How do Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer’s numbers and pledges measure up?

Published

10 months ago

June 12, 2024

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At the Sky News leaders’ event, both Sir Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak were challenged on their records in opposition and in office, as well as their plans for the future – and both at times struggled to explain away failures and omissions.

Sir Keir went first and found himself challenged over his previous support for Jeremy Corbyn, which the Conservatives see as an opportunity, given the efforts he has made to distance his Labour Party from the now-expelled former leader.

His campaign to replace Mr Corbyn in 2020 was also brought up by interviewer Beth Rigby, who said the Labour leader had ditched “six or seven” of the pledges he described at the time as “the moral case for socialism”.

A quick check of the scorecard shows Rigby was right.

Sir Keir’s promise to increase income tax for the top 5% of earners has been ditched, as has a promise to “support the abolition of tuition fees”, while a commitment to abolish Universal Credit has become “fundamental reform”.

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The promised ‘Green New Deal’ survives but has been dramatically scaled back from £28bn a year to £23bn over five. And a red pen has gone through nationalising “rail, mail, energy and water”.

Only railways will return to public ownership, with Sir Keir arguing that in the case of energy companies, the price of buying out shareholders was too high.

A significant indicator of what Sir Keir might do in the future was what he said – and importantly, did not say – on tax.

The Labour leader repeated his position that he would not “raise taxes for working people”, ruling out increasing income tax, national insurance and VAT. But under questioning, he repeatedly refused to rule out other potential tax rises, including capital gains tax (CGT).

CGT is paid on capital gains, predominantly from the sale of assets, at rates between 10% and 28%. These rates are much lower than income tax, which starts at 20% and rises to 45% – meaning the asset-rich living off gains can pay less tax than a nurse.

The Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts CGT will raise £15.2bn this year, rising to £23.5bn in 2028-29, but University of Warwick research has estimated equalising CGT rates with income tax could raise a further £16.9bn annually.

Sir Keir’s determination not to commit suggests a CGT raise remains firmly on the table when, and if, Rachel Reeves writes her first budget.

If it is introduced, she would not be the first new chancellor of the exchequer to raise taxes immediately after an election.

Resolution Foundation research shows, since 1992, every chancellor but one has raised taxes in their first two fiscal events after polling day by an average of £21bn.

Has Rishi Sunak delivered on his pledges?

If the challenge for Sir Keir is what he might do in office, the problem for Mr Sunak is what he has done.

Being prime minister of a party that’s been in power for 14 years leaves nowhere to hide, and Mr Sunak put a target on his back by setting five very specific pledges on which he can be judged back in January last year.

He promised to halve inflation, grow the economy, get debt falling, reduce NHS waiting lists and “stop the boats” by the year’s end.

On only one count, inflation, can he unambiguously be said to have succeeded, and his influence over even that is contested ground.

Inflation did fall from 11% to less than half that, and is currently 2.6%, but global factors, specifically falling energy prices, and the action of central banks were more influential than his decisions not to stoke domestic inflation.

Mr Sunak told Rigby inflation was now “back to normal” but that applies only to the rate of increase in prices, rather than the impact on costs.

Seen through that lens, prices are now around 20% higher than they were before the war in Ukraine, a new “normal” few people relish.

On growth, Mr Sunak was never explicit about which measure he would use. Growth in the final quarter of 2023 was down 0.3% on the previous one, but overall growth for the year was up by 0.1% – the narrowest of margins, but enough to claim success.

The rest of the list makes grim reading for the prime minister. Debt is not falling, though it is forecast to come down in five years, the measure that both Conservatives and Labour use to set their fiscal rules.

The NHS and immigration were even tougher areas for the PM, the statistical scorecard meshing with the lived reality of people experiencing under-pressure public services.

Waiting lists have risen dramatically, up to a peak of 7.4 million before falling back a little in the last few months. Unlike in the first TV debate, Mr Sunak did not try to argue that a small reduction amounted to a win.

On small boats he was more combative but on no measure can he be said to have stopped the crossings. In 2023, there were around 15,000 fewer crossings than in the year before. But this year to date, they’re up.

