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The head of OPEC said Thursday the world will need to invest in fossil fuels for decades to come in order to prevent an energy shortage, dismissing predictions that oil demand will peak in the near future.

OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said oil demand will grow by 25 million barrels per day in the developing world through 2045, with China and India alone contributing 10 million bpd, as billions of people need access to basic services such as electricity, cooking gas and transportation.

“Those that dismiss this reality are sowing the seeds for future energy shortfalls and increased volatility, and opening the door to a world where the gap between the ‘energy haves’ and ‘energy have nots’ grows even further,” Al Ghais said in a statement.

The OPEC chief called for “continued oil industry investment, today, tomorrow, and many decades into the future given the products derived from crude oil are essential for our daily lives.”

OPEC’s predictions of future demand stand in stark contrast to the International Energy Agency, whose membership is primarily developed economies in North America, Europe and Northeast Asia.

The IEA warned Wednesday the world will face a massive surplus of oil in the coming years as production increases while demand slows and ultimately peaks by the end of the decade. Oil supply capacity will rise to 114 million per day by 2030, 8 million barrels more than global demand, according to the IEA.

While oil demand will remain strong in Asia in the coming years, those gains will be offset by the adoption of electric cars, fuel efficiency and the declining use of oil for electricity generation in the Middle East, according to the IEA.

The looming surplus threatens to upend OPEC’s efforts to support prices and will challenge the rapid growth of the U.S. shale industry, according to the IEA. Oil companies should consider adjusting business strategies to prepare for the changes, IEA chief Fatih Birol said in a statement.

OPEC’s Al Ghais rejected those predictions as “dangerous, especially for consumers and could lead to unprecedented volatility.”

Helima Croft, global head of commodities strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said everything would have break perfectly in terms of clean energy subsidies for the IEA’s predictions to come true.

Gains made by the far right in the European Union’s recent parliamentary elections and a potential Republican victory in the November U.S. elections are headwinds for the energy transition, Croft said.

“I’m just not sure that we’re facing the type of policy environment that could see this being realized, before we even talk about the demand side of the situation,” Croft said in an interview on CNBC’s “Last Call” Wednesday.

Robert McNally, president of the consulting firm Rapidan Energy, sees a shortage in transportation fuel by 2028 if more refineries are not built.

“I see no evidence of this imminent peak demand,” McNally said on “Last Call.” “Efficiency gains in cars aren’t rising fast enough and EVs can’t come fast enough.”

“We’re going to be really tight,” McNally said.

Deutsche Bank and Citi, however, see OPEC coming under pressure in the coming years. OPEC+ announced plan to roll as much as 2.5 million barrels per day of oil back onto the market from October through September 2025.

It is “inconceivable that the market could absorb anything close” to that amount of oil, Deutsche analyst Michael Hsueh told clients in a note last week.

Citi analysts see a substantial oil surplus in 2025 as production keeps growing in North America, Brazil and Guyana, while demand slows due to energy efficiency improvements and electric vehicle adoption. The price of global benchmark Brent could drop to $60 per barrel next year as a consequence, according to Citi.

 “Without supply disruptions, OPEC+ looks hard-pressed to return oil to market, without also accepting a lower price range,” Citi’s commodity analyst told clients in a note this week.

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U.S. crude oil falls below $60 a barrel to lowest since 2021 on tariff-fueled recession fears

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U.S. crude oil falls below  a barrel to lowest since 2021 on tariff-fueled recession fears

A view shows disused oil pump jacks at the Airankol oil field operated by Caspiy Neft in the Atyrau Region, Kazakhstan April 2, 2025. 

Pavel Mikheyev | Reuters

U.S. oil prices dropped below $60 a barrel on Sunday on fears President Donald Trump’s global tariffs would push the U.S., and maybe the world, into a recession.

Futures tied to U.S. West Texas intermediate crude fell more than 3% to $59.74 on Sunday night. The move comes after back-to-back 6% declines last week. WTI is now at the lowest since April 2021.

Worries are mounting that tariffs could lead to higher prices for businesses, which could lead to a slowdown in economic activity that would ultimately hurt demand for oil.

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Oil futures, 5 years

The tariffs, which are set to take effect this week, “would likely push the U.S. and possibly global economy into recession this year,” according to JPMorgan. The firm on Thursday raised its odds of a recession this year to 60% following the tariff rollout, up from 40%.

