How do Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer’s numbers and pledges measure up?
At the Sky News leaders’ event, both Sir Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak were challenged on their records in opposition and in office, as well as their plans for the future – and both at times struggled to explain away failures and omissions.
Sir Keir went first and found himself challenged over his previous support for Jeremy Corbyn, which the Conservatives see as an opportunity, given the efforts he has made to distance his Labour Party from the now-expelled former leader.
His campaign to replace Mr Corbyn in 2020 was also brought up by interviewer Beth Rigby, who said the Labour leader had ditched “six or seven” of the pledges he described at the time as “the moral case for socialism”.
A quick check of the scorecard shows Rigby was right.
Sir Keir’s promise to increase income tax for the top 5% of earners has been ditched, as has a promise to “support the abolition of tuition fees”, while a commitment to abolish Universal Credit has become “fundamental reform”.
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The promised ‘Green New Deal’ survives but has been dramatically scaled back from £28bn a year to £23bn over five. And a red pen has gone through nationalising “rail, mail, energy and water”.
Only railways will return to public ownership, with Sir Keir arguing that in the case of energy companies, the price of buying out shareholders was too high.
A significant indicator of what Sir Keir might do in the future was what he said – and importantly, did not say – on tax.
The Labour leader repeated his position that he would not “raise taxes for working people”, ruling out increasing income tax, national insurance and VAT. But under questioning, he repeatedly refused to rule out other potential tax rises, including capital gains tax (CGT).
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CGT is paid on capital gains, predominantly from the sale of assets, at rates between 10% and 28%. These rates are much lower than income tax, which starts at 20% and rises to 45% – meaning the asset-rich living off gains can pay less tax than a nurse.
The Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts CGT will raise £15.2bn this year, rising to £23.5bn in 2028-29, but University of Warwick research has estimated equalising CGT rates with income tax could raise a further £16.9bn annually.
Sir Keir’s determination not to commit suggests a CGT raise remains firmly on the table when, and if, Rachel Reeves writes her first budget.
If it is introduced, she would not be the first new chancellor of the exchequer to raise taxes immediately after an election.
Resolution Foundation research shows, since 1992, every chancellor but one has raised taxes in their first two fiscal events after polling day by an average of £21bn.
Has Rishi Sunak delivered on his pledges?
If the challenge for Sir Keir is what he might do in office, the problem for Mr Sunak is what he has done.
Being prime minister of a party that’s been in power for 14 years leaves nowhere to hide, and Mr Sunak put a target on his back by setting five very specific pledges on which he can be judged back in January last year.
He promised to halve inflation, grow the economy, get debt falling, reduce NHS waiting lists and “stop the boats” by the year’s end.
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Did Sunak’s claims add up?
On only one count, inflation, can he unambiguously be said to have succeeded, and his influence over even that is contested ground.
Inflation did fall from 11% to less than half that, and is currently 2.6%, but global factors, specifically falling energy prices, and the action of central banks were more influential than his decisions not to stoke domestic inflation.
Mr Sunak told Rigby inflation was now “back to normal” but that applies only to the rate of increase in prices, rather than the impact on costs.
Seen through that lens, prices are now around 20% higher than they were before the war in Ukraine, a new “normal” few people relish.
Pic: PA
On growth, Mr Sunak was never explicit about which measure he would use. Growth in the final quarter of 2023 was down 0.3% on the previous one, but overall growth for the year was up by 0.1% – the narrowest of margins, but enough to claim success.
The rest of the list makes grim reading for the prime minister. Debt is not falling, though it is forecast to come down in five years, the measure that both Conservatives and Labour use to set their fiscal rules.
The NHS and immigration were even tougher areas for the PM, the statistical scorecard meshing with the lived reality of people experiencing under-pressure public services.
Waiting lists have risen dramatically, up to a peak of 7.4 million before falling back a little in the last few months. Unlike in the first TV debate, Mr Sunak did not try to argue that a small reduction amounted to a win.
On small boats he was more combative but on no measure can he be said to have stopped the crossings. In 2023, there were around 15,000 fewer crossings than in the year before. But this year to date, they’re up.
The broader immigration picture is also problematic. Every Conservative prime minister from Cameron to Truss promised to cut net migration to the tens of thousands and failed.
Mr Sunak set no target but has overseen the highest ever figure, more than 800,000 people last year, a number that appeared to stick with the audience in Grimsby.
Net migration is falling on the latest figures, and fewer visas are being granted after rules were tightened on the dependants of students and care workers, and salary thresholds for skilled workers increased.
