Five things leaders will fight over in tonight’s debate – and what the numbers really tell us
The Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer will be interrogated by Sky’s political editor Beth Rigby and members of the public tonight.
During The Battle For Number 10, they will talk and be questioned at length about their ambitions, so viewers can understand in detail what their plans are.
Mr Sunak is somewhat on the back foot as he has to defend his party’s 14 years in government, while Labour is yet to publish its manifesto, making it harder to get to the bottom of some of its plans.
But here Sky News picks apart some of the claims – and counter claims – each is likely to make.
Which leader will help with cost of living?
Cost of living and taxes are sure to feature – they consistently rank among voters’ top priorities.
Labour likes to claim families have become £5,883 worse off in total over the last five years.
But fact-checking organisation Full Fact pointed out the figure doesn’t take into account a broad enough basket of goods, or changes in wages or benefits over the same time.
Factoring these in, the decrease in real disposable income is more like £166, the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has found.
Meanwhile the Tories claim Labour would leave families £2,000 out of pocket. But the calculations behind it are based on assumptions, as Labour has not yet published it manifesto, and the Tories assume Labour’s plans would be funded by taxes rather than possible borrowing.
Mr Sunak defends his record on the basis of the COVID furlough scheme – which he oversaw as chancellor – and the fact inflation has finally fallen to 2.3%, down from a 42-year record high of 11.1% in October 2022.
But external factors worked in the PM’s favour.
The worst price shocks from the war in Ukraine (namely on fuel and food) eased regardless of government policies.
But falling inflation does not mean falling prices, and any amount of inflation still means prices are rising on top of already higher costs.
Wage growth has now overtaken inflation – but there’s still a gap between how much prices have increased vs wages in the long run, according to ONS data.
This, combined with stubbornly high interest rates which increase the cost of mortgage rates and other loans, explains why people are still feeling the pinch.
Can anyone ‘fix’ the NHS?
Are waiting times going up or down? This is a question on which the leaders are likely to disagree.
The number of outstanding appointments for NHS England peaked at 7.8 million last August – and has since inched down to 7.5 million.
But as other parties love to point out, the waiting list is still 300,000 appointments higher than the 7.2 million in January 2023, when Mr Sunak originally pledged to cut it.
Labour say it would get waiting times back down to a maximum of four months – as per the NHS target – by the end of their first term.
They’d do this by adding “40,000 extra appointments and operations every week”, including more on evenings and weekends, and buying more equipment.
Sky News analysis has shown that these measures alone may do little to bridge the gap, however.
It takes five additional NHS appointments to remove one treatment pathway from the waiting list, according thinktank The Heath Foundation.
With this conversion rate, Labour’s 40,000 additional appointments equates to 8,000 removed from the waiting list, shown in the bar in orange in the chart above – still falling far short of tackling demand.
How would they approach migration?
Both leaders are keen to position themselves as tough on migration, saying that the record levels of net migration since Brexit in 2016 – reaching 685,000 last year – are too high.
Mr Sunak claims his plans, which include the controversial Rwanda deportation policy and an unspecified cap on net migration numbers, are the answer.
But, as Sky News analysis has already shown, caps have failed in the past.
Former prime ministers David Cameron and Theresa May both vowed to cap net migration in the “tens of thousands”. Both failed.
Meanwhile, the Rwanda policy addresses only a tiny fraction of overall numbers, despite its hefty price tag.
It is already set to cost £370m before any removals take place, according to government spending watchdog the National Audit Office (NAO), and could reach an estimated £661m.
It is designed to deter small boats crossings, but these make up only a fraction of asylum claims, and asylum seekers accounted for only 81,000 migrants last year, compared with 432,000 workers and 379,000 students.
Labour have confirmed they will scrap the scheme “straight away”, while the Conservatives have a poor track record of implementing the scheme, so it remains to be seen what the final bill will be.
Nearly two thirds (64%) of 229,000 workers visas granted in 2023 were for healthcare roles like nurses and care workers.
The Tories say their Albania deal shows that deterrence works, with numbers down 90%.
Labour has pledged to “reform resettlement routes to stop people being exploited by gangs”.
Are they really that different on climate and net zero?
Climate and environment comes in fifth in the list of voters’ concerns, according to one YouGov poll.
Yet we have heard fairly little about it recently – the Tories in the last year wanting to distance themselves from it.
A key dividing line is whether to pump more oil and gas from the North Sea.
Mr Sunak wants to “max out” what’s left. Labour says it would stop issuing licences for new projects.
But even though it opposes them, if elected Labour would not actually revoke those handed out by the Tories – which environmentalists have criticised.
The Conservative manifesto says more extraction would “provide energy to homes and businesses across the country”.
But it’s somewhat of a storm in a teacup, because there isn’t much oil or gas left in the North Sea anyway.
The red and blue lines in the chart above show how much – or little – extra the UK might get from new licences – so the decision is more symbolic.
