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A Tory social media campaign suggests the party fears a Labour landslide in the upcoming general election, as minister Grant Shapps says they are fighting to avoid a Labour “supermajority”.

The Conservatives’ latest advertising campaign appears to target potential Reform voters, warning them that the Tories could be reduced to just 57 seats in the next parliament, even if Reform picked up no seats.

It urges them not to risk handing Labour the keys to Number 10 with a majority that may surpass even the 1997 landslide under Tony Blair.

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The advert is an admission of Labour’s vast lead in the polls, currently 20 percentage points ahead of the Tories, according to the latest exclusive YouGov poll for Sky News.

Earlier on Sky News’ Breakfast with Kay Burley, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps sought to further downplay Reform’s rising popularity.

Asked about the fact Reform is now on 17%, just one point behind the Tories, Mr Shapps said: “As far as I’m aware, not a single person has cast a vote in this country yet, so let’s wait and see”.

He said the “only other option” for whoever gets into Downing Street “is Keir Starmer”.

Rishi Sunak today also warned against giving Labour a “blank cheque”, but has “absolutely not” given up hope of winning the election, he told reporters on the campaign bus.

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Live from Grimsby, a key target town in the campaign, the two will face questions from political editor Beth Rigby and the studio audience.

Read more:
Conservatives and Reform ‘tantalisingly close to a crossover’ in the polls
The truth behind claims leaders will make in tonight’s debate

Mr Shapps also said that to ensure proper accountability, “you don’t want to have somebody receive a supermajority”.

He told Times Radio earlier: “In this case, of course, the concern would be that if Keir Starmer were to go into No 10… and that power was in some way unchecked, it would be very bad news for people in this country”.

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Mr Shapps added: “It’s perfectly legitimate to say the country doesn’t function well when you get majorities the size of Blair’s or even bigger, and we would say there are a lot of very good, hardworking MPs who can hold the government of the day to account, and we’d say those are Conservative MPs.”

The defence secretary is one of the high-profile Tories set to lose their seats in the election, along with Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Commons leader Penny Mordaunt, according to Sky’s YouGov poll last week.

Preventing wipeout may be aim of Tories’ social media campaign


Tom Cheshire

Tom Cheshire

Online campaign correspondent

@chesh

From that social media post advertising just 57 Conservative seats – and the talk of a Labour “supermajority” – it may look like the Tories are already admitting defeat and seeking merely to limit its scale.

Not many parties seeking to govern highlight their own potential demise as a reason to vote for them after all.

And that’s the message in their online adverts too.

The most recent adverts on Facebook and Instagram warn voting for a particular party – the text changes between Reform, the Lib Dems and Labour – would be “handing Keir Starmer a massive majority”.

And they’re almost all attack ads: of the newest ads, you have to scroll past more than 40 before you get to the first that speaks about Tory policy, rather than talking about Labour.

Compare that to recent Labour adverts – their message is a lot more positive and members of the shadow cabinet are put front and centre.

The other sign the Conservatives may be anticipating a heavy defeat is the amount of money they’re spending on digital ads.

It’s far less than Labour, according to data from Sky News election partner Who Targets Me. If this were a tight race you’d expect them to be piling in.

But if victory is out of grasp, perhaps they only want to spend enough to prevent wipeout.

Sir Keir insisted Labour was not complacent about victory but urged voters to give him the mandate to deliver change.

He said: “We know that we have to earn every vote.

“Not a single vote has been cast and I know that every day we have to make a positive case for change.”

This morning official figures suggested the economy flatlined in April – an outcome long expected as the very wet weather had dampened retail sales and construction output.

Liberal Democrat Treasury spokeswoman Sarah Olney said: “The Conservatives have utterly failed to deliver the growth they repeatedly promised, instead presiding over stagnation and economic misery for hardworking families across the country.”

But the chancellor said the figures showed the economy “grew by 0.7% in the three months to April”.

“There is more to do, but the economy is turning a corner and inflation is back down to normal,” he said.

The Lib Dems have seen a four-point rise in their polling numbers to 15%, while the Green Party has crept up one point to 8%.

Launching their manifesto today, the Greens are setting out plans to tax “multimillionaires and billionaires” to fund improvements to health, housing, transport and the green economy.

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Public ‘at risk’ as more inmates sent to open prisons – with another manhunt under way

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Public 'at risk' as more inmates sent to open prisons - with another manhunt under way

Public safety is “at risk” because more inmates are being sent to prisons with minimal security, a serving governor has warned – as details emerge of another manhunt for a foreign national offender.

Mark Drury – speaking in his role as representative for open prison governors at the Prison Governors’ Association – told Sky News open prisons that have had no absconders for “many years” are now “suddenly” experiencing a rise in cases.

It comes after a man who was serving a 21-year sentence for kidnap and grievous bodily harm absconded from an open prison in Sussex last month.

