Five questions leaders could face in tonight’s Sky News event – and what the data really says
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer will be interrogated by Sky’s political editor Beth Rigby and members of the public tonight.
During The Battle For Number 10, they will talk and be questioned at length about their ambitions, so viewers can understand in detail what their plans are.
Mr Sunak is somewhat on the back foot as he has to defend his party’s 14 years in government, while Labour is yet to publish its manifesto, making it harder to get to the bottom of some of its plans.
But here Sky News picks apart some of the claims – and counterclaims – each is likely to make.
Cost of living
Labour likes to claim families have become £5,883 worse off in total over the last five years.
But fact-checking organisation Full Fact pointed out the figure doesn’t take into account a broad enough basket of goods, or changes in wages or benefits over the same time.
Factoring these in, the decrease in real disposable income is more like £166, the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has found.
Meanwhile the Tories claim Labour would leave families £2,000 out of pocket. But the calculations behind it are based on assumptions, as Labour has not yet published its manifesto, and the Tories assume Labour’s plans would be funded by taxes rather than possible borrowing.
Mr Sunak defends his record on the basis of the COVID furlough scheme – which he oversaw as chancellor – and the fact inflation has finally fallen to 2.3%, down from a 42-year record high of 11.1% in October 2022.
But external factors worked in the PM’s favour.
The worst price shocks from the war in Ukraine (namely on fuel and food) eased regardless of government policies.
However, falling inflation does not mean falling prices, and any amount of inflation still means prices are rising on top of already higher costs.
Wage growth has now overtaken inflation – but there’s still a gap between how much prices have increased vs wages in the long run, according to ONS data.
This, combined with stubbornly high interest rates which increase the cost of mortgage rates and other loans, explains why people are still feeling the pinch.
NHS
The waiting list for NHS England peaked at 7.8 million last August – and has since inched down to 7.5 million.
But as other parties love to point out, it is still 300,000 appointments higher than the 7.2 million in January 2023, when Mr Sunak originally pledged to cut it.
Labour says it would get waiting times back down to a maximum of four months – as per the NHS target – by the end of their first term.
They’d do this by adding “40,000 extra appointments and operations every week”, including more on evenings and weekends, and buying more equipment.
Sky News analysis has shown that these measures alone may do little to bridge the gap, however.
It takes five additional NHS appointments to remove one treatment pathway from the waiting list, according to thinktank The Heath Foundation.
With this conversion rate, Labour’s 40,000 additional appointments equates to 8,000 removed from the waiting list, shown in the bar in orange in the chart above – still falling far short of tackling demand.
Migration
Both leaders are keen to position themselves as tough on migration, saying that the record levels of net migration since Brexit in 2016 – reaching 685,000 last year – are too high.
Mr Sunak claims his plans, which include the controversial Rwanda deportation policy and an unspecified cap on net migration numbers, are the answer.
But, as Sky News analysis has already shown, caps have failed in the past.
Former prime ministers David Cameron and Theresa May both vowed to cap net migration in the “tens of thousands”. Both failed.
Meanwhile, the Rwanda policy addresses only a tiny fraction of overall numbers, despite its hefty price tag.
It is already set to cost £370m before any removals take place, according to government spending watchdog the National Audit Office (NAO), and could reach an estimated £661m.
It is designed to deter small boats crossings, but these make up only a fraction of asylum claims, and asylum seekers accounted for only 81,000 migrants last year, compared with 432,000 workers and 379,000 students.
Labour have confirmed they will scrap the scheme “straight away”, while the Conservatives have a poor track record of implementing the scheme, so it remains to be seen what the final bill will be.
Nearly two thirds (64%) of 229,000 workers visas granted in 2023 were for healthcare roles like nurses and care workers.
The Tories say their Albania deal shows that deterrence works, with numbers down 90%.
Labour has pledged to “reform resettlement routes to stop people being exploited by gangs”.
Climate and net zero
A key dividing line is whether to pump more oil and gas from the North Sea.
Mr Sunak wants to “max out” what’s left. Labour says it would stop issuing licences for new projects.
