EV sales aren’t ‘lagging’ – they’re headed for long-term growth
EV sales will continue to grow despite the mixed near-term outlook, according to a new report from BloombergNEF – here’s why.
BloombergNEF’s Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook (EVO) indicates that rapidly falling battery prices, advancements in next-gen battery technology, and improving relative economics of EVs with ICE counterparts continue to underpin long-term EV growth globally. However, the report indicates that the window to reach global net-zero transport is now narrower than ever. Here are seven top-line findings that I pulled from the report:
Global passenger EV sales continue to grow, but at a slower pace in the next few years than before.
Passenger EV sales are expected to exceed 30 million in 2027 in BNEF’s base case scenario and grow to 73 million per year in 2040.
In the next four years, electric car sales grow at an average of 21% per year in BloombergNEF’s Economic Transition Scenario – in which EV adoption is shaped by current techno-economic trends and with no new policy intervention – compared to the average of 61% between 2020 and 2023.
The EV share of global new passenger vehicle sales jumps to 33% in 2027, from 17.8% in 2023. Only China (60%) and Europe (41%) are above that global average by then. EV sales in Brazil quintuple by 2027 and triple in India.
ICE vehicle sales have peaked. ICE vehicle sales peaked in 2017 and by 2027 are 29% lower than their peak in the report’s outlook. BloombergNEF says its economic analysis indicates that EVs are the primary method of decarbonizing road transport. It also asserts that hybrids can play a meaningful role in the near term, in particular in markets with increasingly stringent fuel-efficiency rules. Hybrid adoption reaches between 5% and 45% of sales by 2030 in its outlook, depending on the market.
Electric heavy trucks become economically viable for most use cases by 2030. In heavier segments, battery electric trucks are mostly used in urban duty cycles at first. But their economics improve even for long-haul routes and around 2030 approach those of diesel powertrains. The outlook on fuel-cell trucks is far less certain.
Lithium-iron-phosphate batteries (LFP) are taking over the EV market. Improvements in LFP technology are increasing its market share, particularly in China, where cell prices have fallen rapidly to $53/kWh so far this year. LFP crosses 50% share of the global passenger EV market within the next two years in BloombergNEF’s outlook. Nickel and manganese are set to feel the most pressure as a result. Due to the shift toward lower-cost chemistries, nickel and manganese consumption by 2025 is 25% and 38% lower, respectively, this year than in the previous outlook.
To meet the growing EV electricity demand, the charging industry will need to mature rapidly over the next decade. Between $1.6 trillion and $2.5 trillion in cumulative investment is required in charging infrastructure, installation, and maintenance by 2050, depending on the scenario.
Overcapacity is a big issue for battery makers. Planned lithium-ion cell manufacturing capacity by the end of 2025 is over five times the 1.5 TWh global battery demand expected that year. Annual lithium-battery demand grows rapidly in BloombergNEF’s Economic Transition Scenario, approaching 5.9 terawatt-hours annually by 2035.
Reaching a global zero-emission fleet by 2050 needs a much faster transition. Despite the progress, global road transport is still not on course for a net-zero trajectory. By 2035, there are 476 million EVs on the road, rising to 722 million by 2040, accounting for 45% of the fleet. In the net zero by 2050 scenario, this is 679 million and 1.1 billion, respectively.
BNEF’s net zero scenario calls for 100% of the road-going car fleet to be electric by 2050, but its base case Economic Transition Scenario only achieves 69% in 2050.
Read more: Germany is No 1 in Europe for EV production, No 2 in the world
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Fueled by incentives from the Illinois EPA and the state’s largest utility company, new EV registrations nearly quadrupled the 12% first-quarter increase in EV registrations nationally – and there are no signs the state is slowing down.
Despite the dramatic slowdown of Tesla’s US deliveries, sales of electric vehicles overall have perked up in recent months, with Illinois’ EV adoption rate well above the Q1 uptick nationally. Crain’s Chicago Business reports that the number of new EVs registered across the state totaled 9,821 January through March, compared with “just” 6,535 EVs registered in the state during the same period in 2024.
Those numbers represent more than 50% growth in EV registrations – far beyond the expected 12% first-quarter increase nationally being projected by Cox Automotive. (!)
What’s going on in Illinois?
