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EV sales will continue to grow despite the mixed near-term outlook, according to a new report from BloombergNEF – here’s why.

BloombergNEF’s Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook (EVO) indicates that rapidly falling battery prices, advancements in next-gen battery technology, and improving relative economics of EVs with ICE counterparts continue to underpin long-term EV growth globally. However, the report indicates that the window to reach global net-zero transport is now narrower than ever. Here are seven top-line findings that I pulled from the report:

Global passenger EV sales continue to grow, but at a slower pace in the next few years than before.

Passenger EV sales are expected to exceed 30 million in 2027 in BNEF’s base case scenario and grow to 73 million per year in 2040.

In the next four years, electric car sales grow at an average of 21% per year in BloombergNEF’s Economic Transition Scenario – in which EV adoption is shaped by current techno-economic trends and with no new policy intervention – compared to the average of 61% between 2020 and 2023.

The EV share of global new passenger vehicle sales jumps to 33% in 2027, from 17.8% in 2023. Only China (60%) and Europe (41%) are above that global average by then. EV sales in Brazil quintuple by 2027 and triple in India.

ICE vehicle sales have peaked. ICE vehicle sales peaked in 2017 and by 2027 are 29% lower than their peak in the report’s outlook. BloombergNEF says its economic analysis indicates that EVs are the primary method of decarbonizing road transport. It also asserts that hybrids can play a meaningful role in the near term, in particular in markets with increasingly stringent fuel-efficiency rules. Hybrid adoption reaches between 5% and 45% of sales by 2030 in its outlook, depending on the market.

Electric heavy trucks become economically viable for most use cases by 2030. In heavier segments, battery electric trucks are mostly used in urban duty cycles at first. But their economics improve even for long-haul routes and around 2030 approach those of diesel powertrains. The outlook on fuel-cell trucks is far less certain.

Lithium-iron-phosphate batteries (LFP) are taking over the EV market. Improvements in LFP technology are increasing its market share, particularly in China, where cell prices have fallen rapidly to $53/kWh so far this year. LFP crosses 50% share of the global passenger EV market within the next two years in BloombergNEF’s outlook. Nickel and manganese are set to feel the most pressure as a result. Due to the shift toward lower-cost chemistries, nickel and manganese consumption by 2025 is 25% and 38% lower, respectively, this year than in the previous outlook.

To meet the growing EV electricity demand, the charging industry will need to mature rapidly over the next decade. Between $1.6 trillion and $2.5 trillion in cumulative investment is required in charging infrastructure, installation, and maintenance by 2050, depending on the scenario.

Overcapacity is a big issue for battery makers. Planned lithium-ion cell manufacturing capacity by the end of 2025 is over five times the 1.5 TWh global battery demand expected that year. Annual lithium-battery demand grows rapidly in BloombergNEF’s Economic Transition Scenario, approaching 5.9 terawatt-hours annually by 2035.

Reaching a global zero-emission fleet by 2050 needs a much faster transition. Despite the progress, global road transport is still not on course for a net-zero trajectory. By 2035, there are 476 million EVs on the road, rising to 722 million by 2040, accounting for 45% of the fleet. In the net zero by 2050 scenario, this is 679 million and 1.1 billion, respectively.

BNEF’s net zero scenario calls for 100% of the road-going car fleet to be electric by 2050, but its base case Economic Transition Scenario only achieves 69% in 2050.

Read more: Germany is No 1 in Europe for EV production, No 2 in the world


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Lectric Ebikes may be launching a new XP 4 this week, and it could change everything

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Lectric Ebikes may be launching a new XP 4 this week, and it could change everything

Lectric Ebikes appears to be preparing for a major new product launch, teasing what looks like the next evolution of its wildly popular folding fat tire electric bike. Based on the clues, it looks like a new Lectric XP 4 could be inbound.

In a social media post released over the weekend, the company shared a minimalist graphic reading “XP4” along with the message “Tune in 5.6.2025 9:30AM PT.” That date – this Tuesday – suggests we’re just hours away from the big reveal of the Lectric XP 4.

If true, this would mark the next generation of the most successful electric bike in the U.S. market. The current model, the Lectric XP 3.0, has become an icon of accessible, budget-friendly electric mobility. Starting at just $999, the XP 3.0 offers a foldable frame, fat tires, a 500W motor, a rear rack, lights, and hydraulic brakes – all packed into a highly shippable design that arrives fully assembled. It’s the kind of package that has helped Lectric claim the title of best-selling e-bike brand in the U.S. for several years in a row.

With the XP 3.0 still going strong, the teaser raises plenty of questions. Will the XP 4.0 be a modest update or a major leap forward? Could we see new features like torque-sensing pedal assist, a location tracking option, or upgraded performance? Or is Lectric preparing a more comfort-oriented variant, maybe even with upgraded suspension or even more accessories included standard?

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The teaser image, which features stylized stripes in grey, blue, and black, may hold some clues. One theory is that the colors represent new trim options or component upgrades. Another possibility is that Lectric is preparing multiple variants of the XP 4.0 – perhaps targeting commuters, adventurers, and off-road riders with purpose-built versions. We took the liberty of a bit of rampant speculation late last year, so perhaps that’s now worth a revisit.

