How do Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer’s numbers and pledges measure up?

Published

1 year ago

June 12, 2024

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At the Sky News leaders’ event, both Sir Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak were challenged on their records in opposition and in office, as well as their plans for the future – and both at times struggled to explain away failures and omissions.

Sir Keir went first and found himself challenged over his previous support for Jeremy Corbyn, which the Conservatives see as an opportunity, given the efforts he has made to distance his Labour Party from the now-expelled former leader.

His campaign to replace Mr Corbyn in 2020 was also brought up by interviewer Beth Rigby, who said the Labour leader had ditched “six or seven” of the pledges he described at the time as “the moral case for socialism”.

A quick check of the scorecard shows Rigby was right.

Sir Keir’s promise to increase income tax for the top 5% of earners has been ditched, as has a promise to “support the abolition of tuition fees”, while a commitment to abolish Universal Credit has become “fundamental reform”.

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The promised ‘Green New Deal’ survives but has been dramatically scaled back from £28bn a year to £23bn over five. And a red pen has gone through nationalising “rail, mail, energy and water”.

Only railways will return to public ownership, with Sir Keir arguing that in the case of energy companies, the price of buying out shareholders was too high.

A significant indicator of what Sir Keir might do in the future was what he said – and importantly, did not say – on tax.

The Labour leader repeated his position that he would not “raise taxes for working people”, ruling out increasing income tax, national insurance and VAT. But under questioning, he repeatedly refused to rule out other potential tax rises, including capital gains tax (CGT).

CGT is paid on capital gains, predominantly from the sale of assets, at rates between 10% and 28%. These rates are much lower than income tax, which starts at 20% and rises to 45% – meaning the asset-rich living off gains can pay less tax than a nurse.

The Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts CGT will raise £15.2bn this year, rising to £23.5bn in 2028-29, but University of Warwick research has estimated equalising CGT rates with income tax could raise a further £16.9bn annually.

Sir Keir’s determination not to commit suggests a CGT raise remains firmly on the table when, and if, Rachel Reeves writes her first budget.

If it is introduced, she would not be the first new chancellor of the exchequer to raise taxes immediately after an election.

Resolution Foundation research shows, since 1992, every chancellor but one has raised taxes in their first two fiscal events after polling day by an average of £21bn.

Has Rishi Sunak delivered on his pledges?

If the challenge for Sir Keir is what he might do in office, the problem for Mr Sunak is what he has done.

Being prime minister of a party that’s been in power for 14 years leaves nowhere to hide, and Mr Sunak put a target on his back by setting five very specific pledges on which he can be judged back in January last year.

He promised to halve inflation, grow the economy, get debt falling, reduce NHS waiting lists and “stop the boats” by the year’s end.

On only one count, inflation, can he unambiguously be said to have succeeded, and his influence over even that is contested ground.

Inflation did fall from 11% to less than half that, and is currently 2.6%, but global factors, specifically falling energy prices, and the action of central banks were more influential than his decisions not to stoke domestic inflation.

Mr Sunak told Rigby inflation was now “back to normal” but that applies only to the rate of increase in prices, rather than the impact on costs.

Seen through that lens, prices are now around 20% higher than they were before the war in Ukraine, a new “normal” few people relish.

On growth, Mr Sunak was never explicit about which measure he would use. Growth in the final quarter of 2023 was down 0.3% on the previous one, but overall growth for the year was up by 0.1% – the narrowest of margins, but enough to claim success.

The rest of the list makes grim reading for the prime minister. Debt is not falling, though it is forecast to come down in five years, the measure that both Conservatives and Labour use to set their fiscal rules.

The NHS and immigration were even tougher areas for the PM, the statistical scorecard meshing with the lived reality of people experiencing under-pressure public services.

Waiting lists have risen dramatically, up to a peak of 7.4 million before falling back a little in the last few months. Unlike in the first TV debate, Mr Sunak did not try to argue that a small reduction amounted to a win.

On small boats he was more combative but on no measure can he be said to have stopped the crossings. In 2023, there were around 15,000 fewer crossings than in the year before. But this year to date, they’re up.

