The UK economy flatlined in April, according to official figures that have been seized on by the government’s critics as evidence the Conservatives’ heralded plan is not working.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said there was zero growth in April compared to the 0.4% figure recorded during March.
A Reuters news agency poll of economists had predicted the 0% performance given earlier evidence that wet weather had knocked retail sales and construction output particularly hard.
The GDP (gross domestic product) report from the ONS – the last to be released ahead of the election – showed UK overall rainfall at 155% of the long-term average in April.
Construction output was found to have declined by 1.4% as a result, the number crunchers said, also aided by poor demand for construction products in the manufacturing sector.
Production was down by 0.9% while the services sector – accounting for almost 80% of UK total output – grew by just 0.2%.
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Despite the emphasis on the hit from rain, the numbers still represent a setback for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s key election argument that the economy is improving after successive hits from the COVID pandemic followed by the cost of living crisis.
The UK exited a short-lived recession at the end of 2023 when growth of 0.6% was registered in the first quarter of the current year.
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While economists continue to see growth in the three months to June, expectations are for growth of around 0.3% – half the rate achieved between January and March.
Ahead of polling day on 4 July, there will be a final set of inflation figures followed, the next day, by a Bank of England interest rate decision.
Financial markets and economists see little chance of a rate cut on 20 June, largely because wages are growing at a pace that risks stoking price growth further after significant progress in the battle against inflation.
The consumer prices index measure currently stands at 2.3% and is expected to ease further when the figures for May are released.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said: “There is more to do, but the economy is turning a corner and inflation is back down to normal.”
He added that the Conservatives would “keep the economy growing with our clear plan to cut taxes on work, homes and pensions”.
But shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said of the ONS data: “Rishi Sunak claims we have turned a corner, but the economy has stalled and there is no growth.
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UK economy flatlines in April
“These figures expose the damage done after 14 years of Conservative chaos.
“We are now in the third week of this general election campaign and in that time the Labour Party has set out its plan to grow the economy by bringing back stability, unlocking private sector investment and reforming our planning system.
“All the Conservatives are offering is more of the same, with a desperate wish list of unfunded spending promises that will mean £4,800 more on people’s mortgages. Rishi Sunak’s plan is a recipe for five more years of Tory chaos.”
Liberal Democrat Treasury spokeswoman Sarah Olney said the lack of growth in April showed the Tories had “utterly failed” to deliver on their promises.
“As Rishi Sunak’s time as prime minister peters out, so does the UK’s economic growth,” she said.
“The Conservatives have utterly failed to deliver the growth they repeatedly promised, instead presiding over stagnation and economic misery for hardworking families across the country.
“The Conservatives’ manifesto shows they simply lack the ambition and vision to get the economy moving again.
“It’s clear for voters across the country that the only way to make it happen is to vote them out of office on July 4.”
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Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said of the outlook: “Forward-looking indicators point to renewed momentum in activity over the coming months, supported by an improvement in consumer sentiment as pay growth remains strong.
“The early summer general election could help resolve political uncertainties which could provide a boost for business investment.
“Nonetheless, whichever party wins the election will have to contend with a number of supply-side challenges which will constrain the UK’s long-term growth potential.
“We expect economic activity to remain sluggish in historical terms this year with growth at just 0.5%.”
A committee of MPs has called for the government to be fined if it fails to provide redress quickly enough to victims of the Horizon software scandal, as its report said the Post Office has spent at least £136m on legal fees.
New legally enforceable time limits for each stage of claim processing should be introduced, a report from the Business and Trade Committee (BTC) has said.
If a claim by a victim of the Post Office Horizon scandal does not move in line with the time limits they should receive the financial penalties paid by the government.
Many more incurred large debts, lost homes, experienced relationship breakdown, became unwell in an effort to repay the imagined shortfalls and some took their own lives.
Four schemes have been launched as the state and the Post Office attempt to redress the wrongs.