At the same time though, Lectric’s penchant for launching new models at unbelievably affordable prices has never run up against such strong pricing headwinds as those posed by uncertainty in the current US-global trade war fueled by rapidly changing tariffs for imported goods.

lectric xp 3.0 hydraulic
Previous versions of the Lectric XP e-bike line have seen sky-high sales

Whatever the case, Lectric’s knack for surprising the industry with high-value, customer-focused e-bikes means expectations will be high. The brand has built a loyal following by delivering reliable performance at a price point that few can match, and any major update to the XP lineup is likely to ripple across the market.

As a young and energetic e-bike company, Lectric is also known for throwing impressive parties around the launch of new models. It looks like I may need to hop on a red-eye to Phoenix so I can see for myself – and so I can bring you all along, of course.

Be sure to tune in Tuesday at 9:30AM PT to see what Lectric has in store – and you can bet we’ll have all the details and first impressions as soon as they drop.

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U.S. crude oil prices fall more than 4% after OPEC+ agrees to surge production in June

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U.S. crude oil prices fall more than 4% after OPEC+ agrees to surge production in June

Logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)

Andrey Rudakov | Bloomberg | Getty Images

U.S. crude oil futures fell more than 4% on Sunday, after OPEC+ agreed to surge production for a second month.

U.S. crude was down $2.49, or 4.27%, to $55.80 a barrel shortly after trading opened. Global benchmark Brent fell $2.39, or 3.9%, to $58.90 per barrel. Oil prices have fallen more than 20% this year.

The eight producers in the group, led by Saudi Arabia, agreed on Saturday to increase output by another 411,000 barrels per day in June. The decision comes a month after OPEC+ surprised the market by agreeing to surge production in May by the same amount.

The June production hike is nearly triple the 140,000 bpd that Goldman Sachs had originally forecast. OPEC+ is bringing more than 800,000 bpd of additional supply to the market over the course of two months.

Oil prices in April posted the biggest monthly loss since 2021, as U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs have raised fears of a recession that will slow demand at the same time that OPEC+ is quickly increasing supply.

Oilfield service firms such as Baker Hughes and SLB are expecting investment in exploration and production to decline this year due to the weak price environment.

“The prospects of an oversupplied oil market, rising tariffs, uncertainty in Mexico and activity weakness in Saudi Arabia are collectively constraining international upstream spending levels,” Baker Hughes CEO Lorenzo Simonelli said on the company’s first-quarter earnings call on April 25.

Oil majors Chevron and Exxon reported first-quarter earnings last week that fell compared to the same period in 2024 due to lower oil prices.

Goldman is forecasting that U.S. crude and Brent prices will average $59 and $63 per barrel, respectively, this year.

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Chicago plans more, and more equitable public charging as EV sales climb

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Chicago plans more, and more equitable public charging as EV sales climb

Electric vehicles’ share of the market continues to climb in America’s second city, with BEV registrations up more than 50% in the first quarter of 2025 compared with the same period last year. Great news, but charging hasn’t up – but a new plan from Chicago Department of Transportation aims to build up enough infrastructure for the city to keep up.

In a bid to keep up with the rapid growth of EVs, Chicago Department of Transportation (CDOT is currently seeking public feedback on a plan called “Chicago Moves Electric Framework.” The city’s first such plan, it outlines initiatives that include a curbside charging pilot through the city’s utility, ComEd, and expanded charging access in key areas throughout the city.

Unlike other such plans, however, the new plan aims to focus on bringing electric vehicle charging to EIEC and low income communities, too.

“Through this framework, we are setting clear goals and identifying solutions that reflect the voices of our residents, communities, and regional partners,” said CDOT Commissioner Tom Carney. “By prioritizing equity and public input, we’re creating a roadmap for electric transportation that serves every neighborhood and helps drive down emissions across Chicago.”

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Neighborhoods on the south and west sides of Chicago experience a disproportionate amount of air pollution and diesel emissions, largely due to vehicle emissions according to CDOT. Despite that, most of Chicago’s public charging stations are clustered in higher-income areas while just 7.8% are in environmental justice neighborhoods that face higher environmental burdens.

“Too often, communities facing the greatest economic and transportation barriers also experience the most air pollution,” explains Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson. “By prioritizing investments in historically underserved areas and making clean transportation options more affordable and accessible, we can improve both mobility and public health.”

The Framework identifies other near-term policy objectives, as well – such as streamlining the EV charger installation process for businesses and residents and implementing “Low-Emission Zones” in areas disproportionately impacted by air pollution by limiting, or even restricting, access to conventional medium- and heavy-duty vehicles during peak hours.

The Chicago Moves Electric Framework includes the installation of Level 2 and DC fast charging stations in public locations such as libraries and Chicago’s Midway Airport, “supporting not only personal EVs but also electric taxis, ride-hail and commercial fleets.”

Chicago has a goal of installing 2,500 public passenger EV charging stations and electrifying the city’s entire municipal vehicle fleet by 2035.

Electrek’s Take

Chicago Drives Electric | ComEd Press Conference
ComEd press conference at Chicago Drives Electric, 2024; by the author.

I hate to sound like a bed-wetting liberal here, guys, but Chicago is getting EVs absolutely right with big utility incentives on both vehicles and infrastructure, a governor willing to stand behind smart environmental policy, and a solid push for more and better infrastructure in the areas where they’ll do the most good. They’re even thinking of the children.

Here’s hoping more cities follow suit.

SOURCE: ComEd, via Smart Cities Dive; featured image by EVgo.

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