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EV sales will continue to grow despite the mixed near-term outlook, according to a new report from BloombergNEF – here’s why.

BloombergNEF’s Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook (EVO) indicates that rapidly falling battery prices, advancements in next-gen battery technology, and improving relative economics of EVs with ICE counterparts continue to underpin long-term EV growth globally. However, the report indicates that the window to reach global net-zero transport is now narrower than ever. Here are seven top-line findings that I pulled from the report:

Global passenger EV sales continue to grow, but at a slower pace in the next few years than before.

Passenger EV sales are expected to exceed 30 million in 2027 in BNEF’s base case scenario and grow to 73 million per year in 2040.

In the next four years, electric car sales grow at an average of 21% per year in BloombergNEF’s Economic Transition Scenario – in which EV adoption is shaped by current techno-economic trends and with no new policy intervention – compared to the average of 61% between 2020 and 2023.

The EV share of global new passenger vehicle sales jumps to 33% in 2027, from 17.8% in 2023. Only China (60%) and Europe (41%) are above that global average by then. EV sales in Brazil quintuple by 2027 and triple in India.

ICE vehicle sales have peaked. ICE vehicle sales peaked in 2017 and by 2027 are 29% lower than their peak in the report’s outlook. BloombergNEF says its economic analysis indicates that EVs are the primary method of decarbonizing road transport. It also asserts that hybrids can play a meaningful role in the near term, in particular in markets with increasingly stringent fuel-efficiency rules. Hybrid adoption reaches between 5% and 45% of sales by 2030 in its outlook, depending on the market.

Electric heavy trucks become economically viable for most use cases by 2030. In heavier segments, battery electric trucks are mostly used in urban duty cycles at first. But their economics improve even for long-haul routes and around 2030 approach those of diesel powertrains. The outlook on fuel-cell trucks is far less certain.

Lithium-iron-phosphate batteries (LFP) are taking over the EV market. Improvements in LFP technology are increasing its market share, particularly in China, where cell prices have fallen rapidly to $53/kWh so far this year. LFP crosses 50% share of the global passenger EV market within the next two years in BloombergNEF’s outlook. Nickel and manganese are set to feel the most pressure as a result. Due to the shift toward lower-cost chemistries, nickel and manganese consumption by 2025 is 25% and 38% lower, respectively, this year than in the previous outlook.

To meet the growing EV electricity demand, the charging industry will need to mature rapidly over the next decade. Between $1.6 trillion and $2.5 trillion in cumulative investment is required in charging infrastructure, installation, and maintenance by 2050, depending on the scenario.

Overcapacity is a big issue for battery makers. Planned lithium-ion cell manufacturing capacity by the end of 2025 is over five times the 1.5 TWh global battery demand expected that year. Annual lithium-battery demand grows rapidly in BloombergNEF’s Economic Transition Scenario, approaching 5.9 terawatt-hours annually by 2035.

Reaching a global zero-emission fleet by 2050 needs a much faster transition. Despite the progress, global road transport is still not on course for a net-zero trajectory. By 2035, there are 476 million EVs on the road, rising to 722 million by 2040, accounting for 45% of the fleet. In the net zero by 2050 scenario, this is 679 million and 1.1 billion, respectively.

BNEF’s net zero scenario calls for 100% of the road-going car fleet to be electric by 2050, but its base case Economic Transition Scenario only achieves 69% in 2050.

Read more: Germany is No 1 in Europe for EV production, No 2 in the world


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Dealers are slashing prices on 2025 Kia Niro EV, nearly 25% off!

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Dealers are slashing prices on 2025 Kia Niro EV, nearly 25% off!

Just like it says on the tin – retailers are advertising killer deals on the fun-to-drive Kia Niro EV, with one midwest auto dealer reporting more than $10,000 off the sticker price of the Niro EV Wind. That’s nearly 25% off the top line price!

SKIP THE STORYget straight to the deals.

The Kia Niro EV gets overshadowed by its objectively excellent EV6 and EV9 stablemates – both of which are currently available with substantial lease cash and 0% APR financing, in fact – but that doesn’t mean it’s not an excellent little electric runabout in its own right.

The last time I had a Niro EV tester, my kids loved it, I liked that it was quicker and more tossable than I expected it to be, and my wife liked the fact that “it doesn’t look electric. It looks normal.” And, with well over 200 miles of real world range (EPA-rated range is 253 miles), it was more than up to the task of commuting around Chicago and making the trip up to the Great Wolf Lodge in Gurnee and back without even needing to look for a charger.

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It’s not the primary family hauler I’d choose – but as a second car? As a primary car for a slightly smaller family (1-2 kids, instead of 3-4)? The Kia Niro EV Wind, with a $42,470 MSRP, seems like a solid, “can’t go wrong” sort of choice. You know?

You won’t even have to pay that much, though. Raymond Kia in Antioch, Illinois is advertising a $42,470 Niro EV for $32,431 (that’s $10,039, or about 24% off the MSRP), and several others are advertising prices in the $33,000 range.

And, while we’re at it:


SOURCE | IMAGES: CarsDirect, Edmunds, Raymond Kia.