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Making redress less punishing
But the process of seeking compensation is “akin to a second trial for victims”, the committee chair Liam Byrne said.
It is “imperative” applicants receive upfront legal advice paid for by scheme operators rather than applicants, the committee’s report said, as evidence given by claimants’ solicitors said when they get legal advice, their financial redress offers double.
Applications place an “excessive burden” on claimants to “grapple complex legal concepts” on the amount of redress they’re owed and requests for information about the losses Horizon caused, despite no longer having access to Horizon data.
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Sir Alan Bates threatens legal action
There have been delays in processing requests for disclosures from the Post Office, the report found.
It comes as the Post Office spent £136m on legal costs, meaning government legal representatives are “walking away with millions”, according to the committee.
Vast majority of redress not paid
Despite this, the BTC said the “vast majority” of redress has not been paid.
As many as 14% of those who applied to the Horizon Shortfall Scheme (HSS) to compensate for losses incurred via the faulty computer programme have still not settled their claims despite applying before the original 2020 deadline.
It cost £67m to administer the Horizon Shortfall Scheme, a bill equal to 27% of redress paid, amounting to £26,600 per claim.
Repeating calls
The topic of who operates the schemes has been revisited by the committee as it reiterated its call for the Post Office to have no involvement and for independent adjudicators to be appointed instead.
The government removed the Post Office from schemes involving convictions but the organisation still administers the HSS.
It also repeated its rebuffed demand for the appointment of an independent adjudicator for each scheme. The committee wants these adjudicators to manage cases and ensure claims move through the process swiftly.
In response, a spokesperson for the Labour-run Department for Business and Trade said: “Since entering government, we have worked tirelessly to speed up the process of providing the victims of the Horizon scandal with full and fair redress including by launching the Horizon Convictions Redress Scheme earlier this year.
“We are settling claims at a faster rate than ever before with the amount of redress paid doubling since July, with almost £500m being paid to over 3,300 claimants as of the end of November.”
A massive election – well, two massive elections on either side of the Atlantic, and more elsewhere around the planet – followed by changes of government and plenty of economic milestones along the way. So let’s remind ourselves of some of the big moments of the year, in chart form.
We begin with the big economic picture. Growth. This time last year, the UK was (unbeknownst to us at the time) actually in recession. The news was only confirmed in the spring of this year, but for two successive quarters in the second half of last year, economic growth fell.
What’s equally intriguing is what happened next: a rapid bounce-back as gross domestic product increased by more than expected in the first two quarters of the year. Since then, it has tailed off markedly, causing some consternation in the Treasury.
Indeed, an initial estimate of 0.1 per cent growth in the third quarter of 2024 was revised down to zero growth – stagnation.
Still, interest rates are now finally on the way down. They were cut in August for the first time following the cost of living crisis, and are expected to fall further next year. However, the scale of those expected falls is considerably smaller now than before the Budget. Why? Because the government is planning to borrow and spend considerably more next year.
And while Labour insists this will not be visible on your pay check – and hence isn’t breaking their pre-election pledge – we will, as a nation, be paying considerably more in taxes as a result. Indeed, the tax burden, the total amount of tax incurred by the population as a percentage of GDP, is now heading up to the highest level on record. This is, it’s worth saying, a stark contrast with the costed measures Labour put in their manifesto.
That brings us to the election itself – an election in which Labour rode to an extraordinary landslide, winning more than 400 seats for the first time since the glory days of Tony Blair. It represented an immense comeback for the party, following such a drubbing in 2019. However, there are some important provisos to note.
Chief among them is the fact that the party won the smallest share of the vote of any winning party in the modern era. This was not a landslide victory in terms of overall popular support.
Among the issues that has resounded this year, both before the election and after, was migration. This time last year the data suggested that net migration into the UK had peaked at just over 750,000.
