How do Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer’s numbers and pledges measure up?
At the Sky News leaders’ event, both Sir Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak were challenged on their records in opposition and in office, as well as their plans for the future – and both at times struggled to explain away failures and omissions.
Sir Keir went first and found himself challenged over his previous support for Jeremy Corbyn, which the Conservatives see as an opportunity, given the efforts he has made to distance his Labour Party from the now-expelled former leader.
His campaign to replace Mr Corbyn in 2020 was also brought up by interviewer Beth Rigby, who said the Labour leader had ditched “six or seven” of the pledges he described at the time as “the moral case for socialism”.
A quick check of the scorecard shows Rigby was right.
Sir Keir’s promise to increase income tax for the top 5% of earners has been ditched, as has a promise to “support the abolition of tuition fees”, while a commitment to abolish Universal Credit has become “fundamental reform”.
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‘I was certain we would lose in 2019’
The promised ‘Green New Deal’ survives but has been dramatically scaled back from £28bn a year to £23bn over five. And a red pen has gone through nationalising “rail, mail, energy and water”.
Only railways will return to public ownership, with Sir Keir arguing that in the case of energy companies, the price of buying out shareholders was too high.
A significant indicator of what Sir Keir might do in the future was what he said – and importantly, did not say – on tax.
The Labour leader repeated his position that he would not “raise taxes for working people”, ruling out increasing income tax, national insurance and VAT. But under questioning, he repeatedly refused to rule out other potential tax rises, including capital gains tax (CGT).
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CGT is paid on capital gains, predominantly from the sale of assets, at rates between 10% and 28%. These rates are much lower than income tax, which starts at 20% and rises to 45% – meaning the asset-rich living off gains can pay less tax than a nurse.
The Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts CGT will raise £15.2bn this year, rising to £23.5bn in 2028-29, but University of Warwick research has estimated equalising CGT rates with income tax could raise a further £16.9bn annually.
Sir Keir’s determination not to commit suggests a CGT raise remains firmly on the table when, and if, Rachel Reeves writes her first budget.
If it is introduced, she would not be the first new chancellor of the exchequer to raise taxes immediately after an election.
Resolution Foundation research shows, since 1992, every chancellor but one has raised taxes in their first two fiscal events after polling day by an average of £21bn.
Has Rishi Sunak delivered on his pledges?
If the challenge for Sir Keir is what he might do in office, the problem for Mr Sunak is what he has done.
Being prime minister of a party that’s been in power for 14 years leaves nowhere to hide, and Mr Sunak put a target on his back by setting five very specific pledges on which he can be judged back in January last year.
He promised to halve inflation, grow the economy, get debt falling, reduce NHS waiting lists and “stop the boats” by the year’s end.
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Did Sunak’s claims add up?
On only one count, inflation, can he unambiguously be said to have succeeded, and his influence over even that is contested ground.
Inflation did fall from 11% to less than half that, and is currently 2.6%, but global factors, specifically falling energy prices, and the action of central banks were more influential than his decisions not to stoke domestic inflation.
Mr Sunak told Rigby inflation was now “back to normal” but that applies only to the rate of increase in prices, rather than the impact on costs.
Seen through that lens, prices are now around 20% higher than they were before the war in Ukraine, a new “normal” few people relish.
Pic: PA
On growth, Mr Sunak was never explicit about which measure he would use. Growth in the final quarter of 2023 was down 0.3% on the previous one, but overall growth for the year was up by 0.1% – the narrowest of margins, but enough to claim success.
The rest of the list makes grim reading for the prime minister. Debt is not falling, though it is forecast to come down in five years, the measure that both Conservatives and Labour use to set their fiscal rules.
The NHS and immigration were even tougher areas for the PM, the statistical scorecard meshing with the lived reality of people experiencing under-pressure public services.
Waiting lists have risen dramatically, up to a peak of 7.4 million before falling back a little in the last few months. Unlike in the first TV debate, Mr Sunak did not try to argue that a small reduction amounted to a win.
On small boats he was more combative but on no measure can he be said to have stopped the crossings. In 2023, there were around 15,000 fewer crossings than in the year before. But this year to date, they’re up.
The broader immigration picture is also problematic. Every Conservative prime minister from Cameron to Truss promised to cut net migration to the tens of thousands and failed.
Mr Sunak set no target but has overseen the highest ever figure, more than 800,000 people last year, a number that appeared to stick with the audience in Grimsby.
Net migration is falling on the latest figures, and fewer visas are being granted after rules were tightened on the dependants of students and care workers, and salary thresholds for skilled workers increased.
Despite the ongoing market meltdown on US trade tariffs, executives at major cryptocurrency firms Messari and Sygnum are bullish on institutional Bitcoin adoption later in 2025.
Speaking on a panel at Paris Blockchain Week on April 8, Messari CEO Eric Turner and Sygnum Bank co-founder Thomas Eichenberger said they expect a significant shift in the banking sector’s involvement with crypto in the second half of the year.
According to the executives, the global banking push into Bitcoin (BTC) services has great potential to happen in the second half of 2025 as regulators embrace crypto, including stablecoins and crypto services by banks.
“I think we’re probably looking at a muted Q2, but I’m really excited for Q3 and Q4,” Messari’s Turner said during the panel discussion moderated by Cointelegraph CEO Yana Prikhodchenko, forecasting “really interesting” things coming to the crypto market in 2025.
Crypto adoption is not just about Trump
While some investors focus on the pro-crypto stance of US President Donald Trump, Turner emphasized that broader regulatory momentum is what matters most.
“When you look at the potential of having market structure regulation in the US, stablecoin regulation, and just the fact that across the board, not just President Trump himself, but the SEC and all these regulatory industries are really embracing crypto,” Turner said.