The Tories say they will back renewables, but haven’t really lifted an effective ban on onshore wind farms as promised. Labour wants to double onshore wind power to 35GW by 2030.
Labour’s plans to plug the wells in the North Sea are already putting off some oil majors from turning on the taps at existing projects – and could kill off thousands of jobs, the industry lobby group Offshore Energies UK says.
In reality the parties are more aligned than some of their members would have us believe.
Both back some form of windfall tax until 2029, want to decarbonise most or all electricity by 2030, plan to drive up EVs and want to ramp up solar and offshore wind.
How bad was Sunak’s D-Day gaffe?
It seems no one in Sunak’s team thought an early departure from D-Day commemorations in Normandy would matter.
But oh how it did, drawing criticism from his own party, Labour, and the general public alike.
The polls have not been kind either.
A snap YouGov survey showed two thirds (65%) of those surveyed found the behaviour to be completely or somewhat unacceptable. This rose to three quarters (75%) among the 65+ age group.
This was a gift to Labour, and something Starmer will likely want to capitalise on during tonight’s debate.
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Liverpool trophy parade: Man arrested on suspicion of attempted murder and drug offences, police say
A suspect detained after a car struck pedestrians at a Liverpool FC trophy parade was arrested on suspicion of attempted murder, dangerous driving and driving while unfit through drugs, Merseyside Police have said.
The 53-year-old is described as white British and from the West Derby area of Liverpool.
Police say 11 people are still being treated in hospital and are recovering well. A total of 65 people were injured, they said.
Liverpool parade updates: Follow the latest developments
At a press briefing this afternoon, assistant chief constable Jenny Sims said the car followed an ambulance after a road block on Water Street was lifted so paramedics could help a man who had a suspected heart attack.
The car entered the road from Rumford Street, Merseyside Police said.
Detectives have said the incident is not being treated as terror-related, and no further suspects are being sought.
“There was no intelligence to suggest an incident of this nature would take place,” Ms Sims said.
She also defended the policing operation during the parade, saying the force planned for “all contingencies”.
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‘From jubilation to sirens’
Her comment came after the city’s metro mayor Steve Rotheram said questions about how the car was able to enter the road were “legitimate”.
The arrested man remains in custody and is being interviewed by officers, police said.
Pic: PA
Forensic officers at the scene today. Pic: PA
Merseyside Police is receiving help from neighbouring forces “due to the number of victims”, detective chief superintendent Karen Jaundrill added.
She continued: “Extensive CCTV inquiries are being carried out across the city to establish the movements of the car, a Ford Galaxy, before the incident took place.
“We have already had an incredible response from many of those who were there last night.”
More from Sky News:
Why police released ‘unprecedented’ arrest details
Eyewitnesses describe car driving into crowd
Detective chief superintendent Karen Jaundrill and assistant chief constable Jenny Sims speaking at police headquarters. Pic: PA
Couple ‘traumatised’ after being hit
A couple hit by the car told Sky News they have been left “traumatised”.
Jack Trotter and his girlfriend Abbie Gallagher had just met some other Liverpool fans and were taking videos, when the Ford Galaxy quickly approached.
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Victims recall being hit by car
Miss Gallagher told Sky told our communities correspondent Lisa Holland she was separated from her boyfriend as the car struck them both.
“I look around and there’s people in the air,” she said. “I just freaked out. I was just trying to find Jack.
“Luckily enough, he heard me screaming. He came up and said, ‘I’m here’. We didn’t know what to say, we were just crying.”
Royals ‘saddened’ by events
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Princess Anne visits Liverpool after parade crash
Messages of support have been sent to the people of Liverpool since the incident, with the Prince and Princess of Wales saying they were “deeply saddened” by the events.
“What should have been a joyful celebration ended with tragedy,” they added.
Meanwhile, the King, who is currently taking part in a tour of Canada, said: “I know that the strength of community spirit for which your city is renowned will be a comfort and support to those in need.”
The King and other members of the Royal Family have said they are “deeply saddened” after a number of people were struck by a car during Liverpool FC’s title parade.
The monarch said he and the Queen were “deeply shocked and saddened” by Monday’s incident in the city.
The head of state, who is currently on a two-day visit in Canada with his wife, said: “It is truly devastating to see that what should have been a joyous celebration for so many could end in such distressing circumstances.
“At this heartbreaking time for the people of Liverpool, I know that the strength of community spirit for which your city is renowned will be a comfort and support to those in need.”
Liverpool parade latest: ‘All you heard was screaming,’ witness says
Police and other emergency personnel at the scene of the incident in Liverpool. Pic: AP
The Prince and Princess of Wales have also issued a statement, saying they were “deeply saddened” by what happened in Liverpool.
William, who is patron of the Football Association, and his wife Kate said in a message shared by Kensington Palace on social media: “What should have been a joyful celebration ended with tragedy.
“Our thoughts are with those who were injured and to the first responders and emergency services on the ground.”
