After a very strong start to 2024, during which the UK economy achieved its strongest growth for two years, things stalled again in April.
That the economy flatlined during April was no surprise, though, given a couple of factors.
One was the early timing of Easter, which will have led some consumer spending that would normally have taken place in April to be brought forward to March.
The other, more pertinent factor, was the weather.
The Office for National Statistics notes in its release that rainfall during April was 155% higher than the long-term average – making this the wettest April in more than a decade.
The arrival of Storm Kathleen at the end of the first week of April brought heavy rain to Scotland, Wales, parts of Northern Ireland and the West Country. In some parts of the country, things were even worse, with Edinburgh experiencing its second wettest April in 188 years. The last couple of weeks of April were also notably cooler than usual.
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That all appears to have had a bearing on a wide range of sectors in the economy, including retail, construction – which was particularly afflicted by high winds – and pubs, restaurants and cafes.
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The good news for the prime minister, such as it is, is that during the three months to the end of April, the economy grew by 0.7%. That represents a modest degree of momentum being carried forward from the first three months of the year and is still a pretty reasonable clip given the recent past.
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The better news is that things will probably have picked up in May. Survey data for May, most notably the forward-looking purchasing managers index (PMI) survey, suggests that the services sector – which makes up just over three quarters of UK economic activity – continued to expand during the month while manufacturing looks set to have returned to growth as well.
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1:44
UK economy flatlines in April
The PMI reading for May for manufacturing was the best since July 2022. Other measures of activity pointing to stronger growth during May include the data published by the British Retail Consortium, which pointed to a month-on-month increase in retail sales, helped by solid trading over the first Bank Holiday weekend of the month.
That should be no surprise: the headline rate of inflation is falling – albeit not sufficiently rapidly to convince the Bank of England to lower interest rates yet – while the latest reductions in national insurance will have shown up in pay packets at the end of April and may have served to inject a little more confidence among consumers. At the same time, as shown by the wages data published on Tuesday this week, average earnings continue to grow more strongly than the headline rate of inflation.
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12:28
Frazer: Economy has turned a corner
Add to that the expected boost to the economy from the European football championships and the Olympic Games and consumer spending ought to continue growing during June and July. Manufacturing, meanwhile, also looks set to continue its recent pick-up in activity as the UK’s main trading partners in Europe and the United States also see a recovery in demand.
As Sanjay Raja, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank, put it in a note to clients this morning: “The flat April print will likely be temporary. And moreover, we continue to see GDP maintaining its upward momentum through the rest of the year. Our updated models point to GDP growth of 0.3-0.4% quarter on quarter in the second quarter of 2024.
“To be sure, a cyclical recovery is underway. A firming in real disposable incomes will likely give way to firming household consumption.”
Mr Raja thinks the economy will grow by 0.8% this year.
Meanwhile, an interest rate cut from the Bank of England is coming. It is possible, given the uptick in unemployment during the three months to the end of April, that the Bank of England might have been tempted to follow the lead of the European Central Bank and cut interest rates next week were it not for the general election.
As it is, a rate cut in August now looks highly likely.
All of this should continue to keep growth ticking over during the summer and into the autumn.
It all makes Rishi Sunak’s decision to go to the country early increasingly peculiar.
The chancellor has confirmed she is considering “changes” to ISAs – and said there has been too much focus on “risk” in members of the public investing.
In her second annual Mansion House speech to the financial sector, Rachel Reeves said she recognised “differing views” over the popular tax-free savings accounts, in which savers can currently put up to £20,000 a year.
She was reportedly considering reducing the threshold to as low as £4,000 a year, in a bid to encourage people to put money into stocks and shares instead and boost the economy.
However the chancellor has shelved any immediate planned changes after fierce backlash from building societies and consumer groups.
In her speech to key industry figures on Tuesday evening, Ms Reeves said: “I will continue to consider further changes to ISAs, engaging widely over the coming months and recognising that despite the differing views on the right approach, we are united in wanting better outcomes for both savers and for the UK economy.”
She added: “For too long, we have presented investment in too negative a light, quick to warn people of the risks, without giving proper weight to the benefits.”
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6:36
Rachel Reeves’s fiscal dilemma
Ms Reeves’s speech, the first major one since the welfare bill climbdown two weeks ago, appeared to encourage regulators to focus less on risks and more on the benefits of investing in things like the stock market and government bonds (loans issued by states to raise funds with an interest rate paid in return).
She welcomed action by the financial regulator to review risk warning rules and the campaign to promote retail investment, which the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) is launching next year.
“Our tangled system of financial advice and guidance has meant that people cannot get the right support to make decisions for themselves”, Ms Reeves told the event in London.
Last year, Ms Reeves said post-financial crash regulation had “gone too far” and set a course for cutting red tape.
On Tuesday, she said she would announce a package of City changes, including a new competitive framework for a part of the insurance industry and a regulatory regime for asset management.
