strike out. This series could come down to which strength triumphs: Toronto’s contact rate or the Dodgers starters’ whiff rate. The Blue Jays led the majors in contact percentage (80.5%) during the regular season and they have the lowest strikeout rate (14.8%) in the postseason by a good margin. Meanwhile, L.A.’s starting pitchers have posted the highest whiff rate (39.4%) during the postseason. The Dodgers cruised to the World Series behind their historically dominant starting rotation. That dominance allowed manager Dave Roberts to avoid overexposing his underwhelming bullpen, which is their clear weakness. Getting to the Dodgers bullpen early and often is the Blue Jays’ surest path to victory. To do that, they’ll have to inflict some damage on the Dodgers’ starting rotation — or at least effectively raise pitch counts to force Roberts to hand the ball to relievers in the middle innings.

2. Defense. Remember last year, when, after winning the World Series, the Dodgers bluntly and repeatedly said that their game plan was to apply pressure on the Yankees and make them beat themselves? The Yankees’ Game 5 meltdown is infamous but a defensive miscue also proved costly in Game 1. Well, these Blue Jays are a far more sound defensive club. They ranked fourth in the majors in defensive runs saved (the Dodgers were third) and ninth in outs above average (the Dodgers were 12th) during the regular season. The prowess was recently recognized when five players were named finalists for a Gold Glove, with Ernie Clement nominated for the award at third base and as a utilityman. The Blue Jays shouldn’t give the Dodgers extra outs, and that’s a start in pulling off this upset.

3. The star duo of George Springer and Guerrero. Springer’s 2025 resurgence has continued into a throwback October performance highlighted by that go-ahead three-run home run in Game 7 of the ALCS. The Dodgers know all about Springer’s playoff prowess, eight years removed from him hitting five home runs and being named 2017 World Series MVP when Houston beat L.A. Springer’s production later became tainted by the Astros’ cheating scandal, but he still is tied for third all-time in postseason home runs with 23. Guerrero, on the other hand, had an ugly playoff history before becoming the best hitter this October, slashing .442/.510/.930 in 11 postseason games. His six home runs in these playoffs tied the franchise record for most career postseason home runs. He has twice as many walks (six) as strikeouts (three) in 51 plate appearances. The Blue Jays have received contributions from one through nine all postseason, but they need Springer and Guerrero, their two best hitters, to shine to beat the Dodgers four times. — Jorge Castillo

Where the Blue Jays are vulnerable: Neither team has a good postseason bullpen ERA but Toronto is more vulnerable in this area, if only because of workload concerns. Hoffman, after an uneven regular season, has been dynamite in the playoffs. None of the rest of the Blue Jays’ relievers have been consistent. Maybe they found something in Chris Bassitt‘s Game 7 high-leverage appearance against Seattle, but the key really will be for the Toronto starters to match the innings of their Dodgers counterparts as much as possible. That would simplify matters and keep manager John Schneider from having to improvise to the extent he did to survive the Seattle series. You never know when it comes to bullpens, but one thing we can say for sure is that the Blue Jays had to work a lot harder to get here than the Dodgers. — Bradford Doolittle

How the Blue Jays can pitch Ohtani: Similar to Judge (I broke down how to attack him, too), Ohtani will whiff, strike out and has a longer swing (look for the blue on his Statcast page). You can get him to whiff or make weak contact on the fringes of the strike zone or just outside it, but the price to pay if you miss those spots is heavy. Ohtani likes the ball middle-in and middle-up — that’s where he swings and where he does damage (and he doesn’t miss on middle-middle pitches). In response, pitchers tend to pitch him middle-down and middle-away. Throwing softer stuff (sweepers/curveballs from lefties and changeup/splitters from righties) down and away and four-seam fastballs above the top of the zone to try to get a frustrated chase out of Ohtani seems like the combination to lean into here. For Gausman and Yesavage (great splitters, just OK breaking stuff, medium velocity), that high heater is a little riskier, so leaning on splitters and overall command will be key. — McDaniel

Passan’s inside intel:

• Of all the burning questions for the Blue Jays — such as what they will do with Bo Bichette and how they fare against Los Angeles’ four aces — the most troubling could concern their lack of clear left-handed-pitching options. Considering Philadelphia and Milwaukee carved Ohtani up with a panoply of lefties, the struggles of the Blue Jays’ lefty arms this postseason plays right into the Dodgers’ hands. Three of Los Angeles’ best hitters (Ohtani, Freeman and Muncy) are lefties, and Ohtani and Muncy, in particular, are far better against right-handed pitchers. Schneider needs to figure out early in the series if any of his left-handed options (Mason Fluharty, Brendon Little, Eric Lauer) will work against the Dodgers’ boppers or if he’ll instead turn to Seranthony Dominguez (whose splitter runs away from lefty hitters) or Bassitt (with his wide array of offerings) to try to tame them.

• Based on how Blue Jays pitchers have worked during their 11 playoff games this year, Dodgers hitters should be comfortable inside the batter’s box. Toronto pitchers have thrown pitches classified as “inside” just 25.3% of the time this postseason — the lowest of any of the dozen playoff teams and lower than all 30 teams during the regular season. Toronto’s propensity to hammer the outside seems destined to put Dodgers hitters in an advantageous position. During the regular season, Los Angeles had the second-highest OPS of any team on pitches on the outer half of the plate (behind, incidentally, Toronto), and the Dodgers have hit five homers on outer-half pitches this postseason (the Blue Jays have 10).