Sky News has learned that Ola Abimbola is a foreign national offender who still hasn’t returned to HMP Ford – and Sussex Police says it is working with partners to find him.

WARNING: Some readers may find the content in this article distressing

Ola Abimbola absconded from an open prison. Pic: Sussex Police
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Ola Abimbola absconded from an open prison. Pic: Sussex Police

For Natalie Queiroz, who was stabbed 24 times by her ex-partner while she was eight months’ pregnant with their child, the warnings could not feel starker.

Natalie sustained injuries to all her major organs and her arms, while the knife only missed her unborn baby by 2mm.

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“Nobody expected either of us to survive,” she told Sky News.

Babur Raja was sentenced to 18 years for attempted murder, but Natalie has recently been told that he’s set to be moved to an open prison four years earlier than planned.

“Any day now, my ex who created this untold horror is about to go to an open prison,” Natalie said.

Open prisons – otherwise known as Category D jails – have minimal security and are traditionally used to house prisoners right at the end of their sentence, to prepare them for integrating back into society.

With overcrowding in higher security jails, policy changes mean more prisoners are eligible for a transfer to open conditions earlier on in their sentence.

Natalie Queiroz was stabbed 24 times by her ex-partner
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Natalie Queiroz was stabbed 24 times by her ex-partner

“It doesn’t feel right, it’s terrifying, and it also doesn’t feel like justice,” Natalie said, wiping away tears at points.

Previously, rules stated a transfer to open prison could only take place within three years of their eligibility for parole – but no earlier than five years before their automatic release date.

The five-year component was dropped in March last year under the previous government, but the parole eligibility element was extended to five years in April 2025.

Raja, who is due for release in 2034, has parole eligibility 12 years into his sentence, which is 2028.

Under the rule change, this eligibility for open prison is set for this year – but under the new rules it could have been 2023, which is within five years of his parole date.

Another change, introduced in the spring, means certain offenders can be assumed suitable for open prisons three years early – extended from two years.

Natalie says her ex-partner Babur Raja caused 'untold horror'
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Natalie says her ex-partner Babur Raja caused ‘untold horror’

Natalie has been campaigning to prevent violent offenders and domestic abuse perpetrators from being eligible to transfer to an open prison early.

She’s had meetings with ministers and raised both her case and others.

“They actually said – he is dangerous,” she told Sky News.

“I said to [the minister]: ‘How can you make a risk assessment for someone like that?’

“And they went: ‘If we’re honest, we can’t’.”

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What’s wrong with our prisons?

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The government told Sky News that Raja’s crimes were “horrific” and that their “thoughts remain with the victim”.

They also insist that the “small number of offenders eligible for moves to open prison face a strict, thorough risk assessment” – while anyone breaking the rules “can be immediately returned”.

Mark Drury, a representative of the Prison Governors' Association
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Mark Drury, a representative of the Prison Governors’ Association

But Mr Drury describes risk assessments as an “algorithm tick box” because of “the pressure on offender management units”.

These warnings come at an already embarrassing time for the Prison Service after migrant sex offender Hadush Kebatu was mistakenly freed last month.

This week, it emerged two others have been freed in error since then, amid new release checks.

In response to this report, the Ministry of Justice says it “inherited a justice system in crisis, with prisons days away from collapse” – forcing “firm action to get the situation back under control”.

The government has promised to add 14,000 new prison places by 2031 and introduce sentencing reforms.

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Congressional letter summons Andrew Mountbatten Windsor to US to explain Epstein links

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Congressional letter summons Andrew Mountbatten Windsor to US to explain Epstein links

The US Congress has written to Andrew Mountbatten Windsor requesting an interview with him in connection with his “long-standing friendship” with paedophile financier Jeffrey Epstein.

The Committee on Oversight and Government Reform said it is investigating the late financier’s “sex trafficking operations”.

It told Andrew: “The committee is seeking to uncover the identities of Mr Epstein’s co-conspirators and enablers, and to understand the full extent of his criminal operations.

“Well-documented allegations against you, along with your long-standing friendship with Mr Epstein, indicate that you may possess knowledge of his activities relevant to our investigation.

“In the interest of justice for the victims of Jeffrey Epstein, we request that you co-operate with the committee’s investigation by sitting for a transcribed interview with the committee.”

Read the letter in full

The congressional committee wants to understand any 'activities' relevant to its Epstein investigation. PA file pic
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The congressional committee wants to understand any ‘activities’ relevant to its Epstein investigation. PA file pic

Virginia Giuffre, who died in April, accused Andrew of sexually assaulting her after being introduced by Epstein. Andrew has always vehemently denied her accusations.

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The letter to the former prince, is addressed to Royal Lodge, Windsor Great Park, the home he agreed last week to leave, when he was stripped of his royal titles.

It outlines his “close relationship” with Epstein and references a recently revealed 2011 email exchange in which Andrew told him “we are in this together”.

And it says the committee has identified “financial records containing notations such as ‘massage for Andrew’ that raise serious questions”.