The broader immigration picture is also problematic. Every Conservative prime minister from Cameron to Truss promised to cut net migration to the tens of thousands and failed.

Mr Sunak set no target but has overseen the highest ever figure, more than 800,000 people last year, a number that appeared to stick with the audience in Grimsby.

Net migration is falling on the latest figures, and fewer visas are being granted after rules were tightened on the dependants of students and care workers, and salary thresholds for skilled workers increased.

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Investigation into Reeves not needed, says Starmer – after she apologises for rental ‘mistake’

Published

20 mins ago

October 30, 2025

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Investigation into Reeves not needed, says Starmer - after she apologises for rental 'mistake'

Sir Keir Starmer has dismissed calls for an investigation into his chancellor after she apologised for putting her family home up for rent without obtaining the necessary licence.

Rachel Reeves wrote to the prime minister to “sincerely” apologise for the “inadvertent error”, which was first reported by the Daily Mail.

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The newspaper said the chancellor rented her family home in Dulwich when she moved into 11 Downing Street, but was unaware she had to obtain a “selective licence” to do so.

Some London boroughs require private landlords to obtain a specific kind of licence if they are putting their property up for rent – including Southwark Council, where Ms Reeves’ home is listed.

The newspaper said she had now applied for a licence, but the Conservatives have called for an investigation.

A spokesperson for Ms Reeves said: “Since becoming chancellor, Rachel Reeves has rented out her family home through a lettings agency.

“She had not been made aware of the licensing requirement, but as soon as it was brought to her attention, she took immediate action and has applied for the licence.

“This was an inadvertent mistake and in the spirit of transparency, she has made the prime minister, the independent adviser on ministerial standards and the parliamentary commissioner for standards aware.”

What is a selective licence?

Southwark Council introduced “selective licences” across certain areas two years ago.

The scheme is designed to “improve safety, security and quality for people living in private rented homes”.

It aims to ensure renters who face persistent problems with damp, mould and outstanding repairs can get their issues resolved.

These licences apply to most private residential properties, last for five years, and cost £900.

Landlords need to provide documents including safety certificates for gas, electricity and fire alarms – along with floor plans and tenancy agreements.

Renting out a property without a licence can lead to civil penalties of up to £30,000 – as well as prosecution in some cases.

It is understood that Sir Laurie Magnus, the prime minister’s ethics adviser, has not launched an investigation into Ms Reeves.

Sir Keir said further investigation into the issue was “not necessary” after consulting Sir Laurie.

In a letter to Ms Reeves, he suggested her apology was a “sufficient resolution”.

Daisy Cooper, deputy leader of the Liberal Democrats, said the chancellor was adding to the government’s “list of scandals”.

“Just weeks before the budget, this risks seriously undermining confidence in this government and its ability to focus on the urgent tasks at hand,” she added.

The development comes weeks before Ms Reeves delivers her budget on 26 November.

She is rumoured to be considering a series of tax hikes, including a new tax on the sale of homes worth more than £500,000 to replace stamp duty.

Under the proposal, sellers, instead of buyers, would be responsible for paying the tax.

The chancellor is understood to be looking at an annual 1% charge on the amount a property’s value exceeds £2m – and a £10,000-a-year levy for homes worth £3m.

Another proposal would see capital gains tax (CGT) charged when someone sells their main home, based on the amount it has increased in value during ownership.

Reports suggest this would only be applied to the most expensive properties, with a possible threshold of £1.5m, which would affect about 120,000 homeowners.

Politics

Tories and Reform: From feud to love-in?

Published

20 mins ago

October 30, 2025

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Tories and Reform: From feud to love-in?

Is this the shape of things to come?

Are Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK about to bury the hatchet and work together?

Tory and Reform MPs joined forces to back a Commons move by Mr Farage to withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights.

It was the biggest and most high-profile display of co-operation between these hitherto sworn enemies seen in parliament so far.

