Connect with us

Published

on

The UK economy flatlined in April, according to official figures that have been seized on by the government’s critics as evidence the Conservatives’ heralded plan is not working.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said there was zero growth in April compared to the 0.4% figure recorded during March.

A Reuters news agency poll of economists had predicted the 0% performance given earlier evidence that wet weather had knocked retail sales and construction output particularly hard.

Read more
Outlook for economy is stronger, which makes timing of election even more peculiar
The most expensive place to buy a seaside home in the UK

The GDP (gross domestic product) report from the ONS – the last to be released ahead of the election – showed UK overall rainfall at 155% of the long-term average in April.

Construction output was found to have declined by 1.4% as a result, the number crunchers said, also aided by poor demand for construction products in the manufacturing sector.

Production was down by 0.9% while the services sector – accounting for almost 80% of UK total output – grew by just 0.2%.

More from Business

Despite the emphasis on the hit from rain, the numbers still represent a setback for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s key election argument that the economy is improving after successive hits from the COVID pandemic followed by the cost of living crisis.

Battle for no 10 promo
Image:
Battle for no 10 promo


The UK exited a short-lived recession at the end of 2023 when growth of 0.6% was registered in the first quarter of the current year.

While economists continue to see growth in the three months to June, expectations are for growth of around 0.3% – half the rate achieved between January and March.

Ahead of polling day on 4 July, there will be a final set of inflation figures followed, the next day, by a Bank of England interest rate decision.

Financial markets and economists see little chance of a rate cut on 20 June, largely because wages are growing at a pace that risks stoking price growth further after significant progress in the battle against inflation.

The consumer prices index measure currently stands at 2.3% and is expected to ease further when the figures for May are released.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said: “There is more to do, but the economy is turning a corner and inflation is back down to normal.”

He added that the Conservatives would “keep the economy growing with our clear plan to cut taxes on work, homes and pensions”.

But shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said of the ONS data: “Rishi Sunak claims we have turned a corner, but the economy has stalled and there is no growth.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

UK economy flatlines in April

“These figures expose the damage done after 14 years of Conservative chaos.

“We are now in the third week of this general election campaign and in that time the Labour Party has set out its plan to grow the economy by bringing back stability, unlocking private sector investment and reforming our planning system.

“All the Conservatives are offering is more of the same, with a desperate wish list of unfunded spending promises that will mean £4,800 more on people’s mortgages. Rishi Sunak’s plan is a recipe for five more years of Tory chaos.”

Liberal Democrat Treasury spokeswoman Sarah Olney said the lack of growth in April showed the Tories had “utterly failed” to deliver on their promises.

“As Rishi Sunak’s time as prime minister peters out, so does the UK’s economic growth,” she said.

“The Conservatives have utterly failed to deliver the growth they repeatedly promised, instead presiding over stagnation and economic misery for hardworking families across the country.

“The Conservatives’ manifesto shows they simply lack the ambition and vision to get the economy moving again.

“It’s clear for voters across the country that the only way to make it happen is to vote them out of office on July 4.”

Follow Sky News on WhatsApp
Follow Sky News on WhatsApp

Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News

Tap here

Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said of the outlook: “Forward-looking indicators point to renewed momentum in activity over the coming months, supported by an improvement in consumer sentiment as pay growth remains strong.

“The early summer general election could help resolve political uncertainties which could provide a boost for business investment.

“Nonetheless, whichever party wins the election will have to contend with a number of supply-side challenges which will constrain the UK’s long-term growth potential.

“We expect economic activity to remain sluggish in historical terms this year with growth at just 0.5%.”

Continue Reading

Business

Interest rates: ‘Considerably more doubt’ over future cuts, Bank of England governor warns

Published

on

By

Interest rates: 'Considerably more doubt' over future cuts, Bank of England governor warns

There is “considerably more doubt” over when future interest rate cuts can take place, the governor of the Bank of England has said.

Andrew Bailey told a committee of MPs that the risks around inflation had gone up and he was “more concerned” about weakness in the labour market.