Read more:
Andrew’s fall from grace
Can William escape Andrew questions in Brazil?

The committee said Andrew’s links to Epstein “further confirms our suspicion that you may have valuable information about the crimes committed by Mr Epstein and his co-conspirators”.

The letter, signed by 16 members of Congress, requested Andrew responds by 20 November.

It came as the King officially stripped his disgraced brother of both his HRH style and his prince title.

The move followed the publication Ms Giuffre’s posthumous memoirs, and the US government’s release of documents from the paedophile’s estate.

Ms Giuffre alleged she was forced to have sex with Andrew three times – once at convicted sex trafficker Ghislaine Maxwell’s home in London, once in Epstein’s address in Manhattan, and once on the disgraced financier’s private island, Little St James.

The incident at Maxwell’s home allegedly occurred when Ms Giuffre was 17 years old.

Epstein took his own life in a New York prison in 2019 while awaiting trial on sex trafficking and conspiracy charges.

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Congress requests Andrew explain Jeffrey Epstein friendship – read letter in full

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Congress requests Andrew explain Jeffrey Epstein friendship - read letter in full

Andrew Mountbatten Windsor has been summoned by Congress to answer questions about his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein.

The Committee on Oversight and Government Reform said it is investigating the late financier’s “sex trafficking operations”.

Andrew’s friendship with the paedophile has come under intense scrutiny in recent years and has led to him being stripped of his titles and made to leave his accommodation at Royal Lodge on the Windsor estate.

The memoir of Virginia Giuffre, one of Epstein’s victims, was posthumously published last month and in it she alleged she had sex with Andrew three times while she was a teenager.

Andrew paid a settlement to Ms Giuffre in 2022 and has always denied wrongdoing. He has previously resisted calls to be summoned to the US.

Here is the letter in full:

We write to seek your cooperation in the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform’s (Committee) investigation into Jeffrey Epstein’s sex trafficking operations. The Committee is seeking to uncover the identities of Mr. Epstein’s co-conspirators and enablers and to understand the full extent of his criminal operations.

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Well-documented allegations against you, along with your long-standing friendship with Mr. Epstein, indicate that you may possess knowledge of his activities relevant to our investigation. In the interest of justice for the victims of Jeffrey Epstein, we request that you cooperate with the Committee’s investigation by sitting for a transcribed interview with the Committee.

It has been publicly reported that your friendship with Mr. Epstein began in 1999 and that you remained close through and after his 2008 conviction for procuring minors for prostitution.

It has also been reported that you traveled with Mr. Epstein to his New York residence, the Queen’s residence at Balmoral, and to Mr. Epstein’s private island in the U.S. Virgin Islands, where you have been accused of abusing minors.

This close relationship with Mr. Epstein, coupled with the recently revealed 2011 email exchange in which you wrote to him “we are in this together,” further confirms our suspicion that you may have valuable information about the crimes committed by Mr. Epstein and his co-conspirators.

As you are well aware, Virginia Roberts Giuffre made several allegations that you abused her when she was just 17 years old.

In her 2021 lawsuit, Ms. Giuffre alleged that she was forcibly “lent out” to you for sexual purposes on three separate occasions. In addition to these allegations, flight logs document several instances in which you were a passenger on Mr. Epstein’s plane between 1999 and 2006, while his criminal activities were ongoing.

In response to a subpoena issued to the Epstein estate, the Committee has identified financial records containing notations such as “massage for Andrew” that raise serious questions regarding the nature of your relationship with Mr. Epstein and related financial transactions.

In her posthumous memoir, Ms. Giuffre expressed a fear of retaliation if she made allegations against you, and writes that the settlement agreement you executed with her restricted her to one-year gag order designed to protect the Crown’s reputation.

Recent reporting confirms those fears, as law enforcement authorities in the United Kingdom have launched an investigation into allegations that you asked your personal protection officer to “dig up dirt” for a smear campaign against Ms. Giuffre in 2011.

This fear of retaliation has been a persistent obstacle to many of those who were victimized in their fight for justice. In addition to Mr. Epstein’s crimes, we are investigating any such efforts to silence, intimidate, or threaten victims, and are interested in any avenues that may further shed light on these activities.

Given these recent events and the appalling allegations that have come to light from Ms. Giuffre’s memoir and other reliable sources, the Committee requests that you make yourself available for a transcribed interview with the Committee and provide insight into the crimes of Jeffrey Epstein’s co-conspirators.

Due to the urgency and gravity of this matter, we ask that you provide a response to the Committee’s interest by November 20, 2025.

The Committee on Oversight and Government Reform is the principal oversight committee of the House of Representatives and has broad authority to investigate “any matter” at “any time” under House Rule X. If you have any questions about this request, please contact Committee Democratic staff at (202) 225-5051. Thank you for your prompt attention to this request.

The letter is signed by 16 members of the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform.

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