• Toronto leads all teams in almost every offensive category this postseason. Beyond the runs scored (6.45 per game, with the Dodgers second at 4.6) and the obscenely gaudy triple-slash (.296/.355/.523, with every other team a combined .218/.297/.361), the Blue Jays are an excellent baserunning team and don’t strike out. But there are areas of weakness that Los Angeles can expose. “They can be beat with velo,” one scout said of Toronto. While the Blue Jays have batted .277 on 97-mph-plus fastballs, they’ve got only one home run against them, and keeping Toronto in the park is vital for Dodgers pitchers. Further, another scout said to “use their aggressiveness and get ahead in the count” because as much as the Blue Jays swing (52.6% of pitches and 37.7% first pitches, both MLB highs in the playoffs), they are susceptible in pitchers’ counts, with an OPS (.548) behind the Dodgers’ (.553).

Our predictions

Los Angeles Dodgers (11 votes)

Voters: Alden Gonzalez, Paul Hembekides, Kiley McDaniel, Buster Olney, Tim Keown, Doug Glanville, Jesse Rogers, Bradford Doolittle, Tim Kurkjian, Jeff Passan, Tristan Cockcroft

In how many games? Seven (1 vote), six (8 votes), five (2 votes)
MVP: Shohei Ohtani (5 votes), Mookie Betts (2 votes), Blake Snell (2 votes), Teoscar Hernandez (1 vote), Freddie Freeman (1 vote)

Toronto Blue Jays (3 votes)

Voters: Eric Karabell, David Schoenfield, Jorge Castillo

In how many games? Seven (3 votes)
MVP: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3 votes)

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Explaining our picks

Why did you pick the Dodgers to repeat as champions?

The Dodgers are winning the World Series in around 60% of my simulations, and while it’s a toss-up whether a five- or six-game outcome is more likely, I like the longer series because of a combination of Toronto’s momentum and the energy it’ll get from an amped-up home crowd. These are intangible factors but sometimes you play a hunch.

As for why the Dodgers will win …

1. The way they had to juggle starting pitchers all season has ended up having the effect of a carefully orchestrated program of load management. Snell, Glasnow and Ohtani combined for 198⅔ innings during the regular season. Only Yamamoto avoided the IL and he still barely qualified for the ERA title. Now we’re seeing how this quartet looks in high-stakes games with more or less full tanks of proverbial gas. And they look historically good.

2. L.A. has lost only once all postseason despite getting one home run in total out of the trio of Freeman, Betts and Smith. That’s probably not great news for the Blue Jays.

3. The Blue Jays have leaned on the splitter this postseason, as has been oft-noted. In terms of total splitters thrown, they have four of the top 12: Gausman (1st), Yesavage (2nd), Hoffman (8th) and Dominguez (12th).

Well, among the 199 hitters who have seen at least 50 splitters combined during the regular season and playoffs, the WOBA leaderboard against the pitch features: Freeman (.581, 1st), Betts (.579, 2nd), Muncy (.450, 14th) and Ohtani (.409, 21st). Yes, Dodgers pitchers throw a lot of splitters as well, and the Blue Jays have been the best-hitting team in the majors against them (.753 OPS, including the playoffs, versus .725 for the third-ranked Dodgers). But just look at that list of names for the Dodgers. — Doolittle

And why do you think the Blue Jays will win it all?

The Blue Jays are the one AL team that can match up with the Dodgers because they have an offense that can counter the Dodgers’ rotation and its ability to miss bats. The Blue Jays had the lowest strikeout rate in the majors in the regular season (17.8%) and have been even better in the playoffs (14.8%) while averaging 6.5 runs per game and hitting 20 home runs in 11 games.

That’s the primary reason to believe in the Jays, but here are a few of the other reasons why I think they’ll beat the Dodgers:

• When Guerrero is hot like this, he has the bat control and plate discipline to do damage against even the best pitching.

• In Springer, the Jays have one of the great October performers of the wild-card era. He has a .939 OPS and four home runs this postseason and provides an immediate threat at the top of the Toronto lineup.

• The bottom of the order did a lot of damage in the ALCS, with the 7-8-9 hitters batting .284/.338/.500 with 13 runs and 12 RBIs. Neither the Phillies nor the Brewers had the bottom-of-the-lineup production that the Jays can offer.

• The Jays have done all this without Bichette, who hit .311 with 94 RBIs in the regular season, but has missed the playoffs with a knee injury. He may be ready for the World Series and while it’s probably unlikely he’ll play the field, he might be a possibility for DH, if Springer can play the outfield after getting hit on the knee in Game 5 against the Mariners.

• Toronto’s rotation has a 3.33 ERA in the playoffs while holding opponents to a .214 average. Gausman lines up against any of the Dodgers aces, with just four runs allowed in his three starts and rookie Trey Yesavage has a unique delivery combined with plus-plus stuff that can be dominant if he throws enough strikes, while Shane Bieber and Max Scherzer are certainly capable

• Blue Jays closer Jeff Hoffman has allowed just one run so far in 7⅓ innings this postseason (with 12 strikeouts and two walks).

• The Jays have lefties in the bullpen to counter Ohtani and Freeman. Mason Fluharty held lefties to a .182 average and Brendon Little a .195 average while Eric Lauer provides a long relief option if needed.

• Defense matters, and the Jays have Gold Glove finalists in center fielder Daulton Varsho, catcher Alejandro Kirk and infielders Andres Gimenez and Ernie Clement.

Finally: The Dodgers bullpen will blow a game. Or two. — Schoenfield