Politics
‘Shameful’ that black boys in London more likely to die than white boys, says Met Police chief
It is “shameful” that black boys growing up in London are “far more likely” to die than white boys, Metropolitan Police chief Sir Mark Rowley has told Sky News.
The commissioner told Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips that relations with minority communities “is difficult for us”.
Sir Mark, who came out of retirement to become head of the UK’s largest police force in 2022, said: “We can’t pretend otherwise that we’ve got a history between policing and black communities where policing has got a lot wrong.
“And we get a lot more right today, but we do still make mistakes. That’s not in doubt. I’m being as relentless in that as it can be.”
He said the “vast majority” of the force are “good people”.
However, he added: “But that legacy, combined with the tragedy that some of this crime falls most heavily in black communities, that creates a real problem because the legacy creates concern.”
Sir Mark, who also leads the UK’s counter-terrorism policing, said it is “not right” that black boys growing up in London “are far more likely to be dead by the time they’re 18” than white boys.
“That’s, I think, shameful for the city,” he admitted.
The Met Police chief’s admission comes two years after an official report found the force is institutionally racist, misogynistic and homophobic.
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Police chase suspected phone thief
Baroness Casey was commissioned in 2021 to look into the Met Police after serving police officer Wayne Couzens abducted, raped and murdered Sarah Everard.
She pinned the primary blame for the Met’s culture on its past leadership and found that stop and search and the use of force against black people was excessive.
At the time, Sir Mark, who had been commissioner for six months when the report was published, said he would not use the labels of institutionally racist, institutionally misogynistic and institutionally homophobic, which Casey insisted the Met deserved.
However, London Mayor Sadiq Khan, who helped hire Sir Mark – and could fire him – made it clear the commissioner agreed with Baroness Casey’s verdict.
After the report was released, Sir Mark said “institutional” was political language so he was not going to use it, but he accepted “we have racists, misogynists…systematic failings, management failings, cultural failings”.
A few months after the report, Sir Mark launched a two-year £366m plan to overhaul the Met, including increased emphasis on neighbourhood policing to rebuild public trust and plans to recruit 500 more community support officers and an extra 565 people to work with teams investigating domestic violence, sexual offences and child sexual abuse and exploitation.
Watch the full interview on Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips from 8.30am on Sunday.
Labour’s largest union donor, Unite, has voted to suspend Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner over her role in the Birmingham bin strike row.
Members of the trade union, one of the UK’s largest, also “overwhelmingly” voted to “re-examine its relationship” with Labour over the issue.
They said Ms Rayner, who is also housing, communities and local government secretary, Birmingham Council’s leader, John Cotton, and other Labour councillors had been suspended for “bringing the union into disrepute”.
There was confusion over Ms Rayner’s membership of Unite, with her office having said she was no longer a member and resigned months ago and therefore could not be suspended.
But Unite said she was registered as a member. Parliament’s latest register of interests had her down as a member in May.
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The union said an emergency motion was put to members at its policy conference in Brighton on Friday.
Unite is one of the Labour Party’s largest union donors, donating £414,610 in the first quarter of 2025 – the highest amount in that period by a union, company or individual.
The union condemned Birmingham’s Labour council and the government for “attacking the bin workers”.
Mountains of rubbish have been piling up in the city since January after workers first went on strike over changes to their pay, with all-out strike action starting in March. An agreement has still not been made.
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Rat catcher tackling Birmingham’s bins problem
Ms Rayner and the councillors had their membership suspended for “effectively firing and rehiring the workers, who are striking over pay cuts of up to £8,000”, the union added.
‘Missing in action’
General secretary Sharon Graham told Sky News on Saturday morning: “Angela Rayner, who has the power to solve this dispute, has been missing in action, has not been involved, is refusing to come to the table.”
She had earlier said: “Unite is crystal clear, it will call out bad employers regardless of the colour of their rosette.
“Angela Rayner has had every opportunity to intervene and resolve this dispute but has instead backed a rogue council that has peddled lies and smeared its workers fighting huge pay cuts.
“The disgraceful actions of the government and a so-called Labour council, is essentially fire and rehire and makes a joke of the Employment Relations Act promises.
“People up and down the country are asking whose side is the Labour government on and coming up with the answer not workers.”
Piles of rubbish built up around Birmingham because of the strike over pay
Sir Keir Starmer’s spokesman said the government’s “priority is and always has been the residents of Birmingham”.
He said the decision by Unite workers to go on strike had “caused disruption” to the city.
“We’ve worked to clean up streets and remain in close contact with the council […] as we support its recovery,” he added.
A total of 800 Unite delegates voted on the motion.
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