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What EV sales slump? Illinois’ EV sales outpace the nation by 4:1

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What EV sales slump? Illinois' EV sales outpace the nation by 4:1

Fueled by incentives from the Illinois EPA and the state’s largest utility company, new EV registrations nearly quadrupled the 12% first-quarter increase in EV registrations nationally – and there are no signs the state is slowing down.

Despite the dramatic slowdown of Tesla’s US deliveries, sales of electric vehicles overall have perked up in recent months, with Illinois’ EV adoption rate well above the Q1 uptick nationally. Crain’s Chicago Business reports that the number of new EVs registered across the state totaled 9,821 January through March, compared with “just” 6,535 EVs registered in the state during the same period in 2024.

Those numbers represent more than 50% growth in EV registrations – far beyond the expected 12% first-quarter increase nationally being projected by Cox Automotive. (!)

What’s going on in Illinois?

File:Illinois Governor J. B. Pritzker (33167937268).jpg
Illinois Governor JB Pritzker at the Chicago Auto Show; by Ray Cunningham.

While President Trump and Elmo were running for re-election, they campaigned on the threat promise of canceling the $7,500 federal tax credit for EVs. Along with California Governor Gavin Newsom, Illinois’ Governor JB Pritzker made countermoves – launching a $4,000 rebate for new electric cars and up to $1,500 for the purchase of a new electric motorcycle.

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At the same time, the state’s largest utility, ComEd, launched a $90 million EV incentive program featuring a new Point of Purchase initiative to deliver instant discounts to qualifying business and public sector customers who make the switch to electric vehicles. That program has driven a surge in Class 3-6 medium duty commercial EVs, which are eligible fro $20-30,000 in utility rebates on top of federal tax credits and other incentives (Class 1-2 EVs are eligible for up to $7,500).

We covered the launch of those incentives when the program was announced at Chicago Drives Electric last year, but the message here is simple: incentives work.

SOURCES: Chicago Business, Ray Cunningham; featured image by the author.

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XCMG launches XE215EV battery swap electric excavator ahead of bauma

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XCMG launches XE215EV battery swap electric excavator ahead of bauma

The electric construction equipment experts at XCMG just released a new, 25 ton electric crawler excavator ahead of bauma 2025 – and they have their eye on the global urban construction, mine operations, and logistical material handling markets.

Powered by a high-capacity 400 kWh lithium iron phosphate battery capable of delivering up to 8 hours of continuous operation, the XE215EV electric excavator promises uninterrupted operation at a lower cost of ownership and with even less downtime than its diesel counterparts.

XCMG is delivering on part of that reduced downtime promise with the lower maintenance and easier repair needs of electric equipment, and delivering on the rest of it with lickety-quick DC fast charging that can recharge the machine’s massive battery in 1.5-2 hours … but that’s not the slick bit. The XCMG XE125EV can be powered up without leaving the job site thanks to its BYD battery swap technology.

We first covered XCMG and its battery swap technology back in January, and covered similar battery-swap tech being developed by MOOG Construction offshoot ZQUIP, as well – but while XCMG’s battery tech has been in production for several years, it’s still not widely known about in the West (even within the industry).

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XCMG showed off its latest electric equipment at the December 2024 bauma China, including an updated version of its of its 85-ton autonomous electric mining truck that features a fully cab-less design – meaning there isn’t even a place for an operator to sit, let alone operate. And that’s too bad, because what operator wouldn’t want to experience an electric truck putting down 1070 hp more than 16,000 lb-ft of torque!?

Easy in, easy out

XCMG battery swap crane; via Etrucks New Zealand.

The best part? All of the company’s heavy equipment assets – from excavators to terminal tractors to dump trucks and wheel loaders – all use the same 400 kWh BYD battery packs, Milwaukee tool style. That means an equipment fleet can utilize x number of vehicles with a fraction of the total battery capacity and material needs of other asset brands. That’s not just a smart use of limited materials, it’s a smarter use of energy.

You can check out all the XE215EV’s specs at this tear sheet, and get an in-person look at the Chinese company’s latest electric excavator this week in Munich, Germany.

SOURCE | IMAGES: XCMG.

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