But even though it opposes them, if elected Labour would not actually revoke those handed out by the Tories – which environmentalists have criticised.
The Conservative manifesto says more extraction would “provide energy to homes and businesses across the country”.
But it’s somewhat of a storm in a teacup, because there isn’t much oil or gas left in the North Sea anyway.
The red and blue lines in the chart above show how much – or little – extra the UK might get from new licences – so the decision is more symbolic.
The Tories say they will back renewables, but haven’t really lifted an effective ban on onshore wind farms as promised. Labour wants to double onshore wind power to 35GW by 2030.
Labour’s plans to plug the wells in the North Sea are already putting off some oil majors from turning on the taps at existing projects – and could kill off thousands of jobs, the industry lobby group Offshore Energies UK says.
In reality the parties are more aligned than some of their members would have us believe.
Both back some form of windfall tax until 2029, want to decarbonise most or all electricity by 2030, plan to drive up EVs and want to ramp up solar and offshore wind.
D-Day gaffe
It seems no one in Sunak’s team thought an early departure from D-Day commemorations in Normandy would matter.
But oh how it did, drawing criticism from his own party, as well as Labour, and the general public alike.
The polls have not been kind either.
A snap YouGov survey showed two thirds (65%) of those surveyed found the behaviour to be completely or somewhat unacceptable. This rose to three quarters (75%) among the 65+ age group.
This was a gift to Labour, and something Starmer will likely want to capitalise on during tonight’s debate.
The Battle For Number 10 Leaders Special Event, Wednesday 12 June 7pm-10pm on Sky News – free wherever you get your news.
Freeview channel 233, Sky 501, Virgin 603, BT 313 and streaming on the Sky News website, app and across social channels. It is also available to watch on Sky Showcase.
The Australian crypto industry has called on the newly reelected Labor government to urgently make digital asset legislation a top priority to ensure Australia doesn’t fall further behind global markets.
The incumbent Australian Labor Party was returned in a landslide on May 3, picking up 54.9% of the two-party-preferred vote, against the Liberal and National Parties on 45.1%. Both parties went to the election promising crypto law reform, but only the opposition pledged to deliver draft legislation within 100 days.
Joy Lam, Binance’s head of global regulatory and APAC legal, said the exchange has been consulting with Treasury officials since late 2023 about its proposed legislation, and it was now time for action.
“Timing is really quite critical now because obviously it’s something that has been discussed and kicked around for quite a few years,” she told Cointelegraph.
Coinbase managing director for APAC John O’Loghlen said the reelected Albanese Government has the “opportunity and the responsibility to move quickly on this issue” and called for a Crypto-Asset Taskforce to be established within its first 100 days “with the aim of bringing forward legislation that protects consumers, promotes innovation, and stops the exodus of talent and capital to other markets.”
BTC Markets CEO Caroline Bowler said that “beyond the political implications, this result sets the stage for meaningful progress in Australia’s approach to digital asset regulation.”
Lam noted that the UK released its draft regulations last week, stablecoin bills are moving forward in the US, and the EU has already implemented its MiCA legislation.
“So there’s a very clear shift. Everyone’s moving towards providing the regulatory framework that is needed for the industry to develop in a sustainable way. So time is really of the essence now.”
Draft crypto legislation within months
Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ office told Cointelegraph that exposure draft legislation would be released sometime this year for consultation, and any legislated reforms would be “phased in over time to minimize disruptions to existing businesses.”
Although the Treasury has draft legislation on “regulating digital asset platforms” and “payments system modernization” scheduled for release by the end of June, Lam isn’t confident. “I don’t know whether this quarter specifically is still sort of the timeline,” she said.
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While the ALP has been attacked by some over not taking any action in its first term in government, that may actually have resulted in a better outcome than legislation that took its cues from the approach of Joe Biden’s administration, which took a hard line on banks dealing with cryptocurrency and viewed most coins as securities.
Industry figures report a noticeable evolution in the government’s approach to crypto between when proposals were first put out for consultation at the end of 2023 and when the Treasury released its much more positive “Statement on Developing an innovative Australian digital asset industry” in March this year.