Bank staff projections expect the main consumer prices index measure of inflation to rise to 4% this year – double the 2% target rate – from its current level of 3.8%. Food prices are proving the main driver currently, with part of the increases blamed on government tax rises on employers.

On the prospects for further interest rate reductions this year, Mr Bailey said: “There is now considerably more doubt about when and exactly how quickly we can make those further steps.”

Money latest: Wetherspoons stops accepting some banknotes in England

Interest rates are elevated to help ease the pace of price growth and cut, when able, to help maintain inflation at the 2% target level.

The governor was speaking after the Bank’s split vote last month that resulted in a quarter point reduction for Bank rate to 4%.

More from Money

At that time, the governor said that while he still believed that the future path for borrowing costs was still downwards gradually over time, financial markets had since understood that the outlook for the pace of cuts was more murky.

“That’s the message I wanted to get across”, he told the Treasury select committee.

“Now, I think actually, judging by what’s happened, certainly to market pricing since then, I think that message has been understood.”

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Inflation up: the bad and ‘good’ news

A further quarter point cut to 3.75% is no longer fully priced in for this year, according to LSEG data on market expectations.

He was speaking as financial markets continued to see a widespread sell-off of long-dated bonds, largely over fears of rising government debt levels in many western economies including the US and UK.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Why did UK debt just get more expensive?

The activity has taken the yield – the effective interest rate demanded by investors – in 30-year gilts to a 27-year high this week. Other shorter dated bonds have also risen sharply.

But Mr Bailey urged less of an emphasis on the long-term gilts, as headlines point out that any increase in the cost of servicing government debt is a headache chancellor Rachel Reeves can well do without as she battles to balance the books.

He told the MPs: “It’s important not to … over focus on the 30-year bond rate. Of course, it’s a number that gets quoted a lot, it’s quite a high number. It is actually not a number that is being used for funding at all at the moment.”

Mr Bailey also waded into the continuing row across the Atlantic that sees the independence of the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, threatened by Donald Trump and his quest for interest rate cuts.

He has moved to fire a Fed governor over alleged mortgage fraud and make a new appointment but Lisa Cook, who was appointed to the board by Joe Biden, is fighting his bid to oust her in the courts.

“This is a very serious situation”, Mr Bailey said.

“I am very concerned. The Federal Reserve… has built up a very strong reputation for independence and for its decision making,”, adding that trading central bank independence against other government decisions would be a “very dangerous road to go down”.

Continue Reading

Business

Cost of long term UK government borrowing hits fresh 27-year high

Published

on

By

Cost of long term UK government borrowing hits fresh 27-year high

After hitting the highest level this century on Tuesday, the cost of long term UK government borrowing has now hit a fresh 27-year high.

The interest rate demanded by investors on the state’s long-dated borrowing (30-year bonds) rose to just below 5.75%, surpassing the 5.72% peak reached on Tuesday, pushing it to a high not seen since May 1998.

 

It comes as the government auctioned off these long-term loans on Tuesday and was forced to pay a premium to do so.

Issuing bonds is a routine way states raise money.

Money blog: Sainsbury’s criticised for trialling ‘spying’ technology

As well as meaning the state has to pay more to borrow money, high interest rates on debt can signify reduced investor confidence in the ability of the UK to pay back these loans.

As the trading session continued, the interest rates on long-term government bonds, known as gilt yields, fell back to just above 5.66%, not enough to erase two days of rises.

The benchmark for state borrowing costs, the interest rate on 10-year bonds, also saw rises. The yield rose above 4.8% for the first time since January, before slightly falling back

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Why did UK debt just get more expensive?

The spiked borrowing cost also continued to cause a weakening in the pound.

After an initial fall to a month-long low against the dollar, one pound again buys $1.34.

It means sterling goes less far in dollars than before the latest peak in interest rates on government bonds. On Monday, sterling could buy $1.35.

Sterling dropped to equal €1.14 before easing up to €1.15. Just a few months earlier, a pound could buy €1.19 before Donald Trump’s April country-specific tariff announcements.

So why has this happened?

Government borrowing costs have been rising across the world amid a sell-off in bonds – which prompts investors to look for a higher return to hold them.

