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A Tory social media campaign suggests the party fears a Labour landslide in the upcoming general election, as minister Grant Shapps says they are fighting to avoid a Labour “supermajority”.

The Conservatives’ latest advertising campaign appears to target potential Reform voters, warning them that the Tories could be reduced to just 57 seats in the next parliament, even if Reform picked up no seats.

It urges them not to risk handing Labour the keys to Number 10 with a majority that may surpass even the 1997 landslide under Tony Blair.

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The advert is an admission of Labour’s vast lead in the polls, currently 20 percentage points ahead of the Tories, according to the latest exclusive YouGov poll for Sky News.

Earlier on Sky News’ Breakfast with Kay Burley, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps sought to further downplay Reform’s rising popularity.

Asked about the fact Reform is now on 17%, just one point behind the Tories, Mr Shapps said: “As far as I’m aware, not a single person has cast a vote in this country yet, so let’s wait and see”.

He said the “only other option” for whoever gets into Downing Street “is Keir Starmer”.

Rishi Sunak today also warned against giving Labour a “blank cheque”, but has “absolutely not” given up hope of winning the election, he told reporters on the campaign bus.

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‘Important’ to prepare for Sky leaders’ event

The leaders of both major parties are taking part in the Sky News Battle for Number 10 programme tonight.

Live from Grimsby, a key target town in the campaign, the two will face questions from political editor Beth Rigby and the studio audience.

Read more:
Conservatives and Reform ‘tantalisingly close to a crossover’ in the polls
The truth behind claims leaders will make in tonight’s debate

Mr Shapps also said that to ensure proper accountability, “you don’t want to have somebody receive a supermajority”.

He told Times Radio earlier: “In this case, of course, the concern would be that if Keir Starmer were to go into No 10… and that power was in some way unchecked, it would be very bad news for people in this country”.

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Mr Shapps added: “It’s perfectly legitimate to say the country doesn’t function well when you get majorities the size of Blair’s or even bigger, and we would say there are a lot of very good, hardworking MPs who can hold the government of the day to account, and we’d say those are Conservative MPs.”

The defence secretary is one of the high-profile Tories set to lose their seats in the election, along with Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Commons leader Penny Mordaunt, according to Sky’s YouGov poll last week.

Preventing wipeout may be aim of Tories’ social media campaign


Tom Cheshire

Tom Cheshire

Online campaign correspondent

@chesh

From that social media post advertising just 57 Conservative seats – and the talk of a Labour “supermajority” – it may look like the Tories are already admitting defeat and seeking merely to limit its scale.

Not many parties seeking to govern highlight their own potential demise as a reason to vote for them after all.

And that’s the message in their online adverts too.

The most recent adverts on Facebook and Instagram warn voting for a particular party – the text changes between Reform, the Lib Dems and Labour – would be “handing Keir Starmer a massive majority”.

And they’re almost all attack ads: of the newest ads, you have to scroll past more than 40 before you get to the first that speaks about Tory policy, rather than talking about Labour.

Compare that to recent Labour adverts – their message is a lot more positive and members of the shadow cabinet are put front and centre.

The other sign the Conservatives may be anticipating a heavy defeat is the amount of money they’re spending on digital ads.

It’s far less than Labour, according to data from Sky News election partner Who Targets Me. If this were a tight race you’d expect them to be piling in.

But if victory is out of grasp, perhaps they only want to spend enough to prevent wipeout.

Sir Keir insisted Labour was not complacent about victory but urged voters to give him the mandate to deliver change.

He said: “We know that we have to earn every vote.

“Not a single vote has been cast and I know that every day we have to make a positive case for change.”

This morning official figures suggested the economy flatlined in April – an outcome long expected as the very wet weather had dampened retail sales and construction output.

Liberal Democrat Treasury spokeswoman Sarah Olney said: “The Conservatives have utterly failed to deliver the growth they repeatedly promised, instead presiding over stagnation and economic misery for hardworking families across the country.”

But the chancellor said the figures showed the economy “grew by 0.7% in the three months to April”.

“There is more to do, but the economy is turning a corner and inflation is back down to normal,” he said.

The Lib Dems have seen a four-point rise in their polling numbers to 15%, while the Green Party has crept up one point to 8%.

Launching their manifesto today, the Greens are setting out plans to tax “multimillionaires and billionaires” to fund improvements to health, housing, transport and the green economy.

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‘Physical threat’ from Iran on people living in UK has ‘increased significantly’, watchdog says

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'Physical threat' from Iran on people living in UK has 'increased significantly', watchdog says

The threat of physical attacks by Iran on people living in the UK has increased “significantly” since 2022, according to a new report by parliament’s intelligence watchdog.