The statement sets out key priorities, such as using the existing Australian Financial Services License (AFSL) regime to underpin the regulation of Digital Asset Platforms and payment stablecoins. It’s focused on the safe custody of client assets by centralized providers and sidesteps issues around decentralized finance platforms.
Lam welcomed the use of the AFSL regime. “Obviously, we don’t need to reinvent the wheel,” she said. “It’s something that people know and understand. It’s a pretty sensible move, and it’s also going to be much easier for regulators.”
Tokenization and sandbox
The government will also review the Enhanced Regulatory Sandbox, which aims to provide space for innovative digital asset startups to grow free of red tape. The statement also highlights opportunities with tokenization.
Lam said the change in emphasis showed the government has been listening to the industry.
“It reflects the industry feedback that they would have received in 2023 as a result of the consultation, as well as the changing landscape because obviously it’s been evolving pretty quickly internationally,” Lam said.
“They do have the benefit now of looking at what has worked and hasn’t worked in other jurisdictions, and really building on those lessons.”
Dea Markovy, policy director at Fireblocks, told Cointelegraph that “a lot of the groundwork and research is done” and it was looking broadly positive.
“Of course, a lot of details are still to come around Australia’s Digital Asset Platforms (DAPs) regime. What is significant here is the willingness of the Government to cut through the complexity and uncertainty on crypto intermediaries licensing.”
The securities regulator ASIC released its own crypto regulations proposals (INFO 225) in December, and feedback from those consultations will help inform the government’s new legislation.
“In essence, it details how different token issuances and crypto intermediation will fit into Australia’s existing securities legislation, providing for a transition period,” explained Markovy.
The draft guidance suggests NFTs, in-game assets and memecoins are not financial products — the local equivalent of a “security” — while a yield-bearing stablecoin or a gold-backed token probably are.
The Treasury statement also highlighted issues with debanking. Lam said that simply regulating the industry would go a long way toward solving the issue.
“What we really want from governments and regulators is that clean licensing framework, because that goes a long way to mitigating the risk and giving the banks the comfort that they need,” she said. “And then, there’s probably going to need to be some additional guidance given to banks.”
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Politics
Wes Streeting denies Labour has made ‘mistakes’ with ‘unpopular’ policies despite poor local election results
Health Secretary Wes Streeting has defended “unpopular” policies such as the cut to the winter fuel allowance despite Labour’s poor performance at the local elections.
Mr Streeting denied the government had made any mistakes when asked whether the policy was partly to blame for the party losing 189 council seats less than a year since the General Election.
Since coming into government last July, Labour has enacted a number of policies that were not in its manifesto.
These include means-testing winter fuel payments for pensioners, increasing employers’ national insurance contributions and slashing £5bn from the welfare bill.
Asked what mistakes his government had made so far that had led to its drubbing at the ballot box, Mr Streeting told Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips: “Well, we will make plenty of mistakes.”
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Pressed again on whether he believed “mistakes” had been made, the health secretary replied: “No. When we made those choices, we knew they would be unpopular. And we knew that they would be opposed.
“The reason we made those choices is because we genuinely believe they’re the right choices to get the country out of the massive hole it was left in. And right across the board. Whether it’s the NHS, whether it’s schools, whether it’s prisons, whether it’s our defence and security, whether it’s crime and policing, there were enormous challenges facing this country when we came in.
“And we’ve had to make big and sometimes unpopular decisions so that we can face those challenges and deal with them. People might thank us if we just kind of go for the easy but we want to make the right choices.”
Some Labour MPs have urged the government to change direction, with one telling Sky News the cut to winter fuel was a “catastrophic error” that must be “remedied” if the party is to see any improvement in public opinion.
Others have warned that in courting Reform voters, the party risks fracturing its coalition of voters on the left who may be tempted by the Liberal Democrats and Green Party.
However, in the aftermath of the local elections, Sir Keir Starmer suggested the poor results meant he needed to go “further and faster” in delivering his existing agenda.
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Inside Reform’s election success
The real victor to emerge from Thursday’s local elections was Reform UK, which won control of 10 councils and picked up 677 council seats largely at the expense of the Conservatives in the south.