But then, last month, new data brought with it a shocking revision. In fact, the Home Office had both undercounted the number of people coming into the country and overcounted the number leaving. The upshot was a new figure: in fact 906,000 more people had entered than departed in the year to last summer. Not just a new record – a totally gobsmacking figure.
The vast, vast majority of that migration was not the “small boats” so much has been made of but legal migration, more or less equally divided between work and study. It was to some extent the consequence of the post-COVID bounceback and, even more so, changes in government policy as post-Brexit migration rules came into force.
Another issue which came to light throughout the year was something else: the leakiness of Britain’s sanctions regime with Russia. While government ministers like to boast about how this is the toughest regime on Russia in history, our analysis found that sanctioned British goods are routinely being shipped into Russia via its neighbours in the Caucasus and Central Asia.
In a series of investigations, we tracked how this carousel works for the trade of cars, which get sent to countries like Azerbaijan before being shuffled around the Caucasus and entering Russia via Georgia and other routes. But that same carousel is likely being used for equipment like drone parts and radar equipment. We know it’s being sent to Russian neighbours. We know it’s ending up on the battlefield. The data tells a stark story about the reality of the sanctions regime – and helps illustrate how Russia is continuing to keep its forces armed and equipped with components from the West.
The operator of nearly 150 Pizza Hut restaurants in the UK is in advanced talks with potential buyers as it races to wrap up a deal to secure its future.
Sky News has learnt that Heart With Smart (HWS), the US-owned brand’s biggest UK franchisee, is aiming to select a preferred bidder in January after weeks of talks with suitors.
Sources close to the process said a range of trade and financial buyers had expressed interest in acquiring a large stake in the dine-in chain.
In November, Sky News revealed that HWS had begun approaching potential bidders as it sought to mitigate the impact of tax hikes announced in the previous month’s Budget.
HWS, which operates roughly 140 Pizza Hut restaurants, is working with Interpath Advisory on the process.
The company, which was previously called Pizza Hut Restaurants, employs about 3,000 people, making it one of the most significant operators in Britain’s casual dining industry.
It is owned by a combination of Pricoa and the company’s management, led by chief executive Jens Hofma.
They led a management buyout reportedly worth £100m in 2018, with the business having previously been owned by Rutland Partners, a private equity firm.
HWS licenses the Pizza Hut name from Yum! Brands, the American food giant which also owns KFC.
Insiders told Sky News last month that the increases to the national living wage and employers’ national insurance contributions (NICs) unveiled in the budget by Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, would add approximately £4m to HWS’s annual costs – equivalent to more than half of last year’s earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation.
The structure of a takeover or capital injection was unclear on Monday, although the last eight weeks have seen a string of bleak warnings from the hospitality industry.
Even before the budget, restaurant operators were feeling significant pressure, with TGI Fridays collapsing into administration before being sold to a consortium of Breal Capital and Calveton.
Sky News also revealed during the autumn that Pizza Express had hired investment bankers to advise on a debt refinancing.
HWS operates all of Pizza Hut’s dine-in restaurants in Britain, but has no involvement with its large number of delivery outlets, which are run by individual franchisees.
Accounts filed at Companies House for HWS4 for the period from 5 December 2022 to 3 December 2023 show that it completed a restructuring of its debt under which its lenders agreed to suspend repayments of some of its borrowings until November next year.
The terms of the same facilities were also extended to September 2027, while it also signed a new 10-year Pizza Hut franchise agreement with Yum Brands which expires in 2032.
“Whilst market conditions have improved noticeably since 2022, consumers remain challenged by higher-than-average levels of inflation, high mortgage costs and slow growth in the economy,” the accounts said.
It added: “The costs of business remain challenging.”
Pizza Hut opened its first UK restaurant in the early 1970s and expanded rapidly over the following 15 years.
In 2020, the company announced that it was closing dozens of restaurants, with the loss of hundreds of jobs, through a company voluntary arrangement (CVA).
At that time, it operated more than 240 sites across the UK.