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4:21
Reeves is ‘totally’ up for the job
In response to Ms Reeves’s address, shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride said: “Rachel Reeves should have used her speech this evening to rule out massive tax rises on businesses and working people. The fact that she didn’t should send a shiver down the spine of taxpayers across the country.”
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The governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, also spoke at the Mansion House event and said Donald Trump’s taxes on US imports would slow the economy and trade imbalances should be addressed.
“Increasing tariffs creates the risk of fragmenting the world economy, and thereby reducing activity”, he said.
The taxpayer is to help drive the switch to non-polluting vehicles through a new grant of up to £3,750, but some of the cheapest electric cars are to be excluded.
The Department for Transport (DfT) said a £650m fund was being made available for the Electric Car Grant, which is due to get into gear from Wednesday.
Users of the scheme – the first of its kind since the last Conservative government scrapped grants for new electric vehicles three years ago – will be able to secure discounts based on the “sustainability” of the car.
It will apply only to vehicles with a list price of £37,000 or below – with only the greenest models eligible for the highest grant.
Buyers of so-called ‘Band two’ vehicles can receive up to £1,500.
The qualification criteria includes a recognition of a vehicle’s carbon footprint from manufacture to showroom so UK-produced EVs, costing less than £37,000, would be expected to qualify for the top grant.
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It is understood that Chinese-produced EVs – often the cheapest in the market – would not.
Image: BYD electric vehicles before being loaded onto a ship in Lianyungang, China. Pic: Reuters
DfT said 33 new electric car models were currently available for less than £30,000.
The government has been encouraged to act as sales of new electric vehicles are struggling to keep pace with what is needed to meet emissions targets.
Challenges include the high prices for electric cars when compared to conventionally powered models.
At the same time, consumer and business budgets have been squeezed since the 2022 cost of living crisis – and households and businesses are continuing to feel the pinch to this day.
Another key concern is the state of the public charging network.
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3:29
The Chinese electric car rivalling Tesla
Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said: “This EV grant will not only allow people to keep more of their hard-earned money – it’ll help our automotive sector seize one of the biggest opportunities of the 21st century.
“And with over 82,000 public charge points now available across the UK, we’ve built the infrastructure families need to make the switch with confidence.”
The Government has pledged to ban the sale of new fully petrol or diesel cars and vans from 2030 but has allowed non-plug in hybrid sales to continue until 2025.
It is hoped the grants will enable the industry to meet and even exceed the current zero emission vehicle mandate.
Under the rules, at least 28% of new cars sold by each manufacturer in the UK this year must be zero emission.
The figure stood at 21.6% during the first half of the year.
The car industry has long complained that it has had to foot a multi-billion pound bill to woo buyers for electric cars through “unsustainable” discounting.
Mike Hawes, chief executive of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, said the grants sent a “clear signal to consumers that now is the time to switch”.
He went on: “Rapid deployment and availability of this grant over the next few years will help provide the momentum that is essential to take the EV market from just one in four today, to four in five by the end of the decade.”
But the Conservatives questioned whether taxpayers should be footing the bill.
Shadow transport secretary Gareth Bacon said: “Last week, the Office for Budget Responsibility made clear the transition to EVs comes at a cost, and this scheme only adds to it.
“Make no mistake: more tax rises are coming in the autumn.”
A leading financier and Conservative Party donor is among the contenders vying to chair Channel 4, the state-owned broadcaster.
Sky News has learnt from Whitehall sources that Wol Kolade has been shortlisted to replace Sir Ian Cheshire at the helm of the company.
Mr Kolade, who has donated hundreds of thousands of pounds to Tory coffers, is said by Whitehall insiders to be one of a handful of remaining candidates for the role.
A recommendation from Ofcom, the media regulator, to Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy about its recommendation for the Channel 4 chairmanship is understood to be imminent.
Mr Kolade, who heads the private equity firm Livingbridge, has held non-executive roles including a seat on the board of NHS Improvement.
He declined to comment when contacted by Sky News on Monday.
His candidacy pits him against rivals including Justin King, the former J Sainsbury chief executive, who last week stepped down as chairman of Ovo Energy.
Debbie Wosskow, an existing Channel 4 non-executive director who has applied for the chair role, is also said by government sources to have made it to the shortlist.
Sir Ian stepped down earlier this year after just one term, having presided over a successful attempt to thwart privatisation by the last Tory government.
The Channel 4 chairmanship is currently held on an interim basis by Dawn Airey, the media industry executive who has occupied top jobs at companies including ITV, Channel 5, and Yahoo!.
The race to lead the state-owned broadcaster’s board has acquired additional importance since the resignation of Alex Mahon, its long-serving chief executive.
It has since been reported that Alex Burford, another Channel 4 non-executive director and the boss of Warner Records UK, was interested in replacing Ms Mahon.
Ms Mahon, who was a vocal opponent of Channel 4’s privatisation, is leaving to join Superstruct, a private equity-owned live entertainment company.
The appointment of a new chair is expected to take place by the autumn, with the chosen candidate expected to lead the recruitment of Ms Mahon’s successor.
The Department for Culture, Media and Sport declined to comment on the recruitment process.