While President Trump and Elmo were running for re-election, they campaigned on the threat promise of canceling the $7,500 federal tax credit for EVs. Along with California Governor Gavin Newsom, Illinois’ Governor JB Pritzker made countermoves – launching a $4,000 rebate for new electric cars and up to $1,500 for the purchase of a new electric motorcycle.
At the same time, the state’s largest utility, ComEd, launched a $90 million EV incentive program featuring a new Point of Purchase initiative to deliver instant discounts to qualifying business and public sector customers who make the switch to electric vehicles. That program has driven a surge in Class 3-6 medium duty commercial EVs, which are eligible fro $20-30,000 in utility rebates on top of federal tax credits and other incentives (Class 1-2 EVs are eligible for up to $7,500).
We covered the launch of those incentives when the program was announced at Chicago Drives Electric last year, but the message here is simple: incentives work.
SOURCES: Chicago Business, Ray Cunningham; featured image by the author.
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The electric construction equipment experts at XCMG just released a new, 25 ton electric crawler excavator ahead of bauma 2025 – and they have their eye on the global urban construction, mine operations, and logistical material handling markets.
Powered by a high-capacity 400 kWh lithium iron phosphate battery capable of delivering up to 8 hours of continuous operation, the XE215EV electric excavator promises uninterrupted operation at a lower cost of ownership and with even less downtime than its diesel counterparts.
XCMG is delivering on part of that reduced downtime promise with the lower maintenance and easier repair needs of electric equipment, and delivering on the rest of it with lickety-quick DC fast charging that can recharge the machine’s massive battery in 1.5-2 hours … but that’s not the slick bit. The XCMG XE125EV can be powered up without leaving the job site thanks to its BYD battery swap technology.
We first covered XCMG and its battery swap technology back in January, and covered similar battery-swap tech being developed by MOOG Construction offshoot ZQUIP, as well – but while XCMG’s battery tech has been in production for several years, it’s still not widely known about in the West (even within the industry).
XCMG showed off its latest electric equipment at the December 2024 bauma China, including an updated version of its of its 85-ton autonomous electric mining truck that features a fully cab-less design – meaning there isn’t even a place for an operator to sit, let alone operate. And that’s too bad, because what operator wouldn’t want to experience an electric truck putting down 1070 hp more than 16,000 lb-ft of torque!?
Easy in, easy out
The best part? All of the company’s heavy equipment assets – from excavators to terminal tractors to dump trucks and wheel loaders – all use the same 400 kWh BYD battery packs, Milwaukee tool style. That means an equipment fleet can utilize x number of vehicles with a fraction of the total battery capacity and material needs of other asset brands. That’s not just a smart use of limited materials, it’s a smarter use of energy.
You can check out all the XE215EV’s specs at this tear sheet, and get an in-person look at the Chinese company’s latest electric excavator this week in Munich, Germany.
SOURCE | IMAGES: XCMG.
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As “extreme” weather events become more commonplace, the demand for reliable and portable energy continues to rise. In response to that growing demand for dependable off-grid power, Volvo has developed the new PU500 Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) designed to take electrical power when it’s needed most.
Designed to be deployable in a number of environments at a moment’s notice, the Volvo Energy PU500 BESS is equipped with approximately 500 kWh of usable battery capacity (up to 540 kWh total). More than enough juice, in other words, to power a remote construction site, disaster response effort, or even a music festival – anything that needs access to reliable electricity beyond a grid connection.
That’s great, but what sets the PU500 apart from other battery storage solutions is its integrated 240 kW DC fast charger.
“With an integrated CCS2 charger, the PU500 is designed to work with all brands of electric equipment, trucks, and passenger cars,” says Niklas Thulin, Head of BESS Product Offer at Volvo Energy. “This ensures that no matter what type of electric vehicle or machinery you rely on, the PU500 can provide the power you need, making it a truly flexible solution for any grid constrained site or location.”
The integrated charger in the PU500 has the impressive ability to charge a heavy equipment asset (be that an electric semi truck or something like a wheel loader) in under two hours. Its on-board capacity allows to fully recharge up to 3 electric HD trucks or 20 electric cars per day, making it an incredibly versatile disaster response asset.
Electrek’s Take
As we often say over at The Heavy Equipment Podcast, “just because you’re working for the power company doesn’t mean you have power,” and there are hundreds of scenarios where the extra power provided by something like the new PU500 would be useful. Its ability to be palletized and easily moved or swapped out of a larger BESS array, too, just add to its flexibility.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Volvo.
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