The broader immigration picture is also problematic. Every Conservative prime minister from Cameron to Truss promised to cut net migration to the tens of thousands and failed.

Mr Sunak set no target but has overseen the highest ever figure, more than 800,000 people last year, a number that appeared to stick with the audience in Grimsby.

Net migration is falling on the latest figures, and fewer visas are being granted after rules were tightened on the dependants of students and care workers, and salary thresholds for skilled workers increased.

Politics

Planning reforms to ‘rewire the system’ and get Britain building – all while protecting wildlife

Published

14 mins ago

April 2, 2025

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Planning reforms to 'rewire the system' and get Britain building - all while protecting wildlife

Major developers will only deal with one regulator under planning reforms which ministers say will “rewire the system” to get Britain building – all while protecting the environment.

A review by former Labour adviser Dan Corry into Britain’s sluggish system of green regulation has concluded that existing environmental regulators should remain in place, while rejecting a “bonfire of regulations”.

But Mr Corry suggested there might be circumstances in which the government look at changing the wildlife and habit rules inherited from the EU, which protect individual species.

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These lie at the centre of the controversy of a £120m bat tunnel – the shed in Aylesbury which protects a rare breed from future high speed trains.

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The government has now explicitly ruled out any such change in this parliament.

Campaigners have questioned whether the changes go far enough and will make a major difference to the rate and scale of building in the UK.

Speaking to Sky News, Environment Secretary Steve Reed insisted that accepting nine of the recommendations from the Corry review would amount to wholesale reform.

The minister said: “We can get a win-win for economic growth and for nature. And that is why we are moving ahead with proposals such as appointing a lead regulator for major developments so that the developers don’t have to navigate the architecture of multiple regulators.

“They just work for a single regulator who manages all the others on their behalf. Simplifying the online planning portal.

“These are huge changes that will save developers billions of pounds and speed up decisions doing damage to the environment.”

Mr Reed insisted that there would be “no more bat tunnels” built, even though the Corry review suggests that more work needs to be done to look again at the relevant guidance.

It says: “Rapidly reviewing the existing catalogue of compliance guidance, including on protecting bats, will identify opportunities to remove duplication, ambiguity or inconsistency.

“Natural England has already agreed to review and update their advice to Local Planning Authorities on bats to ensure there is clear, proportionate and accessible advice available.”

The review will mean:

• Appointing one lead regulator for every major infrastructure project, like Heathrow expansion

• A review on how nature rules are implemented – but not the rules themselves

• Insisting regulators focus more on government priorities, particularly growth

Economist and former charity leader Mr Corry, who led the review, said it shows that “simply scrapping regulations isn’t the answer”.

“Instead we need modern, streamlined regulation that is easier for everyone to use. While short-term trade-offs may be needed, these reforms will ultimately deliver a win-win for both nature and economic growth in the longer run.”

However, Sam Richards from Britain Remade, a thinktank trying to get Britain growing, said that while the steps are welcome, the number of regulators that report to the environment department would remain the same before and after the review. He questioned whether this would have the impact ministers claimed.

Politics

Kentucky joins Vermont and South Carolina in dropping Coinbase staking suit

Published

49 mins ago

April 2, 2025

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Kentucky joins Vermont and South Carolina in dropping Coinbase staking suit

Kentucky’s finance watchdog has dismissed its lawsuit against Coinbase over the exchange’s staking rewards program, following its peers in Vermont and South Carolina.

Kentucky’s Department of Financial Institutions filed the stipulation to dismiss jointly with Coinbase on April 1, ending the state’s legal action against the exchange first filed along with 10 other state regulators in June 2023.

Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal posted to X on April 1, calling for Congress “to end this litigation-driven, state-by-state approach with a federal market structure law.”

Financial regulators from 10 states launched similar suits against Coinbase in June 2023, on the same day the Securities and Exchange Commission sued the exchange — a lawsuit the SEC dropped last month.

Seven suits against Coinbase still active

Alabama, California, Illinois, Maryland, New Jersey, Washington and Wisconsin are the seven states that are still continuing with their lawsuits, which all allege Coinbase breached securities laws with its staking rewards program.