Meanwhile, the Princess Royal visited the Royal Liverpool University Hospital on Tuesday, where she met medical staff who treated some of the 47 people injured when a vehicle hit fans attending the parade.
The Princess Royal thanked hospital staff. Pic: PA
Divisional medical director for surgery at Aintree University Hospital, Marc Lucky, told Princess Anne that medics were “very, very fortunate” that there were not more major injuries.
Consultant Jay Rathore added: “Most of the injuries were limb injuries. No life-threatening, we were able to manage them.”
The princess was already due to be in Liverpool on Tuesday to visit the MS Queen Anne after it arrived on Monday for Cunard’s 185th anniversary celebrations.
Read more about Liverpool incident:
What we know so far after dozens injured
Eyewitnesses describe shock and sadness
The King and Queen are currently on a trip to Canada. Pic: PA
She expanded her itinerary to also meet nurses, consultants, and paramedics, as well as representatives from Merseyside Fire and Rescue Service and the football club, in light of Monday night’s incident.
“We really appreciate you still coming, because it will mean a lot to the people of the city,” Liverpool City Council leader Liam Robinson said as he thanked the princess for her visit.
A Buckingham Palace spokesman said: “The princess would like to share her heartfelt condolences and support for the families and communities affected.
“Her Royal Highness also wishes to acknowledge the courage of the emergency services, some of whom she met today, and all those providing care and comfort during this difficult time.”
King Charles says Canada will remain “strong and free” – in a speech viewed by many Canadians as a show of support for the country’s sovereignty following annexation threats by Donald Trump.
It comes after Mr Trump repeatedly suggested that Canada should become America’s 51st state.
Prime Minister Mark Carney later invited Charles, who is the head of state in Canada, to the state opening of parliament.
On Tuesday, Charles said in a speech, written by Mr Carney’s government to open Canada’s parliament, that the country would remain “strong and free”, quoting the national anthem, but did not directly refer to Mr Trump’s annexation threats.
“We must face reality: since the Second World War, our world has never been more dangerous and unstable. Canada is facing challenges that, in our lifetimes, are unprecedented,” the King told politicians in the Senate Building in Ottawa in French.
“Many Canadians are feeling anxious and worried about the drastically changing world around them,” he added.
Mark Carney applauded the King. Pic: PA
King Charles spoke with former Canadian PM Justin Trudeau. Pic: PA
In the speech, he highlighted his admiration for “Canada’s unique identity, which is recognised across the world for bravery and sacrifice in defence of national values”.
He set out the government’s legislative agenda on the second day of his Canada visit, an honour usually reserved for the governor general.
King Charles is only the second monarch, after his mother Queen Elizabeth II, to do so. The late queen delivered the speech at the state opening of the Canadian parliament in 1957, her first visit to the country as head of state, and again in 1977.
King Charles and Queen Camilla were riding in a horse-drawn landau. Pic: Reuters
King Charles III and Queen Camilla are pictured ahead of the opening of parliament. Pic: PA
Charles and Camilla laid a wreath at the national war memorial in Ottawa. Pic: PA
He said that it has been nearly 70 years since his mother first opened the Canadian parliament, and at the time, World War II remained a painful memory while the Cold War was intensifying simultaneously.
“Freedom and democracy were under threat,” the King said.
“Today, Canada faces another critical moment. Democracy, pluralism, the rule of law, self-determination, and freedom are values which Canadians hold dear, and ones which the government is determined to protect.”
He added that since Queen Elizabeth II’s first Canadian parliament opening, the country “has dramatically changed: repatriating its constitution, achieving full independence, and witnessing immense growth”.
Addressing the protection of Canada’s sovereignty, Charles read out a promise by the Canadian government that it would rebuild, rearm and reinvest in its armed forces.
“It will invest to strengthen its presence in the north, as this region, which is an integral part of the Canadian nation, faces new threats,” he read.
King Charles and Queen Camilla were led by procession to open the first session of parliament in Canada
Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) officers on horseback rode towards the senate building. Pic: Reuters
King Charles and Queen Camilla visited the Senate. Pic: Reuters
The speech, which was awarded a standing ovation by attendees, was largely written by officials working for Mr Carney’s government, with Charles adding his own comments about his love for Canada.
The King opening Canada’s parliament is a “clear message of sovereignty” and “not coincidental”, Mr Carney previously said.
Read more from Sky News:
Carney: Canadians facing ‘biggest crisis’ of their life
Canada will ‘never be part of US’, country’s PM says
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King’s Canada visit: Why is it important?
King Charles and Mark Carney during the event
He also revealed that Canadians “weren’t impressed” by the decision of the UK government to offer Mr Trump an unprecedented second state visit to the UK.
Mr Carney said the invitation Sir Keir Starmer handed to the US president earlier this year “cut across clear messages” that the Canadian government was trying to send to the White House in response to their threats against Canada’s sovereignty, including Mr Trump’s idea for it to be America’s 51st state.
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