High inflation and national debts have increased concern about whether states can pay back the money.

Japan’s long-term borrowing cost hit a record high, while the yield on the US’s benchmark 10-year bond hit the 5% mark for the first time since July.

UK bond yields tend to follow the US.

Read more:
Prospective Thames Water rescuers make big promise

Hundreds of jobs at risk as retailer Bodycare braces for administration

Key to easing UK borrowing costs was the announcement of the date of the budget on Wednesday morning.

UK public finances had been a worry for markets as Chancellor Rachel Reeves struggles to stick to her fiscal rules to bring down the debt and balance the budget.

Disquiet around comparatively low growth in the UK economy also played a role.

Continue Reading

Business

Telegraph buyers take step towards £500m deal with Whitehall filing

Published

on

By

Telegraph buyers take step towards £500m deal with Whitehall filing

The American investors who have agreed to become the new owners of The Daily Telegraph have edged closer to gaining control of the newspaper by formally notifying the government of the deal.

Sky News understands that lawyers acting for RedBird Capital Partners, which will own a majority stake in the publisher if the deal is approved, submitted their detailed proposals to the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) in the last few days.

The filing means that Lisa Nandy, the culture secretary, must decide whether to issue a new Public Interest Intervention Notice (PIIN) which would trigger further investigations into the takeover.

The notification by RedBird Capital’s lawyers should pave the way for the lifting of an interim enforcement order (IEO) imposed by Lucy Frazer, the then Conservative culture secretary, in December 2023, which prevented the acquirers from exerting any control over the Telegraph.

Insiders believe that the removal of the IEO will result in the DCMS issuing a new PIIN, which would prompt investigations by Ofcom and the Competition and Markets Authority into the £500m takeover.

A previous PIIN was issued in January 2024 when RedBird intended to buy the Telegraph titles in conjunction with Abu Dhabi state-controlled investor IMI.

Following a fraught legislative battle, IMI is now restricted to owning a maximum 15% stake in the newspapers – which it intends to acquire as part of the RedBird-led consortium.

Sky News has already revealed that Sir Leonard Blavatnik, owner of the DAZN sports streaming platform, and Daily Mail proprietor Lord Rothermere are preparing to buy minority stakes as part of the RedBird-led transaction.

Read more from Sky News:
Value of pound sinks
UK hit by toxic cocktail of market shifts

RedBird said in May that it was “in discussions with select UK-based minority investors with print media expertise and strong commitment to upholding the editorial values of the Telegraph”.

The Telegraph’s ownership has been in a state of limbo for nearly two-and-a-half years after its parent company was forced into insolvency by Lloyds Banking Group, which ran out of patience with the Barclay family, the newspaper’s long-standing owner.

RedBird IMI, a joint venture between the two firms, paid £600m in 2023 to acquire a call option that was intended to convert into ownership of the Telegraph newspapers and The Spectator magazine.

The Spectator was sold last year for £100m to Sir Paul Marshall, the hedge fund billionaire, who has installed Lord Gove, the former cabinet minister, as its editor.

In July, the House of Lords approved legislation that will allow IMI, which is controlled by Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the vice-president of the United Arab Emirates and ultimate owner of Manchester City Football Club, to hold a minority stake.

Other bidders had tried to gatecrash the Telegraph deal, with the field of rival contenders led by Dovid Efune, the owner of The New York Sun.

His key backer – the hedge fund founder Jeremy Hosking – recently told Sky News their bid was “ready to go” if the RedBird-led transaction fell apart.

Announcing its agreement to acquire the Telegraph titles in May, Gerry Cardinale, founder of RedBird Capital, said it marked the “start of a new era” for two of Britain’s most prominent newspapers.

Mr Cardinale said after the Lords vote: “With legislation now in place, we will move quickly and in the forthcoming days work with DCMS to progress to completion and implement new ownership for The Telegraph.”

Senior Telegraph executives and journalists are said to be frustrated at the pace of the process.

None of the parties involved in the Telegraph ownership situation would comment, while the DCMS declined to comment.

Continue Reading

Trending