Iran poses a “wide-ranging, persistent and unpredictable threat” to the UK, according to the Intelligence and Security Committee.

It also said Iran’s intelligence services were “willing and able – often through third party agents – to attempt assassination within the UK, and kidnap from the UK”.

Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
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Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Pic: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/West Asia News Agency/Reuters

The report said there have been 15 murder or kidnap attempts against British citizens or UK-based individuals since the beginning of 2022 and August 2023.

Sky News has approached the Iranian embassy for a comment.

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Millions of Iranians unite in mourning

The report authors add: “Whilst Iran’s activity appears to be less strategic and on a smaller scale than Russia and China, Iran poses a wide-ranging threat to UK national security, which should not be underestimated: it is persistent and crucially – unpredictable.”

The committee also says that while the threat is often focused on dissidents and other opponents to the regime, there is also an increased threat to Jewish and Israeli interests in the UK.

More on Iran

The report warns that while Iran has not developed a nuclear weapon, it has taken steps towards that goal.

It found that Iran had been “broadly compliant” with the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), aimed at limiting its nuclear ambitions.

But since Donald Trump withdrew from that deal in 2018, the report said the nuclear threat had increased and Tehran “had the capability to arm in a relatively short period”.

The UK government is also accused of “fire-fighting” rather than developing a real understanding of Iran.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and military commanders watch as military equipment passes by during the National Army Day parade
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Iran’s president oversees a parade in Tehran in April showing off the country’s military hardware. Pic: West Asia News Agency/Reuters

An Iranian missile is seen during the National Army Day parade ceremony in Tehran
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Missiles are paraded through the capital during the recent National Army Day ceremony. Pic: West Asia News Agency/Reuters

The report says: “The government’s policy on Iran has suffered from a focus on crisis management, driven by concerns over Iran’s nuclear programme, to the exclusion of other issues.

“As one of our expert witnesses told the committee: ‘Strategy is not a word that I think has crossed the lips of policy makers for a while, certainly not in relation to Iran’.”

The committee concluded its evidence-taking in August 2023, the result of two years of work, but the report authors say their conclusions “remain relevant”.

But the report authors questioned whether UK sanctions against individuals would “in practice deliver behavioural change. Or in fact unhelpfully push Iran towards China”.

The committee also said the British government should consider proscribing the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), although some argue it would limit the UK’s ability to talk to and influence Iran.

Read more from Sky News:
Who is Iran’s supreme leader?
Defiant Khamenei makes appearance
Anger in Iran over US and Israeli strikes

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Responding to the report, a UK government spokesperson said: “The government will take action wherever necessary to protect national security, which is a foundation of our plan for change.

“We have already placed Iran on the enhanced tier of the foreign influence registration scheme and introduced further sanctions against individuals and entities linked to Iran, bringing the total number of sanctions to 450.”

British security services say Tehran uses criminal proxies to carry out its work in Britain.

In December, two Romanians were charged after a journalist working for a Persian language media organisation in London was stabbed in the leg. In May, three Iranian men appeared in court charged with assisting Iran’s foreign intelligence service and plotting violence against journalists.

Earlier this year, the UK government said it would require the Iranian state to register everything it does to exert political influence in the UK, because of what it called increasingly aggressive activity.

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‘A constant game of cat and mouse’: Inside the crackdown on illegal moped delivery drivers

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'A constant game of cat and mouse': Inside the crackdown on illegal moped delivery drivers

The first thing you notice when immigration officers stop a possible illegal moped delivery driver is the speed in which the suspect quickly taps on their mobile.

“We’re in their WhatsApp groups – they’ll be telling thousands now that we’re here… so our cover is blown,” the lead immigration officer tells me.

“It’s like a constant game of cat and mouse.”

Twelve Immigration Enforcement officers, part of the Home Office, are joining colleagues from Avon and Somerset Police in a crackdown on road offences and migrants working illegally.

Police chase suspected illegal immigrant working as a delivery drivers

The West of England and Wales has seen the highest number of arrests over the last year for illegal workers outside of London.

“It is a problem… we’re tackling it,” Murad Mohammed, from Immigration Enforcement, says. He covers all the devolved nations.

“This is just one of the operations going on around the country, every day of the week, every month of the year.”

Murad Mohammed from Immigration Enforcement
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Murad Mohammed, from Immigration Enforcement, says his team are attempting to tackle the issue

Just outside the Cabot Circus shopping complex, we stop a young Albanian man who arrived in the UK on the back of a truck.

He’s on an expensive and fast-looking e-bike, with a new-looking Just Eat delivery bag.

He says he just uses it for “groceries” – but the officer isn’t buying it. He’s arrested, but then bailed instantly.