Paris Blockchain Week’s panel with Cointelegraph CEO Yana Prikhodchenko, Bancor co-founder Eyal Hertzog, Sygnum co-founder Thomas Eichenberger, Messari CEO Eric Turner, AWS fintech leader Alex Matsuo and Near chief operating officer Chris Donovan. Source: Cointelegraph
Sygnum co-founder Thomas Eichenberger said international banks with US branches are also poised to enter the market once the legal landscape becomes clearer:
“I think it’s a matter of fact that US banks are preparing to be able to offer crypto custody and at least crypto spot trading services anytime soon.”
“I think by then I would agree with you, Eric,” he continued, projecting a continued phase of market uncertainty until the US establishes a clear regulatory framework.
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Banks are no longer afraid of Bitcoin regulators
With the establishment of clear crypto rules for banks in the US, there will be a rush for crypto services by large international banks that are incorporated outside of the US but have a US-based presence, Eichenberger said.
“Some of them may have had their strategic plans in their cupboard to offer crypto-related services, but have been afraid that at some point they will be gone after by any of the US regulatory authorities,” he said, adding:
“Now I think there’s no one to be afraid of anymore in terms of regulatory authorities worldwide. So I think many of the large international banks will launch this year.”
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Global trade tensions triggered by US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff measures may come to an end with a potential deal with China as investors remain concerned about escalation from both sides.
Trump’s April 2 announcement of reciprocal import tariffs sent shockwaves through global equity and crypto markets. The measures include a 10% baseline tariff on all imported goods, effective April 5, with higher levies — such as a 34% tariff on Chinese imports — set to begin on April 9.
However, the tariff negotiations may only be “posturing” for the US to reach an agreement with China, according to Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor.
“In the end, almost all the other tariff negotiations and rhetoric are all about getting China to agree a deal,” Pal wrote in an April 8 X post, adding:
“That is the big prize and both China and the US understand it and need it. Everything else is negotiation posturing. China needs a weaker $ and the US needs tariffs.”
Source: Raoul Pal
“Also, the US is trying to shut down China tariff arbitrage using other channels such as Mexico or Vietnam,” Pal said.
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China retaliates with new tariffs
Considering China’s latest retaliatory measures, a resolution remains unlikely in the short term.
In response to US tariffs, China imposed a 34% tariff on all US imports effective April 10, media outlet Xinhua News reported on April 4. China’s foreign ministry also vowed to “fight till the end” against Trump’s tariffs, which it called “bullying” by the world’s largest economy.
China overtakes the US in global trade. Source: Econovis
China overtook the US in 2012 to become the world’s largest trading nation by the total value of exports and imports, surpassing $4 trillion in goods trade that year, according to The Guardian.
Crypto markets watch trade outcome closely
As the trade dispute continues to evolve, analysts say a potential agreement between the two global superpowers could serve as a key catalyst for recovery in digital asset markets.
Crypto markets have a 70% chance to bottom by June 2025 before recovering, Nansen analysts predicted.
Related: Crypto market bottom likely by June despite tariff fears: Finance Redefined
Investor appetite for risk assets such as Bitcoin will depend on the global tariff responses from other countries, according to Nicolai Sondergaard, a research analyst at Nansen.
“We have reached somewhat of a local bottom in regard to tariffs and the impact on prices,” the analyst said during Cointelegraph’s Chainreaction live show on X, adding:
“Trump came out guns blazing, and we’ve mostly seen the worst from the US side, so we’ll see if other countries are willing to drop some of the tariffs because it’s very likely the US will do the same.”
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A Nigerian court has reportedly delayed the country’s tax evasion case against Binance until April 30 to give time for Nigeria’s tax authority to respond to a request from the crypto exchange.
Reuters reported on April 7 that a lawyer for Binance, Chukwuka Ikwuazom, asked a court the same day to invalidate an order allowing for court documents to be served to the company via email.
Binance doesn’t have an office in Nigeria and Ikwuazom claimed the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) didn’t get court permission to serve court documents to Binance outside the country.
“On the whole the order for the substituted service as granted by the court on February 11, 2025 on Binance who is … registered under the laws of Cayman Islands and resident in Cayman Islands is improper and should be set aside,” he said.
FIRS sued Binance in February, claiming the exchange owed $2 billion in back taxes and should be made to pay $79.5 billion for damages to the local economy as its its operations allegedly destabilized the country’s currency, the naira, which Binance denies.
It also reportedly alleged that Binance is liable to pay corporate income tax in Nigeria, as it has a “significant economic presence” there, with FIRS requesting a court order for the exchange to pay income taxes for 2022 and 2023, plus a 10% annual penalty on unpaid amounts along with a nearly a 27% interest rate on the unpaid taxes.
Nigeria’s legal history with Binance
In February 2024, Nigeria arrested and detained Binance executives Tigran Gambaryan and Nadeem Anjarwalla on tax fraud and money laundering charges. The country dropped the tax charges against both in June and the remaining charge against Gambaryan in October.
Tigran Gambaryan (right) was seen in a September video struggling to walk into a courtroom in the Nigerian capital of Abuja. Source: X
Anjarwalla managed to slip his guards and escape Nigerian custody to Kenya in March last year and is apparently still at large.
Related: Binance exec shares details about release from Nigerian detention
Gambaryan, a US citizen, returned home in October after reports suggested his health had deteriorated during his detainment with reported cases of pneumonia, malaria and a herniated spinal disc that may need surgery.
Binance stopped its naira currency deposits and withdrawals in March 2024, effectively leaving the Nigerian market.
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