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Lion Electric leaves US school districts stuck with unsafe, broken buses

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Lion Electric leaves US school districts stuck with unsafe, broken buses

Many school districts who used EPA funding to help purchase Lion Electric school buses are now stuck with broken down or unsafe vehicles – but Lion’s new Canadian investors seemingly have no plans to make things right.

“All four Lion buses that we own are currently parked and not being used,” Coleen Souza, interim transportation director of Winthrop Public Schools, told Jay Traugott over at Clean Trucking. “Two of them are in need of repairs which would cost us money which we are not willing to invest in because the buses do not run for more than a month before needing more repairs.”

The story is much the same at other US school districts who deployed Lion Electric buses over the last few years – and the trouble they describe isn’t isolated to a single component or system. One district we spoke to had onboard chargers that failed almost immediately after being plugged into a L2 AC charger. Another that spoke to Traugott reported emergency door gaps, power steering failure, loss of power, and braking issues.

As bad as the revelations of safety and drivability issues and $250 million in unresolved debt have been, it’s the objectively stupid design choices that have been the most shocking.

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“Lion built an auxiliary diesel heater to heat the bus, essentially writing the manual as they went,” explained a school superintendent in the midwest, who asked not to be named. “It was fascinating to watch but there were design flaws with the heater. For example, the intakes pointed downward and we’re driving across rural roads and the intake sucks in that dirt.”

“Using a diesel-powered heater to warm an electric bus also somewhat defeats the purpose of going 100% zero-emissions,” added Traugott.

Despite a new electric school bus rebate and a fresh cash injection from Vincent Chiara, president of Quebec real estate powerhouse Groupe MACH, and Lion director Pierre Wilkie, however, it seems like no help is coming.

It just gets worse and worse


Decommissioned Lion electric buses; via Winthrop Public Schools.

Despite early speculation – some of it my own, in fact – that the new investors would take the Canadian government up on its offer to help subsidize more electric school bus production and honor the company’s outstanding warranty claims, it appears the only vehicle line the new investors are interested in reviving are the the Class 8 electric semi manufacturing operations in Saint-Jérôme, Quebec.

The US school districts who spent tens of millions of taxpayer dollars in the hopes that Lion buses would help decarbonize their fleets and reduce students’ exposure to harmful diesel emissions? Many of them are back to using diesel, while others are trying to get their deposits back so they can buy something else.

Here’s hoping any school districts on the fence for electrification recognize that their are very real, very well-engineered, and very financially sound electric school bus manufacturers out there who can deliver on their promises.

SOURCES: Chicago Tribune, Clean Trucking, Electrical Business.


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Mitsubishi debuts EV battery swap network for cars AND trucks in Tokyo

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Mitsubishi debuts EV battery swap network for cars AND trucks in Tokyo

Mitsubishi is partnering with Ample and Yamoto Transports to deploy an innovative new battery swap network for electric cars in its Japanese home market — but it’s not just for electric cars. Mitsubishi Fuso commercial trucks are getting in on the action, too!

Despite a number of early EV adopters with an overdeveloped concept of ownership, battery swap technology has proven to be both extremely effective and extremely positive to the overall EV ownership experience. And when you see how simple it is to add hundreds of miles of driving in just 100 seconds — quicker, in many cases, than pumping a tank of liquid fuel into an ICE-powered car — you might come around, yourself.

That seems to be what Mitsubishi thinks, anyway, and they’re hoping they’ll be your go-to choice when it’s time to electrify your regional and last-mile commercial delivery fleet(s) by launching a multi-year pilot program to deploy more than 150 battery-swappable commercial electric vehicles and 14 modular battery swapping stations across Tokyo, where the company plans to showcase its “five minute charging” tech in full view of hundreds of commercial fleets and, crucially, the executives of the companies that own and manage them.

How battery swap works for electric trucks
How battery swap works for electric trucks; via Mitsubishi Fuso.

A truck like the Mitsubishi eCanter typically requires a full night of AC charging to top off its batteries, and at least an hour or two on DC charging in Japan, according to Fuso. This joint pilot by Mitsubishi, Mitsubishi Fuso Trucks, and Ample aims to circumvent this issue of forced downtime with its swappable batteries, supporting vehicle uptime by delivering a full charge within minutes. The move is meant to encourage the transport industry’s EV shift while creating a depository of stored energy that can be deployed to the grid in the event of a natural disaster — something Mitsubishi in Japan has been working on for years.

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Trucks like the eCanter already serve a number of roles throughout the global truck market, including municipal waste collection, regional delivery support, and more.

The pilot is backed by Tokyo Metropolitan Government’s “Technology Development Support Project for Promoting New Energy,” with local delivery operator Yamato Transport testing swappable EVs for delivery operations on both its eCanter light-duty trucks and Mitsubishi Minicab kei-class electric vans.

Electrek’s Take


Fuso eCanter battery swap; via Mitsubishi.

Electrifying the commercial truck fleet is a key part of decarbonizing city truck fleets – not just here in the US, but around the world. I called the eCanter, “a great product for moving stuff around densely packed city streets,” and eliminating the corporate fear of EV charging in the wild just makes it an even better product for that purpose.

Here’s hoping we see more “right size” electric solutions like this one (and more battery swapping tech) in small towns and tight urban environments stateside somewhat sooner than later.

SOURCES | IMAGES: Mitsubishi, Fuso.


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