A man inspects the Just Eat food delivery bag of a suspected illegal immigrant working as a delivery driver

We don’t know the specifics of his case, but one officer tells me this suspected offence won’t count against his asylum claim.

Such is the scale of the problem – the backlog, loopholes and the complexity of cases – that trying to keep on top of it feels impossible.

This is one of many raids happening across the UK as part of what the government says is a “blitz” targeting illegal working hotspots.

Angela Eagle, the border security and asylum minister, joins the team for an hour at one of Bristol’s retail parks, scattered with fast food chains and, therefore, delivery bikes.

Angela Eagle, Minister for Border Security and Asylum
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Border security and asylum minister, Angela Eagle, speaks to Sky News

She says arrests for illegal working are up over the last year by 51% from the year before, to more than 7,000.

“If we find you working, you can lose access to the hotel or the support you have [been] given under false pretences,” she said.

“We are cracking down on that abuse, and we intend to keep doing so.”

A suspected illegal immigrant working as a delivery driver being arrested

There are reports that asylum seekers can rent legitimate delivery-driver accounts within hours of arriving in the country – skipping employment legality checks.

Uber Eats, Deliveroo, and Just Eat all told Sky News they’re continuing to strengthen the technology they use to remove anyone working illegally.

But a new Border Security Bill, working its way through Parliament, could see companies fined £60,000 for each illegal worker discovered, director disqualifications and potential prison sentences of up to five years.

“I had them all in to see me last week and I told them in no uncertain terms that we take a very tough line on this kind of abuse and they’ve got to change their systems so they can drive it out and off their platforms,” the minister tells me.

Read more:
Welfare bill passes final Commons stage after another concession
Ex-Tory chairman defects to Reform
Wealth tax could be coming to the UK – what is it?

The gig economy – so prevalent in every city – creates another incentive for those wanting to risk their lives coming to the UK illegally.

More than 20,000 migrants have crossed the English Channel to the UK in 2025 – a record number at this point of the year.

A suspected illegal immigrant working as a delivery driver holds his helmet

For some of those who arrive, a bike and a phone provide a way to repay debts to gang masters.

There were eight arrests today in Bristol, one or two taken into custody, but it was 12 hours of hard work by a dozen immigration officers and the support of the police.

As two mopeds are pushed onto a low-loader, you can’t help but feel, despite the best intentions, that at the moment, this is a losing battle.

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This flimsy vessel carrying migrants could reach British waters in a few hours’ time

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This flimsy vessel carrying migrants could be hours away from reaching British waters

We see the boat from a distance – the orange of the life jackets reflected in the rising sun.

And as we draw closer, we can make out dozens of people crowded on board as it sets off from the shore, from a beach near Dunkirk.

There is no sign of any police activity on the shore, and there are no police vessels in the water.

Instead, the migrants crammed into an inflatable dinghy are being watched by us, on board a private boat, and the looming figure of the Minck, a French search and rescue ship that soon arrives.

Picture to go with Adam Parsons' eyewitness of migrants crossing on 10/07/25
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Minck, a French search and rescue ship, shadows the boat

The dinghy meanders. It’s not heading towards Britain but rather hugging the coast.

A few of the passengers wave at us cheerfully, but then the boat starts to head back towards the shore.

Picture to go with Adam Parsons' eyewitness of migrants crossing on 10/07/25
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Sky’s Adam Parsons at the scene

As it nears a different beach, we see a police vehicle – a dune buggy – heading down to meet it.

Normal practice is for French police officers to slice through the material of any of these small boats that end up back on shore.

Two police officers get out of the buggy and wait. A police helicopter arrives and circles above, performing a tight circle over the heads of the migrants.

The police think they might be about to go back on to the beach; in fact, these passengers know that most of them are staying put.

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The boat stops a short distance from the shore and four people jump out. As they wade towards the beach, the boat turns and starts to head back out to sea.

We see the two police officers approach these four men and have a brief conversation.

They don’t appear to check the bags they are carrying and, if they do question them about why they left the boat, it is the most cursory of conversations.

In reality, these people probably don’t speak French but they were almost certainly involved in arranging this crossing, which is against the law. But all four walk away, disappearing into the dunes at the back of the beach.

Read more:
Why do so many from around the world try to cross the Channel?
Channel crossings rise by 50% in first six months of 2025

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Why do migrants want to come to the UK?

We follow the boat as it chugs off in the direction of Britain, carrying around 50 people.

The Minck returns to shadowing its progress, but its job is limited to offering help if the boat gets into trouble.

Otherwise, if the engine keeps working, then this flimsy vessel will reach British waters in a few hours’ time.

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