Could it be a pointer to some sort of arrangement or pact in opposition to Labour, the Liberal Democrats and other left-leaning parties after the next election?

The issue that brought about the new apparent love-in between the feuding parties on the right of UK politics was a 10-minute rule bill moved by Mr Farage.

Surrounded by opponents from the Lib Dems and SNP, Mr Farage was shouted down throughout his speech, before the Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey launched an angry onslaught opposing his bill.

Of course, withdrawing from the ECHR is an issue on which the Conservatives and Reform UK agree. But quite often the big parties ignore Commons motions moved by small parties.

Not this time. Voting was 96 MPs in favour and 154 against Mr Farage’s ECHR Withdrawal Bill, with 63 Labour MPs, 64 Liberal Democrats and Jeremy Corbyn’s band of 10 independents voting against.

Kemi Badenoch led 87 Conservative MPs into the Aye lobby alongside Mr Farage, his Reform UK colleagues Richard Tice, Lee Anderson and Danny Kruger, who was a teller, and a few Northern Ireland MPs.

The Conservative MPs backing Mr Farage’s motion included most of the shadow cabinet. The Tory grandee Sir John Whittingdale was the Reform UK leader’s other teller.

After the vote, Mr Farage thanked former cabinet ministers Suella Braverman and Sir Gavin Williamson and – most significantly – shadow justice secretary Robert Jenrick for co-signing his bill.

While Mrs Badenoch has publicly ruled out a pact with Reform UK, Mr Jenrick told Sky News during the Tory conference earlier this month it was “not a priority”.

The breakdown of the voting numbers tells us that without the 63 Labour MPs voting against, Mr Farage would have won the vote, although victory on a ten-minute rule bill is purely symbolic.

And indeed, until a last-minute plea by pro-Europe Labour MPs led by Stella Creasy, the Labour leadership’s plan had been to ignore the vote and abstain.

But the party’s high command is understood to have been warned that, purely symbolic or not, allowing Farage’s bill to be passed would send a terrible signal to the UK’s European neighbours.

And so the new government chief whip Jonathan Reynolds relented and ruled that while ministers should abstain and not take part, backbenchers could vote against Mr Farage if they wished.

Ed Davey later claimed the credit for defeating Mr Farage, however. “We just defeated Nigel Farage’s bill in parliament to tear up people’s rights and withdraw from the ECHR,” he said.

“Farage wants to do away with the Britain Churchill built and turn it into a version of Trump’s America. We stopped him.”

But could this vote signal that some form of coalition politics may be on the way back in the Commons, with Labour and the Liberal Democrats v the Conservatives and Reform UK?

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‘Put them in camps and deport them’: Sky News gets rare access inside Reform UK meeting

Published

20 mins ago

October 30, 2025

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“Put them in camps and deport them.”

That is the view on illegal immigrants of Faten Hameed, who has passed the vetting stage and is now hoping to stand for Reform UK in next year’s Scottish parliamentary elections.

Ms Hameed, who moved to Scotland from Iraq 30 years ago, believes the country is now “drained” and says asylum seekers “shouldn’t be here”.

She is one of about 1,000 members of Reform’s branch in Glasgow, with the party attempting to come from nothing to become Holyrood’s second largest.

Reform rarely opens up, with the party often keeping events quiet and relying on encrypted WhatsApp groups to coordinate their efforts.

But we’ve been given exclusive access to a branch meeting inside a small bowling club.

The group’s discussion is raw and unfiltered.

‘Natives first’

Grant Caldwell didn’t mince his words.

“I am sick of the same old politics,” he said.

Asked what he wanted changed, he said: “I am more concerned about the social housing aspect from native people.

“There is a lot of homeless Scots that aren’t getting a bed or a homeless accommodation – to suit the migrants.

“Natives first, I think.

“Obviously, I don’t mind helping people out, but we have to prioritise our own people first.”

Nodding along beside him is Niall.

A former UKIP member, he tells me Reform now feels like home.

We then meet Audrey Dempsey, who quit as a Labour councillor after being accused of making racist remarks.

She now represents Reform in Glasgow.