However, Reform also won the Runcorn by-election from Labour by just six votes, as well as control of Doncaster Council from Labour – the only local authority it had control of in this set of elections – in a significant win for Nigel Farage and his party.
The Reform UK leader declared that two-party politics was now “finished” and that his party was now the official “opposition” to Labour.
Asked whether the results meant that Labour would now treat Reform as “your most serious opposition”, Mr Streeting said: ” I certainly do treat them as a serious opposition force.”
“As I say, I don’t know whether it will be Reform or the Conservatives that emerge as the main threat,” he added.
“I don’t have a horse in that race, but like alien versus predator, I don’t really want either one to win.”
Read more:
Reform’s mission to ‘remoralise’ young people
Reform has put the two traditional parties on notice
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Reform UK are ‘fighting force’
Tory Party chairman Nigel Huddleston said Reform UK was not just a protest party and that Mr Farage was “a force in British politics”.
He told Trevor Phillips: “But the one thing about Nigel Farage is, and we’re seeing this again and again and again, he is a populist.
“He is increasingly saying everything that anybody wants to hear. He’s trying to be all things to all men.”
“We are establishing ourselves as a credible alternative government based on sound conservative principles and values and our values and our principles, and therefore our policies, will define the future of our party,” he added.
Kemi Badenoch has admitted it is “feasible” that Nigel Farage could become the next prime minister.
The Tory leader told the BBC’s Sunday With Laura Kuenssberg programme Mr Farage’s party was “expressing the feeling of frustration that a lot of people around the country are feeling” – but added it was her job to “come up with answers and solutions”.
Asked if it was feasible that Mr Farage could be the next prime minister, she cited how Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese had won re-election this weekend.
“As I said, anything is feasible,” she said. “Anthony Albanese: people were writing him off. He has just won a landslide, but my job is to make sure that he [Farage] does not become prime minister because he does not have the answers to the problems the country is facing.”
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Could Nigel Farage be prime minister?
Asked what Mr Farage was doing right, Ms Badenoch said: “He is expressing the feeling of frustration that a lot of people around the country are feeling.
“But he also doesn’t have a record in government like the two main parties do. Now he’s going to be running some councils. We’ll see how that goes.”
Mr Farage was the undoubted winner of Thursday’s local elections, in which 23 councils were up for grabs.
His party picked up 677 council seats and took control of 10 councils.
By contrast, the Conservatives lost 677 council seats as well as control of 18 councils in what was their worst local elections performance on record.
Mr Farage said the outcome spelt the end of two-party politics and that his party was now the official “opposition” to Labour – with the Tories having been rendered a “waste of space”.
Read more:
Reform has put the two traditional parties on notice
‘I get it’: Starmer responds after losing Runcorn by-election
Ms Badenoch said she believed the vote for Mr Farage on Thursday was partly down to “protest” but added: “That doesn’t mean we sit back. We are going to come out fighting.
“We are going to come out with the policies that people want to see, but what we are not going to do is rush out and tell the public things that are not true just so we can win votes.
“This is not about winning elections; this is about fixing our country. Yes, of course, you need to win elections to do that, but you also need a credible plan.”
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‘Farage is a force in British politics’
Conservative co-chairman Nigel Huddleston sought to play down the threat from Reform UK, telling Sky News: “When they’re in a position of delivering things, that’s when the shine comes off.”
He told Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips: “The one thing about Nigel Farage is, and we’re seeing this again and again and again, he is a populist.
“He is increasingly saying everything that anybody wants to hear. He’s trying to be all things to all men.”
“We are establishing ourselves as a credible alternative government based on sound conservative principles and values and our values and our principles, and therefore our policies, will define the future of our party,” he added.
Asked whether the results meant that Labour would now treat Reform as “your most serious opposition”, Health Secretary Wes Streeting told Trevor Phillips: ” I certainly do treat them as a serious opposition force.”
“As I say, I don’t know whether it will be Reform or the Conservatives that emerge as the main threat,” he added.
“I don’t have a horse in that race, but like alien versus predator, I don’t really want either one to win.”
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