Vermont was the first state to end its suit against Coinbase, with its Department of Financial Regulation filing an order to rescind the action on March 13, noting the SEC’s Feb. 27 decision to drop its action against the exchange and the likelihood of changes in the federal regulator’s guidance.

The South Carolina Attorney General’s securities division followed Vermont days later, dismissing its lawsuit in a joint stipulation with Coinbase on March 27.

Kentucky’s decision to drop its case against Coinbase follows just days after the state’s governor, Andy Beshear, signed a “Bitcoin Rights” bill into law on March 24 that establishes protections for crypto self-custody and exempts crypto mining from money transmitting and securities laws.

The axed state-level lawsuits come amid a stark policy change at the SEC, which has dropped or delayed multiple lawsuits against crypto companies that it filed under the Biden administration.

The federal securities watchdog has also created a Crypto Task Force that is engaging with the industry on how it should approach cryptocurrencies.

Magazine: SEC’s U-turn on crypto leaves key questions unanswered

Politics

Sir Keir Starmer says US-UK trade talks ‘well advanced’ and rejects ‘knee-jerk’ response to Donald Trump tariffs

Published

6 hours ago

April 1, 2025

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Sir Keir Starmer says US-UK trade talks 'well advanced' and rejects 'knee-jerk' response to Donald Trump tariffs

Sir Keir Starmer has said US-UK trade talks are “well advanced” ahead of tariffs expected to be imposed by Donald Trump on the UK this week – but rejected a “knee-jerk” response.

Speaking to Sky News political editor Beth Rigby, the prime minister said the UK is “working hard on an economic deal” with the US and said “rapid progress” has been made on it ahead of tariffs expected to be imposed on Wednesday.

But, he admitted: “Look, the likelihood is there will be tariffs. Nobody welcomes that, nobody wants a trade war.

“But I have to act in the national interest and that means all options have to remain on the table.”

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Sir Keir added: “We are discussing economic deals. We’re well advanced.

“These would normally take months or years, and in a matter of weeks, we’ve got well advanced in those discussions, so I think that a calm approach, a collected approach, not a knee-jerk approach, is what’s needed in the best interests of our country.”

Downing Street said on Monday the UK is expecting to be hit by new US tariffs on Wednesday – branded “liberation day” by the US president – as a deal to exempt British goods would not be reached in time.

A 25% levy on car and car parts had already been announced but the new tariffs are expected to cover all exports to the US.

Jonathan Reynolds, the business and trade secretary, earlier told Sky News he is “hopeful” the tariffs can be reversed soon.

But he warned: “The longer we don’t have a potential resolution, the more we will have to consider our own position in relation to [tariffs], precluding retaliatory tariffs.”

He added the government was taking a “calm-headed” approach in the hope a deal can be agreed but said it is only “reasonable” retaliatory tariffs are an option, echoing Sir Keir’s sentiments over the weekend.

Tariff announcement on Wednesday

Mr Trump has been threatening tariffs – import taxes – on countries with the biggest trade imbalances with the US.

However, over the weekend, he suggested the tariffs would hit all countries, but did not name them or reveal which industries would be targeted.

Mr Trump will unveil his tariff plan on Wednesday afternoon at the first Rose Garden news conference of his second term, the White House press secretary said.

“Wednesday, it will be Liberation Day in America, as President Trump has so proudly dubbed it,” Karoline Leavitt said.

“The president will be announcing a tariff plan that will roll back the unfair trade practices that have been ripping off our country for decades. He’s doing this in the best interest of the American worker.”

Tariffs would cut UK economy by 1%

UK government forecaster the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said a 20 percentage point increase in tariffs on UK goods and services would cut the size of the British economy by 1% and force tax rises this autumn.

Global markets remained flat or down on Monday in anticipation of the tariffs, with the FTSE 100 stock exchange trading about 1.3% lower on Monday, closing with a 0.9% loss.

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 rose 0.6% after a volatile day which saw it down as much as 1.7% in the morning.

However, the FTSE 100 is expected to open about 0.4% higher on Tuesday, while Asian markets also steadied, with Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 broadly unchanged after a 4% slump yesterday.