“If they [migrants] were arriving in the country, and they were fitting in with our culture and values and learning our way of life then that would be more than welcome,” she says.

Asked what she meant, Ms Dempsey says: “Well, instead of trying to inflict their culture on other people here like Sharia law. They are trying to bring that here.”

Questioned on who she believed was introducing Sharia law and where, she said: “The asylum seekers. Some of the asylum seekers. The legal migrants. Absolutely.

“Do you not have conversations in the street? You just have to take a walk through Glasgow city centre on any given day. I think by the line of questioning that you haven’t, if you are so shocked by this.”

Asked for evidence to substantiate her claims, Ms Dempsey said there was “stacks of evidence online”.

And questioned if she believed “they are coming to take over,” the Reform councillor said: “I don’t quite know what I believe at this moment.”

Ms Dempsey said there had been “too many” crimes involving asylum seekers in Glasgow, but was unable to provide any specific details “off the top of my head right now”.

‘It’s a fix’

At another table I am introduced to retiree Gordon Miller, who is now the treasurer of Reform’s Glasgow operation.

He accused the SNP of rigging the system when I told him polls suggested John Swinney’s party could win again and enter their third decade in power.

He said: “There is nothing like a bit of gerrymandering to make sure the constituencies fit your profiles.

“It has been a fix for donkey’s years, and the facts speak for themselves. They keep changing the borders so regularly.”

A review of changes to constituency boundaries has been submitted to Scottish ministers for approval.

Reform plans to stand a candidate in each Scottish constituency next May.

Those hoping to be successful are currently going through a vetting process and “assessment centres” and mock interviews.

One of those wannabe MSPs is Paul Bennie, an army veteran turned ambulance worker who joined Reform UK a year ago.

“Politics is bust,” he says. “We do need Reform. We need to change the way we do politics and change people’s futures for the better.”

‘Put them in camps’

Ms Hameed has been part of three political parties since 2020.

She was once a Labour general election candidate before switching to the Conservatives and recently defected to Reform.

The Scottish Iraqi Association chairwoman has passed the official vetting stages to stand for Reform in May.

She tells us that immigration is one of her top two priorities.

Asked if Reform would deport anyone, she said: “For illegal immigration, yes. Put them in camps and deport them. They shouldn’t be here.”

Questioned on whether she was calling for the establishment of deportation camps in the UK, Ms Hameed said: “Why not? Other countries have done it.”

When pushed on where camps should be set up, she said: “It is for the government to decide”.

“They would be in the UK as the boats are coming to us,” she says. “They are all seeking asylum. Why are they here? Why?”

She denied making policy up as she goes along, saying: “It’s not a matter of what is Reform policy, it is a matter of what is required. The country is drained.”

Reform a ‘serious competitor’ in Scotland

Britain’s leading polling expert, Professor Sir John Curtice, told Sky News there was a “very clear race” between Reform and Labour for second place in Scotland.

He said: “The rise of Reform is a remarkable story. They are a serious competitor for becoming the principal opposition party at Holyrood.”

A Survation poll in May suggested Nigel Farage’s party will beat the other unionist parties in 2026, although by September Labour had edged ahead by two points.

Mr Farage previously told me he would not be standing in the Holyrood election, and the party would have a bespoke leader north of the border.

Thomas Kerr, a Glasgow councillor who defected from the Conservatives to Reform in January, did not deny he would throw his hat in the ring to be the Scottish party chief.

He told us that the potential candidates we met going “off-script” was “problem we are working with”.

But he insisted vetting procedures have been strengthened and “every candidate we will see standing for Reform UK will be top-notch”.

Responding to the claims made in this report, SNP leader and First Minister John Swinney said he was “very concerned”.

“Sharia law is not taking over Scotland, and I find the idea of deportation camps just utterly repugnant,” he said.

“I think what you are sharing with me reinforces my view that the politics of Nigel Farage are repulsive, and Scotland should have nothing to do with it.”

The Reform UK party in London told Sky News it had nothing further to add in response to this report.